Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
- Point-Spread: GT -2.5
- O/U Total: 62.5
- Implied Score: GT 32.5 – Pitt 30
- Weather: 68 degrees / 31% rain / 5 mph winds
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – QB Mason Heintschel ($8,400) Have already bet the over on Heintschel’s passing yardage prop this week in Pitt’s most important matchup of the season to remain in the ACC title game race. Georgia Tech has allowed over 300+ passing yards in three of the last four games. Allowing Syracuse to throw for more than 200 yards in a game this season isn’t a good look either. Georgia Tech is allowing 25 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, who are also scoring 20% more than their seasonal average when facing the Yellow Jackets’ secondary.
Bargain Bin – WR Raphael Williams Jr. ($4,100) Not that Williams has been overly impressive, but this pricing is absurdly low for a receiver that leads his team in routes run and touchdowns (6), in an offense that is projected to throw for close to 300 yards on Saturday.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’Kyrian Turner ($5,500) We’ll see if Desmond Reid plays or not on Saturday, listed as questionable after suffering ANOTHER injury last week against Notre Dame. We know Turner will have a role regardless of Reid’s situation, facing the second worst run defense in the ACC in terms of yards allowed. The hope is that Reid is announced out, as Turner has shown capable of handling a full workload after rushing for 127 yards on 22 attempts three weeks ago vs. Stanford.
Best of the Rest – WR Kenny Johnson ($5,000) Expect Raphael Williams Jr. to see higher ownership because of pricing, so Johnson is a strong pivot play given he’s been targeted more this season (62) with more receptions (41) and yards (600). Just once this season have both Johnson and Williams scored double-digit fantasy points in the same game, so would lean one or the other as opposed to stacking.
Injury Notes – RB Desmond Reid (questionable)
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($9,800) King is QB8 currently in college fantasy football in points scored this season and has yet to score less than 27 fantasy points in a game since late September against Temple. Fade King at your own risk, but the argument against King is that Pitt is only allowing around 19 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Fade – RB Jamal Haynes ($5,000) We don’t normally play any running backs against Pitt’s defense unless your name is Jeremiyah Love as we saw last week. We especially don’t play running backs that have lost their starting job. While Haynes was the starting in name last week vs. Boston College, he gave way to RB Malachi Hosley ($5,400) who rushed for 105 yards on 14 attempts. Haynes should be removed from your player queue.
Bargain Bin – WR Eric Rivers ($4,500) Calling it now that Saturday will be the Eric Rivers game for Georgia Tech. Rivers has over 200 combined receiving yards over the last two weeks after putting up a season-high 119 yards on nine targets vs. Boston College. Boundary receivers have killed this Pitt secondary this season. Malachi Fields had 99 yards and two scores. Stanford’s CJ Williams had 100+ yards and a touchdown the week before that. Earlier in the year, FSU’s Micahi Danzy had 133 yards and two TDs. Pitt is 114th nationally in explosive pass plays allowed, which is great news for Rivers.
Pivot Play – WR Isiah Canion ($3,600) If not Rivers, then Canion could be in for a big game as the secondary outside receiver for GT. Canion is second on the team in routes run and leads Georgia Tech with a 14.4 YPC average and 12.9-yard aDOT. Sneaky play that will have very little ownership.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Rutherford ($4,200) Rutherford returned from injury and had an immediate impact vs. BC with 121 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Rutherford’s return bumps WR Jordan Allen ($4,000) out of the starting lineup, so we’d only choose between Rutherford, Canion and Rivers from the GT receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska vs. Penn State
- Point-Spread: PSU -9.5
- O/U Total: 43.5
- Implied Score: PSU 26.5 – Neb 17
- Weather: 40 degrees / 38% rain / 3 mph winds
Nebraska:
TJ Lateef threw just 15 passes for 205 yards in the win over UCLA two weeks ago. Half of those yards went to RB Emmett Johnson ($8,800). That’s a reflection of the entire season for the Nebraska offense, right? Everything revolves around RB1. Coming down the home stretch, the Huskers are leaning on Johnson even more in his final collegiate games, with 27, 29, and 28 rushing attempts in the last three weeks. Penn State is a below average run defense for their standards in 2025, ranked 97th in success rate, 76th in EPA per run play, and 11th in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground.
