Virginia Tech vs. Virginia
- Point-Spread: UVA -9.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: UVA 31 – VT 21.5
- Weather: 32 degrees / 4% rain / 2 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Not expecting to have much exposure on the Virginia Tech side of things with two of the Hokies’ best offensive players listed as questionable for Saturday night, and all of the motivation with Virginia, who is still playing for a potential spot in the college football playoff. And quietly, Virginia has turned into one of the better defensive groups in the ACC, ranked 6th in scoring while limiting three of the last four opponents to 17 points or fewer. QB Kyron Drones ($7,000) is always in play as a running threat with Virginia Tech abandoning the forward pass in the last month and a half. Virginia is allowing just 15.8 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, though, so it is not a priority play by any means.
If RB Marcellous Hawkins ($5,500) misses the contest, expect the majority of carries to go to Drones and freshman RB Jeff Overton ($4,000) who came on in relief last week to rush for 69 yards and a touchdown on just seven attempts vs. Miami. Virginia is 4th in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground but just lost their best linebacker to a season-ending injury. Virginia Tech is now 102nd in the country in pass rate, so there is minimal interest in the WRs. If Ayden Greene were out, it would be WR Takye Heath ($3,400) and WR Isaiah Spencer ($3,000) starting.
Injury Notes – RB Marcellous Hawkins (questionable), WR Ayden Greene (questionable)
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB J’Mari Taylor ($8,600) Best running back on the slate, by far, and worth spending up for. Taylor is 1st in the ACC in rushing attempts, first in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns (13). I would also like to think UVA wants to help Taylor become the first 1,000-yard rusher since 2018 – currently sitting at 917. Virginia Tech is 13th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and giving up over 28 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – TE Sage Ennis ($3,600) Nine of Ennis’ 16 receptions this season have come in the last four games, while also finding the end-zone last week vs. Duke. Virginia Tech is giving up 13.4 FPPG to tight ends this season which is the most on the slate.
Pivot Play – QB Chandler Morris ($8,200) Virginia Tech hasn’t been able to defend the run or pass this year, coming off a game where the Hokies allowed 335 yards and four touchdowns to Carson Beck. Va Tech is 124th in pass D success rate, are giving up over 22 FPPG to the QB position and have allowed the second highest QB rating in the ACC. Morris hasn’t been the fantasy-relevant option he was last year at North Texas, but this is a good matchup on paper.
Best of the Rest – WR Trell Harris ($5,400) First seven games of the season, Harris averaged 4.0 receptions on 5.1 targets per game. Last four weeks, Harris is averaging 5.75 catches on 8.0 targets. UVA is healthy at receiver, so any one of Harris, Jahmal Edrine or Cam Ross are playable, but Harris is the preferred choice.
Injury Notes – TE Dakota Twitty (out), RB Xavier Brown (out), RB Noah Vaughn (out)
Maryland vs. Michigan State
- Point-Spread: MSU -3.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: MSU 26 – MD 22.5
- Weather: Dome
Maryland:
Pour one out for your Maryland friends having to endure another year of Mike Locksley as your favorite team’s head coach. QB Mike Washington ($6,600) has been the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal year for the Terps, and one of the few reasons Locksley is being retained for 2026. Michigan State ranks 103rd in pass D success rate and is giving up the fourth highest QB rating to quarterbacks in the B1G. Because of Maryland’s inability to run the football effectively this season, the Terps are 4th nationally in pass rate so we know volume will be there. 216 of Washington’s 349 rushing yards have also come in the last three games.
RB DeJuan Williams ($5,700) won’t get more than 60 yards on the ground, but has separated himself from Nolan Ray as the team’s top RB. His usage in the passing game is why he’s an option, with three or more receptions in each of the last six games. Michigan State is giving up over 31 FPPG to opposing backfields. Maryland is a WR by committee team in 2025 with the top wideout having no more than 17% of the team’s target share.
