Houston vs. UCF
Point-Spread: UCF -13.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: UCF 37.5 – Hou 24
Weather: 69 degrees / 14% rain / 9 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Donovan Smith ($8,200) Classic case of abysmal coverage in college football last week as the Houston beat writer, who has a history of misreporting or not reporting at all, stated that Smith could split reps with the backup as he was dealing with a nagging injury. Smith played 100% of the offensive snaps, finishing with 34 fantasy points. Wasn’t shy either about running the football with 81 yards on eight attempts. This is a solid UCF defense, giving up 16.7 FPPG to quarterbacks and 66th in pass D success rate.
Fade – RB Tony Mathis Jr. ($3,900) Five or fewer carries for the West Virginia transfer in each of the last six games. Houston is 113th in rush play percentage anyways, running the ball just 44% of the time, so minimal interest as it is in the Houston running game.
Bargain Bin – WR Dalton Carnes ($3,500) The new WR3 with Matthew Golden out for the season. Carnes played 37 of 62 offensive snaps last week against Oklahoma State, finishing with seven targets.
Pivot Play – RB Parker Jenkins ($4,700) Hopeful we get a preview of what’s to come in 2024 on Saturday with the true freshman running back. Jenkins had his second-best performance of the season last week against Oklahoma State with 56 yards on 12 rushing attempts. Jenkins averages just 8.5 carries per game, but teams have run all over UCF this season as the Knights are allowing the 4th most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Best of the Rest – WR Sam Brown ($6,600) or WR Joseph Manjack IV ($5,900) The WR duo played over 90% of the offensive snaps last week vs. Oklahoma State but combined for just six receptions on 12 targets. UCF allows just 33 FPPG to opposing receiver groups with five different wideouts scoring 15 or more fantasy points in their matchups with the Knights. Despite how much Houston throws the football, I’d limit it to just one WR in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCF:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($7,200) Arguably the top play on the slate given how consistent Harvey has been for the entirety of the season. 20 or more fantasy points scored in all but two games, with eight rushing touchdowns in the last three weeks. Houston allows the third most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Fade – RB Johnny Richardson ($3,900) We’ve seen 60-40 splits at times in the UCF backfield since Guz Malzahn took over as head coach. Not in 2023 with Harvey accounting for 46% of the team’s rushing attempts. Richardson’s also seen his carries diminish with just 13 attempts over the last three games.
Bargain Bin – WR Xavier Townsend ($4,700) Cheapest I would go among UCF players. The sophomore slot receiver is third on the team in targets (41), receptions (26) and routes run, despite missing two games this season. Slot receivers have dominated Houston this season with four different wideouts scoring 17 or more fantasy points against the Cougars.
Pivot Play – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($8,200) Not really a pivot play solo but would suggest that it is a viable strategy to stack both JPR and RJ Harvey in a lineup together with how atrocious Houston is versus the run and pass. The Cougars are 122nd in pass D success rate and 91st in rush D success rate. Perfectly suited for a dual threat like JRP to thrive.
Best of the Rest – WR Javon Baker ($6,000) or Kobe Hudson ($5,200) 13 of the team’s 21 receiving touchdowns belong to UCF’s two starting outside receivers. Baker has been the preferred option of the two of late with 100+ receiving yards in each of the last two games. Houston allows close to 40 FPPG to opposing wide receiver groups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -11.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: LSU 39 – A&M 27.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 9% rain / 9 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Malik Nabers ($9,600) We’ll touch on some of the numbers below for the A&M secondary and why it’s difficult to envision playing Jayden Daniels this week with his inflated salary. Nabers, though, is absolutely in play. A&M is allowing the 28th fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers but have given up three 30+ performances to SEC receivers. None of which are as good as Nabers.
Fade – WR Kyren Lacy ($5,600) Too high a price to pay here, in my opinion, for a player that has been held to zero points scored in three games this season. Fourth on the team in targets (35) and third in touchdowns (6), coming off his best performance of the season with 100+ yards and two scores last week. That came against the worst secondary in the country, though, in Georgia State. Not the case with the Aggies. WR3s facing A&M this season average just 4.8 FPPG.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($4,000) Third on the team in targets (38) and routes run but has not had the impact some expected in what is typically a tight end friendly passing scheme under OC Mike Denbrock. A&M allows just 3.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – QB Jayden Daniels ($11,000) Can you successfully construct a lineup while absorbing this salary? We know the upside, obviously, because Daniels has done it the last two games with 65+ fantasy points against both Florida and Georgia State. While I love the narrative of needing to continue these video game-like numbers to ensure his trip to New York City for the Heisman, I don’t think it makes a ton of sense. A&M is allowing the 7th fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks and the last few games have shown the defense is still playing hard in this lost season.
