Kansas State vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: K-St -9.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: K-St 33.5 – KU 24
Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($6,000) One of my personal favorite players to watch this season, Giddens has a juicy matchup with a Kansas rush defense that is 112th in success rate and allowing 20.8 FPPG to RB1s. The Jayhawk defense has been better of late, holding both Iowa State and Texas Tech under four yards a carry in their respective matchups. Giddens’ added versatility as a pass-catcher is very intriguing if he can’t get the job done on the ground, now third on the team in receptions (27) and targets (33).
Fade – QB Avery Johnson ($7,400) It’s not totally over, but we’re seeing less and less of the quarterback rotation with the way Will Howard has performed of late. Just nine snaps last week for Johnson in the win over Baylor with one rushing attempt. And that was in a 34-point blowout.
Bargain Bin – WR Keagan Johnson ($3,900) It took some time, and injuries played a role, but we’re starting to see what was expected in the preseason from the Iowa transfer. 10 receptions on 14 targets over the last two games for Johnson, who has solidified his spot in the starting lineup the last two weeks, playing the second most snaps among wideouts behind Phillip Brooks.
Pivot Play – QB Will Howard ($7,700) Short story – I bet under 27.5 passing touchdowns for Will Howard in the summer and was feeling great a few weeks ago. Not so much the case now as Howard is heating up with 12 passing touchdowns in the last four games, averaging 24 fantasy points in that span. Kansas is marginally better at defending the pass, but not by much, ranking 77th in EPA per pass play and allowing 20.4 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Phillip Brooks ($5,000) Feels a bit too cheap here for a player that leads Kansas State in every receiving category. Five receptions in each of the last three games, a 73.1% catch rate without a drop in 2023. TE Ben Sinnott ($4,700) is reverting to form the last two weeks after catching just one pass in Week’s 8-9. 60 or more receiving yards in the last two games on 12 targets. Kansas allowed just two tight ends to score double digit fantasy points. RB Treshaun Ward ($5,300) is the clear RB2 behind Giddens but is still averaging between 9-13 touches per game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($7,000) Lean on your best player in times of desperation, right? Even with a backup quarterback, Neal had one of his best performances of the season with 137 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries against Texas Tech. Noticeable uptick in rushing volume the last three weeks as well, averaging 23 attempts per game. Just 13 carries per game on average in the seven weeks. The Wildcats are allowing just 14.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but Big 12 running backs have found quite a bit of success against K-State. Six different players have scored 15 fantasy points or more in their matchups with the Wildcats, and we know this KU staff can scheme offense with the best of em.
Fade – QB. Nebraska transfer Cole Ballard has seen the majority of first-team reps in practice this week according to the Kansas beat writer, but still up in the air as to who starts on Saturday. While he came in cold against Texas Tech last week, completing 9 of 20 passes with 5.96 fantasy points scored does not inspire much confidence. Still a good chance that Jason Bean starts on Saturday, but with minimal reps in practice this week, I’m tentative to start him against this Kansas State defense. I’d rather avoid entirely with the surplus of QBs available to us on the slate.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($4,000) Kansas State had been one of the best defenses in the country against the tight end position through 10 weeks. That evaporated after the performance against Baylor where the top two tight ends combined for 27 fantasy points, including 20 from starter Drake Dabney. Maybe an area for Mason Fairchild to exploit?
Pivot Play – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($4,800) These plays on the KU side are dependent on what happens at quarterback, so it’s tough to forecast on a Friday night without knowing who is starting. KU leaned on the run game last week against Texas Tech, even in a trailing position, with Hishaw getting 13 rushing attempts. Have to imagine that workload looks similar if Ballard gets the nod.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Similar to Hishaw above, the viability of the Kansas receivers is dependent on who gets the nod at quarterback. No need to incorporate a ton of analysis here as the top trio of Lawrence Arnold, Luke Grimm and Quentin Skinner are separated by just seven targets on the season with seven of the team’s 15 receiving touchdowns. Boundary receivers have had the most success against the Wildcats, making up four of the top five fantasy scorers, which lends to favoring either Arnold or Skinner in this situation. But not a priority by any means.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the QB situation.
