Kent State vs. Northern Illinois
Point-Spread: Kent -3.5
O/U Total: 74.5
Weather: Dome
Kent State:
Projection + Pricing likely = Dustin Crum being the highest-owned player on the slate this week. Did Crum have the top five fantasy season that we anticipated from him coming into the year? No, he’s been excellent since entering MAC play, averaging 30.4 FPPG which is five points higher than his overall season average. Against NIU was Crum’s second-best performance of the season with four total touchdowns and 394 total yards in the five-point victory. That was one of two performances from quarterbacks this season topping 40 fantasy points vs. NIU as the Huskies allow 27.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s and are 100th in Pass Play Success Rate. They’re even worst defending the run, giving up 21.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 126th in both Rush Play Success Rate and Explosiveness. That was evidenced by the first meeting where Kent State rolled up 358 yards and five rushing touchdowns, averaging over eight yards per carry. Both Marquez Cooper and Xavier Williams topped 100 yards on the evening. While Williams has been a factor in the backfield all season, Cooper has emerged as the true RB1 over the last month, averaging nearly 24 carries per with six rushing scores. Because of how they’re priced, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibilities that you can roster both Crum and Cooper in the same lineup.
My initial build featured Crum and Dante Cephas but his projection came in at a modest 17.4 points for $7,100. I still like Cephas here as Northern Illinois is giving up the most fantasy points to WR1s on the slate and he did top 100 yards the last time these two played. We’ll need at least 100 and 1 to match his pricing, though, and the Flashes are distributing the targets around a bit more late in the year to Keshunn Abram, Nykeim Johnson and Ja’Shaun Poke. If fading Cephas, but still want a share of the Kent State passing game, Abram would get the nod from me as he was targeted nine times in the last contest and had over 100 yards in the season finale vs. Miami (Ohio). Poke’s season-high of 84 yards came against NIU and 20 of his 37 targets were in the final four games.
Northern Illinois:
Seven of the eight NIU victories this season have come in one-score games with five wins being secured on the final drive of regulation or overtime. I’ve seen many call NIU’s season luck as a result of that. I call it battle-tested, especially with I believe is the second-youngest team in college football. Head coach Thomas Hammock was asked in his weekly presser about the health of his team coming off a 10-day layoff and said they’re fresh and “fully healthy.” I assume that includes QB Rocky Lombardi who threw for 532 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting. Kent State has since changed their defensive coordinator, but the results haven’t been much different, allowing 40+ points to both Central Michigan and Miami (Ohio). Of the team’s on the slate, Kent State is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing QB1s (30.3) and are dead last in the MAC in yards allowed per game through the air. Going with the assumption that Lombardi is healthy, I like him more than his current projection and definitely an option at $7,500.
Neither Tyrice Richie nor Harrison Waylee are on the depth chart this week so we can’t immediately remove them from the pool. We mentioned earlier that Kent State allows the most FPPG to QBs on the slate. Guess what? Same goes for RB1s with eight different running backs topping 20 fantasy points against the Flashes – might be more but my spreadsheet only goes to eight! RB1 Jeyvon Ducker had taking over the starting job the last time these two played, rushing for 101 yards and two scores. Ducker is relatively inexpensive yet again this week at $5,600 but the problem is the rotation now in the backfield with Antario Brown healthy and fullback Clint Ratkovich who is seemingly finding the end-zone every week now. Kent State’s run defensive improved mildly over the last month, allowing just four yards per carry to the last four opponents combined, but take into consideration that two of those teams were Akron and Miami (Ohio). NIU rushed for four touchdowns in the first meeting but averaged just 3.36 YPC.
