Missouri vs. Oklahoma
- Point-Spread: OU -7.5
- O/U Total: 42.5
- Implied Score: OU 25 – Mizzou 17.5
- Weather: 55 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Ahmad Hardy ($7,700) What a performance last week for the sophomore running back, rushing for 300 yards on 25 attempts in the win over Mississippi State. The difficulty in rostering Hardy this week is the matchup as Oklahoma ranks No. 1 in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground, giving up around 16 FPPG to opposing backfields. Alabama’s anemic running game behind Daniel Hill Jr. found some level of success last week vs. the Sooners, and Missouri won’t win this game on the road without Hardy getting 20+ touches.
Fade – Whoever is at QB. Report on Sunday came out that there is optimism that Beau Pribula may be able to return this weekend after suffering an ankle injury vs. Vanderbilt earlier in the year. Neither he nor Matt Zollers is under consideration this week, facing an OU defense that only allows 12 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. They’re all cheap, and understandably so with the team throwing for under 200 passing yards and just 15 completed passes over the last two games. Pribula starting would raise the floor of the group, but there’s not much upside here even if that happens, as the Tigers are spreading targets around this season. WR Kevin Coleman Jr. ($4,800), WR Josh Manning ($4,100) and freshman WR Donovan Olgubode ($4,400) are options, with the latter two hauling in touchdowns this past week. WR Marquis Johnson ($3,900) is the only unplayable option amongst the group as may have lost his starting job, playing only 18% of the offensive snaps vs. Mississippi State.
Injury Notes – QB Beau Pribula (questionable)
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Sategna ($6,400) This past Saturday was the first time since mid-September that Sategna did not score double-digit fantasy points in a game, limited to just four catches for minimal yards. The starting slot receiver continues to lead OU in all receiving categories, while also leading the team in targets in six of the last seven games. Sategna is just about the only considerable option on the OU offense.
Fade – RB Xavier Robinson ($5,000) Robinson left the contest vs. Alabama last week with a knee sprain, though did re-enter the game in the fourth quarter. Early indications are that Robinson will give it a go on Saturday, but likely not at 100 percent. If it’s a split between Robinson and Tory Blaylock, this backfield goes from minimal interest to none at all. Missouri is 10th nationally in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Deion Burks ($4,000) Obviously not the season most thought Burks would have in 2025, but he’s still on the field a lot, leading the Sooners in routes run, playing over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last seven games.
Best of the Rest – QB John Mateer ($7,200) Lowest salary we’ve seen for Mateer on DK since the Texas game when the DFS providers knew that the OU quarterback was injured. Pricing is just about the only reason we’re mildly considering Mateer in this spot, because the Mizzou secondary is one of the better groups in the SEC, ranked second in yards allowed and 17th in pass D success rate. Mateer’s rushing usage also keeps him in play, with double-digit rushing attempts in five of the last six weeks. More will be counted on Mateer if both Robinson and Blaylock are limited.
Injury Notes – RB Xavier Robinson (questionable), RB Tory Blaylock (questionable)
Louisville vs. SMU
- Point-Spread: SMU -2.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: SMU 27.5 – Lou 25
- Weather: 62 degrees / 7% rain / 7 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Chris Bell ($6,800) and / or WR Caullin Lacy ($5,400) We thought last week would be Chris Bell week but that did not transpire, catching just five passes for 79 yards with no touchdowns. We were a week early. This is a better matchup against an SMU defense that is allowing over 51 FPPG to opposing WR rooms. Both Bell and Lacy are playable in this scenario with the duo dominating a condensed team target share.
Fade – RB Duke Watson ($5,000) So, here’s the deal with Watson. We’re fading because he’s clearly been the lesser of the two backs between he and Keyjuan Brown. That is obvious to the naked eye. Add in a costly fumble last week and that should be even more reason to fade the sophomore back. That said, we did see Watson’s usage increase slightly from 8 touches to 13 touches against Clemson. Also, the red-zone distribution is frustrating, with Watson holding a 2-0 advantage last week over Brown.
Pivot Play – QB Miller Moss ($5,300) On the surface, Moss is a play at this salary and an 18-point projection. But he has not played well over the last three weeks, failing to score more than 16 fantasy points in a game with just one touchdown pass in three games. When asked about the QB position on Monday, Jeff Brohm said, “we’ll have packages for all of our quarterbacks. We’ll put the best guy out there that will help us win.” Not exactly a vote of confidence in Moss. This will be a dilemma this week, because you can absolutely throw on SMU, with the Mustangs ranked 16th among 17 teams in the ACC in yards allowed and give up over 21 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – RB Keyjuan Brown ($6,000) High floor / low upside play with Brown. The good – 90+ rushing yards in each of the last four games. The bad – Brown gives way to Duke Watson in the red zone with even Miller Moss getting more goal-line touches. Also bad – SMU is 3rd in the ACC in yards given up on the ground with the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed in the conference.
Injury Notes – RB Isaac Brown (out)
SMU:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Hudson ($5,300) Hudson is the closest thing in year’s we’ve had to an alpha WR for the Mustangs, scoring double-digit fantasy points in six of his last seven games, excluding the dud for the entire SMU offense vs. Wake Forest. Hudson has led the team in targets in each of the last six games, with seven or more targets in every game during that stretch.
