Florida State @ Florida
Point-Spread: Florida -2.5
O/U Total: 59
Weather: 63 degrees / 2% rain / 5 mph winds
Florida:
Conflicting Report Szn! Original report came out from the Gainsville Sun on Wednesday suggesting that Anthony Richardson would be the starting QB vs. FSU, that information has now be amended to “could start” as Emory Jones did practice on Wednesday. With Mullen out of the picture, I hope the administration steps in and demands we get Richardson on Saturday, if for any reason to find out whether or not the sophomore quarterback is a true building block for the new coaching staff. If we get word that Richardson is healthy and the starter, he’s locked in for me at $6k against a Florida State defense that is allowing 31.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Three-way split in the backfield with Dameon Pierce, Malik Davis and Nay’Quan Wright. Point per dollar, Wright is probably the best play here at min salary with him seeing an uptick in snap counts over the second half of the season, and did out-carry both Pierce/Davis against Missouri. Pierce is the highest-projected RB of the trio, but don’t think he makes a ton of sense here at $6k if they’re splitting carries three ways. Top three are receiver were pretty established against Missouri with Justin Shorter, Jacob Copeland and Trent Whittemore dominating the snap counts. Sporadic production for all three over the course of the year, but recency bias favors Copeland here as he was targeted 12 times vs. the Tigers. TE Kemore Gamble won’t be breaking any slates and has had a few goose eggs this season, but is averaging five targets per game over the last five weeks.
Florida State:
Projections suggest we should lock in QB Jordan Travis at $6,900 who got a price drop after throwing three touchdowns last week at Boston College. Gut instinct had me locking in Travis at this price-point against a beleaguered Florida team that just gave up 416 passing yards to Samford two weeks ago and now doesn’t have a head coach. But the secondary had a bounce back performance against Missouri last Saturday, holding the Tigers to just 165 yards through the air and one TD. That’s reminiscent of how the Gators’ secondary has performed in the second half, limiting six of the last seven opponents to under 200 passing yards. On the season, opposing QB1s are averaging just 17.7 FPPG. Travis is always in the player pool of available options because of his usage on the ground, but don’t be shocked if he struggles throwing the football.
Jashaun Corbin’s pricing continues to fall, and for good reason as we’ve suggested previously with Travis inserted into the lineup. Averaging just 58 yards per game on the ground with Travis as the starter, and we’re seeing a 60-40 split between Corbin and backup Treshaun Ward. On the ground is where Florida is most vulnerable, allowing 19.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but Travis prohibits the running backs from producing big numbers as this season has indicated. Never advisable to play a Florida State wide receiver, so for me, it’s Travis or bust with the Seminoles here.
Wake Forest @ Boston College
Point-Spread: WF -5
O/U Total: 64.5
Weather: 38 degrees / 15% rain / 14 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Digging into this a bit, I’ll probably be avoiding Sam Hartman at $9,300 despite being projected at 33 fantasy points this week. For one, spending up for even one quarterback this week feels unnecessary. Boston College also fields the No. 1 pass defense currently in the ACC, allowing just 168 passing yards per game and 21.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Lastly, and maybe most troubling, is that the turnovers are starting to pop up again for Hartman like they did in 2020, tossing six of his nine interceptions in the last three weeks. But there is a lot at stake here for Hartman and the offense to play well this week as a win secures a spot in the ACC title game so motivation should be high for the entire WF offense.
Zero updates from Dave Clawson as far as injuries in the Wake backfield as neither Christian Beal-Smith nor Justice Ellison played last week. Clawson basically indicated TBD. Even with two regulars out of the rotation last week, WF still shuffled three different running backs with Christian Turner, Armani Marshall and Quinton Cooley with little success. Boston College is a bit more forgiving defending the run then Clemson is, so if we do get news that CBS and Ellison are both out, I might consider Turner here at $3,900. RB1s are averaging 16.1 FPPG against BC this season. Despite being in a boot all week, looks like Jaquarii Roberson saw his normal allotment of offensive snaps, so we should see the regulars at WR for Wake Forest, along with A.T. Perry, Taylor Morin and Donald Stewart. Boston College’s best defender on defense is nickel man Josh DeBerry who should match up with Roberson in the slot. I might pivot to Perry here as the one to own.
