Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
- Point-Spread: Miss -7
- O/U Total: 62
- Implied Score: Miss 34.5 – MSU 27.5
- Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Kewan Lacy ($8,000) As straight forward as it gets for CFB DFS. The nation’s sixth-leading rusher with 1,136 yards and 19 rushing touchdowns on the season faces the worst run defense in the SEC. The Bulldogs have allowed over 300 rushing yards in back-to-back games.
Pivot Play – WR Harrison Wallace ($5,300) There’s temptation to go cheaper with the Ole Miss WRs, but Wallace has led or been tied for the team lead in targets in each of the last five games. Seven or more targets in four of those five games, so his target volume is up as well. The concern with rostering Wallace or any Ole Miss pass-catcher is how much will the Rebels need to throw if they’re bludgeoning MSU on the ground like the last two opponents have? Max one Ole Miss WR per lineup, unless game stacking.
Best of the Rest – QB Trinidad Chambliss ($9,800) I don’t think this is a scenario where you can stack the Ole Miss backfield with Lacy and Chambliss. Not that this won’t be a high-scoring game, but you need 30 fantasy points to pay off this salary, which Chambliss hasn’t done since mid-October. Lineups have to be constructed with one or the other. MSU has been solid in the secondary this season, ranked 7th in the SEC in yards allowed through the air and have the second most interceptions in the conference. The Bulldogs are allowing just 18.9 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, so if choosing between Chambliss and Lacy, the choice is easy.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – WR Anthony Evans ($6,000) and / or WR Brenen Thompson ($5,800) Same story different week. The Mississippi State passing game revolves around Evans and Thompson who account for 50% of the team target share and 10 of the 19 receiving touchdowns. Of the two, I prefer Evans as slot receivers have fared better against this Ole Miss secondary and the Rebels are good at limiting explosive pass plays, ranked 25th in that category.
Fade – RB Davon Booth ($5,600) Booth would have been a fade at this salary regardless, as he’s now splitting carries with Fluff Bothwell. But the senior back is suspended for the first half due to a “disciplinary action” from head coach Jeff Lebby.
Bargain Bin – TE Seydou Traore ($4,400) We’ve seen an uptick in production from Traore as his collegiate career winds down, with 17 of his 30 receptions this season coming in the last four games. WR Ayden Williams ($3,300) has played over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last two weeks as MSU’s WR3, though he has just 18 receiving yards in the last three games combined. FWIW – Williams is a former Mississippi transfer (revenge spot).
Pivot Play – RB Fluff Bothwell ($5,800) The former South Alabama transfer hasn’t been much of a factor since coming back from injury, averaging just four yards per carry over the last three games. But he’ll have the backfield mostly to himself in the first half on Friday, and if Bothwell gets rolling, how much will the coaching staff even want to incorporate Davon Booth in the second half? Ole Miss is 14th in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground, 97th in rush D success rate and 104th in giving up explosive run plays.
Best of the Rest – QB Blake Shapen ($7,600) Unfortunately, the QB spot for Mississippi State is unplayable with Shapen splitting snaps with freshman Kamario Taylor. We envision a bigger role for Taylor on Friday as well to assist Bothwell in the run game with Davon Booth out of the lineup.
Injury Notes – RB Davon Booth (suspension)
Utah vs. Kansas
- Point-Spread: Utah -11.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: Utah 36 – KU 24.5
- Weather: 37 degrees / 6% rain / 8 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Wayshawn Parker ($6,700) Parker has separated himself from the pack in the Utah backfield with four-straight 100-yard rushing performances and three rushing TDs in the last month. While there isn’t a Utah running back challenging him for carries anymore, he’s still battling to scoring opportunities with both quarterbacks on the roster which limits his upside. Parker is a better cash game option than in GPPs if he’s splitting red zone carries with 2-3 other Utah players. Kansas is 14th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and giving up nearly 30 FPPG to opposing backfields, so the Utes should have no problem running on the Jayhawks.
