West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: Ok St -8.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Ok St 35.5 – WVU 27
Weather: 46 degrees / 100% rain / 11 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Greene ($6,800) If there is one positive to come out of this year for West Virginia, it’s that they look to have found their future at the QB position in Garrett Greene who’s posted back-to-back 30-point fantasy performances. Favorable matchup again this week against an Oklahoma State defense allowing over 30 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2022. Biggest concern here might just be the weather where, as of Thursday, I’m seeing 100% chance of precipitation.
Fade – RB Tony Mathis Jr. ($4,700) Best time of the year to get an extended look at some underclassmen that’ll be part of the program’s future – even though Neal Brown likely won’t be part of that himself. Mathis is expected to play Saturday but is not healthy. If you’re a RB that is not 100%, I’m not playing you.
Bargain Bin – WR Cortez Braham ($3,400) Braham’s viability for Saturday would be fully dependent on if Prather ends up playing or not. Played 43 of 69 offensive snaps last week vs. Kansas State, converting all four of his targets into receptions.
Pivot Play – RB Justin Johnson Jr. ($4,600) Sounds like we’ll get a split between Johnson and fellow sophomore Jaylen Anderson ($3,400) on Saturday with Mathis banged up. They’ll face an Oklahoma State defense that is 77th in rush play success rate and allowing 23.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – WR Sam James ($6,000) Last week I said it was debatable to claim that Sam James has been WVU’s best receiver the second half of the season. That is no longer a debate after scoring three touchdowns last week against Kansas State. Averaging 7.7 targets per game from Week’s 5-12. WR1s are averaging 24.6 FPPG against Oklahoma State this year – fourth most in the country.
Injury Notes – WR Kaden Prather ($5,100) Lot of smoking floating out there that Prather will hit the portal this offseason, though HC Neal Brown stated that the sophomore receiver didn’t play due to injury last week. He’s expected back, but I’d be VERY hesitant to play him.
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – QB Spencer Sanders ($7,900) Final home game of Sanders’ college career on Saturday, and while he’s coming off his worst performance of the season, he projects highly this week at nearly 27 fantasy points. Sanders has below average against any defense with a pulse this season, but that isn’t how we would describe West Virginia’s secondary. 108th in pass play success rate and allowing 23.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s. The Mountaineers have allowed two or more passing touchdowns in 7-of-11 games played in 2022.
Fade – RBs. If we get official word that Dominic Richardson is out, maybe our interest in Jaden Nixon or Ollie Gordon increases. But Oklahoma State hasn’t run the ball with any success the entire season, so why would it start now? The Cowboys are 110th in line yards and 108th in rush play success rate. Don’t have any confidence in whoever is in the backfield because of how poorly the OL has played. Game script played a role, but in argument for Nixon, he did have seven receptions on eight targets vs. Oklahoma.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Braydon Johnson ($6,400) No threat of Jaden Bray taking snaps away from Johnson now with the sophomore WR out for the season due to injury. With Johnson playing the entirety of the game, we got the early season production we saw back in September as Johnson posted 7-109-0 on 11 targets. West Virginia allows 23 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season – ninth most in the country.
Best of the Rest – WR Brennan Presley ($6,200) We’ll always side with the outside receivers for Oklahoma State, but Presley did have a season-high 13 targets last week vs. Oklahoma. Been a mix of outside receivers and slot receivers that have killed WVU in 2022, so from that aspect there’s not a huge difference in preference. Gavin Holmes (34 fpts), Xavier White (28 fpts) and Taye Barber (20 fpts) are all slot receivers like Presley that had big days vs. the Mountaineers. WR John Paul Richardson ($5,400) led Oklahoma State in routes run last week, and averages 6.2 targets per game.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the running back situation. Oklahoma State writers have been very good about posting inactives for the Cowboys on Twitter.
