Tulane vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -2.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Cin 24.5 – Tul 22
Weather: 49 degrees / 67% rain / 2 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Tyjae Spears ($6,400) This will probably be a better football game to watch with some high stakes on the line rather than from a fantasy perspective as both teams are very good defensively. Winner makes the AAC title game and has the best shot at the G5 New Year’s Six bowl appearance. The Cincy secondary is playing at an elite level again, allowing just two touchdowns in the last four games so not a ton of interest in the Tulane passing game. In these scenarios, lean on Tulane’s best offensive player in Spears.
Fade – QB Michael Pratt ($7,300) See above. This isn’t a secondary that features Sauce Gardner and Cobe Bryant anymore, but still one of the best groups in the country that is playing its best ball of the season. 18th in pass play success rate and allowing just 18.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s. I think LB/DE Ivan Pace Jr. and his 9.0 sacks this season could give Tulane’s OL some problems as that group ranks eighth in the AAC in that category.
Bargain Bin – TE Tyrick James ($4,300) Cincinnati is 102nd in FPPG allowed to opposing tight ends (7.9). Four different tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points on the Bearcats this season. James is tied for second on the team in receiving touchdowns (5) but sixth in targets (28) and receptions (23).
Pivot Play – WR Shae Wyatt ($4,900) We expected more from Wyatt in 2022 as he knows this offensive scheme like the back of his hand under offensive coordinator Jim Svoboda. 1,400 receiving yards back in 2020 at Central Missouri. That obviously didn’t transpire this year, but Wyatt appears to be trending upwards with four receiving touchdowns in the last three games.
Best of the Rest – WR Duece Watts ($4,600) We’ve avoided Tulane pass-catchers for much of the year and suggest doing the same again on Friday. Watts leads the team with just 42 targets and just 15% of the target share. It does appear Cincy can be prone to allowing a big play or two through the air, though, ranking 99th in explosiveness defensively. Perhaps Watts could give the secondary some issues with his team leading six receiving touchdowns and 16.2 aDOT.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyler Scott ($6,800) To reiterate, there aren’t any players in this game that I’m interested in really. Two defenses ranked inside the top 20 in yards per play allowed. 67% chance precipitation in the forecast. And on the Cincy side, we may see a backup quarterback (more on that later). Again, a situation here where we just lean on Cincinnati’s best offensive player in Scott who’s accounted for 23% of the team’s target share and 43% of the team’s receiving touchdowns (9).
Fade – Charles McClelland ($6,100) Maybe getting Prater in the lineup adds a different element, but the Cincinnati running game has been awful for the better part of a month. In the last four games, the Bearcats have rushed for just 287 combined yards, equating to 2.7 yards per carry. Tulane is not the team to try and fix those issues against, limiting opponents to just 3.83 yards per attempt for the year with nine rushing TDs allowed – second best in the AAC.
Bargain Bin – Ryan Montgomery ($3,300) On that note, because Cincy’s struggled to generate yards on the ground, they’ve turned to backup Ryan Montgomery over the last two weeks with 25 rushing attempts – more than he had in the first six games combined.
Pivot Play – WR Tre Tucker ($6,100) Four different receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points against Tulane this season as the Green Wave is allowing 17.1 FPPG to opposing WR1s. Good news for Tyler Scott then, right? There is a trend, though, with those four receivers. Nathaniel Dell – slot receiver. Jakarius Caston – slot receiver. Jimmy Horn Jr. – slot receiver. Eddie Lewis – just 33% of routes run come in the slot for the season. Against Tulane when he scored two touchdowns? 78% in the slot. Tre Tucker is in the slot 96% of the time. Just sayin…
Best of the Rest – QB Evan Prater ($6,000) I’d say it’s likely we see Prater get the nod over Ben Bryant as the latter was in a boot on crutches in the second half vs. Temple last week. The former 4-star recruit in the 2021 cycle has put up decent numbers with limited reps, completing 72% of his throws along with 113 rushing yards on 18 attempts.
Injury Notes – Stay tuned to the QB situation.
Baylor vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -7.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tex 31 – Bay 23.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 33% rain / 18 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Craig Williams ($4,800) By default Williams is the choice here but won’t have any Baylor exposure on this slate as they spread the ball around too much. This is essentially Year 1 for many of the Baylor skill position players as everyone of substance is an underclassman (Williams aside), and the Bears are better positioned to win the Big 12 in 2023 than they were this year. Seems like Dave Aranda is saving Richard Reese ($5,900) for next year at this point because Williams is getting the lion’s share of the workload of late, and he’s not the better player. Can Baylor run on Texas? Sure. But the Longhorns are 13th in rush play success rate and 9th in explosiveness so the only way I’d roster a Baylor running back is if they got 90% of the workload. We can’t say that Williams will get that.
