Ole Miss vs. Florida
Point-Spread: Miss -10.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Miss 33 – UF 22.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,100) Dart is expected to have his full complement of receivers available on Saturday with Tre Harris, Antwane Wells and Jordan Watkins all probable as of Wednesday. Florida’s secondary is the strength of the defensive unit, ranked 46th in pass D success rate and giving up just 18 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. But we’re intrigued by Dart with all available receivers at his disposal and no clear cut RB1 in the backfield.
Fade – RB Dominique Thomas ($4,400) For starters, Thomas should not be priced ahead of RB Ulysses Bentley ($4,200). While Florida will give up chunks on the ground, we’re very tentative about rostering anyone from this group. Bentley feels like the top choice, but Matt Jones is also back this week and was ahead of Bentley on the depth chart prior to his injury. Not to mention that Logan Diggs is back practicing and could be another variable the makes this situation all the more messy.
Bargain Bin – TE Dae’Quan Wright ($3,800) Wright has been the better receiving option of late between he and Caden Prieskorn, with 14 of his 19 receptions this season coming in the last three games. Florida is giving up 11.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – WR Tre Harris ($9,300) This is really for GPP only, but we’ll side with a healthy Harris as the top option for Ole Miss who was ranked in the top three among fantasy wide receivers prior to his injury.
Best of the Rest – WR Cayden Lee ($5,400) or WR Jordan Watkins ($5,700) Both are playable at their pricing, but each are downgraded with Harris’ return to the lineup. Between Week’s 1-5, prior to his injury, Harris was accounting for over 37% of Ole Miss’ target share with no other Rebel receiver being much of a factor.
Injury Notes – Monitor Tre Harris’ status in pregame to ensure he’s a go, along with the Ole Miss backfield to see if Logan Diggs might potentially suit up.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Ja’Kobi Jackson ($4,400) or RB Jadan Baugh ($4,500) Bad matchup, and we would not under any circumstance stack the two Florida running backs together in a lineup vs. this Ole Miss defense that is No. 2 nationally in rush D success rate. But, this duo has been productive over the last month with a combined 10 rushing touchdowns between the two in the last four games. Two of the last three opponents Ole Miss has faced have rushed for 130+ yards on the ground.
Fade – RB Montrell Johnson ($4,300) Johnson played just seven snaps last week vs. LSU with two carries for minimal yardage. That was just his first game back from injury, but our impression is that this backfield has been fully turned over to the two runners that will be on the roster in 2025 as the Gators build momentum towards next year.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Don’t play any Florida options priced under $4.4k.
Pivot Play – WRs Elijhah Badger ($5,100) or WR Chimere Dike ($4,400) Florida has thrown 49 passes in the last two games. 24 of those passes have gone to either Dike or Badger, and the latter didn’t even play in one of those weeks. No Florida player beyond those two has been targeted more than three times in the last two games. Four SEC receivers have scored at least 17 fantasy points this season vs. Ole Miss.
Best of the Rest – QB DJ Lagway ($5,000) You just know that there will be folks who will play Lagway this week at this pricing. Our projection strongly advises against that, as do the defensive metrics for Ole Miss, ranking 30th in pass D success rate and 15th in EPA per pass play defensively. Florida will not be able to ground and pound, though, against this Ole Miss front like they’ve done the past few weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a.
North Carolina vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: UNC -3.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UNC 30 – BC 26.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 32% rain / 12 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Omarion Hampton ($9,600) I thought with how North Carolina’s season has played out that Hampton might shut things down a bit in preparation for the NFL next year. Not the case at all, as he’s had 30+ rushing attempts in each of the last two games, combining for over 100 fantasy points. Boston College will at least provide some resistance that Wake Forest and Florida State could not, as the Eagles are 10th in rush D success rate and 19th in EPA per run play defensively. But four ACC running backs have also scored over 23 fantasy points this season against BC, including the 50-burger from Bhayshul Tuten earlier in the year.
Fade – WR Nate McCollum ($4,500) I was going to include WR Kobe Paysour ($4,200) in this section, but he at least played 77% of the snaps last week vs. WF. McCollum’s time with North Carolina is likely coming to an end after this year, whether he tries for the next level or hits the portal again. Just two targets in the last two games and was on the field just 44% of the time.
Bargain Bin – TE John Copenhaver ($3,500) Copenhaver is likely to be one of the highest-owned bargain bin plays this week. Production isn’t great, but with Bryson Nesbit out of the lineup, Copenhaver has played over 90% of the team’s snaps in each of the last three games with 14 targets in that stretch. Four tight ends have scored 11 or more fantasy points against BC this season.
Pivot Play – WR J.J. Jones ($5,800) Four touchdowns in the last four games for Jones, who isn’t seeing high volume with Omarion Hampton dominating the touches for the UNC offense, but is still getting his normal share of reps, on the field over 70% of the time. BC is giving up 39.9 fantasy points a week to opposing WR rooms, and Jones is easily the most consistent of that group for UNC.