Best of the Rest – WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($8,000) Probably not realistic to stack both Nabers and Thomas in the same lineup together given the cost, but a top-heavy target share between the two at 55% with 26 of the team’s 37 receiving touchdowns. RB situation feels like a fade this week with RB Logan Diggs ($5,600) returning from injury after sitting out the last two games. Expect to see Josh Williams potentially get the start as a senior and team captain. A&M allows the 11th fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaylen Henderson ($6,400) Color me surprised that a former backup at Fresno State is finding success in the SEC, but that’s the case for Henderson who has now scored 52 combined fantasy points in the last two games. LSU should steamroll in this matchup, but the defense is still putrid. The Tigers are allowing the 17th most fantasy points in the country to receivers.
Fade – WR Evan Stewart ($5,900) Stewart doesn’t have the injury tag but is rumored to not be healthy and even more rumors swirling that the former 5-star receiver will be entering the transfer portal at the conclusion of the season. Ran a season-low 13 routes last week against Abilene Christian with one reception. In a meaningless game, would it surprise anyone if Stewart preserves his own health for his future home in 2024?
Bargain Bin – WR Noah Thomas ($4,300) Was very intrigued by the 6-foot-6 Thomas at the beginning of the season, posting four touchdowns in the first two games, but an ankle injury limited his production in the following three matchups. 14 catches in the last five games, so he’s not a high-volume option, but did run the most routes of any wide receiver against Abilene Christian last week. He’d get the starting nod if Stewart were to sit or be limited. WR Moose Muhammad ($4,000) feels like another transfer possibility this offseason as his playing time and production have declined across the board. But with Stewart limited/out, Muhammad had his best performance of the season with 104 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. We know he’s talented.
Pivot Play – WR Ainias Smith ($5,500) The most consistent fantasy producer for A&M in 2023, leading the team with 45 receptions on 67 targets. Slot receivers have had a ton of success against this LSU secondary in 2023, with Luther Burden, Jordan Watkins and Eugene Wilson all scoring 19 or more fantasy points against the Tigers.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Tough to get a read on this situation. Not surprising in the slightest that A&M got its 5-star freshman involved against an FCS opponent last week with Rueben Owens garnering 18 carries for 106 yards and a TD. Do we think that level of volume is sustainable? Evidence would point towards no as A&M has split up the carries evenly between Owens and Amari Daniels in the previous three games. Le’Veon Moss saw just one snap in Week 12 in his return from injury and would add another layer to this messy backfield split. Landing on the correct RB here could pay off as LSU allows 19 FPPG to RB1s this season, but the Aggies are likely to be in a trailing position so fading the entire group might be the best course of action.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -3.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: UM 25 – OSU 21.5
Weather: 32 degrees / 6% rain / 7 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($9,000) Michigan’s secondary stacks up with Penn State when looking from a statistical lense, and MHJ was targeted 15 times in that matchup with the Nittany Lions, resulting in 162 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches. Should see low ownership because of his pricing and the matchup, as the Wolverines give up the fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers.
Fade – RB Chip Trayanum ($4,900) 35 or fewer rush yards in each of the last six games for Trayanum who likely won’t see more than 5-7 carries on Saturday as long as TreVeyon Henderson remains healthy.
Bargain Bin – TE Cade Stover ($4,500) After being shut out against Wisconsin in Week 9, Stover rebounded with a pair of strong performances against Michigan State and Minnesota with a pair of touchdowns on a combined 12 targets. Michigan is giving up just 3.8 FPPG to tight ends this season, as no player at the position has hit double-digit fantasy points against the Wolverines.
Pivot Play – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($7,300) As we alluded to above, I think 20+ carries for Henderson (assuming he remains healthy) is a near lock for Saturday. And the workload Henderson received against Wisconsin and Rutgers when he returned from injury will mirror what we see this weekend. Does that translate into fantasy production? Tough to say with Michigan allowing the fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs. But I suspect the volume will be there. Henderson’s also been more of a factor in the passing game the last month with 13 of his 16 receptions coming in the last four games.
Best of the Rest – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,300) Playing time increased with each passing week since returning from injury, ramping up the junior receiver’s reps in preparation for this matchup. Saw eight targets last week against Minnesota. While Egbuka is a future first-round NFL Draft Pick, he’ll likely be matched up with Michigan’s defensive MVP this season in Mike Sainristil who picked off Taulia Tagovailoa twice last week. Given the pricing, I would say QB Kyle McCord ($8,200) is the better of the two DFS options in this game, but don’t trust him against a Michigan defense that gives up the fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,400) I’d suspect a highly-motivated Corum on Saturday in his final showing at the Big House, and after the fact he missed last year’s contest with a knee injury. Like the Penn State game, I think Michigan leans on the run game Saturday (with a few tricks up their sleeve of course). The one concern is that the Ohio State is equally as good defensively as Penn State, with a coaching staff that is much smarter.
Fade – QB J.J. McCarthy ($8,900) That’s my quarterback, but this is not the matchup to play him. Michigan has protection concerns on the offensive line right now at the tackle position. McCarthy has an ankle injury that has limited his mobility, and some rumors that he might’ve suffered another injury post-Penn State matchup. Icing on the cake is that Ohio State allows the second fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Colston Loveland ($4,700) Ohio State is 10th in fewest fantasy points allowed this season, but still remember that contest against Notre Dame earlier in the year where Mitchell Evans was a difference maker with 75 yards on seven targets. The 6-foot-5 sophomore is second on the team in targets (44), receptions (32) and touchdowns (4).
