Wake Forest @ Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -4.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Wake Forest:
As good as Sam Hartman has been this year, you simply cannot play him at $10,300. And as dismal of a season as Clemson has had, the Tigers are still pretty good on defense, particularly against the pass where they’re allowing just 17.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s, have given up just nine total passing touchdowns in 10 games, and 13th in Pass Play Success Rate. Working in the favor of Hartman is potential game script as the line has somehow moved even further towards the Clemson side, now 4.5-point favorites. Working against Hartman will be a depleted receiving corps that is likely to be without Jaquarii Roberson and Ke’Shawn Williams, though the Deacs still have plenty of talent leftover at the position. A.T. Perry saw a boatload of targets vs. NC State once Roberson went down – 19 to be exact – though only converted into five receptions. With Roberson and Williams out, that means Taylor Morin will be inserted into the coveted slot role which he’s much better suited for at his size and with his shiftiness. As the sure-fire No. 2 option with Hartman throwing him the rock at $4,200, even with Clemson’s secondary, I think he enters the mix. Former Stanford transfer Donald Stewart will start opposite Perry as the WR3, with freshman Jahmal Banks in the rotation as a fourth option. Clemson is allowing just 12.9 FPPG to opposing WR1s and 8.0 FPPG to WR2s this season so probably a stay-away spot outside of maybe Morin. If Christian Beal-Smith is out for the second-straight week, maybe we give Justice Ellison a look at $4,300 after rushing for two touchdowns vs. NC State, but the Tigers are giving up just 11.4 FPPG to RB1s – ninth best in the country. As good as Clemson is against the pass, they’re even better at stopping the run, ranked 2nd in Rush Play Success Rate.
Clemson:
Vegas is projecting 30 points this week from the Clemson offense, and at first glance I was in disbelief, but they have reached that mark in the last three games. Let’s start with the injuries. Justyn Ross is out for the season, and Joe Ngata is out this week. That means we’ll see a starting trio of Beaux Collins, Dacari Collins and E.J. Williams on Saturday who combined for 12 receptions on 25 total target with Dacari, who took the place of Ross, seeing 12 of those passes directed his way. I know Williams is the most experienced of the trio and is min priced, but if we’re assuming the Clemson offense plays the way it has majority of the season – meaning two outside receivers getting most of the target share – than the Collins’ bros are the best bet here. For better or worse, mostly worse this season, D.J. Uiagalelei will likely start on Saturday as he’s had a good week of practice per head coach Dabo Swinney and Taisun Phommachanh being doubtful. I understand the implied team total and that Wake Forest is allowing over 30 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, but if you couldn’t get it done against UConn, why should we believe its possible this week? Better options in DJU’s price range that I will completely fade him.
Running back is where things get mildly interesting as both Will Shipley and Kobe Pace are expected back this week after being held out for precautionary reasons. WF is 120th in Rush Play Success Rate, 115th in Rush Play Explosiveness defensively, and are allowing over 19 FPPG this season to RB1s. Shipley probably doesn’t project well enough at 16.9 fantasy points to make him worth considering for me here, though the matchup is good. His 47-yard performance against Louisville with just one target in the passing game has me shying away with some equal-to-better plays at cheap prices. Clemson got DJU, Kobe Pace and Phil Mafah involved in the running game so I’m unsure they’re giving the FR a full workload.
Florida State @ Boston College
Point-Spread: BC -1.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Weather: 44 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Florida State:
The one and only true option here for Florida State is quarterback Jordan Travis. Boston College does field a pretty good pass defense, ranked No. 1 in the ACC and allowing just 20.2 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. But we aren’t interested in Travis for his throwing ability. Minimal salary bump to at just $7k this week despite scoring 31 fantasy points against Miami, and we have Travis projected at 25.7 fantasy points which would pay off that salary. While still leaves some to be desired as a passer, Travis has made significant strides this year, completing over 64 percent of his throws and has improved his yards/att average. As we mentioned in last week’s writeup, Travis being in the lineup probably eliminates both Jashaun Corbin and Treshaun Ward from the player pool as we’re seeing three players all get noteworthy volume in the run game. Corbin is only averaging around 11 carries and 60 rushing yards in games that Travis either starts or sees significant game action. Can’t roster him at $6,800. Extreme fade of the Florida State receivers – nobody is playable there.
Boston College:
Venture to guess which school has allowed the 8th most fantasy points in the country to opposing QBs this season? That would be your Florida State Seminoles. Venture to guess which starting quarterback returned from injury, scored five touchdowns, and is STILL listed at $4,500 on DraftKings? That would be Phil Jurkovec. Now, we’re all thinking the same thing, right? Hot damn we can create some amazing lineups with Jurkovec as the SFLex. I will throw out one area of concern here – aside from nearly everyone also rostering him in all DFS formats. Florida State’s defensive line is playing at a near-elite level right now with three or more sacks in each of the last four games. Luckily, BC’s offensive line holds up well, ranking 23rd in PFF Pass Blocking grades and have given up just 17 sacks this season which is tied for 39th in the country. Tyler Van Dyke got there last week for Miami, nearing 30 fantasy points, but we saw the struggles he had initially against the Seminoles as a pass rush can be a QBs worst nightmare.
