Arizona vs. Cincinnati
- Point-Spread: Cin -6.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: Cin 31.5 – Ariz 25
- Weather: 61 degrees / 15% rain / 8 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – QB Noah Fifita ($7,100) Admittedly ready for a slate that does NOT include Arizona as one of the most difficult teams to figure out offensively. Or maybe we have figured it out and it’s as simple as… don’t roster anyone here but the QB. Solid matchup for Fifita here as a spend-down option at quarterback, facing a defense that is 13th in the B12 in yards allowed through the air and giving up 23 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Quarterbacks are averaging over 26% more than their seasonal average when facing Cincy this season, and game script should be in Fifita’s favor as an underdog.
Fade – RB Kedrick Reescano ($4,300) No Arizona running back has carried the ball more than 10 times since Week 8, and that included a very competitive matchup last week against Kansas. This is an RBBC all the way. If you’re desperately interested in an Arizona running back, maybe give RB Quincy Craig ($4,100) a look after scoring twice last week – one through the air and one on the ground. Craig is now averaging over seven yards a carry this season and probably deserves more looks. His 45% of snaps played last week was the most of any Arizona back.
Bargain Bin – WR Tre Spivey ($3,000) Spivey at min pricing continues to be a mystery, despite scoring just five fantasy points last week vs. Kansas. His six targets were second on the team behind only Kris Hutson and played a season high 98.4% of the team’s snaps. The Arizona WR room has been a jumbled mess most of the year, but there’s now separation between the top two wideouts and the rest of the group.
Pivot Play – WR Kris Hutson ($5,300) Team leader in all receiving categories with at least four receptions now in each of the last four games. Cincinnati is allowing around 38 FPPG to opposing WR rooms, and like Fifita, the game script should be in favor of the passing components for Arizona.
Best of the Rest – WR Javin Whatley ($4,700) Whatley is a GPP play as most DFS players will either spend up for Hutson or go cheap with Spivey. Whatley should have next to nothing in terms of ownership, despite being second on the team in routes run and second in touchdowns (4). Whatley was targeted five times vs. Kansas but was not nearly on the field as much as either Spivey or Hutson was.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendan Sorsby ($8,800) Sorsby currently ranks as QB6 in college fantasy in total points scored this season, but this is one of the more difficult matchups he’ll have this season as Arizona is 5th in the nation in pass D success rate, second in the B12 in yards allowed through the air and giving up just 19 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Teams have very much gone to the ground recently against this Arizona defense, both with running backs and the QB, which should favor Sorsby here. Houston’s Conner Weigman had nearly 100 yards rushing and a TD on 14 carries vs. the Wildcats, while BYU’s Bear Bachmeier carried the rock 22 times for 100 yards in his matchup against Arizona. And most recently last week with Jalon Daniels going for 74 yards on 14 attempts. If not DFS, maybe look at Sorsby’s rushing prop overs.
Bargain Bin – Caleb Goodie ($3,400) There’s three cheap WR options for Cincy, but Goodie is the preferred of that trio with his role in the offense established as one of the boundary receivers. Noah Jennings and Jeff Caldwell have popped some weeks but continue to rotate reps at the spot opposite Goodie. The former Colorado State transfer is first on the team in routes run, second in targets (39), and on the field almost 70% of the time.
Pivot Play – RB Tawee Walker ($5,300) Opponents have leaned heavily into the run game when facing this stingy Arizona secondary, both with the QB and RB. Daniel Hishaw had 18 rushing attempts last week. Dean Connors had 20 attempts vs. Arizona. LJ Martin accounted for 26 rushing attempts in his matchup with the Wildcats. Evan Pryor is questionable as of Wednesday writing this, but if he’s out, Walker is definitely in play.
Best of the Rest – WR Cyrus Allen ($5,300) Overall, the Arizona pass defense ranks highly, but we’ve seen some strong performances from opposing Big 12 receivers against them in the last month. Amare Thomas had 69 yards and two scores. Emmanuel Henderson found the end-zone last week. BYU’s Parker Kingston went for 100+. And then Colorado’s Omarion Miller had nearly 100 yards with two scores. Three of the four spend time in the slot or play exclusively inside. Cyrus Allen lines up in the slot 93.4% of the time.
Injury Notes – RB Evan Pryor (questionable)
Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh
- Point-Spread: ND -10.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: ND 33 – Pitt 22.5
- Weather: 50 degrees / 33% rain / 5 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB CJ Carr ($7,200) Feels weird not having Jeremiyah Love up in the top spot, but the matchup dictates otherwise. The Pitt pass defense is slightly below average compared to ACC standards, ranked 10th in the conference in yards allowed per game and the fourth most passing touchdowns give up (18). Stanford just racked up over 330 passing yards against the Pitt secondary last time out. Carr is playable at this pricing and does not need to be stacked with an ND pass-catcher either.
Fade – RB Jadarian Price ($6,100) It’s been tougher sledding for Price in the last month, averaging just 4.3 yards per carry in the previous four games (7.7 YPC in first five games) with two fumbles in that stretch. Pitt is only allowing a combined 17 FPPG to opposing backfields this season, and we think it actually makes more sense to spend up for Love here than play Price in this matchup. There’s similar RBs in this range that aren’t RB2s on their own team.