Pivot Play – WR Cornelius Johnson ($4,500) Down year for the senior receiver has he record just one receiving touchdown and fewer receptions in 2023 than he had in each of the last two seasons. 4-1 drop to touchdown ratio as a senior is brutal. That said, the Game provides a shot at redemption for a year’s worth of struggles, and Johnson was one of the stars last year with 160 yards and two scores on four catches. For as bad as the numbers look on paper, Johnson still leads the Wolverines in routes run this season.
Best of the Rest – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,000) X-factors win games like this, and there is no bigger potential X-factor on the Wolverines roster than Edwards because of his versatility as a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield. The big-game performances from the junior receiver can’t be ignored either, after rushing for 50+ yards and a touchdown against Penn State two weeks ago. WR Roman Wilson ($6,300) is expected to play after sitting most of last week’s matchup with Maryland due to a head injury. Team leader with 10 of Michigan’s 20 receiving touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Navy vs. SMU
Point-Spread: SMU -19.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: SMU 32.5 – Navy 13
Weather: 52 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
Navy:
46 rushing attempts for Navy last week against East Carolina. 38 of those carries went to QB Xavier Arline ($5,500) and FB Alex Tecza ($5,300). The intrigue here is Arline at quarterback with 67 rushing attempts in the last three games since taking over the starting job. For as much as we think of SMU as a skilled offensive team, the Mustangs’ defense has been the story in conference play, ranking 14th in pass D success rate and 10th in rush D success rate. Would have never predicted that SMU would be 14th nationally in total defense. That probably keeps us off of Tecza, whose rushing attempts have been sporadic over the last five games, but Navy’s offensive system is built around the quarterback running the football in the triple option. I’ll be tempted to have Arline in a few GPP lineups.
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Johnson ($4,800) Back-to-back 100-yard performances for the former Texas A&M transfer, rushing for 115 yards and a score against Memphis. More importantly, that’s now consecutive games with at least 20 carries as he’s taken over the backfield from Jaylan Knighton. This is a really good play, but I also wouldn’t go overboard as the Navy defense is really good against the run, surprisingly. 15th in the country in rush D success rate, giving up just 13 FPPG to running backs.
Fade – WR Jake Bailey ($4,000) Bailey logged just 17 snaps in the win over Memphis last week as he was dealing with a minor injury. HC Rhett Lashlee said this week that he expects Bailey to play, but rostering SMU receivers is a dangerous game as it is, let alone one coming off an injury. No Mustang pass-catcher has more than 14% target share on the season.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan Hudson ($4,200) The TCU transfer is second on the team with six receiving touchdowns, four of which have come in the last five games. Eight receivers have scored 15 or more fantasy points against Navy this season, seven of which play on the boundary like Hudson does. Bigger, stronger wideouts tend to give this Navy secondary the most fits. Hudson fits the profile.
Pivot Play – QB Preston Stone ($8,400) Stone is closer to a fade for me this week, at least in DFS, as there are higher-projected QBs at a lower cost. Two concerns for me. (1) This has actually become a run-centric offense as Stone is averaging just 24 attempts per game over the last month. (2) Navy triple-option can bleed clock and limit possessions. Five quarterbacks have scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Midshipmen this season and are 92nd in pass D success rate. Just not sure the upside is there if both teams are running effectively.
Best of the Rest – TE RJ Maryland ($5,000) Team leader in targets (45) and receiving touchdowns (7) as the SMU’s most talented playmaker on offense. Navy gave up a combined 34 fantasy points to Temple tight ends earlier in the year. WR Key’Shawn Smith ($3,100) is really cheap for a starting SMU receiver, but the Miami transfer has made minimal impact this season with 19 receptions on 33 targets. Smith is third on the team in routes run, though, in 2023.
Injury Notes – Jaylan Knighton and Jake Bailey are expected to play, but a surprise absence by either one could boost the stock of either RB Camar Wheaton ($3,900) or Roderick Daniels ($4,100).
Colorado vs. Utah
Point-Spread: Utah -21.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Utah 37 – Col 15.5
Weather: 32 degrees / 7% rain / 7 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Travis Hunter ($6,400) Hunter has been as advertised and the team’s best wide receiver since coming back from injury, with 70 or more receiving yards in four of the last five games and four touchdowns in that span. Shedeur Sanders plays, and Hunter is an option. More on that situation below…
Fade – QBs. Shedeur Sanders is day-to-day after leaving the contest early last week against Washington State. For the criticism Colorado and Sanders receives, his toughness can’t be questioned after the beating he’s taken all year. Ryan Staub would get the nod should Sanders not be available, and he’s given no indication in brief appearances that he’s a P5 caliber quarterback. I’d say away entirely.
