Houston vs. Baylor
- Point-Spread: Hou -2.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: Hou 31.5 – Bay 29
- Weather: 63 degrees / 46% rain / 12 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Conner Weigman ($8,800) Copy + Paste from every other DFS article this season that included Houston on the slate. Weigman has been arguably the most consistent fantasy quarterback in the country, scoring 22 or more fantasy points in all but two games this season. No reason to think that cannot continue against a Baylor defense that has allowed 40 or more points in four of the last five games. The Bears are allowing over 24 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Koby Young ($3,400) The WR2 and WR3 in the Houston offense don’t matter much at this point. Young took over the secondary WR option after Stephon Johnson’s injury but has managed just nine catches over the last five games. Young was second behind Amare Thomas in routes run vs. TCU last week yet was shut out of the box score.
Pivot Play – RB Dean Connors ($6,500) Connors isn’t the fade that we thought he might be a week ago after splitting carries with backup DJ Butler against UCF in Week 11. Butler still had eight rushing attempts vs. TCU last Saturday, but Connors still held a 12-8 advantage in carries and was (finally) a difference-maker in the passing game with five receptions and a touchdown…his second TD in as many games. Baylor is giving up nearly 32 FPPG to opposing backfields, and Connors is playable solo, or even with Weigman in game stacks.
Best of the Rest – WR Amare Thomas ($6,400) or TE Tanner Koziol ($5,200) The Houston passing game revolves around Thomas and Koziol who combine for 52% of the target share, 56% of the team’s receiving production and 14 of the 21 receiving touchdowns. Tight ends has fared well against Baylor specifically, averaging nearly 12 FPPG.
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – QB Sawyer Robertson ($8,100) Getting flashbacks to the Utah / Baylor game from two weeks ago. Why? No clear and obvious fantasy target on the Baylor side against the 6th best scoring defense in the Big 12, yet the Bears are expected to put up some points on Saturday with a 29-point implied team total. The last time we were in that situation, Robertson threw for 430 yards and put up 32 fantasy points in the loss to the Utes. Baylor is in a must-win situation on Senior Day this Saturday, being one win away from bowl eligibility, and one loss away from Dave Aranda potentially losing his job.
Fade – RBs. We can’t trust this Baylor backfield at this point and not worth the risk as an underdog on a main slate. Bryson Washington seems to be trending up one week, then fumbles against TCU and gives way to freshman Caden Knighten. At one point in the year, we thought Knighten was set to take over as RB1 with Bryson Washington banged up, and it was fellow freshman Michael Turner getting double-digit carries against Cincinnati and TCU. Houston is by no means dominant against the run, ranked 73rd in stuff rate and 89th in rush D success rate, but its anyone guess who leads the backfield in carries on Saturday.
Pivot Play – TE Michael Trigg ($5,100) With one week to go in the regular season, Trigg is holding onto a slight lead as the TE1 in college fantasy football, though Eli Stowers is hot on his trail. Trigg is averaging 4.5 receptions on 7.7 targets per game, tied for second on the team with six touchdowns and third in routes run. Houston’s done a good job this season against tight ends, only allowing 8.5 FPPG to the position.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Cameron ($6,800) Strong final month to the season for Cameron who has scored a touchdown in each of the last four games, including 236 receiving yards and three scores in the last two weeks on 29 targets. Houston is best against the pass this season, so there haven’t been many big performances from WRs over the course of the year, as the Cougars rank 21st in pass D success rate and 49th in limiting explosive pass plays.
Injury Notes – TE Michael Trigg (questionable)
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
- Point-Spread: TT -23.5
- O/U Total: 53.5
- Implied Score: TT 38.5 – WVU 15
- Weather: 34 degrees / 3% rain / 3 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Cameron Dickey ($8,100) Difficult game to forecast. Initial inkling is to want to play a Texas Tech running back, Dickey in particular, with the Red Raiders being three-touchdown favorites. Dickey has been starting to get on a roll here in the last month with five rushing touchdowns in the last four games as well. The issue is two-fold. How quickly does this become a blowout, and do we see Dickey get just 11 carries like he did against UCF? Secondly, West Virginia is stout against the run, ranked 27th in stuff rate and 35th in rush D success rate. Dickey gets the nod as Tech’s top play, but we’re find fading the Red Raiders even if they score five touchdowns.