Bargain Bin – TE Eli Raridon ($3,800) Tough to tout a player that did not record a reception last week, but Raridon also wasn’t needed in the 49-10 blowout of Navy. If there was ever a matchup for Raridon to break out, this would be the one, facing a Pitt defense that is allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends of any team in the country. Just in the last two games with saw both Stanford’s Sam Roush and NC State’s Justin Joly post over 100 receiving yards in their matchups vs. the Panthers.
Pivot Play – RB Jeremiyah Love ($10,000) The argument in favor of Love is related to Notre Dame needing to win to stay in the CFP conversation and Love having a big outing to remain in the Heisman Trophy discussion. On paper, it doesn’t make sense to spend up for Love this week, facing the No. 3 ranked run defense in the country and best run defense in the ACC. We expect the usage to be very high for Love on Saturday, and still projects well at 24 fantasy points, but the salary is too steep a cost.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Not required to have a Notre Dame receiver in any of your lineups, regardless of if you play CJ Carr or not as its relatively equal distribution and production between the top three wideouts.
Injury Notes – n/a
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – WR Raphael Williams ($4,300) or WR Kenny Johnson ($4,900) Teams have been able to throw on Notre Dame lately, with the last two P4 opponents – Boston College and USC – combining for over 600 passing yards against the Irish. And we know Pitt wants to throw, ranked 35th nationally in pass play rate. Don’t think this is a stackable situation where we play both Williams and Johnson, but we’ve seen recent success from WRs facing Notre Dame with Lewis Bond (8-92-0) and Ja’Kobi Lane (6-111-1).
Bargain Bin – WR Cataurus Hicks ($3,100) It’s the unpredictability that is unfortunate when it comes to Hicks, because he’s super cheap for a player that is third on the team in routes run and tied for second in touchdowns (4). There’s simply no middle when it comes to Hicks – you’re either getting 25 fantasy points or five fantasy points. Hicks’ best performances have come in some of Pitt’s most competitive matchups with 100+ yards against both Louisville and NC State.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’Kyrian Turner ($4,800) This is IF RB Desmond Reid ($5,800) does not play Saturday, but early indications are that the senior running back will be available following the bye week. Turner, a true freshman, is coming off back-to-back 20-point performances in the last two games and has hit that mark three times in the last four. Similar in stature to Reid at just 5-foot-9, 180 pounds, Turner is the future at the position and held some fantasy value even when Reid was in the lineup, rushing for two touchdowns in the win over Florida State back in Week 7. Notre Dame is only allowing 17.3 FPPG to opposing backfields this season, so it is also entirely possible to fade this situation regardless of Reid’s status.
Best of the Rest – QB Mason Heintschel ($8,500) Big spot here for a freshman quarterback. Projection is fine at 21 fantasy points – it’s just that we have two quarterbacks with better projections (Marcel Reed / Jeff Sims) at lower costs, and close enough to the top-tier QBs in salary to just spend up for a Taylen Green for example. If playing Heinstchel, a game stack with CJ Carr and a Pitt wideout makes the most sense. Notre Dame is allowing just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – RB Desmond Reid (probable)
Michigan vs. Northwestern
- Point-Spread: Mich -11.5
- O/U Total: 41.5
- Implied Score: Mich 26.5 – NW 15
- Weather: 57 degrees / 5% rain / 13 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan Marshall ($7,100) Start all your lineup builds by locking in Marshall, says this Michigan fan writer. Justice Haynes won’t be playing and just two running backs outside of Marshall saw carries against Purdue – a 3-star freshman and a walk-on. 20+ touches for Marshall on Saturday is a near lock.
Bargain Bin – TE Zack Marshall ($3,000) Want to guess who was the highest rated tight end in the country in Week 10, according to Pro Football Focus? Marshall has arguably been the best tight end on Michigan’s roster in the second half of the season, with 130 of his 159 receiving yards coming in the last three games. Doubtful that we see Hogan Hansen return this week, so Marshall will see the field plenty on Saturday.
Pivot Play – WR Andrew Marsh ($4,500) or WR Donaven McCulley ($5,100) Tough to suggest playing either Marsh or McCulley when Michigan hasn’t thrown a passing touchdown in the last two games with just 231 receiving yards total in that stretch. USC’s Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon had more than that last week alone vs. Northwestern. Both are playable, but limit one per lineup. McCulley played a season-low 47% of snaps against Purdue in Week 10, as Michigan was in a ton of heavy offensive sets with two and even three tight ends on the field, throughout the game.
Best of the Rest – QB Bryce Underwood ($6,800) Underwood is not playable at this point in any college fantasy format, now averaging just 13.1 fantasy points per game against P4 opponents. For the season, Northwestern is giving up just 15.7 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – RB Justice Haynes (doubtful), TE Hogan Hansen (doubtful)
Northwestern:
Top Play(s) – RB Caleb Komolafe ($5,400) Komolafe did benefit from Northwestern having exactly zero backups available vs. USC on Friday, so we figured his usage would be high, but he continued to perform with 118 yards and a TD on 17 attempts. High-level stats show this as a bad matchup, but I expect Northwestern to be able to run on the Wolverines as this is not the dominant front they’ve been in recent years. Northwestern is 29th in rush success rate offensively, while the Wolverines are 132nd in explosive runs allowed on the ground.