Bargain Bin – RB Sy’Veon Wilkerson ($3,900) Do I expect Colorado to be able to run on Utah? Probably not. The Utes only allow 14 FPPG to opposing running backs, but the reputation is better than the actual numbers. Utah is 57th in rush D success rate and just lost their best defensive linemen for the season to injury. Wilkerson has been Colorado’s best running back the last two games with two rushing touchdowns and a season-high 49 rush yards vs. Washington State last week.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Weaver ($7,100) Only an option if Shedeur Sanders plays at this pricing. A team-high 100 targets and most routes run on the team, but like many of the Colorado players, his numbers have dipped since the opening month of the season. Just seven targets per game in the month of November; was averaging 12 targets per in September.
Best of the Rest – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($5,900) Team leader in touchdowns (6) and second in both targets (78) and receptions (56). Five different Pac-12 wide receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points against Utah this season, so there’s a chance someone find success in this matchup.
Injury Notes – QB situation in flux. Greatly impacts the viability of the WRs. Stay tuned.
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,300) Should the rumors below be truthful, I only see one path to success offensively for the Utes and that’s to run the ball 50+ times with their stable of running backs. Volume decline the last few weeks from Jackson, but that includes two games in which Utah was trailing by multiple touchdowns, and the Arizona State matchup where he injured his ankle…again. Should get fed with Utah as a 21.5-point favorite against a Colorado run defense that is 105th in success rate.
Fade – QB. We don’t know who will start on Saturday. Bryson Barnes apparently has the flu. Nate Johnson, the one-time starter, is rumored to have left the team. The Utes might be down to a fifth-string walk-on who looks like he has a man-bun in the back of his head.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaylon Glover ($3,900) Glover factors in if the QB situation plays out as stated above with a fifth stringer under center. More was expected out of Glover this season, a former 4-star prospect who was highly rated by many in the college fantasy community. His volume has not been consistent, which is the risk with this play, but we’d expect a very run-heavy approach on Saturday. If Bryson Barnes is in, TE Landen King ($3,300) immediately becomes Utah’s best bargain option with 15 of his 19 targets coming in the last three games. Colorado allows the 11th most fantasy points in the country to tight ends.
Pivot Play – RB Sione Vaki ($5,200) He can run, he can catch, he can tackle. Can Vaki play quarterback? That duty would likely go to JQJ if Utah decided to go the wildcat route instead of a walk-on at QB. And we have clear evidence already of Utah doing that this season as the Utes put Jackson and Vaki in the same backfield at multiple points during the year. Similar argument to Glover above that we expect a run-heavy gameplan from the Utes, regardless, against Colorado, which should feature Vaki.
Best of the Rest – WR Devaughn Vele ($5,000) Lost in the blowout by Arizona was the performance of Vele who hit 100 yards receiving for the second time in as many games, now with 30 targets over the last three weeks. A perfect matchup to end the season against a Colorado defense allowing the most fantasy points in the country to wide receivers.
Injury Notes – Stay tuned to the QB situation. Devaughn Vele and the Utah pass-catchers get a substantial increase should Bryson Barnes get the starting nod.
BYU vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OSU -16.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: OSU 36.5 – BYU 20
Weather: 46 degrees / 16% rain / 10 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB Aidan Robbins ($4,100) This was the Aidan Robbins some people expected coming into the season, rushing for 181 yards on 22 carries against a good Oklahoma front. The Oklahoma State run defense is average across the board, and Robbins is dirt cheap.
Fade – RB LJ Martin ($4,900) Easy one. Simply no reason that Martin should be priced higher than Aidan Robbins at this point. 59-9 rushing attempt advantage in favor of Robbins over the last five games.
Bargain Bin – WR Kody Epps ($4,800) Last season’s WR1 for BYU is starting to find his footing since coming back from injury with five or more targets in four of the last five games, including a season-high nine targets vs. Oklahoma last week. We stated this in previous DFS writeups – slot receivers have dominated Oklahoma State this season. Four of the top five scoring receivers that have faced OSU all played in the slot.
Pivot Play – QB Jake Retzlaff ($5,900) I believe Kedon Slovis might be healthy enough to play this weekend, but there’s no way BYU can turn back to him at this point, right? Retzlaff showed some promise last week in the loss to Oklahoma, throwing for 173 yards and two touchdowns. His running ability is also intriguing, now with 182 yards on 19 attempts through three games. Oklahoma State gives up the 27th most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – TE Issac Rex ($3,800) A pair of touchdowns in the last two games for Rex who is second on the team in targets (55), receptions (31) and first in routes run. Oklahoma State allows 7.2 FPPG to tight ends. WR Darius Lassiter ($4,900) did not start last week and ran just 13 routes vs. Oklahoma in his return from injury – hadn’t played since Week 9. I would look towards Epps or WR Chase Roberts ($5,300) if looking to roster a BYU receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($9,000) We got the Ollie Gordon performance we deserved in Week 11 last Saturday after rushing for 164 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries in the win over Houston. Gordon faced two of the worst rush defenses in the country the last two weeks. BYU is slightly better than Houston and UCF, ranking 57th in rush D success rate and allowing 16.9 FPPG to RB1s. Gordon is still a viable option, but not the slam dunk he was a week ago.
