HAPPY THANKSGIVING
Kansas State @ Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -3
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 55 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Kansas State:
Doesn’t sound like folks are too happy with the offensive play-calling for Kansas State lately, particularly after a disappointing 20-10 loss to Baylor where the team amassed just 263 yards of total offense. Ranking Deuce Vaughn outside the top 20 running backs in our preseason projections looks like buffoonery at this point as the sophomore ranks eighth nationally in all-purpose yards (1,579) and first in the Big 12. Now averaging 29.7 FPPG this season and has topped 30 fantasy points in four of the last five games. While Vaughn remains expensive at $9,100, I like the idea of getting him in our lineups as we’ve seen what running backs – particularly ones that are good in the passing game – have done to the Longhorns of late…see Leddie Brown and Devin Neal. Vaughn had 100+ yards, two touchdowns and four receptions last year against Texas. We’re out everywhere else on the Kansas State offense as we are unsure of who the QB will be after Skylar Thompson was carted off vs. Baylor last week. Head coach Chris Klieman said there is an outside chance Thompson could play. Will Howard would get the nod in Thompson’s place should he not be able to go, so the offense won’t change much regardless of who is at QB. His starting experience should keep Vaughn in play here. Phillip Brooks led the Wildcats with four receptions on nine targets last week, and would be the only pass-catcher of interest.
Texas:
Not that Kansas State is anything special at the moment, but surprised to see Texas favored here as a broken and shattered football team. We don’t know as of Wednesday who will be the starting QB as both Casey Thompson and Hudson Card suffered injuries vs. West Virginia – though it sounds like Thompson will be back so would assume he gets the nod. His motivation will be to showcase himself to other schools around the country this weekend as Steve Sarkisian stated he’s opening back up the QB competition this offseason – hello Quinn Ewers. Kansas State is only allowing 17 FPPG to opposing QBs this season but are just 88th in Pass Play Success Rate. 41st in Pass Play Explosiveness which I don’t like to hear as someone who was initially interested in Xavier Worthy. WR1s are only averaging 15 FPPG against the Wildcats with just two receivers topping 20 fantasy points against this secondary in 2021. Worthy is talented enough to beat any secondary, though, and have to figure Sark will want to get his FR receiver over 1,000 yards this season as a talking point to future recruits. Worthy accounted for 12 of the 28 targets that went to Texas pass-catchers last week against West Virginia. Jordan Whittington and Marcus Washington had all of four targets combined between them. WR2s are averaging just 9.8 FPPG vs. Kansas State this season. Roschon Johnson and Keilan Robinson are both priced up this week to a territory that I’d rather just avoid given the 55-45 split in volume. Kansas State is allowing 18.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but that’s heavily swayed by Breece Hall’s 40-point performance. The Wildcats are 23rd nationally in rush yards allowed per game and 61st in Rush Play Success Rate. Texas should be able to run the ball, but don’t see a ton of upside here. 35th in Rush Play Explosiveness so Kansas State is excellent at limiting the big play.
Ohio @ Bowling Green
Point-Spread: Ohio -6
O/U Total: 48.5
Weather: 34 degrees / 6% rain / 16 mph winds
Ohio:
I thought this game total would be a bit higher given how we’ve seen MACtion games play out this season. I’ll be underweight with QB Kurtis Rourke as the game script does not favor him as a near-touchdown favorite, and Bowling Green’s strengths are on the backend as the Falcons rank 19th in the country in yards allowed per game and 17th in Pass Play Success Rate. We’ve seen quarterbacks succeed against this defense, though, with De’Quan Finn posting 40+ fantasy points. In fact, I believe every MAC QB outside of Rocky Lombardi has topped 20+ fantasy points against Bowling Green this season, so I’m talking myself into Rourke as an option as I’m writing this. De’Montre Tuggle is the only running back in the Ohio backfield that is playable in this kind of slate as O’Shaan Allison remains injured. BG is 108th in Rush Play Success Rate and giving up 21.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. 20+ carries isn’t happening as the last month has shown us, but 20 touches is not out of the question for Tuggle with his activity in the passing game. Similar to Rourke, he’s an option at his pricing. Rourke really spread the wealth against Toledo last week with seven different players targeted at last three times. Only pass-catcher of interest in a 12-game slate is WR1 Isiah Cox who has been targeted seven times in each of the last four games.