Fade – QB Preston Stone ($6,000) Stone was potentially playable on last Friday’s three-game slate. Never on a main slate. Remove him from the query.
Bargain Bin – TE Hunter Welcing ($3,200) You realistically cannot play Welcing on a main slate. He’s mentioned here because Michigan does not defend the tight end position well, allowing 12.7 fantasy points per game. Welcing is tied for second on the team in touchdowns (2) and third in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Griffin Wilde ($4,700) Interesting mini storyline to watch in this matchup is where Northwestern lines up Wilde. We’ve hit on this point before in our DFS writeups that Michigan linebackers are poor in coverage, so the tight ends and slots can eat in the middle of the field. Wilde primarily plays outside but has spent 45% of the time in the slot this season. 5 of the team’s 11 receiving touchdowns have gone to the South Dakota State transfer.
Best of the Rest – WR Hayden Eligon II ($3,100) Second on the team in targets (28), yards (224) and routes run, with at least two receptions in each of the last five games.
Injury Notes – RB Joe Himon (questionable)
South Carolina vs. Texas A&M
- Point-Spread: A&M -19
- O/U Total: 48
- Implied Score: A&M 33.5 – SC 14.5
- Weather: 76 degrees / 15% rain / 16 mph winds
South Carolina:
There’s the mildest bit of intrigue here now that South Carolina axed Mike Shula as offensive coordinator, and elevated former Detroit Lion great Mike Furrey to interim OC. But this is still the worst scoring offense in the SEC (19.4 PPG), and let’s be honest, the offense has never been a strong suit during the Shane Beamer tenure. As has been the case this year, QB LaNorris Sellers ($6,200) is playable because of his fantasy upside and cheap salary, but that’s the extent of our interest on the SC side. A&M is only giving up around 15 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and rank 14th nationally in pass D success rate. The starting receivers are also dirt cheap, so you could feasibly play one of WR Brian Rowe Jr. ($3,000), WR Nyck Harbor ($3,500) or WR Vandrevius Jacobs ($3,600). But just like the coupons you use at the local grocery store, limit one per customer (lineup), because fewer than 150 passing yards is always a possibility with this offense.
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – QB Marcel Reed ($8,400) Strong QB options up and down the board on the main slate, so don’t have to pay up necessarily for Reed here. But he’s one of the highest floor options available with five rushing touchdowns over his last five games. The concern is that A&M may not have to do much offensively to beat a downtrodden South Carolina team, just as we saw a few weeks ago with Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss throwing for just 159 yards with 24 fantasy points scored. High floor, low upside, as South Carolina is only allowing 14 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Fade – RB Amari Daniels ($4,000) Daniels is a clear 4th on the A&M RB pecking order, playing just two snaps in a blowout scenario last week vs. Missouri, and didn’t receive a single rushing attempt.
Bargain Bin – RB Jamarion Morrow ($4,200) or RB EJ Smith ($4,000) Rostering an A&M running back can make you pull your hair out with the usage, but that means that the backups can be playable, especially if this is a double-digit victory for the Aggies like Vegas expects. Morrow received 1st quarter carries last week against Missouri, while Smith had one of the team’s three rushing TDs. Both Morrow and Smith had three red zone carries each, which sent some Rueben Owens owners over a cliff last week in college fantasy. Usage is also up recently for WR3 Ashton Bethel-Roman ($3,200) with seven of his 12 catches this season coming in the last three games with two TDs in that stretch. He’s second on the team in routes run still.
Pivot Play – RB Rueben Owens ($5,400) It’s been just one game – the LSU blowout – that Owens was not productive from a fantasy standpoint, as he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games since becoming the RB1 following the Le’Veon Moss injury. South Carolina is 14th among 17 teams in in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground, including 167 yards and a tuddy to Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy two weeks ago. The concern is giving red zone attempts away to as many as three players (Morrow / Smith / Reed) as we alluded to above.
Best of the Rest – WR KC Concepcion ($6,200) or WR Mario Craver ($5,100) Same situation as last week where we have the higher priced Concepcion, but the prop market has Craver with the higher projection. Having one in a lineup still makes total sense given that they combined for over 61% of the team’s receiving production with 12 of the 20 receiving TDs. Slot receivers have found the most success of late against the SC defense, which would potentially favor Craver in this scenario. Ryan Williams, Kyle Parker and Isaiah Sategna all had 70+ receiving yards in their matchup with the Gamecocks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas vs. LSU
- Point-Spread: LSU -5.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: LSU 30.5 – Ark 25
- Weather: 74 degrees / 4% rain / 9 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Mike Washington ($6,000) We can take out the Alabama game for the LSU defense, because the Tide are one of the worst rushing teams in the SEC. In the four games prior to that, the LSU defense allowed 10 rushing touchdowns in a four-game stretch in conference play, allowing both Vanderbilt and A&M to roll up over 200 yards on the ground. Washington has a lot to play for, trying to get on NFL Draft radars, and is doing a good job of such, rushing for 100+ in three of the last four weeks.