Fade – WR Jaden Bray ($4,400) Bray made his return from injury last Saturday and did catch a touchdown. That’s the good. The bad news is that he had just one target on seven routes run. Was essentially a non-factor from a playing time perspective.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing any Oklahoma State player below $5k.
Pivot Play – QB Alan Bowman ($7,100) BYU allows just 18 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but the stats paint a different picture. The Cougars are 124th in Pro Football Focus coverage grades and 107th in pass D success rate. That, combined with a 21-point projection, puts Bowman as a potential option (not a priority, though).
Best of the Rest – WRs There’s a slight wrinkle now with Jaden Bray back in the fold, but the top trio of Rashod Owens, Brennan Presley and Leon Johnson III still all played over 76% of the offensive snaps against Houston. Presley was the obvious story with 15 receptions on 19 targets, now with 37 total targets in the last three games. BYU allows the 35th most fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers. Two highest scoring receivers against BYU were Jaylin Noel (Iowa State) and John Paul Richardson (TCU), both of whom play in the slot just like Presley.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona vs. Arizona State
Point-Spread: UA -10.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: UA 30 – ASU 19.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 5% rain / 7 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonah Coleman ($5,300) Coleman has taken over the Arizona backfield ahead of RB Michael Wiley ($4,500), scoring a combined 36 fantasy points in the last two weeks, including 90 yards and a score against a very good Utah front last week. Don’t foresee 20+ carries for Coleman as they’ll still get Wiley involved some but would be shocked if his final stat line doesn’t reflect something similar to what he did against Colorado two weeks ago. Surprisingly, ASU allows just 12.6 FPPG to running backs but are 111th in rush D success rate. I don’t hate a pivot and using Wiley either because of his usage in the passing game as we saw against Utah with 5-68-2 on five targets.
Fade – n/a. All regular Arizona contributors are in play against a poor Arizona State defense.
Bargain Bin – WR Montana Lemonious-Craig ($3,600) Wasn’t the season we expected from MLC after transferring in from Colorado, as the WR3 spot for Arizona last week was very productive even with Dorian Singer and Jacob Cowing occupying the target share. A slight corner turned the last three weeks with two touchdowns in that span against some pretty good defenses in Utah and UCLA.
Pivot Play – QB Noah Fifita ($7,400) Fifita is a terrific passer, but gets dinged in DFS because he’s a non-runner, as evidenced by scoring just 34 fantasy points in the last two weeks. We need at least three touchdowns to hit value with his salary bump. Good news is that Arizona State won’t do much to prevent Fifita from hitting that mark, giving up the 15th most fantasy points in college football to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Tet McMillan ($7,000) The sophomore receiver has been dominant the last month or so with 80 or more yards in each of the last four games and a touchdown in each contest. Arizona State allows the seventh most fantasy points to receivers in the country. Would not dismiss his running mate either in WR Jacob Cowing ($6,700) who has found the end-zone in seven of 11 games played this season. The most impressive feat is that Cowing hit 100 targets for the third straight year. I wouldn’t rule out stacking both he and McMillan together in a lineup because of how much Arizona throws the football.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cameron Skattebo ($5,700) (1) Skattebo is the team’s leading rusher with 678 yards on the ground, having scored a rushing touchdown in eight of the 11 games played this season. (2) Skattebo is third on the team in receiving yards (286) with 24 receptions on 33 targets. (3) Skattebo is one of the most versatile offensive players in the country. Not only running and receiving, but the senior running back has also thrown nine passes in the last two games as the Sun Devils have been featuring him in the wildcat with the quarterback position in a state of flux. It won’t help his fantasy production, but just a cool nugget that Skattebo also has eight punts this season.
Fade – QB. Trenton Bourguet has failed to score more than 10 fantasy points in four of the last five games, and there is an outside chance that Jaden Rashada gets snaps on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – WR Troy Omerie ($3,600) Heck of a turnaround for Omerie in the last several weeks, gone from an obscure injury-prone former 4-star recruit to one of Arizona State’s most consistent weapons at receiver. Playing over 80% of offensive snaps the last three weeks with 15 targets combined against UCLA and Oregon. Arizona State can’t challenge down the field with Trenton Bourguet at QB, so the yardage totals are low, but Omerie is getting plenty of targets.
Pivot Play – WR Elijhah Badger ($5,700) Volume isn’t a problem here. 30 targets in the last two weeks against two very good defenses. Do we trust the quarterback to effectively get Badger the football is the dilemma. Of the two defensive components, Arizona is weaker on the backend, ranking 73rd in pass D success rate and 16.7 FPPG to WR1s.
Best of the Rest – TE Jalin Conyers ($3,900) Six targets last week for Conyers who has been one of the more disappointing fantasy performers in 2023, though not all his fault with the quarterback conundrum. Normally we’d avoid entirely here, but Conyers now has six passing attempts in the last two weeks. That adds some intrigue to having him in our lineups.
