South Florida vs. Tulsa
Point-Spread: Tulsa -13.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Tulsa 36 – USF 22.5
Weather: 27 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Brian Battie ($6,400) Three straight 100-yard rushing performances for the 165-pound Battie who saw a season-high 26 carries vs. SMU on Saturday. I think USF might be down another starting quarterback now due to injury, but don’t believe that should matter this week for Battie as he faces the 122nd ranked rush defense in Tulsa.
Fade – QB Byrum Brown ($5,300) The 3-star freshman will make his first career start in place of the injured Katravis Marsh. Brown did step in briefly at the end of the SMU game last week and wound up throwing a touchdown in garbage time. Brown only had a handful of FBS offers in the recruiting cycle, but his senior numbers from HS were gaudy, completing 68% of his passes with 43 touchdowns, while also rushing for 1,182 yards and 13 more scores on the ground. Tulsa has struggled with dual-threat QBs this season but have been good for the most part on the back end, ranking 27th in success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Yusuf Terry ($3,000) The former Baylor transfer has done very little in the last two years since arriving at USF, catching all of seven passes this season and just two in the last handful of games. That said, Terry is third in routes run and offensive snaps behind the top two receivers in the last two weeks, so he’s on the field quite a bit. Longest of longshot plays, strictly because he’s out there, not because of effectiveness.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Weaver ($6,700) Regardless of who’s been at QB, Weaver continues to be one of the more underrated players in the country. He’ll go over 100 targets for the season on Friday, and has posted six touchdowns in the last five games. His 12.5 aDOT is intriguing against a Tulsa defense that is 53rd nationally, giving up 20 plays of 25 yards or more, and are 127th in explosiveness allowed.
Best of the Rest – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($5,300) Second on the team in routes run, targets (47), receptions (26) and touchdowns (3).
Injury Notes – QB Katravis Marsh is out for the season.
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – WR Keylon Stokes ($7,600) Despite nothing to play for with a 3-7 record, it is senior night and Tulsa should be celebrating one of their best in WR Keylon Stokes who hit the 1,000-yard receiving mark last week, the second time he’s done so in his career. Averaging 9.2 targets per game, facing a defense that is allowing 22.2 FPPG to opposing WR1s on the year. I suspect Stokes will go out with a big performance in his final home game.
Fade – WR Malachai Jones ($4,300) After a hot start to the year, Jones has fallen off both in targets and his playing time has diminished from October on. Against Memphis last week, Jones only saw 39% of the offensive snaps despite finishing with nine targets. Prior to that, Jones didn’t have more than three targets in any of the previous four games. I’d look to the other three Tulsa receivers first.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Braylon Braxton ($7,300) This might be a two-gamer where we can get away with only playing one quarterback on the slate (Mayden). Still think I’d want some shares of Braxton despite coming off a poor performance a week ago vs. Memphis, scoring just seven fantasy points. USF is allowing the fifth most FPPG to opposing QB1s this season at 33.1. Six different quarterbacks have scored 25+ fantasy points against the Bulls. Three QBs have scored 40+ fantasy points or more.
Best of the Rest – RB Deneric Prince ($6,700) Was quite last week with just nine carries, but nobody played well in a dismal performance against Memphis. Very favorable matchup this week against one of the worst rush defenses in college football where USF is 125th in yards allowed, 130th in rush play success rate and giving up 24.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s – the third most in the country. My guess is the 1-9 USF defense won’t have much tackling motivation in below 30-degree temps on Friday.
Injury Notes – Don’t know if it’s officially been announced or not, but I would not expect Davis Brin to play on Friday.
San Diego State vs. New Mexico
Point-Spread: SDSU -14.5
O/U Total: 37.5
Implied Score: SDSU 26 – NM 11.5
Weather: 36 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
San Diego State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Mayden ($8,200) Amazing what happens to a team when Braxton Burmeister is NOT your quarterback. Since inserting Mayden as the starting QB, the Aztecs are now 4-1 in their last five games, averaging 24.8 PPG. In the first five weeks? Just 18.4. With the other team’s QB situations on this slate being in flux, Mayden is essentially a lock here.
Fade – RBs not named Jaylon Armstead. See below on our Armstead thoughts, but we saw four different RBs get between 10-15 offensive snaps last week vs. San Jose State. Armstead doubled the amount of snaps and carries of the next closest RB.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaylon Armstead ($4,000) The numbers haven’t been overwhelming, but San Diego State is clearly giving some of the underclassmen a look in the backfield with many of the veterans underperforming. Armstead, a 3-star sophomore, has seen double-digit carries in each of the last two weeks with the coaches getting an extended look not just for this season, but for next. SDSU has struggled to run the football for much of the year, but should have their way with a New Mexico defense that is 112th in rush play success rate. Game script also works in Armstead’s favor here as a two-touchdown favorite.
Pivot Play – WR Mekhi Shaw ($4,600) Probably the third option in the SDSU passing game, but has come on in the last five games with 24 of his 31 targets for the season coming in that span. Two of the three highest fantasy point totals from opposing WR1s against New Mexico this season have come from the slot. 87% of Shaw’s offensive snaps this season have come from the slot.
Best of the Rest – WR Tyrell Shavers ($5,200) and WR Jesse Matthews ($4,900) The only other wide receiver besides this duo and Shaw to see any snaps the last two games has been Brionne Penny. Shavers, Matthews and Shaw accounted for every wide receiver offensive snap vs. San Jose State. If this game gets out of hand, I’d imagine we see some other receivers here get reps, but the starters have been established.
Injury Notes – n/a
New Mexico:
PSA – I haven’t watched or given a single thought to New Mexico football since about the second week of September. And the 12.5-point implied total is exactly why. The Lobos 131st in total offense, 129th in scoring offense and 127th in passing offense. As of writing this, prices aren’t out so maybe a WR like Duece Jones is an option at $3k as he’s played over 90% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks. Realistically, RB Nathaniel Jones is the only playable option here, and saying that is a stretch. Had 146 yards on 21 carries two weeks ago vs. Utah State but faces a San Diego State front that is 9th in rush play success rate and allowed just 14.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this year. Don’t see New Mexico having much success on the ground.