Boston College:
Situation to monitor pregame on Saturday unless we get official word beforehand because the flu is going around campus at BC currently. Head coach Jeff Hafley was asked which position groups were hit the hardest, and he did not specify (shocker) but indicated its around 15 players right now that are battling the sickness. The adjustment on Phil Jurkovec’s salary to $7,800 proves that last week was a complete algorithm malfunction on DraftKings’ part because he didn’t even play well last weekend to deserve the price bump, and DFS players got bailed out by a few late touchdowns (yes, I’m salty). Another favorable matchup this week for Jurkovec facing a Wake Forest defense allowing 28.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s on the year. Why Jurkovec didn’t find success last week was the ferocious Florida State pass rush that created havoc all game long. Wake Forest doesn’t have that kind of defensive front.
I thought the return of Jurkovec would open up the running lanes for Pat Garwo more than it has to this point. Volume is certainly not the issue with 30, 24 and 25 carries, respectively, over the last three games. But under four yards per carry average for Garwo in that span vs. some very suspect defenses. Not all Garwo’s fault though as the offensive line for BC has failed to live up to expectations, ranking 120th in Stuff Rate and 113th in Line Yards. I don’t see a particularly high ceiling for Garwo this week as a result, but Wake Forest can’t defend the run either, ranking 123rd in Rush Play Success Rate and allowing over 20 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Think you’re looking at 15-20 fantasy points and you’ll have to decide if that’s worth it or not at $6,100.
15 of the 22 targets last week went to the starting trio of Zay Flowers, Jaden Williams and Jaelen Gill who all project “relatively” well considering their pricing. Wake Forest is bad across the board when it comes to their cornerbacks, all sitting below a 60 rating for coverage grades. Outside receivers like Devin Carter, Dontayvian Wicks and Emeka Emezie have given Wake Forest the most problems this season which would appear to favor someone like Flowers the most. BC doesn’t offer a lot of height with their receivers, all standing under six feet.
Georgia @ Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: UGA -35
O/U Total: 54.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Georgia:
Georgia can score 50 points and not have a single player be fantasy relevant. I don’t mind being perfectly blunt here in saying that I don’t watch any Georgia games because we already know the outcome and they aren’t entertaining to someone who is not a fan. Zzzzz. Stetson Bennett looks to be an option at $7,300 as the highest-projected UGA player for this week, but that is too risky a play for me for someone with very little upside. He has a floor of five fantasy points as we saw earlier in the year in a 37-0 win over Arkansas, and we could see JT Daniels once again as Georgia continues to prepare for bigger goals down the road. Complete fade of any pass-catcher here in what will be a 40-point victory. 16 different players caught a pass last week against Charleston Southern. The only mildly interesting storyline here is if we see George Pickens make an appearance as he’s close to returning. No doubt he’s going to play a role in the SEC Championship game and beyond, so the staff needs to get him up to playing speed. Oh yea, he’s min priced too. James Cook has outperformed Zamir White in recent weeks and is cheaper so he would be the play at RB, but we’ll likely see 5-6 running backs get 5-6 carries in this blowout. Whoop-de-doo, fade them.
Georgia Tech:
Lol, NOPE.