Bargain Bin – WR JJ Buchanan ($3,900) Buchanan will see an expanded role as the WR1 for the Utes on Friday with Ryan Davis out of the lineup. Buchanan is third on the team in routes run, receptions (20) and targets (38). WR Larry Simmons ($4,000) ran the second most routes behind Buchanan last week against Kansas State, converting on four of his six targets with a receiving touchdown. WR Creed Whittemore ($4,200) also enters the picture as a potential option with Davis out of the lineup. The former Miss State transfer doubled his season total in receptions (6) last week on eight targets. Limit one per lineup as we don’t believe Utah will need to throw much to beat Kansas on Friday.
Pivot Play – QB Devon Dampier ($8,200) Dampier has scored 23 or more fantasy points in five of his last six starts but playing him on Friday means you run the risk of him splitting snaps with backup QB Byrd Ficklin ($7,200) as the Utes have done over the last month. Against Kansas State last week, while Dampier had double the number of rushing attempts and yards on the ground, it was Ficklin that held a 3-2 advantage in rushing TDs and a 4-3 advantage in red zone carries. Kansas is only allowing 20 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and Utah will be without its No. 1 wide receiver, so the alternative is just avoiding this headache, no matter how tempting it might be.
Best of the Rest – TE Dallen Bentley ($5,000) Bentley has found the end zone twice in as many weeks, now sitting atop the Utah leaderboard in touchdowns (5), while ranking second in targets (61), receptions (38) and routes run. Kansas is giving up over 11 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Injury Notes – WR Ryan Davis (out)
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($6,000) or RB Leshon Williams ($5,300) 472 yards allowed on the ground last week by the Utes in their narrow victory over Kansas State. If you take out the matchup against Colorado, Utah is allowing 228 yards per game and a 5.9 YPC average against Big 12 opponents this season. The Utes are now 132nd in the country in explosive run plays given up. Kansas should be able to run on Utah, but does either Hishaw or Williams get the majority of rushing attempts? Or will it be split down the middle as it was vs. Iowa State last week?
Bargain Bin – WR Levi Wentz ($3,600) Kansas hasn’t found a reliable third wide receiver this season, but Wentz has started to emerge of late with 13 targets over the last two games. Low floor / low ceiling play.
Pivot Play – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,100) Daniels scored 23+ fantasy points in his first four games this season. He’s done that just once in the last five games and will now be facing a Utah defense that does a good job at limiting fantasy production against quarterbacks, averaging just 16.1 FPPG. The only argument(s) in favor of Daniels is that it’s his Senior Day and maybe he runs around just like Avery Johnson did a week ago against this defense with 74 yards on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Emmanuel Henderson ($5,300) or WR Cam Pickett ($4,900) Only room for one Kansas WR per lineup…if that. Kansas has failed to throw more than 200 yards in any of the last four games, while Utah is allowing just 176 YPG through the air. Utah has allowed three 100-yard receivers in the last three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa vs. Nebraska
- Point-Spread: Iowa -6.5
- O/U Total: 39.5
- Implied Score: Iowa 23 – Neb 16.5
- Weather: 32 degrees / 13% rain / 10 mph winds
Iowa:
Our one question anytime that Iowa is on a Main Slate – Can RB Kamari Moulton ($6,800) run on Nebraska? That answer should be a resounding YES with the Cornhuskers ranked 14th in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground and have given up the second most rushing touchdowns (22) in the conference. Running backs are averaging 29 FPPG against Nebraska this season. I’d really love it, though, if Moulton could stay under his season-long rushing prop of 850.5 yards.
Nebraska:
Vibes are down with the Nebraska program, losers of two of their last three games and now rumors circling quarterback Dylan Raiola and the possibility he enters the portal after this season. As for the here and now, the passing game has fallen off a cliff since the Raiola season-ending injury, so no interest in that component of the offense. RB Emmett Johnson ($7,800) ranks as RB3 in college fantasy football this season, just 0.7 fantasy points behind North Texas’ Caleb Hawkins (also on the slate) and Jeremiyah Love. If not on the ground, Johnson is getting it done as a receiver as well with 44 receptions on 51 targets and had a 100-yard receiving performance against UCLA in Week 11. As for the matchup, Iowa is fourth in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and giving up just 18 FPPG to opposing backfields. Not a gimme matchup by any means but can’t dismiss any running back averaging 23 touches per game.