Michigan vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -7.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: OSU 32 – UM 24.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Michigan:
Here’s the situation. Both running backs are less than 100% entering Saturday. The whispers as of now are that both Blake Corum ($8,600) and Donovan Edwards ($5,600) will both suit up and play on Saturday. How effective? How many carries? Complete unknown. It does sound like Edwards is the healthier of the two at this point. RB CJ Stokes ($3,300) will likely get some run here as well, but unless more news comes out, I might fade this entire backfield because of all the uncertainty. I simply cannot play Corum at his price tag so Edwards would be choice No. 1 for me if forced to roster a Michigan running back. The Wolverines are going to have to throw the ball more than normal Saturday, but QB J.J. McCarthy ($6,900) is missing passes left and right with his inaccuracy throwing the football and the WR corps was overrated unfortunately coming into the year. Lastly on the injury front, TE Luke Schoonmaker ($3,400) is expected to return Saturday, so we’ll see both him and TE Colston Loveland ($3,300) splitting time.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($8,200) The high-level defensive stats for the Michigan secondary are very good, so this play won’t stand out to most. Third fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing WR1s. But the Michigan defensive backs are slightly above average talent-wise (outside of 5-star FR Will Johnson) and have had all sorts of fits with tall, physical receivers. Three highest scoring WRs this season vs. Michigan were Tory Horton, Sean Ryan and Keon Coleman – all standing 6-foot-1 or taller. I think Marvin Harrison Jr. can abuse this secondary if the Ohio State passing game is clicking.
Fade – Starting RBs. No inside information here, but I think its very unlikely that we see a full workload from either Miyan Williams or TreVeyon Henderson in this spot, even if they do play. And there is probably an outside chance altogether that either back suits up. Is the drop off to RB Dallan Hayden ($5,400) really that steep considering what he did last week vs. Maryland? As long as the weather is fine, Ohio State wins this game with their passing attack.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB CJ Stroud ($9,200) Probably too expensive to play here considering we have just a 21.5-point projection for this week, but I expect Ohio State to win this game through the air with all of the injuries piling up in the backfield. FWIW, Michigan has allowed the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing quarterbacks this season. Unfortunately for this Michigan fan, the weather looks pretty good for Saturday so no excuses can be used from the Ohio State side about a little wind or snow like last year.
Best of the Rest – WR Emeka Egbuka ($7,700) I think MHJr is the far better play this week over Egbuka considering which WRs have given Michigan troubles this season. The highest point total scored against Michigan this season from a slot receiver is just 13 fantasy points. Always a chance for a blowup game with a 5-star talent like Egbuka, but his production has tailed off the second half of the year. I would only put one Ohio State WR in your lineup as I don’t view this as a team stack situation.
Injury Notes – Stayed tuned to the RB situation here. My projection would be that Hayden gets the bulk of the work on Saturday, but that could change if we get some news stating otherwise.
South Carolina vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -14.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Clem 33 – SC 18.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – n/a. Going out on a limb to say last week’s performance vs. Tennessee was a mirage and won’t be replicated. Step up in class facing a Top 10 defense now on the road. Don’t have a single Gamecock projected over 17 fantasy points and the return of a few players (more on that below) muddies the waters here.
Fade – RB Marshawn Lloyd ($5,400) Sounds like South Carolina will have both Marshawn Lloyd and Christian Beal-Smith will be available on Saturday. General rule – one-game buffer for a player coming back from injury after missing the last three games. Clemson is allowing just 10 FPPG to opposing RB1s which is sixth best in the country.
Bargain Bin – WR Dakereon Joyner ($3,700) Joyner came through as a min priced play last week despite playing just 19 offensive snaps as he had two rushing touchdowns out of the wildcat formation, in addition to catching two passes on two targets.
Pivot Play – WR Antwane Wells ($5,100) Wells is coming on the last month with two 100-yard receiving performances and averaging 8.25 targets per game. Just two opposing WRs have scored more than 20 fantasy points on Clemson this season.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – Stay tuned to the RB news. Can change the dynamic of how we view TE Jaheim Bell ($4,400). Marshawn Lloyd in, and Bell goes back to tight end.
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($6,700) Realistically, I probably won’t have any Clemson exposure, but Shipley is by far the best option. South Carolina has failed to stop the run for much of the year, ranking 13th of 14 teams in the SEC in yards allowed, 115th nationally in rush play success rate and giving up over 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Whether it’s fumbles or injuries, Shipley just hasn’t given us the expected production since the Syracuse game.
Fade – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($7,400) Haven’t played DJU yet on a main slate and that will continue Saturday. Just three quarterbacks have scored more than 23 points against South Carolina this season, and the Gamecocks have held seven of its last nine opponents to under 59% completion rate.