Best of the Rest – QB Jacolby Criswell ($7,000) Would be one of the stronger leverage plays against the field as it’s tough to trust the UNC passing game with how Omarion Hampton is rolling of late. BC only gives up around 19 FPPG to quarterbacks, but the Eagles are 116th in pass D success rate and 90th in EPA per pass play defensively. If forced to throw, UNC should be able to move the ball through the air.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – RB Kye Robichaux ($5,600) Nearly 300 yards rushing and four touchdowns in the last two games for Robichaux who is getting the bulk of the carries in the BC backfield with a few injuries to Turbo Richard and Treshaun Ward. With Thomas Castellanos no longer around, we should see the RBs getting more carries with the QB position no longer a factor in the run game.
Fade – QB Grayson James ($6,400) If you’re spending down at the QB position, there are multiple options with better projections, primarily Behren Morton with a game total near 70 and UCF’s Dylan Rizk who gets a matchup with the worst pass defense in the Big 12. BC’s passing game is below average and will be missing multiple pieces in the wide receiver room due to injuries.
Bargain Bin – TE Kamari Morales ($4,000) Three touchdowns in the last five games for Morales who has the storyline factor this week, facing his former team. Morales led all BC players last week with six targets. Boston College’s WR room is decimated with injury, so tight ends should be a bigger factor this week.
Pivot Play – WR Lewis Bond ($4,900) Bond accounts for 31% of the target share and 32% of the team’s receiving production. His 46 receptions are almost triple the number of the next closest wide receiver on the roster.
Best of the Rest – WR Reed Harris ($4,200) Reed has a season-high 78 yards and four receptions on five targets last week against SMU and has played over 88% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last three games. RB Jordan McDonald ($5,500) is too expensive for a backup but looks like he could be a factor in 2025, averaging over eight yards per carry this season. Even with Robichaux rolling like he is, McDonald has received double-digit rushing attempts in each of the last two games.
Injury Notes – Turbo Richard, Jaedn Skeete and Jerand Bradley are all expected to be out.
Wake Forest vs. Miami
Point-Spread: Mia -23.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: Mia 44 – WF 20.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – RB Demond Claiborne ($7,600) High-level numbers for the Miami run defense are solid, but the Canes also just gave up 271 yards and two scores to Georgia Tech two weeks ago. If Claiborne were $1k less, we’d have a bit more interest, but this is still one of the best backs in the country, having scored 20 or more fantasy points in seven of 10 games played.
Fade – QB Hank Bachmeier ($6,300) Bachmeier will start against Miami, but he did leave last week’s contest vs. North Carolina with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. We’re not interested in Bachmeier when he’s 100% healthy, let alone in a matchup like this where we could be replaced at some point.
Bargain Bin – WR Donavon Greene ($4,700) A fully healthy Donavon Greene – which is rare to type over the last several years – can be Wake Forest’s best wide receiver, as he’s shown the last two weeks with a touchdown against Cal, and then led the team with eight targets this past week vs. North Carolina.
Pivot Play – WR Taylor Morin ($5,200) Morin’s been on a heater in the last month, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each of the last four games, including multiple touchdowns and 100-yard receiving performances. Three of the top five highest point totals this season from opposing receivers facing Miami have been slot receivers. Morin has played over 80% of the team’s snaps in each of the last two games which is the most by a Wake wideout.
Best of the Rest – WR Horatio Fields ($4,500) Fields’ production has seen a decline since Greene re-entered the lineup with just 68 combined receiving yards over the last three games. His playing time has remained static, though, seeing his normal allotment of snaps.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami:
Top Play(s) – QB Cam Ward ($10,500) This is the week to spend up for Cam Ward. Miami in the playoff race. Ward in the Heisman race. Wake Forest is dead last in the country in pass D success rate, 125th in EPA per pass play, 130th in yards allowed through the air, and give up around 25 FPPG to quarterbacks. Assuming Wake Forest can score a bit with Miami, Ward should put up 30+ points.
Fade – RB Ajay Allen ($4,100) No injury tag for Allen, but the RB3 has not played an offensive snap since Week 9. Nearing the end of the season, it appears Miami’s RB rotation has shrunk to just Damien Martinez and Mark Fletcher exclusively.
Bargain Bin – TE Elijah Arroyo ($4,300) This must be an ACC thing because all these defenses within the conference seemingly struggle to defend the tight end position. Wake Forest is no different as they’re giving up 13.4 FPPG to the position. Four ACC tight ends have scored 17 or more fantasy points this season against the Demon Deacons.
Pivot Play – RB Damien Martinez ($6,100) or RB Mark Fletcher ($4,900) We were firing up the North Carolina passing game last week with the same matchup against this Wake Forest secondary, and it was again the Omarion Hampton show on the ground. WF is only mildly better this season defending the run, ranked 106th in success rate. With the focus on the Miami passing game, going heavy exposure on the run game with Martinez or Fletcher would be the ultimate leverage play.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Start up any one of Xavier Restrepo, Isaiah Horton, Jacolby George, and possibly even Sam Brown Jr. against this WF secondary. Of the team’s playing this weekend, Wake Forest allows the fourth most fantasy points (52.4) to opposing wide receiver groups. Brown is the least appealing of the foursome, fwiw, playing only 44% of the team’s snaps vs. Georgia Tech in Week 11, while the other three were on the field over 70% of the time.