Assuming Cole Tucker is back healthy after not playing vs. Western Michigan, top three at receiver comprise of Tucker, Travyon Rudolph and Mohamed Toure. Despite the projection favoring Rudolph, I can make a case for Tucker being the better play of the two given pricing as he was targeted 32 times in the last three games alone. That said, Rudolph also scored 62 (!) points against this Kent State defense last time out so you know he’ll have the Flashes full attention on Saturday. There is no correlation as to whether outside or slot receivers give Kent State the most trouble – they all have success.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OSU -5.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Weather: Dome
Baylor:
As of Wednesday writing this, we are unsure as to whether or not Gerry Bohanon will play on Saturday. For DFS purposes, his involvement in the game really doesn’t matter much because we aren’t starting a quarterback against this Oklahoma State secondary that is allowing just 13.7 FPPG to QB1s this season. Caleb Williams and Brock Purdy are the only two quarterbacks to top 18 fantasy points against this defense all year. Against OSU in the first meeting, Bohanon posted his third-lowest output of the season with 14 fantasy points. The last two weeks have shown us that Baylor has a competent backup moving forward in Blake Shapen who threw two touchdowns with 278 yards of total offense against Texas Tech last Saturday. This is not the weekend to get cute with our lineups, though. I’m fading the entire Baylor passing game, including Tyquan Thornton as OSU is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers of any team on the slate. WR3 Drew Estrada has seen a bit of an uptick in the last two weeks with 12 combined targets and is just $3,300. You risk a potential goose-egg there.
As was the case last week, especially if Shapen gets the nod, 30+ carries could be in store for RB1 Abram Smith who did average over nine yards a carry with a touchdown in the first meeting between these teams. Of the two defensive components, Oklahoma State is more vulnerable defending the run as they allow 15.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but are still the No. 1 defense in the conference in that category and 5th nationally in Rush Play Success Rate. Baylor’s offensive line is not the Top 5 unit they were at the beginning of the year, now 21st in Line Yards and 51st in Stuff Rate. I don’t see Baylor generating a ton of success on the ground here, but we know the volume for Smith will be there. Backup Trestan Ebner has now received 11 or more rushing attempts in each of the last six games, and Shapen has really looked his way in the last two with 11 receptions on 11 targets.
Oklahoma State:
I’d rather take a shot at one of the receivers in this slate than roster Spencer Sanders here as one of my QBs. The junior quarterback has clearly been improved this season and has his team in contention for the College Football Playoff, but I don’t see any upside here based on where the game total sits at (26 implied team total), potential game script as a 5.5-point favorite, and facing a defense that limited Sanders to just 15 fantasy points in the previous meeting. Just once as Sanders scored more than 30 fantasy points in a game this season. Baylor has allowed 30+ fantasy points just twice. I’ll take my chances here and fade Sanders against a Dave Aranda-led defense. Projection is really low this week for RB1 Jaylen Warren at just 13.1 as he’s failed to surpass 100 rushing yards in five of the last six games. His volume has also dropped significantly averaging just 16 carries per contest in that stretch, compared to nearly 30 in the prior four games leading up to Week 8. Another situation where I’ll take my chances at fading here and live with the results. Oklahoma State is just 83rd in Rush Play Success Rate and 110th in Line Yards so the big boys up front aren’t pushing the pile much.
While we’re off Sanders this week, I do think the WRs are viable plays for Oklahoma State with the increased volume in the passing game because of Warren’s struggles running the football. Sanders is averaging over 30 attempts per over the last four weeks. Production hasn’t been there for WR1 Tay Martin, but he’s getting peppered with targets – double-digits in three of the last four. I don’t love Brennan Presley this week as it looks like he’ll be matched up with nickel corner Jalen Pitre who is the highest-graded defender on the Baylor defense. It’s been a two-man show at receiver the last month and a half, but I could make the argument potentially for WR3 Blaine Green at $3,500 who does have 10 targets in the last two weeks. Last-ditch effort to fill a roster spot with your remaining salary is the only way I’d consider Green, though.
Utah State @ San Diego State
Point-Spread: SDSU -6
O/U Total: 50
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Utah St:
As good as the San Diego State defense has been this season, they’re most vulnerable on the backend in the secondary. Still pretty damn good in that area as the Aztecs are 10th in Pass Play Success Rate and have forced 15 interceptions but are currently 9th in the conference in yards given up per game (235.5). Those numbers signify just how good at stopping the run SDSU has been this season and forcing their opponents to throw the football to move successfully down the field. I doubt I’ll have a ton of exposure to Logan Bonner at $7,900 given the Aztecs allow just 19 FPPG to opposing QBs and their propensity to force turnovers. Bonner is in that middle range of prices to which he’ll probably have very low ownership in GPPs. Looking at the receivers that have given SDSU most trouble, it’s been a mix. Two outside receivers in Romeo Doubs and Tory Horton from Nevada posted the highest fantasy totals, but slot receivers like Stanley Berryhill, Khalil Shakir and Britain Covey have consistently had success against this defense. That aligns with PFF grades for San Diego State’s slot corner who has the lowest grade of the three starting defensive backs. Good sign for Deven Thompkins then this week? Production is down the last three week with just 15 combined receptions, but still averaging nearly 12 targets per game. WR2 Derek Wright has come on strong the last month and a half with eight touchdowns, but saw a significant price bump to $6k. Brandon Bowling would be a strong pivot to both players at $4,800 as he’s found the end-zone four times in the last five games. You should have zero exposure to the Utah State running game.