Bowling Green:
We’re getting around three touchdowns from Bowling Green here so we can’t totally ignore them, but do we honestly think we’re going to roster someone here on a 12-game slate? The Falcons are averaging just 12 PPG over the last two weeks, the offensive line is dreadful and every play-call is either a run, gimmick play or a passing play within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Matt McDonald has scored exactly 4.2 fantasy points combined in the last two games so he’s out. Tyrone Broden, Austin Osborne and tight end Christian Sims combined for 22 of the 28 targets last week for BG pass-catchers, but they should realistically be priced at $3,500 or lower. And they’re not, so no interest there. Game week depth chart still has Terion Stewart listed, but I see the Q tag for him on DraftKings. Don’t have an update there, but FR Nick Mosley stepped in last week, rushing for 94 yards on 15 carries, and is averaging over five yards a carry in the last month. Last game of the season for a struggling team is the perfect opportunity to give younger players a look, and Mosley is cheap at $3,900. Ohio is allowing 24.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and 10th in the MAC in run defense. I think Mosley is a potential punt option here.
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan
Point-Spread: CMU -8.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Weather: 31 degrees / 3% rain / 13 mph winds
Eastern Michigan:
Disastrous performance for Ben Bryant last time out at home against Western Michigan, completing just 57 percent of his throws for 156 yards and was shut out of the end-zone for the first time since Week 2. Game script favors Bryant this week against a Central Michigan team that is playing as well as anyone in the MAC right now. Does that mean fantasy success, though? QBs are averaging 26.1 FPPG against the Chips this season, but just 20.1 FPPG during this current three-game win streak. If CMU takes the defensive approach that Western did a week ago and play press-coverage, could be another long day as nothing worked offensively for the Eagles. 13 of the 16 rushing touchdowns allowed by the Chips this season have come during MAC play, but this is one of the better run defenses in the MAC, allowing under four yards a carry in eight of the 11 games played this season. Eastern Michigan’s backfield is a committee between Jawon Hamilton, Darius Boone Jr. and Samson Evans where the staff will go with the hot hand each week. Last week was Hamilton’s turn, rushing for 179 yards on 19 carries, though that was more than he had run for in the last four games combined. You’re not playing anyone here in a 12-game slate. Whoever you choose would be the wrong guy situation with the EMU backfield. Same three names at receiver here with Hassan Beydoun, Tanner Knue and Dylan Drummond who see equal distribution with the target share. Look at PFF’s matchups, I’m probably fading Beydoun here as CMU’s nickel corner is their highest-rated defender. Drummond is the cheapest and actually has the most favorable matchup of the group if going against Rollian Sturkey as PFF projects. WR1s are averaging 21.8 FPPG and WR2s are averaging 15.1 FPPG against the CMU defense so I think we’ll want to roster at least one of the trio here.
Central Michigan:
Eastern Michigan really can’t defend the run or the pass this season, but the Eagles are most vulnerable at defending the run. So yes, spending up for Lew Nichols still makes sense this week, even at $10k. Production and volume as a runner and passer is all there – Nichols is the total package in a favorable matchup. EMU is actually only allowing 16.8 FPPG this season to opposing RB1s, but are 115th in Rush Play Success Rate and 127th in Rush Play Explosiveness defensively. Hit or miss when it comes to QB Daniel Richardson who is averaging just 15.8 FPPG , but has failed to hit 18 fantasy points in four of his last six games. Has played well the last two games, completing 80 percent of his passes vs. Ball State and Kent State. EMU is 117th in Pass Play Success Rate, but the Eagles have done a really nice job of limiting the big play through the air, ranking 27th in Pass Play Explosiveness. I think those numbers bode well for someone like a Kalil Pimpleton whom Richardson looks to around the LOS with an aDOT of just of just 6.6 over the last two weeks, not to mention the potential added scoring value with his return abilities. Dallas Dixon gets the best matchup of the CMU receivers lined up against CB Jarrett Paul who grades out poorly in coverage, though you worry about the EMU’s ability to limit the deep ball because that’s where Dixon makes a living with a 14.2 aDOT on the year. Tight end Joel Wilson has scored four touchdowns in the last four games, but EMU is giving up just 3.8 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season with just one (Josiah Johnson) hitting double-digit fantasy points.