Ohio vs. Buffalo
- Point-Spread: Ohio -6.5
- O/U Total: 45.5
- Implied Score: Ohio 26 – Buff 19.5
- Weather: 33 degrees / 69% rain / 15 mph winds
Ohio:
104–That’s how many passing yards Ohio has combined to throw in the last two weeks. For that reason, it’s difficult to consider WR Chase Hendricks ($6,900) in this spot despite being just six targets away from 100 on the season. Hendricks’ 62 receptions are nearly triple the amount of the next closest Ohio wide receiver, so he’s the only realistic option of the bunch. WR Rodney Harris ($4,900) is second on the team in receptions (25) and targets (32), while rarely leaving the field, playing over 90% of Ohio’s offensive snaps. Just 13 receiving yards in the last two games, though.
Ohio’s offense revolves around the run game of QB Parker Navarro ($8,700) and RB Sieh Bangura ($7,500) who have combined to rush for over 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns this season, as the Bobcats lead the MAC in rushing. Buffalo is best at defending the run versus the pass, ranked 13th in success rate and 36th in limiting explosive run plays, so neither Navarro nor Bangura are priority plays on the slate. RB Duncan Brune ($5,300) has the remaining eight rushing touchdowns for Ohio, but all eight have come in games where the Bobcats have won by multiple touchdowns. That’s not expected with Ohio being just 6.5-point favorites.
Buffalo:
Top Play(s) – WR Nik McMillan ($6,700) No reason that McMillan should be priced below WR Victor Snow ($7,000) after notching five straight 100-yard games, with double-digit targets in all five matchups. McMillan is WR1, not Snow, and he’s arguably the best play on the slate aside from Kewan Lacy. That’s not to totally discount Snow either, ranking first on the team in receptions (58) and receiving touchdowns (8). Between McMillan and Snow, the duo combines for 65% of the team’s receiving production and 11 of the 17 touchdowns. Because of Buffalo’s inability to run the football effectively in 2025, the Bulls are 21st nationally in pass rate (54.5%), which bodes well for a high volume of targets for the WRs with Buffalo being a near-touchdown underdog
Fade – RB Al-Jay Henderson ($6,200) Henderson isn’t the biggest bust in college fantasy football, but he’s high up on the list after his fall from grace in the month of November, scoring just five combined fantasy points in the last two games. The reason for Henderson’s struggles in 2025? Buffalo is 117th in success rate, 117th in line yards and 108th standard down success rate. Offensive line play has been a major culprit.
Bargain Bin – WR Jasaiah Gathings ($4,200) Gathings is an inefficient receiver with just a 48% catch rate for the year but sits just behind Snow / McMillan with 71 targets in 10 games, and plays over 91% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps over the last five games. Gathings has been targeted nine or more times in four of the last five weeks.
Best of the Rest – QB Ta’Quan Roberson ($7,000) Roberson’s fantasy production has fallen off a cliff here in the last four games, averaging just 11.5 FPPG in that time span. Our interest lies more with the receivers in the Buffalo passing game as opposed to Roberson, with Ohio giving up just 17.6 FPPG this season to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kent State vs. Northern Illinois
- Point-Spread: NIU -5
- O/U Total: 45
- Implied Score: NIU 25 – KSU 20
- Weather: 29 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Kent State:
I’d need a raise before doing a deep dive of the Kent State offense on a 10-game slate while writing this the day before Thanksgiving. RB Gavin Garcia ($5,200) shouldered the rushing workload in Week 13, running for 77 yards on 15 carries vs. Central Michigan. NIU ranks 10th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and give up around 26 FPPG to opposing backfields. TE Terik Mulder ($3,300) has caught four passes in each of the last two games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northern Illinois:
Over / under 12.5 passes thrown by NIU on Friday? The Huskies are 7th nationally in run play rate (64%), heading into a matchup where their 5-point favorites at home against the 11th ranked run defense in the MAC. RB Chavon Wright ($5,900) has rushed for 86 or more yards in three of the last four games, coming off a game where he carried the ball 21 times in a double-digit loss. Wright will likely see a heavy workload in his final collegiate game of his career. RB Telly Johnson ($5,200) hopefully sticks around DeKalb for another season despite being demoted to RB2 this season behind Wright. Johnson is averaging just under six yards a carry, facing a defense that is 109th in explosive run plays allowed. I probably wouldn’t stack the NIU backfield, but either running back is playable here.
