Trying a different format for the Friday Main Slate. Let us know on theCFFsite Discord or DM if this would be preferred moving into 2025, or should we stick with my traditional format? –Mike–
CORE PLAYS:
Quarterback:
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado ($9,200) We love playing Sanders from both a consistency and upside standpoint. 20 or more fantasy points now in all but one game this season, facing an Oklahoma State defense that is bad versus the run and pass. The Cowboys are 121st in EPA per pass play, allowing close to 26 FPPG. Four of the last five quarterbacks to play Oklahoma State this season have scored at least 22 fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Jaxson Dart, Mississippi ($9,100) We’ll all have the same feeling putting Jaxson Dart in our lineups this week – “Remember when he threw interceptions on the last two drives of the game to end Ole Miss’ playoff hopes.” That was ugly, but the matchup is too good to pass up. Mississippi State is dead last in the SEC in points allowed per game. The Bulldogs give up around 25 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, with Dart having the highest projection of any QB on the slate.
Parker Navarro, Ohio – Navarro is coming off one of his better performances of the season, combining for over 200 yards of total offense, including 104 on the ground in the win over Toledo last week. There’s a chance that Ohio just dominates on the ground against lowly Ball State this week, but Navarro is likely to be part of the rushing attack. Ball State allows almost 30 fantasy points a contest to quarterbacks, and Navarro has multiple ways to hit value with his arm and legs.
Running Back:
Anthony Tyus, Ohio – Don’t think this is a backfield stack type of matchup with Navarro and Anthony Tyus, so you’ll choose one or the other. Tyus had a 33-1 rushing attempt advantage over backup Rickey Hunt last week against Toledo, and this is a better matchup against a Ball State defense allowing nearly 170 YPG on the ground. Assuming Tyus gets the bulk of the workload again over Hunt, he’ll see 20+ carries with Ohio being a two-TD favorite.
Justin Marshall, Colorado State – Marshall will be one of the highest owned on the slate, but with good reason, facing one of the worst rush defenses in the country in Utah State. The Aggies are allowing close to 36 FPPG to opposing backfields – nearly 34% more than the seasonal average when facing Utah State. Marshall’s sidekick, Anthony Morrow, is probable heading into Friday, but Marshall was already in a 40-60 split prior to the injury. We wouldn’t be shocked to see him lead the backfield in carries.
Receiver/Tight End:
Travis Hunter, Colorado – We’re on Heisman watch, so Colorado is continuing to feed its WR1, now with eight or more receptions in three of the last four games, with five receiving touchdowns in that span. Five wide receivers this season have scored at least 21 fantasy points against Oklahoma State.
Jordan Watkins / Cayden Lee, Mississippi – Tre Harris made his return this past week against Florida, but re-injured his groin and it’s highly unlikely in our opinion that we see him play again in a Rebel uniform as Ole Miss was eliminated from playoff contention. Watkins and Lee move up as Mississippi’s primary receiving targets. The duo combined for 14 receptions on 21 targets against the Gators. With Tre Harris out of the lineup, that was also when Watkins had his 254-yard outburst in Week 10 against Arkansas, so there’s a level of floor and upside with these two playmakers.
MID-TIER ALTERNATIVES:
Quarterback:
Hunter Watson, Sam Houston State – Defensive numbers are inflated for the Flames because of their schedule, facing nobody in the non-con and then playing FCS-level teams in Conference USA. While only allowing 17 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, Liberty is just 70th in overall defensive success rate and 77th in EPA per pass play. Watson is going to need to make some plays on Friday to keep up with this potent Liberty run game. Watson likely has a very low ownership for a QB that could very easily rush for 100+ yards.
Running Back:
Quinton Cooley, Liberty – I didn’t include Cooley as a core play because of Sam Houston’s run defense, allowing just 19.3 FPPG to opposing backfields and second in CUSA in yards allowed per game on the ground. The advanced metrics don’t like the Bearkats run defense as much, ranked 102nd in rush D success and 68th in EPA per run play. That said, Liberty is just bludgeoning opponents on the ground of late, averaging over six yards a carry in each of the last three games with a combined 12 rushing touchdowns. Cooley has accounted for half of those, with his volume also up. Cooley is close to a core play at RB. We’re not opposed to either stacking Billy Lucas with Cooley, given how much Liberty keeps the ball on the ground, or pivoting to the RB2 as he has over 230 rushing yards in the last two weeks.
