Auburn @ South Carolina
Point-Spread: Aub -7.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Weather: 45 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Auburn:
21-point projection for Tank Bigsby at $5,900 is a beautiful sight. I can’t imagine how this is not a run-heavy game plan for the Tigers on Saturday night, facing a South Carolina run defense that has given up 200+ rushing yards in three of the last five games. Bigsby, who is friends and roommates with new starting QB T.J. Finley, struggled against Mississippi State with a pair of fumbles, but still fell into the end-zone twice, giving him five rushing scores in the last five games. Backup Jarquez Hunter seems to have hit a freshman wall after bursting onto the scene earlier in the year, averaging under four yards a carry in each of the last five games. Stout defenses in that stretch, so maybe he’s due for a bit of a bounce back this week as Auburn leans on the run. Finley is a mountain of a man with a cannon, but he’s not even under consideration for me this week at $5,600 as he’s an inaccurate quarterback that doesn’t run, in a negative game script. WR1 Kobe Hudson is OUT, meaning we see a top three at receiver comprised of Shedrick Jackson, Demetris Robertson and Ja’Varrius Johnson in the slot taking over the vacated role. Against MSU, Johnson went for 102 yards on five targets, along with a 57-yard TD run. Tight end John Samuel Shenker is fourth on the team with 27 receptions on 39 targets, but has yet to find the end-zone this season. South Carolina allows just 3.8 FPPG to opposing TE1s but were gashed by Jalen Wydermyer earlier in the year for 23 fantasy points.
South Carolina:
Jason Brown gets the nod at quarterback again this week for South Carolina. Last week on the road against Missouri, a team that allows 28.1 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, Brown managed all over 8.7 fantasy points. Does not move the needle at all to even consider him this week, despite being at home facing an Auburn defense that just allowed 400 passing yards and six touchdowns last week to Mississippi State. The Tigers hadn’t allowed a passing TD in the two games prior to last week’s mishap. Split backfield right now between ZaQuandre White and Kevin Harris, with a sprinkling of MarShawn Lloyd, and there is no reason to think that dynamic changes with all being healthy. I’ll pass here as the run defense is the strength of the Auburn unit, ranking 28th in Rush Play Success Rate and 21st in Rush Play Explosiveness. The Gamecocks have failed to top 75 rushing yards as a team in two of the last three games and under 100 yards six times this season. The only playable option at receiver is Josh Vann who accounts for 21 percent of the team target share and has found the end-zone twice in the last two weeks. Averages nearly six targets a game.
California @ Stanford
Point-Spread: Cal -2
O/U Total: 45.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 1% rain / 10 mph winds
California:
Feels like we haven’t seen the Cal Bears in forever, following their 10-3 loss to Arizona two weeks ago where they were missing half the team essentially due to COVID protocols, and then had last week’s contest with USC postponed. So, this feels like a good refresher because there are actually some viable pieces for DFS purposes this year. Chase Garbers is having an outstanding season after a dismal campaign in 2020, averaging 24 FPPG and topped 20 fantasy points in six of the last seven games. Might we see some rust after two weeks off essentially? Of the two phases within the Stanford defense, the Cardinal are far better against the pass this season, ranking 60th in Success Rate and 14th in Pass Play Explosiveness. Healthy projection at 25.7 fantasy points for a quarterback sitting at $7k, and Garbers is running far more than he did a year ago, averaging over 11 carries a game over the last five weeks. Running quarterbacks have really hurt Stanford this year.
We’ve spoken about the Stanford run defense and it hasn’t gotten any better, allowing nine rushing TDs in the last two games alone! Still dead last in the Pac-12 and giving up well over five yards a carry. Cal will rotate between Christopher Brooks and Damien Moore primarily, but it’s the former who has seen the most work of late, averaging 14 carries over the last four games. Matchup is wonderful but I will caution that Cal will be without two starters still along the offensive line Saturday so that downgrades slightly. Still a low-cost investment with Brooks against this putrid run defense. Zero upside with the Cal receivers as they’ll rotate Trevon Clark, Kekoa Crawford, Jeremiah Hunter and Nikko Remigio throughout the game. I don’t have the numbers in front of me but would be surprised if any of them have topped 20 fantasy points in a single game this season. You can play Garbers naked without pairing him.