Mixed results from the FSU run defense in 2021. Started hot, then gave up 200+ to both Syracuse and North Carolina in back-to-back weeks, and now are back to their early-season form, holding Miami to under 50 yards as a team. Overall, the Seminoles are 18th in Rush Play Success Rate this season, and this is a marginal BC run game that is 54th in Rush Play Success, 112th in Line Yards and 119th in Stuff Rate. RB1 Pat Garwo is a decent play at $5,800 as he’s seeing volume – 20+ carries in each of the last two weeks – but the matchup isn’t great. I don’t see a ton of upside here with a projection at just 14 fantasy points. Really a shame we haven’t gotten “this” Zay Flowers for the entirety of the season, catching two touchdown passes last week vs. Georgia Tech. You just see the influence Jurkovec has on Flowers’ production and this offense as a whole. If PPF’s matchups are correct, and its cornerback Travis Jay lining up opposite Flowers, it should be a big day for the junior receiver as Jay is FSU lowest-rated starter on defense. Jaden Williams and Jaelen Gill round out the starting trio who are on the field over 70 percent of the offensive snaps.
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
Point-Spread: Okla -3.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 20 mph winds
Iowa State:
Not a lot of secrets as to where the ball is going with the Iowa State offense. Breece Hall is matchup-proof, averaging 29.7 FPPG and has hit 20 fantasy points in all but two games this season. As the highest priced RB on the slate, we need 30+ to make salary and that’s happened just once this season by an opposing RB against Oklahoma with Deuce Vaughn scoring 31.5. How many rushing yards did Vaughn have against the Sooners? Just 51 on 15 carries. Iowa State’s offensive coordinator was asked this week about Hall’s impact in the passing game and I’ll be curious to see if that’s an emphasis to get him the ball coming out of the backfield against the Sooners. QB Brock Purdy is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season against Texas Tech, but much of that was due to game script where the Cyclones were trailing by multiple scores. The senior QB did complete 76 percent of his throws but also tossed two interceptions. Game script could be in the favor of Purdy again this week as a 4-point underdog, and Oklahoma has allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.
Purdy is definitely in the discussion here, as is his No. 1 target in Xavier Hutchinson. We spoke last week about Oklahoma’s struggles with bigger-bodied receivers, and while Tyquan Thornton didn’t have a massive outing, he did still find the end-zone vs. the Sooners, scoring 14 fantasy points. On the year, Oklahoma is allowing 23.4 FPPG to opposing WR1s. If there is a wildcard on ISU, look at true freshman slot receiver Jaylin Noel, whom Matt Campbell has spoken glowingly about this week, as he now has 10 receptions on 14 targets in the last two games alone. We had success last week with Charlie Kolar finally, posted 8-76-2 on a team-high 10 targets. Probably not going down that path again this week as Oklahoma gives up under 4.0 FPPG to tight ends this season, but he is a clear No. 2 option in a passing game that really only has 2.5 options so.
Oklahoma:
Projections suggest we aren’t touching Oklahoma this week and can probably eliminate everyone from the player pool. And ya know what, I could use a stress-free weekend not rooting for the Sooners’ offense to come alive because something is just off with that group this year. HC Lincoln Riley said that Caleb Williams’ hand is fine and that he should be good to go this week, so while Spencer Rattler did make an appearance against Baylor, I’m not really worried about him getting significant playing time unless Williams is poor again. Statistically, Iowa State is still second in the Big 12, allowing under 200 yards passing per game, but also just gave up 30+ fantasy points to a second-year QB making his first start last week at Texas Tech. Williams is viable in GPPs only as he’s likely to have under five percent ownership in bigger contests. Much of that same logic applies to RB1 Kennedy Brooks as well, facing Iowa State’s No. 2 rush defense in the conference that allows just 13.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s. That said, they were dominated at the point of attack last week, allowing 207 yards and over six yards a carry. I completely bypassed Brooks when constructing my initial rosters, so safe to assume many others are too. One feather in the cap for Brooks is that he continues to see the bulk of the carries over Eric Gray so there really isn’t any concern of losing volume. GPP play only for Brooks.
We’re back to the silly rotation at receiver where Drake Stoops saw more snaps in the slot last week over Marvin Mims. What are we doing here?!?! I suppose I haven’t been paying enough attention but PFF does show Mims has kicked outside more, but is still sharing time with Mike Woods who led the Sooners in targets (6) last week. If that’s going to be the rotation moving forward, then Mario Williams is out of consideration as he saw just 10 offensive snaps vs. Baylor. Jadon Haselwood saw the most, as he has for much of the year, but did little on the field with two receptions on three targets. There is no need to pair Caleb Williams with any receiver should you choose to roster him.