Fade – RB TJ Harden ($5,300) SMU is 111th in rush success rate and 106th in yards per game on the ground, facing a defense that allows just 17 FPPG to opposing backfields. No thanks.
Bargain Bin – TE Matthew Hibner ($3,300) Hibner has now scored 10+ fantasy points in four of his last five games played, no longer sharing the position with RJ Maryland like previous years. Louisville is giving up around 11 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Pivot Play – WR Yamir Knight ($4,500) Knight is coming off his best performance of the season by far with 162 yards and seven receptions on nine targets in the win over Boston College. The former JMU transfer has found the end-zone in consecutive games, heading into a matchup with a Louisville defense that has struggled to defend starting slot receivers. Malachi Toney and Cataurus Hicks both had 100+ yards in their matchups with the Cardinals. And in the last two games, Louisville has allowed a combined 23 receptions to Jacob de Jesus and Antonio Williams…both slot receivers.
Best of the Rest – QB Kevin Jennings ($7,600) Not an appealing matchup for Jennings this week, facing the No. 1 pass defense in the conference, as Louisville is first in yards allowed, and 20th nationally in pass D success rate. Jennings just barely missed the cut as SMU’s fade option, because they’re so woeful running the football. WR Romello Brinson ($4,600) is one of the strongest pivot options on the slate that will have less than 5% ownership. My guess is Hudson, Knight and Hibner have higher ownership. Brinson doesn’t have the production of a Jordan Hudson but is on the field 90% of the time each week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami vs. Virginia Tech
- Point-Spread: Mia -18.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: Mia 33.5 – VT 15
- Weather: 58 degrees / 52% rain / 8 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – RB Girard Pringle Jr. ($4,700) This will be a situation to monitor pregame. Mark Fletcher is questionable again this week, but Mario Cristobal said that his RB1 is trending great as of Monday. If Fletcher is in, this backfield is probably no longer an option. If Fletcher is out, we’re looking at the true freshman who has emerged with 30 total fantasy points the last two weeks, coming off his first 100-yard performance of the season. The Hokies are 14th in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground with each of their last four opponents rushing for at least three touchdowns in the respective matchup.
Fade – WR CJ Daniels ($5,500) Miami’s coaching staff has done this a few times now, listing a player as probable or expecting to play, but ultimately making the decision to hold the player out even if dressed in full pads. Happened earlier in the season with JoJo Trader and Jordan Lyle, with the most recent example being CJ Daniels who didn’t log a single snap vs. NC State. Obviously, Daniels was not needed in the blowout win, but the concern is that we have the same scenario this week as a near three-touchdown favorite. Too big a risk to play Daniels, even if dressed out in pregame warmups. RB Jordan Lyle ($4,100) did not log a single snap against NC State. Transfer portal in 3, 2, 1…
Bargain Bin – WR Keelan Marion ($3,700) CJ Daniels-status dependent. If Daniels is out, our interest in Marion increases significantly as the BYU transfer has really come on the last three games with 53 combined fantasy points scored over that stretch.
Best of the Rest – QB Carson Beck ($6,900) or WR Malachi Toney ($7,200) We’ve seen the September version of Beck the last two weeks, tossing four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and completing 76% of his passes. Helps when facing Syracuse and NC State at home too. Virginia Tech is only allowing 21 FPPG to quarterbacks this season but are 118th in pass D success rate. Toney is playable each week, especially when he’s thrown three passes (one TD) in the last two games. We’re in the “must-win convincingly” portion of Miami’s schedule to have an opportunity at the CFP, so if Miami gets out to a lead, they’ll continue to pour it on here.
Injury Notes – RB Mark Fletcher (questionable)
Virginia Tech:
What are we doing with the QB pricing on this slate? It’s not a great matchup by any means against the No. 1 scoring defense and No. 1 run defense in the ACC, but QB Kyron Drones ($4,800) is not a $4.8k caliber quarterback. 20+ fantasy points in each of the last four games and has been a dynamo on the ground with 79 or more rushing yards in four straight as well. All you need is 15 fantasy points from Drones to pay this off. Out on the running backs as Miami is 10th in stuff rate, 9th in rush D success rate and giving up just 15 FPPG to opposing backfields. Virginia Tech’s WR rotation has shortened with the departure of Donavon Greene who left the team this month. WR Ayden Greene ($4,000), WR Takye Heath ($3,500) and WR Isaiah Spencer ($3,000) comprise the starting trio for the Hokies. Max one per lineup, and preferably none, as Virginia Tech is 102nd nationally in pass rate.
Rutgers vs. Ohio State
- Point-Spread: OSU -31.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: OSU 43.5 – Rut 12
- Weather: 48 degrees / 46% rain / 8 mph winds
Rutgers:
You won me some coin two weeks ago Mr. RB Antwan Raymond ($5,800) with your 240-yard performance against Maryland, but we don’t play any running backs against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 5th nationally in yards allowed on the ground, with just three rushing scores given up all season. QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($5,100) should also be completely removed from your queue. The Buckeyes are allowing just 7.0 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Game script will dictate Rutgers throwing the ball on Saturday and the WRs for the Knights are talented enough to at least challenge the Ohio State secondary. One of WR KJ Duff ($5,700), WR Ian Strong ($5,900) or WR DT Sheffield ($4,500) is a possibility for a lineup, but not a stackable situation like it was against Maryland two weeks ago.