Boise State @ San Diego State
Point-Spread: Boise -2.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Weather: 73 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Boise State:
Credit to George Holani and this offensive line for the running game resurgence over the last month or so, but that comes to a crashing halt this week. San Diego State has allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs this season and are No. 1 in the nation in Rush Play Success Rate defensively. Boise State’s offensive line has improved since the start of the season, but not enough to overcome this defensive front of the Aztecs. San Diego State is not as dominant at defending the pass as they are the run, but still pretty damn good, ranking 13th in Success Rate and allowing just 19.1 FPPG. Not playing a non-runner in Hank Bachmeier against this defense. Love Khalil Shakir, who now has seen double-digit targets in each of the last four games, but probably not worth spending up to his salary given the matchup and low game total.
San Diego State:
This is a 9 am local start time. Is anyone going to be up to play or watch this game on the West Coast? This is a situation where we might have to monitor what happens in the San Jose State / Fresno State matchup. If Fresno State loses, the Aztecs win the West division and there is no incentive to play any starters realistically – similar to what we saw from Northern Illinois on Tuesday. This looks to be a full-team fade here. Boise State has held three of its last four opponents to under three yards a carry, and SDSU isn’t running the football all that effectively of late. No running back has scored more than 13 fantasy points against the Broncos in the last four games. Out on Greg Bell for those reasons, and we never invest in the San Diego State passing game. Boise State has the second-best pass defense in the Mountain West.
Utah State @ New Mexico
Point-Spread: UtSt -15.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Weather: 48 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Utah State:
So it’s going to be tough, but I can confirm you are able to put together some legitimate lineups with both Lew Nichols and Deven Thompkins included, and even mixed in some Deuce Vaughn in that lineup as well. Tempting since all three should have massive weekends. Last week was not the typical Thompkins performance we’ve come to expect, but much of that was due to a Wyoming secondary playing some really good football of late. New Mexico is not, but they’ve been “ok” on the backend, ranking 40th in Pass Success Rate and just 14 passing touchdowns on the season. Teams aren’t really needing to throw the ball much to beat New Mexico, and the Lobos are slowing games down now that they’re effectively running the triple option offense. If fading one of the higher-priced players on the slate, I actually think Thompkins might be the one here. Maybe a situation to look at some of the other Utah State receivers since this remains a pass-first offense. Derek Wright and Brandon Bowling combined for nine receptions on 16 targets last week, with Wright having found the end-zone six times in the last five games. Quarterback Logan Bonner had his worst performance in some time, completing just 19-of-40 passes, but still managed two passing touchdowns, giving him at least two in each of the last seven games. Opposing QB1s are averaging just 20.0 FPPG against the Lobos this season.
Can’t get a good read of how good/bad this New Mexico run defense is. Limited both UNLV and Fresno State to under 100 yards rushing as a team – and those are schools with some damn good running backs. But also just allowed 239 yards to Boise State last week. Doesn’t look like advanced stats favor the Aggies here as they’re just 124th in Rush Play Success Rate and 106th in Line Yards. I also read they could be without a starting o-linemen or two if not mistaken. New Mexico is middle of the road, ranking 69th in Success Rate. Calvin Tyler Jr. has received the bulk of the carries the last two weeks, rushing for 100+ against Wyoming, but not sure how much I like him at $6,200. $1k less and I’d be more willing. New Mexico allowing 16.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
New Mexico:
New Mexico is so ravaged at the quarterback position that they called up graduate manager Bryson Carroll, a former running back for the Lobos, to serve as a backup last week in the 37-0 loss to Boise State. Only one player of potential interest here and that’s freshman running back Aaron Dumas who has really played well down the stretch here despite the circumstances, averaging 4.8 YPC on the year. Dumas is just two weeks removed from rushing for 143 yards on 23 carries at Fresno State in Week 11 so he has shown to be capable. After allowing 362 rushing yards to Wyoming last week, Utah State is now dead last in the Mountain West against the run – though it must be noted the Aggies limited the previous three opponents prior to Wyoming to under 50 yards rushing. New Mexico ranks 125th in Line Yards and 127th in Rush Play Success Rate so I’m not advocating Dumas, but I also wouldn’t “x” him out of the player pool either.