Texas @ West Virginia
Point-Spread: WV -3
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 48 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Texas:
Initial thoughts on the Texas backfield are reflected in the projections this week in that it should be a shared workload between Roschon Johnson and Keilan Robinson this week as the two provide differing running styles / skillsets. Under $4k means you must consider both players this week and sprinkle them in, but is this the best matchup? Meh. West Virginia is better at defending the run than the pass, ranking 42nd in Rush Play Success Rate and are allowing under 3.7 YPC on the season. Baylor and Iowa State are really the only teams this year that have had much success against the Mountaineers this year. I’ll definitely have Roschon in lineups, but not jamming him in thinking he’s getting 20+ carries here. Not out of the realm we see a 15-8 sort of split, with Keilan getting more work in the passing game.
Yet another mistake in long line of mishaps last week for me in DFS. All the focus pregame on the running backs and which min salaried player we can roster, and I didn’t focus enough on Casey Thompson and Xavier Worthy who were elite plays against an all-around awful defense in Kansas. With no threat of a rotation as Steve Sarkisian indicated Thompson is the guy this week over Hudson Card, I like him as an option at just $6,800 against a WVU defense that allows over 24 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are just 79th in Pass Play Success Rate. As for Worthy, I’ll be curious to see what WV’s plan of attack will be defending him, and if they move defensive back Charles Woods over to his side of the field as he grades out very well on PPF with a coverage grade over 85. The Mountaineers are allowing over 19 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, so I’d say the Texas WR1 is definitely “Worthy” of your consideration. Slot-man Jordan Whittington is back in play this week, sitting at the same price as Marcus Washington who had a career high 5-100-2 on seven targets last week. If WVU doesn’t shadow Worthy with Charles Woods, than Washington will get that matchup and that takes him out of the picture for me.
West Virginia:
We’re getting four touchdowns here with West Virginia this week if Vegas is accurate (when aren’t they?) and not a lot of secrets as to where the ball is going for the Mountaineers. I’m trying to find an argument to NOT play Leddie Brown this week, and I’m struggling to find evidence to support it. Volume is still there, averaging 20 touches per game. Matchup is great, facing a Texas defense that has allowed over 200 rushing yards in four of the last five games and are giving up 21.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s. West Virginia’s offensive line is no good, ranking 103rd in Line Yards and just 75th in Rush Play Success Rate, but the Texas defensive front is not imposing their will on anyone these days. Salary makes Brown plenty affordable at just $6,200. He’s in play in all formats.
Phil Jurkovec being $4,500 takes Jarret Doege out of the equation for us at $5,200 but I honestly don’t hate the play as he’s projected at 18.4 fantasy points. Volume typically is there, averaging the most passing attempts per game in the Big 12. The Longhorns are allowing 22 FPPG to opposing QB1s and are 104th in Pass Play Success Rate. Still, Doege has failed to top 20 fantasy points in all but two games this year, and we always have the threat now of Garrett Greene stealing a few snaps. Passing game should find some success against this Texas defense so maybe we look to the receivers. Sean Ryan is questionable and Isaiah Esdale is out for the season so the rotation is shortening up a bit. Slot-man Winston Wright led the Mountaineers in targets last week (11) vs. Kansas State and is the team leader on the season (71). Inside receivers have given Texas some trouble this year as their linebackers and safeties are terrible in coverage. Could be an area for Wright to exploit. Bryce Ford-Wheaton is steady, averaging 5.7 targets per game, but almost no upside. Talented 6-foot-4 true freshman Kaden Prather saw a season-high in snaps (44) and targets (6) last week, and is min priced. We’re at the point in the year where we’ll see talented younger players get more playing time, but concerning for me that Prather’s extended action has come against LIU in Week 2 and then last week’s blowout loss to KSU.
Purdue @ Northwestern
Point-Spread: Purd -11.5
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 45 degrees / 3% rain / 7 mph winds
Purdue:
Are Northwestern’s pass defense numbers a product of how poor they are at defending the run, or are the Wildcats actually good on the backend? Allowing just 18 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, are No. 1 in Pass Play Explosiveness and 18th in PPA. Looking at PPF, there is no real perceived weakness personnel wise with their starting secondary, and opposing WR1s are only averaging 14.5 FPPG. We thinking it could be a down week for the Purdue passing game? David Bell is matchup-proof – averaging 12 targets per game, including 14 or more over the last three weeks. He’s too cheap in my opinion at $7,300. With Aidan O’Connell playing some of the best ball of his career, we’ve seen more involvement from the secondary characters in the Purdue passing game. Jackson Anthrop’s four receiving touchdowns on the season have all come in the last three weeks with 21 combined targets in that stretch. The senior slot-man is also being utilized on the ground, averaging four carries a game in the last three weeks. WR3 Milton Wright also feels too cheap at $3,900 despite being the third or fourth option in the passing game – 23 targets in last three games. Any of the Purdue receivers are viable options for me.