Michigan State:
90% of Michigan State fans that make the trip to Ford Field on Saturday will be rooting against their own team in hopes that the Spartan administration fires Jonathan Smith after the game. RB Elijah Tau-Tolliver ($5,800) struggled last week against Iowa, understandably, but started for the second straight week and led the Spartans with 16 rushing attempts. This is a far better matchup against a Maryland defense that is 16th in the B1G in yards allowed on the ground and giving up 28.3 FPPG to opposing backfields. ETT has been a factor in the passing game as well with nine catches on 11 targets in the last two games.
There are no standout must-have options at QB on the night slate, so while a 14.9-point projection for QB Alessio Milivojevic ($5,000) doesn’t jump off the page, he’s also cheap enough to consider. Maryland is a below average pass defense for B1G standards, and we’d need just 18-20 fantasy points to pay off that salary. WR Nick Marsh ($6,100) has underperformed this season and might be on his way out to the transfer portal after this year. But if there was a matchup to play him, this would be it. Maryland is allowing nearly 42 FPPG to opposing team WRs and have been dominated by outside receivers of late. Indiana’s Omar Cooper posted 86 yards and a TD. Rutgers WR Ian Strong caught three TDs against the Terps. And just two weeks ago Illinois WR Hudson Clement had his best game of the year with 72 yards and a pair of scores.
Would be remiss if we didn’t mention WR Chrishon McCray ($4,300) or TE Jack Velling ($3,800) as spend-down options, as the two combined for 14 receptions and two touchdowns last week vs. Iowa.
Alabama vs. Auburn
- Point-Spread: Bama -5.5
- O/U Total: 46.5
- Implied Score: Bama 26 – Aub 20.5
- Weather: 47 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Alabama:
Fade – RBs. It is fully understood here that anything can happen in college football during rivalry week. But do we really believe that Alabama is magically going to find a running game against an Auburn defense that is 5th in rush D success rate, 3rd in stuff rate and 4th in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground? No, we don’t.
Pivot Play – QB Ty Simpson ($8,700) We’re going cheap at quarterback on this slate, so it’s difficult to justify spending up for Simpson or any of the high-priced QB options. Teams can throw on Auburn, though, as the Tigers are 112th in pass play success rate, 93rd in explosive pass plays allowed and 11th out of 16 SEC teams in yards given up through the air. Simpson doesn’t need to be paired with an Alabama WR but probably should have Auburn exposure in the same lineup with the hopes of a shootout.
Best of the Rest – WR Germie Bernard ($6,700) or WR Ryan Williams ($6,600) If there’s an Alabama WR that will be a difference maker on Saturday, the likeliest candidates are either Bernard or Williams. Bernard missed the Mercer game but still leads the team in targets (75), receptions (48) and touchdowns (6). Bernard was targeted 12 times vs. South Carolina and 13 times vs. Oklahoma, both of which were one-score games, which Vegas predicts this matchup to be.
Injury Notes – TE Josh Cuevas (out), RB Kevin Riley (out)
Auburn:
Fade – QB Ashton Daniels ($7,600) It’s one thing to dominate the 15th ranked scoring defense in the SEC. We’ll bet against a journeyman like Ashton Daniels duplicating that kind of performance against the No. 1 scoring defense in the conference that has essentially had two weeks to prepare for the dual-threat quarterback. Not to mention the possibility we see Deuce Knight make an appearance after his six-touchdown performance last week vs. Mercer.
Bargain Bin – WR Malcolm Simmons ($3,300) Between Week’s 5-10, Simmons had just 24 yards receiving. The sophomore receiver has 195 receiving yards in the last two games alone, including 149 yards and a TD vs. Mercer last Saturday. Ability has never been the issue with Simmons.
