Tulane vs. Navy
Point-Spread: Tul -6.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tul 30.5 – Navy 24
Weather: 56 degrees / 1% rain / 13 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Makhi Hughes ($7,600) Top play on the slate. Two of the last three running backs to face Navy this season have scored over 23 fantasy points in their respective matchups. The Midshipmen are 113th in rush D success rate and 74th in EPA per run play. Hughes gets all the carries for Tulane. You do the math.
Fade – RB Shaadie Clayton-Johnson ($3,300) Prime transfer candidate after this season as Clayton-Johnson has completely fallen out of the rotation. Not that Tulane uses backup running backs much with Hughes on the roster, but Arnold Barnes and Trey Cornist were getting run ahead of SCJ in the prior game.
Bargain Bin – TE Alex Bauman ($3,200) Volume is down for Bauman under Tulane’s new coaching staff, averaging just 2.4 targets per game – that number was 3.6 targets per game a year ago. Bauman is still finding the end-zone, though, with as many receiving touchdowns (5) in eight games as he did in 13 games in 2023.
Pivot Play – Tulane WRs. They’re all cheap, and Tulane doesn’t rotate at all beyond Mario Williams, Yulkeith Brown and Dontae Fleming who account for over 60% of the team’s receiving production this year. Navy is allowing a combined 40 fantasy points per game to opposing WR rooms, which average 23% more fantasy production than their seasonal average when facing the Midshipmen.
Best of the Rest – QB Darian Mensah ($5,800) Mensah hit big for us the last time he was on the main slate, scoring 20 fantasy points with three passing touchdowns at $5k. Salary is up slightly, but this probably isn’t the matchup to consider the redshirt freshman as Navy will slow down the pace and limit positions. Navy is giving up just 17.8 FPPG to quarterbacks and are top 40 nationally in both pass D success rate and EPA per play.
Injury Notes – n/a
Navy:
Total team fade most likely as it appears defenses are starting to figure out this Navy offense, and QB Blake Horvath ($9,300) is both expensive, and not scoring fantasy points at the same clip he was back in September and October. Notre Dame shut this offense down. We’ll throw out the Rice performance with weather causing an 8-hour delay. Both of those make sense. Scoring just 17 fantasy points against a mediocre USF defense is exposing some of the limitations Navy has offensively. Tulane has the No. 2 scoring defense in the AAC and is also No. 2 in fewest yards allowed per game in the conference. 70% of Navy’s offensive production this season has come from either Horvath, RB/WR Eli Heidenreich ($6,500), RB Brandon Chatman ($3,300) or FB Alex Tecza ($4,500) so if interested in rostering a Midshipmen in your lineup, those are the only options. Tulane is 9th in overall defensive success rate, 8th in EPA per pass play defensively and 28th in EPA per run play. We’re not expecting a shootout.
Texas vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Tex -14.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Tex 36 – Ark 21.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 1% rain / 11 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – TE Gunnar Helm ($3,100) No reason at all that the team leader in receptions and routes run should be listed at this salary. Adding fuel to the fire with this Helm suggestion, Arkansas has struggled mightily to defend tight ends this season, allowing 13.7 FPPG to the position, including 31 fantasy points two weeks ago to Ole Miss tight end Dae’Quan Wright.
Fade – RB Jerrick Gibson ($5,300) We’re estimating here that Gibson’s extended run against Florida was because the Longhorns were up 35-0 at halftime. To be fair to Gibson, he was getting first half reps along with Jaydon Blue and Tre Wisner, but his 16 rushing attempts were more than he’s had in each of the last four games combined. We’re predicting that Gibson moves back to his typical RB3 role on Saturday. And even if that didn’t occur and Gibson is a mainstay, then it’ll still be a three-way split backfield against an opponent that is 7th nationally in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Matthew Golden ($3,400) I mean, I get it, Texas spreads the ball around so much that the Longhorn pass-catchers don’t provide a ton of fantasy value. But Golden hast three touchdowns in the last two games and is second on the team in receptions. Too cheap.
Pivot Play – RB Tre Wisner ($5,900) or RB Jaydon Blue ($5,500) Texas throws the football to its running backs more than any other team in the country. Last four games for Wisner – 17 receptions on 22 targets. Blue leads Texas in targets despite playing in just eight games. Arkansas doesn’t allow a ton of fantasy points to running backs, but Blue / Wisner’s ability as pass-catchers could make them valuable on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,700) Ewers is in the middle pocket of QB salaries that doesn’t warrant starting him this week with just a 22-point projection. The Razorbacks allow 21.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, though were recently lit up by Jaxson Dart for 500+ passing yards. Arkansas is 121st in pass D success rate this season. WR Isaiah Bond ($5,000), DeAndre Moore ($3,800) and WR Ryan Wingo ($3,100) are all in play, facing a team that is giving up 45.1 collective fantasy points per week to opposing wide receivers. Wingo played the most snaps of any Texas receiver last week against the Gators, fwiw.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,900) Armstrong accounts for 30% of Arkansas’ targets with over double the amount of receiving yards than the next closest wideout on the team. Eight or more targets for Armstrong in every single game played in 2024, with a game script that will likely force Arkansas to pass.