Injury Notes – n/a.
SMU vs. Virginia
Point-Spread: SMU -9.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: SMU 37.5 – UVA 24
Weather: 52 degrees / 8% rain / 14 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB Brashard Smith ($8,800) Three straight 100-yard rushing performances for Smith, now facing a defense that is 115th in EPA per run play and 105th in rush D success rate. Five ACC running backs have scored at least 23 fantasy points against Virginia this season.
Fade – WR Derrick McFall ($4,100) McFall might be the next Brashard Smith in time, as a wide receiver recruit that has the ability to play running back, but the freshman hasn’t seen the field since Week 5. Curious as to why he’s priced this way as a likely redshirt, having played in just three games.
Bargain Bin – TE Matthew Hibner ($4,400) Virginia is another team that has not defended the tight end position well this season, allowing 13.8 fantasy points per week, with tight ends averaging 27% more than their seasonal average when facing UVA. Hibner was shut out against BC last Saturday, but still played 80% of the team’s snaps. Don’t think SMU has really missed a beat with Hibner playing for RJ Maryland.
Pivot Play – QB Kevin Jennings ($7,900) As safe a fantasy play as you can get from the QB position. Jennings has a 21-point projection. Virginia allows 20.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Five quarterbacks have scored between 22 and 26 fantasy points this season vs. Virginia. And Jennings has scored 20 or more fantasy points in five of the last six games. All of that to say, Jennings is probably scoring 20 fantasy points again this week.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The five highest scoring performances this season from a wide receiver facing Virginia have all been boundary receivers. That would favor both Key’Shawn Smith and Jordan Hudson, who run 87% of their routes outside. Roderick Daniels ran the most routes of any SMU receiver last week, playing 93% of the team’s snaps, and has scored double-digit fantasy points in five of the last six games. I’d feel good about having one of the three in my DFS lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – TE Tyler Neville ($3,500) I usually don’t bet on game totals or team totals – I’m a player props guy – but someone tell me how Virginia is getting to 24 points which Vegas projects, as we do not have a single UVA player projecting over 13 fantasy points this week. Neville gets the nod as Virginia’ top option because SMU has been cooked by tight ends this season with five players scoring double-digit fantasy points against the Mustangs. Neville has essentially been UVA’s second-best receiving option beyond Malachi Fields this season.
Fade – QB Anthony Colandrea ($6,200) HC Tony Elliott said that if this game were played on Wednesday that Colandrea would still be the starter. We’re definitely seeing Tony Muskett, though, this week with how Colandrea has performed in the last several weeks, including three interceptions on three straight drives last Saturday against Notre Dame. Easy fade.
Bargain Bin – RB Xavier Brown ($4,000) Virginia needs to get Brown more carries, which has happened to an extent over the last two weeks with a combined 26 rushing attempts. Brown is averaging 1.6 yards per carry more than Kobe Pace who had a fumble last week vs. Notre Dame. SMU doesn’t allow a ton of fantasy points to running backs, given that they have the No. 1 rush defense in the ACC, but did just give up 22 fantasy points this past week to Kye Robichaux.
Pivot Play – WR Malachi Fields ($6,800) 26% of the team’s target share with 746 receiving yards. The next closest receiver on the team has just 201 yards, and that player (Trell Harris) has only played in three games this entire season. No wideout is worth rostering beyond Fields.
Best of the Rest – WR Andre Greene Jr. ($3,900) or WR Chris Tyree ($4,400) IF, and that’s a big if, you were to consider a UVA wideout not named Fields, it should be either Greene or Tyree as they’re second and third among routes run among Virginia wide receivers, consistently playing over 50% of the team’s snaps.
Injury Notes – n/a.
Indiana vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -13
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: OSU 32.5 – IU 19.5
Weather: 43 degrees / 25% rain / 12 mph winds
Indiana:
This will be a better game to watch with nothing on the line in DFS with how these two defenses have performed this season. Ohio State is No. 5 nationally in EPA per pass play defensively and No. 7 in pass D success rate, allowing just 9.9 FPPG to quarterbacks, so we’re out on Kurtis Rourke. Indiana’s top WR, Elijah Sarratt, accounts for just 23% of the target share, with five different receivers having 20 or more catches. The Hoosiers spread the ball around too much to make any wideout worthwhile to have in our lineups, in this specific matchup especially. And no running back has scored more than 20 fantasy points in a game this season vs. Ohio State. Don’t think that’ll happen this week either in a split backfield between Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Howard ($8,300) Don’t feel the need to roster any Ohio State players this week with how strong IU is defensively. Howard gets the nod because of his consistency, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in eight of 10 games this season. The IU defense has been stifling, though, against opposing quarterbacks, allowing just 10.2 FPPG this season with just two QBs scoring more than 11 fantasy points all year.