Fade – RB J’Koby Williams ($6,000) See last two sentences above. Williams is priced up to $6k from recent weeks, and West Virginia is allowing just 24 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. The Mountaineers haven’t given up a rushing touchdown in the last two games, including vs. Arizona State that just ran for 300+ last week. At minimum, don’t go overweight in exposure on the Tech backfield.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($7,700) Morton will have less than 5% ownership on Saturday, and perhaps rightfully so, having failed to score more than 16 fantasy points in four of his last five games. That said, the West Virginia secondary is below average, ranked second to last in the conference in yards allowed through the air (254.6 YPG), 114th nationally in completions allowed to opponents and giving up over 24 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WRs. We said the West Virginia secondary was bad and we meant it. The Mountaineers are allowing just under 45 combined fantasy points per game to opposing WRs which is among the highest numbers on the slate. Opposing team’s WRs are scoring 40% more fantasy points than their seasonal average in matchups with West Virginia this season. The question then becomes…who? Outside receivers have given the Mountaineers the most trouble this season, which makes sense as WVU ranks 125th in the country in explosive pass plays allowed. That would favor either WR Caleb Douglas ($6,600) or WR Reggie Virgil ($6,100), who is coming off a career performance with three touchdowns vs. UCF.
Injury Notes – WR Reggie Virgil (questionable)
West Virginia:
We don’t play quarterbacks or running backs against Texas Tech as a general rule this season, especially coming off a week of rest following a bye. So, we’re out on QB Scotty Fox Jr. ($5,300) or RB Cyncir Bowers ($4,200). Bowers should get the bulk of the carries with Diore Hubbard announced out for the season due to injury, but not under consideration against the No. 1 run defense in the country. If West Virginia somehow managed to find their way into the red zone, they’ll probably give the goal line carries to linebacker Curtis Jones as they’ve done in recent weeks.
If you’re dead set on having WVU exposure, there’s three high-risk options in WR Cam Vaughn ($5,400), WR Jeff Weimer ($3,100) or TE Grayson Barnes ($3,100). Vaughn leads the team in targets (66), receptions (33), touchdowns (4) and routes run. Weimer has emerged of late with 240 of his 306 receiving yards this season coming in the last four games. And if Texas Tech has a perceived weakness defensively, it’s in coverage against tight ends which are averaging 13.4 FPPG this season, which could benefit Barnes who played a season-high 75% of snaps in Week 12 vs. Arizona State.
Injury Notes – RB Diore Hubbard (out)
Miami vs. Pittsburgh
- Point-Spread: Mia -6.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: Mia 28.5 – Pitt 22
- Weather: 33 degrees / 6% rain / 5 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Toney ($7,000) I wonder if there’s any motivation by the Miami coaching staff to get the freshman WR to 100 targets on Saturday as Toney sits just 10 away from the century mark. Toney is coming off his best performance of the season with 12-146-1 on 15 targets in the win over the Hokies in a game where Miami couldn’t muster more than 100 yards on the ground. You’d think this would be another pass-heavy script Saturday against a far better run defense in Pitt.
Fade – RBs. If Miami struggled to run on Virginia Tech last week, I find it difficult to see how we won’t have the same outcome this Saturday against the No. 2 run defense in the ACC. Pitt is limiting opposing backfields to just 18 combined fantasy points per game now this season, and we seem to have at least a two-way split between Mark Fletcher and Girard Pringle Jr.
Bargain Bin – TE Elija Lofton ($3,400) Big miss ranking Lofton as a Top 10 projected fantasy tight end this season, but the sophomore has been coming on of late with a touchdown reception in each of the last two games. Pittsburgh is allowing the single most fantasy points to tight ends (16.7 FPPG) of any team on the slate. Remember two weeks ago how popular a play Eli Raridon was?
Pivot Play – WR Keelan Marion ($3,400) One of the biggest learnings for me this year in this era of NIL and the transfer portal is to not give up too early on transfers in their first season at a new location. Marion is a perfect example of such, now with 70 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games. Marion’s recent surge has coincided with WR CJ Daniels ($5,200) being out of the lineup, but the BYU transfer has been one of the most efficient receivers on the team, converting 21 of his 22 targets in the last month. Daniels, said to be healthy last week, played all of four offensive snaps.
Best of the Rest – QB Carson Beck ($6,400) I hold my breath any time I roster Carson Beck on a DFS lineup, but on paper, this makes sense facing a Pitt secondary that has allowed the second most passing touchdowns (22) in the ACC. After the disastrous SMU performance in early November, Beck has rebounded with 8 passing touchdowns, zero interceptions and an 80% completion rate over the last three games. Assuming Miami struggles to run the football again, the offense will be relying on Beck primarily to move the football…. for better or worse.
Injury Notes – RB Jordan Lyle (questionable)
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – RB Ja’Kyrian Turner ($5,900) We’ll find out on Saturday morning whether Desmond Reid is available or not, just as we do every week of the college football season. Turner is only playable if Reid is out, as we’ve seen what he’s capable of the last several weeks when the freshman is RB1, rushing for 127 yards on 22 attempts vs. Stanford in Week 10, and a career-high 200 yards on the ground this past Saturday against Georgia Tech. Miami – the best money can buy – as the Canes are the new No. 1 run defense in the ACC.