Injury Notes – If Jaden Rashada gets the start, I like the Arizona State pass-catchers a touch more.
Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: Tenn -25.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Tenn 41 – Vand 15.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 4% rain / 6 mph winds
Vanderbilt:
Full-team fade. The 47-6 beatdown taken by South Carolina in Week 11 shows me a team that has quit. WR Will Sheppard ($5,600) is the only player deserving of some consideration with a team-high 45 receptions and eight touchdowns on 81 targets. Was limited to just one target on 19 passing routes (second lowest in 2023) vs. the Gamecocks.
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Joe Milton ($7,500) We haven’t rostered Milton since September it feels like, but he’s absolutely in play against a Vanderbilt defense that has been roasted by quarterbacks in the second half of the season. The Dores have allowed over 250 yards passing in five of the last six games and are giving up the 25th most fantasy points to quarterbacks in the country. Vanderbilt is 124th in pass D success rate.
Fade – n/a. All regular contributors are in play against a defeated Vanderbilt defense.
Bargain Bin – RB Jabari Small ($3,100) More and more I look at this I think Small is one of my top plays on the slate given his pricing. Shared snaps with RB Jaylen Wright ($5,200) last week in the blowout loss to Georgia. When asked about if Wright needs more carries, HC Josh Heupel stated that they’re more than willing to keep Wright fresh and that he loves his depth at the position with Small and Dylan Sampson. Don’t forget about the Senior Day narrative with this being Small’s final game in a Vols uniform. They’ll find a way to get him in the end-zone.
Pivot Play – WR Ramel Keyton ($4,300) Keyton was shut out last week on one target against Georgia, but still leads the team in touchdowns (4) and routes run. Because of injuries to Bru McCoy and Dont’e Thornton, Keyton is essentially on the field the entire game. Vanderbilt allows the third most fantasy points to wide receivers in the country, so have no issue stacking the Tennessee passing game.
Best of the Rest – WR Squirrel White ($5,700) For all the reasons stated above for Keyton, White is one of the better plays on the slate, and at a reasonable price. Four slot receivers have scored 21 or more fantasy points this season against Vandy. Heavily favor targeting White and Keyton among the Tennessee wideouts, but WR3 Chas Nimrod ($3,500) deserves some consideration after being targeted seven times against Georgia last week. There was some confusion as to who that third option would be between Nimrod and fellow freshman Kaleb Webb, but Nimrod ran almost double the number of routes last week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: Bama -14.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Bama 31.5 – Aub 17
Weather: 59 degrees / 7% rain / 8 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($9,500) Last two SEC performances for Milroe – 51 fantasy points against LSU, followed by 41 fantasy points against Kentucky. Auburn is allowing just 16.7 FPPG to quarterbacks but have struggled against dual threats – Jayden Daniels (31 fpts), Jaxson Dart (28 fpts), and just last week against Diego Pavia (24 fpts). Still an outside shot at Milroe in the Heisman conversation and would up those chances with his performances in the Iron Bowl followed by the SEC title game.
Fade – TE Amari NiBlack ($3,500) Two touchdowns in the last four games for the freshman tight end, but the concern is playing time. NiBlack was splitting reps with former Maryland transfer CJ Dippre almost 50-50 in the first two months, but that’s flipped over the last few weeks. Dippre has a 2-1 advantage in the last two SEC games in offensive snaps played.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik Benson ($3,900) The former JUCO transfer was expected to be Alabama’s WR1 by some in 2023. That obviously hasn’t transpired, but was a corner turned against Chattanooga last week? Three receptions and a touchdown on three targets as Alabama searches for a reliable third option in the passing game. Could be an X-factor with his big-play ability.
Pivot Play – RB Jase McClellan ($6,400) McClellan should be well-rested for the Iron Bowl with just 35 rushing attempts over the last three games. The Tigers allow just 12.6 FPPG to opposing running backs this season, but the run defense is the weaker of the two defensive components, ranking 80th in rush D success rate. McClellan found the end-zone in each of Alabama’s last two competitive matchups, including 27 rushing attempts vs. Tennessee in Week 8. If Auburn sets out to spy Milroe, McClellan should have opportunities on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WRs. 42% target share and nine of the 19 receiving touchdowns belong to Isaiah Bond and Jermaine Burton, so they’re likely the only two options we have genuine interest in with the Alabama passing game. Auburn’s secondary is the team’s strength, though, ranked 15th in pass D success rate and allowing the 27th fewest fantasy points in the country to receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn:
We have to cut some corners here in getting this DFS writeup posted, and Auburn is as good a candidate there is on the slate to fully fade. Rivalry games bring out some wonky results, so maybe someone from the Tigers winds up in the winning GPP lineup. I doubt it. Payton Thorne against this Tide defense does not sound like a fun time. Alabama also allows the 21st fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs so Jarquez Hunter is not in contention either. I doubt that Auburn passes for more than 100 yards on Saturday, so no interest in the receivers either.