Iowa @ Nebraska
Point-Spread: Iowa -1
O/U Total: 41
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
Iowa:
Alex Padilla got it done two weeks ago a min salaried quarterback, posting 22.5 fantasy points against Minnesota at home. That success lasted all of one was as he completed just 6-of-17 passes for 83 yards and an interception last week vs. Illinois. Padilla will now get the first road start of his career at Nebraska where the Cornhuskers are giving up just 18.6 FPPG to opposing QBs. 83rd in Pass Play Success Rate, but 22nd in Explosiveness so they’ll give up a lot of junk underneath. Doesn’t increase my interest in Padilla or any of the receivers (writing this pre-projections). Last weekend’s performance from the Nebraska run D feels like an anomaly as nobody is stopping Braelon Allen these days. Don’t forget the Cornhuskers are just two weeks removed from completely eliminating TreVeyon Henderson and the Buckeyes’ ground attack from the offensive game plan, and are 29th in Rush Play Success Rate. Iowa’s offensive line play is terrible compared to recent years, so I don’t have much interest in Tyler Goodson this week either. He’ll give you between 15-20 fantasy points as he’s done most weeks this season, but upside is capped because of Iowa’s struggles to push people around.
Nebraska:
If constructing your lineups solely on theCFFSite’s projections, Logan Smothers is a lock at $5,100, projected at 22.6 fantasy points. We’ve seen these min priced quarterbacks have success this year – Chandler Morris and Phil Jurkovec come to mind – and this is a 3-star recruit and not some walk-on here we’d be investing salary in. I consulted friend of the site and noted Nebraska fan Zach Hall who worked with me last year at our Patreon, and called Smothers a “poor-man’s Adrian Martinez” that has a noodle arm but can run. Morris and Jurkovec also didn’t face this Iowa defense, though, that’s allowing 18.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s and are in the top 15 nationally in run defense. We also have the risk of Smothers potentially sharing time with backup Heinrich Haarberg (what a name) depending on how the game plays out. Always risk involved with playing these min priced QBs, but ones that can run like Smothers raise his fantasy floor.
Nebraska’s backfield sounds like a mess right now. Not that we’re interested much in it facing an Iowa run defense that ranks 13th in the country and giving up just 10.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Against Wisconsin this past Saturday with Rahmir Johnson out due to injury, we saw a split between Markese Stepp and Marvin Scott III. I haven’t seen an update on Johnson’s status this week, but looking through the Nebraska boards, we have some transfer rumors that Scott and FR Jaquez Yant are both transferring (now or after the season), and Stepp might be the only healthy scholarship back on the roster. Unfortunately, he’s $4k with some better options at cheaper prices – Nick Mosley comes to mind. Samori Toure and Austin Allen dominated the target share last week vs. the Badgers, accounting for 20 of the 34 targets with both topping 100 yards receiving. Tall, athletic receivers seem to give Iowa defensive backs some trouble, but that’s not really Toure. Not advising with the downgrade at QB, but someone like Zavier Betts fits that profile and he’s seen an uptick in playing time the last three games with over 70 percent of the offensive snaps. The Hawkeyes are allowing 7.7 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season so Allen might actually be the best play of the bunch.