Fade – QB Mason Heintschel ($7,400) Pitt’s freshman QB has been excellent for a first-year starter, there’s no doubting that. But for fantasy purposes, this is probably not the week to start Heintschel. You start looking back at his performances this year – 34 points against BC, 28 fantasy points vs. Florida State, 32 points against NC State, 25 fantasy points against Stanford. Great numbers, but those have come against the 128th, 30th, 105th and 86th ranked scoring defenses in the country. Miami is 7th, allowing just 14.2 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Pitt doesn’t rotate at all at receiver, so you’re looking at just three options in Kenny Johnson, Raphael Williams Jr. or Cataurus Hicks. I’d be tentative to have much exposure to this group with Miami giving up a combined 29.2 FPPG to wide receivers this season. Just one opponent has thrown for more than 205 yards against Miami in the last five games, and the Canes have not allowed more than one passing TD since mid-October. Boundary receivers have found the most success against Miami this season – Chris Bell and Jordan Hudson both had 100+ yards – so would favor WR Kenny Johnson ($5,400) of the three.
Injury Notes – RB Desmond Reid (questionable)
Ohio State vs. Michigan
- Point-Spread: OSU -10.5
- O/U Total: 44.5
- Implied Score: OSU 27.5 – Mich 17
- Weather: 30 degrees / 28% rain / 7 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeremiah Smith ($8,800) Writing this as of Tuesday, the early indications are that Jeremiah Smith is the closest to playing of the two Ohio State starting wide receivers, who seem to have legitimate injuries as opposed what many thought was just load management against inferior competition. If Smith is indeed full-go, and Tate is limited, I would anticipate 10+ targets to star receiver. I’m not going overboard on Ohio State exposure because Michigan’s best chance at pulling the upset again on Saturday is turning this into a rock fight like last season.
Fade – QB Julian Sayin ($8,000) There’s a far better chance that this is a low-scoring affair like the 2024 matchup than this is a shootout. There’s better QB options littered across this slate to where there’s very little incentive to play a non-running quarterback like Sayin, facing a Michigan defense that is giving up just 13.6 FPPG to the position. If playing Sayin, you need to stack him Jeremiah Smith, and potentially one other OSU pass-catcher.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($4,500) We’ve mentioned this repeatedly this season that Michigan linebackers tend to struggle in coverage, meaning slot receivers and tight ends find some success against this Wolverine defense. Klare has been a difference maker in the second half of the season with four or more catches in six of his last seven games, including a season-high 105 receiving yards vs. Rutgers. The Wolverines are allowing 12.6 FPPG to the tight end position.
Pivot Play – RB Bo Jackson ($6,800) Notice in the last few weeks Ohio State and Ryan Day have been willing to ride their RB1 a bit more than usual, even in blowout circumstances? Three 100-yard rushing performances in the last four games, with Jackson scoring three touchdowns in the last two weeks. The games leading up to The Game are all about preparation for the biggest matchup of the season. Jackson’s uptick in his workload could signal more increased volume on Saturday against the Wolverines. Michigan is good, not great, against the run this season, ranked 42nd in success rate, 10th in limiting explosive run plays, but just 111th in stuff rate.
Best of the Rest – RB James Peoples ($4,400) Peoples has certainly benefitted from CJ Donaldson being out, but has done the most with his opportunity, averaging 12.5 YPC with three rushing touchdowns in the last two games. He’s an option in OSU stacks assuming a possible Buckeye blowout. WR Brandon Innis ($5,700) did very little with his opportunities with Tate / Smith out of the lineup, failing to score more than 10 fantasy points in the last four games. He becomes an option if we get word Tate is out or limited.
Injury Notes – WR Carnell Tate (questionable), WR Jeremiah Smith (questionable)
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan Marshall ($7,100) Marshall was available to play last week vs. Maryland but was not needed in the double-digit blowout. We normally don’t consider running backs facing Ohio State, as the Buckeyes are giving up just 15.3 FPPG this season to opposing backfields, but we know how well the Michigan run game has fared over the last four years in The Game. 20+ carries is the expectation for Marshall on Saturday so long as the score is close and he remains healthy.
Fade – QB Bryce Underwood ($5,200) The Michigan fan and author of this article even says there’s no reason to play Underwood on Saturday. The freshman has not scored more than 20 fantasy points against a P4 opponent, and Ohio State allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks (6.2 FPPG) of any team on the slate.