Ohio State:
It’s difficult to write up some teams earlier in the week like an Ohio State because we won’t know the status of the questionable players until the morning of the game. Or in the case of Carnell Tate against Purdue…we won’t find out until it’s midway through the first quarter. QB Julian Sayin ($8,900) is a good play IF we see Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate in the lineup. The Knights are 16th among 18 teams in the B1G in yards allowed through the air and give up over 32 FPPG to quarterbacks which is by far the most on the slate.
Early lean is that we do see WR Jeremiah Smith ($8,600) and WR Carnell Tate ($7,100) as this is a tune-up for The Game next week, but in what capacity is unknown to everyone but Ryan Day and the players. WR Brandon Innis ($4,500) got his chance as the lead dog last week, but did mostly nothing with the opportunity, catching six passes for minimal yards on 83% snaps played. TE Max Klare ($4,700) has now caught four or more passes in five of the last six games with his involvement in the offense increasing over the second half of the year. Rutgers is allowing over 11 FPPG to tight ends this season. Tight ends are averaging over 50% more fantasy production than their seasonal average when facing Rutgers this season.
CFB DFS players were on full tilt last weekend with RB Bo Jackson ($6,600) finally hitting the 100-yard bonus and finding the end-zone. That’s what happens with no CJ Donaldson in the lineup. Jackson was tied with RB James Peoples ($4,400) with four red zone carries, as Peoples took on the Donaldson role with two rushing TDs. RB Isaiah West ($4,000) continued to perform well in limited opportunities with 61 yards and a TD on eight attempts. Rutgers is dead last in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground, giving up 27 FPPG to opposing backfields. Any one of the three are playable options, so long as Donaldson is out.
Injury Notes – WR Jeremiah Smith (questionable), WR Carnell Tate (questionable), RB CJ Donaldson (questionable)
Baylor vs. Arizona
- Point-Spread: Ariz -6.5
- O/U Total: 61.5
- Implied Score: Ariz 34 – Bay 27.5
- Weather: 65 degrees / 18% rain / 5 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Bryson Washington ($5,700) Looked like a mostly healthy Bryson Washington coming out of the bye week, rushing for 97 yards on 14 carries against a very good Utah front seven. Arizona is nowhere near the level of the Utes in the front seven, specifically when dealing with multiple injuries as they were against Cincinnati. While the Wildcats are 34th in limiting explosive run plays, Arizona is just 109th in rush D success rate, which was on display on Saturday, giving up 119 yards on just 12 attempts to Tawee Walker. A mid-tier salary RB like Washington with 30-point upside is appealing on this slate specifically with the top-end options in bad matchups.
Fade – WR Ashtyn Hawkins ($4,900) Hawkins was thrown out of the game in the second half for throwing punches with a Utah defender. The assumption is that Hawkins will miss the first half on Saturday. WR Kobe Prentice ($4,000) would likely start in place of Hawkins, though his snaps have diminished in the last two games, on the field for five of the 97 offensive plays that Baylor ran against the Utes.
Pivot Play – QB Sawyer Robertson ($8,000) Accessible pricing for what is a Top 10 fantasy quarterback this season in Robertson. The Arizona defense does present challenges, being the No. 1 pass unit in the Big 12, allowing just 159 YPG through the air and 19 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. But we did just see Robertson light up a better defense in Utah last week for 400+ yards and 32 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. The good news here is that with some defections at receiver be it injury or lost playing time, we have a condensed rotation now with WR Josh Cameron ($5,800), WR Kole Wilson ($4,100) and Ashtyn Hawkins. The trio combined for 371 of the 430 receiving yards last week for Baylor, with no other wide receiver for the Bears having more than 10 yards. We’ve seen some strong performances from opposing Big 12 receivers against Arizona in the last month. Amare Thomas had 69 yards and two scores. Cincinnati’s Jeff Caldwell found the end-zone last week. BYU’s Parker Kingston went for 100+. And then Colorado’s Omarion Miller had nearly 100 yards with two scores.
TE Michael Trigg ($5,600) continues to hold the mantle as the No. 1 TE in college fantasy football, having scored 0.9 more fantasy points than Houston’s Tanner Koziol. Arizona has done an excellent job against tight ends this season, though, with just one (Koziol) scoring double-digit fantasy points against them.
Injury Notes – WR Ashtyn Hawkins (suspension?)
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – RB Kedrick Reescano ($4,200) Baylor now ranks 127th nationally in yards allowed per game on the ground after Utah rolled up 380 yards rushing with five touchdowns on Saturday night, averaging almost nine YPC as a team. Reescano has been the most consistent Arizona running back in the second half of the season, scoring four TDs in his last five games after a season-high 94 yards vs. Cincinnati. We’ll throw out RB Quincy Craig ($4,100) as a potential option as well, with 101 yards rushing over the last two games, and two receptions in each of the last three weeks. PFF shows that Craig actually started the game against the Bearcats.
Fade – WR Javin Whatley ($4,600) Whatley is still second on the team in targets (53), receptions (36) and touchdowns (4) but Chris Hunter being back in the lineup diminishes his value significantly. Whatley and Hunter essentially split snaps last week vs. Cincinnati, with Whatley finishing the game with one reception on two targets.