Penn State:
The only time this season that RB Kaytron Allen ($7,800) did not score a touchdown in a game was against the No. 1 run defense in the B1G in Indiana. Safe bet that Allen finds paydirt against the 14th ranked run defense in the conference. Much like Emmett Johnson, the Nittany Lions are riding their RB1 down the stretch here, averaging 23.3 carries per game over the last four weeks. The passing game has been capable enough behind Ethan Grunkemeyer that we can at least consider one of WR Devonte Ross ($4,200) or WR Trebor Pena ($4,400). Pena had a season-high 99 yards against Indiana in Week 11, while Ross caught two touchdowns in the win at Michigan State. Do NOT play multiple PSU receivers in the lineup, that’s a death sentence.
Tennessee vs. Florida
- Point-Spread: Tenn -4
- O/U Total: 57
- Implied Score: Tenn 30.5 – UF 26.5
- Weather: 71 degrees / 3% rain / 5 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – WR Braylon Staley ($5,200) There’s better QB and RB options on the slate than what Tennessee has at those positions, so Staley gets top billing for the Vols. Five or more receptions for Staley in each of the last five games with four of his six receiving touchdowns coming in the last month and a half. Slot receivers have roasted this Florida secondary in the back half of the season with both Zachariah Branch and Anthony Evans surpassing 100 receiving yards and double-digit receptions in their matchups with the Gators.
Pivot Play – RB DeSean Bishop ($6,500) or RB Star Thomas ($4,800) Neither Bishop nor Thomas will see much ownership on Saturday night with the star power at running back on this particular slate. But we all saw what Kewan Lacy did to this Florida defense a week ago, breaking school records with 224 yards and three touchdowns. The Gators are now allowing over 30 FPPG to opposing backfields, and Tennessee could be without Peyton Lewis on Saturday, meaning fewer mouths to feed.
Best of the Rest – QB Joey Aguilar ($8,600) Would go light on exposure to Aguilar this week, only pairing him in game stacks with Florida pieces in your lineups in hopes of a shootout. The Gators are 11th in yards allowed through the air but have not given up more than two passing TDs in a game all year. QBs are only averaging 17 FPPG against Florida this season.
Staley is our favorite Vol receivers, but WR Chris Brazzell ($5,800) and WR Mike Matthews ($4,800) are always in play with the condensed target share among Tennessee’s top three WRs. With Miles Kitselman being out, the next closest player to the Tennessee WRs in terms of targets is Bishop with 14. Multiple Tennessee WRs in a lineup (without Aguilar) is a potential GPP option.
Injury Notes – TE Miles Kitselman (out), RB Peyton Lewis (questionable)
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Jadan Baugh ($6,600) Bad teams with talent are tough to decipher this time of year. Florida’s season is obviously down the drain but were competitive last week on the road at Ole Miss, racking up 326 total yards of offense. Do we get that performance, or the lifeless one from the week prior against Kentucky? Baugh continues to be the bright spot of the Florida offense, rushing for 60 or more yards in six straight games with a rushing touchdown in five of the last seven. Tennessee is 94th in rush D success rate and giving up 28 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Pivot Play – QB DJ Lagway ($7,300) Do we dare risk it? Tennessee is the worst pass defense in the SEC in yards allowed per game through the air. And while the Vols haven’t allowed a passing touchdown over the last two games, New Mexico State just threw for 300+ yards against this secondary. If I make 100 lineups, I might have Lagway in one just to see the result. Hell, Cutter Boley scored 30+ fantasy points with five passing touchdowns against this secondary earlier this year. A 5-star should be capable of doing the same.