Bargain Bin – TE Davis Allen ($4,000) Four different SEC tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points against South Carolina this season. TE1s are averaging 8.9 FPPG for the year against the Gamecocks. Allen is second on the team in receptions (32) and touchdowns (4), while third in targets and routes run in 2022.
Pivot Play – WR Antonio Williams ($5,500) The Williams play did not pan out last week with just 37 yards receiving, but the freshman slot receiver led the Tigers in targets for the second straight game. Numbers aren’t pretty but Williams has been Clemson’s most effective receiver as a freshman at 1.92 yards per route run with zero drops. Needs a heavy dose of targets to be effective, though, with an aDOT of just 6.1.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia Tech vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -36.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: UGA 42.5 – G-Tech 6
Weather: 55 degrees / 5% rain / 5 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Lowest implied total of any team on the Main Slate this entire college football season.
Georgia:
I can’t think of anything worse to do on Thanksgiving morning than trying to analyze Georgia’s offense in a massive blowout situation. Play everyone at your own risk. I’ll be completing fading Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey this week…so you know what that means. https://twitter.com/MBainbridgeCFF/status/1593602815611502594
Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison
Point-Spread: JMU -13.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: JMU 34 – CCU 20.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – n/a. You do not have to play anyone from Coastal in this matchup. The Chants will use two quarterbacks, this is a full-fledged RBBC and I don’t trust the receivers with a QB other than Grayson McCall throwing the football.
Fade – QB Jarrett Guest ($6,900) Easy decision here for the fade. Guest threw two interceptions in his previous performance vs. Southern Miss and will come off the field when they run QB Bryce Carpenter ($7,000) in wildcat formations. This offense is not the same without Grayson McCall in the lineup.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Braydon Bennett ($5,200) Bennett played just 14 snaps in his first game action of the season and didn’t do much as a runner with 14 yards on just four carries. But that electricity he can provide was evident as a pass-catcher with 72 yards on three receptions. I would assume in his second game back after a bye week last Saturday that they’ll ramp up his reps.
Best of the Rest – RB Reese White ($5,600) White probably sees very little ownership on Saturday with Bennett back, along with Bryce Carpenter vulturing carries from everyone. Not a great matchup for any Coastal rushers as James Madison is the No. 1 team in the country in rush play success rate defensively. WR Jared Brown ($6,300) had been Coastal’s best offensive player for the last two months, but he may not be as effective with Bennett back. His snap counts were cut in half vs. Southern Miss and was targeted just twice. WR Sam Pinckney ($6,900) notched his fourth 100-yard performance of the season against USM. James Madison is 10th in pass play success rate but are prone to allowing big plays. That works in favor of Pinckney with a 15.4 YPC average and aDOT of over 16 yards the last two games.
Injury Notes – n/a
James Madison:
Top Play(s) – QB Todd Centeio ($5,800) Should be priced at $7,800, not $5,800. Lock him in and worry about the rest of your lineup. Coastal Carolina allows the most yards per game through the air (277.9) in the Sun Belt.
Fade – RB Latrele Palmer ($4,700) The senior running back did have a 100-yard performance earlier in the year subbing in for Percy Ageyi-Obese but has falling out of favor and now looks to be the third-stringer behind Kaelon Black. James Madison really doesn’t rotate much in the backfield anyways.
Bargain Bin – WR Devin Ravenel ($4,400) Terrance Greene Jr. is actually cheaper here, but I think our website projection needs to be flipped to Ravenel. Last week against Georgia State, Ravenel played 74 of the 76 offensive snaps, catching five passes on a team-high six targets with a touchdown. Risky play, though, as Ravenel didn’t have a reception in any of the previous three games.
Pivot Play – RB Percy Ageyi-Obese ($5,400) Centeio will be the popular James Madison play Saturday, and for good reason but don’t forget about PAO. Ageyi-Obese’s numbers aren’t eye-popping by any stretch, but you absolutely love the floor he provides, scoring double-digit fantasy points in five of the last six games. Hardly any utilization in the passing game, but James Madison doesn’t rotate their backs much, so 15 carries for PAO is a near lock. Coastal is better at defending the run, but still ranks just 73rd in rush play success rate and allowing over 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – WR Kris Thornton ($6,200) Thornton has been plenty productive this season, averaging over 20 FPPG and has a good shot at a 1,000-yard receiving season on Saturday. The targets just haven’t been what they were earlier in the year – maybe that is somewhat due to these last stretch of opponents with above average defenses + Centeio being banged up at times. Still very clearly JMU’s top receiving option with 31% of the target share. Opposing WR1s are averaging 17.8 FPPG against Coastal this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Western Kentucky vs. Florida Atlantic
Point-Spread: WKU -7.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: WKU 34.5 – FAU 27
Weather: 81 degrees / 24% rain / 11 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – QB Austin Reed ($7,700) I feel like our projection throughout the season for Reed has always been a tad high, but as it stands now, Reed is our highest-projected player for the entire slate at just $7.7k. That’s close to lock territory at that price. FAU is 120th in pass play success rate defensively and allowing 29.0 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season.