Stanford:
Looks like Tanner McKee will return to the lineup for Stanford on Saturday as he’s probable per David Shaw. The Cardinal offense took a tumble with McKee out of the lineup, scoring just 21 combined points in the previous two games. To clarify, McKee hasn’t been announced as the starter, just expected at this point. Cal is very pedestrian with every aspect of their defense, but are slightly better against the pass, allowing just 23.2 FPPG to opposing QBs and are 55th in Pass Play Success Rate. Don’t mind the play at $6,500, but nothing about McKee excites me with this low a game total. We have two playable targets in the Stanford passing game with WR1 Michael Wilson and TE1 Ben Yurosek who combined for 12 of the 21 targets last time out against Oregon State. Wilson’s snap counts rose against the Beavers since returning from injury, playing 41 of 47 available snaps and led with eight targets. At $3,900 with McKee returning, he’s absolutely in play. Cal has done a nice job with opposing tight ends this season, allowing just 6.8 FPPG. Not a long list of talented tight ends they’ve faced this year, but did limit Cole Turner to just 14 fantasy points. Wilson > Yurosek even if the prices were even, and there is a $3k difference between the two. Stanford continues to be abysmal running the football, ranking 113th in Stuff Rate, 120th in Line Yards and 123rd in Rush Play Success Rate. Austin Jones is getting the bulk of the workload, but it hasn’t amounted to much production.
South Alabama @ Tennessee
Point-Spread: Tenn -28
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 42 degrees / 0% rain / 1 mph winds
South Alabama:
Tennessee has a pretty good cover corner with size in Alontae Taylor who is likely to shadow Jalen Tolbert for much of the night. Love Tolbert’s potential at the next level, but not paying $7,500 to see what he can do on the road against a SEC defense. Especially not with Desmond Trotter throwing him the football. If we think South Alabama will throw it a bunch, Jalen Wayne could be the move at $4,100 as he was targeted 10 times last week in the blowout loss to Appalachian State. Zero faith that South Alabama is able to generate anything on the ground against the Vols, but they’ve mis-priced the USA running backs with starter Terrion Avery sitting third in salary.
Tennessee:
Let’s start with the injuries because we never know who might sit out for precautionary reasons against an inferior opponent. Tiyon Evans is NOT expected to play so we’ll see a heavy dose of Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright. Sounds like Len’Neth Whitehead could make a return to the backfield as he was in uniform vs. Georgia but did not play. South Alabama is 23rd in the country in run defense, but has played one of the weakest schedules in the nation. Louisiana gashed them for 225 yards earlier in the year – the best rush offense they’ve faced to date. Both Small and Wright are playable for me this week with Josh Heupel typically being a proponent to rotate his running backs. QB Hendon Hooker is a lock in GPP and cash at $6,700, projected at 30.4 fantasy points this week. JaVonta Payton suffered an injury vs. Georgia and did not return. He’s unlikely to play this week so look for Cedric Tillman, Velus Jones and Ramel Keyton to dominate the target share, with a sprinkling of Jalin Hyatt. I initially thought it would be Hyatt as next man up with Payton out, but Keyton stepped in at the LWR spot last week to not disrupt the chemistry with the WR rotations. Keyton filled in admirably with five receptions on eight targets and is min priced. Load up on the Vols this week.
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss
Point-Spread: Ole Miss -36
O/U Total: 65.5
Weather: 53 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Vanderbilt:
Ken Seals is questionable so it’s likely going to be Mike Wright at quarterback this week. Let’s be honest – he’s not even in the player pool for the DFS players that create 120 lineups. Not sure what the status is on Rocko Griffin but he didn’t log a snap last week vs. Kentucky so I suspect Patrick Smith will get the bulk of the work again on Saturday. Smith rushed for 84 yards on 18 carries. Ole Miss is allowing 18.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 124th in Success Rate defending the run. Poor game script for Smith, but a RB at $3,500 getting 90 percent of the carries is worth the slimmest of consideration. Wright starting does dip into that volume as he’s a dual threat. Smith was targeted four times last week. Targets are split evenly between the top four receivers so I don’t have any interest in that group.