Pivot Play – WR Andrew Marsh ($4,800) Even against a secondary as talented as Ohio State, there’s no reason Marsh should be just $4.8k after how he’s performed in the last two weeks specifically with over 260 receiving yards and 17 receptions on 23 targets. Would not stack Michigan receivers in the same lineup, but one of Marsh or WR Donaven McCulley ($5,000) is a viable option. The duo combines for 52% of the team’s receiving production and 6 of the 9 touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri vs. Arkansas
- Point-Spread: Mizzou -3.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: Mizzou 30.5 – Ark 27
- Weather: 47 degrees / 76% rain / 12 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Ahmad Hardy ($7,500) One of those…let’s not overthink this. Arkansas is second to last in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground, facing the leading rusher in the conference.
Fade – WR Marquis Johnson ($3,800) I was wrong admittedly on Johnson coming into the year after I saw him dominate in the bowl game vs. Iowa last season. The junior receiver has lost his starting job, recording just a single target in the last three games, playing all of 13 offensive snaps vs. Oklahoma last week.
Bargain Bin – WR Joshua Manning ($4,000) or WR Donovan Olugbode ($4,300) Manning is second on the team in routes run, coming off a season-high 8 targets in the loss to the Sooners. The freshman Donovan Olugbode took the aforementioned Marquis Johnson’s starting job three weeks ago and is tied for the team lead with two receiving touchdowns. Olugbode leads the Tigers in routes run over the last three weeks.
Pivot Play – QB Beau Pribula ($6,100) Pribula was understandably rusty in his return from injury last week, committing three turnovers with just 250 yards of total offense in the 17-6 loss. Arkansas presents an opportunity to finish the year strong, as the Razorbacks are giving up 28.0 FPPG to quarterbacks this season – the second most on the slate to only Rutgers. Upside play that is unlikely to have much ownership compared to the other QB options on the slate.
Best of the Rest – WR Kevin Coleman ($4,700) Coleman is back in the picture after his best performance in weeks with Pribula back in the lineup, catching seven passes for 115 yards on 10 targets. Arkansas is giving up over 41 FPPG to opposing WR groups. RB Jamal Roberts ($5,000) has gotten nine or more carries in each of the last four games, two of which were in contests Missouri lost. Roberts should feasibly get at least 10 touches in a game where the Tigers are 3.5-point favorites.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Mike Washington Jr. ($6,200) Washington continues to get the bulk of the carries in the Arkansas backfield, rushing for 105 yards on 17 carries last week vs. Texas, while also finding the end-zone for the third-straight game. If Washington is capable of 100+ against the No. 3 defense in the SEC, he should be able to do so again vs. the No. 6 run defense in the conference. Washington has also been targeted five or more times in three of the last five games, coming out of the backfield as a receiver.
Fade – QBs. Status is up in the air on the QB situation as of Tuesday writing this. Taylen Green left the matchup against Texas on Saturday with a lower-body injury, giving way to backup KJ Jackson who wound up throwing for 206 yards and accounting for two touchdowns in the loss. HC Bobby Petrino said on Monday that Green was medically cleared to re-enter the game, so the initial expectation from us is that he’ll start Saturday. Petrino did not say no to the idea of both QBs playing with Arkansas’ season in the drain at this point, though he admitted he’s never been a fan of a two-QB offense. Missouri only allows 16 FPPG to quarterbacks, so it is best to just avoid this headache entirely barring some confirmation either way.
Bargain Bin – TE Rohan Jones ($3,600) or TE Jaden Platt ($3,200) Heavy tight end usage for the Razorbacks last week with Jones / Platt combining for 148 receiving yards on 14 total targets. Jones plays significantly less snaps than Platt but is now tied for the team lead with four touchdowns, while averaging over 27 YPC. Missouri is allowing 9.7 FPPG to tight ends this season.
Pivot Play – WR Raylen Sharpe ($4,300) Sharpe has been Arkansas’ best receiver in the last four weeks with 60 or more receiving yards in each of the past four games. Slot receivers have done well against this Missouri secondary in the last three weeks – Isaiah Sategna had 103 yards and a score, Anthony Evans posted 7-71-0 and A&M’s KC Concepcion had 84 yards and a score. Sharpe lines up in the slot 92.4% of the time.
Best of the Rest – WR O’Mega Blake ($6,200) Blake remains the team leader in every receiving category and is on the field for over 90% of Arkansas offensive snaps each week, but the production is rapidly declining. After beginning the year with eight straight games of 60 or more receiving yards, Blake has failed to reach that mark in any of the last three games.