Fade – QB Blake Shapen ($6,000) I’m not out on Shapen for 2023, but his production has taken a nosedive in the last five games. Three passing touchdowns in the last five weeks, averaging just 10.1 FPPG. Game script should at least play in his favor here as a touchdown underdog, meaning he’ll throw the ball 30+ times on Friday. But looking at his game logs…is that a good thing? Four QBs have scored 35+ fantasy points against the Longhorns this season so there is some hope I suppose.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Monaray Baldwin ($6,500) We’ve avoided Baylor receivers all year because of how spread out the targets are, but Baldwin has emerged the last two games with 14 receptions on 23 targets. Even if the targets weren’t there – and they weren’t for much of the year – Baldwin’s explosiveness keeps him in the conversation, averaging 17.7 YPC and a 13.0 aDOT.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – WR Josh Cameron ($4,200) Didn’t see it, but Cameron did leave the TCU game due to injury, only playing 53% of the offensive snaps. Shame too because he was on his way to a breakout performance with 68 receiving yards on three receptions in the first half. WR Gavin Holmes ($4,700) hurt his leg on the opening kickoff vs. TCU but is expected back per Aranda.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Bijan Robinson ($9,300) Not that he won’t be productive, but I think this is a week where we could potentially fade Bijan at his price point. Aranda’s defense smothered Robinson last year, allowing just 43 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts. This is far from last year’s Baylor defense, but still rank 43rd in rush play success rate. 19.4 FPPG is the yearly average for RB1s against Baylor, but I’m not sure we can make Bijan’s salary work here unless we punt the Sflex (not advisable).
Fade – QB Quinn Ewers ($7,000) I’ll go ahead and let others argue about Ewers and whether or not he’s a good quarterback at this stage in his career. Fact of the matter is he’s not playable as a fantasy option right now. Terrible completion rate, doesn’t run, and indecisiveness about where to throw the football. If making an argument in favor of Ewers, he’s facing a below-average Baylor secondary for Aranda’s standards, ranked 87th in pass play success rate. Six passing TDs allowed in the last three games, with all three QBs completing over 64% of their passes.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,600) Now that nobody will be on Xavier Worthy this week, it’ll be this matchup where he pops off for 150 and two scores. It was a quiet week for Worthy against Kansas, but understandable as Texas was punching Kansas straight in the mouth with Bijan and the ground game. Fact of the matter is that Worthy was averaging 10.1 targets per game in the four contests leading up to last Saturday. Assuming Baylor won’t be Swiss cheese defending the run this week, we’ll see a better stat line from Worthy. WR1s are averaging 19.1 FPPG against the Bears this season – 36th most in the nation.
Best of the Rest – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,900) I’ve written about Sanders repeatedly this season so we know the deal by now. I will point out that Baylor is allowing the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends. 19 targets in the last two games for WR Jordan Whittington ($5,400) though he has not scored more than 14 fantasy points in a single game all year. High floor, low ceiling play.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah State vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: BSU -16.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: BSU 35 – Utah St 18.5
Weather: 33 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Utah State:
Top Play(s) – WR Brian Cobbs ($6,300) Has Brian Cobbs lived up to the preseason hype of what we’ve come to expect from a WR1 under head coach Blake Anderson? Far from it, but the former Maryland transfer has had a productive year with 63 receptions and four touchdowns, leading the Aggies with 30% of the target share. Cobbs is also coming off a season-high 10 receptions for 122 yards on 15 targets last week against a good San Jose State defense. Just one WR has scored more than 17 fantasy points against the Broncos this season, so I won’t have much exposure to Cobbs here, but he’s easily the top play for Utah State.
Fade – RB Calvin Tyler ($6,000) I thought Tyler was getting bench two weeks ago after rushing for just 23 yards on 10 carries against New Mexico. Turned out to be a head injury that knocked him out of the game. Outside of that, Tyler has been outstanding with five 100-yard rushing performances in the last seven games. This is not the matchup to play Tyler, though, against a Boise State defense that is giving up the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing RB1s in the country.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WRs. We know about Cobbs. Overall, this has been a solid, but unspectacular group of receivers for Utah State this season, hurt some by the injury to Bonner at quarterback. But when Legas drops back to throw, he does target just three options with Cobbs, Terrell Vaughn ($5,200) and Justin McGriff ($4,500) who account for 67% of the team’s target share. Nobody else is involved much here.
