North Texas vs. UTSA
Point-Spread: UTSA -8.5
O/U Total: 69.5
Implied Score: UTSA 39 – UNT 30.5
Weather: Dome
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Ikaika Ragsdale ($3,500) I debated this top play for UNT because you’re going to have to stray from the crowd somewhere in order to win a GPP potentially, but Ragsdale’s pricing is just too affordable for what could be an RB1 on Friday. That depends on the injury situation where Oscar Adaway ($5,200) and Ayo Adeyi ($3,600) are both banged up and have missed the last few weeks. Hopefully HC Seth Littrell can provide clarity in his mid-week presser.
Fade – WR Roderic Burns ($5,600) There was no dominant WR for North Texas this season with five different players having between 23 and 36 receptions. Burns did lead the way with 26% target share which is actually the second highest number on the slate but posted just one touchdown all year and was really a non-factor the last month of the season. Burns did have his best performance of the season the last time around against UTSA with 139 yards and six catches, it should be noted.
Bargain Bin – WR Damon Ward ($3,000) Fourth on the team in targets but was tied for third in receiving touchdowns (3) and second in routes run among receivers. UTSA allowed just one tight end to score double-digit fantasy points against them all year, and that just so happened to be Var’Keyes Gumms ($3,300) who was targeted a season-high six times for 92 yards.
Pivot Play – Not rostering Ikaika Ragsdale. North Texas’ offensive line has been good this season, returning four starters, but not as good as last year. Just 109th in rush play success rate and 71st in line yards – a decline from last year’s group. It should also be noted that in the first matchup between these two teams, UTSA held North Texas to just 22 rushing yards total. Not saying that is replicated, but the Roadrunners did limit opposing RB1s to just 16.2 FPPG in 2022.
Best of the Rest – WR Jyaire Shorter ($4,600) A staunch supporter of Jyaire Shorter when healthy, which hasn’t been the case for much of the last two years. Shorter provided a major boost to the group as he added a team-high nine touchdowns in 11 games, averaging over 27 yards per catch. His big-play ability could give a UTSA secondary some troubles as they’ve allowed 31 passing plays of 25 yards or more this season – 109th most in the country. Of the two-game slates we’ve had this season, there hasn’t been a better fourth option at quarterback than Austin Aune ($5,100). North Texas’ rebound this season coincided with the resurgence of the passing game as the Mean Green jumped from second to last in the conference a year ago to fourth in 2022, averaging 267.8 yards per game behind Aune. Arguably the team’s most scrutinized players dating back to last year, Aune is now tied with former starter Mason Fine for the school record in passing touchdowns (31) in a single season. Four quarterbacks scored 30+ fantasy points against UTSA this season, including Aune in the previous meeting.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the RB situation. FWIW – Adeyi is listed on the game-week depth chart.
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – RB Kevorian Barnes ($4,400) Between the messy RB rotations at UNT and Utah to deal with, I’ll settle for one of the most straightforward plays on the board in Barnes who might be the only player to carry the ball Friday beyond the quarterback. Brenden Brady is out. So is Trelon Smith. The 215-pound redshirt FR looks to be one of the pillars for the program moving forward with three 100-yard performances over the last six games, averaging over six yards a carry. UTSA also boasts one of the best O-Lines in the country, ranked 10th in stuff rate and 11th in line yards. North Texas allowed 18 FPPG during the regular season to opposing RB1s.
Fade – Anyone not listed here. Any major statistical contribution will come from the five UTSA players listed and nobody else.
Bargain Bin – WR Tykee Ogle-Kellogg ($3,000) A former prized recruit of the previous staff, Ogle-Kellogg has dealt with injuries over his five-year career. Took over the starting job in Week 10 once DeCorian Clark went down with injury and made minimal impact…until the finale with 4-142-1 on five targets. Could be a flash in the pan? But Ogle-Kellogg was running similar route numbers to that of Clark when he was healthy, so he is on the field extensively.
Pivot Play – Fading UTSA Passing Stack. An admitted risk, but the UTSA passing game wasn’t the same after the injury to DeCorian Clark. In the three games that Clark did not play in, UTSA averaged just 246 yards passing per game – 325 yards per game in the nine weeks prior. On the flipside, the injuries mounted, yet the UTSA offense just continued to rack up the points, finishing 13th nationally averaging 37.9 ppg. The passing game still led the way with senior quarterback QB Frank Harris ($6,100) who somehow managed to improve upon his outstanding junior campaign, completing 70% of his passes with 27 touchdowns and averaged over 70 yards per game more through the air. WR Zakhari Franklin ($6,900), WR Joshua Cephus ($6,300) and Clark combined for 71% of the team’s receiving production. With UTSA being more than a touchdown favorite here, facing a below average rush defense, I might just look to roster pieces of the UTSA passing game in lineups rather than stack.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah vs. USC
Point-Spread: USC -2.5
O/U Total: 67.5
Implied Score: USC 35 – Utah 32.5
Weather: Dome
Utah:
Top Play(s) – TE Dalton Kincaid ($6,600) I would think the only argument *against* Kincaid here is that because he torched USC so badly the first time that he is now atop the scouting report of the Trojans and will be double-teamed all game long. USC allowed the most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends, with three players scoring 20 fantasy points or more – including Kincaid’s 43-point outburst.