Texas Tech @ Baylor
Point-Spread: Baylor -14
O/U Total: 52
Weather: 56 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
Texas Tech:
I know those that strictly look at projections and spreadsheets and ownership percentages won’t give a damn about this, and it may not matter, but I think Texas Tech will play loose and free on Saturday in the possible role of spoiler. The Red Raiders have already secured bowl eligibility. The new head coach, Joey McGuire, is locked in and out on the recruiting trail. And now interim head coach Sonny Cumbie has been retained as the future OC. No pressure at all Tech Saturday, so maybe time to turn it loose? Freshman Donovan Smith got a reality check last week against Oklahoma State, completing just 9-of-29 passes for minimal yardage. But this is still a player that posted 31 fantasy points against the second best defense in the conference just two weeks ago. Another challenge for Smith this week as Baylor ranks fourth in the Big 12 in pass yards allowed per, and just 21.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Not a dominant pass defense by any stretch, though, and Smith should get at least 10 carries on the day. Exactly what you want from a $5,200 player. Not touching the Tech backfield as it’s a three-way split between SaRodorick Thompson, Tahj Brooks and Xavier White, with nobody projected at more than seven fantasy points. Lean Brooks here if selecting one, strictly based on salary. Never know with late-season games if teams are seeking an extended look at some younger players, but the target share at receiver last week reflected what we’ve seen the entire year with Erik Ezukanma, Kaylon Geiger and slot-man Myles Price getting the majority of the work. Easy-E saw a slight decrease in salary to $6k and does have the best matchup of the three receivers when looking at Baylor’s secondary. Baylor’s nickel corner is the highest-rated defender on the team so I’m out on Price in the slot.
Baylor:
Full dosage of Abram Smith on Saturday? Starting QB Gerry Bohanon is doubtful, so we’ll see Blake Shapen get his first start of his career. Don’t ask me for a scouting report because I’ve never seen him play football. If last week was any indication, turning to Shapen isn’t much of a downgrade as he completed 16of-21 passes for 137 yards, while adding 44 yards on five carries on the ground. Not enough evidence for me to consider him at $6,800, despite Texas Tech allowing 29.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. As for Smith, we should see 20+ carries on Saturday, but this Red Raider run defense has improved dramatically since the start of the season, allowing under four yards a carry in the last four games. Backup Trestan Ebner continues to receive double-digit carries each week, and I suspect that continues with a backup QB under center. Was targeted a season-high seven times last week vs. Kansas State, making me wonder if Shapen prefers to check the ball down as an inexperienced QB. I’ll fade the Baylor WRs as Tyquan Thornton is too expensive, and R.J. Sneed has just 12.4 fantasy points total in the last three games.
Ohio State @ Michigan
Point-Spread: OSU -8
O/U Total: 64.5
Weather: 34 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Ohio State:
I’m not sure that I can rationally speak on this game given my fandom towards the Maize and Blue. C.J. Stroud projects well, as he should, given how the redshirt freshman has performed of late with 11 passing touchdowns in the last two weeks. And this game total continues to rise as the week goes along, so points are to be expected on Saturday. But this will be Stroud’s toughest test to date as Michigan allows just 16.4 FPPG to opposing QBs and will get after him with arguably the best pair of bookends in the country with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. Four times this season, Stroud was sacked at least twice in a game. In three of those games, his fantasy point totals were 19, 8 and 33. If Michigan can get pressure on the young QB, he will not reach value this week. I do think TreVeyon Henderson could potentially be a strong pivot here as the Michigan run defense can be exposed at times as we saw with Kenneth Walker. While Ojabo is a tremendous pass rusher, teams will typically run to his side on defense. And Henderson is no match for the Michigan linebackers in the screen game. I’ve got overs on 72.5 for rushing yards on Prize Picks currently, so I am confident in Henderson having a good performance Saturday. Whichever Ohio State receiver I tout, its going to be the other one(s) that go off so I’ll refrain from making a choice between Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Michigan has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs, and since it’s a fairly even target distribution between the group, I might fade all of them here.