Pivot Play – RB Jeremiah Cobb ($6,700) The Alabama run defense has improved over the course of the year, holding its last four opponents to under three yards per carry. That said, those four teams including three teams that are at the bottom of the SEC in rushing and an FCS opponent. For the season, Alabama ranks just 9th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and are 128th in explosive run plays allowed. Cobb will get 15+ rushing attempts, so long as this game is competitive.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Coleman ($6,300) or WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($5,100) Top heavy target share between Coleman and Singleton at 51% with eight of Auburn’s 10 receiving touchdowns. Alabama is only giving up 24.9 FPPG to opposing team’s WRs so do not stack Coleman and Singleton together in a lineup. Coleman has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games, with a 13.1 YPC average and 13.1 aDOT. If there’s a big play in the passing game, it’s far more likely to be Coleman than Singleton.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina vs. NC State
- Point-Spread: NC St -7.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: NC St 27.5 – UNC 20
- Weather: 37 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Shipp ($5,500) or WR Kobe Paysour ($4,600) UNC has become a pass funnel that goes through Shipp and Paysour combining for 40% of the team’s target share and six of the 11 receiving touchdowns. Shipp has been targeted seven or more times in each of the last five games, while Paysour has 16 catches over the last three weeks. We want exposure to either Shipp or Paysour in most of our lineups.
Fade – RBs. Just two occurrences this season where North Carolina has had the same leading rusher in back-to-back games. Teams can run on NC State, allowing over five yards a carry on the ground to both Florida State and Miami in the last two weeks, but don’t say you weren’t warned when it’s RB Demon June ($5,200) leading the Heels in rushing yards, and not RB Davion Gause ($4,600) despite what happened last week. This is a staple of Bill Belichick ever since his days with the Patriots.
Pivot Play – QB Gio Lopez ($5,800) If there was ever a week to play a Gio Lopez, this would be it. NC State is dead last in the ACC in yards allowed through the air and have given up 300+ passing yards in four of its last five games. The fantasy production hasn’t been there, but Lopez has improved over the course of the season, completing over 70% of his passes in the last month with five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State:
Top Play(s) – RB Hollywood Smothers ($7,200) Smothers is 93 yards away from becoming the first 1,000-yard rusher for NC State since 2018. While Smothers ran for just 84 yards last week, the 21 carries is what we’re focused on here, as the RB1 was questionable coming into the FSU matchup. UNC’s last two opponents have beat up the Heels on the ground, averaging five yards a carry with six total rushing touchdowns.
Bargain Bin – WR Justin Joly ($4,600) Joly has 182 yards and three touchdowns in his last four games. In the two matchups vs. Top 12 scoring defenses = 15 yards, zero touchdowns. In the two matchups vs. Non-Top 12 scoring defenses – 167 yards, three touchdowns. North Carolina is NOT a top 12 scoring defense. Not an exact science, but Joly has been a difference maker against defenses that are not Notre Dame or Miami. UNC is allowing over 11 FPPG to the tight end position.
Pivot Play – QB CJ Bailey ($6,800) As we said in last week’s writeup, CJ Bailey plays best at home this season. 264.5 pass yards per game with a 12 – 1 touchdown to interception ratio at home. Nine touchdowns and eight interceptions on the road, averaging just 219 YPG through the air. This game is at home, though North Carolina is allowing just 15.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Defense has not been UNC’s issue this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. If the term “Wide Receiver by Committee” was listed in the Dictionary, the NC State logo would be pictured next to it. WR Terrell Anderson ($4,000) is the team leader among NC State wideouts in touchdowns (5), targets (47) and receptions (36) but has just 14% of the team target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northwestern vs. Illinois
- Point-Spread: Illini -7.5
- O/U Total: 44.5
- Implied Score: Illini 26 – NW 18.5
- Weather: 32 degrees / 96% snow / 13 mph winds
Northwestern:
Heavy winds and snow are expected around the Midwest on this Thanksgiving weekend, particularly here in Illinois where the forecast for Champaign suggests 3-5 inches of snow and potentially 25-35 MPH winds. That makes it easy on us for DFS here, eliminating most of the Northwestern passing game components which aren’t overly appealing even in 75-degree weather. If the experts are incorrect, which they typically are, and the weather isn’t as bad as anticipated, we can potentially look at WR Griffin Wilde ($5,800) or WR Hayden Eligon ($4,000) who combined for 21 targets last week vs. Minnesota, with both surpassing 100 yards receiving. The 42.9 FPPG to opposing team WRs that Illinois allows is the highest number on the slate.