Fade – RB Kye Robichaux ($6,600) Week 9 was the last time Western Kentucky had a running back account for 10 or more rushing attempts in a game. WKU rotates 3-4 different runners depending on the situation and play design. Zero interest in Robichaux at that salary.
Bargain Bin – RB Markese Stepp ($3,000) The 230-pound USC and Nebraska transfer has suited up the last two games with 15 rushing attempts in that span, averaging 6.5 YPC. I’d probably fade the entire WKU backfield, but Stepp’s min pricing keeps him in play. He played 32 of 89 offensive snaps vs. Auburn last week, second among running backs to only Davion Ervin-Poindexter.
Pivot Play – WR Jaylen Hall ($5,400) Game script against Auburn dictated some of this, but Hall was targeted a season-high 18 times last Saturday, hauling in eight receptions. Drops have been a killer for Hall for much of his career, but he’s starting to turn it on late in the year from a production standpoint with double-digit fantasy points in each of the last four weeks. Dare I say he’s now the second option in the passing game ahead of WR Daewood Davis ($5,900)?
Best of the Rest – WR Malachi Corley ($7,300) Corley is not Jerreth Sterns, but the sophomore slot-man has been damn good this season with 82-1,041-7, averaging 9.9 targets per game. He’s always in play as an option. TE Joshua Simon ($3,700) is far from the top 10 fantasy tight end some predicted prior to the year, but he’s still in a three-way tie for the team lead with seven receiving touchdowns. Doesn’t see a ton of action with just 24 targets for the year, but 41% of his receptions have resulted in touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida Atlantic:
Top Play(s) – RB Larry McCammon III ($4,800) Big, big game for FAU and Willie Taggart as they’re one win away from bowl eligibility, so I would expect we see the best version of Owls on Saturday. Season-low 35 yards on 14 attempts for McCammon last week in the blowout loss to Middle Tennessee. I wouldn’t designate McCammon as a bellcow, averaging just 16 attempts per game, but there really isn’t anyone else in the FAU backfield that gets consistent carries. This is an average rush defense for WKU – although maybe above average for C-USA standards – ranking 53rd in rush play success rate and allowing 16.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – n/a. I’m not jamming any FAU players in my lineups, but also not fading anyone as they’re all priced appropriately for their seasonal production. Everyone listed here for FAU is a potential option.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Same as above. Everyone is priced correctly and there aren’t any chalk freebees to be aware of.
Pivot Play – QB N’Kosi Perry ($7,200) McCammon will be the popular FAU play of the slate, but Perry is relatively cheap and comes out with a healthy 23-point projection here. Game script works in his favor as a 7-point dog. Perry has a good trio of WRs to throw to at his disposal. He can also provide a little something on the ground if given the chance with six rushing TDs. The biggest issue is how good the WKU secondary has been this year. 53rd in pass play success rate but are 6th nationally at limiting explosive plays and allow just 15.0 FPPG to opposing QB1s – 8th best in the country.
Best of the Rest – WRs. LaJohntay Wester ($6,000) would be the priority of the three with a team-leading 58 receptions, eight touchdowns and 93 targets. But Perry will spread it around amongst the top three with Je’Quan Burton ($5,300) and Jahmal Edrine ($4,900) Projections say that we should favor Edrine of the three, probably as a result of his 100-yard performance against MTSU. Edrine is averaging 6.5 targets per over the last six games. You could realistically make a case for any of the three.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -2.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: UK 23 – Lou 20.5
Weather: 57 degrees / 5% rain / 8 mph winds
Louisville:
Big story to monitor here who gets the nod at QB. I would’ve thought at the beginning of the week it was Brock Domann. Tea leaves are pointing the other way of possibly seeing QB Malik Cunningham ($7,300) as he was said to be close to playing even last week by HC Scott Satterfield. I would not feel comfortable playing him in this spot, though, as we could potentially see both quarterbacks still in that situation, and the Kentucky defense is allowing just 17.4 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. 16th best in the country in that aspect. Big price increase for RB Jawhar Jordan ($5,200) after rushing for 100+ yards in two of the last three games. UK is 30th in rush play success rate and 12th in rush play explosiveness, while also not allowing a single running back to score more than 23 fantasy points against them all year. I was in on Jordan at $3.5k last week, not $5.2k here. 31% team target share for WR Tyler Hudson ($6,700) who has now scored double-digit fantasy points in five straight games.