Michigan:
This is absolutely a game in which Cade McNamara is playable at $5,900 with an implied team total of 28. Say what you want about his overall skillset, but McNamara has played at his best in the biggest moments this season, including 400+ yards on the road against Michigan State and 217 yards with three touchdowns at Penn State a few weeks back. Nine of McNamara’s 14 passing touchdowns on the season have come within the last four games, and if you believe Michigan will be trailing here, game script also favors the junior QB. I’d put the odds at 99 percent that Blake Corum will play this week as he was suited up against Maryland last Saturday, but was not needed in the blowout victory. With that, I don’t think Hassan Haskins is playable here at $7,900 against an Ohio State defense that allows just 12.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year, and completely stifled Kenneth Walker last week. This is still a Jim Harbaugh-led team so Michigan won’t stray too far from running the football, but you’re more likely to see 15 touches here from Haskins with Corum back. We get official word that Corum is back in the lineup, and he’s very intriguing at $4,400 given he’ll see 15 touches as well if the early portion of the season was any indication.
Call it a hunch, but Andrel Anthony has been really quiet since his breakout performance against Michigan State. He’s now splitting time with Roman Wilson, but is the far superior player in my eyes. I think you can make an argument for both players this week given pricing and game script. They’re in the top three, along with WR1 Cornelius Johnson who is out for me solely due to pricing. McNamara distributes targets evenly across the board so I’d rather take a shot on a cheaper option. Three tight ends have topped double-digit fantasy points this season against the Buckeyes, so Erick All is also in play at $3,800. Was targeted 20 times in the three games leading up to last week where All was not need against Maryland.
PS – GO BLUE
Maryland @ Rutgers
Point-Spread: MD -1.5
O/U Total: 53
Weather: 42 degrees / 1% rain / 16 mph winds
Maryland:
Truly hope Rutgers wins this matchup so I don’t have to write about Maryland again this season as they’ve been on practically every slate. Decent matchup for Taulia Tagovailoa, projected at over 21 fantasy points at a modest salary, but there are cheaper options like Anthony Richardson or Aidan O’Connell that I’d much rather prefer. Rutgers is eighth in the Big Ten in yards allowed per game, are giving up 21.2 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and have allowed at least two passing TDs in six of the last seven games. Good, not great play. The Rutgers defense has played well of late at defending the run, albeit against below after teams running the football in Indiana and Penn State. I don’t have a great feel as to what Maryland will do here, but FR Colby McDonald here is intriguing at $3k after leading the Terps with 18 carries vs. Michigan. Tayon Fleet-Davis was more effective with his 11 attempts, averaging 6.5 YPC, but McDonald did have a Michigan offer coming out of high school so conventional wisdom would suggest this player does have some talent. Probably a stay-away spot as Rutgers allows just 14.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but always have to mention a min-salaried player that is likely to see significant playing time. Starting trio at receiver consists of Rakim Jarrett and 6-foot-5 Carlos Carriere on the outside with Brian Cobbs running in the slot. Cobbs sits at min pricing, and was second on the team with six targets last week. Carriere presents matchup problems for opposing defenses with his size. Jarrett was targeted just twice against Michigan following his 10-catch performance at MSU the week prior. How Maryland lines up would actually play a huge role in how I attack this group, because Rutgers’ slot corner grades out terribly in coverage. Cobbs was in the slot last week vs. Michigan, but Jarrett could easily slide there as he has at times during the year.
Rutgers:
I can’t believe I’m going to say this but……. Isaih Pacheco is definitely an option this week at $3,900. Yes, Maryland is still fighting for a bowl berth, but after watching their defense last week against Michigan, they’ve quit on the season. Allowing five yards a carry over the last six games, and have now given up the fifth-most fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs. Pacheco has not been featured as much in the passing game as he’s been in recent years, but did convert on all four of his targets vs. Penn State. I’m not forcing a running back who’s averaging under four yards a carry into my lineups, but if you have $4k to spend at the flex this week, Pacheco is my guy. Never roster Noah Vedral is a rule to live by, no matter the matchup. Only other option outside of Pacheco would be WR1 Bo Melton who is averaging over eight targets a game this season.