Washington vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: OSU -1.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: OSU 32 – UW 30.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 98% rain / 8 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – RB Dillon Johnson ($7,200) The Huskies are riding their horse this second half of the season, as Johnson now has 18 or more carries in four of the last five games. If the Mississippi State transfer can run for 100+ and a touchdown against Utah, he damn well can against this Oregon State defense that is very ordinary against the run, ranking 91st in rush D success rate and 70th in EPA per run play. 26 rushing attempts went to Washington running backs last week – 23 went to Johnson. And that’s been the story for the last month and a half.
Fade – WR Jalen McMillan ($6,500) The word from the coaching staff and Washington beat writers is that McMillan will see more playing time than the six offensive snaps he got against Utah last week. The question is…is that 10 more snaps? 20 more snaps? There’s enough talent on the Washington roster at receiver that the Huskies can bring McMillan along at his own pace, so I won’t be risking the star receiver in either cash or GPPs.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Westover ($3,800) Oregon State is 119th in pass attempts allowed per game, so expect the Huskies to still be throwing the ball even in rainy conditions. Westover had a season-high seven receptions on seven targets last week against the Utes in a high-possession game. Oregon State is allowing 8.4 FPPG to opposing TE1s with four tight ends scoring 11 fantasy points or more against them.
Pivot Play – WR Germie Bernard ($4,300) We spoke on McMillan above. If the coaching staff is being facetious about his actual status, then Bernard does stand to benefit as the team’s WR3. Had his second-best performance of the season last week with 6-63-0 on seven targets, seeing the most offensive snaps of the season.
Best of the Rest – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($10,500) If I had two spots to fade from the Washington offense, this would be the second. Simply put, if you’re spending up on one quarterback option, Jayden Daniels and his 52.5-point implied team total is the easy selection. A 25-point projection for a non-running quarterback in pouring rain doesn’t make a ton of sense. Not much more I can add about WR Rome Odunze ($8,500) or WR Ja’Lynn Polk ($7,900) that hasn’t already been written to this point. Would just add that with McMillan potentially seeing more playing time + weather conditions, it would not be advisable to stack the two together.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Damien Martinez ($6,600) Pour one out for our CFF brethren who started Damien Martinez all year, ran for just three touchdowns in the first 10 weeks, sit him in the quarterfinals of the playoff, only to see the sophomore run for 146 yards and four touchdowns against Stanford. While that performance likely isn’t replicable, this is a very favorable matchup with a Washington team that is 127th in rush D success rate and 124th in EPA per run play defensively.
Fade – Non-starters. We’re considering Deshaun Fenwick an honorary 1B co-starter here for the sake of this article. This offense is seven players. DJU, Martinez and Fenwick in the backfield, two receivers who dominate the target share and a potential All-Conference tight end. Nobody else is worth rostering.
Bargain Bin – RB Deshaun Fenwick ($4,300) 75-28 advantage in favor of Martinez in the last month in terms of rushing attempts, but Fenwick is still averaging eight touches a game in that span, and this does feel like a run-heavy Oregon State approach on Saturday given the conditions.
Pivot Play – TE Jack Velling ($4,300) The sophomore tight end will be an All-Pac 12 first teamer this time next year if he continues this trajectory. Third on the team in targets (47) with 50 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games. Washington is allowing the 32nd most fantasy points in the country to tight ends. More than double the receiving touchdowns than the next closest Oregon State pass-catcher.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Both Silas Bolden and Anthony Gould are options, considering the top-heavy target share where they combine for 42% of the targets and a fourth of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Similar to Washington, I would not stack the two together in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: Mizzou -10.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Mizzou 34 – UF 23.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Eugene Wilson ($6,700) and / or WR Ricky Pearsall ($6,900) Mizzou is a far better defense than LSU, but the situation is identical otherwise to last week. Double-digit underdog in a potentially high-scoring affair that’ll force Florida to throw the football. Eight or more targets for both Wilson and Pearsall in each of the last four games played, so I don’t hate pairing them together in a lineup either. The Missouri defense is 112th nationally in pass attempts per game against them (36) so expect the Gators to be chuckin’ on Saturday night.