Fade – QB Taylen Green ($8,200) Easy choice to fade. No. 1 pass defense in the country with Texas, allowing just 7.5 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Hasz ($3,200) Hasz seems to have ditched the nagging injuries that were plaguing him at the onset of the season and has found hit footing the last two games with a combined 136 receiving yards and three touchdowns, converting on all nine of his targets. The best two tight ends Texas faced this year – Colston Loveland and Eli Stowers – combined for 26 fantasy points.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($7,200) Tough to depend on Jackson who is coming back after missing the last three games due to injury. That said, Texas run defense STRUGGLED against Florida, allowing over 150 yards to the Gators’ top two backs. Jackson will be extra motivated this week being from the Dallas area and facing his former team.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Sategna ($3,800) Second on the team in targets (41), receptions (29) and routes run. The only other considerable option among Arkansas pass-catchers beyond Armstrong and Hasz.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah vs. Colorado
Point-Spread: Col -10.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Col 29 – Utah 18.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Micah Bernard ($7,100) Top choice by default because there’s nobody left on the Utah offense. Colorado’s run defense remains the weak point on that side of the ball, allowing 27 FPPG to opposing RBs and ranked 80th in EPA per run play defensively. Five RBs have scored at least 20 fantasy points this season vs. the Buffs.
Fade – QB Isaac Wilson ($7,200) Wilson is being forced back into the lineup after being benched last week because Brandon Rose suffered a season-ending injury. No Money Parks, No Mycah Pittman, No Brant Kuithe means no thanks to the Utah passing game.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($3,000) Would anticipate more tight end usage with the defections at wide receiver for the Utes and Ryan, the UCLA transfer, will step into the TE1 role with Kuithe done for the year. Not much production in 2024 but did have a few good games last year with the Bruins, catching three touchdown passes.
Pivot Play – WR Dorian Singer ($5,100) Money Parks is out for the season. As is Brant Kuithe. And Mycah Pittman left the program. Singer is the only starting receiver left, and has remained productive through all the QB changes, with seven or more targets in each of the last seven games. The downside to Singer is that he’ll likely be shadowed by Travis Hunter all afternoon.
Best of the Rest – WR Munir McClain ($3,000) McClain will be the WR2 opposite Singer on the outside, as he played 91% of the team’s offensive snaps last week vs. BYU.
Injury Notes – Parks, Kuithe, Pittman and Jaylon Glover are all out due to various reasons (injuries, transfer).
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Travis Hunter ($9,700) The two games this season where Travis Hunter failed to score 20 fantasy points was when he was injured / limited. He’s not anymore, as evidenced by back-to-back games with nine receptions against Cincinnati and Texas Tech, with a season-high 16 targets this past Saturday. Steep price to pay, but I love the assurance that you’re going to get 20 fantasy points from Hunter on a week-to-week basis, especially in a Heisman race.
Fade – RB Dallan Hayden ($3,700) Again, we do not understand why Hayden is priced higher than the starting running back Isaiah Augustave, who has out-carried Hayden in each of the last three games. Utah’s run defense is not the dominant group it’s been in year’s past, allowing four of the last five opponents to average over four yards a carry, so we don’t mind having some exposure to Augustave.
Bargain Bin – WR Will Sheppard ($3,600) Contemplated putting Sheppard as Colorado’s top play because this salary is far too low for a player that has caught a touchdown in four of the last five games, and tied a season-best with 10 targets this past week vs. Texas Tech. That slow start to the year for Sheppard seems to be all about acclimation with his new teammates. He’s certainly acclimated now.
Pivot Play – WR LaJohntay Wester ($6,100) Team leader in routes run, while second in targets, receptions and touchdowns (8). Wester has posted four or more receptions in all but one game this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Drelon Miller ($3,000) Miller has seen his playing time rise with some injuries in the Colorado receiver room, playing 50% of the team’s snaps over the last month. Should Jimmy Horn Jr. be unavailable, Miller would step into the WR4 role, which has been productive still as the fourth option in the last year and a half.
Injury Notes – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($3,700) Questionable with a lower body injury. Somebody on the CFFSite discord or on Twitter please let me know if it’s true or not that Horn injured himself slipping on a tortilla, LOL.
Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: Clem -10
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: Clem 32 – Pitt 22
Weather: 53 degrees / 10% rain / 7 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($7,300) The College Football Playoff is still attainable for Clemson so expect the Tigers to continue to ride their horse in the backfield in Mafah who has four 100-yard rushing performances in the last five games with six rushing TDs in that span. First four games for Mafah – 10.3 carries per contest. Last five games – 23.6 carries per game. Pitt run defense ranks fourth in the ACC in yards allowed per game, but some cracks in the armor of late with eight of the 12 rushing touchdowns allowed having come in the last three games.