Bargain Bin – WR Raylen Sharpe ($3,900) Sharpe took over the full-time slot receiver role with the injury to Jalen Brown and seen an uptick in production over the last five weeks, with 21 of his 30 receptions this season coming in that timeframe. WR CJ Brown ($3,600) is an option as well to a lesser extent, but more so because he’s on the field a lot, rather than actual production. Arkansas does not rotate at all at WR.
Pivot Play – QB Taylen Green ($9,000) Projection is a bit lower than we’re used to for Green this week, coming off a pair of underwhelming performances against Auburn and Mississippi State, and did leave the matchup with MSU due to injury. Green is healthy by all accounts coming out of the bye week. LSU is only giving up 17.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season but did not fare well against the last dual threat QB they faced, giving up 34.7 fantasy points to Marcel Reed in that blowout loss to A&M. Green is playable, but not a necessity to pay up for him in this matchup.
Best of the Rest – WR O’Mega Blake ($6,300) Blake accounts for 29% of the team’s target share and has surpassed 60 receiving yards in all but one game this season. Any of the Big 3 for Arkansas are playable with the centralized production that comes from the Razorback offense. LSU does a good job on the back end limiting fantasy points to receivers – there is not a single WR to score more than 20 fantasy points against the Tigers all season long. Blake is playable but not a priority.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU:
Top Play(s) – RB Harlem Berry ($5,100) Berry has fully taken over the RB1 role from Caden Durham and has looked the part as a 4-star recruit in his limited reps with 50 or more yards rushing in each of the last three games. The Arkansas run defense needs no introduction at this point – dead last in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground and giving up over 33 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Fade – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($7,000) The Nuss Buss has made its last stop. Nussmeier wouldn’t be an option this week even if we believed that he would start the entire game vs. Arkansas, having failed to score more than 20 fantasy points against any FBS opponent this season. The expectation is that we’re going to see both Nuss and backup Michael Van Buren again on Saturday, just as we saw when MVB entered the game vs. Alabama in the third quarter.
Pivot Play – TE Trey’Dez Green ($5,500) Will probably see lower ownership for Green after his goose egg performance against Alabama last week. We should not discount what the star tight end did the three weeks prior scoring a touchdown in three straight games versus SEC competition.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Play at your own risk. LSU’s leading receiver has no more than 20% of the team’s target share, and an LSU wideout has not scored more than 20 fantasy points all year long. Nic Anderson is most certainly out after another injury setback, and we’ll see on Aaron Anderson who had his arm wrapped postgame after suffering another injury. If both Anderson’s are out, our interest in a Kyle Parker, Barion Brown or Zavion Thomas increases slightly.
Injury Notes – WR Nic Anderson (out), WR Aaron Anderson (probable)
West Virginia vs. Arizona State
- Point-Spread: ASU -11
- O/U Total: 48
- Implied Score: ASU 30 – WVU 18.5
- Weather: 57 degrees / 40% rain / 6 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB Diore Hubbard ($5,600) Hubbard gave folks a scare with a first quarter injury, but finished the game with 21.8 fantasy points, showing his ability as a runner and receiver out of the backfield with over 150 total yards. Arizona State is second in the B12 in yards allowed on the ground but have given up 15 rushing TDs this season. It’ll be a matter of if Hubbard gets those rushing TDs, or West Virginia continues to use a linebacker as the red-zone option as they did Saturday against Colorado. Hubbard is not the smash play that he was a week ago.
Bargain Bin – WR Jeff Weimer ($3,100) For the second straight week, Weimer barely left the field on offense, playing over 97% of the team’s snaps. It only resulted in a pair of catches on four targets, but we did see Weimer involved in the run game as well with three rushing attempts. Pretty good usage for a $3.1k receiver.
Pivot Play – QB Scotty Fox Jr. ($6,500) If Fox only mustered 15 fantasy points in the win over Colorado, it’s difficult to envision him outperforming that against a better overall defense in Arizona State. There are a few promising signs, though, that have us still interested in Fox for this week. (1) 17 rushing attempts for a quarterback will always open our eyes. (2) While he did not having a rushing touchdown, Fox did lead all Mountaineer players in red zone carries. (3) Arizona State is allowing around 24 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Ownership will undoubtedly be lower than last week.
Best of the Rest – RB Cyncir Bowers ($4,200) We did see some folks play Bowers last week, with the thought that the WVU backfield was still unsettled. Hubbard is RB1 but should be noted that Bowers had a 4-3 advantage over his counterpart in red zone carries vs. Colorado. WR Cam Vaughn ($5,400) led all Mountaineers with seven targets, converting only two into receptions. Vaughn has nearly double the number of targets as the next closest WVU receiver with half of the team’s receiving touchdowns (4).