Washington State vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UW -16.5
O/U Total: 67.5
Implied Score: UW 42 – WSU 25.5
Weather: 43 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – WR Lincoln Victor ($6,800) Relatively quiet week for Victor against Colorado with just five receptions on seven targets. That shouldn’t erase what the senior slot receiver accomplished over the previous four games heading into that matchup with a combined 60 targets. Wazzu will likely be in a trailing position, and 40+ passing attempts from the Cougars should be a lock. Prioritize on DK over FD with the scoring settings.
Fade – n/a. Top five primary contributors in Ward, Watson and the trio of receivers are all potential options.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody under $4.4k.
Pivot Play – RB Nakia Watson ($4,400) Longest of longshots here considering Watson’s had a down year and Washington State is 131st nationally in rush play percentage. But the former Wisconsin transfer looked healthy last week, and Washington’s weakness on defense is defending the run. The Huskies allow 17 FPPG to RB1s and are 128th in rush D success rate. Watson is also fifth on the team with 27 targets and three receiving touchdowns.
Best of the Rest – QB Cameron Ward ($8,800) Third in the country in pass play percentage as a double-digit underdog? Ward will be chucking on Saturday. How effective will he be? Washington’s secondary is technically the strength of the defense, allowing 19 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but are just 61st in pass D success rate. The Huskies are also 130th in pass attempts against them. So if you’re fading Ward here, I would absolutely look to the Wazzu receivers because the volume will be there. And we have a concentrated target share at the top where Victor, WR Kyle Williams ($6,400) and WR Josh Kelly ($6,300) account for 61% of the targets and 66% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Kelly has been on a heater of late with 130 receiving yards in each of the last two games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Rome Odunze ($8,500) Liking the Odunze and Michael Penix stacks this weekend as it’ll be low-owned in GPPs due to cost. Wazzu has done an admirable job against wide receivers this season with just two wideouts scoring more than 20 fantasy points against this secondary. Odunze is obviously talented enough that he’s matchup-proof, as displayed last week against Oregon State. Team leader in every receiving category.
Fade – RB Dillon Johnson ($7,000) Sort of a cop-out answer here as Johnson has the questionable tag on DraftKings, but it does sound as though the Washington RB1 will play Saturday. That begs the question of how healthy is Johnson? Outside of the USC performance, Johnson hasn’t shown that he’s capable of breaking a slate against a defense with a pulse. I think this is a safe fade that you just live the results if he rumbles for 20 or so fantasy points in a limited role.
Bargain Bin – RB Will Nixon ($3,400) Should Johnson sit or be limited, Will Nixon should be the next man up in the backfield. But I wouldn’t anticipate him seeing a Dillon Johnson-like workload so I’m not opposed to giving talented freshman Tybo Rogers ($3,100) a look either. Washington State allows the 17th most fantasy points in the country to running backs.
Pivot Play – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($10,400) Always difficult to spend up for a QB north of $10k in salary. But it worked out for us last week with Bo Nix and this is essentially the same situation. Injured starting running back. Perfect weather conditions. Heisman on the line. I think the Huskies air it out on Saturday. Washington State’s strength on defense is the secondary, ranked 41st in pass D success rate and allowing just 16 FPPG to quarterbacks. But do those numbers apply when facing this Huskies’ passing attack?
Best of the Rest – WR Jalen McMillan ($6,600) The coaching staff ramped up McMillan’s playing time last week with 32 offensive snaps, splitting time in the slot with Germie Bernard. Neither player was effective with zero receptions on three targets, but we know what McMillan is capable of at any moment. After hitting 100-receiving yards in five of six games between Week’s 3-9, WR Ja’Lynn Polk’s ($7,900) numbers have declined with just 107 receiving yards in the last three games. Playing time remains the same, just ineffective last week in the rain with a goose egg on six targets. One Washington beat writer predicted multiple Washington receivers with 100+ receiving yards Saturday, fwiw.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on Johnson’s status which could open up opportunities for rostering one of the backup RBs.
Pittsburgh vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Duke -6.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: Duke 24.5 – Pitt 18
Weather: 48 degrees / 15% rain / 12 mph winds
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – RB Rodney Hammond ($4,500) Duke’s run defense is trending downward of late, allowing over four yards a carry in four of the last five games. The Blue Devils are 92nd in rush D success rate and giving up 17 FPPG to RB1s. Meanwhile, we’re seeing the Rodney Hammond we thought we’d get at the onset of the year, coming off a season-high 145 yards and a touchdown against Boston College last week.
Fade – QB Nate Yarnell ($5,800) Yarnell did some good things last week, throwing for 207 yards with a pair of touchdowns, while showing some mobility on the ground with 24 yards on five attempts. Don’t get that confused though, he’s not an agile runner. 16-point projection on a Main Slate is an easy fade.
Bargain Bin – WR Konata Mumpfield ($4,500) Team leader in targets and routes run gets a boost with Nate Yarnell under center. Duke allows the 25th fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers.