Kentucky:
Who knows what to expect from the Kentucky passing game, outside of Will Levis still not looking like a future first round NFL Draft pick. Mild interest in star freshman WR Barion Brown ($5,100) who posted a season-high 10-145-1 on 12 targets against Georgia last week. This is with Kentucky having its full complement on receivers as well. Why its only mild interest – Brown had just one catch on two targets the week prior. Just three receivers this season have scored 20 or more fantasy points vs. the Louisville secondary this season. And then there’s the bellcow in RB Chris Rodriguez ($6,200) who will be playing his final game in Lexington on senior day. Louisville is 33rd in rush play success rate defensively and allowing only 15.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. But the best RBs Louisville faced – Sean Tucker, Izzy Abanikanda, Will Shipley – all had productive days. Think we see 20+ carries from C-Rod as he closes out his college career.
Auburn vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Ala -22.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Ala 36 – Aub 13.5
Weather: 66 degrees / 48% rain / 8 mph winds
Auburn:
Just two options here for the Auburn side – running a naked QB Robby Ashford ($5,900) who will likely carry the ball 15-18 times on the ground, or RB1 Tank Bigsby ($5,500) who will be playing his final game in an Auburn uniform. Maybe he goes out with a bang against an unmotivated Alabama defense? Based on the CFP rankings that were released this past Tuesday, there is still the longest of longshots chance that the Tide could backdoor their way into the final four here, so Saban will have Bama ready in the rivalry game. I won’t have any exposure here.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Jase McClellan ($4,900) This is dependent on Jahmyr Gibbs not playing…which we do not know as of Friday morning writing this. Season’s best 156 yards and two touchdowns on 17 attempts last week vs. Austin Peay. He’ll split reps some with Roydell Williams but is the clear preferred option behind Gibbs. Auburn sits 11th in the SEC in yards allowed per game on the ground but have been excellent the last three weeks, allowing under three yards a carry.
Fade – QB Bryce Young ($9,300) We’ll say the same thing for Bo Nix in the Oregon section – Bryce Young could be very productive on Saturday but there’s no reason to play him at this pricing. Auburn will attempt to make this game a slog with the running game. Young may not have his best offensive weapon alongside him in Jahmyr Gibbs. And this is one of his lowest projections for the entire season.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Jermaine Burton ($6,000) Oh, now you want to do something, Jermaine? Burton has been a colossal bust in college fantasy this season where many were anticipating a 1,000-yard season. Burton won’t come close to that mark but is trending in the right direction with 12 receptions on 14 targets and three touchdowns in the last two games.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – WR Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,400) and TE Cameron Latu ($4,000) both practiced this week according to Nick Saban, but TBD on their availability. Would lean no for both, but we’ve been surprised before.
Oregon vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: Oreg -3.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Oreg 31 – Oreg St 27.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 10% rain / 4 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – n/a. Every Oregon player is priced at a point where the Ducks would need to score 40+ points Saturday for them to be viable options. That’s likely not happening a quarterback that is not 100% healthy, a running game that had all of three second half rushing yards against Utah last week and facing a defense in Oregon State that has elite secondary play and a top 20 rush defense. I won’t have many/any Oregon players in my lineups.
Fade – QB Bo Nix ($9,700) There is absolutely no way you can play Nix this week at this pricing. He barely ran at all last week with his injured foot and don’t anticipate that changing much on Saturday. Oregon State’s secondary is near elite, ranking 24th in success rate and 9th in explosiveness. Nix could be productive Saturday, but you need 40+ fantasy points at this pricing. He ain’t getting that.