Bargain Bin – WR Tre Spivey ($3,300) DK refuses to increase Spivey’s salary, though he hasn’t given them much of a reason lately with just eight combined fantasy points scored in the last two games. Spivey’s playing time took a small hit with Chris Hunter’s return to the lineup, but led all boundary receivers for Arizona in routes run last Saturday, playing 58% of the team’s snaps. Spivey doesn’t need high volume targets to hit value, averaging over 21 YPC on the season.
Pivot Play – QB Noah Fifita ($6,400) If there’s a week to play Noah Fifita, this would be the one with Arizona projected to score almost five touchdowns according to Vegas, and a relatively narrow spread. Baylor is better against the pass than the run, ranked 6th in the conference in yards allowed, but quarterbacks are averaging over 23 FPPG this season against the Bears. If Fifita gets 23 fantasy points, he’s paid off this $6.4k price tag.
Best of the Rest – WR Kris Hutson ($5,500) Team leader in targets (63), receptions (41) and routes run despite playing in only nine of Arizona’s 10 games this season. A bit gunshy to roster Hutson after Baylor held Utah’s Ryan Davis, another slot receiver, to just one catch on two targets last week. That was also a game where Utah was ahead the entire content and ran the ball up, down and all around. Arizona isn’t built that way and will need to throw.
Injury Notes – n/a
Connecticut vs. Florida Atlantic
- Point-Spread: UConn -7.5
- O/U Total: 66.5
- Implied Score: UConn 37 – FAU 29.5
- Weather: 80 degrees / 2% rain / 9 mph winds
Connecticut:
Top Play(s) – WR Skyler Bell ($7,400) What did we do to get so lucky to have UConn on the Main Slate twice now this season!?! All your lineup builds start with Bell who remains the No. 1 wide receiver in all of college fantasy football, having scored 40 more fantasy points than the next closest wideout in the country (Danny Scudero). Bell continues to lead the country in receptions (93) and touchdowns (13), while tied with Scudero for the nation lead in targets (127).
Bargain Bin – WR Reymello Murphy ($4,200) Since Week 4 of the regular season, Murphy has had 237 receiving yards. 110 of those came against Duke the last time the Huskies were on the Main Slate. In six of the eight contests since Week 4, Murphy has posted less than 20 receiving yards. He’s also not min priced like he was two Saturdays ago.
Pivot Play – RB Cam Edwards ($6,900) Skyler Bell gets the headlines, and deservedly so, but technically Cam Edwards has the better matchup of the two on Saturday. FAU is abysmal against the run, ranked 126th in rush D success rate, 124th in explosive runs allowed and have given up the most rushing TDs (28) in the American Conference. The last eight opponents FAU has faced this season have scored at least two rushing TDs in their matchups with the Owls. My lineup builds will start with Bell and will be stacking with Edwards.
Best of the Rest – QB Joe Fagnano ($8,500) Fagnano is probably the least appealing of UConn’s Big 3, but it’s possible to play all three in a lineup with a 37-point implied team total. Fagnano had his worst performance in over a month and a half last week vs. Air Force, scoring just 12 fantasy points with 155 yards passing. Get-right opportunity on Saturday as Florida Atlantic allows over 27 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – TE Juice Vereen (questionable) We’ll be monitoring this one on Saturday morning. Sounds like Vereen was held out of precaution against Air Force after suffering a lower-body injury vs. Duke. The NC State transfer has caught a TD in each of the last four games he’s played in.
Florida Atlantic:
Top Play(s) – WR Easton Messer ($7,000) Messer hasn’t been the fantasy league winner that Skyler Bell is but has lived up to his offseason hype as a PPR monster, ranked second in the country with 84 receptions on 110 targets and five touchdowns. Three of those touchdowns have come in the last two weeks. Bell is the No. 1 WR option on the slate, but Messer is right there as the secondary selection.
Fade – RB Gemari Sands ($4,800) We preferably don’t want any exposure to the FAU backfield as the Owls are 134th nationally in run play percentage. But if forced to choose one of the two running backs in the FAU backfield, RB Kaden Sheids-Dutton ($4,600) is easily the better option. KDS holds a 5-0 advantage in rushing touchdowns, a 16-9 advantage in red zone opportunities and averages almost a yard more per carry than his counterpart.
Bargain Bin – WR Dominique Henry ($3,400) Surprised to see such a pricing discrepancy between the WR2 and WR4 for FAU, because on the stat sheet, the difference isn’t that large. Henry ranks third on the team in routes run, fourth in targets (50) and fifth in receptions (28), coming off his best outing of the year with 78 yards and six catches on eight targets vs. Tulane. Multiple FAU receivers in a lineup is a plausible strategy given the Owls lead the country in pass attempts per game (47.6).
Pivot Play – QB Caden Veltkamp ($8,000) Veltkamp hits value most weeks because of sheer volume when throwing the ball 45-50 times a game. UConn is better against the pass than the run, ranked 50th nationally in yards allowed through the air, and giving up just 17.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. No issues playing Veltkamp, but the more advisable strategy is to roster 1-2 FAU receivers and not stack the entire passing game.