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jeff Sims ($7,400) Sims proved a lot of doubters wrong two weeks ago, scoring 48 fantasy points in the win over Iowa State. His passing numbers against the Cyclones looked much the same as what we’re accustomed to – 54% completion rate, 177 yards, one touchdown and a pick. But Arizona State went full YOLO with Sims on the ground with 30 attempts for 223 yards and two scores. It’s well documented that Iowa State cannot defend mobile QBs, but this should be another appealing matchup against a West Virginia defense that is 14th in the conference in scoring and allowing over 24 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Fade – RB Raleek Brown ($7,600) Brown was overshadowed by Sims, understandably, against Iowa State but saw decent usage with 16 rushing attempts, along with two receptions on five targets. Most notably, no other Arizona State player carried the football outside of Brown and Sims. West Virginia has been strong against the run, ranking 6th in the Big 12 in yards allowed on the ground, 25th nationally in rush D success rate and 22nd in stuff rate. Against Iowa State, all three red zone rushing attempts went to Sims.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik McClain ($4,400) or WR Jalen Moss ($3,100) Shortened rotation at WR for the Sun Devils against Iowa State with a grand total of three receivers logging a snap, and just two wideouts in McClain and Moss that were targeted. If Tyson is in, we’d advise fading both.
Pivot Play – TE Chamon Metayer ($5,200) 4 or more receptions in six of the last seven games for Metayer, with the lone occurrence being the Utah disaster that was bad for all involved. Arizona State has thrown 12 touchdown passes this season, eight to Jordyn Tyson and the remaining four to ASU tight ends. West Virginia is giving up just over 10 FPPG to the position this season.
Injury Notes – QB Sam Leavitt (out), WR Jordyn Tyson (out)
Oklahoma vs. Alabama
- Point-Spread: Ala -6.5
- O/U Total: 46.5
- Implied Score: Ala 26.5 – OU 20
- Weather: 74 degrees / 1% rain / 9 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – RB Xavier Robinson ($4,400) A team is far more likely to succeed running the football against Alabama than they are throwing it. That sets up well for Robinson on Saturday, as he was already becoming the focal point of the OU offense with Mateer’s struggles since the injury. I thought we might still see a split between Xavier Robinson and Tory Blaylock, but that wasn’t the case at all with Robinson getting all but one rushing attempt that went to OU running backs on two weeks ago vs. Tennessee, rushing for 106 yards and a score. We have a clear RB1 now for the Sooners.
Fade – QB John Mateer ($8,300) If there’s a reason to justify playing Mateer on this main slate, I’d love to hear it. Mateer has failed to score more than 20 fantasy points in any game since the hand injury and is facing the No. 2 pass defense in the SEC. Alabama is giving up just 13.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, scoring almost 29% lower than their seasonal average when facing the Tide.
Bargain Bin – WR Deion Burks ($4,200) It’s not that Burks is having a bad season, just not the type of year that some (me) envisioned. And as we said, that’s due to the fact that Burks isn’t playing in the slot where he was thought to be in the preseason. Regardless, Burks is second on the team in receptions (43), targets (60) and first on the team in routes run, coming off a performance against Tennessee where he was targeted nine times. Burks did not leave the field at all against the Vols, playing all 66 offensive snaps.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Sategna ($6,600) Team leader in targets (73), receptions (49), yards and touchdowns this season for the Sooners in the enviable slot position in this system. After a quiet start, Sategna has had at least 60 receiving yards in each of the last seven games. The issue with playing Sategna or Burks, or any Sooner wideout is that one receiver all season has had more than 60 receiving yards in a game when facing Alabama this season. We’re going to see a run-heavy script from the Sooners on Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Ty Simpson ($8,700) We would normally not consider any QBs facing this Oklahoma defense that is giving up just 11.3 FPPG to the position this season. But then we saw Joey Aguilar throw for nearly 400 yards and three touchdowns on this defense, so we must reconsider our stance. With the run game struggles, Bama is now up to 26th in pass play rate and the top four receivers are all healthy, which can give even the best of defenses troubles.
Fade – RB Jam Miller ($5,200) Not sure that Alabama is going to fix their rushing woes against the No. 2 run defense in the SEC. The Tide are now 96th in line yards, 112th in rush success rate and have not averaged more than four yards per carry as a team since Week 2 against lowly Louisiana-Monroe. As was the case last week, it would be more fiscally responsible to play RB Daniel Hill ($4,300), who wound up with the team’s lone rushing TD vs. LSU.
Bargain Bin – WR Lotzeir Brooks ($4,000) We’re seeing more involvement from the 5-star freshman over the last three weeks with 10 receptions on 19 targets in that stretch. Beyond Germie Bernard, Alabama has become somewhat of a WR-by-committee, so spending down for Brooks is a possibility.
Best of the Rest – WRs. With everyone available, we could take the same approach as last week vs. LSU and not have any Alabama receivers in a lineup. WR Germie Bernard ($5,900) leads the way in receptions (41), targets (62) and touchdowns (6), but only holds 21% of the target share. The leading receiver in each of the last four games for teams facing this Oklahoma defense have been slot receivers, which would favor Brooks or WR Ryan Williams ($6,800), though Williams kicked outside last week against LSU with the increased playing time for Brooks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Florida vs. Texas Tech
- Point-Spread: TT -23.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: TT 35.5 – UCF 12
- Weather: Dome
Central Florida:
Lowest implied team total on the slate, facing the No. 3 scoring defense in the nation. General rule of thumb is to not play any running backs or quarterbacks facing Texas Tech this season. That holds true here with a split backfield between Myles Montgomery and Jaden Nixon. Tayven Jackson “should” start, but he gave way to Virginia Tech transfer Davi Belfort last week against Houston, who sparked the run game with 43 yards on four attempts. Best you could hope for here is a garbage time touchdown from one of the pass-catchers as we saw from BYU last week with the game already in hands. TE Dylan Wade ($3,400) is easily the top option for UCF if this week, coming off a 6-80-0 performance on nine targets vs. Houston last week. For as dominant as the Tech defense has been this season, they’re more than content allowing the underneath junk in the middle of the field, specifically to tight ends, in trying to limit big plays. Tight ends are averaging nearly 13 FPPG against the Red Raiders this season.