Fade – WR Kahleil Jackson ($3,700) It looked like at one point Jackson, a former walk-on, was developing into a complementary third option behind Wilson and Pearsall, but appears he didn’t even start last week, giving way to Marcus Burke. Jackson finished with just two targets and zero catches. I’d stick to the main components in the Florida passing game and not mess with the WR3.
Bargain Bin – TE Arlis Boardingham ($4,100) Tight ends have found success this season against this Mizzou defense with three players scoring 12 or more fantasy points vs. the Tigers. Kansas State’s Ben Sinnott had a field day against the Mizzou linebackers with 24 fantasy points. Boardingham has been targeted seven times in three of the last five games.
Pivot Play – RB Montrell Johnson ($6,100) I’m not sure how much success Florida will find on the ground against Missouri on Saturday, as the Tigers completely unraveled the Tennessee run game a week ago, limiting Jaylen Wright to just 22 yards. The last three opponents, including national title favorites Georgia, have all averaged under four yards a carry against Missouri the last three weeks. That said, Johnson offers quite a bit in the passing game, now sitting third on the team with 29 receptions on 40 targets.
Best of the Rest – QB Graham Mertz ($7,500) As we stated above, teams are throwing the ball a ton against Mizzou in 2023, averaging 36 pass attempts per. So volume alone could lead to a successful fantasy outing for Mertz. The Tigers are allowing 21.5 FPPG to quarterbacks and are 85th in pass D success rate. Far better at defending the run vs. the pass. RB Trevor Etienne ($5,900) had the big day against LSU with three rushing scores on 18 carries, but last week’s performance from the Missouri run D has scared me off of the Florida backs, especially given it’s still a 55-45 split.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Cody Schrader ($6,500) The Missouri RB coach promised us in the offseason that the Tigers would have a 1,000-yard back in 2023. He was right. Schrader had an historic day for Missouri last week with over 200 rushing yards, while adding in 100 yards receiving in the demolishing of Tennessee. After starting out as one of the top run defenses in the country, Florida’s defense has fallen off the rails, allowing over 4.5 yards per carry in each of the last four games, including 329 yards last week on the ground to LSU.
Fade – RB Nathaniel Peat ($4,500) Just 10 carries over the last four games as Schrader has completely taken over the backfield. Don’t pay mind to Schrader’s injury tag on DraftKings. Missouri has been listing their players as questionable all season, yet still wind up playing on Saturdays…and playing well.
Bargain Bin – WR Mookie Cooper ($4,700) Lowest I would go in terms of salary for a Mizzou player. Second on the team in routes run and third in targets (37), Cooper has had a nice season with 400 receiving yards and an 83.8% catch rate.
Pivot Play – WR Luther Burden ($7,600) The star sophomore is still finding ways to produce, scoring a touchdown in each of the last three games, but still evidently clear that he’s not healthy. Snap counts have diminished ever so slightly and is averaging just six targets a game over the last month – 11 targets per in the first six weeks. SEC wide receivers have dominated the Gators with six different players having scored 16 or more fantasy points on this defense.
Best of the Rest – QB Brady Cook ($7,900) Would venture a guess that Florida will put much of their attention on stopping Schrader after his performance last week, which could open things up for Cook and this passing game. And this is a secondary that is already getting torched by quarterbacks, allowing the 11th most fantasy points in the country to QBs. Also like the Cook is running more than he was the first half of the season with 50 or more yards on the ground in each of the last three games. WR Theo Wease ($5,600) is first on the team in routes run and second in targets (66), but primarily only interested in him if Burden were to sit.
Injury Notes – We’ll probably hear word from Pete Thamel as I’m writing this on Saturday morning to whether Luther Burden is a go or not.
Kentucky vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: SC -1.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: SC 26.5 – UK 25
Weather: 61 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Ray Davis ($7,400) Guaranteed volume against a middle of the road run defense. It’s quite simple. Davis will touch the football 18+ times on Saturday and has seen increased utilization in the passing game this season for a team that hasn’t normally thrown the football to its running backs in the past. South Carolina has held its last three opponents to under four yards a carry, but those teams were Vanderbilt (self-explanatory), Jacksonville State and a Texas A&M team without its starting running back.
Fade – Backup RBs. Davis owns 66% of Kentucky’s rushing attempts this season, and that number jumps to 73% when just looking at running backs.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Realistically only considering Ray Davis, but not rostering any Kentucky players below $4.4k.