Oregon State @ Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -7
O/U Total: 60.5
Weather: 53 degrees / 38% rain / 4 mph winds
Oregon State:
As is usually the case most weeks, the only player we can even contemplate is RB1 B.J. Baylor. Quarterback Chance Nolan is way too expensive at $7,400 for a player that is averaging 17 FPPG and has topped 20 fantasy points just once in the last seven games. Not trusting him on the road in possible rain. The Ducks are allowing 24.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, but are 30th in Pass Play Explosiveness and 66th in Pass Play Success Rate. This also applies to the receivers where it’s mostly a “get the ball to who is open” approach as opposed to having a certified WR1 and target hog. Trevon Bradford has emerged as the WR1 during the second half of the season but is far too expensive at $6k to warrant much consideration. No other Oregon State receiver played more than 40 percent of the offensive snaps against Arizona State last week as the staff will rotate between 4-5 different players frequently. Baylor is the play here as Oregon State is averaging 5.44 YPC this season which is second in the Pac-12. The Ducks are third in the conference at defending the run, but coming off their worst performance of the season, giving up 208 yards and four touchdowns to Utah. Oregon State ranks 3rd in Rush Play Success Rate, 2nd in Line Yards and 14th in Stuff Rate so they have the offensive line that can matchup with this talented Oregon front seven.
Oregon:
Of course, the Oregon State run defense decided to show up last week when I bet the over on Rachaad White rushing yards. The Beavers had allowed over five yards a carry in the three weeks before the Arizona State matchup, and are middle of the road within the Pac-12. Oregon State is giving up over 21 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, so whether it’s Travis Dye or Byron Cardwell, I do feel the Ducks will have success running the football. Slightly disappointed we didn’t get a significant price drop on Dye after his 4.5-point performance last week, because I would’ve been jamming him in my lineups. Bounce back week incoming for the Oregon RB1. Sounds like Oregon will again be without Jaylon Redd and Johnny Johnson so the top four are pretty well established at receiver now with WR1 Devon Williams, slot-man Kris Hutson and two freshmen in Don’t’e Thornton and Troy Franklin. Hutson might be the play here at min salary as he was second on the team in targets (8), putting up 4-96-0. Last 100-yard receiving performance by an Oregon receiver came in this rivalry game a year ago. DFS players are going to be heavy on the cheaper quarterbacks this week, so if looking for lower ownership in GPPs, Anthony Brown might not be a bad option here at $7,700, projected at over 25 fantasy points this week. Was a struggle at Utah, but the entire offense had a bad night. OSU is allowing 26.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s and Brown gives us an excellent floor with his running ability. As a touchdown favorite, he should run a bit more than the nine carries he attempted last week.
Alabama @ Auburn
Point-Spread: Bama -19.5
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Alabama:
We entered the year thinking John Metchie WR1A and Jameson Williams WR1B. And That couldn’t feel more incorrect at this point in the year where I’m starting to consider Williams in the same vein as DeVonta Smith a year ago. Just when you think the focus could shift towards Metchie after a monster performance from Williams, the former Ohio State transfer did it again vs. Arkansas with 190 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Metchie was tremendous in his own right with 10-173-1 on 13 targets, and I saw plenty of winning lineups last week that bit the bullet to roster both. Both players are trending way up in conference play. I just don’t want to get caught again as I did many times a year ago in rostering Metchie because of salary, when there was a clear alpha in the room next to him who caught all the touchdowns. Doesn’t appear to be the case this year with both being very productive.
Auburn limited both Mississippi State and South Carolina to under four yards a carry the last two weeks, but both teams are near the bottom of the SEC in rushing. On the year, Auburn does grade out well vs. the run, ranking 20th in Rush Play Success Rate and 26th in Explosiveness. We know numbers and stats don’t really apply when facing Alabama because of the talent disparity, but could be a reason to fade Brian Robinson Jr. this week at his pricing. Of course, Robinson is plenty capable of rumbling for four touchdowns as he’s done already this year, but Alabama isn’t running as successfully as they did earlier in the year. My only suggestion is that if you roster Robinson, you fade the receivers, and vice versa. Can’t stack both phases of the Alabama offense. Auburn ranks lower than Arkansas this season at defending the pass, and Bryce Young is fresh off lighting up the Razorbacks for 500+. The Tigers are 107th in Pass Play Success Rate and allowing over 25 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. One feather in the cap for the secondary – not allowing the big play. 10th in Explosiveness.