Air Force vs. Colorado State
- Point-Spread: AF -1.5
- O/U Total: 44.5
- Implied Score: AF 23 – CSU 21.5
- Weather: 51 degrees / 7% rain / 8 mph winds
Air Force:
Air Force’s season went down the drain the second Liam Szarka was lost for the season due to injury. The Falcons have lost three of their last four games and have scored just 19 combined points in the last two weeks. There seemed to be at least one fantasy-relevant piece on the Air Force offense with FB Owen Allen ($5,200) who had a string of four 100-yard rushing performances over a five-game span from Week’s 7-12. That came to a screeching halt in last week’s loss to New Mexico where Allen was held to just eight yards on five rushing attempts and didn’t even start the game. We don’t mind taking shots on Allen or FB Dylan Carson ($4,600) considering Colorado State is giving up over 38 FPPG to opposing backfields this season and rank dead last in the conference in yards allowed on the ground. We just can’t confidently say right now which of the two will lead the team in carries on Saturday, so there’s a bit of risk involved.
Colorado State:
Top Play(s) – TE Rocky Beers ($5,100) Beers has now caught a touchdown with 60+ receiving yards in three straight games with 22 targets in that span. CSU has had some elite tight ends in the past with Dallin Holker and Trey McBride – shame that Beers didn’t get consistent QB play this season or he might’ve been added to that list.
Bargain Bin – WR Tay Lanier ($3,900) Lanier has led the Rams in routes run over the last five weeks, with 18 of his 26 receptions this season coming in that time frame.
Pivot Play – RB Lloyd Avant ($4,900) Avant’s numbers certainly don’t pop off the screen, rushing for just 50 total yards in the last two games, but the Tulsa transfer has led the Rams in carries since former starter Jalen Dupree announced his intentions to enter the transfer portal. The matchup is why Avant is even being mildly considered here, facing an Air Force defense that is allowing 5.28 YPC to opponents and given up the most rushing touchdowns in the Mountain West (26).
Injury Notes – QB Darius Curry (suspended for spitting)
San Diego State vs. New Mexico
- Point-Spread: SDSU -1.5
- O/U Total: 41.5
- Implied Score: SDSU 21.5 – NM 20
- Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
San Diego State:
Just when we thought Ohio and Air Force had the worst passing offenses on the slate, the Aztecs said, “hold my beer.” 98 combined passing yards in the last two weeks for San Diego State and will not be without their WR1 in Jordan Napier for the remainder of the season. This offense goes as RB Lucky Sutton ($6,900) goes, as the junior back leads the conference with 1,127 yards and nine touchdowns. While we normally want any running back that averages over 20 touches per game, the matchup isn’t the best. New Mexico is second in the MWC in yards allowed on the ground, 17th nationally in stuff rate and 45th in rush D success rate. Sutton is in the pool of options, but there’s better RBs on the slate.
New Mexico:
Top Play(s) – RB Damon Bankston ($5,500) Bankston has become New Mexico’s Swiss Army knife on offense, leading the Lobos in rushing with 516 yards, but also third on the team in receptions (25) and targets (30) with a combined eight total touchdowns. This game will be a slog, so low exposure on both sides, but Bankston can accumulate fantasy points in a variety of ways. Our interest in any New Mexico running back is limited with San Diego State allowing a combined 14.5 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Fade – RB Scottre Humphrey ($4,600) Coming into the season, HC Jason Eck called Humphrey one of the best running backs he’s ever seen in the Big Sky conference, coming over from Montana State where he rushed for 1,385 yards and 16 TDs last year. Turns out the Big Sky to Mountain West was too big a transition for Humphrey who’s fallen to third on the depth chart with 10 or fewer rushing yards in five of his last six games.