If the weather forecasters are indeed correct, the only realistic option will be RB Caleb Komolafe ($6,000) who has now surpassed 100 yards rushing in three of his last four games and has scored at least one rushing TD in eight of his last nine games. Illinois is marginally better against the run than the pass but just allowed 209 yards on the ground to an offensively inept Wisconsin team.
Illinois:
Illinois is favored by over a touchdown with the much higher team total, but the difference between the two teams here is the concentration of fantasy production with Northwestern and lack thereof with the Illini. No running back for the Illini is averaging more than 11 carries on the season, which is unfortunate given the likelihood of a run-heavy script for Saturday night if there’s snowfall. RB Kaden Feagin ($5,800) gets the nod over RB Ca’Lil Valentine ($4,600) with the higher likelihood he falls into the end-zone, holding a 42-16 advantage in red zone carries. Four of the last six opponents to face Northwestern this season have rushed for at least two touchdowns.
QB Luke Altmyer (7,500) projects well on paper but should be downgraded if the weather reports are accurate. Northwestern is allowing just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. WR Hank Beatty ($5,600) continues to lead the team in targets (77) and receptions (60), nearly double the number of catches as the next closest Illinois receiver. Beatty has had at least four catches in all but one game this season and will be counted on heavily in the short to intermediate routes if it’s as windy in Champaign as it currently projects. Very little rotation at WR for the Illini last week against Wisconsin with WR Collin Dixon ($3,300) and WR Hudson Clement ($3,900) playing over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. The concern is obviously how the downfield passing is impacted due to the wind.
UCLA vs. USC
- Point-Spread: USC -21.5
- O/U Total: 59.5
- Implied Score: USC 40.5 – UCLA 19
- Weather: 65 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
UCLA:
Just one player for the Bruins projected to score more than seven fantasy points here at theCFFSite. Suffice to say our interest is minimal at best. The shine of that three-game win streak back in October has worn off, as UCLA is losers of four-straight games, averaging just 12.8 PPG in that stretch. WR Kwazi Gilmer ($5,000) continues to lead the team in receptions (40), targets (71) and routes run, playing over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps this season. WR Mike Matthews ($4,700) has been targeted seven times in each of the last two games, while finding the end zone last week vs. Washington. Unfortunately, both are downgraded with Nico Iamaleava expected to start at QB.
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB King Miller ($8,400) Great matchup for Miller so long as Waymond Jordan doesn’t return to the lineup as he was in pads for practice this week. Not sure if this is a spot where USC needs to heavily involve Jordan, though, as a three-touchdown favorite. The Bruins rank 135th in rush D success rate and over 31 FPPG to running backs, so this is a great spot for Miller if he gets most of the carries.
Bargain Bin – WR Tanook Hines ($4,000) Was last week’s 141-yard explosion from Hines a springboard for the rest of the season or just a product of USC being in a trailing game script? I’d like to say the former, but Hines’ three best games this season have come against Oregon, Illinois and Notre Dame – all of which the Trojans were losing.
Pivot Play – Jayden Maiava ($9,000) Maiava has the highest projection of any QB on the slate, but that’s not saying much at just 22.8 projected points. Coincidentally, that is the exact number (22.8) that UCLA is allowing to quarterbacks this season. USC will be able to throw on UCLA as the Bruins are 118th in pass D success rate. In USC’s last four wins, Maiava is only averaging 18.5 FPPG, so there’s reasons for and against playing the USC quarterback this week.
Best of the Rest – WR Makai Lemon ($8,700) or WR Ja’Kobi Lane ($6,800) This will not be a pass-heavy script for USC on Saturday, so would stick to one or the other between Lemon or Lane for your lineups. The duo now combines for 55% of the team’s receiving production and 14 of the 23 touchdowns. TE Lake McRee ($3,600) has at least two receptions in every game this season, facing a defense that is allowing 12 FPPG to tight ends.