Auburn:
Think this Alabama defense is going to come in hungry and angry after allowing 35 points to Arkansas last week? QB TJ Finley was proficient in his first start, throwing for 188 yards, one TD and zero turnovers, but that still wasn’t enough vs. South Carolina to come out with a win. He’s not under consideration for me this week, nor really is RB1 Tank Bigsby at $6,400 against the best defensive front in the country. An opponent hasn’t averaged more than four yards a carry vs. Bama since Week 3. RB1s are averaging just 10.5 FPPG vs. the Tide this season and are 8th in Rush Play Success Rate. Knowing Auburn will be forced to throw as a near three-touchdown dog, maybe we can look to one of the receivers here. Ja’Varrius Johnson was third in targets (7) last week vs. USC, but has the best matchup of the three, lining up against Malachi Moore in the slot. Outside receivers Shedrick Jackson and Demetris Roberson had 9 and 8 targets, respectively, last week with both hitting double-digit fantasy points. In all reality, this is probably a full-team fade here.
Northwestern @ Illinois
Point-Spread: Illini -6.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Weather: 44 degrees / 17% rain / 10 mph winds
Northwestern:
Even with a negative game script down multiple scores, Northwestern rode RB1 Evan Hull to the tune of 25 carries for 96 yards and a touchdown, while also targeting him seven times in the passing game. Hence, the high projection this week at over 21 fantasy points which definitely puts him in play here at $5,500 on DK. That’s now 18 targets in the last three games alone for Hull, converting that into 15 receptions. The Illini rank 12th in the conference at stopping the run, but have rebounded since a tough start to the year. Opponents have averaged under four yards a carry in five of the last seven games, with opposing RB1s getting just 13.0 FPPG. Still, you’re not investing a ton of capital here in Hull. Stephon Robinson Jr. is relatively cheap at $4,700 for a receiver that is averaging 8.5 targets per game over the last six weeks. Hasn’t found the end-zone, though, since Nebraska in Week 5.
Illinois:
Quick and easy here…it’s Chase Brown or nothing at all for the Illini. Northwestern is allowing 24 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, eighth worst in the country, and remain dead last in the Big Ten in run defense by a WIDE margin. Illinois has found a way to run on some formidable opponents this year so I don’t really expect them to struggle much forming running lanes for Brown. With this being the final regular season game, and Illinois out of the bowl picture, I do want to mention talented backup Josh McCray who has seen extended reps at times this year, and is healthy after getting six carries vs. Iowa last Saturday. Would I roster him? No. But would I be surprised if McCray got 10+ carries this week in preparation for 2022 as a building block? Also no.