Injury Notes – QB Taylen Green (questionable)
LSU vs. Oklahoma
- Point-Spread: OU -10.5
- O/U Total: 36.5
- Implied Score: OU 23.5 – LSU 13
- Weather: 49 degrees / 53% rain / 15 mph winds
LSU:
Would you have believed in the preseason that a season finale matchup between LSU and Oklahoma would have a lower game total than Iowa / Nebraska? As it stands as of Tuesday writing this, LSU / OU is the lowest game total of the entire weekend in college football, with LSU having the lowest implied team total on the main slate. Oklahoma allows just 11.2 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, so we’re out on Michael Van Buren. The Sooners are the No. 1 run defense in the SEC, so don’t bother thinking about who gets more carries on Saturday between Harlem Berry or Caden Durham. Maybe TE Trey’Dez Green ($5,200) or one of the starting LSU receivers pops if the Tigers are forced to throw the ball 45 times as they did a week ago vs. Western Kentucky, but that’s the extent of our interest on the LSU side of things. WR Barion Brown ($5,300), WR Kyle Parker ($4,000) and WR Zavion Thomas ($4,100) combined for 13 receptions on 23 targets against the Hilltoppers.
Injury Notes – QB Garrett Nussmeier (out), WR Aaron Anderson (out)
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Sategna ($6,200) Team leader in all receiving categories, averaging 5.1 receptions on 7.8 targets per game with 827 yards and 6 touchdowns, triple the amount of the next closest Sooner pass catcher. Sategna is the best fantasy option on the Oklahoma offense, but don’t feel the absolute need to spend up for him this week. LSU has not allowed a single receiver to have over 80 yards in a game this season.
Fade – RB Tory Blaylock ($4,500) Remember when Tory Blaylock looked like the next great Oklahoma running back in September and October? Short-lived. The freshman didn’t receive a single carry against Missouri, playing just three offensive snaps on the day.
Bargain Bin – WR Deion Burks ($3,900) Burks leads all Oklahoma pass-catchers this season in routes run, playing over 91% of the team’s offensive snaps this season. Availability wasn’t the issue this season for Burks, unfortunately he just doesn’t play in the profitable slot position in this system. Burks averages 4.7 catches on 6.4 targets per game.
Pivot Play – RB Xavier Robinson ($5,100) Three of the last four SEC opponents that LSU has faced this season have averaged over five yards per carry as a team against the Tigers with nine rushing touchdowns in those three matchups. Robinson was the only running back to record a rushing attempt against Missouri, to go along with four catches on four targets as a receiver out of the backfield.
Best of the Rest – QB John Mateer ($7,700) If there is a Mateer rushing prop, that might be the better play rather than in DFS, based on previous LSU defensive performances. Taylen Green rushed for 70 yards and a TD. Marcel Reed had over 100+ yards on the ground with two scores. Diego Pavia carried the ball 17 times for 86 yards and two scores in his matchup with LSU. Oklahoma’s best offense right now is running the ball with Mateer or throwing to Isaiah Sategna. There’s better QBs in this price range on the slate, but we can see the argument if Mateer gets 15 or more rushing attempts.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee
- Point-Spread: Tenn -3.5
- O/U Total: 65.5
- Implied Score: Tenn 34.5 – Vand 31
- Weather: 47 degrees / 5% rain / 3 mph winds
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($9,600) I’m sure we’ve all seen the movie “Draft Day.” To steal a line from Sonny Weaver Jr…” Diego Pavia no matter what.” Pavia is on a war path towards a Heisman Trophy and potentially getting Vanderbilt to the College Football Playoff, having scored 140 fantasy points over the last three weeks, including back-to-back 50-point performances. On paper, this should be a layup for Pavia for a QB with the highest projection on the slate, facing a Tennessee defense that is 14th among 16 SEC teams in yards allowed through the air.
Fade – RB Makhilyn Young ($5,300) Find someone that loves you the way that the DraftKings algorithm loves Makhilyn Young. 10 rushing attempts for 13 yards in the last three games. No Vanderbilt running back had more than four rushing attempts on Saturday in a blowout of Kentucky.
Pivot Play – WR Junior Sherrill ($5,400) or WR Tre Richardson ($5,200) Vanderbilt an Air Raid offense now? 38, 33 and 39 pass attempts for Pavia over the last three games, while also completing over 75% of his throws with 11 passing TDs in that span. That puts both Sherrill and Richardson squarely in play with that kind of passing volume. Tennessee is allowing over 43 FPPG to opposing WRs which is one of the highest marks on the slate.