Bargain Bin – WR Dont’e Thornton ($4,200) Now that was the Thornton we expected from the onset of the season as we did prefer him over Troy Franklin initially. 148 receiving yards and a touchdown on six targets as the 6-foot-5 sophomore saw his most extended playing time of the season. All three starting receivers for Oregon played at least 77% of the offensive snaps last week so there was very little, if any, rotation among the wideouts.
Pivot Play – WR Kris Hutson ($5,500) We love that Oregon is not rotating in any backup receivers, so we know exactly where the ball is going when Nix drops back to throw. 50 or more receiving yards in five of the last six games for Hutson, who was targeted a season-high 10 times last week vs. Utah. If the running game for Oregon struggles again, the Oregon receivers become better plays.
Best of the Rest – RBs. We’re still getting the 50-50 split between Bucky Irving ($5,900) and Noah Whittington ($5,000), coming off one of Oregon’s worst rushing performances of the year against Utah where the Ducks managed just three rushing yards in the second half. And the thing is…Oregon State is better at stopping the run. RB1s are averaging just 13.9 FPPG against the Beavers this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon State:
Before looking at salaries, I thought we might have two options from Oregon State here, but why in the world is WR Treshaun Harrison at $7.6k? Did the naming convention confuse him for Marvin Harrison Jr? All we care about here from the Oregon State side is freshman phenom RB Damien Martinez ($5,200) who is still underpriced for a running back that has five straight 100-yard performances now. Last Oregon State player to reach that feat was Steven Jackson back in 2003. Undoubtedly Oregon’s strength on defense this season is stopping the run, ranking 35th in rush play success rate and allowing only 16.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s. I still think the Beavers will be able to run on the Ducks with one of the better offensive lines in the country – 17th in line yards and 16th nationally in rush play success rate. Martinez is 133 yards shy of a 1,000-yard rushing season.
Purdue vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: Purd -10.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Purd 32.5 – IU 21
Weather: 58 degrees / 5% rain / 8 mph winds
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – WR Charlie Jones ($7,400) Just 14 targets the last two weeks for Jones, which was practically his average per game entering Week 11. That said, it’s not as though Aidan O’Connell was spreading the ball around more than usual during that stretch as Jones still dominates the team target share at 30%. Indiana’s weakness on defense is the secondary, allowing 21.6 FPPG to opposing WR1s. Maybe the Hoosiers bleed clock here and throw it less than 10 times again, but the matchup dictates we lock in Jones this week.
Fade – WRs not named Charlie Jones. Take out all receptions from tight ends and running backs for Purdue, and strictly look at Boilermaker WRs. Jones has 50% of Purdue’s receiving production among wideouts and 11 of the 15 touchdowns. Not having Broc Thompson has been a killer. Tyrone Tracy was a complete bust. And nobody else has stepped up.
Bargain Bin – Backup RBs. This is all dependent on Devin Mockobee’s status this week (more on that below). Dylan Downing ($3,700) and Kobe Lewis ($3,300) stepped up in place of Mockobee vs. Northwestern last Saturday and combined for 97 yards on 30 rushing attempts. Should Mockobee sit, these two would be options…but probably popular ones at their pricing. Indiana is allowing 20.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are giving up over six yards a carry the last two weeks.
Pivot Play – QB Aidan O’Connell ($6,700) O’Connell has not lived up to expectations this season as a Top 20 fantasy quarterback we had him projected at, averaging just under 20 fantasy points a game for the season. I do this AOC could go out with a bang this week facing an Indiana secondary that is 127th in pass play success rate and has allowed six QBs this season to score 30 or more fantasy points. If Purdue is down their starting RB too, that could result in more pass attempts.
Best of the Rest – TE Payne Durham ($5,500) Similar to seemingly every other position, Indiana can’t defend tight ends either. Five different tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Hoosiers this season. Durham is second on the team behind Charlie Jones in practically every receiving category.
Injury Notes – RB Devin Mockobee ($6,000) No official update for Mockobee this week who is/was in concussion protocol and is officially questionable for Saturday. Guess here is that he does not play.