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB J’Koby Williams ($5,000) or RB Cameron Dickey ($8,100) It was the lock of the century last week in CFB DFS. Everyone was on J’Koby Williams, so you knew…. you just knew that Dickey would have a big week. And he did, rushing for 121 yards and a touchdown on 23 attempts. We’ll attempt to have at least one Tech running back in most of our builds this week, facing a UCF run defense that is 107th in success rate and 79th in explosive plays allowed.
Fade – QB Behren Morton ($8,100) Projection doesn’t dictate playing Morton this week, who hasn’t scored more than 21 fantasy points in a game since early September. UCF has been strong on the backend this season, allowing just 16.5 FPPG to quarterbacks. Only reason to play Morton is a five-touchdown implied team total and leverage against the GPP field because he’ll have very low ownership.
Pivot Play – TE Terrance Carter ($5,500) Tight end play is particularly strong in the Big 12 this season – not usually the case in the past – so you’re seeing a lot of the defenses in the conference allowing plenty of fantasy points to the position. That’s the case with UCF, giving up 12.7 FPPG to tight ends this season, and have particularly struggled in the last month. Joe Royer had 83 yards on two catches against the Knights. Baylor’s Michael Trigg had 82 yards and a score, and just last week Tanner Koziol caught eight passes for 66 yards.
Best of the Rest – WRs. There’s little appeal to the Tech receivers when all three have between 39 and 43 receptions this season as they distribute the production evenly amongst Coy Eakin, Caleb Douglas and Reggie Virgil. Max one per lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia vs. Duke
- Point-Spread: Duke -5.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: Duke 31.5 – UVA 26
- Weather: 65 degrees / 5% rain / 0 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB J’Mari Taylor ($7,700) The usage has skyrocketed in the last month or so for Taylor with the injuries to Morris and some of the struggles in the passing game. 20+ rushing attempts in each of the last three games, combined with 15 receptions on 17 targets in that stretch as well. You’d imagine Taylor will have that many touches, if not more, on Saturday if Chandler Morris is unable to go. Duke is much better against the run than the pass, but not a dominant group in any facet.
Fade – RB Harrison Waylee ($4,500) Tight spread and UVA being underdogs means we have zero interest in a backup running back. Duke is giving up just 22 FPPG to opposing backfields and would imagine if that’s how many fantasy points UVA scored on Saturday, that all 22 of those points would go to J’Mari Taylor.
Pivot Play – WRs. Shame that Chandler Morris might miss the contest because this is a dream matchup for UVA receivers, facing a Duke defense that gives up the most fantasy points per game (45.5) to opponents on the entire slate. And they’re all cheap. Boundary and slot receivers have both found success against the Duke secondary this season, so no preference in that aspect. WR Trell Harris ($4,200) has led the team in targets in each of the last three games. WR Jahmal Edrine ($4,600) will be the lowest owned of the three because of salary.
Best of the Rest – QB Situation. Morris left the game in the second quarter vs. Wake Forest with an upper body injury and did not return. HC Tony Elliott said on Tuesday that Morris was out at practice and “looked good” but did not participate. Daniel Kaelin, a Nebraska transfer, would get the start in Morris’ place should he sit after throwing for 145 yards in the loss last week. Kaelin did have 61 yards on four carries against WF, but that was a product of a missed assignment on defense, rather than Kaelin being a legitimate dual threat – he is not. If we do get word Morris will start, it’s not the worst of matchups, as Duke allows around 25 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – QB Chandler Morris (questionable)
Duke:
Top Play(s) – WR Cooper Barkate ($7,100) Despite the high team total, I’m not sure we want as much Duke exposure this week as we did last Saturday against UConn. Virginia is a middle of the road ACC defense, ranked 6th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and 8th in pass defense, but there’s also no distinct weakness either. Boundary receivers have found the most success against this UVA secondary. Cal’s Trond Grizzell caught eight passes for 80 yards. UNC’s Jordan Shipp had 67 yards on seven receptions. Washington State’s Josh Meredith went for 100+ and a touchdown in his matchup with Virginia. Interesting thing with Meredith, he plays primarily in the slot, but Wazzu kicked him outside 63% of the time against UVA. Barkate will probably see less ownership after his dud last week.
Fade – QB Darian Mensah ($8,000) Not an outright fade for Mensah in this spot but would rather have exposure to one of the Duke receiving options without stacking the QB. Virginia is allowing just 16.4 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. The last time a QB scored more than 20 fantasy points on UVA was October 4th.