Best of the Rest – WR Asaad Waseem ($5,800) or WR Jayshon Platt ($5,500) Numbers are almost identical for FAU’s second and third leading receivers, with the same number of targets (66) and receiving touchdowns (5). Waseem holds a bit more value in that he’s converting on 75% of his targets, resulting in more receptions (49). Platt is the bigger threat of the two down the field, averaging 15.4 YPC with a 13.7 aDOT. Arguments can be made for any of the top four WRs for FAU.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas vs. Texas
- Point-Spread: Tex -10.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: Tex 34 – Ark 23.5
- Weather: 73 degrees / 22% rain / 6 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Taylen Green ($7,500) I’d be a little concerned about motivation if wanting to roster any Arkansas players on Saturday. 2-8 record, no hope for a bowl game, losing probably the final winnable game on the schedule last week vs. LSU, and now going on the road to Texas. That said, Vegas projects at least three touchdowns for the Razorbacks on Saturday and the Longhorn defense has crumbled in the last month. 40 fantasy points allowed to Gunner Stockton and Diego Pavia in consecutive games, while also giving up 381 yards and four touchdowns to Mississippi State’s Blake Shapen.
Bargain Bin – WR Raylen Sharpe ($4,100) Sharpe has been Arkansas’ best wide receiver over the last three weeks with 60 or more yards in each of the last three games. The cost-saving route of rostering Sharpe over O’Mega Blake might be the more fiscally responsible move here.
Pivot Play – Mike Washington Jr. ($6,100) Washington continues to run well even in this lost season, averaging over six yards per carry in four out of his last five games. Just two carries went to Arkansas RBs that weren’t named Washington with Braylen Russell missing the LSU game. The Texas run D is the strength of the unit, ranking 20th in success rate, No. 1 nationally in limiting explosive run plays and allowing just 17 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – WR O’Mega Blake ($6,500) Blake remains the team leader in targets (77), receptions (55) and touchdowns (4). His time on the field hasn’t fluctuated game to game, but production seems to be on the decline with just 35 receiving yards over the last two games. Just wonder if the wear and tear of the season is starting to impact Blake’s on-field production.
Injury Notes – RB Braylen Russell (questionable)
Texas:
Top Play(s) – QB Arch Manning ($9,000) While Texas is out of the SEC title game race and no longer in consideration for the College Football Playoff, this feels like a get-right spot against a down-trodden opponent. Quite frankly, Arch and Steve Sarkisian need a big performance on offense to silence the outside noise after last week’s blowout to Georgia. Thankfully, Arkansas provides that opportunity, ranked 15th among 16 teams in the SEC in yards allowed through the air, and 27 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Fade – CJ Baxter ($4,300) Single-digit carries in all three games since returning from injury, averaging less than four yards per carry against all three opponents. Texas should find some running room against the Arkansas defense, but there’s several more appealing RBs in Baxter’s price range like Kedrick Reescano or NaQuari Rogers.
Bargain Bin – WR Emmett Mosley ($4,400) or WR DeAndre Moore Jr. ($3,900) 191 of Mosley’s 267 receiving yards this season have come in the last three games with three touchdowns in that span. Moore was targeted a season-high eight times in the loss to Georgia last week. Also in the last three games, Texas is averaging 41 pass attempts and 311 yards per game. Every Texas starting WR is in play for this week.
Pivot Play – WR Ryan Wingo ($6,600) Same story as the Georgia matchup and every Texas game before that. The spend-down options look incredibly appealing, but at the end of the day, it’s usually Ryan Wingo that has the most fantasy points among the Texas wideouts. That was the case against Georgia, with Wingo finishing with 9-62-1 on a team-best 13 targets. An opposing WR facing Arkansas has gone over 80+ yards in seven of the last eight games, so one of Wingo, Mosley or Moore should be in most / every lineup created.
Best of the Rest – RB Tre Wisner ($5,900) Fewer than 100 yards on the ground for the Longhorns in four of the last six games. Texas is 87th in line yards, 116th in standard down success rate, 88th in rush success rate and 12th in the SEC in yards per game on the ground. The only reason to consider Wisner is the defense across from him, where the Razorbacks are 129th in stuff rate, 133rd in rush D success rate and giving up over 34 FPPG to opposing backfields this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt
- Point-Spread: Van -10
- O/U Total: 54
- Implied Score: Van 32 – UK 22
- Weather: 64 degrees / 22% rain / 10 mph winds
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Seth McGowan ($5,800) A healthy McGowan is the catalyst for the Kentucky offense with five rushing touchdowns in the last two games and ranks third in the SEC with 12 scores on the year. Vandy is better against the run than the pass, tied for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed in the conference, but also just gave up 210 yards on the ground to Auburn last time out – 115 of which came from Jeremiah Cobb.
Fade – WR Ja’Mori Maclin ($4,200) Maclin has seen his playing time steadily decline over the second half of the season, now fifth on the team in routes run. Against Florida two weeks ago, Maclin played just a handful of snaps and was targeted just one time. Same story against Tennessee Tech last Saturday, playing just 22% of the team’s snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Cutter Boley ($5,000) Whoever is coaching Kentucky in 2026 has a building block at quarterback in Cutter Boley. I lean towards no for rostering Boley on this slate, simply because there’s a better option at $4.8k in Kyron Drones. That said, Boley is facing a defense that is 14th in the SEC in yards allowed through the air and just gave up 353 yards and two touchdowns to Ashton Daniels.