Fade – RBs. We thought that at this point in the season that someone would separate from the pack between Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, and that simply has not happened. Four times combined this season has one of the OSU running backs scored 20 or more fantasy points, which you would need at these salaries. Indiana is the No. 1 defense in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground. AND to make matters worse, Ohio State will be without its starting center for the remainder of the season.
Bargain Bin – n/a. They finally priced up Carnell Tate to where he should be, so we’re not playing anyone below $5k.
Pivot Play – WR Brandon Innis ($3,600) Only reason we’re giving Innis a mention here is because his lone touchdown this season came in Ohio State’s previous pivotal matchup at Penn State. Just four targets in two games since then, and barely saw the field vs. Northwestern last week.
Best of the Rest – WRs. 21 of the team’s 26 receiving touchdowns this season have come from Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate or Emeka Egbuka. Similar to the Penn State game, this is not a situation to stack multiple Ohio State receivers in a lineup. Just twice this season has an opposing receiver scored more than 20 fantasy points against a Hoosiers’ defense that is 18th nationally in EPA per pass play.
Injury Notes – n/a.
Kentucky vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -20.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Tex 34 – UK 13.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Kentucky:
Lowest implied team total on the slate. QB is obviously not in play. WR Dane Key ($5,300) has been the most consistent offensive piece for Kentucky but playing a secondary that is No. 2 nationally in pass D success rate. Texas is giving up just 20 fantasy points combined to opposing WR groups. I’d be surprised if the Wildcats threw for 100 yards. With Chip Trayanum back in the fold, Kentucky will mix in three running backs against a defense that is giving up just 19 fantasy points total to opposing backfields. Outside of Trevor Etienne, no running back has scored more than 20 fantasy points this season against the Longhorns. Expect to see a mix of Jamarion Wilcox, Chip Trayanum and Demie Sumo all getting carries.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Tre Wisner ($6,500) OR RB Jaydon Blue ($6,500) It’s not about running football with this duo. The usage of the Texas running backs in the passing game is what is most appealing as both Blue and Wisner have at least three receptions in each of the last four games. I feel like that’s unheard of for what constitutes as a committee backfield. Assuming Texas holds firm and wins by double-digits, expect the running game to dominate in the second half just as they did a week ago.
Fade – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,200) I suspect another matchup where the opponents attempts to slow the pace and muck up the game just like Arkansas did last week, because Kentucky knows they cannot outscore Texas in a shootout. The Wildcats are 41st in pass D success rate this season but are giving up just 12 fantasy points per contest to opposing quarterbacks. Not one QB has scored more than 19 fantasy points against Kentucky all year long.
Bargain Bin – WR Ryan Wingo ($3,600) DeAndre Moore Jr. popped up on the Wednesday injury report as questionable this week. That should lead to more opportunities for Wingo who was already playing over 60% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last three games. TE Gunnar Helm ($4,100) is the honorable mention here as DraftKings atoned for their mistake last week of listing Texas’ top target getter at just $3.1k.
Pivot Play – WR Matthew Golden ($4,400) The former Houston transfer is on a heater with five receiving touchdowns in the last three games. Major risk rostering any Texas pass-catcher this year as the leading receiver accounts for just 14% of the target share. But Golden is emerging as the team’s best fantasy option.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Bond ($5,000) Bond leads all wide receivers for Texas in targets (43), receptions (30) and receiving yards. I also have a strong inclination that before this year is over, WR Silas Bolden ($3,200) is going to have a clutch performance at some point. The Oregon State transfer has seen his playing time rise the last three games and had a season-high five targets vs. Arkansas. Should DeAndre Moore miss this Saturday, Bolden could be a factor.
Injury Notes – n/a.
Colorado vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: Col -2.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: Col 31 – KU 28.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – QB Shedeur Sanders ($9,200) Strong projection this week for Sanders and is a player that you can just set and forget and not worry about having scored 20+ fantasy points in all but one game this season. KU is allowing around 22 fantasy points per contest to opposing quarterbacks. The debate comes with his pricing, as an example, Garrett Greene having a similar projection at $1.4k less.
Fade – RB Dallan Hayden ($3,600) Carries are at a premium as it is for Colorado running backs in this pass-happy system, and Hayden has fallen behind Isaiah Augustave on the depth chart with just 23 rushing yards in the last two games.
Bargain Bin – RB Isaiah Augustave ($4,100) Augustave didn’t see the volume we wanted last week with just nine attempts but rushed for over 50 yards and a score vs. Utah. This is a great matchup vs. Kansas this week as the Jayhawks are 118th in rush D success rate and 125th in EPA per run play. The only thing stopping Augustave from having a productive week would be Deion Sanders trying to rack up the passing numbers to boost his two Heisman hopeful’s resumes.