Best of the Rest – TE Eli Stowers ($6,500) Quiet day at the office for Stowers against Kentucky with just 36 receiving yards but converted on all six of the targets directed his way. Should not overshadow the fact that Stowers had consecutive 100-yard receiving performances in the two games prior. RB Sedrick Alexander ($5,500) is a low-floor option with his declining volume, with just 19 carries in the last three weeks. Tennessee is 11th in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground but No. 1 in the nation at limiting explosive plays in the run game. Alexander would need volume to hit value, and he’s unlikely to get it.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – A Tennessee WR. We want at least one Tennessee WR per lineup. Vanderbilt is atrocious against the pass, ranked second to last in the SEC in yards allowed through the air, are dead last in the country in completions allowed per game to opponents and are giving up over 43 FPPG to opposing WRs. Both slot and boundary receivers have beaten this Vandy secondary equally over the course of the year, so we don’t have a particularly strong conviction as to which of Braylon Staley, Chris Brazzell II or Mike Matthews you should have in a lineup.
Bargain Bin – TE Ethan Davis ($3,800) We’ll see if Miles Kitselman is available on Saturday after not playing against Kentucky, but he may not need to be rushed back with the way Ethan Davis has played in the last month. Saturday was the second time in three weeks that Davis caught five passes in a game, finishing with 72 yards and a TD vs. Florida. Tight ends are averaging 12.3 FPPG against Vanderbilt this season.
Pivot Play – QB Joey Aguilar ($7,900) A 19-point projection isn’t overly enticing, so we’d suggest a game stack if playing Aguilar. Vanderbilt is second to last in the SEC in both yards allowed and touchdowns given up through the air, while QBs are averaging just over 21 FPPG against the Commodores.
Best of the Rest – RB DeSean Bishop ($6,700) Bishop now has a rushing touchdown in seven of his last eight games and scored two rushing touchdowns in half of those matchups. The 24 rushing attempts vs. Kentucky was an outlier, though, with Tennessee up by multiple scores and the Vols without the services of Peyton Lewis. Bishop is not as good a play this week, with Vanderbilt ranked 41st in rush D success rate and only giving up 19 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. If Peyton Lewis is out again, then perhaps we will reconsider.
Injury Notes – TE Miles Kitselman (questionable), RB Peyton Lewis (questionable)
Cincinnati vs. TCU
- Point-Spread: TCU -3.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: TCU 30.5 – Cin 27
- Weather: 61 degrees / 56% rain / 13 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendan Sorsby ($8,600) Sure feels like we’ve written about Cincinnati on every slate this season. Sorsby is QB6 in college fantasy football in total points scored with one week remaining in the year, facing a TCU defense that is giving up 20.2 FPPG to quarterbacks. Running QBs have had their way with the Horned Frogs defense in recent weeks with Conner Weigman rushing for 114 yards on 15 attempts last Saturday and BYU’s Bear Bachmeier running for 59 yards on 10 carries the week before that.
Fade – RBs. Very little upside to rostering either Tawee Walker or Evan Pryor when both are healthy and playing. The two combined for just 12 rushing attempts in the loss to BYU last week and face a TCU defense that is ranked 5th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground. The Horned Frogs allow just 19 FPPG to opposing backfields this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Joe Royer ($3,500) Royer did not live up to his billing as a top 5 projected tight end this season with just 371 receiving yards this season, and less than 20 yards in each of the last four games. If there’s a glimmer of hope that Royer can close 2025 on a high note, this would be the matchup against a TCU defense that is giving up just over 12 FPPG to tight ends this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. There is no priority play amongst the Cincinnati wide receivers. WR Cyrus Allen ($6,000) leads the team with 10 receiving touchdowns, but accounts for just 21 percent of the target share. WR Jeff Caldwell ($4,100) has found the end-zone once in each of the last two games but played just 47% of the team’s offensive snaps vs. BYU. WR Caleb Goodie ($3,900) came back from injury after missing the previous game and was targeted a team-high six times while running the most routes of any Cincy wide receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) – WR Eric McAlister ($7,900) 17 or more fantasy points scored for McAlister in 7 of his last 9 games played and is now one target shy of 100 on the season. The TCU WR1 caught just four passes vs. Houston last week but was on a streak of four straight games prior to that with 10 or more targets. Cincinnati has allowed a 100-yard receiver in two of the last three games.
Fade – QB Josh Hoover ($6,600) TCU is probably best served taking the ball out of Josh Hoover’s hands, tossing seven interceptions in the last three games. Good news for Hoover this week is that Cincinnati has only forced two INTs all year long. Cincinnati is giving up 21 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but Hoover’s recent decline as a fantasy quarterback have us leaning towards him being a fade rather than a play this week.
Pivot Play – RB Jeremy Payne ($5,100) Payne separated himself from the TCU committee backfield last week, rushing for 103 yards on 18 carries in the win over Houston. Teams can run on Cincinnati, as the Bearcats rank 12th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and at least two rushing touchdowns in four of the last five games. If there’s a downside to Payne, it’s that freshman RB Jon Denman ($4,000) held a 3-1 advantage in red zone opportunities last week.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Dwyer ($6,100) Dwyer ranks first on the team in routes run, playing over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps each week, and second on the team in targets (80) and receptions (52). He’s playable from that standpoint, but Dwyer has only been fantasy-relevant against the bad defenses on his schedule, scoring 30 or more points against a terrible Baylor secondary and an Iowa State defense that didn’t have any of its starting corners available. Outside of those two matchups, he’s been largely ineffective. WR Joseph Manjack IV ($4,200) saw season-highs in targets (10) and receptions (9) last week, but one would imagine that it had much to do with facing his former team in Houston.