Best of the Rest – QB Cooper Legas ($5,600) I remember after the bowl win against Oregon State last year that there were those opining for Legas to be the starter this year ahead of Logan Bonner. While Legas has led the Aggies to five straight wins, it hasn’t exactly been because of his stellar play. Facing three of the bottom-feeders of the MWC has certainly helped. Game script should be in favor of Legas, but this is an early start time on the road against the best defense in the conference. Boise State is allowing just 15.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB George Holani ($7,900) So we know that Holani will get at least 23 yards on Friday, which would give him his first 1,000-yard rushing season since his freshman campaign. How many more can he get vs. a Utah State defense that is 99th in rush play success rate and giving up 19.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s? Maybe the biggest cause for concern is how long Holani plays with Boise State locked into the MWC Championship game already.
Fade – WR Stefan Cobbs ($5,800) For one, the production hasn’t been there (unfortunately) for Cobbs this season to justify his $5.8k price tag in this situation. Secondly, Cobbs played just 22 snaps last week against Wyoming after leaving the game due to injury and it’s still fuzzy on his status for Friday. Best to just not deal with it and fade.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Ashton Jeanty ($5,000) The 4-star freshman has gotten 8-12 touches per game now for the better part of the season, and done well with his limited opportunities, averaging over five yards a carry. With Boise State being a double-digit favorite and the opening to rest Holani potentially before the conference title game, maybe Jeanty gets extended looks on Friday.
Best of the Rest – WR Billy Bowens ($5,700) Boise State is 27th nationally in rush play percentages so we’re not investing much in Broncos’ receivers as it is. If we were, it would be Bowens who’s scored a touchdown in consecutive weeks, giving him four in the last six games. QB Taylen Green ($6,600) has shown improvement with each passing game since taking over as the starter, now with nine touchdowns in the last four games. Any running quarterback at $6.6k is of interest in CFB fantasy or DFS. To their credit, Utah State has been sensational this year in the secondary, ranking 25th in pass play success rate and allowing under 20 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Injury Notes – See above on Stefan Cobbs.
Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan
Point-Spread: CMU -1.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: CMU 28 – EMU 26.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 33% rain / 14 mph winds
Central Michigan:
QB Bert Emanuel Jr. ($6,500) is the only playable option for CMU this week, and even that could be up for debate. The freshman quarterback split time with Jase Bauer ($6,400) vs. Western Michigan, playing 60% of the offensive snaps, though Emanuel did hold a significant advantage from a rushing attempt perspective. Here’s the kicker. Does Daniel Richardson ($6,200) factor into the equation at all? Richardson was clearly not going to play in the blizzard last week as neither team threw the ball much. Despite playing 90% of the offensive snaps, RB Lew Nichols ($6,500) ran the ball just 10 times and I don’t foresee a ton of motivation for him to play on Friday with CMU out of bowl contention, and the transfer portal opening up for potential suitors on December 5th. No confirmation there, just a hunch.
Eastern Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Samson Evans ($7,300) Similar argument to George Holani above in that we know EMU will try and get Evans at least 51 rushing yards in his attempts for a 1,000-yard season on the ground. Heavy, heavy workloads for the 218-pounder the last three weeks with a combined 81 rushing attempts with six touchdowns.
Fade – QB Taylor Powell ($6,900) Powell was exceptional in his return to the field last week, throwing for 315 yards and three scores in the win over Kent State. I have zero confidence that can be replicated this week in a game script that will not be as favorable. EMU was trailing at halftime and Samson Evans was averaging just 2.8 yards per carry on the night so the Eagles had to resort to throwing more than expected. Kent State is top 10 in the nation in pace, so it should be no surprise that the 84 offensive plays run by Eastern Michigan last week were the most all season. Central Michigan may not throw the ball more than 10 times on Friday so this could easily be a game that lasts 2 ½ hours.
Bargain Bin – WR Darius Lassiter ($3,600) Interesting that Lassiter is so cheap here despite the fact that he is third on the team in targets (50), receptions (31) and routes run. Now, his numbers have coincided with both Tanner Knue ($6,300) and Dylan Drummond ($5,900) missing time this season, explaining why the numbers show as they’re listed.