Indiana:
QB Dexter Williams ($5,900) will get the nod again Saturday so we can dismiss any of the Indiana pass-catchers as the Hoosiers attempted just seven passes in the win over Sparty last week. Williams ripped off a 34-yard touchdown run immediately against MSU and did top 100 rushing yards on 11 carries, but Indiana really spread the ball around on the ground between the QB and running backs Shaun Shivers ($5,800), Josh Henderson ($5,400) and freshman Jaylin Lucas ($4,200). I do think there is a world where Williams can hit 20 fantasy points this week but we’ll likely need more than seven pass attempts and 11 carries from him. Just look at the list of QBs that have scored 30+ fantasy points against Purdue this season – Sean Clifford, Taulia Tagovailoa, Garrett Shrader and N’Kosi Perry. Not exactly a list of Heisman hopefuls there. The Boilermakers allow 16.0 FPPG to opposing RBs, so there is some mild interest here in Shivers (but not much).
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -3.5
O/U Total: 35.5
Implied Score: Wisc 19.5 – Minn 16
Weather: 51 degrees / 0% rain / 16 mph winds
Minnesota:
Funny how RB Mo Ibrahim ($7,400) is the only running back among the top seven on DraftKings that doesn’t have a questionable tag listed next to him. This is not the dominant Wisconsin defense of year’s past and Big Mo has proven to be matchup proof from a fantasy standpoint (unless he’s mysteriously held out like he was vs. Purdue earlier in the year). Lock in Ibrahim in your lineup and build it out from there.
Wisconsin:
If we get word that Braelon Allen ($7,000) is officially OUT, then I’ll have some interest here with backup RB Ches Mellusi ($3,800) who ran it 21 times last week vs. Nebraska in relief of Allen. This isn’t the greatest matchup either against a Minnesota run defense that is allowing just 12.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. I wouldn’t play Allen even if he does suit up and play as he’s been less than 100% for about a month now.
Utah vs. Colorado
Point-Spread: Utah -29.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Utah 41 – Col 11.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 5% rain / 3 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Tavion Thomas ($6,100) Outside shot still for Utah to make the Pac-12 title game, but the Utes are not in control of their own fate as an Oregon win would lock them into a spot vs. USC. Both teams play at the same time Saturday so I would expect the Utes to go all out in order to secure a victory. I never feel confident rostering Tavion Thomas in a DFS lineup, but he has been seeing the bulk of the carries the last two games. If he gets 15-20 on Saturday, Thomas could break the slate against a Colorado defense that is allowing 25.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season – second most in the country.
Fade – Pass-catchers not named Vele or Kincaid. 49% of the team target share belong to Devaughn Vele and Dalton Kincaid who combined for 24 of the 36 targets last week vs. Oregon.
Bargain Bin – WR Money Parks ($3,400) Extreme, extreme longshot here, but these blowout situations late in the year always provide opportunities for the staff to get extended looks at some of the underclassmen they’ll depend on in future years. Parks has been targeted four times in each of the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB Micah Bernard ($5,600) Very unlikely I go here, but Bernard did split snaps with Tavion Thomas last week against Oregon, though the carry distribution was very one-sided. Blowout scenario so Bernard should get 8-10 carries at minimum I would think, plus his utilization in the passing game. Longshot scenario – Thomas just locked in his bid to the East-West Shrine game and may not want to risk injury.
Best of the Rest – QB Cam Rising ($8,800) A 22.9-point projection at this pricing means we’re likely out on Rising here. But everyone else will be of the same mindset too. And as we mentioned, Utah still has something to play for here. In the last blowout situation against Stanford two weeks back, Rising went for 23 fantasy points, throwing three touchdowns. Doubt he runs much, as he hasn’t the last three games (two of them being blowouts), so you will need Rising to throw for at least three scores as a bare minimum.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado:
First time all year I think we’ve had a team on the Main Slate that we don’t have a player projected to score more than nine fantasy points. And Colorado has been on the slate A LOT this season.
Iowa State vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -9.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: TCU 28.5 – ISU 19
Weather: 60 degrees / 62% rain / 18 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Hutchinson ($8,000) 20 fantasy points is a lock for Hutchinson every week as the nation’s leader in targets and receptions. Can he get us 30 fantasy points at this pricing is the question. Just one receiver all season has scored 30 fantasy points against TCU this season (Jake Bailey, SMU). And only two wideouts have scored more than 20 fantasy points.
Fade – RB Cartevious Norton ($4,800) The 4-star FR has gotten the majority of the work the last few games since taking over for the injured Jirehl Brock, but it was interesting that backup Eli Sanders got some run late last week. Regardless, Iowa State’s offensive line is atrocious from a run blocking standpoint that I doubt even Bijan Robinson could succeed back there (joking, kinda). 124th in line yards, 104th in stuff rate and 125th in rush play success rate.