Injury Notes – RB Kevorian Barnes (out)
Oregon vs. Washington
- Point-Spread: Oreg -6.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: Oreg 29 – UW 22.5
- Weather: 46 degrees / 42% rain / 5 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – QB Kenyon Sadiq ($5,000) Sadiq has looked every bit the TE1 he was projected to be prior to the season in college fantasy with five receiving touchdowns in the last four games played with 14 receptions and 168 receiving yards in the last two games alone. Dream matchup against a Washington defense that is giving up 14.2 FPPG to tight ends this season, one of the highest totals on the slate.
Fade – QB Dante Moore ($6,800) Moore has performed like a former 5-star prospect this season, tossing 22 touchdowns to just six interceptions with the third highest QB rating in the Big Ten conference behind only two Heisman contenders in Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza. That doesn’t change the fact that Moore simply isn’t much of a fantasy asset as a non-runner. Washington is good enough defensively to where there’s not much appeal to Moore this week, as the Huskies allow just 17 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik Benson ($4,500) or WR Jeremiah McClellan ($4,800) Oregon did not rotate at WR much at all in the competitive contest last week vs. USC, playing primarily 12 personnel with two tight ends on the field. Benson and McClellan combined for 120 receiving yards, while just one other Oregon receiver had any targets directed his way against the Trojans. If Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. are out again, Benson and McClellan will play a significant amount yet again.
Best of the Rest – RB Noah Whittington ($7,100) or RB Jordan Davison ($6,300) One or the other, don’t stack the Oregon backfield against a Washington defense that has allowed the fourth fewest rushing touchdowns in the B1G, allowing just 18.1 FPPG to opposing backfields. Whittington is the preferred of the two, with double-digit rushing attempts in four of the last five games. This also is no need to feel forced in having any Oregon RBs in our lineups. The Huskies are 25th nationally in rush D success rate and 13th in limiting explosive run plays.
Injury Notes – WR Dakorien Moore (questionable), WR Gary Bryant Jr. (questionable)
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Denzel Boston ($6,800) or WR Dezmen Roebuck ($5,100) USC found success throwing the ball against Oregon last week with 330 yards through the air and four touchdowns. Because of the Ducks’ elite run defense, Oregon’s last two opponents have combined for 77 pass attempts. If we expect Washington to throw 30+ times on Saturday, assuming the weather doesn’t impact matters, we’ll want some exposure to the Washington passing game, namely Boston and Roebuck who’ve combined for 14 of the team’s 20 receiving touchdowns. Two USC receivers went for 100+ yards last week, while a third, some guy named Makai Lemon, was targeted 14 times in the loss.
Fade – RB Jonah Coleman ($6,600) Indications from HC Jedd Fisch are that both Jonah Coleman and Denzel Boston will be playing “a substantial amount” on Saturday. That doesn’t change our opinion of Coleman being a fade this weekend. Just one opponent this season has averaged more than four yards per carry against Oregon this season, with opposing backfields averaging just 18 FPPG. Even with Coleman back, we still expect to see Adam Mohammad and Jordan Washington get mixed in some.
Best of the Rest – QB Demond Williams ($7,500) We wouldn’t consider any quarterback facing Oregon in CFB DFS prior to seeing what Jayden Maiava was able to accomplish last week. For the season, Oregon is only allowing 9.1 FPPG to quarterbacks. If playing Williams, we would stack with at least one Washington receiver, assuming this game would play out the same way that the USC / Oregon matchup did a week ago.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. Rutgers
- Point-Spread: PSU -13.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: PSU 35 – Rutg 21.5
- Weather: 40 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Kayton Allen ($8,500) Allen’s opening player prop number this week was 132.5 rushing yards. Not quite Ashton Jeanty levels from last year, but one of the highest numbers we’ve seen this season. No surprise considering the opponent, as Rutgers is dead last in the B1G in yards allowed per game on the ground. Each of the last five opponents to face the Scarlet Knights this season have rushed for at least 200 yards as a team, with both Maryland and Oregon averaging over 10 (!) yards per carry as a team.
Fade – TE Luke Reynolds ($3,400) Transfer incoming in 3, 2, 1. Reynolds was a projected top 12 fantasy tight end entering the season but has not lived up to expectations with just 22 receptions and zero touchdowns in 2025. Reynolds has not recorded a catch in four of the last six games and is now third-string behind Khalil Dinkins and Andrew Rappleyea.