Best of the Rest – WRs. If not playing Lagway, there’s still an argument to be made that we want exposure to the Florida passing game, as the Vols allow over 48 FPPG combined to opposing WR rooms. The difficulty is choosing which Florida WR to roster. That’s a bit more complicated with WR Vernell Brown III ($5,300) expected back in the lineup after missing last week. The receiver that doesn’t seem impacted by Brown’s return would be WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($4,300) who leads all Florida receivers in routes run this season and also caught a touchdown last week vs. Ole Miss. WR Aidan Mizell ($3,600) and WR TJ Abrams ($3,200) appear to be rotating as the WR3 in the offense.
Injury Notes – WR Eugene Wilson (out), WR Dallas Wilson (out), RB Ja’Kobi Jackson (out)
California vs. Stanford
- Point-Spread: Cal -3
- O/U Total: 46
- Implied Score: Cal 24.5 – Stan 21.5
- Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
California:
Top Play(s) – RB Kendrick Raphael ($6,000) Tough to find a better fantasy running back than Raphael over the last five weeks, and he’s done so against some stout defenses in Virginia and Louisville who rank inside the top five in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground. Raphael is so appealing for two reasons – (1) he’s the only Cal running back that gets carries, and (2) his involvement in the passing game with 17 receptions over the last five weeks.
Fade – WR Jordan King ($3,500) King was solid in late October emerging as Cal’s WR3 option, but it looks like that might be over. WR Mark Hamper ($3,100) got the start over King in Week 11, running 10 more routes during the contest and was targeted 5 times, compared to only one for King. The WR3 for Cal doesn’t hold much value as it is, but I’d lean Hamper over King now.
Bargain Bin – WR Trond Grizzell ($4,200) Grizzell ranks first on the team in routes run, second in targets (59) and second in receptions (36). Most surprising to me is how a 6-foot-4 receiver like Grizzell has just two receiving touchdowns as a full-time starter over the last two seasons. Boundary receivers like Grizzell have found a good bit of success against Stanford this season, including Virginia’s Trell Harris (4-145-3), San Jose State’s Kyri Shoels (10-147-1), and just in the last game with North Carolina’s Jordan Shipp (5-83-1). I’ll go out on a ledge and predict that Grizzell has two touchdowns on the season after this game.
Pivot Play – QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele ($8,000) I prefer when Cal is NOT on DFS slates so I don’t have to spend time spelling out Sagapolutele. Matchup is fine…Stanford ranks 15th among 17 teams in the ACC in yards allowed through the air (284.5 YPG). He’s just a non-runner with a low game total on a slate that has a surplus of QB options.
Best of the Rest – WR Jacob de Jesus ($7,100) JDJ is currently tied for fourth in the country in targets (110) and receptions (72) despite only playing in 10 games. The matchup is fantastic, as Stanford allows 47 combined fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR CJ Williams ($5,100) Unlikely to have much exposure to a Stanford offense that has averaged just 14.4 PPG over the last five weeks while losing four of its last five games. Williams has been Stanford’s most consistent performer this season, closing in on 100 targets for the year with four 100-yard receiving performances in the last seven games.
Fade – QB Elijah Brown ($6,400) I’m very interested to see how the former 4-star recruit performs in the last few games of the regular season. Thought Brown’s career at the P4 level was dead in the water after losing out on the starting job to a QB who is about to enter the medical field after the season concludes. Promising signs after one game, throwing for 284 yards and a touchdown against UNC in his first start of 2025. With that said, it’s the same argument against Brown that we had for JKS above – low game total and a negative rusher at QB.
Bargain Bin – WR Caden High ($4,500) or WR Bryce Farrell ($3,400) No rotation at all at receiver for Stanford – the trio of Williams, High and Farrell rarely leave the field. High starts in the slot, and has had a couple of boom weeks this season, including 102 yards and 10 receptions on 13 targets this past week against North Carolina? Any coincidence that High has been targeted 18 times over the last two weeks with primarily Elijah Brown at quarterback? Things that make you go, “hmm.”