As for O’Connell, I’m conflicted because he’s still inexpensive at $6,200 for a quarterback that has reached 30+ fantasy points in consecutive weeks and is averaging over 50 passing attempts per game the last month. I know we stated at the beginning how NW has been limiting the passing numbers for opposing offenses, but that’s a product of the Wildcats being run over on the ground. Purdue isn’t capable of that, ranking 128th in the country in rushing offense. Because there are other realistic options at under $4k at running back, and considering it’s a split backfield between Zander Horvath and King Doerue, I think we stick with the Purdue passing game. Of the two, Horvath is the play given pricing, and his involvement as a receiver.
Northwestern:
We’ve seen some slippage from the Purdue defense in recent weeks but that’s a product of facing Kenneth Walker and the Ohio State offense. RB1 Evan Hull does project well this week at 18 fantasy points which puts him in play as a GPP candidate at $5,300. Purdue is allowing 17.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s this year, but look at the murderer’s row of running backs faced with Walker, TreVeyon Henderson, Kyren Williams and Braelon Allen. Hull isn’t in the stratosphere of those players and Northwestern’s running game numbers aren’t eye-popping – 101st in Line Yards and 86th in Success Rate on the ground. He’s been quite in recent weeks but look at the defenses faced in that span with Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa who are all sitting atop the Big Ten in run defense. I’m talking myself into Hull now as a run-back candidate to Bell. Only other option for NW is receiver Stephon Robinson Jr. who has posted at least 15 fantasy points in four of the last five games, and averaging nine targets a game in that span.
Michigan State @ Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -19
O/U Total: 68.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 2% rain / 9 mph winds
Michigan State:
I think we’re only looking to the Michigan State side here in a game stack with OSU players, hoping this turns into a shootout. The O/U total has risen since the start of the week, so maybe that’s possible? WR corps should remain the same this week with Jayden Reed, Tre Mosley and Montorie Foster comprising the top three, combining for 20 of the 30 targets last week vs. Maryland. I’m seeing some tea leaves that Jalen Nailor could be available for Saturday, but likely not at 100 percent with a hand injury. QB Payton Thorne is likely to see under five percent ownership at $7k with so many punt options available at the position, but similarly to the receivers, I really only want him in a game stack situation. Ohio State is allowing 22.9 FPPG to opposing QBs and 73rd in Pass Play Success Rate. Should be a high-floor game for Thorne is a good game script, but don’t see much upside, especially without Nailor.
Last time I said we need to sit Kenneth Walker, he proceeded to run for five touchdowns against my Michigan Wolverines and broke the slate. I think this situation is a bit different on the road against a better opponent. The Buckeyes will have the distinct advantage in the trenches as OSU is 6th in Defensive Line Yards, 8th in Rush Play Success Rate and 28th in Rush Play Explosiveness defensively. MSU does not boast a dominant run blocking group along the offensive line.
Ohio State:
Keeping this one brief because we’ve covered Ohio State ad nauseum this year on the Main Slate. Fire up the Buckeye passing game everywhere against the worst pass defense in the country. That O/U has jumped a few points even this week so expect a high-scoring affair. Michigan State is allowing 28.4 FPPG to opposing QBs so CJ Stroud is obviously in play. Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have nearly identical projections this week, and all received at least 10 targets vs. Purdue last Saturday. JSN is the GPP play of the group as he has the highest salary of the three, and I actually like his matchup the best as MSU has been carved up through the middle of the field this year where their linebackers and strong safety are terrible in coverage. We benefitted last week with Maryland tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo as the Spartans have allowed the most fantasy points in the country to opposing TE1s so maybe we even look to Jeremy Ruckert here as well.
TreVeyon Henderson is the ultimate leverage play this week as everyone and their mothers will be focused on the OSU passing game. At $8.5k, we probably need 30+ points out of the freshman running back, and the Michigan State defense hasn’t allowed a RB1 to top 24 fantasy points all season, giving up just 12.9 FPPG on average. Is that just a product of teams carving up MSU through the air? Nope, Michigan State is just good at defending the run, ranked 26th in Rush Play Success Rate. I’ll be underweight on Henderson this week.
Rutgers @ Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -17
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 42 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Rutgers:
Last week is why I will always prefer CFF to DFS, because someone ends up playing Isaih Pacheco and wins $50k. It’s truly a terrible play that no amount of analysis could be constructed to argue putting Pacheco in a lineup. Yes, that’s me being salty. Lightning won’t strike twice and it’s a total team fade of Rutgers this week with an implied total of 15. If anyone, give me WR1 Bo Melton who has at least four receptions in all but one game this season, averaging over eight targets per game. Penn State’s pass defense is elite, ranking 8th in PFF coverage grades, so I’m not going there either.