Ole Miss:
Just announced on Friday evening that this will be Matt Corral’s final home game as he will be off to the NFL. Closes out his career with a bang? Projected at 29.9 fantasy points this week with an implied total of 50, facing a defense that allows 28.1 FPPG to opposing QBs. We know we have a very high floor, but how high is the ceiling for a quarterback who has been banged up all season, with Ole Miss’ impending matchup next week in the Egg Bowl vs. Mississippi State being the most important game of the season. Ole Miss will want their QB1 healthy and ready to go for Thursday. I’ll probably fade Corral as the Rebels could very easily rely on their trio of running backs to shoulder much of the load. Jerrion Ealy saw a significant edge in snaps for the second-straight week as he looks to have regained his RB1 status, rushing for 100 yards yet again vs. a tough A&M defense. Vandy will obviously give up yards in droves on the ground, but you’ll probably see a 10-10-10 split across the board here between Ealy, Snoop Conner and Henry Parrish. Ealy is going to see heavy ownership with his salary being lower than Conner’s but could see a pivot to one of the other two in GPPs with the rushing volume likely to be spread evenly across the board.
At receiver, Dontario Drummond and Braylon Sanders were back in the fold last week, combining for nine receptions on 13 targets, and playing nearly 80 percent of the offensive snaps. Sounds like Jonathan Mingo is nearing a return, but there is probably no shot he plays this week. I know we’ll see a bunch of receivers in this impending blowout, but Drummond, Sanders and Jahcour Pearson really dominated the snap counts at the position last week, with the latter leading the way with eight targets. Vanderbilt has struggled to defend opposing TE1s this season, allowing 9.9 FPPG so Casey Kelly is in the mix at $4,400 with 15 targets in the last three games.
Oregon @ Utah
Point-Spread: Utah -3
O/U Total: 58.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Oregon:
The projections are nearly identical for both Oregon and Utah in this matchup in that it’s the QBs, the RB1s and nobody else. While I do prefer Rising here, there is no doubt Anthony Brown is playing some of his best ball of the season, averaging 23.3 FPPG on the season and at least 20 fantasy points in five of the last six. Utah is allowing 24 FPPG to opposing QBs, but are 36th in Pass Play Success Rate. Luckily Brown gives us a great floor with his running ability, coming off a season-high 123 rushing yards on 17 carries against Washington State. AND GUESS WHAT!?!? We actually might be able to use some Oregon receivers this week as there will be a shortened rotation now that Mycah Pittman is in the portal and Johnny Johnson is not expected to play. Devon Williams is the best play of the group, leading all receivers in snaps and targets last week. If I’m reading this correctly, he’ll start opposite Kris Hutson on the outside with veteran Jaylon Redd in the slot. Talented 4-star FR Troy Franklin will mix in some, but that’ll be the core four at receiver on Saturday night. There isn’t a shut-down corner on the Utah side.
Utah is only allowing 14.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but we know the challenges Travis Dye presents a defense coming out of the backfield with 34 targets in the last six games alone. The Utes are just 74th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively, now facing an elite run blocking offensive line so I’m not concerned much about rostering Dye this week. Talented FR Byron Cardwell has emerged as the Thunder to Dye’s Lightning, playing in that CJ Verdell role. Should only see about 7-10 carries on Saturday night, but he’s done a lot with his limited reps, averaging nearly eight yards per attempt.
Utah:
I know Utah is the favorite here, but I do prefer Cam Rising here of the two quarterbacks and the projections agree with that. Oregon ranks 11th out of 12 teams in the Pac-12 in yards allowed per game through the air and are giving up more FPPG (26.0) to opposing QBs this season than the Utes. I think with some of the question marks at RB, Rising could potentially shoulder a bigger load this week of the offense and will see a lower ownership percentage in GPPs because of salary. Rising doesn’t run a lot, but does have four rushing TDs in the last six games. With regards to Tavion Thomas, I can’t find a damn thing on his status for Saturday. Oregon has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season, but don’t think that logic applies to a RB like Thomas who has been exceptional when on the field. If we get word Thomas is out again, former Oklahoma transfer TJ Pledger is next man up after rushing for 119 yards and two scores last week vs. Arizona. Pay attention here throughout the day because he is a nice salary-saver at running back on the FD Main slate that probably goes under-owned because he plays at night. Micah Bernard is still around too, getting 10 carries against the Wildcats, and comes in on passing downs as a reliable receiver out of the backfield. Regardless of which running back is in the backfield, I do think the Utes will have success despite Oregon’s stout run defense. Utah is 8th in Line Yards and 24th in Rush Play Success Rate, where Oregon is just 50th in the same category on defense. No real interest in the Utah pass-catchers. Oregon allows 7.4 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season so maybe Brant Kuithe has a productive night, but he splits time with Dalton Kincaide. At receiver, we at least have a clear-cut starting trio of Britain Covey, Devaughn Vele and Solomon Enis who dominate the snap counts. Looking at PFF’s matchup chart, the Oregon nickel back is the weak link of the secondary so could be an opportunity for Covey to thrive in the slot.