Fade – WR Adam Randall ($3,500) We’re coming down to the last few opportunities we’ll get to fade Adam Randall who is likely to be a transfer candidate after this season. Probably ends up at like Florida State or something where overrated 5-stars seemingly end up. Randall played just three snaps last week vs. Virginia Tech, having fully lost his starting job to the two freshmen receivers on the roster.
Bargain Bin – WR TJ Moore ($3,200) or WR Bryant Wesco ($3,800) No reason whatsoever that Randall should have a higher salary than Moore. 25 of Moore’s 38 targets this season have come in the last four games. As for Wesco, 30 of his 36 targets this season have come in his last four games played and is second in routes run behind Antonio Williams among Clemson receivers in that span.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,600) The last several weeks have looked like the 2023 version of Cade Klubnik, completing just 52% of his throws against two average statistical defenses in Virginia Tech and Louisville. Pitt allowing just 15.8 FPPG this season to opposing QBs, and not a single quarterback has scored more than 24 fantasy points against the Panthers in 2024. You’ll need more than 24 fantasy points from Klubnik to hit value at this pricing.
Best of the Rest – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,000) Second on the team in targets (51) and receptions (35), facing a Pitt defense that has allowed five tight ends to score 13 or more fantasy points this season, making Briningstool one of the top bargain options on the slate. WR Antonio Williams ($5,900) is fine at his pricing, leading the team in all receiving categories, but prefer the spend-down options of Stool, Wesco and Moore better.
Injury Notes – n/a
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($9,600) Reid gets the nod here simply by default as the Pitt passing game sputters out of control. Reid has a bounce-back week against UVA, averaging over five yards a carry, but his production has dipped over the last three games, coincidentally the same time as Holstein has struggled as well. Reid is possible here simply because of his usage in the passing game, ranked second on the team in targets (49) and receiving touchdowns (4). Just one running back has scored more than 18 fantasy points vs. Clemson this year, and at this price, you’ll need at least 25 fantasy points from Reid.
Fade – QB Eli Holstein ($8,600) Holstein left the Virginia contest in the third quarter due to injury and did not return. Sounds as though he’ll start this week, but his numbers have dropped dramatically since the start of the season. 15 touchdowns to three interceptions in the first five games. Just two touchdowns and three picks in the last 15 quarters of football. Injury concerns + bad play = easy fade.
Bargain Bin – WR Raphael Williams ($3,700) Williams has been the most consistent Pitt receiver outside of Konata Mumpfield and would be our top choice among Pittsburgh pass-catchers should Mumpfield be unavailable. Williams leads the team in routes run and has been targeted at least six times in five of the last six games.
Pivot Play – WR Censere Lee ($3,500) Lee would start in place of Mumpfield if he were unavailable on Saturday. The former Western Carolina transfer hasn’t made much of an impact since the opening week but ran the third most routes among Pitt receivers in the last two games.
Best of the Rest – WR Kenny Johnson ($3,900) I’m surprised Johnson hasn’t gotten more targets as the season has gone along, averaging just 5.1 per game. Johnson has a 76% catch rate with just one drop this season and is second among Pitt wideouts in yards per route run.
Injury Notes – WR Konata Mumpfield ($5,800) Questionable with an undisclosed injury. You’ll find out exactly nothing about Pitt injuries until the game already has started so long as Pat Narduzzi is in charge.
Syracuse vs. California
Point-Spread: Cal -7.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Cal 31.5 – Syra 24
Weather: 54 degrees / 9% rain / 5 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($8,600) The matchup is fine – Cal has allowed five ACC running backs to score 17 or more fantasy points against them this season and rank 72nd in EPA per run play. Usage in the passing game is what separates Allen from so many of the RBs on the slate, now with 47 receptions on 58 targets, 21 of which coming in the last three games alone. We love players with multiple avenues of scoring fantasy points, and Allen fits the bill better than any on the slate.
Fade – QB Kyle McCord ($9,300) Only situation you’re playing McCord here is in a game stack situation in the hopes this shoots out. Which is possible, fwiw. But the QB on the other side is $1.6k cheaper with a higher projection. Cal’s strength on that side of the ball is defending the pass, ranked 49th in EPA per play and only allowing 15.2 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Bargain Bin – WR Darrell Gill Jr. ($3,100) Maybe we should pump the breaks on the Justus Ross-Simmons hype. Both receivers were targeted three times last week vs. Boston College, but Gill tripled the number of snaps played (67% to 27%) over JRS.
Pivot Play – Stack Multiple Syracuse Pass-Catchers without McCord. While we still like Allen as a good play this week, the fact of the matter is that the Cuse have not run the football all that effectively this year, ranked 111th in rush success rate. Hence, why Syracuse is No. 3 nationally in pass play percentage. As we saw last week with Oronde Gadsden and Jackson Meeks, double-digit targets for multiple Syracuse pass-catchers is very possible.