Missouri @ Arkansas
Point-Spread: Ark -14.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Missouri:
Based on projections, our only play here is Tyler Badie who is practically matchup-proof – aside from playing Georgia – averaging over 31 FPPG this season and hit at least 25 fantasy points in all but two games this season. I don’t love this matchup for him, though, hence his lower projection at 24 points which is the lowest it’s been since the beginning of the year (Georgia doesn’t count). The Razorbacks have limited opponents to under four yards a carry in each of the last five games and won’t have the advantage in the trenches where Arkansas is 29th in Line Yards and 28th in Rush Play Success Rate. On the season, Arkansas is allowing just 16.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Always in play because of his receiving ability, and would favor him on DK over FD based on scoring settings, but I think this is a matchup you can fade Badie and spend up elsewhere. I can’t muster the courage to roster Connor Bazelak at $5,300 as he hasn’t topped 15 fantasy points since Week 4, and we have beat writers asking his head coach about confidence these days. Arkansas can be leaky on the backend, allowing over 25 FPPG to opposing QB1s and are just 60th in Pass Play Success Rate. We don’t have a single Missouri receiver projected to score more than nine fantasy points this week. Badie or Bust here.
Arkansas:
Projection doesn’t necessarily agree with me here, but I think KJ Jefferson might be one of my favorite plays of the slate and may go underowned? All the focus will be on the Missouri run defense and which Arkansas running back can take advantage. I don’t totally disagree with that line of thinking but look at what the Tigers have done the last two weeks, holding South Carolina and Florida to under three yards a carry and just 150 combined yards between them. Meanwhile, Missouri has given up at least two passing touchdowns in seven of the last eight games, and are allowing over 28 FPPG to opposing QB1s on the season. Jefferson is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing for 326 yards and three scores vs. Alabama, and he’s seeing a few more touches in the run game with double-digit carries in the last three weeks. I know the spread is over two touchdowns, but Missouri comes in with a bit of momentum having won three of the last four – keeping it competitive works in favor of those rostering Jefferson. We saw guys like Warren Thompson and Trey Knox get a few targets last week, but this is Treylon Burks or bust with the Arkansas pass-catchers, with one of the highest target shares in the country. Burks doesn’t play in the slot exclusively, and opposing defenders are typically no match for the future first-round NFL Draft pick, but he’ll have a competitive matchup with nickel corner Kris Abrams-Draine who is one of the highest-graded defenders for the Tigers.
Dominique Johnson projects well for a player at $4,800, but I’m not instantly locking him into my lineups. We spoke on the improving run defense for Missouri already. Since being inserted as the starter, Johnson has yet to average more than three yards a carry in the last two games. And regardless of starting status, this remains a shared backfield with Trelon Smith, Raheim Sanders, and Jefferson all getting reps. Arkansas should win the battle of the trenches in this matchup so I’m not saying fade Johnson entirely, but this isn’t the free square that we would’ve thought a month ago.
South Florida @ UCF
Point-Spread: UCF -18.5
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 72 degrees / 9% rain / 11 mph winds
USF:
You want an under-the-radar shootout for Friday…this would be the matchup for me. I caution that with the USF side as Central Florida has limited four of its last five opponents to under 17 points, but we’ve also seen this Bulls’ offense find its footing of late, even against top-end defenses like Cincinnati. While everyone’s going to look to roster Logan Smothers as their cheap QB, why not spend $100 more for a “proven” option that we’ve seen start already in Timmy McClain. Projection isn’t as high, but Smothers’ projected total has to be attributed in part to Adrian Martinez’ numbers this season. USF also has a higher implied team total this week and is a heavy underdog so we should see McClain and the offense playing in catchup mode most of the day. I like this pivot if looking at a cheap second QB as I believe most will be favoring Smothers – aka higher ownership. WR1 Xavier Weaver did not play last week against Tulane, but will be available on Friday per head coach Jeff Scott. Two names I’m looking for at receiver here are Weaver and freshman Jimmy Horn Jr. who has led the team in targets the last two weeks. As shown against Cincinnati with his 80-yard reception, Horn can break one loose at a moment’s notice. Split backfield between Kelley Joiner Jr. and Jaren Mangham, and it’s a situation where the staff mostly looks to ride the hot hand, aside from in the red-zone where Mangham’s bull-dozing running style is preferred. UCF’s run defense is very Jekyll-Hyde-like this year, but seems to be overpowered by superior opponents – Cincinnati, SMU and Louisville all averaging over five yards a carry. Teams under .500 have not had as much success. Projections don’t indicate we need to roster any USF running back here.