Pivot Play – QB Devin Leary ($6,000) The question is if Leary is a viable punt play at the SuperFlex to pair with Jayden Daniels? I’ll probably lean in another direction because we have a non-runner with an average game total, but the South Carolina secondary makes Leary an intriguing option. The Gamecocks give up just 17.9 FPPG to quarterbacks this season but are 94th in pass D success rate, 100th in EPA per pass play and dead last in the SEC in yards given up through the air.
Best of the Rest – Instead of rostering Leary, I might look to one of the wideouts instead against this susceptible secondary. The issue is which one, because the numbers are practically identical between Tayvion Robinson, Dane Key and Barion Brown that it’s difficult to choose from. And that’s where we maybe can find some clues because slot receivers have dominated the Gamecocks. Top seven (!) receivers in terms of fantasy points scored in their respective matchup with South Carolina all play in the slot. Bodes well for Robinson who is relatively cheap at $4.4k. I’ll have some exposure there.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Legette ($6,300) A lot on the line Saturday for SC at home playing an SEC rival and needing to win out in order to make bowl eligibility. Teams lean on their best players in those situations, and Legette has been that guy over the course of the season, but specifically the last two weeks with over 330 receiving yards on 26 targets in that span. Wide receivers facing Kentucky this season average seven fantasy points above their seasonal average.
Fade – WR O’Mega Blake ($3,700) Blake is second on the team in routes run in 2023 behind Legette and did find the end-zone last week in the romp over Vandy, but snap counts show he’s playing second fiddle to prized freshman WR Nyck Harbor ($3,700). Shane Beamer has to give his 5-star recruit playing time to keep him in Columbia for 2024.
Bargain Bin – TE Joshua Simon ($3,100) Super cheap for a player that has 13 receptions on 16 targets in the last two games. The issue? Trey Knox is back in the lineup, and Simon’s box score shows a clear disparity in production for when Knox is in and out of the starting rotation. Could still roll the dice in hopes that SC rides the hot hand.
Pivot Play – QB Spencer Rattler ($6,900) Back-to-back 30-point performances for Rattler, completing over 73% of his passes in the last two weeks. But the competition level must be factored in. Still believe that Rattler can be a viable option as this is a bottom-half SEC pass defense in Kentucky that is 11th in yards allowed, gives up 17.1 FPPG to quarterbacks and is 121st in pass D success rate (worse than South Carolina).
Best of the Rest – RB Mario Anderson ($5,600) We spoke about guaranteed volume with Ray Davis above, but what about Anderson with South Carolina being down its top two backup RBs with injury. The Kentucky run defense is the strength of the unit, allowing just 12.9 FPPG to RB1s and 24th in EPA per run play, but 15+ touches from Anderson is a near lock as long as SC doesn’t trail by double-digits early.
Injury Notes – Those that have previously been injured – Juice Wells, Dak Joyner and Juju McDowell – all remain out this week. TE Trey Knox ($4,200) will be available.
Syracuse vs. Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: GT -6.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: GT 30 – Syr 23.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Syracuse:
Going to keep this one short because we realistically have just two options. With Garrett Shrader less than 100% – though I question that given he did a backflip against Pittsburgh – the Orange ran the ball 61 times against the Panthers with just eight passing attempts on the day. HC Dino Babers was coy about the game plan for Saturday, but I don’t think we can risk playing Schrader or any of the receivers with another run-based approach being a distinct possibility. RB LeQuint Allen ($7,700) is obviously an option, facing one of the worst run defenses in the country. Tech allows over 21 FPPG to RB1s.
The wildcard for this entire weekend, both in DFS and College Fantasy, is TE Dan Villari ($4,100). The former Michigan transfer had been ascending lately as a viable pass-catching option, but the coaching staff turned him into Taysom Hill last week as Villari ran for 154 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts, while also completing three passes. No insights into what Syracuse’s plan of attack is for Saturday, but if there’s a defense to break out this run-heavy approach against, Georgia Tech is a top candidate.