Injury Notes – RB Waymond Jordan (questionable)
SMU vs. California
- Point-Spread: SMU -13.5
- O/U Total: 53.5
- Implied Score: SMU 33.5 – Cal 20
- Weather: 55 degrees / 2% rain / 3 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Hudson ($6,000) SMU could win by double-digits on Saturday night, but the best plays are on the Cal side for DFS. We’ll stick with Hudson as the team’s top play because he’s been the Mustangs’ most consistent fantasy producer this season with double-digit fantasy points in all but two games this season, including 23 or more fantasy points in his last three games. Hudson is listed as probable, but all expectations are that he plays.
Bargain Bin – WR Romello Brinson ($4,100) Brinson has obviously taken a back seat to Hudson since his hot start to the year but still leads SMU in routes run and second in targets (3). Brinson might be the healthiest SMU wideout on Saturday too, with Hudson ‘probable’ and Yamir Knight very ‘questionable.’
Pivot Play – RB TJ Harden ($7,500) A bit of a resurgence for Harden in the last two games with a combined 220 rushing yards on 34 attempts, including 90 yards against a very good Louisville defense last week. Cal ranks towards the bottom of the ACC in yards allowed per game on the ground and are 115th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Kevin Jennings ($8,600) Must-win game for SMU to secure a spot in the ACC title game, and Jennings is on a heater with three straight 300-yard passing performances. Jennings’ projection is adequate, but Cal’s strength on defense is the secondary, ranked 13th in success rate, 35th at limiting explosive pass plays and giving up just 15.9 FPPG to quarterbacks. WR / TE RJ Maryland ($3,800) likely starts in the slot if Knight were to be unavailable.
Injury Notes – WR Yamir Knight (questionable)
California:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacob de Jesus ($7,500) JDJ now ranks third in the country in targets (129) and receptions (86), with a combined 30 catches in the last two games alone. And now just think, Cal might throw the ball MORE this week against SMU with interim head coach Nick Rolovich in charge – an Air Raid disciple. JDJ is the top play of the entire slate on DraftKings specifically in full-point PPR scoring.
Stat Watch – JDJ needs 13 receptions in the last two games, including a bowl game, to match the Cal single-season record for receptions of 100 set by Dameane Douglas in 1998. De Jesus needs 11 catches to tie Keenan Allen’s second-place total of 98 receptions achieved in 2011.
Bargain Bin – WR Trond Grizzell ($4,400) There is a strong argument to stack your lineups with both JDJ and Grizzell this week against an SMU defense that is allowing over 47 FPPG to opposing team wide receivers. WR3 Jordan King is out. WR4 Mark Hamper is out. 19 of Grizzell’s 45 catches this season have come in the last three games alone after his first 100-yard performance of the season last week against Stanford. Based on last week’s snap counts, I would expect WR Quaron Adams ($3,100) to get the nod as the third starting receiver but would focus mostly on JDJ and Grizzell for our DFS lineups as Cal did last week.
Pivot Play – QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele ($6,900) A projection of 13.9 points certainly doesn’t warrant consideration on the surface but hear me out. First, we get the Rolovich boost, as we expect Cal to be throwing on Saturday under his direction. 35-40 pass attempts is almost certainly guaranteed facing an SMU team that is 132nd in opponent pass play rate at 55.1%. SMU is only allowing 18.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, so we might just settle with exposure with the Cal receivers by themselves but would not be surprised in the slightest to see JKS throw for 300+ and the bonus on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – RB Kendrick Raphael ($6,400) Raphael continues to be the only Cal running back that gets carries on a consistent basis, so there’s no threat of him being vultured in scoring scenarios. The issue is the matchup, as SMU ranks third in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground and have given up just four rushing TDs all season, the fewest in the conference. The Mustangs allow just 18 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Injury Notes – WR Jordan King (out), TE Mason Mini (out), WR Mark Hamper (out), TE Landon Morris (questionable), TE Jeffrey Johnson (questionable), RB LJ Johnson (out)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- WR Jacob de Jesus, California
- RB J’Mari Taylor, Virginia
- WR Jordan Shipp, North Carolina
- QB Malik Washington, Maryland
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB J’Mari Taylor, Virginia
- WR Jacob De Jesus, California
- WR Jordan Shipp, North Carolina
- RB Hollywood Smothers, NC State