Best of the Rest – Top four of Oronde Gadsden, Trebor Pena, Jackson Meeks and Darrell Gill dominated the snap share, so would focus on those four if interested in Cuse receivers. Three of the top five highest-scoring performances vs. Cal this season have been from slot receivers, which would favor Pena.
Injury Notes – n/a
California:
Top Play(s) – QB Fernando Mendoza ($7,200) Last four games for Mendoza – 37, 44, 36 and 56 pass attempts as Cal has risen to 26th nationally in pass play percentage because of how inept the Bears are at running the football. The Orange are only allowing 20 FPPG to opposing QBs this season but are 98th in pass D success rate.
Fade – RB Jaydn Ott ($7,000) AND RB Jaivian Thomas ($6,000) Total fade of the Cal backfield unless we somehow get word that one of them is surprisingly out. The Bears are atrocious running the football this season, ranked 119th nationally in success rate and 116th in EPA per run play. Last week against a horrendous defense in Wake Forest is a prime example. Cal scores 46 points and the leading rusher is…. QB Fernando Mendoza.
Bargain Bin – Slot Receivers. Mikey Matthews and Trond Grizzell split time in the slot, combining for nine receptions on nine targets with a TD from the former Utah transfer Matthews. Despite playing the same position, those two also led Cal in targets (6 apiece) in Week 9 vs. Oregon State.
Pivot Play – WR Tobias Merriweather ($4,800) What a debut for the Notre Dame transfer who we consistently bet the under on his receiving props back with the Irish. Merriweather ran the third most routes among Cal pass-catchers and was targeted 10 times with six catches and a TD. Ride the hot hand again this week?
Best of the Rest – TE Jack Endries ($4,700) Noticeable dip in playing time for Endries with Corey Dyches back in the lineup, playing just 60% of the team’s offensive snaps, whereas he was above 90% when his TE counterpart was out injured. Targets were still there (6), but just 39 yards receiving which was his lowest number since Week 4. WR Nyziah Hunter ($4,500) didn’t get the headlines that Merriweather did, but still had 75 yards receiving with the most routes run on the team vs. Wake Forest.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU vs. Florida
Point-Spread: LSU -4
O/U Total: 55
Implied Score: LSU 29.5 – UF 25.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 1% rain / 8 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Kyren Lacy ($8,000) We’ll start by saying nobody on the LSU side of things projects well this week, and those that due are priced up to a point that we’re unlikely to have heavy exposure. Lacy gets the nod for top billing here because of his target volume this season, targeted 8 or more times in all but one game this season. The spread is close enough that LSU will still need to throw.
Fade – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($9,100) Not an outright fade, but there are four QBs in the $7k range on the slate that have a similar or better projection than Nussmeier this week. Florida’s pass defense is the relative strength on that side of the ball, ranking 54th in success rate and allowing just 19.1 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($3,700) Rinse repeat every week until Taylor is priced above $4k. Florida is allowing 111.7 FPPG to tight ends, and Taylor has played 100% of the team’s offensive snaps in four of the last five games.
Pivot Play – RB Caden Durham ($6,200) The game got away from the Tigers early against Bama, so LSU was forced to ditch the run despite Durham breaking off a 45-yard run in the first quarter. Some RBs in split backfield situations like Durham have found success in recent weeks against the Gators with Jaydon Blue (21 fpts), Nate Frazier (16 fpts) and Mark Fletcher (17 fpts). I think we see LSU have more balance offensively on Saturday, because throwing the ball 40+ times has led to two straight losses.
Best of the Rest – WR Aaron Anderson ($5,500) Three touchdowns in the last five games for Anderson who has at least three receptions in every game this season. A lot of separation among the LSU wide receiver room in terms of snap counts with Lacy, Anderson and WR CJ Daniels ($3,700) all playing over 65% of the snaps vs. Alabama last Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Jadan Baugh ($3,500) or RB Ja’Kobi Jackson ($3,400). One or even starting both Baugh and Jackson in the same lineup is a possible scenario given how run-heavy the Gators offense has been in the last two games. Really impressive what this duo has done against Georgia and Texas with no semblance at all of a Florida passing game. This past week the duo combined for over 200+ rushing yards in the blowout loss to the Longhorns.
Fade – QBs. Writing this up on Wednesday morning so no official status as to who will start at quarterback this weekend between Aidan Warner and DJ Lagway. One Florida insider as of Wednesday predicted that Lagway would start, as he looked close to returning last week, warming up in full pads. His return would boost our interest in the Florida wideouts, but Lagway wasn’t fantasy relevant when he did start, and Aidan Warner certainly isn’t someone we’re considering.
Bargain Bin – WR Chimere Dike ($3,400) With Elijhah Badger out of the lineup last week, Dike got 38% of the team’s targets (9), and the senior receiver has played 97% of the team’s snaps in each of the last two games.