Bargain Bin – WR Sahmir Hagans ($3,400) or WR Andrel Anthony ($3,700) Everything we said above on Barkate applies to Hagans and Anthony here. Anthony is trending up after a lull in the middle of the year, with four receptions in three of the last four games, and touchdowns in the last two.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Sheppard ($8,000) Sheppard has scored 20+ fantasy points four times this season against Syracuse, UConn, Tulane and Cal. Those teams rank 97th, 108th, 74th and 87th in yards allowed per game on the ground. Virginia is 29th, limiting its last five opponents to under four yards per carry. Don’t think this is a Sheppard week, especially with what we saw a week ago with both Anderson Castle and now Jaquez Moore getting carries.
Best of the Rest – WR Que’Sean Brown ($4,900) Boundary receivers are preferred against the UVA secondary, but Brown continues to be modestly priced and a consistent performer with double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games. The most exposure we will have on the Duke side is with the receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa vs. USC
- Point-Spread: USC -6.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: USC 28 – Iowa 21.5
- Weather: 64 degrees / 67% rain / 6 mph winds
Iowa:
As always, RB Kamari Moulton ($6,600) or nothing for the Iowa side in CFB DFS. And in the question of whether Iowa can run on USC on Saturday, the answer on paper seems to be a resounding yes. The Hawkeyes are 11th in line yards and 18th in rushing success rate, facing a USC defense that is trending downwards the last few games looking like the early years under Lincoln Riley, allowing over five yards per carry to Notre Dame, Nebraska and Northwestern. The Trojans are 131st in rush D success rate, 129th in explosive run plays allowed and 84th in defensive stuff rate. On paper, this is a strong matchup for Moulton.
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB King Miller ($8,600) Surplus of RB and WR options on the slate means King Miller is not a must-play by any means, but he’s the best available on USC pertaining to the matchup. Iowa is 4th in the B1G in yards allowed per game on the ground, but just gave up 261 yards at a 7.25 YPC clip to Oregon this past week. USC boasts one of the most efficient offensive attacks in the country, ranked 2nd in overall success rate, 6th in line yards and 9th in points per opportunity. Advanced stats don’t paint as pretty a picture on the Iowa run defense – 68th in success rate and 124th in explosive run plays allowed. Miller has three 100-yard rushing performances in the last four games and continues to get the bulk of the carries since filling in for Waymond Jordan.
Fade – QB Jayden Maiava ($8,600) Similar to Darian Mensah above, we have a high (ish) implied team total and a decent projection, but the matchup isn’t the best. Some of this is a product of the schedule playing in the B1G, but the Hawkeyes are allowing just 8.9 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. QBs facing Iowa are scoring about 36% less than their seasonal average. Maiava is even more of a fade with heavy rain in the forecast.
Best of the Rest – WR Makai Lemon ($7,200) or WR Ja’Kobi Lane ($6,100) USC is nice to write about these days because we have four options, and four options only with such a condensed production share. Iowa has not allowed a receiver to have more than 60 receiving yards in a game since late September, but that’s also what happens when your defense faces the likes of Ethan Grunkemeyer, Drake Lindsay, Dante Moore (without Dakorien Moore and Kenyon Sadiq) and a Wisconsin team that just had the punter lead them in passing yards this past week. Bigger-bodied boundary receivers have given this Iowa secondary the most fits this season, with Elijah Sarratt, Ian Strong and KJ Duff all having 90 or more receiving yards in their matchups with the Hawkeyes. Slight lean towards Lane over Lemon for that reason, but both are playable.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State vs. Miami
- Point-Spread: Mia -14.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: Mia 35 – NC St 20.5
- Weather: 79 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
North Carolina St:
Fade – RBs. Easy to make jokes about Miami failing to meet expectations AGAIN, their turnover prone / overpaid quarterback, and their questionable decision-making head coach. But the run defense is elite, allowing 88 YPG on the ground, 12th in stuff rate and 11th in rush D success rate. Seems like Hollywood Smothers is trending towards playing, but there’s a chance of a split with the way Jayden Scott performed two weeks ago in his absence. Fade.
Pivot Play – QB CJ Bailey ($7,300) Bailey is coming off his best performance of his career arguably, throwing for 340 yards and three combined touchdowns with zero turnovers in the upset win over Georgia Tech. Miami is not as good defending the pass as they are the run, but still near the top of the ACC, ranked 3rd in yards allowed through the air and giving up just 14.5 FPPG to quarterbacks. Not a priority play given the matchup, but it is an option with this price tag, given the lack of capable QB options. If playing Bailey, there is no need to stack with an NC State receiver either.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Think we all know the drill here by now. NC State’s top four receivers are separated by just four targets. TE Justin Joly ($5,000) is the team leader in all receiving categories still, despite missing the contest against Georgia Tech. Taller boundary receivers have given Miami’s secondary the most troubles this season – see Chris Bell, Duce Robinson and Jordan Hudson. If we follow that trend, that would tend to favor WR Noah Rogers ($3,300) or WR Terell Anderson ($3,400). Rogers had his best performance of the year vs. Georgia Tech with 8-96-0 on a season-high 10 targets.
Injury Notes – RB Hollywood Smothers (questionable), TE Justin Joly (questionable)
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Toney ($6,900) Slot receivers have cooked this NC State secondary of late – who hasn’t though – with Georgia Tech’s Jordan Allen, Notre Dame’s Will Pauling and Pitt’s Cataurus Hicks all going over 100 receiving yards in their respective matchups with NC State. We might see a dip in ownership for Toney this week too after his down week against Syracuse, but the star freshman was not needed in the blowout.