Pivot Play – WR Bub Means ($4,800) 70 or more receiving yards for Means in six of the last seven games. If there is a slate-breaker on the Pitt side, Means would be the choice with three games of 10 or more targets, averaging over 18 yards per catch.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Hammond, Means and Mumpfield are the only players of interest on the Pitt side.
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Moore ($5,700) With Duke showing some life in the passing game despite not having Riley Leonard under center, Jordan Moore becomes the top option for the Blue Devils offense, now with double-digit targets in three of the last four games and four touchdowns in that span. That’s the optimistic look. The downside is Pittsburgh allows the 8th fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers, which exemplifies our realistic interest in anyone on the Duke side of things.
Fade – QB Grayson Loftis ($6,600) Same argument here with Yarnell above. Duke looks to be in good shape next season with Loftis giving the Duke passing game life in the last two weeks with five passing TDs against North Carolina and Virginia. Non-runners in a low volume passing attack just aren’t that attractive in DFS. 16-point projection against a Pitt defense that allows just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Samir Hagans ($4,300) Top-heavy target share for the Blue Devils with the top three receivers combining for 76% of the team’s targets. Hagans is third in all receiving categories but is on the field just as much as both Jordan Moore and Jalon Calhoun. Low floor, low ceiling play with zero receiving yards in three of the last five games but was targeted 11 times against UVA last week.
Pivot Play – RB Jordan Waters ($6,100) I’d imagine Waters has very low ownership given his recent performance with just 37 rushing yards on 12 attempts, and the three-headed backfield with RB Jaquez Moore ($4,800) and Jaylen Coleman. I’m also tentative to roster running backs who’ve fumbled in the previous week as Waters did vs. UVA. This is not the Pitt defense of old, though, allowing over 20 FPPG to RB1s, and Waters has found the end-zone in all but three games this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Jalon Calhoun ($5,500) 29 targets in the last four games, but a very low-ceiling candidate. 1.89 yards per route run, 9.4 aDOT and a 17% drop rate are not appealing stats when looking at potential WR options in DFS.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -6.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UL 28.5 – UK 22
Weather: 42 degrees / 3% rain / 10 mph winds
Kentucky:
We’ve written about Kentucky enough this season that I feel like our readers know the expectations for this offense. RB Ray Davis ($7,600) is 13 yards shy of his second straight 1,000-yard rushing season which he’ll undoubtedly get. Louisville’s defense is equally stout against the run and pass but are limiting opposing RB1s to just 12.7 FPPG this season. Running backs facing Louisville, though, are averaging 4.9 fantasy points more than their seasonal average. No chance we’re playing QB Devin Leary ($6,200) against a defense that is 6th in pass D success rate and giving up just 15 FPPG to quarterbacks. Weekly game of Kentucky WR roulette trying to guess who the preferred option in the given week is between Tayvion Robinson ($4,700) is, Dane Key ($5,200) and Barion Brown ($4,800). Brown was the primary option against South Carolina with a touchdown on 10 targets. Three of the highest scoring wide receivers to face Louisville this season have been slot receivers, which favors Robinson.
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Isaac Guerendo ($6,300) Can we safely say this is now a timeshare at running back between Guerendo and RB Jawhar Jordan ($7,100) Injuries can be attributed to that, but the former Wisconsin transfer has shown more than enough the last few games that he cannot be taken off the field. 90 or more yards in each of the last three games with five rushing scores in that span. Louisville’s run game has been so good that we have to consider either RB no matter the opponent, but Kentucky’s strength is in the trenches. 24th in EPA per run play defensively and giving up just 12.3 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – WR Jamari Thrash ($7,100) This one hurts with how good Thrash was to start the season, but he’s simply not been effective since injuring his wrist. Led Louisville in routes run last week against Miami but converted on just one of six targets with two drops. Tough to rationalize at this price.
Bargain Bin – TE Nate Kurisky ($3,300) Am I playing a tight end on a Main Slate that has posted zero receiving yards in half of the games played this season? No. But Kurisky did have a career day against Miami with 5-50-1 on six targets, and HC Jeff Brohm has a long-standing history of incorporating the tight end in the passing game. Kentucky is allowing the 6th most fantasy points in the country to tight ends this year. TE Joey Gatewood ($3,400) also factors into the mix with four catches and a TD in the last two games.
Pivot Play – QB Jack Plummer ($8,500) Very difficult to promote Plummer at this pricing given he’s surpassed 20 fantasy points just three times in 2023 as Louisville has leaned on its devastating running game throughout the year. Kentucky is also allowing just 17.3 FPPG to quarterbacks which is coincidentally Plummer’s seasonal average. With that said, the Kentucky secondary is the weak link of the defense, ranking 127th in pass D success rate. If the Wildcats stuff the box, Plummer should find some level of success.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Bell ($4,900) Would like to see Bell get more opportunities as he’s averaging 15.9 YPC and a 71.9% catch rate in 2023. Four or more receptions in three of the last five games, and quite frankly, has been more effective than Jamari Thrash. For as bad as the Kentucky secondary has been, they don’t allow a ton of fantasy points to wide receivers – 34th fewest in the country.
Injury Notes – n/a