San Diego St:
Looks like we’ll be getting Jordon Brookshire at QB this week after coming on in relief of an ineffective and injured Lucas Johnson, and looked like Lamar Jackson out on the field against Boise State with 246 total yards of offense and two touchdowns in the win. As of Monday, head coach Brady Hoke stated that Johnson had not practiced. I don’t normally advocate for starting a San Diego State QB, but Brookshire is a runner at $5,900 with plenty of starting experience, and projects reasonably well at his pricing at over 19 fantasy points – assuming he is the only QB available. Utah State is only 101st in Pass Play Success Rate this season, but allowing only 18.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s. I wouldn’t go heavy on rostering Brookshire here, but he’s at least in play for me in mass-entry GPPs.
Looks like the play for this slate in terms of roster construction is to go cheap at running back, and RB1 Greg Bell fits the bill at just $5,200. It’s been a struggle for Bell in the back-half of the season, averaging under 3.5 YPC in four of the last seven games, but has seen double-digit carries in every game that he’s been healthy for so the volume is what we want at that price. How effective will he be? Utah State allows the second-most fantasy points per game (23.8) to opposing RB1s on this main slate, but the Aggies have been dominant against the run in the last five weeks, aside from their performance against Wyoming. Hawaii, New Mexico State, San Jose State and Nevada combined to average just 1.2 yards per carry vs. Utah State with two rushing TDs.
After beginning the season as a backup, Jesse Matthews has come on strong the second half of the year, and arguably been one of the best receivers in the country the last two weeks with 18 receptions on 21 targets and four touchdowns against UNLV and Boise State. I have a difficult time rostering any receiver on a team like SDSU that runs the ball 61 percent of the time – 16th highest rate in the country – but at $6,300, I think Matthews warrants consideration. Both of Utah State’s boundary corners rank poorly in PFF coverage grades so Matthews will again have a favorable matchup. Elijah Kothe and BJ Busbee are the other two starting receivers, playing about 66 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. 6-foot-6 tight end Daniel Bellinger can be a matchup nightmare for defenders, and has been targeted 20 times in the last four games. Just three tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points against Utah State this season.
Appalachian State @ Louisiana
Point-Spread: App St -2.5
O/U Total: 53
Weather: 74 degrees / 5% rain / 7 mph winds
Appalachian State:
Last time these two teams met, it was pure domination from Louisiana in the Bayou as the Ragin’ Cajuns won 41-13 and outgained Appalachian State by more than 240 total yards of offense. Since then, the Mountaineers rattled off six straight victories to end the season, winning by an average of 26 points in those six contests. Can anyone explain to me why Camerun Peoples is just $4k? I know that the non-competitive matchups that App State played the last month and a half have screwed up the snap counts for the Mountaineer backfield and that Nate Noel has taken a sizeable lead with 184 carries, but that cost is too cheap for a player with 13 rushing touchdowns, on a team that runs the ball 58 percent of the time (28th in country). Louisiana is a middle-of-the-road rush defense, allowing 14.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and 72nd in Rush Play Success Rate. Nothing there suggests App State can’t find success on the ground Saturday. Daetrich Harrington and Anderson Castle have both seen consistent reps the last few weeks, but my early assumption as of Wednesday is that the Mountaineers ride the horses that have gotten them to this point in Peoples/Noel.