Best of the Rest – WR Kendrick Law ($4,600) Law now has more than double the number of receptions (47) as the next closest Kentucky receiving, coming off a career day with 11-124-0 on 11 targets. An 85% catch rate on 55 total targets with one drop is incredible efficiency for a receiver. Vanderbilt is allowing just over 40 FPPG to opposing WR groups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($9,200) Outside of maybe Ohio State, Vanderbilt is one of, if not the most efficient offense in the country. 3rd in success rate, 18th in line yards, 2nd in points per opportunity, 12 in standard down success rate. No. 1 in passing down success rate. Across the board, Vanderbilt is at or near the top in most advanced offensive metrics, and so there’s a reason why Diego Pavia is playable every week, regardless of the matchup.
Fade – RB Makhilyn Young ($5,300) Help me out here. So, Kyron Drones is $4.8k, yet we have a running back in Makhilyn Young that has rushed for 13 total yards over the last two weeks combined and is $5.3k. Make it make sense.
Pivot Play – WRs. Kentucky has scored 30+ points in three of its last four games and projected to score at least three touchdowns this week. Why does that matter? The chances decline that Vanderbilt can just ground and pound their way to victory and increases the chances that the Dores possibly throw for 300+ as they’ve done in each of the last two games. Don’t stack the Vanderbilt WRs but having one of WR Junior Sherrill ($4,100) or WR Tre Richardson ($4,100) is reasonable.
Best of the Rest – TE Eli Stowers ($5,200) Stowers has looked like the top 2 fantasy tight end he was expected to be in the preseason after consecutive 100-yard performances against Texas and Auburn. No tight end has scored double-digit fantasy points against Kentucky this season, but that has more to do with the lack of productive TEs in the SEC this year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke vs. North Carolina
- Point-Spread: Duke -6.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: Duke 29 – UNC 22.5
- Weather: 65 degrees / 34% rain / 7 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – QB Darian Mensah ($6,300) Mensah is listed as Duke’s top play because of salary and salary alone. For as many jokes that have been made about the North Carolina program under Bill Belichick, the Heels are playing some defense. Just a single ACC opponent has thrown more than one passing touchdown in their matchup vs. UNC. The Heels are now 7th in the ACC in yards allowed through the air and 54th nationally in pass D success rate.
Fade – RB Nate Sheppard ($7,800) Sheppard made sense as the highest-priced RB option a few weeks ago vs. UConn. Not against the UNC run defense that is better than advertised, ranked 54th in rush D success rate and 20th nationally at limiting explosive run plays. Wake Forest did run for 200+ yards against UNC last week, but 52 yards came from Robby Ashford (Darian Mensah doesn’t run) and 51 more yards came from WR Carlos Hernandez on a fluke play. Just two ACC opponents ran for more than 100 yards against the Heels this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Jeremiah Hasley ($3,600) Hasley has been a starter most of the year but primarily as a blocker. Not the case with the last three games with 191 of his 273 receiving yards this season have come in that stretch. North Carolina is allowing around 11 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – WR Que’Sean Brown ($5,100) Last week we touted Cooper Barkate and that play fell on its face. We’re going with Duke’s starting slot receiver this week after looking back at some recent North Carolina games. Stanford slot receiver Caden High caught 10 passes for 100+ yards. Cal slot man Jacob de Jesus posted 12 receptions on 17 targets in his matchup against the Heels. And last week, Carlos Hernandez, who splits time outside and in the slot, had over 100 yards on eight catches.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Shipp ($5,800) or WR Kobe Paysour ($4,600) It was a down week for Shipp on the stat sheet vs. Wake Forest, but the sophomore receiver still played 97% of the team’s snaps and was targeted 8 times. Same goes for Paysour, who was targeted nine times for the second straight game. The Duke secondary is vulnerable, as showcased last week with a less than 100 percent Chandler Morris throwing for 316 yards and two scores. WRs are averaging over 47 FPPG against the Blue Devils this season, so having one of Shipp or Paysour in a lineup is viable.
Fade – RBs. Just twice this season has UNC gone consecutive games with having the same leading rusher. And in the last two weeks, no UNC back has posted more than 30 rushing yards in a game. FWIW, the Duke run defense is struggling over the last month, allowing 156 or more yards to its last four opponents, with both UVA and Connecticut averaging over five yards a carry in their respective matchups. Just can’t trust who Belichick will give the most rushing attempts to on a weekly basis.
Best of the Rest – QB Gio Lopez ($5,500) I miss the top 25 fantasy QB version of Gio Lopez back at South Alabama when times were fun. Now, Lopez is being forced to play in structure and that’s just not his game. Lopez has failed to score 20 fantasy points in all but one game this season against an FCS opponent. This is clearly a risk to play Lopez on a Main Slate, but possibly one worth taking? Duke has allowed 300+ passing yards in each of the last three games, giving up over 25 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. On paper it’s a very good matchup.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC vs. Oregon
- Point-Spread: Oreg -10
- O/U Total: 59
- Implied Score: Oreg 34.5 – USC 24.5
- Weather: 49 degrees / 26% rain / 4 mph winds
USC:
Fade – QB Jayden Maiava ($7,000) Oregon’s pass defense stats are undoubtedly skewed by the list of terrible quarterbacks the Ducks have faced this season. But I’d still suggest not playing Maiava on a main slate against an opponent that has given up just six passing touchdowns all season and allowing 7.0 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Lake McRee ($3,700) McRee is essentially USC’s WR3 this season, ranked third in targets (42), receptions (24), touchdowns (2) and routes run. At least two catches in every game played this season.