Bargain Bin – TE Deshawn Hanika ($3,300) First six games for Hanika – five receptions on seven targets. Last five games – nine receptions on 14 targets. Had a season-high three receptions on five targets in the loss to Texas Tech last week. TCU is allowing the second most fantasy points in the country to opposing TE1s this season.
Pivot Play – WR Jaylin Noel ($4,800) Seven receivers have scored 15 or more fantasy points against TCU this season. Five of those seven play in the slot. 81% of Noel’s routes run this season have come in the slot. Noel averages 6.9 targets per game, but his ceiling is capped, averaging just 10.0 YPC and an aDOT of only 6.5.
Best of the Rest – QB Hunter Dekkers ($5,900) Iowa State is averaging six more passing attempts per game this season than they did a year ago because of their struggles on the ground. Hence why Iowa State is having a down season, because giving Dekkers more attempts to throw the football isn’t a good thing, as proven by his performance this season. The TCU defense is 22nd in pass play success rate defensively and allowing only 22.4 FPPG this season. There are better options at or around Dekkers’ salary on the slate.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Walking wounded for TCU. WR Quentin Johnston ($6,800) hasn’t been fully healthy in about three weeks, though I assume he’ll play as he’s just “toughed it out” every week per Sonny Dykes. RB Kendre Miller ($6,900) was hit hard in the third quarter vs. Baylor and did not return. He practiced as of Tuesday so would expect him to play. Miller’s been matchup proof for much of the year but will face an Iowa State defense that allows just 11.0 FPPG to opposing running backs. WR Taye Barber ($5,700) did not practice Tuesday. WR Derius Davis ($6,000) did not play vs. Baylor but did practice Tuesday and sounds like he’ll be available. Because of this uncertainty, I’m nervous to roster anyone on the TCU side here. Could run QB Max Duggan ($8,100) naked, but Iowa State is equally as good against the pass, giving up just 16.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. I’m expecting a low-scoring affair here in a game I’d rather watch from a neutral standpoint than for DFS.
Michigan State vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -19.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: PSU 36 – MSU 16.5
Weather: 45 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Michigan State:
Outside of Michigan and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions defense has dominated opponents, allowing just 12.8 PPG. Michigan State’s implied team total has already dropped a few points since the start of the week so bettors don’t have any confidence in this Spartans offense either. Out on both Payton Thorne and Jalen Berger this week. WR1s are averaging just 13.8 FPPG against this Penn State secondary so really isn’t necessary to roster anyone for the Green and White. Bigger athletic receivers have given Penn State the most trouble this year with Carlos Carriere (6-foot-5) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (6-foot-3) combining for 50 fantasy points. Maybe a 6-foot-4 WR like Keon Coleman ($5,800) could give this secondary some fits?
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RBs. With this season being a lost cause for MSU, in addition to the multiple suspensions to defensive players following the Michigan Stadium tunnel fallout, the run defense has fallen off a cliff. The Spartans have allowed three of its last four opponents to average over five yards a carry as a team, including four rushing scores last week to an Indiana team that can’t run the football. Only issue is you have to choose correctly when deciding between RB Kaytron Allen ($5,900) and Nick Singleton ($5,700) because it has rarely been both popping in a lineup together.
Fade – QB Sean Clifford ($7,100) Clifford hasn’t been needed with the last three Penn State games being blowouts, and its all about limiting his chances to make a game-changing mistake. The other issue is Penn State continues to get Drew Allar game reps in preparation for 2023 which dips into potential scoring opportunities for Clifford. Don’t see this game being competitive so not a ton of interest here.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($3,600) Wallace stepped into the starting lineup in place of the injured Parker Washington, playing 60% of the available offensive snaps. Not a ton of production with three catches on four targets, but he’s on the field against a suspect Michigan State secondary.
Pivot Play – WR Mitchell Tinsley ($6,100) Numbers didn’t necessarily change for Tinsley with Washington out of the lineup, catching five passes on eight targets for 63 yards which is only slightly better than his seasonal averages. WR1s average 17.7 FPPG against Michigan State this season, with four receivers scoring 26 fantasy points or more vs. the Spartans.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – n/a