Pivot Play – WR Travis Hunter ($9,000) Hunter’s target volume in the last six weeks, outside of one game vs. Texas Tech, doesn’t warrant consideration at this pricing. The lone argument for Hunter is Heisman Campaign honestly, and the staff force feeding him scoring opportunities. Hunter is only averaging around 22% target share over the last six games, and we’d much rather that number closer to or above 30%. Colorado just has so many options at wide receiver.
Best of the Rest – WR Lajohntay Wester ($6,700) or WR Will Sheppard ($5,600) Sheppard has really come on the back half of this season, now with consecutive 20-point fantasy performances and touchdowns in five of the last six games. Wester continues to be the most consistent Colorado receiver with a 78% catch rate and at least five receptions in each of the last five games. Five Big 12 wideouts have scored at least 20 fantasy points against KU this season.
Injury Notes – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($4,200) Latest reporting is that Horn “has a chance” to suit up this week. Should Horn not be available, both WR Drelon Miller ($4,000) and even WR Terrell Timmons Jr. ($3,000) would be options as they combined for nine targets last week.
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($7,500) Volume is down slightly this season for Neal, but once KU hits the red-zone, it’s almost a lock that the senior back is finding the end-zone, now with 10 rushing touchdowns in his last seven games. Colorado’s defense has improved immensely, but are average at defending the run, ranked 66th in EPA per rush play and 42nd in success rate.
Fade – WR Quentin Skinner ($4,900) or WR Lawrence Arnold ($4,300) Not exactly sure which WR will be matched up with Travis Hunter on Saturday, so we’ll avoid both this week. Just one boundary receiver – Dorian Singer last week – has scored more than 15 fantasy points against Colorado this season because of Hunter’s coverage abilities. Both Skinner and Arnold line up outside.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing any KU players listed below $5k this week.
Pivot Play – QB Jalon Daniels ($6,900) A 23-point projection at this salary is fine but feels a touch high going against a strong secondary that is allowing just 16.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. We like Daniels’ volume on the ground lately with double-digit carries in each of the last three games, and dual-threats have given the Buffs the most trouble this season – KJ Jefferson and Sawyer Robertson. Just two QBs have scored over 21 fantasy points against Colorado this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Luke Grimm ($6,000) Four of the top five wide receivers to score the most points against Colorado this season are slot receivers. Grimm lines up in the slot 76% of the time.
Injury Notes – n/a.
Central Florida vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: UCF -3
O/U Total: 64
Implied Score: UCF 33.5 – WVU 30.5
Weather: 43 degrees / 67% rain / 12 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($9,800) Metrics suggest fading Harvey against this WVU defense, but the Mountaineers have given up a TON of fantasy points to Big 12 running backs, including this past week where Baylor’s Bryson Washington posted 47.2 points. Five players have scored at least 22 fantasy points against the Mountaineers this season, two of which are mediocre fantasy options in Carsen Hansen and Evan Pryor. If they can hit 22 points against WVU, what can an elite talent like Harvey do?
Fade – RB Peny Boone ($3,800) Another cautionary tale for players transferring up from a cushy spot at a MAC school to a P4 team. Boone has not played a single offensive snap since Week 6. He’s played in five games so he cannot redshirt. Wonder what the future has in store there because I did see that UCF is in the top five for one of the top JUCO transfers in this coming cycle.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman ($3,700) Pittman’s production has spiked since Dylan Rizk was inserted as the starter, now with nine receptions on 10 targets in his last two games with over 140 receiving yards.
Pivot Play – QB Dylan Rizk ($6,000) A projection of just 16 fantasy points suggests we fade Rizk this week, but I’m not so sure. West Virginia is 15th of 16 Big 12 teams in yards allowed per game through the air. The Mountaineers are one of the worst secondaries in the country according to the advanced metrics as well, ranked 133rd in EPA per pass play and 127th in success rate. Rizk has shown himself well in two starts.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Hudson ($5,100) or WR Jacoby Jones ($5,300) Unlikely that I’d stack the two together, but it is possible as the duo combined for 22 of the team’s 32 targets back in Week 11. We’ve already mentioned the strong matchup for the UCF passing game this week. West Virginia is allowing around 41 fantasy points per contest to opposing WR groups.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Greene ($7,800) Greene should be a popular choice at QB or SF with a 27-point projection at this pricing. In his first game back from injury, Greene didn’t mind putting his body in harm’s way, rushing for 129 yards and two scores against Baylor last week. We know what he can do with his legs. This could be a decent matchup throwing the ball, against a UCF defense that has allowed seven passing touchdowns in the last three games without an interception. The Knights are 102nd in pass D success rate and 12th in the conference in yards allowed through the air.
Fade – n/a. All West Virginia players are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – WR Justin Robinson ($3,500) Robinson will enter the starting lineup with Traylon Ray now out for the season. The former Georgia and Mississippi State transfer had season-highs with 58% of snaps played against Baylor with seven targets.