Penn State:
I really don’t want to play Sean Clifford who’s been mostly underwhelming this season, but the projections and salary dictate that we must consider him with a projection of 26 fantasy points sitting at just $6k. Opposing QB1s are only averaging 21.5 FPPG against Rutgers this season and the Knights are 21st in Pass Play Success Rate, but they’ve also allowed 24+ fantasy points this season to Graham Mertz, Brandon Peters and Ryan Hilinski. BRUTAL. Clifford is definitely in play, alongside his trusted WR1 in Jahan Dotson who is always in play no matter the format. Quiet game against Michigan, as the Wolverines have shut him down his entire career, but still hit his 15 targets which is basically his floor the last month and a half. WR2 Parker Washington doesn’t pop in the projections at just 9.4 points, but I’m going to roster him in lineups I don’t have Dotson in. Why? Rutgers’ slot corner Tre Avery has a coverage grade of 30.7 on PFF. For those unaware – that’s BAD. 28 targets for Washington over the last four games. RB Keyvone Lee is interesting here at $3,600 as a possible pivot away from someone like Roschon Johnson at a similar pricing who is likely to see far greater ownership. Don’t normally advocate for anyone in the Penn State backfield, but Lee did get 20 carries vs. Michigan last week for 88 yards. Rutgers is 11th in run defense in the Big Ten, but they are 41st in Rush Play Success Rate and allowing just 15.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Not a gimme matchup by any stretch, but Lee should see a positive game script with Penn State being a 17-point favorite.
Illinois @ Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -12.5
O/U Total: 38.5
Weather: 50 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Illinois:
RB1 Chase Brown is the only Illini player projected to score double-digit fantasy points, but rule of thumb, we don’t start running backs against the Iowa defense typically as the Hawkeyes are giving up just 10.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Full-team fade.
Iowa:
Alex Padilla actually paid off salary last week against Minnesota, scoring 22 fantasy points at just $4,900 and is now priced down to $4,600. Can’t rationalize it with Jurkovec being cheaper and a better option. Think that was a one-off performance as Minnesota was able to score some points on the Iowa defense. Illinois will NOT be able to replicate that. Tyler Goodson is in a range at $6,500 that makes him a reasonable play with a projection sitting at 17.4, but I will be avoiding against an Illinois defense that is allowing just 12.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s and have held two of the last three opponents to under three yards per carry as a team. This is not the same Iowa offensive line as a year ago, and ranked in the bottom third of the country in most advanced OL statistics.
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -17
O/U Total: 58.5
Weather: 44 degrees / 4% rain / 10 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
I kept looking in the $5-6k range for Jordan Yates, and he pops up at $7.5k. C’mon man. While Yates has won’t turn the ball over as much as Jeff Sims, he also doesn’t provide that game-breaking ability or physical talent that you could at least consider with Sims. Completely unplayable at that pricing, and forces us to dismiss the receivers as well for Georgia Tech. I can see a scenario where RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs goes under-owned here because we haven’t seen much of the Yellow Jackets on a main slate, and still a sophomore so folks don’t realize just how talented he is because…who watches Georgia Tech these days? Notre Dame is giving up just 14.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but have allowed four 20+ fantasy point performances. The Irish are good against the run, ranking 45th in Success Rate and 32nd in Explosiveness. That tempers my interest in Gibbs, but he’s such a dynamo coming out of the backfield that he doesn’t need to get a ton of production on the ground to pay off his salary. Averaging five targets per game this season, with at least four receptions in the last four games. Gibbs also had a 98-yard kickoff return touchdown last week vs. Boston College. 20+ fantasy points in each of the last five games. I’m again talking myself into rostering a player as I’m writing this.
Notre Dame:
Motivation game for Kyren Williams who is not among the finalists this season for the Doak Walker award. Overall run defense for the Yellow Jackets isn’t terrible, but they’ve checked out this back-half of the season, allowing over five yards a carry during the last month, including 195 yards and three TDs to Boston College last week. Touches were down slightly for Williams last week with just 70 yards on 14 carries, but game script had much to do with that in the blowout of Virginia. The increased usage of backup Logan Diggs, along with Chris Tyree still in the mix, has me wary of using Williams with ND as a 17-point favorite.
This is totally where I got myself in trouble last year with Ian Book, and I think it was against this same Georgia Tech team. The Yellow Jackets have allowed the third most fantasy points in the country to opposing QBs this season. Jack Coan is a lock then at $6,400 right? Eh, game script dictated that game last year where Book barely needed to throw the ball. Now, Notre Dame’s offensive line is nowhere near as good as it was last year, so maybe the Irish just can’t ground and pound their way to victory here? Let’s just say Coan is not the worst play in a GPP lineup. Concentrated targets now for the Irish pass-catchers with Michael Mayer, Kevin Austin, Braden Lenzy and Lorenzo Styles dominating the share. $5,600 for Mayer feels pricy, but GT is allowing 8.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season so it’s a favorable matchup. Outside receivers like Dontayvian Wicks and Charleston Rambo have given GT the most problems this year in the passing game, so I’d look to Austin here as the best play among the WRs, but Lenzy is dirt cheap at $3,300 that both deserve consideration.