UCF:
Head coach Gus Malzahn stated in his weekly presser that Isaiah Bowser did practice on Monday, and was suited up against Connecticut last week, but only would’ve seen the field in an emergency role. Does that change this week? UCF was just fine on the ground with the tandem of Johnny Richardson and former Auburn transfer Mark-Antony Richards who combined for 179 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries – 148 of which were from Richardson. Should Bowser sit again, both become viable options against a USF defense that is allowing over five yards per carry on the year and is really starting to unravel the last month with 13 rushing touchdowns given up. Keep tabs on the Bowser situation leading up to game time.
Mikey Keene is WAY too expensive at $8,400 and the only positive here is that he’ll have next to nothing in terms of ownership. Had a couple of nice performances over the last month, including last week with three total touchdowns vs. UConn, but we have him projected at just 17.9 points this week which eliminates him from the pool at that pricing. Ughhh, I suppose you could make an argument that USF is allowing over 31.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. Six quarterbacks have scored 30 or more fantasy points against the Bulls this season. Jaylon Robinson was back in the lineup last week, but only played 38 of 63 offensive snaps. Didn’t seem to bother WR1 Ryan O’Keefe much as he still led the way with nine receptions on 11 targets. Brandon Johnson found the end-zone for the fifth time in the last six games. WR1s are averaging north of 21 FPPG against USF this season, with WR2s topping 14 FPPG. All three are realistically in play here, but would favor O’Keefe/Johnson given Robinson’s limited snap counts.
Cincinnati @ East Carolina
Point-Spread: Cin -13.5
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 47 degrees / 18% rain / 10 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Best case scenario right now with Cincinnati on nearly every slate because we know the Bearcats must keep winning and keep winning big as they sit at No. 4 in the College Football Playoff standings. This is a lower implied total for Cincinnati than we’ve seen in recent weeks, though, as they travel to East Carolina. Not that the Pirates are any juggernaut on defense, ranking eighth in the AAC, but it’s a team riding a four-game win streak and has had some level of success against Cincinnati in the past. As is usually the case, we have to figure out which Desmond Ridder or Jerome Ford will do the most damage against the opposing defense, because it’s rarely advisable to roster both players. We’re seeing late 2020 Ridder in recent weeks, averaging 32 fantasy points per game over the last month, and is running more than he did earlier in the year. My hesitancy with Ridder in this matchup is ECU’s secondary which features a pair of talented cover corners in Ja’Quan McMillian and Malik Fleming. The Pirates are only allowing 12.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season.
In last year’s matchup, Ridder completed passes to 11 different Cincinnati pass-catchers and “this seems like a time where that stat would be consistent” per the Cincy beat writer, meaning we probably don’t need to roster any of the Bearcats’ receivers. Alec Pierce is priced down somewhat at $6,700 despite scoring two TDs last week, but doesn’t see the volume to warrant that price. Slot receiver Tre Tucker has seen an uptick the last two games with 13 receptions on 14 targets. In his return to the field, Ford finished with just 19 carries, but saw the majority of the snaps while the game was somewhat competitive vs. SMU. East Carolina is allowing just 18.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but was dominated by the best RB they faced all year in Rasheen Ali who posted 38 fantasy points. Ford should have his way as Cincinnati is 7th in Rush Play Success Rate.
East Carolina:
Trivia time – which quarterback has thrown the most yards against Cincinnati since Luke Fickell took over in 2017? Yep, that would be Holton Ahlers. Now, it was a tale of two wildly different outcomes as Ahlers threw for 535 yards and four touchdowns in 2019, and just 87 yards with three interceptions last year, but we have proof of Ahlers succeeding against a Fickell defense. We’re also seeing the infamous November version of Holton Ahlers that pops up every single year, now averaging 30 FPPG in three starts this month. Do I trust him against the second-best pass defense in the country? Nope. I’ll fade here and live with the results. I’m very confused by the projection discrepancy between Keaton Mitchell and Rahjai Harris this week as it’s been a near 50-50 split in terms of volume between the two. We’re also seeing a major difference in terms of pricing where Harris sits at just $3,700 compared to $7,000 for Mitchell. No doubt which of the two is the better player here, but I’m not sure what sense it makes to roster Mitchell when both are going to see nearly the same amount of touches. 10 of the 14 rushing touchdowns Cincinnati has allowed this season have come in the last six games, and four of those opponents have averaged over four yards a carry against this Cincy front.