Rahjai Harris, East Carolina – I think I like Harris better this week than a Tawee Walker who is in the same price range and probably has higher ownership. Harris is coming off consecutive 100-yard rushing performances, facing a Navy run defense that has been sporadic at times this season, ranking middle of the pack in the AAC, but 110th in success rate nationally. To play the narrative game, this will be Harris’ last collegiate game on Senior Day at home.
Darius Taylor, Minnesota – Taylor is going to project well every week because of his usage in the passing game, now with 48 receptions on 53 targets, facing a Wisconsin defense that is second to last in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground. This Badgers’ defense might’ve quit this season too, allowing Nebraska’s top two running backs to both score 22 fantasy points or more last weekend.
Receiver/Tight End:
Daniel Jackson, Minnesota – Wisconsin does not allow a lot of fantasy points to wide receivers this season – just one player has scored more than 20 fantasy points in a game all year vs. the Badgers. But we love the target share for Jackson, as he surpassed the century mark last week with 107 targets, more than double than the next closest Minnesota receiver. No 40-point upside here, but you’re guaranteed production with how much the Gophers lean on Jackson in the passing game.
Nick Nash, San Jose State – Unfortunately, the rain and Walker Eget cost many college fantasy players a spot in a championship last week as Nash converted just one of his nine targets into a catch vs. UNLV. The weather looks a lot better this time around against a very poor Stanford pass defense that is allowing 49.3 FPPG to opposing wide receiver groups. Not a recipe for success when facing a player in Nash that is still the nation’s leader in fantasy points scored among receivers – by a considerable margin. His team Justin Lockhart is also in the mix at $6.4k with 90 or more receiving yards in four of the last five games.
BARGAIN BIN:
Quarterback:
Ashton Daniels ($5,400) Strong 23-point projection for Daniels this week in what should be a high-scoring affair with much better weather than last week’s game featuring San Jose State. The Spartans haven’t allowed a ton of fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, but it’s the rushing volume that is boosting Daniels’ projection, now with 20+ attempts in each of the last two games. This is likely the final start for Daniels as Stanford’s QB1, so I’m sure the Cardinal coaching staff doesn’t mind their quarterback taking on such a heavy workload.
Running Back:
Isaiah Augustave, Colorado – Have to consider any running back facing an Oklahoma State run defense that remains dead last in the Big 12 in yards allowed on the ground, having just given up 40 fantasy points this past week to Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks. Augustave was limited to just two carries vs. Kansas last week, as he left briefly due to injury, but was able to return to action.
Receiver/Tight End:
Kole Wilson, Texas State – With or without Joey Hobert in the lineup, this is a ridiculous price for Wilson who plays close to 90% of the team’s offensive snaps each week. Wilson did not emerge as a weekly fantasy starter like we expected in the preseason, but still leads all Texas State wideouts in routes, while second in targets (64). Not sure why a player like WR Chris Dawn is also $3,100 despite catching three touchdown passes a week ago. Lot of options with the Texas State WR room.
Cam Pickett, Ball State – WR1 Justin Bowick decided to sit out the remainder of the season in hopes of snagging a NIL deal for next season. That leads to Pickett, who was targeted nine times last week in the loss to Bowling Green, running more routes than any other Ball State wideout. Pickett had multiple games earlier in the year where he was targeted 12 times, so we know QB Kadin Semonza doesn’t mind throwing in his direction.
Emmett Mosley V, Stanford – Mosley looks primed to become the next Elic Ayomanor next year as the true freshman has four receiving touchdowns in the last two games alone. Five receivers this season have scored at least 23 fantasy points when facing San Jose State.
GAME STACKS:
- Texas State / South Alabama
- Stanford / San Jose State
- Oklahoma State / Colorado