Arkansas @ Alabama
Point-Spread: Ala -20.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Arkansas:
I’m a bit surprised to see the Arkansas offense projected at just 19 total points this week. The Razorbacks are averaging 31 PPG on the year and this isn’t the dominant Alabama defense that we’ve seen in year’s past. That said, the group looks to be rounding into form after that shocking loss to A&M in early October, allowing just 12.5 PPG in the last month. I know we have a free square in RB1 Dominique Johnson who remains min priced after scoring 15 fantasy points vs. LSU, but the Alabama run defense is far superior to the Tigers, and Johnson struggled to gain much traction. The Tide are allowing just 10.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 9th in Rush Play Success Rate. Similar to the Michigan State strategy, I’d only consider KJ Jefferson and WR1 Treylon Burks in large GPPs in a game-stack scenario with Alabama. We’ve seen guys like Hendon Hooker and Zach Calzada find success against the Tide, and game script should favor the passing game as massive underdogs, but I just can’t get myself to roster Jefferson as he hasn’t topped 14 fantasy points in the last two weeks. Burks averages 7.2 targets per game with six receiving touchdowns in the last five weeks. He’ll be matched in the slot with Malachi Moore who has just a 62.8 coverage grade on PFF, but likely sees double coverage with Jordan Battle over the top who is one of the best in the business. Unless we see the Vegas lines creep up here, I think we fade Arkansas.
Alabama:
Ah, the weekly guessing game of how Alabama will attack the opposing defense – bludgeon you with Brian Robinson Jr. and the running game or take to the air with Bryce Young and his collection of receivers. Best case scenario here is that we probably are focused on just four players – the two above, along with Jameson Williams and John Metchie – as this should be somewhat competitive one would think. If having to choose a player, I would side with Robinson here as he’ll get practically all the carries with Roydell Williams now out for the season, but Arkansas has been strong against the run of late, allowing 3.86 YPC combined to its last four opponents. Seven of Robinson’s last 12 rushing TDs have all come at home. Young, Metchie and Williams all have the potential to break a slate, but I’m typically a risk-averse player, and 20+ carries for Robinson should be a near-lock. Probably want some exposure somewhere here with an implied team total nearing 40.
SMU @ Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -11
O/U Total: 65
Weather: 50 degrees / 6% rain / 8 mph winds
SMU:
We all saw last week that the Cincinnati defense is not as dominant as it was last year, or even earlier in the season, and with the 27 implied team total, I think we have to give the SMU players some consideration here. Tanner Mordecai is a long-shot GPP play only in probably a game-stack situation. One of his lowest projections of the season this week as Cincinnati allows just 13.1 FPPG to opposing QBs on the season. Mordecai will also be down (most likely) one of his top receivers in Danny Gray. Despite being called a “quick healer” by his head coach, Gray was last seen in a walking boot on crutches on the sidelines and didn’t practice as of Tuesday. I’d say count him out. Freshman Dylan Goffney was the primary beneficiary with Gray out with 10-88-0 on 12 targets to lead the team. And guess what? He’s just $3k here. We get word that Gray is out, and Goffney instantly becomes my favorite play of the min priced players on this slate given how much SMU throws the ball. Only issue with that is Goffney will lock horns with Coby Bryant, one of the best cornerbacks in the country. Welcomes to the big leagues, rook. This could be a matchup for Rashee Rice to exploit as the nickel corner for Cincy would be the weakest link of the starting defensive backs. As the highest-priced of the three starting receivers, with the best matchup, Rice might be the play in GPPs. That leaves Reggie Roberson battling Sauce Gardner on the opposite side. The Bearcats have mostly limited the production of tight ends this season, allowing just 3.5 FPPG over the course of the season. Grant Calcaterra is averaging seven targets over the last four games.
Overall numbers for Cincinnati are good against the run, allowing just 13.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s but the rush defense has not been up to par the last month or so, allowing over four yards a carry in that span. Nine of the 13 rushing touchdowns Cincy has allowed this season have come in the last five weeks alone. The Bearcats were much better last week against USF, allowing just 2.66 YPC but did give up three scores on the ground. We essentially have a split backfield now with Ulysses Bentley back in the fold to go along with Tre Siggers, and tough to play the latter as he’s nearly $2k more expensive.