Pivot Play – WR Hassan Beydoun ($6,000) We could do a three-hour deep dive into the Eastern Michigan wide receiver room, and probably still choose the incorrect option in our lineup. And we’ve been burned numerous times over the years with unannounced absences and are unlikely to hear any news on a big football Friday slate. Beydoun does lead the team in targets (62) and receptions (45), but accounts for just 20% of the team share. The top four account for 73% of the team’s total share, so its not out of the realm of possibilities you could roster multiple EMU wideouts, but I’d suggest that more if they were all listed under $5k. Not feasible at these prices.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Toledo vs. Western Michigan
Point-Spread: Tol -8.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Tol 31 – WMU 22.5
Weather: 43 degrees / 24% rain / 11 mph winds
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – QB. Whoever it is between Dequan Finn or Tucker Gleason, that’s always the top play for Toledo. Its just a matter of if we’ll know who. During MACtion, we have national writers tweeting out that information. Does the same thing happen on the Black Friday slate? This game is essentially meaningless in terms of big picture with Toledo already locked into the MAC title game, so it might make some sense that Finn sits again if not at 100%. Gleason also injured himself in the win over Bowling Green last week, though it was a broken left hand so one would think he can still play if needed.
Fade – RBs. Never know what you had until its gone. He wasn’t a first-round draft pick, but Bryant Koback gave us 20 fantasy points every week and just called it a day. The Toledo backfield has been an absolute mess this year, and I would venture to guess that the 2023 RB1 for the Rockets either isn’t on the roster currently or is redshirting. We don’t have a single RB projected at more than eight fantasy points.
Bargain Bin – TE Jamal Turner ($3,900) Would you believe that just one this season Turner has failed to reach at least eight fantasy points? The numbers won’t jump off the page, but 6-foot-6 senior tight end has arguably been the second-most consistent option for Toledo this season outside of Jerjuan Newton. At least one receiving touchdown in seven of the last eight games.
Pivot Play – WR Jerjuan Newton ($5,200) The 5-foot-11 junior only accounts for 22% of the team’s target share but has 32% of Toledo’s receiving touchdowns. That number jumps to 53% if you only include wide receivers, so Newton has established himself as the clear WR1. Newton averages 6.5 targets per game through 11 weeks. That number is at 8.8 targets per over the last month.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Much like the RB situation, outside of Newton, you’ll be playing a guessing game as to which receiver (if any) pops in a lineup. WR DeMeer Blankumsee ($4,500) returned from injury in Week 11 and has been targeted four times in each of the last two weeks. WR Devin Maddox ($4,800) in second on the team on targets (52) and routes run among receivers and has posted 70+ receiving yards in the last three games. Both are dart throws for GPPs.
Injury Notes – Stayed tuned for QB updates…if we get any prior to kickoff.
Western Michigan:
Just two options for the Broncos here with RB Sean Tyler ($6,900) and WR Corey Crooms ($6,900) – neither of whom come at a discount for a team that is averaging just 14 PPG over the last five weeks. Fun stat – until Odieu Hilaire’s 45-point outburst last week against Toledo, the four highest scoring receivers this season to face Toledo were four Ohio State wideouts. Outside of that, this has been one of the better secondaries in the MAC. That said, Crooms is quite literally the only reliable pass-catching option for Western Michigan with 37% of the target share. I do really like Tyler from a “floor” aspect, averaging 22.2 carries per game over the last five weeks, but I wish he was like $1k cheaper. In argument for Tyler, Toledo is allowing 21.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, 9th most in the country. Five MAC running backs have scored 20 fantasy points or more vs. the Rockets this season.
Arizona State vs. Arizona
Point-Spread: Ariz -4.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: Ariz 34.5 – ASU 30
Weather: 63 degrees / 10% rain / 5 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Xazavian Valladay ($7,500) Plug and play every week. Quite literally the only downside here is that Arizona State might be without two starting offensive linemen. Other than that, Valladay has put up numbers against nearly every opponent this season and faces one of the worst rush defenses in the country. The Wildcats are allowing 20.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s in 2022.
Fade – WR Bryan Thompson ($4,500) Thought there was a chance the speedy Utah transfer would make an impact in 2022, but just hasn’t transpired. Fifth on the team in targets and six in routes run, despite having the second-highest price tag among ASU pass-catchers.
Bargain Bin – TE Jalin Conyers ($3,800) 23 of Conyers’ 36 targets this season have come in the last four games, along with four receiving touchdowns in that span.