Fade – RBs. Love these situations in CFB DFS where the collective group debates Player A (Jordan Lyle) vs. Player B (CharMar Brown), when it was actually Player C (Girard Pringle Jr.) that we should have played. NC State is 10th in yards allowed on the ground in the ACC and have given up 16 rushing scores, but the advanced metrics tell a different story. The Wolfpack are 15th in stuff rate, 13th in rush D success rate and 7th in limiting explosive run plays. Don’t know that it’ll happen, but Miami should be getting Pringle more run with Mark Fletcher out of the lineup – he’s scored in all four games played.
Bargain Bin – Secondary pass-catchers. Seems like CJ Daniels will be back on Saturday according to comments from HC Mario Cristobal, but this is a matchup where we can consider some of the other options with how poor of a pass defense Miami is playing. WR Keelan Marion ($3,300) has been a starter all year and don’t think that’ll change with Daniels back. He’s had nearly 200 yards over the last two games. Tight ends have simply not been a factor in the passing game this season. But NC State gives up the second most fantasy points per game to tight ends on the slate, behind only Pittsburgh. TE Alex Bauman ($3,000) or TE Elija Lofton ($3,200) are desperation plays if in need of a min salary option to fill a lineup. WR Joshisa Trader ($3,100) was targeted six times in each of the last two games and would be in play if we get surprising news that Daniels is out.
Pivot Play – QB Carson Beck ($7,700) Rarely do I ever tout Carson Beck as an option, but if there was a week to do it, this is it. NC State has now allowed 1,173 combined passing yards in the last three games, with both Georgia Tech and Pitt throwing for over 400 yards. For a slate with very few QB options, we must consider Beck here, as painful as that may seem. If not Beck, we need exposure to the Miami passing game regardless.
Injury Notes – RB Mark Fletcher (doubtful), WR CJ Daniels (questionable)
Penn State vs. Michigan State
- Point-Spread: PSU -7.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: PSU 29 – MSU 21.5
- Weather: 53 degrees / 12% rain / 10 mph winds
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – WR Nick Marsh ($6,000) or WR Omari Kelly ($3,300) Both receivers get a stock boost with the quarterback change. Marsh continues to lead the team in all receiving categories, averaging 5.0 catches on 7.9 targets per game with a team-high five receiving touchdowns. Kelly is underpriced at $3.3k for a player that leads the team in routes run and rarely comes off the field.
Fade – RB Makhi Frazier ($4,700) Frazier did not play against Minnesota in Week 10, but the run game instantly was better without him in the lineup with 156 team yards on the ground – the most since Week 3 vs. Youngstown State. RB Elijah Tau-Tolliver’s ($4,100) playing time has steadily increased over the last three games and would assume that continues after rushing for 127 yards against the Gophers on just 11 attempts.
Bargain Bin – RB Rodney Bullard Jr. ($4,100) That time of year when teams that aren’t playing for anything get some of the younger players more involvement. Bullard started over Chrishon McCray vs. Minnesota and caught four passes on five targets for 100+ yards and a score. McCray may not be getting his job back.
Pivot Play – QB Alessio Milivojevic ($6,100) There is no way that Jonathan Smith is dumb enough to go back to Aidan Chiles, right? Comments from Smith on Monday said that he isn’t revealing which QB will start on Saturday, but that has to be coach speak after Milivojevic threw for 311 yards and a touchdown in Week 10. The Penn State defense looked motivated against Indiana, but will the Nittany Lions get up for a road game against a bad opponent? Penn State is allowing 21.2 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, and QBs are scoring 21% more than their seasonal average when facing the Nittany Lions. Milivojevic is an option, assuming no funny business with this coaching staff.
Injury Notes – RB Makhi Frazier (questionable), WR Chrishon McCray (questionable)
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Kaytron Allen ($7,300) and / or RB Nick Singleton ($4,800) Would probably side against stacking the Penn State backfield, but we do want exposure to one of the backs here. MSU is 12th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground, have given up the second most rushing touchdowns in the B1G and are giving up just over 32 FPPG to opposing backfields this season. Singleton had the big game last week, but Allen continues to garner the majority of the rushing attempts each week.
Fade – QB Ethan Grunkemeyer ($8,200) No explanation needed here. Grunkemeyer should be $5.2k, not $8.2k.
Bargain Bin – TE Khalil Dinkins ($3,100) Last two games for Dinkins – six catches for 52 yards on eight targets. Last two games for Luke Reynolds – one catch, one target. Nothing prolific by any means, but Dinkins has been the better player of late over Reynolds who was projected to be a top 12 fantasy tight end coming into the year. Reynolds saw the third most offensive snaps last week vs. Indiana among Penn State tight ends. Portal? WR Trebor Pena ($4,000) deserves a small bit of consideration after having the best performance in weeks from a PSU wideout, catching six passes on seven targets for 99 yards.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Jordan Marshall, Michigan
- QB Jeff Sims, Arizona State
- A Penn State RB
- WR Malachi Toney, Miami
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Jordan Marshall, Michigan
- WR Malachi Toney, Miami
- QB Trinidad Chambliss, Mississippi
- RB Kamari Moulton, Iowa