Pivot Play – Backup Wideouts. We’d strongly advised to not playing any Florida receivers not named Chimere Dike, or possibly Elijhah Badger if he wound up not playing. Looking at last week vs. Texas, it was a rotation to fill Badger’s spot at wideout with Ja’Quavion Fraziars, Marcus Burke and Aidan Mizell. That trio combined for just two receptions for 11 yards. Expect Florida to run the ball, and then run it some more with the combination of Baugh and Jackson.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Your choices on the Florida side are Baugh, Jackson or Dike.
Injury Notes – We’ll be monitoring the statuses of the Florida QB situation and potentially Montrell Johnson. Elijhah Badger is also questionable.
Boston College vs. SMU
Point-Spread: SMU -16.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: SMU 35 – BC 18.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 3% rain / 10 mph winds
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – WR Lewis Bond ($4,900) Bond is now up to 34% of Boston College’s team target share, and has been targeted at least seven times in each of the last six games. Against Syracuse last week, BC threw 13 passes, eight of which went to Bond.
Fade – QB Grayson James ($6,700) The former FIU transfer will start in place of Thomas Castellanos, as announced by head coach Bill O’Brien. Slight upgrade as a passer and huge downgrade as a runner.
Bargain Bin – TEs. Not surprising that tight end usage is prevalent under Bill O’Brien. He uses three of them – Kamari Morales, Jeremiah Franklin and even Reed Harris who functions more as a WR-hybrid, playing 93% of his snaps out wide last week. SMU has struggled to defend the position this season, allowing 16 FPPG to tight ends. BC will have to throw more than 13 times this week.
Pivot Play – WR / TE Reed Harris ($3,200) Harris has not been an effective player this season, with just five receptions on 18 targets. So why is he mentioned here? The 6-foot-5 redshirt freshman played 92% of the team’s snaps last week which was the most of any Boston College player.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Boston College bludgeoned Syracuse on the ground with Kye Robichaux and Jordan McDonald combining for well over 300+ yards on the ground and three scores. Robichaux is always in the mix as the team’s RB1, but McDonald got his first extended look of the season with Treshaun Ward and Turbo Richard out of the lineup due to injury, so double-check their status if interested in the BC backfield. We’d be tentative in doing so, though, facing an SMU defense that is allowing just 19.8 FPPG combined to opposing backfields and No. 1 nationally in EPA per run play defensively.
Injury Notes – QB Thomas Castellanos ($6,700) This was the concern we had in the preseason with Castellanos and him meshing with the new coaching staff. It was reported on Tuesday that Castellanos was stepping away from the team for a few days after being benched in favor of Grayson James. We are fully expecting Castellanos to transfer after this season in favor of a team that will better utilize his running abilities.
SMU:
Top Play(s) – QB Kevin Jennings ($7,700) It’s a rare sighting if Jennings ever hurts your DFS lineups, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in four of the last five games. Boston College is a middle-of-the-road pass defense, ranked 12th in the ACC in yards allowed through the air and 109th in pass D success rate.
Fade – WR Jordan Hudson ($4,100) We know the drill by now with SMU receivers – any one of them can randomly pop at a moment’s notice. But we’ll play the odds in fading Hudson this week who played just 41% of the snaps against Pittsburgh, the lowest number among SMU’s top four receivers.
Bargain Bin – TE Matthew Hibner ($3,400) We hit big on our Hibner suggestion two weeks ago as the former Michigan transfer converted on all three of his targets, going for over 100+ yards and a touchdown vs. Pittsburgh. Another favorable matchup this week against a Boston College defense that has allowed four tight ends to score 11 or more fantasy points against them this season.
Pivot Play – WR Key’Shawn Smith ($3,500) Smith continues to look like the preferred boundary receiver between he and Jordan Hudson, doubling his snaps played in Week 10, and 50 or more receiving yards in three of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – RB Brashard Smith ($8,800) Boston College is better statistically vs. the run than the pass, ranking 18th in success rate and 21st in EPA. That said, three of the highest-scoring fantasy performances for RBs against this BC defense have come in its last three games with Isaac Brown (25 fpts), Bhayshul Tuten (53 fpts) and this past week with LeQuint Allen (26.7 fpts). This group is trending downward at stopping the run. I would not discount playing RB LJ Johnson ($3,800) either with four rushing touchdowns in his last four games played.
Injury Notes – WR Jake Bailey ($3,700) Game-time decision per the Dallas Morning News. Should he not go, WR Roderick Daniels ($3,900) is the primary beneficiary, running the most routes of any SMU wideout in Week 10, running 93% of his routes in the slot.
Louisville vs. Stanford
Point-Spread: Lou -20
O/U Total: 58
Implied Score: Lou 39 – Stan 19
Weather: 58 degrees / 13% rain / 6 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – QB Tyler Shough ($7,900) Stanford ranks 16th among 17 teams in the ACC in yards allowed per game through the air, rank 114th in pass D success rate and 119th in EPA per pass play defensively. The Cardinal also allowed 26.8 FPPG this season to opposing quarterbacks with four ACC QBs scoring 24 or more fantasy points against them.