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Eric Singleton ($4,800) DK continues to price the star freshman too low, but we’ll continue to reap the benefits by inserting him into our lineups. Quiet day against Clemson on the surface level with 28 receiving yards and 8.1 fantasy points, but was targeted 14 times last Saturday, almost half of the total team target share. There’s really only been one game this season to where the Georgia Tech offense has been completely shut down, so there’s more evidence than not to suggest a bounce back performance.
Fade – WR Malik Rutherford ($4,900) Tied for first on the team in receptions (38), second in targets (55) and first in routes run, but we need to cut corners in some places to spend up on the LSU pieces. Rutherford’s 7.0 aDOT is uninspiring and you need heavy volume if all your targets are within seven yards of the line of scrimmage. Rutherford has been targets just six times in the last two games.
Bargain Bin – WR Avery Boyd ($3,000) Boyd didn’t start but saw his most extended playing time since Week 4, sharing snaps equally with Dominick Blaylock, and was targeted three times vs. Clemson. Extreme longshot play.
Pivot Play – RB Jamal Haynes ($5,000) The converted receiver just continues to get it done on the ground, hitting 100 rushing yards for the second straight week despite being down multiple touchdowns against one of the better fronts in the ACC. Syracuse allows just 12.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 9th in EPA per run play defensively, so wouldn’t go overboard with Haynes exposure. But he got the job done last week in a game script that did not favor running back production at all.
Best of the Rest – QB Haynes King ($8,500) 27 fantasy points or more scored in all but three games this season for the former Texas A&M transfer whose been one of the biggest surprises in the sport. The danger here is how many possessions King and the GT offense get if Syracuse goes run-heavy again. Pitt ran just 49 offensive plays in Week 11, it’s lowest number of the year. Just three quarterbacks this season have scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Orange in 2023.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: UT -7.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: UT 28 – ISU 19.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Baxter ($5,700) Something tells me this game might be a snoozer. Two good defenses, cooler weather, and Texas without their best player on offense with Jonathon Brooks now out for the season with a torn ACL. I do think Baxter will get the lion’s share of the carries on Saturday, but expecting the true freshman on the road at night in his first start to get a Brooks-like workload might be overvaluing him. Texas still has talented pieces in the backfield in Jaydon Blue and Keilan Robinson that can assist. Iowa State is also allowing just 13.7 FPPG to RB1s and 14th in rush D success rate. Lot of rambling to say that Baxter is the best play on the Texas side, but don’t believe I’ll have many Longhorns in my lineups.
Fade – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,400) Maybe he’s due for a breakout, but Sanders simply hasn’t been as effective this season after his ankle injury in Week 5. Playing time hasn’t diminished, but Sanders has failed to hit 50 receiving yards in each of the last six weeks. Chamon Metayer and Isaac Rex both scored 14 fantasy points against the Cyclones earlier in the year.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone below $5.7k on the Texas side.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,300) Really doubt I’ll play Ewers as we won’t have enough capital to spend at the other positions if trying to pair him with Jayden Daniels. But the sophomore quarterback did find success against this same 3-3-5 defense a year ago, throwing for 172 yards and three scores. We need 30+ from Ewers at this pricing, though. Iowa State is 14th in pass D success rate and allowing only 16.2 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Xavier Worthy shined last year in this matchup, catching eight passes for 72 yards and two touchdowns against the Iowa State secondary. He’d be the preferred choice this week over Adonai Mitchell as deep shots aren’t prevalent against this style of defense the Cyclones employ. 60% of Worthy’s targets are between the LOS of scrimmage and the first down markers where Texas will look to exploit in the passing game.
Injury Notes – RB Jonathon Brooks ($3,000) Sadly, out for the season with a torn ACL.
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaylin Noel ($6,000) or Jayden Higgins ($5,100) As for which one to prioritize over the other, I’m not entirely sure to be honest. No correlation as to if boundary or slot receivers succeed most against this Texas secondary. It’s a secondary that has shown to be vulnerable too over the last several weeks, now allowing the 34th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The duo over Higgins and Noel combine for 46% of the team’s target share and over half of the receiving touchdowns.
Fade – RBs. Don’t expect Iowa State to find much, if any success, running the football on Saturday. Iowa State is 129th in rush play success rate in what might now be a three-man rotation between Abu Sama, Eli Sanders and Cartevious Norton. Texas allows the sixth fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs. No thanks.