Pivot Play – RB DJ McKinney ($5,000) Bankston offers a bit more in the passing game, but McKinney does lead the team with 105 rushing attempts and six touchdowns, with double-digit carries in three of the last four games. McKinney also holds a 28-18 advantage in red zone opportunities over Bankston, so there’s arguments for both New Mexico backs.
Best of the Rest – WR Keagan Johnson ($5,700) or TE Dorian Thomas ($5,200) Top-heavy target share between Johnson and Thomas at 52% and just over 49% of the team’s receiving production. San Diego State isn’t as good at defending the pass as they are the run, but the Aztecs are borderline elite at both for G5 standards. SDSU is 7th in pass D success rate and 30th at limiting explosive pass plays. We’d limit all lineups to one New Mexico pass-catcher as the Lobos only throw that ball at a 45% clip.
Injury Notes – n/a
Temple vs. North Texas
- Point-Spread: UNT -19.5
- O/U Total: 64.5
- Implied Score: UNT 42 – Tem 22.5
- Weather: 57 degrees / 7% rain / 13 mph winds
Temple:
Top Play(s) – WR Colin Chase ($3,500) or WR Kajiya Hollawayne ($3,900) A couple intriguing storylines in this matchup with North Texas about to be losing its head coach to Oklahoma State, and Temple just one win away from bowl eligibility. If this game gets wacky, we wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. Temple WRs are cheap and the Owls don’t rotate at all at the position at this point in the year. Hollawayne has fallen off in the last three games, but has had some spike weeks, including a 146-yard performance against Navy and three receiving touchdowns in Week 9 vs. Tulsa. Chase has found the end-zone in each of the last two games, with 19 combined receptions over the last four weeks.
Bargain Bin – WR JoJo Bermudez ($3,400) or TE Peter Clarke ($3,700) Chase and Hollawayne are the priority plays among the Temple pass-catchers, but Bermudez and Clarke have been productive this season, combining for nine touchdowns between them. Neither player leaves the field much, ranked 3rd and 4th on the team in routes run, while playing over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Evan Simon ($5,700) Easy to identify when to play Simon and when not to. The former Rutgers transfer has scored 22 or more points five times this season. Those came against the 92nd, 96th, 133rd and 134th ranked scoring defenses in the country. North Texas is 63rd for reference. I also don’t hate the play North Texas is allowing over 21 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, and Simon still has an insane 24 – 1 touchdown to interception ratio. 20 fantasy points is well within his range of outcomes.
Best of the Rest – RB Jay Ducker ($5,100) Like Simon, Ducker has beaten up on inferior opponents and been mostly invisible against defenses with a pulse. North Texas isn’t an inferior opponent, but the Mean Green are also dead last in the American Conference in yards allowed on the ground, giving up 27 FPPG to opposing backfields. If Ducker doesn’t get it done on the ground, he’s also a threat out of the backfield with 22 catches on 27 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Caleb Hawkins ($10,000) Crazy that Caleb Hawkins is tied for the nation’s lead in rushing touchdowns (19) yet has only played in 10 games. He’ll look very good in Black and Orange next season, likely following his head coach to Oklahoma State, although every school in the country will be throwing a bag at the freshman running back. Hawkins is worth the $10k investment, facing a Temple defense that is 11th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground, have given up the third most rushing touchdowns in the American and are giving up over 26 FPPG to opposing running backs.
Bargain Bin – TE Tre Williams III ($4,500) Williams has rarely left the field over the last five games, playing 89% of the team’s offensive snaps, and found the end-zone last week on 62 receiving yards. Temple is allowing over 11 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Pivot Play – WR Wyatt Young ($6,800) Young single-handily sent folks to their college fantasy championships last week with his 295-yard, three-touchdown performance in the win over Rice. That would be Young’s fourth 100-yard outing in five weeks as he’s emerged as the clear WR1 in the North Texas offense – something the Mean Green did not have earlier in the year.