Fade – QB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($4,500) Really wish that DK could make a change to the slate and have Jackson listed at his proper position at running back and make this slate a bit more interesting and less chalky. Rostering Jackson would see very low ownership to differentiate I suppose, but you really need 20+ fantasy points with the available options at QB. And the fact of the matter is Jackson only did that once when Tavion Thomas was out of the lineup…against Colorado. We’re going to see a three-way split in the Utah backfield Saturday. The most intriguing part about Jackson, if making an argument in favor, is that Utah did use him in the wildcat vs. the Buffs once Utah got in the red zone. I’d imagine we’re going to see that look again Friday.
Bargain Bin – WR Money Parks ($3,600) Assuming you’ve read our DFS content all year long, you know that we rarely tout a Utah pass-catcher beyond the top two because of the top-heavy target share. If there was a third option, Parks would be the guy, targeted at least four times in each of the last four games. Surpassed 50 yards receiving just once on a team that runs the ball 56% of the time, but you could throw him in 10% of your lineups if doing multi-entry GPPs.
Pivot Play – RB Micah Bernard ($5,700) Admittedly, I still want to double-check this situation before game-time just to make sure this is the correct play here. But against Colorado, it was Bernard who saw the first few series with the first-team offense and would consider him the starter. Will we see the previously mentioned Ja’Quinden Jackson and Jaylon Glover ($4,300)? Yes, this could be a three-way even split potentially. But Bernard will be the first on the field Friday against a USC defense that are 106th in rush play success rate and allowed over 20 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Bernard will be largely ignored as DFS players look to the cheaper options at the position.
Best of the Rest – WR Devaughn Vele ($6,000) Probably the top pivot play of the slate as everyone will be on Kincaid. There will also be some trying to outsmart themselves and roster Money Parks for low ownership. Second on the team in targets (81) with 23% of the team share – next closest receiver has just 33 targets in 2022. QB Cam Rising ($8,000) was sensational the last time we saw him vs. USC, scoring 55 fantasy points with over 450 total yards of offense. That was also the last time we saw Rising carry the ball more than 10 times in a game. Is he healthy? Would probably lean towards Austin Aune still being the fourth best QB option on the slate, but it’s close with Rising. I might even lean towards the cheaper option there. TE Thomas Yassmin ($4,700) has been a worthy fill-in for Brant Kuithe with three receiving touchdowns in the last four games. Just six targets in that span, but we know Utah will feature two tight ends some.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC:
Top Play(s) – Caleb Williams ($8,800) The only way you do not roster Caleb Williams for the Friday slate is if you game-stack the UNT/UTSA game. If mixing and matching between both, Williams is a lock after scoring 54 fantasy points the last time these two teams met. Still a good Utah defense, but not a vintage group that we’ve seen in the past. Allows 24 FPPG to opposing QB1s and are 28th in pass play success rate. The times when USC’s defense stalls is when there is pressure on Williams in the pocket, and Utah is third in the Pac-12 with 31 sacks. That is the lone concern.
Fade – Backup RBs. Thought this might be more of a committee once Travis Dye went down with injury, but Austin Jones has essentially assumed the exact same role. Just three carries combined between Raleek Brown and Darwin Barlow in the win over Notre Dame last week. Brown can be a factor in the passing game with seven receptions on as many targets in the last three games, but you’re not spending $5.1k for that.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Mario Williams ($5,100) Very noticeable that USC was ramping up Mario Williams in his Week 12 return to the field, playing just 24 offensive snaps in the win over UCLA. That number jumped to 51% of the offensive snaps against Notre Dame last Saturday and was tied for first on the team in routes run. Still very much a rotation with the USC receivers but I’d venture to guess that they continue to increase Williams’ reps on the field.
Best of the Rest – RB Austin Jones ($6,000) Thought USC might have some disadvantages in the trenches vs. the Irish last week but the Trojans ran it right down Notre Dame’s throat with Jones who tallied 154 yards on 25 carries. In the team’s first meeting, the shootout was on once the second quarter hit, so USC didn’t run the ball much with Travis Dye, but it was still a productive outing with 76 yards and a score on just 11 attempts. Slowing down isn’t part of Lincoln Riley’s nature offensively, but I’d imagine we see more emphasis on running the ball this time around. I will have plenty of exposure here with Jones in my lineups as the certified RB1 for USC. WR Jordan Addison ($7,400) played just 61% of the snaps against Notre Dame last week, targeted just three times. Had one of his better performances of the season against Utah in the prior meeting with 100+ receiving yards on 12 targets. Williams has typically looked Addison’s way more in competitive matchups like this should be.
Injury Notes – n/a