Chase Brice has rebounded from his disastrous 2020 season with Duke to throw for 22 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, but his worst performance of the year came against this same Louisiana team on the road. 12 of Brice’s 22 passing touchdowns have come in the last five weeks, but we’ve already made mention as to the SOS for those five opponents (hint – not good). The Cajuns are allowing just 19.0 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 15th in Pass Play Success Rate so this doesn’t appear to be a matchup in which I’d have interest in Brice much. Louisiana is 127th in Pass Play Explosiveness allowed so maybe we can look to the receivers? Lean towards no here as not a single wideout topped 20 fantasy points all season against Louisiana, and the targets continue to be spread evenly amongst Corey Sutton, Thomas Hennigan and Malik Williams. Hennigan and Sutton’s projected are nearly even, so would favor the latter of the two and save $700.
Louisiana:
App State’s six-game win streak is impressive but pales in comparison to Louisiana who has now won 11 straight since the opening week loss to Texas on the road. Unfortunately for the purposes of DFS, particularly on a main slate like this, almost everyone is unplayable due to how much rotation goes on at running back and receiver. Think Georgia of the Sun Belt. Levi Lewis is too expensive at $7k facing an App State secondary that 29th in Pass Play Success Rate and allow just 17.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. The receivers are eliminated from the player pool as they rotate between 6-7 guys each game. No need mentioning their names because they aren’t under consideration. And we are back to the three-man rotation at running back now that Emani Bailey is back healthy, and has actually been UL’s best option of late, rushing for 60 yards and a TD against both Liberty and ULM. Because they split, maybe you can gain some leverage over the field if running out Chris Smith or Montrell Johnson as they haven’t been as effective of late, yet still garner a considerable amount of carries. I just think it’s a situation to avoid here against a run defense that is 13th in Success Rate and gives up just 21.9 FPPG in total to opposing running backs.
Georgia vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: UGA -6
O/U Total: 49.5
Weather: Dome
Georgia:
Georgia should win this game, and projected to score 28 points while doing it. We just have zero clue where those points are coming from if this entire season is any indication and I have no interest in any UGA player as I normally do. Zamir White is $5,800 simply on name recognition because his fantasy production the last month does not warrant that kind of salary. Alabama is allowing just 9.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season so White is out for me. Only way I see him out-producing that cost is if Kirby Smart decides to swing his you-know-what-around if UGA is dominating the line of scrimmage. Even then, they’ll rotate in both James Cook and Kenny McIntosh, with the former having outperformed White the last month or so.
Three quarterbacks have topped 30 fantasy points against the Tide this season and Bama is giving up 21.9 FPPG overall on the year. Does that increase my interest in Stetson Bennett at all? Not at $7,300 it doesn’t. If I’m not spending up to $6,600 for Alec Pierce, there’s a slim chance I’d do the same for a tight end in Brock Bowers either at $6,700. The lone argument I could make here is that Alabama has struggled with tight ends this season, allowing 8.4 FPPG to TE1s which is third-most on the slate. Don’t have the slightest clue as of Wednesday as to what the WR rotations will look like for UGA on Saturday, but they’re all extremely cheap, outside of Jermaine Burton. Of the group, only Adonai Mitchell had more than two targets vs. Georgia Tech. If recent weeks are any indication, it will be Burton and Mitchell outside with Ladd McConkey in the slot, but likely see a rotation of 6-7 players, including George Pickens who saw the field briefly last week.
Alabama:
Only good part about writing up Georgia games for DFS was I didn’t have to type a damn thing about the opposing team. Can’t do it this week as Alabama will give the Dawgs their biggest challenge to date. But, for the first time this year, we don’t have a single Bama player projected at more than 20 points this week. Start with injuries as Brian Robinson Jr. pulled a muscle late in the win over Auburn, leaving his status cloudy for Saturday. With the Bama RB room already thin due to injury, that would leave just Trey Sanders as the lone option should Robinson Jr. be ruled out. As of Wednesday afternoon, I had not seen an update here and wouldn’t expect one until Friday. Was hoping we might see Sanders at below $5k given he has just 50 carries for the season, but there is no chance we can consider him at $6,100 against a defense that allows just 6.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Fade the Bama running backs altogether here.