Pivot Play – QB Trenton Bourguet ($7,700) I began to write up Bourguet before looking at his DK salary and let out a big sigh since I was hoping he’d be in the low $6k range. Bourguet got injured in the Washington State matchup two games ago, and then faced one of the better secondaries in the Pac-12 last week in Oregon State. Is it the fact that defenses now have tape on him, resulting in the pedestrian numbers? Absolutely a risky proposition at this price tag, but the matchup is there with an Arizona defense that is 99th in pass play success rate and allowing 31.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s – eighth most in the country.
Best of the Rest – WR Elijhah Badger ($7,000) Held to just 16 receiving yards on four receptions last week and was the first time in a month that Badger was not targeted 10 or more times. Still far and away the team’s WR1, averaging 8.2 targets per game and facing a defense that allows 17.8 FPPG to opposing WR1s in 2022.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden de Laura ($8,100) I’m surprised others were so high on de Laura last week facing one of the best secondaries in the Pac-12 in Washington State. Five turnovers and one sideline altercation with Dorian Singer, yet JDL still wasn’t benched by the coaching staff. With Arizona out of bowl contention, I did wonder if de Laura could be benched this week for another option but doesn’t appear likely. 300+ passing yards in four of the last five games, facing a secondary that is 99th in success rate and allowing 26.4 FPPG.
Fade – n/a. Arizona’s production is centralized between Jayden de Laura, Michael Wiley and the top three receivers. They’re all in play.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner McLachlan ($3,700) This play busted last week but we’re going back to the well here with the 6-foot-5 junior tight end as a potential option. Tight ends have feasted on Arizona State’s defense like Thanksgiving turkey, as TE1s are averaging 9.9 FPPG against the Sun Devils for the season. Three different Pac-12 tight ends have scored 16 fantasy points or more vs. ASU.
Pivot Play – RB Michael Wiley ($6,300) Not many RBs on the slate with a higher floor this week than Wiley, despite playing on an Arizona offense that runs the ball just 40% of the time – 125th in the country. For one, Arizona State cannot stop the run and has essentially given up defensively this season, allowing 20.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Two, Wiley’s floor is so high because of his production in the passing game with 33 receptions on 41 targets. Perfect for DK’s full-point PPR scoring setting.
Best of the Rest – WRs. We all know the deal here by now with Jacob Cowing, Tetairoa McMillan and Dorian Singer. Choose one, possibly two, and don’t triple stack for your DFS lineups. As for who to prioritize, part of me does like Cowing here. While 99th in pass play success rate, Arizona State is 14th in explosiveness so they’ll limit the big play. Downfield shots are not needed for Cowing to be productive with an 8.4 aDOT.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: Ark -3.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Ark 29.5 – Mizzou 26
Weather: 52 degrees / 14% rain / 7 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Raheim Sanders ($7,000) It had been a while since we’d seen THAT version of Raheim Sanders, rushing for 232 yards and three touchdowns against Ole Miss last Saturday. We didn’t see “as much” rotation with the backups and KJ Jefferson had just five designed runs, well below his seasonal standard. If Arkansas’ OL can perform the way it did a week ago, Sanders can run on anyone in the country. That said, Missouri is allowing just 12.5 FPPG against opposing RB1s in 2022.
Fade – WR Jadon Haselwood ($5,300) I’ve faded Haselwood every week of the CFB DFS season and am in the green for the year, so why change it up now? Just four receivers this season have scored more than 20 fantasy points against this Tigers’ secondary, two of which in the same game in the blowout loss to Tennessee. Overall, WR1s are averaging just 14.1 FPPG against Missouri…and Haselwood ain’t the WR1 here.
Bargain Bin – WR Ketron Jackson ($3,800) We did not see any WR rotation against Ole Miss last week with the top three receivers all playing 68% or more of the offensive snaps. The 6-foot-2 sophomore wound up playing the most snaps of any Arkansas wideout and found the end-zone. Low conversion rate at 46% with 15 receptions on 33 targets.
Pivot Play – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,200) As we saw last week, Jefferson and Sanders in the same lineup can work, combining for 75 fantasy points between them. How viable an option is it this week? Not as intrigued by Jefferson if he is only getting five designed rushing attempts which depresses his value. And is facing an above average Missouri secondary that is 33rd in pass play success rate and giving up just 18.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Just two QBs all season have scored more than 20 fantasy points against the Tigers.
Best of the Rest – WR Matt Landers ($5,600) Targets have fallen off slightly the last few weeks, mostly due to the KJ Jefferson injury, but Landers continues to be Arkansas’ most effective receiver with three touchdowns in the last two games.
Injury Notes – QB Katravis Marsh is out for the season.