Cincinnati:
Is this finally the week that Desmond Ridder blows up the slate like he did late last year? Projections love him this week at over 30 fantasy points, and it’s a favorable matchup as SMU allows over 28 FPPG to opposing QB1s. To beat this SMU defense, it is via the pass as they’re 76th in Pass Play Success Rate and 113th in Pass Play Explosiveness vs. 36th in Rush Play Success Rate and 7th in Rush Play Explosiveness. With Jerome Ford potentially not at 100 percent, this sets up for the offense to revolve around Ridder on Saturday. Storylines galore too as this is senior for Ridder, facing a team in SMU that he has dominated in the past with 352 passing yards vs. the Mustangs in 2018, and then rushed for 179 yards and three scores in last year’s matchup. As for Ford, there is still no update on his status, and while he looked close to playing last week in warmups prior to USF, we won’t know if he’ll be 100 percent. Cincinnati rotated three backs last week, all of whom performed relatively well, but we mentioned how good SMU has been at defending the run already. I’ll pass on the Cincinnati running game.
I hate that I must dive into the Bearcat receivers, and probably won’t matter in the end as Ridder can be played naked in a lineup, but let’s take just a closer look. In the loss to Memphis, 11 different Tigers hauled in a reception (10 had a reception of 12 yards or more). Against Houston, Nathaniel Dell had nine catches for 165 yards (18.3 yard average) and three scores. Opposing offenses are going to test SMU deep – hence why they rank 113th in explosiveness. I hate that Alec Pierce is priced up to $7,600, but I think those numbers put him in consideration with an aDOT of 17.4. He’ll have next to zero ownership. SMU has limited opposing tight ends this season to just 2.6 FPPG so I’m not interested in spending $5k for Josh Whyle. Tre Tucker, Tyler Scott and Michael Young Jr. will all be in the mix for targets, but none are capable of breaking a slate so upside is minimal. I think it’s Pierce or bust when it comes to Cincy pass-catchers.
Virginia @ Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: Pitt -14.5
O/U Total: 66
Weather: 48 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Virginia:
O/U has moved down and swung in favor of Pittsburgh this week so I doubt we see Brennan Armstrong on Saturday. And if we did, he wouldn’t be 100 percent so I don’t think it’s advisable to play him regardless. Armstrong did throw the ball a few times pregame last week, but did not partake in warmups so he’s probably not close to returning. Completely out on Dontayvion Wicks if Armstrong is out as he’s the team’s best deep threat and starting QB Jay Woolfolk averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt. Everyone gets bumped down a peg at receiver without QB1, but Keytaon Thompson still made the most of his frequent opportunities last week with 9-11-0 on 12 targets. We also saw some involvement from Thompson as a runner with three attempts and we can’t ever discount the fact he is a former QB so maybe the offensive staff has a surprise in store with more time to game-plan. As for Woolfolk, didn’t watch the game last week, but under 55 percent completion percentage and two interceptions doesn’t give me a lot of confidence he can improve much on that, now on the road against a Pitt defense that has 11 sacks in the last two games.
Pittsburgh:
Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison were both in my initial build this week for the main slate and I even sprinkled in some Israel Abanikanda as well with the implied team total over 40. Pickett is the highest-projected QB of the slate, and don’t really see a way in which he fails. Virginia allows 29.4 FPPG to opposing QBs and are 113th in Pass Play Success Rate. UVA is dead last in the conference in sacks so Pickett should have plenty of time to scan the defense. Maybe Pickett doesn’t get there because Pitt gashes the Hoos on the ground and soaks up game clock as a two touchdown favorite, but that is not the offense’s priority under OC Mark Whipple. Addison is a lock for me at $7,100 but I would like to keep tabs on some of the injuries at receiver for Pitt, because if Jaylon Barden and Taysir Mack are back, I’ll probably lessen my exposure a bit. Jared Wayne has emerged as a complementary WR2 next to Addison with 22 targets in the last three games and four touchdowns in the last five. Tight end usage is up for Pitt this season, but I don’t have much interest in a bigger slate as Lucas Krull and Gavin Bartholomew are essentially splitting reps. We’ll see a three-man rotation in the Pitt backfield with Abanikanda, Vincent Davis and Rodney Hammond, but prefer the talented sophomore first and foremost. Seeing more action in the passing game is a bonus with 12 receptions on 17 targets in the last four weeks. Virginia has the worst rush defense in the ACC and is allowing over 25 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the season. Abanikanda is definitely in play.
Michigan @ Maryland
Point-Spread: Mich -16
O/U Total: 57.5
Weather: 48 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Michigan:
Expect to see another full load of Hassan Haskins on Saturday, as Blake Corum will not suit up for the second straight week. They won’t need him against Maryland with the hopes he’s 100 percent for the matchup with Ohio State next Saturday. Tons of studs at the running back position on this slate, but have no issue again spending $7,600 for Haskins as you know he’s likely to see 20+ carries against a defense that ranks 13th out of 14 Big Ten teams in rushing, and allowed 14 touchdowns in the last six games alone. It was yet another proficient outing from QB Cade McNamara against the Nittany Lions, completing 66 percent of his passes for 217 yards and three scores, including the game-winner to tight end Erick All. That’s now seven of his 12 passing touchdowns in the last three games, two of which were on the road at Penn State and Michigan State. Especially without Corum, I think you can make the case for McNamara this week with the implied team total 35.5 and Michigan “maybe” looking to lighten the load on Haskins and not give him 30 carries like they did against PSU. Not as though Maryland has been any good defending the pass either, allowing 27.8 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. DraftKings making obvious errors with salaries this week means there will be better min-priced plays, but I could also make the case for RB2 and 5-star freshman Donovan Edwards who should see more work on Saturday filling in for Corum.