No, the performance from Bryce Young and the Alabama passing game last week did not boost my confidence heading into this Saturday. Georgia is just as good at defending the pass as they are the run, allowing 9.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s and No.1 in Pass Play Success Rate. The Georgia defense is deserving of all recognition this season, but let’s take a look at that long line of talented QBs they’ve face this year. Hendon Hooker, Will Levis, Bo Nix, DJU, Mike Wright, Tyler Macon, Emory Jones, Luke Doty. No wonder they’ve been able to accumulate those gaudy numbers defending the pass. If there is any flaw, maybe its Explosiveness allowed through the air where the Dawgs are just 29th in the country. And there isn’t a more explosive receiver in the country that I can think of than Jameson Williams. WR1s are averaging just 12.8 FPPG against the Dawgs, but we’ve seen Cedric Tillman top 30 fantasy points, along with 23 and 22 fantasy points scored from both Wan’Dale Robinson and Josh Vann so there seems to be a path to some success here. Worth spending $8k to find out if Jameson Williams is truly matchup-proof with the amount of talented WRs on this slate? Nope. WR2 John Metchie was targeted 22 times last week vs. Auburn, and has topped double-digit targets in four of the last five games, but view him in the same light as I do Williams. Just too many other options at the position with better matchups this week.
Houston @ Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -10.5
O/U Total: 53
Weather: 44 degrees / 2% rain / 5 mph winds
Houston:
If you’ve followed my work the last few years, you know I love Clayton Tune, but he’s not in the conversation for me this week at Cincinnati and one of the best secondaries in the country. The Bearcats allow just 13 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and are 7th in Pass Play Success Rate. Cincy has been dominant the last two weeks since the debacle against USF, limiting SMU to just 66 yards passing, followed by a strong performance vs. ECU where Holton Ahlers didn’t accumulate his passing yardage until the game was already out of hand. We got a glimpse of the old Tune a few weeks back against Memphis where he rushed for 59 yards and a score on 13 carries, but simply has not run as much in 2021 – some of which due to injury. Averaging just six carries per game compared to nine a year ago. My guess is Tune will be up to the task in a game with this much at stake, but not sure the fantasy production will accompany it.
Didn’t see any of the Connecticut game last week, but RB1 Alton McCaskill did get 25 offensive snaps and nine rushing attempts so the assumption here is he is good to go vs. Cincinnati. Does “good to go” mean 100 percent? Not sure, but Dana Holgorsen mentioned everyone is available to play on Saturday in his weekly presser. That means WR1 Nathaniel Dell who did get banged up vs. UConn, but is healthy per Holgorsen. The Cincinnati run defense closed the year on a high note, allowing just 54 yards and a 1.42 YPC average to East Carolina, but had allowed 10 rushing touchdowns in the six games leading up to the Week 13 matchup. I’ll look to avoid McCaskill here as Houston doesn’t have a good run blocking offensive line – 113th in Line Yards and 104th in Rush Play Success Rate.
As mentioned last week in our writeup, we don’t touch outside receivers vs. Cincy so both Jaylen Erwin and Jeremy Singleton won’t be considered for me. Slot receivers are a different story as evidenced with ECU’s Tyler Snead who led the Pirates with a team-high nine targets last week. Cincy’s nickel corner is the “weak spot” of the secondary. Dell will rotate inside and out, playing in the slot 49 percent of the time this year, and that has increased the last three weeks to around 81 percent. Jake Herslow has seen his playing time rise as the season’s gone along, targeted 19 times with two touchdowns in the last two games. Realistically, our only option at receiver is Dell. The Bearcats allow just 4.0 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season, but ECU’s Ryan Jones has some level of success with 5-70-0 on eight targets. Christian Trahan’s production has dropped in the second half of the year, but is just $3,500.
Cincinnati:
Who do you think was on the Main Slate more this year, Maryland or Cincinnati? I’m trying to be brief with some of these teams because I’ve written about them exhaustingly this season and we know who the major players are. Houston is Top 3 in the AAC defending both the run and the pass, and No. 1 overall on the conference at defending the run. The Cougars are allowing just 11.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s, with just two players topping 15 fantasy points against them – one of which was in the season opener against Texas Tech and Houston’s only loss. For that reason, when choosing between either Desmond Ridder or Jerome Ford this week (because you can’t choose both with this low a total), 100 percent give me the quarterback who has a projection of 28 fantasy points. Is Ridder worth it at $9k is the better question? Projection would say so, but this Houston defense is allowing just 19 FPPG to opposing QB1s this year and are No. 2 nationally in Pass Play Success Rate defensively. This is one of Cincinnati’s lowest implied totals (31) of the year and I don’t think it’s a must to roster anyone this week. Easy pass for me on WR1 Alec Pierce at $6,600 as this slate is littered with talented receivers and I’d rather roster Jaquarii Roberson at $100 cheaper. Did have a monster day last week with 8-136-1 and four TDs in the last four games. Tight ends have had success against the Cougars this year with four 10+ point performances, averaging over 6.0 FPPG. Issue is Josh Whyle has been completely invisible the last two weeks and splits time with Leonard Taylor who did find the end-zone vs. ECU.
Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: Pitt -3
O/U Total: 71.5
Weather: 55 degrees / 1% rain / 4 mph winds
Pittsburgh:
Line has rightfully swung in favor of Pittsburgh who has the offense to match Wake Forest here, but can also play some semblance of defense unlike the Deacons. Let’s first start with the injuries as there is potentially a big one in RB1 Izzy Abanikanda who did not play last week vs. Syracuse. If he is out, Rodney Hammond becomes the play here as a 3-point favorite as Pitt loves to use their FR running back late in games as the team’s closer. Now add in that he’d get a bunch of first half looks against one of the worst rush defenses in the country, and you’d have to lock him in. That said, head coach Pat Narduzzi said following the Cuse game that Izzy would be “ready to go” so we’ll have to keep tabs on this situation as the week progresses. Regardless of who is back there, Pitt should find a ton of success on the ground against the 118th ranked run defense that is also 120th in Rush Play Success Rate. The hope here is we have clarity on who is in/out.
Worth spending up for Kenny Pickett at $9,700? The Heisman candidate is going to rack up the points against a Wake Forest defense that allows 27.1 FPPG to opposing QBs, but if Pitt is able to run the ball successfully as most team’s have against the Deacs, does his value lose some of the luster? Not to mention we have Sam Hartman who is cheaper with a higher projection this week, and Dustin Crum with a substantially lower salary and a 30+ point projection as well. Something to consider when debating whether or not to have Pickett in your lineups.
More injuries to monitor at receiver with Taysir Mack and Jaylon Barden not having played in a few weeks. No update there. Pitt seems to be getting by just fine without them as Jordan Addison continues to be one of the best receivers in the country who has scored 100 fantasy points in the last two games alone. Double-digit targets in each of the last five games with seven TDs in the span. Of the three Wake Forest defense backs Pitt receivers will face, Addison looks to have the toughest matchup, but nickel back Nick Anderson has a coverage grade under 60 this season which isn’t great. The two boundary corners grade out even worse so both Jared Wayne and Shocky Jacques-Louis should find some level of success, though the two were targeted just five times vs. Syracuse. WF has done a reasonable job against opposing TE1s this season, allowing just 4.8 FPPG. Pitt got both Lucas Krull and Gavin Bartholomew plenty of looks against the Orange with a combined 13 targets. Two tight ends scored 17 fantasy points or more vs. WF this year so both are potential salary-saving options.
Wake Forest:
Where we touted A.T. Perry last week based on matchups, we’ll do the same vs. Pitt…but with Jaquarii Roberson. Looking at the Pitt cornerbacks, there isn’t a perceived weakness across the board, unless looking at FS Erick Hallett II. But you dig in a bit more to see which receivers had the most success against the Panthers this season and the picture starts to crystalize. Keytaon Thompson (37 fantasy points) = slot receiver. Corey Crooms (30.1 fantasy points) = slot receiver. Courtney Jackson (29.2 fantasy points) = slot receiver. Even Josh Downs in a down week had 17 fantasy points. Averaging 10 targets per game over the last seven weeks, and if doing some box score analysis, he’s on a bit of a roller-coaster of late in terms of production – one week he’s the primary and the next he takes a back seat to Perry. If a believer in those types of sequences, this would be the week where Roberson is the top option, and you save quite a bit of salary with the slot receiver. Taylor Morin and Donald Stewart are the third and fourth options now in the passing game, seeing just as many snaps as the other two receivers. More punt plays to round out a roster than players we actually want to target as the production is lacking for both.