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Cody Schrader ($4,700) Don’t know how I feel about this play, but at this price, Schrader is close to a lock for cash games. Matchup? Check. Arkansas is 118th in rush play success rate and now giving up 18.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Volume? Check. Schrader has asserted himself as the team’s RB1, averaging 18 rushing attempts over the last five games. Featured in the passing game? Check. Not a ton of production but three or more targets in each of the last six games. This is a play I like to fade for GPPs because of his popularity, but a near lock for cash.
Fade – WR Tauskie Dove ($3,800) This is one of those things that a Missouri fan would have to explain to me. Why does Dove lead the team in routes run, yet just 32 targets for the season…aside from he’s just not that good. But why do coaches consistently put him on the field then? Either way, not an option. Eight targets and five catches in the last four games.
Bargain Bin – WR Barrett Banister ($3,800) I saw Barrett Banister’s prop listed on FanDuel initially as 58.5 and immediately hammered the under without blinking. Looking back, maybe I should’ve blinked. 14 receptions on 16 targets in the last two games alone. If you’re in the 4.0 yards per route run range, that is near elite play for a wide receiver. Banister was listed at 3.96 yards per route run against New Mexico State last Saturday.
Pivot Play – QB Brady Cook ($6,300) I almost debated Cook as the top option for Missouri on this slate. I’m hesitant to say “good” but Cook has been very productive from a fantasy aspect, scoring 20+ fantasy points in four straight contests. Completion percentage is over 60% in the span, he’s not turning the ball over, and has 247 rushing yards in that four-game span. The Razorbacks have been far worse against the run, but Missouri is not a team that can just bully-ball this defense and win the time of possession battle. Cook will have to make plays with his arm and legs on Friday. QB1s are averaging 22.7 FPPG against Arkansas this season. If we get around that mark from Cook at $6.3k, it’s worth it.
Best of the Rest – WR Dominic Lovett ($5,500) Since that 10-148-0 performance against South Carolina a few weeks back, Lovett has disappeared the last three weeks with five receptions on 11 targets. He was averaging 7.1 targets per game prior to that drop off. Unaware as to why this would be the case. And then the curious case of Luther Burden ($5,300) who does have three touchdowns in the last two games but has done his best work against bottom-tier opponents. Just 1.17 yards per route run, an aDOT of 9.0 and a 14% drop rate aren’t inspiring numbers.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State vs. North Carolina
Point-Spread: UNC -6.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UNC 31.5 – NC St 25
Weather: 55 degrees / 71% rain / 4 mph winds
NC State:
Top Play(s) – RB Michael Allen ($4,000) This is the time of the year for team like NC State to get extended looks at the talent freshman waiting in the wings. The 4-star running back split carries with Jordan Houston ($5,600) last week against Louisville but was on the field for 53% of the offensive snaps, compared to just 38% for Houston…the “starter.” Don’t have a ton of confidence that NC State is good enough offensively to take advantage of this lackluster UNC defense, but Allen is cheap enough to take a flier. Eight different running backs have scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Heels this season.
Fade – QB Situation. We have MJ Morris projected as the starter as of now, but I’m of the belief that he is out for the season due to injury. I think we’ll see a mixture of Ben Finley and Jack Chambers as we did a week ago. The results were not pretty, completing just 17-of-41 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown. Louisville is far better defensively than given credit for, but this is still a stay away unless we get confirmation Morris is the starter.
Bargain Bin – WR Julian Gray ($3,000) The 4-star freshman receiver was the highest graded offensive player on PFF for the Wolfpack last week vs. Louisville, finishing the game with 41 receiving yards on four targets, along with seven rushing yards. Played just 14 offensive snaps, but curious to see if that increases here in the finale.
Pivot Play – WR Darryl Jones ($5,000) Should Devin Carter not play, Darryl Jones looks to be the main beneficiary as he played the most offensive snaps of any NC State receiver last week, leading the team with nine targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Thayer Thomas ($6,400) Our interest in Thomas grows substantially if MJ Morris is the starter. That two-game stretch back in Week 9-10 was arguably the best of Thomas’ career with 18 receptions on 23 targets. Minimal production since then, and Thomas isn’t a big-play threat, so he needs a high volume of targets. Too expensive.
Injury Notes – Where to begin. Keep tabs on the QB situation and Devin Carter at receiver.
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Drake Maye ($9,000) My condolences to those who relied on Drake Maye the entire college fantasy season, only to make your semifinal CFF matches, and he puts up a dud against Georgia Tech. That’s college fantasy for ya. On paper, we still love Drake Maye this week as the second-highest projected player in all of CFB and probably should be a lock for this DFS slate. But then you start thinking about UNC looking ahead yet again as the Heels are already locked into the ACC title game. I probably want Maye for my cash lineups, but I might go in a cheaper direction for GPPs.