Fade – n/a. Louisville players are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – Several options to choose from here. RB Duke Watson ($3,000) has emerged as the RB2 behind Isaac Brown and could get some run in a potential blowout situation. TE Mark Redman ($3,200) has been more of a factor in the passing game with the season-ending injury to Jamari Johnson, with 11 of his 19 receptions coming in the last three games. WR Chris Bell ($3,500) and WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($3,400) are too cheap for starting receivers that’ll play over 60% of the game.
Pivot Play – RB Isaac Brown ($6,700) Brown will be a popular play at this pricing with a 24-point projection. The run defense started the season well for the Cardinal, but have taken a nosedive lately, allowing 11 rushing touchdowns in the last four games, with two opponents running for over 220+ yards in that span. The bottom fell out against NC State – a team that cannot run the football – as the Wolfpack accumulated over 280 yards on the ground with multiple running backs scoring over 20 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – WR JaCorey Brooks ($7,700) Of the team’s playing this weekend, Stanford is allowing the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Brooks will find the end-zone at least once on Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Elic Ayomanor ($5,200) Finding Stanford football coverage right now is damn near impossible so you might be better off fading the entire team. Injuries of any kind for Stanford will either go unreported, because who is going to report it, or will get lost in the shuffle with more important things going on during a college football Saturday. Ayomanor gets top billing here because he continues to get the job done in a lost season, with over 200 yards receiving in the last two games. Ayomanor’s six targets against NC State were good for 43% of the team’s total target share that week.
Fade – QBs. Cannot risk it. Stanford could use Justin Lamson, they could use Ashton Daniels or could even go back to the freshman in Elijah Brown who still has one more game to play in and can still retain his redshirt eligibility. It’s a shame Stanford doesn’t have “a guy” right now, because this Louisville defense gives up a ton of fantasy points (26 FPPG) to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,400) Four tight ends have scored 11 or more fantasy points against Louisville this season. 50% of Roush’s 32 targets this season have come in the last three weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Emmett Mosley ($4,100) Ayomanor leads the team in targets and receptions, but Mosley has been a strong counterpart as a freshman, accounting for 20% of more of the team’s target share in five of the last six games since becoming a starter.
Best of the Rest – n/a – Ayomanor, Mosley or Roush, that’s the path if selecting a Stanford player.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -20.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: ND 35.5 – UVA 15
Weather: 54 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Virginia:
The Hoos upset previously ranked Pitt last Saturday, but NOT because of their offense as the defense carried the team to the 24-19 victory. Quarterback(s) are not in play as QB Anthony Colandrea ($6,700) has regressed, and there’s a better than zero chance we see backup Tony Muskett at some point. With that regression, WR Malachi Fields ($6,800) has gone from a top-flight fantasy option at receiver to essentially non-existent, with just 11 yards receiving on Saturday. Not the time to risk playing him against the No. 2 pass defense in the country in terms of success rate. Look for UVA to deploy a similar game plan to last week in running the football 40+ times with RB Kobe Pace ($4,000) and Xavier Brown ($3,700) who combined for over 110 yards and two scores against the Panthers. Notre Dame’s pass defense metrics are elite – the run defense is not. 86th in rush D success rate and 43rd in EPA per run play. Even Florida State managed to run the ball with relative success against the Irish last week.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($9,500) Leonard is our highest-projected player on the entire slate (kinda speaks to how bad this slate is) but is also our fifth highest-projected player for the entire weekend in college fantasy. High team total + a more competitive matchup as opposed to last week means we should see four quarters of Leonard. Virginia is pretty average across the board in most defensive categories.
Fade – WR Jayden Thomas ($3,100) In a game where essentially every Notre Dame receiver was involved at some point, that did not include Thomas who played just 19% of the snaps and was not targeted a single time. He’s out of the rotation.
Bargain Bin – RB Jadarian Price ($3,100) Notre Dame has won seven games this season by 10 or more points. And in four of those seven games, Price has hit double-digit fantasy points, just as he did last week vs. Florida State with 95 yards and a TD. Notre Dame is favored by 20 points.
Pivot Play – RB Jeremiyah Love ($6,300) Four ACC running backs have scored 23 or more fantasy points against a Virginia defense that is 118th in EPA per run play and 109th in rush D success rate. If most are on Leonard this week, or try and price save with Price, Love could pay off as a contrarian play against a bad run defense.
Best of the Rest – Pass Catchers. Virginia allows a combined 43 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and 13 fantasy points per game to tight ends, so this should be a favorable matchup for the Notre Dame pass-catchers. Just have to determine which one, because the top target-getter only accounts for 19% of the target share and two touchdowns is the most by any Irish receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: PSU -28.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: PSU 40 – Purd 11.5
Weather: 57 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Kaytron Allen ($4,900) Nick Singleton played a season-low in snaps last Saturday in the blowout victory over Washington as he went to the locker room in the third quarter and was not seen on the field the rest of the night. HC James Franklin stated to the media Monday that this is just a short-term issue, but how much will the Nittany Lions risk Singleton in what ‘should’ be another easy victory this Saturday? Regardless of if Singleton plays or not, I’d expect Allen to lead Penn State in carries this week at a very reasonable price.