Virginia Tech @ Miami
Point-Spread: Mia -7.5
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 76 degrees / 52% rain / 10 mph winds
Va Tech:
Braxton Burmeister is projected at 21 fantasy points this week, and he’s hit that mark in two of the last three games – the third against BC he was injured in the first quarter and didn’t return. Miami is allowing over 30 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. The issue this week with the Virginia Tech offense is that, while the scheme won’t change despite Justin Fuente being relieved of his duties as head coach, the execution might be lacking as he was the primary play-caller. Tre Turner will play right? Saw somewhere he might miss the game, but did play 56 of 63 snaps last week vs. Duke so I assume he’s good to go. Turner and WR2 Tayvion Robinson are the only viable options in the Virginia Tech passing game. Looks like Turner will have the best matchup of the two vs. Miami defender Marcus Clarke in the slot. The Malachi Thomas experience did not last long as Virginia Tech is now back to a rotation with Raheem Blackshear and Keshawn King all seeing carries. Does the interim coach alter this? Blackshear is the only one of interest to me, coming off a 100-yard performance against Duke with double-digit carries in the last four games. Miami is allowing 19.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season.
Miami:
Pricing is near equal between Tyler Van Dyke and Jaylan Knighton this week, and their projections are mirror images at around 25 fantasy points. Not sure stacking both together is the best course of action, so which do we choose here? My preference would be Knighton of the two I believe as Virginia Tech struggles to defend the run, ranking 96th in Rush Success Rate and giving up 16.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. The Hokies are giving up 25.9 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, but actually rank 4th in Pass Play Success Rate defensively. 92nd in Pass Play Explosiveness. Virginia Tech has allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of the last five games. The top trio at receiver in Charleston Rambo, Key’Shawn Smith and Mike Harley dominated the target share last week vs. FSU with 28 of the 44 targets. We did not see much rotation of the younger receivers being involved. Tight end Will Mallory had season-highs with 5-72-1 on seven targets. Virginia Tech is allowing just 2.0 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season so I won’t be rostering Mallory. Look at receivers that have had success against Va Tech this year, the top scoring producers have been Josh Downs, Courtney Jackson, Jared Wayne, Jimmy Marshall and Avery Davis. I believe all of those players play in the slot, or at least see extensive time inside. Maybe Harley is the best play of the bunch?
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech
Point-Spread: OK State -10
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Getting a nice projection here for Spencer Sanders this week at 26 fantasy points, taking on a Texas Tech defense that allows nearly 30 FPPG to opposing QB1s. We did see Brock Prudy put up his best fantasy performance last week against this same Tech defense, but game script had much to do with that as Iowa State was trailing much of the game, and went into overtime. If playing Sanders, it’s a must to pair him with one of the two viable receivers in Tay Martin and Brennan Presley who have dominated the target share for OSU the last few games. Both have favorable matchups looking at the coverage grades of Texas Tech defensive backs, and that lines up with the receivers that have beaten the Red Raiders this year with the likes of Xavier Worthy, Marvin Mims and Nathaniel Dell. A complete mix of outside and slot receivers. I would not pair both receivers with Sanders FWIW. Overall numbers defending the run aren’t great, but man, Texas Tech has been dominant of late, limiting its last three opponents to under 90 rushing yards. And that includes Breece Hall, Kennedy Brooks and Deuce Vaughn. Jaylen Warren is still relatively inexpensive at $6,900, but I might look to fade him here, particularly now that Oklahoma State saw its depth at RB last week. Maybe the coaching staff decides to give a Dominic Richardson or someone else a longer look, as opposed to Warren dominating the volume back there. I’m guessing there, but could be a fade spot here.