First glance for most will be to flock to Pickett over Sam Hartman, but we do have a higher projection for the Wake Forest QB this week, at a cheaper cost, with a more favorable game-script as a 3-point underdog. Of the two defensive components, Pitt is not as good on the backend, allowing 26 FPPG to opposing QBs and 58th in Pass Play Success Rate. The Panthers do a good job at limiting the big play – 36th in Explosiveness – which again helps our argument in favoring Roberson > Perry this week. I haven’t seen an update as to which running backs will be available for WF but that is a situation you look to avoid at all costs. Pitt is allowing just 14 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and 6th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively. No thanks.
Michigan vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: UM -11
O/U Total: 43.5
Weather: Dome
Michigan:
Fading Hassan Haskins last week was obviously a mistake as he flat-out dominated the Buckeyes with 169 yards and five touchdowns – felt eerily similar to what Kenneth Walker did to the Wolverines earlier in the year. Haskins is now averaging 27 carries per game since Week 10 against Indiana when Blake Corum left due to injury. Will be a see a similar game-script against the Hawkeyes where Michigan continues to feed their workhorse? Corum didn’t see the field until late in the first quarter against Ohio State which could mean two things: (1) either he’s still not quite 100 percent healthy, or (2) Michigan rode the hot hand and set the tone for the entire game with Haskins’ physicality as a runner. I lean towards the latter here, as evidenced by Corum’s 55-yard run where he looked plenty healthy to me. My guess is we see 20+ carries again from Haskins this week which keeps him in the player pool, but I have a tough time envisioning myself spending $8,700 on a player with so many cheap options available to us at the position. RB3 Donovan Edwards looks like a future star, and will see some snaps, but he’s not rosterable in this big of a spot at $3,900 as Michigan will ride their veterans here. Just one opponent averaged more than four yards per carry against Iowa this season, and the Hawkeyes limited RB1s to just 10.3 FPPG in 2021.
Pricing is the only thing keeping Cade McNamara as an “option” for the SFlex at just $5,700, but the Michigan QB1 topped 20 fantasy points just once this season. I’d rather roster another skill position player in my lineup, instead of McNamara being my second QB. The Iowa defense statistically ranks better than they actually are, in my opinion, but allow just 19 FPPG to QB1s and are 13th in the country in Pass Play Success Rate. Out on the Michigan pass-catchers as it’s a crap-shoot each week with how they spread the ball around. Cornelius Johnson -> Roman Wilson -> Erick All -> Mike Sainristil -> Andrel Anthony is the order of priority.
Iowa:
I wanted to be as unbiased as possible writing this game up, but I just can’t. I don’t see how Iowa will be able to score in this matchup and believe the Wolverines (if not still drunk from the Ohio State win) should be able to easily dispatch Iowa and clinch a Big Ten title. If this was your prototypical Iowa offensive line that could dominate the trenches, I’d think otherwise, but that’s not the case this year. 128th in Stuff Rate, 129th in Line Yards and 111th in Rush Play Success Rate. Tyler Goodson is talented enough to make plays despite porous run blocking ahead of him as evidenced by his November performance with three 100-yard performances in the last four games. That stretch also included Northwestern and Illinois who are bottom tier run defenses in the Big Ten, and Nebraska who fell from 2nd in the conference against the run to 9th by the end of the regular season. With a projection at just 12 fantasy points, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to have a ton of exposure to Goodson in a matchup where Michigan allows just 15 FPPG to RB1s this season. That said, I don’t think we can’t completely “x” him out of our pool as the Wolverines have been most susceptible against the run in 2021. We saw what Kenneth Walker did. But I think the Iowa staff will look to get Goodson out in space against these LBs in coverage similar to what Tre Henderson did last week for the Buckeyes. Henderson, Walker and Rahmir Johnson were the three running backs to top 20+ fantasy points against the Wolverines this year, and that trio combined for 14 receptions on 14 targets with two receiving touchdowns. Could be an area in which Kirk Ferentz looks to exploit with a great pass-catcher in Goodson.
Out on Spencer Petras who was named the starter this week in place of Alex Padilla. The Wolverines are 17th in Pass Play Success Rate…and Petras sucks, simple as that. Michigan has shut down opposing tight ends this season, allowing just 3.2 FPPG so we won’t have a ton of exposure to Sam LaPorta, even at $3,600. True FR Keagan Johnson has emerged as the No. 1 target for the Hawkeyes, playing the most snaps of any receiver last week vs. Nebraska. Production isn’t there, but Johnson does have 34 targets in the last five games.
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