Fade – RB Nick Singleton ($6,600) See above.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($3,600) I like the way Wallace’s volume has been trending the last three weeks with 19 of his 47 targets this season coming in that three-game span, including 84 yards on eight targets in a blowout situation. Those eight targets were the most Wallace has had since Week 1.
Pivot Play – QB Drew Allar ($7,000) Four QBs this season have scored 24 or more fantasy points against Purdue this season, two of which being Braedyn Locke and Luke Altmyer average to slightly above average B1G quarterbacks. Quarterbacks are also scoring 25% above their seasonal average when facing the Boilermakers this season who are 126th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – TE Tyler Warren ($7,200) What can we say here that hasn’t already been said about Warren? We will mention that Purdue has held opposing tight ends in check for the most part, as no player at the position has scored more than 10 fantasy points against the Boilermakers. WR Liam Clifford ($3,300) and Julian Fleming ($3,000) continue to be part of the starting rotation at receiver, playing over 60% of the snaps, but minimal production has come along with that.
Injury Notes – Watch for any Nick Singleton updates on Saturday.
Purdue:
Fade the QBs, obviously, after throwing for barely 100 yards last week at Ohio State. HC Ryan Walters said this week, “If I were Penn State, I’d be preparing for both quarterbacks.” RB Devin Mockobee rushed for 73 yards on 13 attempts last week AT Ohio State, so maybe he breaks off a run or two against Penn State, who is lower in the rankings in most rush defense categories than the Buckeyes. WRs Jahmal Edrine, Jaron Tibbs, and TE Max Klare continue to see the most targets among the Purdue pass-catchers but running a major risk having any of them in your lineup for a team that could complete fewer than 10 passes on Saturday.
Baylor vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: Bayl -3
O/U Total: 59
Implied Score: Bayl 31 – WVU 28
Weather: 55 degrees / 4% rain / 5 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Sawyer Robertson ($8,700) Thought there was a chance Robertson wouldn’t play this week after leaving the stadium in a boot two weeks ago, but HC Dave Aranda said his QB1 is 100% in advance of this favorable matchup with West Virginia. Not sure how much upside Robertson has this week, because WVU is going to slow the pace of this game, but the Mountaineers are terrible on the backend, ranking 122nd in pass D success rate and have allowed five QBs to score 22 or more fantasy points against them this season.
Fade – WR Ketron Jackson ($3,500) Just a lot of risk here that isn’t worth taking with Jackson as he’s dealt with injury for much of the year and played just 17% of snaps in Week 10 vs. TCU. Baylor spreads the ball around enough with plenty of depth at wideout that the Bears don’t “need” Jackson to function offensively.
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Trigg ($3,100) Fourth on the team in targets (37) and third in receptions (23), coming off a season-high eight targets vs. TCU in Week 10. Four tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points vs. West Virginia this year.
Pivot Play – RB Bryson Washington ($6,400) The redshirt freshman might’ve had the best performance he’ll ever have in his collegiate career, rushing for nearly 200 yards and four touchdowns vs. TCU. West Virginia is strong defensively against the run, ranked 4th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground, but are still allowing a decent chunk of fantasy points (29 FPPG) to opposing backfields. Corey Kiner just went for 91 yards and a score on this defense.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Baylor has four of them, they all play a lot, and the targets are evenly distributed. Not the best situation to choose from between Josh Cameron, Hal Presley, Monaray Baldwin and Ashtyn Hawkins for fantasy purposes, so it’s totally viable to roster Robertson and not stack him with any Baylor wideouts. Presley and Cameron get the nod of the group, playing over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 10, and combine for 10 of the team’s 20 receiving touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB Jahiem White ($4,700) Two games in a row now White has out-carried RB CJ Donaldson ($3,600), though both are so cheap this week that you could consider either player. The Bears’ run defense is borderline elite analytically, ranked 22nd in EPA per run play and 6th in rush D success rate. That said, teams are scoring around 13% more fantasy points per game than their seasonal averages when facing Baylor this season.
Fade – WR Preston Fox ($3,200) Fox did see his reps increase to over 60% of snaps played in Week 11 but is simply not productive with just one target. No reason he should get any more playing time than the guy below this.
Bargain Bin – WR Justin Robinson ($3,000) The efficiency this season for Robinson is unreal. 10 receptions, nine of which resulted in first downs with three touchdowns, including one this past week vs. Cincinnati. Robinson is also third in yards per route run behind only Traylon Ray and Hudson Clement, with zero drops. So why isn’t Robinson getting more playing time? If Clement plays, Robinson is probably out of the equation. Clement did not play in Week 11 but was back at practice on Monday according to Rivals.
Pivot Play – WR Traylon Ray ($3,600) Ray is the one West Virginia receiver this week without any playing time questions or potential health issues. Ray played 88% of the team’s snaps last week with 38 yards on three targets. Baylor is allowing a ton of fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, with five players scoring 25 or more points vs. the Bears.