Pivot Play – RB King Miller ($7,500) Oregon is very good against the run, but not a dominant group, ranked 6th in the B1G in yards given up on the ground and just 57th in rush D success rate. This might be the last game of the season that Miller dominates the touch share in the backfield, with Waymond Jordan back in pads during practice this week. Lincoln Riley already stated Jordan is not expected to play, so we anticipate another 20+ touches for Miller on Saturday. The concern is that backup Bryan Jackson found the end-zone twice last week vs. Iowa instead of Miller, as both received two red zone carries.
Best of the Rest – WR Makai Lemon ($7,600) or WR Ja’Kobi Lane ($6,200) Notice that we don’t have a top play for USC? It’s just tough to see the rationale playing any of the options in this matchup, given the other players available around these salaries. Lemon leads the B1G in receptions (71) and yards (1,090) but his home – road splits are concerning. Six of Lemon’s eight touchdowns this season have come at home, while also averaging almost 60 fewer receiving yards outside of the state of California. The best argument in favor of either Lemon or Lane is we know where the ball is going in this offense. The WR duo combines for 49% of the target share, 51% of the receiving production and 12 of the 19 receiving touchdowns.
Injury Notes – RB Waymond Jordan (out)
Oregon:
Fade – RB Noah Whittington ($7,100) Production is far too spread out to spend up for Whittington at $7.1k here. Backup RB Jordan Davison ($6,100) is $1k cheaper yet now has more than double the number of rushing touchdowns (12) that Whittington does. Spending down for Davison or going cheap with RB Dierre Hill Jr. ($4,200) are the better plays with how spread out the carries are in the Oregon backfield. The Ducks should be able to run on USC, as the Trojans are 124th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Jeremiah McClellan ($4,400) or WR Malik Benson ($4,300) Writing this as of Wednesday, no official reports as to the status of Dakorien Moore or Gary Bryant Jr. for this weekend. McClellan and Benson were tied for the team lead in routes run vs. Minnesota last Friday and were on the field for 2/3rds of the offensive snaps. Moore and Bryant’s status will determine our interest here.
Pivot Play – TE Kenyon Sadiq ($5,200) Sadiq is starting to turn it on a bit with 80 or more receiving yards in two of this last three games, including a perfect 8-for-8 last week with 96 yards and a score vs. Minnesota. If Oregon is down multiple receivers again on Saturday, we know where the ball is going.
Best of the Rest – QB Dante Moore ($7,700) At 19-point projection at this salary isn’t that appealing, but Oregon should be able to throw on this USC secondary that is 66th in pass D success rate and 98th at allowing explosive pass plays. USC is only giving up 19 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – WR Dakorien Moore (questionable), WR Gary Bryant Jr. (questionable)
TCU vs. Houston
- Point-Spread: Hou -1
- O/U Total: 55
- Implied Score: Hou 28 – TCU 27
- Weather: 77 degrees / 28% rain / 8 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – WR Eric McAlister ($6,700) The TCU offense is sputtering lately, mostly to do with the offensive playcalling and quarterback play (there’s going to be a coaching overhaul in the offseason). That said, McAlister is being fed the rock with double-digit targets in each of the last four games with three 100-yard receiving performances. As the last few weeks have shown, McAlister is an option whether Josh Hoover is playing well or not.
Fade – WR Jordan Dwyer ($6,300) There’s little reason why Dwyer and McAlister should be this close in salary. Dwyer has been hit or miss with his production this season, and there’s several options close in salary (McAlister / Messer) that are superior options. We don’t believe TCU will be throwing the ball 40 times on Saturday either, with how inconsistent the passing game has been in the last few weeks, so stacking TCU receivers isn’t the way to go either.
Pivot Play – RB Jeremy Payne ($4,900) Without Kevorian Barnes in the lineup, TCU is a running back by committee, and usually an ineffective one at that, so don’t feel the need to play any Horned Frog running back. If you do, Payne is the preferred choice, averaging over six yards per carry in the last two games. Teams can beat Houston on the ground, as the Cougars are 83rd in rush D success rate and giving up over 26 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Hoover ($6,700) Hoover would have been a slate lock at the start of the season if you told us he was listed at $6.7k. But not after the last three weeks where he’s thrown just two touchdowns to four interceptions and a completion percentage under 60%. There’s talk on the TCU boards about wanting to ditch Hoover after the season to pursue North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker in the portal. Maybe Hoover surprises us on Saturday, but the matchup doesn’t dictate playing him, as Houston is 7th in the B12 in yards allowed through the air, giving up just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – RB Kevorian Barnes (questionable)
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Conner Weigman ($8,600) Weigman likely goes under-owned on the slate as most will pair a Diego Pavia with a bargain option like Kyron Drones. But he has continued to be arguably the most consistent fantasy quarterback in the country, scoring 20+ fantasy points in all but two games this season – one of which he got injured. TCU is very beatable in the secondary, having allowed three of its last four opponents to throw for 296 or more yards. Each of Houston’s last four contests have been within 10 points, and this is expected to be as well against TCU with a 1-point spread. In those games, Weigman has also rushed for 98, 118, 17 and 84 yards, including two performances with 20+ rushing attempts. This is a great spot to play Weigman.