Outside cornerbacks Coby Bryant and Sauce Gardner are two of the best in the nation so we can “x” out Audie Omotosho and C.J. Johnson here. WR1 Tyler Snead plays in the slot, and that’s where the Cincy secondary is most vulnerable as we saw last week with Rashee Rice leading SMU in targets. Snead is my favorite play of the ECU options at $6,200, averaging eight targets per game and has topped 100 yards receiving in the last two weeks. Tight end Ryan Jones has become a major factor in the ECU passing game with 15 receptions on 19 targets in the last three games, with three scores in that stretch. Opposing TE1s are averaging just 3.4 FPPG against this defense, though.
UNLV @ Air Force
Point-Spread: AF -18
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
UNLV:
I thought UNLV was going to be a full-team fade here, but we’re getting two touchdowns from the Rebels here and have four players projected to score double-digit fantasy points at the moment. RB1 Charles Williams is too pricey at $6,800 going against the No. 6 run defense in the country that just held Nevada to 18 yards on the ground. AF is giving up just 12.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s, though have allowed eight rushing touchdowns in the last four games. I’ll pass and live with the results. Freshman Cameron Friel is day-to-day with a foot injury so we’re likely to see former TCU transfer Justin Rogers get the nod on Friday. After barely playing for much of the year, Rogers came on in relief against the best defense in the MWC in San Diego State, and finished with 305 passing yards and two scores. Do I expect similar results against an Air Force defense that allows under 200 yards per game through the air, 17.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s and have now had a week to game-plan for Rogers? I’m sure you can sense my tone reading that. Oh, did I mention this week is a must-win for Air Force in hopes of playing in the Mountain West title game? Yea, I’m not investing much in the UNLV offense. WRs Steve Jenkins and Kyle Williams are moderately priced to where you could potentially consider them, particularly Jenkins who is averaging 10 targets a contest in the last four weeks.
Air Force:
Conflicted with how much exposure I want with slot-back DeAndre Hughes who is listed as a wide receiver on both sites, which increases my interest. The Air Force slot-back had an outstanding performance against Nevada with 221 rushing yards and two scores on 23 carries. All were season highs as Hughes had posted more than 10 carries in a game up until that point, and his snap counts have been steadily rising in the second half of the year – even out-snapping Brad Roberts last week. Still a very risky proposition for someone that has scored under five fantasy points six times this season. We know what to expect of fullback Brad Roberts who still sits second in the country in att/g at 23.9, and has bounced back the last two weeks, topping 100 yards with three touchdowns against Colorado State and Nevada.
What isn’t as concrete is do we roster anyone against a UNLV run defense that has steadily improved as the year’s gone along. The Rebels now sit fifth in the MWC and have held San Diego State, Hawaii and Nevada to under 100 yards rushing in three of the last four games. Then again, you also have evidence of New Mexico and their version of the triple-option offense rushing for 260 yards against this defense so who knows what to think. 17.3 projected points from QB Haaziq Daniels puts him in play at $5,800 but he’s a low-floor / low-upside candidate that I don’t prefer to waste my time with. Scored under six fantasy points twice in the last four games. “Wide receiver” Dane Kinamon wasn’t targeted a single time vs. Nevada but has rushed for 87 yards on 14 carries with a TD in the last two games.