Best of the Rest – TE Kole Taylor ($3,300) Taylor is third on the team in targets (38), first in receptions (30) and first in routes run. 58% of Taylor’s targets this season have come in the last four games, so his usage is trending up with Marchiol in as the starter.
Injury Notes – QB Garrett Greene ($7,400) Neal Brown has a dilemma on his hands this week – go back to his QB1 in Greene who is expected to participate in practice or play the QB that has led West Virginia to back-to-back wins in QB Nicco Marchiol ($7,200). With the potential that two QBs could play this week, we probably will just fade outright, unless Greene gets ruled out at some point.
Nebraska vs. USC
Point-Spread: USC -8.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: USC 29.5 – Neb 21
Weather: 60 degrees / 18% rain / 7 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB Woody Marks ($8,500) Mr. Reliable for the USC offense this season, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in all but two games this season, with back-to-back games of 30+. The Nebraska run defense is the strength of that unit, allowing just 18.3 FPPG to opposing backfields but two of the last three opponents the Cornhuskers have faced have averaged over 4.6 yards per carry. Just two running backs all season have scored more than 12 fantasy points against Nebraska this season – both of which coming in the same game vs. Indiana – so rostering Marks is not a must.
Fade – WR Duce Robinson ($4,600) Robinson’s best stretch this season came when tight end Lake McRee was injured and out of the lineup. This past outing against Washington in Week 10, Robinson played just 33% of snaps with one reception.
Bargain Bin – WR Zachariah Branch ($4,800) Branch is high on the list of potential transfers after this season, as his sophomore year has not gone to plan for the former 5-star. Maybe the Washington game offered a glimmer of hope that doesn’t happen? Or Lincoln Riley is doing everything possible to avoid that situation, as Branch was on the field for 76% of the team’s snaps, with a season high 102 receiving yards on eight targets.
Pivot Play – QB Jayden Maiava ($7,500) Normally, a matchup with two middling teams wouldn’t be high on my viewing list for Saturday, but this game has massive implications for college fantasy in 2025, getting a look at USC’s likely QB1 against Nebraska and their new offensive coordinator. Maiava will get the nod ahead of Miller Moss on Saturday and is a better fit for the Lincoln Riley offense as he’s a better athlete outside of the pocket. Nebraska is allowing just 16.2 FPPG this season to opposing QBs, but also just allowed over 270 total yards and 22 fantasy points to UCLA’s Ethan Garbers…at home.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Makai Lemon continues to be the best option among the USC receivers, with 70 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games. Ja’Kobi Lane and Kyron Hudson are on the field consistently, playing around 60% of the team’s offensive snaps – though production is sporadic to say the least. Five receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points this season vs. Nebraska, which is the position group that has had the most fantasy success against the Cornhuskers in 2024.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – RB Dante Dowdell ($4,200) Much-needed change occurred over the bye week as Nebraska made a change at offensive coordinator, with Dana Holgorsen replacing Marcus Satterfield as the team’s play-caller. That will eventually lead to more passing from the Cornhuskers, as Holgorsen has usually run an Air Raid in the past, but how much can be implemented at this stage in the season? Particularly with the health issues at QB. Dowdell feels like the safest bet, having rushed for two touchdowns last time out against UCLA. The former Oregon transfer has been good when he’s not fumbling away games.
Fade – RB Rahmir Johnson ($3,400) Johnson missed the Ohio State contest in Week 9 due to injury, but was available in Week 10 vs. UCLA, yet did not see the field. One would assume that he’ll suit up against USC coming out of the bye, but that ambiguity combined with him being third on the depth chart behind Dowdell and Emmett Johnson has me fading.
Bargain Bin – WR Jacory Barney ($3,600) Barney is going to be a high draft pick next year in college fantasy leagues with the addition of Holgorsen. 19 receptions on 26 targets in the last three games alone as the team’s starting slot receiver. I’d just be cautious rostering any Nebraska receiver if Haarberg gets the nod.
Pivot Play – TE Thomas Fidone ($3,100) Fidone’s production has steadily risen over the course of the season, with 17 of his 28 receptions coming in the last four games alone. 65% of Fidone’s targets have come in the last month.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Neyor ($4,600) or WR Jahmal Banks ($3,500) Outside receivers have dominated the Trojans this season, with five players scoring at least 20 fantasy points against USC. Banks and Neyor are first and second on the team in routes run. As is the case with Barney, the WRs will be boosted by Holgorsen’s arrival, but subsequently downgraded if Dylan Raiola cannot play.
Injury Notes – QB Dylan Raiola ($5,500) The 5-star freshman will try and practice this week but status remains up in the air as of Tuesday. QB Henrich Haarberg ($5,300) would start in Raiola’s place should he be unavailable. Haarberg is not really a fit for Dana Holgorsen’s system, but he can really run which keeps him in the pool of options this week. Haarberg had two 30-point fantasy performances last year, so he is capable.