Fade – RB Elijah Green ($6,100) Realistically, everyone for UNC is in play with how the Heels typically light up the scoreboard. The matchup here for Green just isn’t the best, facing the best LB corps in the ACC. The Wolfpack are allowing just 12.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year and are 27th in rush play success rate.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Antoine Green ($6,700) Green is back at practice this week after suffering a concussion against Wake Forest. When healthy, Green has been exceptional this season, averaging 96.8 receiving yards per game, and doesn’t need a high number of targets to be effective with a 22.6 YPC average and aDOT of 20.9. NC State is 109th in defensive pass play explosiveness (prone to allowing big plays).
Best of the Rest – TE Bryson Nesbit ($5,400) Been a nice little late-season surge here for Nesbit with nine receptions on 13 targets in the last two games. That has coincided with Green’s injury, though, so I wonder how that dynamic changes with him back in the lineup. WR Josh Downs ($8,100) had a season-low three receptions on five targets last week and has been less than 100% seemingly the previous two games. I don’t think this is a game where we need to stack him with Maye.
Injury Notes – n/a
New Mexico vs. Colorado State
Point-Spread: CSU -7.5
O/U Total: 34.5
Implied Score: CSU 21 – NM 13.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
New Mexico:
We’re not interested in New Mexico on a two-game slate, much rather an 11-gamer. Maybe you give RB Nathaniel Jones ($4,400) a look against a Colorado State defense that gives up 18.3 FPPG to opposing running backs, but that’s the extent of our interest here.
Colorado State:
Top Play(s) – WR Tory Horton ($6,100) Horton is arguably the best fantasy receiver on this slate not named Josh Downs…and he isn’t priced like it. 36% team target share. Seven of the team’s 10 receiving touchdowns. I also like that Horton’s done good work this season against some of the better opponents faced. Scored a touchdown in the opener vs. Michigan. Torched a good San Jose State defense for 9-196-1 on 15 targets. New Mexico has been better than expected defensively, but they don’t have anyone to matchup with Horton one on one.
Fade – QB Clay Millen ($5,200) This offense just never materialized the way we thought in 2022. Much of which is due to the abysmal offensive line that led to Millen getting injured on multiple occasions this year, but the former 4-star recruit deserves some of the blame as well. Still hope for 2023, particularly if Horton returns, but we’re not betting on a QB for this slate that hasn’t scored more than 16 fantasy points all year long. New Mexico grades out well for a Mountain West secondary, allowing just 22 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 42nd nationally in pass play success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Justus Ross-Simmons ($4,300) Should Horton leave for the NFL after this year, I think the Rams have their replacement already lined up in 6-foot-3 freshman Justus Ross-Simmons who has played well here in the second half of the season. 40 or more receiving yards in each of the last five games with 23 of his 37 targets coming in that span.
Pivot Play – RB Avery Morrow ($5,500) Morrow will likely get overlooked on this slate, but there is a lot to like here. Game script will work in his favor with CSU being a touchdown favorite against an inept offensive team like New Mexico. Morrow has taken over the reins as the clear RB1 for the Rams in the second half of the year, averaging 18.4 carries per over the last seven games with five 100-yard performances. The Lobos only allow 16 FPPG to opposing RB1s for the season but are 107th in rush play success rate. If Morrow gets the 18 rushing attempts, he’s going over 100 yards most likely.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Williams ($3,000) Don’t know anything about the player other than he’s a 6-foot-5 starting slot receiver as a freshman. Significant uptick in playing time during the month of November and did score a touchdown last week vs. Air Force. Hasn’t had more than two targets in a game this season, though, so an extreme longshot.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -10.5
O/U Total: 37.5
Implied Score: Iowa 24 – Neb 13.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 5% rain / 5 mph winds
Nebraska:
So, Lance Leipold has signed a long-term extension to remain at Kansas. Who is the target now for the Nebraska head coaching job? Matt Rhule was the trending name but seems to be getting comfortable on TV lately and might sit out a year. Bronco Mendenhall entering the picture? More intrigue with this situation than the on-field play of the Nebraska offense, that much is certain.