Bargain Bin – TE Benjamin Brahmer ($3,100) Lot of cheap tight ends on this slate. Brahmer is third on the team in every receiving category, with at least two receptions in each of the last four games. Three tight ends have scored 11 or more fantasy points on the Longhorns this season.
Pivot Play – QB Rocco Becht ($5,800) Simply put, Iowa State is likely to have to throw to win on Saturday. How successful the Cyclones are at throwing in cold weather against a tough defense remains to be seen. But Becht should throw it 30+ times, and the Texas secondary has been leaky of late, allowing over 300 yards in three of the last four games, and rank 12th in yards given up through the air in the Big 12.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Not considering anyone aside from those listed above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia State vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -31.5
O/U Total: 73.5
Implied Score: LSU 52.5 – GSU 21
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Georgia State:
Top Play(s) – QB Darren Grainger ($6,900) 16.6-point projection isn’t inspiring, but I “think” I like Grainger most as the QB to pair with Daniels. The LSU defense doesn’t particularly scare me off here, allowing the 19th most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. It’s Georgia State’s recent stretch here, getting blown out in each of its last three games. That trend is what has me most cautious about rostering Grainger here, not necessarily the matchup.
Fade – TE Ahmon Green ($4,200) Two targets and two receiving yards in the last two games. Better options at this pricing.
Bargain Bin – WR Cadarrius Thompson ($3,100) Teams WR3 with Ja’Cyais Credle out of the lineup, with at least three targets in four of the last five games. Production doesn’t match the time spent on the field, but Thompson has played over 80% of the offensive snaps in the last four games. Extreme longshot that I won’t risk.
Pivot Play – RB Marcus Carroll ($6,700) Guaranteed volume and low ownership is the argument. Carroll leads the country, averaging 24.4 rushing attempts per game. LSU is 113th in rush D success rate, allowing 18 FPPG to RB1s.
Best of the Rest – WR Robert Lewis ($6,600) or WR Taillique Williams ($5,200) Lewis has shown to be capable of breaking a slate this season, scoring 43 points in a win over Charlotte earlier in the year. Team leader in revery single receiving category, facing an LSU defense giving up 18 FPPG to WR1s. Lewis and Williams combine for 11 of the team’s 14 receiving touchdowns this season. Season-high nine targets last week for Williams in the blowout vs. Appalachian State, but a 7.7 aDOT means he’s not targeted much down the field.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($10,700) The last time we had a lock in DFS was Ollie Gordon and look how that panned out. We’re going back to the well, though, starting our lineup compositions with Daniels who should put up gaudy numbers against vs. a G5 opponent to keep him as the favorite in the Heisman conversation.
Fade – n/a. Implied team total in the 50 against a decent G5 opponent means the starters probably play into the 4th quarter.
Bargain Bin – RB Kaleb Jackson ($3,000) I will no doubt have Jackson in some lineups tonight as LSU will have limited depth in the backfield now that Logan Diggs has been ruled out, and John Emery Jr. will miss the remainder of the season due to injury. Noah Cain did play more, and I suspect he’ll do so again Saturday, but Jackson impressed with limited touches, rushing for 19 yards and a touchdown on four attempts. Great opportunity tonight for the freshman.
Pivot Play – RB Josh Williams ($4,100) Same logic applies above. No Diggs or Emery means Williams will shoulder the rushing load as long as this game is competitive. Georgia State is 113th in rush D success rate facing one of the best offensive lines in the country.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. If you can fit Malik Nabers or Brian Thomas Jr., do it. Georgia State allows the 25th most fantasy points in the country to opposing receivers. Kyren Lacy’s playing time saw a noticeable hit last week and was targeted just one time for reasons unbeknownst to me. Chris Hilton was the beneficiary, targeted three times. I’d probably avoid the WR3 spot unless we find some clarity. TE Mason Taylor has failed to hit 20 receiving yards in each of the last four games, so I’d probably stay away there too. Georgia State is one of the worst pass defenses in the country, though, ranking 123rd in pass D success rate, so you can make the argument for jamming as many LSU pieces in as possible.
Injury Notes – RB Logan Diggs ($5,800) Ruled out for tonight, reported by Pete Thamel.