Penn State @ Michigan State
Point-Spread: PSU -1
O/U Total: 52
Weather: 32 degrees / 2% rain / 4 mph winds
Penn State:
Sounds like Sean Clifford will be a go this week against the worst pass defense in the country, but may not be at 100 percent as he continues to deal with an illness. Backup Christian Veilleux performed well in relief last week against Rutgers, completing 15 of 24 passes for 235 yards and three scores, which might give him a leg up on the competition in 2022 when Clifford likely departs. Maybe we fade the QBs with the uncertainty here, despite the reasonable price-points, but we absolutely want a share of the Penn State passing game against this secondary. Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington are more than attainable at their current pricing after combining for 16 of the 29 targets last week vs. Rutgers with both finding the end-zone. Nobody else is worth considering in the Penn State passing game. Keyvone Lee got the majority of the carries vs. Rutgers for the second straight week, and ended up paying off his pricing with 41 yards and a touchdown. But that’s about as much as you can expect this year from a Penn State running back behind one of the worst run blocking O-lines in the country. As bad as MSU is at defending the pass, they can stop the run at a decent rate, ranking 43rd in Success Rate and allowing just 13.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Michigan State:
Not loving the MSU side here with injuries piling up late in the season, and the Spartans having little to play for this week as they’ve essentially been eliminated from the College Football Playoff race (good riddance). Not playing Kenneth Walker at his pricing who is nursing an ankle injury and, even if he does suit up, probably will give way to backups Jordan Simmons and Elijah Collins at some point. Penn State’s run defense has been sound the last three games, allowing under three yards a carry to Maryland, Michigan and Rutgers. Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor are both questionable this week so we could see a starting lineup comprised of Tre Mosley, Keon Coleman and Montorie Foster. Coleman scored the touchdown late last week, but would lean Mosley if choosing anyone as he’s been a consistent third option for the Spartans all year long. QB Payton Thorne is a marginal play when MSU is fully healthy. I can’t suggest starting him possibly without his top three playmakers against one of the best secondaries in the country. PSU is allowing just 13.0 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season.
Indiana @ Purdue
Point-Spread: Purd -15
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Indiana:
This offense is a train wreck and I want nothing to do with it, particularly in this rivalry matchup in a year where Purdue is above average on the defensive side of the ball. We have two QBs projected currently to combine for 19 fantasy points which isn’t great if that was one guy. Injuries have mounted at the skill positions, and it’s simply not worth diving into for a team with one of the lowest projected totals on the slate. Pass.
Purdue:
Tremendous performance from Milton Wright last week who was a slate-winner with 8-218-3 on 11 targets. He now has my full attention looking towards 2022 as the potential WR1 when David Bell heads to the NFL. That said, he’s a fade for me this week as his salary has now skyrocketed to $6,200. Not an indictment on Wright by any stretch, as he now has 28 receptions and four touchdowns in the last four games. But with Purdue having so many options in the passing game, including an established target hog in Bell, it makes it difficult to justify his cost. Could see lower ownership as a result, though, and this Purdue passing offense is humming right now behind quarterback Aidan O’Connell. Slot receiver Jackson Anthrop was a non-factor last week with just two targets, but can’t dismiss how he’d been performing the past three games with six receptions in each. Tight end Payne Durham has been splitting time with Garrett Miller at tight end since returning from injury, and his production has taken a hit with just two receptions in each of the last two games. Shame because Indiana allows 7.8 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season so Durham would be in play if he were producing up to his normal standards. As for the conductor of this passing game, O’Connell is likely to be the highest-owned player on the slate as he continues to be underpriced at $6,500 despite topping 30+ fantasy points in each of the last three games. The Hoosiers are allowing 24.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. I’d anticipate 20 fantasy points being the absolute floor for O’Connell this week, unless Indiana has just quit on the season and doesn’t put up a fight to where Purdue’s QB1 doesn’t need to sling it 30 times.
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
Point-Spread: UVA -7
O/U Total: 62.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
If we knew it would just be one quarterback this week, that guy would be in play against one of the worst rush defenses in the country. Unfortunately, no answers to this point between Braxton Burmeister and Connor Blumrick, and there is a good chance we see both on the field Saturday. Both are cheap enough that we could consider them in GPPs, but the issue is a rotation sounds very much possible. We’re getting close to four touchdowns with Virginia Tech so we have to keep them in back of our minds pregame, but would like some confirmation as to what the plan is beforehand. With Blumrick a factor, the running backs essentially become useless here, and it’s now a split backfield between Malachi Thomas and Raheem Blackshear. Don’t be surprised here if we see Virginia Tech rack up over 300 total yards on the ground this week as a team, but not have a single player relevant in DFS because we’re going to see a lot of faces back there. With questions at QB, I’m fading Tre Turner here as he is dealing with multiple injuries in what looks to be his final game as a Hokie. Tayvion Robinson likely will be the primary pass-catcher on Saturday, targeted five times last week vs. Miami.