Fade – RB Dean Connors ($6,700) Connors’ appeal declines significantly if he’s going to continue to split carries with RB DJ Butler ($4,100) as they did against UCF in Week 11. Not to mention TCU’s run defense is the strength of the unit, ranked 3rd in the B12 in yards allowed on the ground and 18th nationally in limiting explosive run plays.
Bargain Bin – WR Koby Young ($3,400) The Houston passing game continues to revolve around two players, but Young has emerged as the No. 3 option once Stephon Johnson was lost for the year due to injury. Production has been minimal, but Young has been on the field 82% of the time over the last four games, including a season-high 92.5% of the offensive snaps against UCF in Week 11. WR Harvey Broussard ($3,500) is the WR3, and the team’s deep threat with a 17.9-yard aDOT.
Pivot Play – TE Tanner Koziol ($5,000) A tight end has caught a touchdown vs. TCU in each of the last three games, as the Horned Frogs are allowing over 12 FPPG to the position. The last time TCU did not give up a touchdown to a tight end was a month ago, coincidentally against the No. 1 fantasy TE in the country in Michael Trigg. Who’s the No. 2 fantasy tight end in the country this season? Tanner Koziol.
Best of the Rest – WR Amare Thomas ($6,100) There isn’t a slate where Thomas is not an option as Houston’s undisputed WR1. Between Thomas and Koziol, the top two pass-catchers for the Cougars combine for 58% of the team’s receiving yards and 13 of the 19 touchdowns. TCU is allowing over 37 FPPG to opposing WR groups this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State vs. Utah
- Point-Spread: Utah -17.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: Utah 35 – KSU 17.5
- Weather: 51 degrees / 3% rain / 3 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaron Tibbs ($4,800) Jayce Brown out for the season means Tibbs moves up the pecking order to the WR1 role. The last time Brown missed a game due to injury was Week 5 vs. Central Florida. In that game, Tibbs caught eight passes for 72 yards on a team-high 10 targets.
Fade – WR Adonis Moise ($4,500) Moise will slot into the WR2 role with Jayce Brown out for the season, as he played 53% of the snaps last week vs. Oklahoma State. That didn’t result in fantasy production, targeted just one time for minimal yardage. In the UCF matchup reference above with Brown was out previously, Moise was targeted just twice. He should be $3k, not $4.5k.
Bargain Bin – TE Garrett Oakley ($4,400) Oakley has been targeted at least seven times in four of the last five games, and that should remain the case now with Kansas State down one starting receiver heading into Saturday. Utah has fared well against tight ends this season, though, allowing just 5.0 FPPG to the position. Michael Trigg was limited to just three catches last week.
Pivot Play – RB Joe Jackson ($5,100) Better chance than not that Jackson is a non-factor on Saturday in which should likely be a double-digit win for the Utes. But you can run on Utah, ranked just 7th in the Big 12 in yards allowed on the ground. Bryson Washington nearly had 100 yards last week, averaging over six yards per carry. LJ Martin had 100+ against the Utes. It’s not the worst play.
Best of the Rest – QB Avery Johnson ($6,800) While Utah did allow 400+ passing yards last week to Sawyer Robertson, that was also a Baylor QB that had all three starting receivers available, along with the No. 1 tight end in college fantasy football. Avery Johnson has one healthy starting receiver remaining. Vegas projected Baylor to score four touchdowns last week. That 17.5 team total for Kansas State indicates what is expected from the Wildcats on Saturday. Johnson is closer to a fade than a play.
Injury Notes – WR Jayce Brown (out)
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Wayshawn Parker ($6,200) Finally some separation in the Utah backfield, with three straight 100-yard rushing performances from Parker with double-digit rushing attempts in all three games. The one downside to rostering Parker is him giving way to RB NaQuari Rogers ($4,500) in the red zone. Rogers held a 3-1 advantage in that category vs. Baylor last week – the third time that’s happened in the last four games. As a result, Parker’s upside is capped with several mouths to feed, including the QBs.
Pivot Play – WR Ryan Davis ($5,800) or TE Dallen Bentley ($4,900) Davis and Bentley combine for 56% of Utah’s receiving production, 49% of the target share and 8 of the team’s 20 receiving touchdowns. Limit one Utah pass-catcher per lineup, especially when / if Utah jumps out to an early lead which is expected as a double-digit favorite on Saturday. The Utes are 125th nationally in pass rate, throwing the ball just 39% of the time.
Best of the Rest – QBs. Even coming out of a bye week prior to the Baylor matchup, QB Devon Dampier ($7,300) is not at 100% health, and may not be the rest of the season. Kyle Whittingham called Dampier “day to day” though his comments are never to be trusted when it comes to injuries. We’ll be looking for any kind of pregame insights as to who is taking first-team snaps under center between Dampier or backup QB Byrd Ficklin ($7,200). If Dampier starts, we see both QBs. If Ficklin gets the start over an injured Dampier, wheels up.
Injury Notes – QB Devon Dampier (questionable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- WR Skyler Bell, Connecticut
- RB Cam Edwards, Connecticut
- WR Easton Messer, Florida Atlantic
- QB Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Kaytron Allen, Penn State
- QB John Mateer, Oklahoma
- QB Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
- WR Andrew Marsh, Michigan