Pivot Play – WR Hudson Clement ($4,100) Clement is cemented now as the team’s WR1 with the Ray injury, facing a UCF defense that gives up quite a few fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Five players, all of which are in the Big 12, scored 20 or more fantasy points against this UCF secondary.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Still a split backfield for WVU between Jaheim White and CJ Donaldson, and this is not a favorable matchup as UCF is stout up the middle, ranked 19th in rush D success rate. Opposing backfields are averaging just a combined 19 fantasy points per game against this defense. TE Kole Taylor ($3,800) picked up some of the slack last week with a season-high nine targets and a touchdown. Taylor has at least five receptions in three of the last five games.
Injury Notes – Starting receiver Traylon Ray is out for the season.
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: TT -3.5
O/U Total: 68.5
Implied Score: TT 36 – OK St 32.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($8,900) Best play of the slate. 100+ rushing yards in every game played, facing the worst run defense in the Big 12. Oklahoma State allows 60+ more yards per game on the ground than the next closest team in the conference.
Fade – RB J’Koby Williams ($3,400) I hate that I thought in the preseason that Brooks’ 292 carries in 2023 was not replicable. Brooks is going to match that this year should he play in the team’s bowl game. Brooks accounts for 68% of Texas Tech’s rushing attempts this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Jalin Conyers ($3,600) Conyers has not had the impact that some expected this season with just 18 receptions on 25 targets but is coming off his best performance of the season with two receiving touchdowns vs. Colorado in Week 11. Oklahoma State doesn’t face a ton of good fantasy tight ends in the Big 12 conference, but four players have scored at least 11 fantasy points against the Cowboys this season.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($6,500) QB will always be in play from a game total that is nearing 70 points. Five Big 12 quarterbacks have scored at least 25 fantasy points against Oklahoma State this season, and Texas Tech chucks the ball around a ton, ranked 30th nationally in pass play percentage.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The trio of Coy Eakin, Josh Kelly and Caleb Douglas combine for 15 of the 24 receiving touchdowns for Texas Tech with 62% of the team’s target share. Tech does not rotate at receiver. Stacking multiple Tech receivers is a viable option because of how often the Red Raiders throw the ball, especially in this type of game environment. Kelly leads the team with 107 targets this season, but boundary receivers have found the most fantasy success against Oklahoma State, which would favor Douglas or Eakin.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – WR Brennan Presley ($7,200) or WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($6,600) If Oklahoma State had better QB play, we’d potentially look at stacking Presley and Stribling together because Texas Tech allows a ton of fantasy points (48 FPPG) to opposing wide receivers. We’ll limit it to one because of the possibility Alan Bowman gets benched at some point. Five receivers have scored at least 25 fantasy points this season against the Red Raiders.
Fade – QB Alan Bowman ($7,300) There are two potential outcomes this week. Either it’s the Alan Bowman legacy game, going through his third senior day ceremony, or he gets bench in favor of backup Maealiuaki Smith who has gotten snaps in each of the last two games. Given how this season has played out, we’re not risking Bowman here and will live with the results for better or worse. FWIW – Tech is 102nd in pass D success rate and giving up 26 FPPG to quarterbacks. Folks will play Bowman this week to get leverage against the field in what shows a favorable matchup on paper.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody is playable under $5k for Oklahoma State.
Pivot Play – RB Ollie Gordon ($8,700) This will undoubtedly be Gordon’s last home game as a Cowboy and is coming off his best performance of the season with 121 yards and a touchdown on 25 attempts. Six of Gordon’s nine rushing touchdowns this season have come in the last four games, and Vegas seems to think he’ll have a productive game with a rushing prop line at 92.5 yards.
Best of the Rest – WR Rashod Owens ($5,000) Best thing we can say about Owens is that he was on the field for 71% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 11 vs. TCU. Despite that, the senior receiver was held out of the box score and did not accumulate a single target. Not sure what happened this season for Owens who is one of the biggest fantasy busts in 2024. Stribling and Presley are still finding ways to be productive, so the QB play is not the issue.
Injury Notes – n/a.
BYU vs. Arizona State
Point-Spread: BYU -3.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: BYU 26 – ASU 22.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – WR Darius Lassiter ($6,300) or WR Chase Roberts ($6,100) Tough finding a top play for BYU this week, and don’t necessarily think we need any Cougar in our lineups. We’ll side with one of BYU’s top receivers (not both) as the duo combines for 46% of the team’s receiving production with eight of the 20 receiving touchdowns. Darius Lassiter has four double-digit target performances in the last six games, while Roberts has 70 or more receiving yards in each of the last three weeks.
Fade – RB Hinckley Ropati ($4,700) If we have minimal interest in LJ Martin (see below), then we’re certainly not interested in his backup Ropati who averages just eight touches per game against a statically-strong run defense.
Bargain Bin – WR Keelan Marion ($4,300) Too high a salary for a player with just 27 targets this season, and has been listed at min pricing in week’s prior on DK. That said, Marion is established as the team’s third option in the passing game and is on the field over 60% of the time.