Iowa:
Just two plays this week for Iowa – which is two more than we normally have actually. Best play of the slate might be 6-foot-6 sophomore TE Luke Lachey ($3,200) who stepped in for the injured Sam LaPorta and caught five passes for 77 yards on six targets. LaPorta did score double-digit fantasy points in 7-of-11 games this season, so if Lachey can step right in and replicate similar production, he’s a value at $3.2k. Warning – he’s going to be very popular on the slate. Hopefully this running back situation doesn’t get me into trouble Friday, because it’s going to be very difficult not having RB Kaleb Johnson ($3,300) in every single lineup? The issue is that this was a three-way split in a close contest vs. Minnesota last week. Why? The future should be now with the freshman running back who rushed for 200 yards just three weeks ago vs. Purdue. Johnson did see 22 attempts in back-to-back games so maybe this is a way for Ferentz to not overextend a freshman back? Nebraska is allowing 21.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, 11th most in the country, so I really want to figure out how Iowa will distribute carries on Friday.
UCLA vs. California
Point-Spread: UCLA -10.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: UCLA 35.5 – Cal 25
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB Zach Charbonnet ($8,400) Obviously, on paper, Charbonnet is the top play of the slate. Hell, California gave up 26 fantasy points last week to a dude on Stanford that just flipped over from safety two weeks ago. They don’t give a damn on defense anymore with this being a lost season. That said, this is essentially a lost season now for UCLA as well after last week’s loss to USC. No Pac-12 title game appearance despite having two of the best players in program history in Charbonnet and DTR. We’ve seen Chip Kelly hold out both players at different points this season already. Not saying it’s happening on Friday, but what is the motivation to play for either player?
Fade – TE Michael Ezeike ($4,700) I’m going to say last week’s three-touchdown performance was very much an outlier for Ezeike who did not live up to our preseason ranking coming into the year. Did see five targets vs. USC last week, but that was the highest total for Ezeike since Week 1. Opposing TE1s are averaging just 7.1 FPPG vs. California this season, and the Bears did limit Michael Mayer to just nine fantasy points.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Kazmeir Allen ($6,300) Zero interest in Allen here strictly as a wide receiver at this price, despite scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of the last five games. My interest is if we get word about Charbonnet being less than 100% or not playing at all – though this is Chip Kelly so I doubt we get any news regarding that. That said, in the game where Charbonnet did not play vs. Arizona State in Week 10, Allen ran the ball 11 times for 137 yards and a touchdown, in addition to 63 yards receiving on four targets. We could see heavy involvement from Allen on Friday.
Best of the Rest – QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($9,400) Same argument here as with Charbonnet. Don’t believe DTR is 100% healthy right now after taking some shots against USC last week and UCLA has nothing to play for. Outside of this being DTR’s last game suiting up for the Bruins, where is the motivation? This could all be conjecture too and DTR goes out with a bang against a defense that is allowing close to 30 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Cal struggles on the backend, ranking 122nd in pass play success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cal:
Top Play(s) – WR Michael J. Sturdivant ($5,300) Don’t really understand this pricing for Sturdivant who has arguably been Cal’s best offensive player this season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all but two games. Averaging 10.5 targets per game over the last six weeks. Opposing WR1s are averaging 17.8 FPPG against the Bruins this season.
Fade – QB Jack Plummer ($5,900) Maybe we get a shootout with an unmotivated UCLA defense and Plummer throws for 406 yards as he did against USC in Week 10. But the evidence points towards that not happening as Plummer has hit 20 fantasy points just once in the last seven games. UCLA is allowing 27.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Six Pac-12 quarterbacks have scored at least 23 fantasy points vs. the Bruins.
Bargain Bin – WR Mavin Anderson ($3,300) Anderson needs heavy target volume to be productive with an aDOT of just 8.5, and he got them last week against Stanford, putting up 7-49-0 on 10 targets. The sophomore receiver has had three or more receptions in 7-of-11 games played this season.
Pivot Play – WR Jeremiah Hunter ($5,500) Hunter likely sees the lowest ownership percentages of the three Cal receivers on Friday, but has been just as consistent as Sturdivant, just with lower target volume. Two 100-yard receiving performances in the last three games and has had five or more receptions in all but one game this year. An incredibly high floor.
Best of the Rest – RB Jadyn Ott ($6,200) Did Ott hit a freshman well or is the Cal offensive line the issue? Ott was ineffective for much of the game against the dead body of a defense that is Stanford. Cal’s offensive line ranks 101st in line yards and 114th in stuff rate so they’re largely to blame as well. Ott’s receiving ability keeps him in the conversation every week, now with 38 receptions on 46 targets. RB1s are averaging 18.6 FPPG this season against UCLA.
Injury Notes – n/a