Colorado @ Utah
Point-Spread: Utah -23.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 43 degrees / 1% rain / 3 mph winds
Colorado:
Lowest implied total of the slate here (14) and just one player in quarterback Brendon Lewis that is projected to score double-digit fantasy points. RB Jarek Broussard has topped 100 rushing yards in two of the last three games, and is just $4,500, but faces a Utah run defense that is rounding into form late, allowing under three yards a carry the last three weeks. Forgive me if I mostly skip the Buffs here with better things to do on Thanksgiving Eve.
Utah:
We’ve seen a similar situation in other parts of the writeup and will again with the next game as well. Utah has nothing to play for Friday with the Pac-12 Title game appearance already locked up after dismantling Oregon last weekend. Could we see Tavion Thomas get less reps as a result? Not like this is out of the question after his mysterious absence two weeks ago, and Utah is confidence in their backups with Micah Bernard and TJ Pledger. How much will the coaching staff expose Cam Rising with questionable depth behind him at the position? WR Devaughn Vele might be my favorite play as a min priced option given he plays 90 percent of the offensive snaps – more than any other Utah player outside of the offensive line and Rising. I think there are a number of good plays here, but we’ll need to try and get a sense on Friday of what the potential strategy is for Utah offensively.
TCU @ Iowa State
Point-Spread: ISU -15
O/U Total: 59
Weather: 35 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
TCU:
The TCU offense has been riddled with injury this season, though quarterback Max Duggan was back in the saddle last Saturday, reclaiming his starting job from Chandler Morris, who is now himself dealing with an injury — though this is a move also to preserve his redshirt looking forwards to the future. There was some rust as Duggan has missed the last two games, but the junior quarterback got the job done with his legs as he always has, rushing for 74 yards and a score on 14 attempts. Duggan was one of three players with at least 10 carries as TCU split the workload in the backfield between Keandre Miller and Emari Demercado, helping the Horned Frogs rush for 300-plus yards as a team for the second time this season. Starting running back Zach Evans has not played the last four games due to a foot injury and likely will not play again this season. A month ago, we would’ve said that Duggan would have to get it done through the air against Iowa State and their stout run defense that was No. 1 in the Big 12 for much of the season. Not the case anymore, as we’ve seen some leakage with the Cyclones allowing over 200 yards in the last two weeks with both Oklahoma and Texas Tech averaging six yards a carry. Quentin Johnston likely won’t play either, so you’re looking at a top four at receiver of Derius Davis, Blair Conwright, Quincy Brown and Taye Barber who dominated the snap counts against Kansas last week. Davis, despite seeing the field the least amount of the four, has been the most effective, scoring double-digit fantasy points in three of the last four games. Do we trust Duggan to throw it consistently on the road against this Iowa State secondary? Nope.
Iowa State:
There’s no way Breece Hall plays a full game here, right? Sure, it’s his last home game before heading off to the NFL, but Hall would be needlessly putting himself in harm’s way for an Iowa State team that has absolutely nothing to play for this week at 6-5. Obviously a favorable matchup for Hall going against a TCU run defense that ranks 121st in the country with 30 rushing touchdowns allowed. My guess is that Hall looks to extend his touchdown streak to 24 games before giving way to some of the young players. FWIW – there is no mention of this by Matt Campbell that I’ve seen, but just a hunch. Campbell stated in his weekly presser that everyone should be ready to go for Friday, meaning QB Brock Purdy will be a go after taking on several huge hits in the loss to Oklahoma, forcing him out of the game. Another favorable matchup with TCU giving up 28.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s on the year, but I still wonder how the game script goes here with the Cyclones having nothing to play for Friday.
Charlie Kolar is finally NOT $4,500 as he’s seemingly been the entire season. Good on DK as Kolar has 25 receptions and three touchdowns over the last three games, and has seen a target uptick, averaging 10+ over that span. We know about Xavier Hutchinson and his consistency through the last two years, but want to spotlight up-and-comer Jaylin Noel who is going to be a name to remember in future seasons. The true freshman slot-man has garnered heavy praise from Campbell, both on and off the field, and has seen an uptick in playing time the last three weeks, resulting in 17 receptions on 21 targets. This is a perfect spot in a meaningless game for a coming out party – unless the coaching staff devises a game-plan to spotlight this decorated Iowa State senior class at home.
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