Pivot Play – QB Jake Retzlaff ($8,000) The BYU passing offense has fallen flat in recent weeks with Retzlaff combining for just 25 fantasy points in the last two games. Not what you like to see heading into a matchup with Arizona State who is giving up just 15.4 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Dig a little deeper and the Sun Devils are just 80th in EPA per pass play and 96th in pass D success rate. With BYU’s playoff hopes teetering in the balance, they need a big performance this week from the entire offense, specifically Retzlaff.
Best of the Rest – RB LJ Martin ($7,000) Arizona’s run defense ranks No. 3 in the Big 12, but we’ve seen some cracks in the armor over the last month, allowing 11 of the 16 rushing touchdowns in that span. Kansas State didn’t run the ball enough last week, averaging over six yards a carry vs. the Sun Devils.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordyn Tyson ($6,500) Tyson has gone from solid fantasy receiver option to one of the best in the country at his position, now with five receiving touchdowns in the last three games. The former Colorado transfer caught a season-high 12 passes on 16 targets for 173 yards last week against a good Kansas State defense. With 90 targets this season, Tyson has over triple the amount of the next closest Arizona State receiver. 30% target share is usually the Benchmark for an elite fantasy receiver. Tyson is now at 36%.
Fade – RB Kyson Brown ($4,600) Cam Skattebo’s return makes Brown irrelevant to us, specifically at this price. In his return from injury, Skattebo accounted for 25 of the 37 rushing attempts for Arizona State last week.
Bargain Bin – WR Xavier Guillory ($3,400) We do care about fantasy production first and foremost, so Guillory does not stick out in that aspect, with just one reception in each of the last four games. The senior receiver still plays over 70% of the team’s snaps so he’s on the field a bunch at the very least.
Pivot Play – RB Cam Skattebo ($9,400) Skattebo averaged under three yards a carry vs. Kansas State, but 29 touches in his first game back is promising for his future outlook. High-level numbers show a solid run defense for BYU, but the Cougars are just 83rd in rush D success rate and 92nd in EPA per run play defensively. We’ve seen a few B12 running backs have a ton of success against BYU, with Ollie Gordon (33 fpts) and RJ Harvey (27 fpts).
Best of the Rest – QB Sam Leavitt ($7,500) We’d rather just have Tyson by himself in a lineup vs. pairing him with Leavitt. BYU’s secondary is the strength of the defense, ranked 20th in EPA per pass play. Just one QB all season has scored more than 20 fantasy points against BYU.
Injury Notes – n/a.
Penn State vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: PSU -12
O/U Total: 45
Implied Score: PSU 28.5 – Minn 16.5
Weather: 33 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – TE Tyler Warren ($7,700) It is neck and neck right now as to which tight end between Warren and Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin will win the John Mackey award. I could be misguided, but with that race being so close, it does feel like Penn State will continue to force feed the ball to its best offensive player in order to win the award. 16 receptions on 18 targets in just the last two weeks.
Fade – QB Drew Allar ($7,400) Minnesota is 16th in EPA per pass play defensively and giving up just 12 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. No QB has scored more than 19 fantasy points against the Gophers all year.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($4,100) I like the way Wallace is trending of late with 50 or more receiving yards in four of the last five games. The team’s WR1 found the end-zone last week against Purdue for the first time since Week 1. That’s mostly a reflection of just how dominant Tyler Warren has been.
Pivot Play – RBs. Nick Singleton looked healthy last week, rushing for 40 yards and a score on just seven attempts. Kaytron Allen was a surprise in the passing game with 44 yards on four catches but was a non-factor in the running game. Not a huge surprise as Penn State did not need to risk either back in a blowout setting. Three B1G running backs have scored over 23 fantasy points against Minnesota this season, but neither of those players were in a committee approach. The Gophers are good enough defensively at stopping the run that we don’t have significant interest in a 50-50 split backfield like Penn State has.
Best of the Rest – WR Omari Evans ($3,700) Minimal interest in any Penn State pass-catcher if their last name doesn’t start with a ‘W’. Just wanted to point out that Evans did start over Julian Fleming last week against Purdue. We’re never interested in Fleming as a DFS option, but that decreases the probability of rostering the former Ohio State transfer to 0%.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – WR Daniel Jackson ($5,600) This will mostly be a week to fade the Minnesota offense with the second-lowest implied team total on the slate. But we cannot deny a receiver that is about to surpass the 100-target threshold for the second straight year, as Jackson has double-digit targets now in each of the last four games.
Fade – QB Max Brosmer ($5,500) We hit on Max Brosmer once this year when touting him against Maryland. Not this week against a Penn State defense that is giving up just 9.9 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Elijah Spencer ($4,100) Jackson and Spencer combine for 50% of the team’s targets, 46% of Minnesota’s receptions and seven of the 15 receiving touchdowns. Next closest wideout on the team to Spencer’s 51 targets is Le’Meke Brockington with just 21.