There is no bonafide star among the Michigan pass-catchers, but the Wolverines are getting contributions everywhere of late. Roman Wilson had two receiving touchdowns on Saturday. The week prior against Indiana, it was junior Cornelius Johnson who topped 100 yards receiving. Eight different Michigan pass-catchers now have 11 or more receptions on the year which speaks to the depth this team is developing. Tough task for a Maryland secondary that is 105th in the country, allowing over 258 yards through the air. Andrel Anthony’s price hasn’t come down much despite just two catches over the last two games, but he’s healthy and will be a factor.
Maryland:
Missed opportunities cost the Terrapins last Saturday in East Lansing, as they had four offensive drives stall out after getting inside the Michigan State 40-yard line. Zero points on those trips. To be fair to quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, he’s playing with a M.A.S.H. unit among the Maryland skill positions as they’ve been without two starting receivers for five weeks now, and were down yet another starting running back on Saturday. For the season, Tagovailoa has been improved, throwing for 3,105 yards with 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, along with a 69.3 completion percentage. Maryland keeping their starting quarterback upright on Saturday will be the task as the Terps have allowed 15 sacks over the last five games, and are now facing arguably the best pair of pass rushers in the country in Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. Given the matchup, Taulia’s pricing, and the surplus of cheap QBs available to us on Saturday, there is literally zero incentive to playing the Maryland QB1. Michigan should dominate the trenches and harass Tagovailoa all game.
Full fade of the running game here as the Terps have struggled to gain anything on the ground in the last month in a half. Since Week 6 against Ohio State, Maryland is averaging just 2.5 yards per carry and have failed to rush for 100 yards as a team in five of the last six games. Not a coincidence they’ve lost five of those six games. The biggest contributions of late have come from tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo who now has 20 receptions in the last two games alone, and found the end-zone twice against Michigan State. That’s half of his season-long production in just two weeks. Maryland is down yet another starting receiver with slot-man Marcus Fleming out for the year. New starting trio should consist of Rakim Jarrett, Carlos Carriere and Brian Cobbs, with Darryl Jones rotating in.
Nebraska @ Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -9
O/U Total: 43
Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Nebraska:
I understand there are some really inept offenses in the Big Ten, but Wisconsin is nearing Georgia territory of elite-level defense as the Badgers have allowed just 17 total points over the last three weeks. Yes, that includes Rutgers, Northwestern and Iowa, but that is a dominant stretch of defense over that span. If you extend it out to six weeks, Wisconsin is allowing just 7.3 PPG since early October. Nebraska fields a better offense than each of those three teams, but are we realistically trusting the Cornhuskers on the road here with an implied total of just 16 points? Short answer is no. Badgers are allowing just 10.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season so easy pass on Adrian Martinez. Wisconsin is No. 1 in the country – ahead of Georgia – at defending the run so no thanks to Rahmir Johnson. WR1 Samori Toure is cheap enough at $4,500 that maybe you could entertain the idea of rostering him, but the Badgers are allowing just 12.9 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season so the upside is minimal. If you were desperate to play a Nebraska player, I’d lean towards WR2 Omar Manning at $3,800 as he’s had 15 targets in the last two games alone. His physicality and size at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, is the type of receiver that tends to give Wisconsin’s DBs some trouble.
Wisconsin:
To roster Braelon Allen or not to roster Braelon Allen? Projections will love the FR running back that’s topped 100+ rushing yards the previous six games with eight rushing touchdowns, but is he worth the $8,600 price tag? The Cornhuskers are a Top 40 run defense, coming off consecutive games of holding opponents to 3.0 YPC or less, and that includes TreVeyon Henderson. Nebraska is allowing 21.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but some of these numbers for the Cornhuskers make you think its just not worth spending up for Allen, and could limit him to some extent this week. 25th in Rush Play PPA and 19th in Rush Play Success Rate. Would expect a similar volume distribution this week with Allen seeing around 25 carries, and mixing in Julius Davis, Jackson Acker, and Brady Schipper to spell the freshman. Wisconsin is just a 9.5-point favorite as of writing this Wednesday so maybe we see less of the backups if a close contest. Only other Wisconsin player to give serious consideration to is tight end Jake Ferguson who is strangely listed at $3,200 despite scoring two touchdowns in the last three games with 15 total targets in that span.