Best of the Rest – QB Drew Mestemaker ($8,300) Mestemaker is stackable with Caleb Hawkins in the same lineup if you can make salaries fit, but we’ve also seen several ocassions where North Texas is content in feeding Hawkins as many as five rushing touchdowns in a game. Hawkins is the better play of the two, but choosers can’t be beggars when it comes to the QB position on this slate with limited options available. WR Cameron Dorner ($4,800) is also stackable with Wyatt Young in the same lineup, as the two have separated themselves a bit from the other North Texas wideouts. He was a non-factor vs. Rice but has three receiving touchdowns in the last five games, and 60+ yards in five of his last six. WR Landon Sides ($4,000) was thought by some to be UNT’s WR1 this season, and looked the part at times, but has given way to better players. Sides still leads the team in routes run as the third starter and still plays over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps so he’s on the field a lot.
Injury Notes – RB Makenzie McGill II (questionable)
Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
- Point-Spread: UGA -13.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: UGA 37 – GT 23.5
- Weather: Dome
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Gunner Stockton ($8,600) The Georgia Tech defense has been abused the last three weeks, allowing 41 PPG and almost 1,600 yards of total offense. Stockton should be able to rack up fantasy points both with his arm and legs against a defense that is giving up over 23 FPPG this season to quarterbacks. QBs are scoring about 22% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing the Yellow Jackets.
Bargain Bin – WR Noah Thomas ($3,600) Thomas has filled in admirably for Colbie Young as the team’s top outside receiver, scoring four touchdowns in his last four games. Boundary receivers have cooked this secondary in recent weeks with Duke’s Cooper Barkate (13-172-0) and Boston College’s Reed Harris (5-142-1). Tight ends are averaging 11.7 FPPG against Georgia Tech this season as well, so going bargain shopping with either TE Oscar Delp ($3,300) or TE Lawson Luckie ($3,500) is viable too.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Frazier ($7,000) Frazier isn’t as appealing as the last few weeks with RB Chauncey Bowens ($5,300) back in the lineup after practicing in pads this week according to reports. This is a matchup where you could spend up for the sophomore running back, though, as Georgia Tech is 15th among 17 teams in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground. We just would not stack Frazier and Stockton together in the same lineup – one or the other.
Best of the Rest – WR Zachariah Branch ($5,600) Branch is an option every week, leading the team with 63 receptions on 73 targets – triple the amount of the next closest UGA wide receiver (who’s injured at the moment). Branch is arguably the most efficient wideout in the country as well with an 86% catch rate, though most of his targets are within five yards of the line of scrimmage with a 3.3 aDOT.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($9,500) If there was a surplus of QB options available to us on the slate, we likely wouldn’t consider King here, who has unfortunately fallen out of the Heisman race with Georgia Tech losing two of its last three games. Georgia is giving up just 18.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. That said, we also remember King putting up a 50-burger against this UGA defense a year ago. Stockton, Mestemaker and Bryson Barnes are better options considering matchup / salary, but how can we fully doubt a QB that has put up at least 20 fantasy points in every game this season.
Fade – RBs. We don’t start running backs against this Georgia defense that is 5th in the country in yards allowed on the ground and only giving up a combined 14 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Teams have been able to throw some on Georgia this season, who rank just 56th in pass D success rate and 8th in the SEC in yards allowed through the air. Of the offensive skill positions that have scored the most points on this UGA defense, wide receiver is undoubtedly at the top of the list, which makes sense given most opponents are in a trailing position vs. the Dawgs. WRs are averaging over 36 FPPG as a group against Georgia this season, so having one of WR Malik Rutherford ($4,300), WR Isiah Canion ($4,100) or WR Eric Rivers ($4,400) is reasonable. Rutherford has looked good in the last two games since returning from injury with 11 receptions on as many targets in the last two games. Slot receivers have found some success against the UGA defense lately with Eugene Wilson (9-121-1) and DeAndre Moore (5-75-1).