Pivot Play – RB Micah Ford ($5,200) Stanford is the worst rushing team in the ACC, but we saw a healthy Micah Ford last time out against UNC get 17 rushing attempts and was targeted three times in the passing game. Teams can run on Cal, ranked 114th nationally in rush D success rate and 13th in the ACC in yards per game allowed.
Best of the Rest – TE Sam Roush ($5,600) Never wrong, just early. 33 of Roush’s 43 receptions this season have come in the last five games as he’s performed like the top 15 fantasy tight end we expected him to be in the preseason. Cal has done a sensational job this season, though, against tight ends, allowing just 5.3 FPPG to the position, which is the best mark in the ACC.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado State vs. Boise State
- Point-Spread: BSU -16.5
- O/U Total: 44.5
- Implied Score: BSU 30.5 – CSU 14
- Weather: 48 degrees / 1% rain / 3 mph winds
Colorado State:
This team has called it quits for four weeks now, averaging 11.5 points per game over the last month. We’d strongly advise against having any Colorado State players in lineups, but three potential options to choose from. RB Lloyd Avant ($4,700) is the full-time starter at running back now that Jalen Dupree has entered the transfer portal. Boise State just allowed over 270 yards on the ground to San Diego State last week, and the Broncos are 134th in explosive run plays given up. WR Tay Lanier ($3,400) has led CSU in routes run over the last four weeks with 13 of his 21 catches coming in that span. TE Rocky Beers ($4,700) has caught a touchdown with 60+ receiving yards in each of the last two games. CSU has had some elite fantasy tight ends in the past with Dallin Holker and Trey McBride.
Boise State:
Over / Under 50.5 rushing attempts for Boise State on Saturday? The Broncos have barely thrown the ball since Maddux Madsen went down with a season-ending injury, and likely won’t have to throw to beat Colorado State as 16.5-point favorites. RB Dylan Riley ($6,800) and RB Sire Gaines ($5,700) will get double-digit carries on Saturday; it’ll be a matter of who finds the end-zone between the two. In the last three games, Gaines holds a 12-3 advantage in red zone touches over Riley.
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
- Point-Spread: Illini -7.5
- O/U Total: 40.5
- Implied Score: Illini 24 – Wis 16.5
- Weather: 42 degrees / 12% rain / 5 mph winds
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Hank Beatty ($4,900) We’re back to September pricing for Beatty as his production has declined over the last month with fewer than 50 receiving yards in three of his last four games. While the Badgers do a good job of limiting explosive pass plays, Wisconsin is also 130th in pass D success rate. Beatty scores his fantasy points on volume, not deep shots down the field, with five or more catches in all but two games this season. The concern with Beatty is Illinois not needing to force anything in the passing game vs. the inept Wisconsin offense.
Fade – QB Luke Altmyer ($8,100) See last sentence above why we’re not in on Altmyer here. This doesn’t figure to be a shootout of any kind, and Wisconsin has limited four of its last six opponents to one passing touchdown or fewer. The only two QBs in that stretch to throw for more than two touchdowns – Heisman Trophy contenders Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza.
Bargain Bin – WR Collin Dixon ($3,400) or WR Hudson Clement ($4,000) A takeaway for me in this era of the transfer portal is that production isn’t always immediate when a player lands at a new school in a new situation. Clement is evidence of that. We knew he was talented, but sometimes it takes a minute to adjust to your surroundings. He’s adjusted it appears, with 156 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games. Dixon was limited to just one receiving yard in the blowout win over Maryland but had caught a TD pass in each of the three games prior.