Texas Tech:
Donovan Smith is not priced up this week as he sits at just $5,500 after scoring 32 fantasy points last Saturday vs. Iowa State. I really think the Red Raiders have something for their future in Smith as a strong-armed dual threat at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds. Maybe he surprises us again this week at home against the top defense in the Big 12? Cheap enough to where I might want some exposure, and he does offer a higher floor because of his legs, but Oklahoma State is allowing the third fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing QBs. The Cowboys are allowing 16.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but rank inside the top 10 in the country in rush defense. And we have a split backfield between Tahj Brooks and SaRodorick Thompson who saw equal carries vs. Iowa State. I won’t sniff Thompson at $5,300, but you can make the argument for Brooks at $3,700, and he might be the better back of the two honestly. WR1s are averaging just 12.7 FPPG against this Oklahoma State defense, and the Cowboys are giving up the 10th fewest PPG to receiver in the country. Myles Price broke out in the slot last week with 9-175-1 on a team-high 11 targets. Kaylon Geiger remains in the rotation but has been a complete non-factor the last month or so. I don’t think he’s a fit for the type of play-calls this staff utilizes with Smith at quarterback. WR1 Erik Ezukanma likely sees low ownership this week due to pricing and matchup, but Smith has really taken a liking to his big-bodied receiver with three touchdowns in the last two games – all thrown by Smith.
Wyoming @ Utah State
Point-Spread: Utah St -6
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 36 degrees / 1% rain / 3 mph winds
Wyoming:
I’ll be fading Xazavian Valladay this week as his salary just isn’t worth paying up at this point. I’m not sure how good the Utah State run defense actually is, but they’ve limited the last three opponents to under 50 rushing yards. We are now seeing a split backfield for Wyoming as well with Titus Swen seriously challenging Valladay for carries. Don’t think the coaching staff will outright turn the starting job over to Swen at this point, but his involvement in the offense has increased the last three weeks. I know Wyoming has played one of the easiest schedules in the country, but the advanced metrics suggest they should be able to run the ball on Utah State, ranking 47th in Success Rate, 29th in Line Yards and 16th in Stuff Rate. The Aggies are just 72nd in Success Rate defending the run. No interest in Levi Williams, but we need him to do his part in getting the ball to Wyoming WR1 Isaiah Neyor who is one of the hidden gems of the G5. Volume is not there to consider him at $6,800, but the sophomore now has 10 touchdowns on the year with five coming in the last three games. I hope he transfers out after this season to a P5 team that could showcase his talents. Ann Arbor would be a lovely landing spot, Isaiah.
Utah State:
Wyoming ranks 4th in the country in yards allowed per game through the air. QB1s are averaging just 16.9 FPPG – 10th best mark in the country. WR1s are averaging around 14 FPPG – 29th best in the country. Pro Football Focus ranks Wyoming 5th nationally in coverage grades, and the Cowboys are 31st in Pass Play Success Rate. This will be a very interesting matchup to see how Wyoming stacks up against one of the better passing games in the Mountain West with Utah State. I know what the numbers say, but it’s going to be difficult shying away from Deven Thompkins who is just a fantasy monster, averaging 12 targets per game in 2021 with 79 receptions and eight TDs. I want to say he is matchup-proof, but this will be the toughest test to date. Derek Wright has emerged as a complementary WR2 opposite Thompkins, with six of his eight receiving touchdowns coming in the last four weeks. Brandon Bowling joins Thompkins in the slot, and has bounced back after a midseason lull with two scores in the last three games. Logan Bonner has been on fire of late – proving why he was always a better option than Layne Hatcher – tossing four touchdowns in each of the last three games. His pricing is fair at $7,200 where you aren’t jamming him in given the matchup, but also not ignoring. Calvin Tyler Jr. seems to have regained his starting job from Elelyon Noa, as he had a 21-10 carry advantage last week against San Jose State. Wyoming is only allowing 15.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but have fallen off of late defending the run, allowing five yards a carry over the last three weeks. Tyler could be a pivot play, given the matchup, to Thompkins and the passing game.
Become a member of theCFFsite and gain access to all exclusive DFS content, which includes all write-ups and Weekly Player Rankings/Projections. Click here for details.