Pivot Play – RB Darius Taylor ($8,500) The chances are stronger that Minnesota cannot run the football against Penn State as the Nittany Lions are 16th in rush D success rate and 29th in EPA per run play. What keeps Taylor in the mix each week is his utilization in the passing game, sitting third on the team with 50 targets. Just one running back has scored more than 20 fantasy points against PSU all year – coincidentally a backup RB from USC. Taylor doesn’t have a ton of appeal this week at that price.
Best of the Rest – TE Jameson Geers ($3,600) Geers had a season-high eight receptions on nine targets against Rutgers in Week 11, running the most routes he’s had all year long. Penn State has given up some monster tight end performances this season, including Harold Fannin (30 fpts) and just last week with Purdue’s Max Klare (22 fpts).
Injury Notes – n/a.
Pittsburgh vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -8
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: UL 32.5 – Pitt 24.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 2% rain / 11 mph winds
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($9,500) That looked like the September version of Desmond Reid last week, rushing for just 68 yards on the ground but a whopping 10 receptions and 31 fantasy points. Louisville doesn’t allow a ton of fantasy points to running backs this season, but if you’re looking for a comparison, the Cardinals did give up 26 fantasy points and 81 receiving yards to Treshaun Ward back in late October. Perhaps Reid finds similar success as a receiver this week.
Fade – TE Malachi Thomas ($3,500) Who? If Gavin Bartholomew, Pittsburgh’s starting tight end, caught his first touchdown of the season in Week 12, then we’re certainly not interested in a backup tight end with that lack of usage at the position.
Bargain Bin – WR Raphael Williams Jr. ($4,200) Team leader in routes run, coming off a season-high 14 targets and seven receptions last week. With Censere Lee now out for the season, Pitt’s WR rotation shrinks from 4 to 3 so we might have a bit more interest in Williams and the rest of that room now.
Pivot Play – QB Nate Yarnell ($7,600) Yarnell as a pivot play comes with a caveat. The 6-foot-6 junior quarterback played good enough for Pitt to have a shot at upsetting Clemson last week, throwing for 350 yards and a touchdown on 54 attempts. He’ll likely get the start again Saturday, against a Louisville defense that is giving up 26 FPPG to quarterbacks with five players scoring at least 25 fantasy points against them this season. And then there’s the kicker. Those QBs include Ashton Daniels, Tyler Huff, Riley Leonard, etc. All dual-threat QBs, of which Yarnell is not.
Best of the Rest – WR Konata Mumpfield ($5,900) or WR Kenny Johnson ($4,400) Makes more fiscal sense to roster Williams over both Mumpfield and Johnson – no idea why Johnson’s salary is more than Williams who leads him in most receiving categories. Louisville just allowed 49 fantasy points last week to a freshman receiver for Stanford, so it’s definitely possible one of the Pitt wideouts has a big day.
Injury Notes – Eli Holstein ($8,100) As of Tuesday, Holstein has not been medically cleared to play this week. With how Nate Yarnell performed against Clemson, we think Pitt will let Holstein sit another week.
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR JaCorey Brooks ($8,200) The most consistent piece of the Louisville offense, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season and is now just 55 yards short from a 1,000-yard year.
Fade – QB Tyler Shough ($8,400) Not an outright fade, but Shough doesn’t project that highly this week for the salary that he has. Pitt pass defense is solid, ranked 52nd in success rate and giving up just 17.2 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Just two QBs all year have scored more than 20 fantasy points against the Panthers, and you need at least that this week from Shough to hit value.
Bargain Bin – TE Mark Redman ($3,700) The San Diego State transfer has played over 90% of the team’s snaps in each of the last three games with 50% of his total targets this season (30) coming in that stretch. Pitt has struggled to defend tight ends this season – five players have scored at least 13 fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Pivot Play – RB Duke Watson ($6,000) Personally, I don’t feel it’s a significant downgrade from Isaac Brown to Duke Watson, should the former be unavailable on Saturday. Albeit on lesser carries, Watson has a higher yards per carry average, higher average yards after contact and a better breakaway percentage rate on Pro Football Focus. The issue is the matchup for Watson, as the Pitt defense has held four of its last five opponents to under four yards a carry, including Phil Mafah who had 17 rushing yards on 17 attempts.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Bell ($5,500) Bell is priced up this week after his best performance of the year with 112 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. He and Brooks combine for 11 of the team’s 21 receiving touchdowns. For that reason, we typically avoid the WR3 in this offense but wanted to note that WR Cataurus Hicks ($3,300) did play more snaps than starter WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($3,400) vs. Stanford.
Injury Notes – RB Isaac Brown ($6,700) The freshman phenom left the Stanford contest with a shoulder injury and was seen with a sling in the second half. HC Jeff Brohm said Monday that they’re hopeful he can play but doesn’t know yet. Pitt’s strong run defense and Brown’s injury history (not the first time he’s been injured this season), makes this a fade on a Main Slate.