Pivot Play – RB Kaden Feagin ($5,000) or RB Ca’Lil Valentine ($4,900) Would not stack the Illinois backfield but could play one of Valentine or Feagin who combined for 146 yards on 34 attempts in the win over Maryland. Game script probably plays out similarly on Saturday with Illinois as a touchdown favorite. Feagin is the preferred choice of the two, holding a 42-16 advantage over Valentine in red zone opportunities.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin:
When the top 10 stories on a team page on 247Sports or On3 are about basketball and recruiting, that’s an instant signal to fade. TE Lance Mason ($3,700) has caught a touchdown in two of the last three games. RB Darrion Dupree ($4,600) likely starts at running back because there’s nobody left in the Wisconsin backfield that’s healthy, but he hasn’t scored more than two fantasy points in a game since mid-September. That’s the absolute extent of our interest, and we dedicated way too many words than Wisconsin deserves.
Arizona State vs. Colorado
- Point-Spread: ASU -7
- O/U Total: 49
- Implied Score: ASU 28 – Col 21
- Weather: 44 degrees / 1% rain / 3 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jeff Sims ($7,700) Sims has been outstanding in the last two games, compiling over 80 fantasy points in wins over Iowa State and West Virginia, and gets a matchup this week against a lifeless Colorado defense. The Buffs are giving up over 25 FPPG this season to quarterbacks. A significant portion of my lineups on Saturday night will include the pairing of Haynes King and Sims as my two QBs.
Fade – TE Chamon Metayer ($4,900) The latest ASU practice report as of Wednesday had Metayer as a non-participant as he was not observed by the media. Maybe that status changes by Saturday but will be one to monitor in pregame if we don’t get any clarification in the next 24 hours. Metayer doesn’t have the ceiling of a player to risk on a DFS slate if his status is in doubt.
Bargain Bin – WR Derek Eusebio ($4,100) Eusebio is coming off a breakout performance against West Virginia last week, targeted a season-high seven times, resulting in 74 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. If Chamon Metayer is indeed out on Saturday, Eusebio will be the primary target in the middle of the field, lining up in the slot 97% of the time. Of course, the dynamic changes for all Arizona State receivers if Jordyn Tyson plays, as he was suited up at practice this week.
Best of the Rest – RB Raleek Brown ($7,000) On paper, Brown should be a go, facing the last ranked run defense in the Big 12. But he’s been relatively underwhelming in the last five games, averaging just 4.3 YPC and failing to score more than 19 fantasy points in that stretch. You just expect more considering Brown is the only running back left essentially in the ASU backfield that’s healthy.
Injury Notes – QB Sam Leavitt (out), WR Jordyn Tyson (questionable), TE Chamon Metayer (questionable)
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Omarion Miller ($6,100) and / or WR Joseph Williams ($4,600) 51 combined fantasy points scored over the last two weeks for Miller, and his fourth double-digit fantasy performance in the last five games with 131 yards in the loss to West Virginia. Both Miller and Joseph Williams get a significant boost in value with Julian Lewis at QB with Colorado’s pass rates going up with a pocket passer under center. Open to stacking both Colorado receivers in a lineup but will look to include at least one of Miller or Williams in most of my builds.
Fade – RBs. Arizona State is not impenetrable by any means, having allowed 16 rushing touchdowns this season, but the Sun Devils are second in the conference in yards allowed on the ground. Conversely, the Buffs are woeful at running the ball again, averaging just 122 yards per game on the ground. At this stage in the season, I couldn’t tell you who Colorado’s starting running back is anymore.
Bargain Bin – WR Dre’lon Miller ($3,900) Miller has been a chess piece for Colorado, helping where needed this season, either at receiver or running back. He had his best performance of the year as well against West Virginia, converting on all five of his targets. Look what happens when Colorado has a somewhat capable passer.