Virginia:
Best spend-up option at QB looks to be Brennan Armstrong this week as he sits second overall in our weekly projections, just barely behind CFF MVP Bailey Zappe. Questionable coming into last week, Armstrong had a hell of a performance against Pittsburgh with 487 passing yards and three touchdowns, completing over 73 percent of his passes. Where I struggle with Armstrong is the Virginia Tech secondary that is playing very well of late, ranked 11th in Pass Play Success Rate and are second overall in the ACC in yards allowed through the air. That said, 27 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season when facing this Hokies’ defense. Virginia has no running game to speak of so the volume will be there for Armstrong, averaging the third most passing attempts (45.5) in the country. Dontayvian Wicks has a fantastic matchup against Virginia Tech CB Jermaine Waller who doesn’t grade out that well on PFF, and looks like he’s also questionable. Targeted 12 times last week, love Wicks as a GPP play that likely has little ownership because of pricing. Keytaon Thompson is finally priced up to a level he should be at, having been targeted on average 11.6 times per game over the last six weeks. He’s honestly become the team’s No. 1 option in the passing game. Armstrong is going to sling it, but there is a wide gap for me between Wicks/Thompson interest and the remaining pieces of the passing game. Billy Kemp is solid, but was targeted just three times last week and seems to have fallen down the pecking order a bit with Thompson’s emergence. His absolute ceiling is 20 points which doesn’t cut it at his pricing. Jelani Woods was targeted 11 times vs. Pittsburgh, but Virginia Tech has allowed just the sixth fewest fantasy points to tight ends in the country.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
Point-Spread: Wisc -7
O/U Total: 39
Weather: 35 degrees / 9% rain / 8 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Motivation won’t be an issue for either side in this matchup with a potential conference championship game appearance on the line. Wisconsin’s turnaround this season starts and ends with true freshman running back Braelon Allen. Seven wins in a row, and now seven straight games in which Allen has topped 100 rushing yards. Still just 17 years old, Allen has now rushed for 401 yards and six touchdowns the last two weeks since starter Chez Mellusi went down with a season-ending leg injury, averaging over eight yards a carry in that span. Saturday will present Allen’s most difficult challenge to date, facing a Minnesota defense that ranks third in the conference against the run, allowing just 103.6 yards per game, and has held five opponents this season under 80 yards. Graham Mertz is never playable, and it’s a complete joke that he’s the same pricing as Aidan O’Connell on DraftKings. Tight end Jake Ferguson remains just $3,200 despite his uptick in usage the last month with two touchdowns and 17 receptions on 23 targets. The Gophers have allowed a couple of big performances this season to opposing TE1s in Austin Allen (NEB) and Christian Sims (BG).
Minnesota:
It is quite an accomplishment what the Gophers have been able to do on offense this year despite losing their top two rushers to season-ending injuries, including a possible Heisman candidate coming into the year in Mohamed Ibrahim. Ky Thomas, a 3-star freshman, continues to impress with every passing week, having topped 100 rushing yards in four out of the last five games, including 106 yards and two scores in the blowout win over Indiana last Saturday. Despite the performances, he’s completely out of the picture at $7k on DraftKings facing the No. 1 run defense in the country.
For Minnesota to have a shot on Saturday, quarterback Tanner Morgan needs to have his best performance of the season because running yards don’t come easy against this Badgers defense. Morgan had his best outing of the year last week against Indiana with 196 passing yards and two touchdowns but has failed to top 200 yards passing in all but two games in 2021. Wisconsin’s front seven gets the headlines, but the secondary has played as well as anyone in the Big Ten, allowing just eight passing touchdowns on the year. The Badgers’ secondary will be looking to rebound after allowing a season-high 351 passing yards to Nebraska. All of this was a round-about way of saying fade the entire Minnesota offense this week.