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State vs. Utah State
- Point-Spread: BSU -3.5
- O/U Total: 55.5
- Implied Score: BSU 29.5 – Utah St 26
- Weather: 46 degrees / 5% rain / 7 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Sire Gaines ($6,500) or RB Dylan Riley ($7,500) The game spread isn’t one that suggests stacking the Boise State backfield, so just one of Gaines or Riley will suffice. I know who takes the first snap for Boise State each week, but not sure the Broncos have a surefire “starter” at running back, as it seems to be a hot hand situation between the two backs. Last week it was Gaines who rumbled for 149 yards and two scores on a team-high 22 carries. Gaines is the preferred choice of the two as he holds a 16-7 advantage in red zone attempts over the last four games.
Fade – WR Chris Marshall ($5,400) General rule of mine is to not roster a player that is coming back from injury, as Marshall has missed the last four weeks with a bum ankle. Marshall is expected to play on Friday.
Pivot Play – QB Max Cutforth ($6,100) Highly unlikely we go this route, but the Boise State passing game showed signed of life against Colorado State with Cutforth throwing for 237 yards on 34 attempts. Utah State is allowing over 25 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, one of the higher marks on the slate. Cutforth is a non-runner, though, so we’d need passing touchdowns, which can be tough to come by for Boise State. The Broncos have failed to throw a touchdown in three of its last four games.
Best of the Rest – WR Latrell Caples ($5,000) 14 receptions on 19 targets over the last two games for Boise State’s starting slot receiver as he seems to be developing a rapport with Cutforth. Utah State is giving up now over 46 combined fantasy points to opposing team’s wide receivers, so having one of Caples or the other Boise State wideouts (not Marshall) is an option. WR Cameron Bates ($4,200) was targeted a season-high eight times last week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah St:
Top Play(s) – WR Brady Boyd ($5,400) Boyd was already trending upwards even when Utah State was at full health with four touchdowns in his last three games. He’ll be counted on even more on Friday if Braden Pegan is out due to injury. Pegan is listed as questionable officially, but his injury last week looked like it might keep him out for more than a week.
Fade – QB Anthony Garcia ($6,400) Unfortunately, the stat providers of the world won’t change anything manually at this point, so we’ll just need to live with Anthony Garcia the quarterback, despite playing wide receiver most of the year. Shame too, because he’d absolutely be in play this week if Braden Pegan were announced out.
Bargain Bin – WR Kahanu Davis ($3,400) Davis looks to be the contingency plan if Pegan is out on Friday, as he play the most snaps in a game since Week 5 last Saturday, finishing with 37 yards on two targets. Davis would be WR3, behind Boyd and Garcia.
Pivot Play – QB Bryson Barnes ($7,900) Debated Barnes as Utah State’s top play on the slate because he’s the cheapest realistic QB option on the slate. The list is very short for reasons to go with any quarterback with a lower salary than Barnes. Our reasons for being tentative to have Barnes as a lock is the Boise State secondary, ranked 4th in pass D success rate and giving up just 16.9 FPPG to quarterbacks. Barnes is the front runner for offensive player of the year in the Mountain West, so he’s plenty capable against most defenses, but far from a lock even with a short list of QB options.
Best of the Rest – RB Miles Davis ($6,400) or RB Javen Jacobs ($5,400) I can’t write up Utah State without saying to myself, “Consider me Miles Davis.” Teams have been able to run on Boise State this year, particularly those with a mobile quarterback (see UNLV game). The issue is the three-way split for carries between Davis, Jacobs and Bryson Barnes, who wound up leading the team by a wide margin with 22 rushing attempts vs. Fresno last week. Both players add fantasy value in the passing game, combining for 57 receptions and five touchdowns, and could see increased roles in that area should Pegan be out.
Injury Notes – WR Braden Pegan (questionable), TE Broc Lane (out)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Kewan Lacy, Mississippi
- WR Nik McMillan, Buffalo
- RB Caleb Hawkins, North Texas
- WR Wyatt Young, North Texas
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Kewan Lacy, Mississippi
- RB Kamari Moulton, Iowa
- WR Nik McMillan, Buffalo
- WR Kajiya Hollawayne, Temple