Best of the Rest – QB Julian Lewis ($7,400) Lewis immediately upgraded the Colorado offense in his first career start, throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to West Virginia. While Arizona State allows around 24 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, we believe Lewis is closer to a fade than a play this week. Much like Shedeur Sanders, Lewis provides nothing on the ground, as evidenced by his -39 rushing yards against WVU. Add in that Colorado could be without BOTH starting tackles on Saturday night, and Lewis will need to throw for 300+ yards and two touchdowns at least to hit value, because he’ll likely have negative rushing yards again.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU vs. Cincinnati
- Point-Spread: BYU -2
- O/U Total: 55
- Implied Score: BYU 28.5 – Cin 26.5
- Weather: 48 degrees / 27% rain / 3 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Martin ($7,600) It’s fun when BYU is on a DFS slate because there is no mystery about where the offensive production is coming from. There’s four players of note and that’s about it. Martin gets top billing this week after looking at how running backs have fared against this Cincinnati defense of late. 94 yards and TD from Kedrick Reescano. 90 yards from a Baylor freshman running back. 100+ from Utah’s Wayshawn Parker. And then 163 yards on the ground from Oklahoma State’s Rodney Fields, easily his best performance of the year. Martin will get 95% of the rushing attempts that go to BYU running backs on Saturday, and his usage in the passing game is on the rise with 10 catches in the last two games.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($3,900) Four receptions in three of the last four games for Ryan, who is third on the team in targets (37), catches (28) and routes run. Cincinnati is allowing over 13 FPPG to tight ends this season, one of the higher numbers on the slate.
Pivot Play – QB Bear Bachmeier ($9,200) Not only has Bear Bachmeier been the best freshman quarterback in the country, he’s arguably been the most consistent fantasy QB in the country, outside of maybe Haynes King. 20+ fantasy points in all but two games this season – Texas Tech (understandable) and a blowout of the Stanford being the two instances. Cincinnati allows 24 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, who are also scoring 24% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing the Bearcats.
Best of the Rest – WR Parker Kingston ($6,900) or WR Chase Roberts ($6,500) Salaries make it to where you cannot stack the BYU receivers, but the duo of Roberts and Kingston does account for 52% of the team’s target share and 61% of BYU’s receiving production this season. Slot receivers have found the most success against Cincinnati this season, which points towards Kingston being the choice of the two. Arizona’s Kris Hutson and Utah’s Ryan Davis, both slot receivers, combined for 16 receptions and over 200 yards in the last two weeks vs. Cincy.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendan Sorsby ($8,800) This will sound surprising for a team that has an implied total of 26 this week and is third in the conference in scoring, but we’re unlikely to have much exposure to the Cincinnati offense on Saturday. Sorsby is usually the top option for Cincy each week, but we have questions about his health heading into this matchup. He suffered a lower-body injury in Week 10 vs. Utah, and then his ankle was rolled up on last week against Arizona and finished the game hobbling. The BYU defense is only allowing 15 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Of the top QB options, I’ll have the least amount of exposure to Sorsby.
Fade – RBs. Tawee Walker was a solid play last week vs. Arizona with Evan Pryor out of the lineup, rushing for 100+ yards on 12 attempts. With Pryor now healthy and expected to return Saturday, this becomes a committee backfield again, facing a defense that only allows 21 combined fantasy points per game to running backs. Brendan Sorsby (40) also holds a significant advantage over both Walker (15) and Pryor (5) in red zone attempts this season which diminishes the value of both backs.
Bargain Bin – WR Jeff Caldwell ($4,200) Caldwell’s playing time spiked last week against Arizona with WR Caleb Goodie ($4,000) out of the lineup due to injury. Goodie returns on Saturday, but it is tough to envision Caldwell taking much of a backseat after hauling in 68 yards and a touchdown last week on nine targets. His 86% snaps played vs. Arizona were a season high.
Best of the Rest – WR Cyrus Allen ($6,000) Allen has remained the team’s leading receiver for much of the season, averaging 3.9 receptions and 5.4 targets per game with a team-best nine receiving touchdowns. The interest in all Cincy receivers decreases slightly with Caleb Goodie expected back this week.
Injury Notes – RB Zion Johnson (questionable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Kendrick Raphael, California
- RB Kaytron Allen, Penn State
- A Colorado WR
- QB Mason Heintschel, Pittsburgh
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Kaytron Allen, Penn State
- RB LJ Martin, BYU
- A Colorado WR
- QB Mason Heintschel, Pittsburgh