Bargain Bin – QB Ethan Grunkemeyer ($5,400) Do we dare risk playing a Penn State backup quarterback? Probably not, but Grunkemeyer has shown notable growth since taking over the starting job, completing 73% of his passes with four passing touchdowns in the last four games. Rutgers ranks 14th in the B1G in yards allowed through the air and are giving up 30 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, the highest number on the slate.
Pivot Play – RB Nick Singleton ($6,400) Playing both Allen and Singleton is possible here given how poor Rutgers is at defending the run, and the two already combined for 57 fantasy points just last week against Nebraska. Singleton won’t reach last year’s numbers as a receiver out of the backfield but does have three receptions in three of his last four games played. Regardless of Singleton or Allen, we want at least one Penn State running back in all lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Antwan Raymond ($5,700) Raymond has been excellent over his last two games played. In Week 11, the sophomore carried the Rutgers offense on his back with 240 yards on 41 carries on the win over Maryland. Last week, Raymond rushed for 52 yards and a touchdown against the No. 2 run defense in the country in Ohio State which is a feat in and of itself. Penn State’s run defense has been substandard for much of 2025, ranked 62nd in stuff rate, 85th in rush D success rate and 70th in limiting explosive run plays.
Pivot Play – QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($5,000) Projections say fade the Greek Rifle. Probably the wise thing to do after Kaliakmanis couldn’t muster positive fantasy points in the loss to Ohio State last week. But take out the OSU and Oregon matchups and Kaliakmanis is averaging 20 fantasy points per game this season. 20 points is all we’d need to hit value at this salary, facing a defense that is not on the level of an Ohio State or Oregon, allowing 18.7 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The trio of KJ Duff, Ian Strong and DT Sheffield combine for 78% of the team’s receiving production and 15 of the 19 receiving touchdowns for Rutgers this season. Playing multiple Rutgers WRs in a lineup together is feasible because the Knights don’t throw to anyone else beyond the top three. 4 wide receivers this season have scored 18 or more fantasy points against Penn State this season, all of which played on the boundary, which would favor Duff or Strong in this scenario.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State vs. Florida
- Point-Spread: UF -1.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: UF 26 – FSU 24.5
- Weather: 71 degrees / 2% rain / 13 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Duce Robinson ($6,400) Surprised that Florida is the favorite in this matchup with FSU being the team with something to play for, attempting to secure a sixth victory and bowl eligibility. Robinson was unable to extend his streak to four straight games of 100+ receiving yards but still managed 17 fantasy points and a touchdown in the loss to NC State last week. If it hadn’t been for the first half injury against Pitt in Week 7, Robinson likely would be on a streak of eight straight games of double-digit fantasy points scored.
Fade – RBs. I don’t even think Florida State fans have an idea what the pecking order is in the Seminole backfield at this point. With Sam Singleton Jr. announced out before the NC State matchup, it was a perfect opportunity to ride the freshman Ousmane Kromah who was coming off a solid performance against Virginia Tech the week prior. Instead, we saw a mix of Roydell Williams, Gavin Sawchuk and Jaylin Lucas, neither of which did much of anything. Gus Malzahn never found his workhorse running back this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman Jr. ($3,800) Pittman ranks third on the team in targets (33) and receptions (21), while playing nearly 97% of the team’s offensive snaps over the last six games. Pittman can score in a variety of ways, as evidenced perfectly two weeks ago with a rushing touchdown against Virginia Tech.
Pivot Play – QB Thomas Castellanos ($7,800) While we don’t have much interest in the FSU running backs, that doesn’t mean the Seminoles won’t find running room against this Florida defense. The Gators have allowed each of the last three opponents to rush for 200+ yards, while six of the last eight opponents have rushed for at least three touchdowns. Castellanos was the team’s leading rusher last week against NC State and is now tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns (8).
Best of the Rest – WR2. We’ll see on the status of Lawayne McCoy when the injury report comes out, as he left the NC State game in the first quarter due to injury. Shame too, because McCoy was on his way to a breakout performance with 3-45-0 on four targets in just 15 minutes of play. WR Jayvan Boggs ($3,100) filled in for McCoy, playing a season-high 79% of the offensive snaps, and finished with 4-56-0 on six targets.
Injury Notes – RB Sam Singleton Jr. (questionable), WR Lawayne McCoy (questionable)
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Jadan Baugh ($7,000) Baugh is 96 yards shy of the first 1,000-yard rushing season for a Florida running back since 2015. Impressive feat for Baugh considering the Gators have no semblance of a passing threat at quarterback or wide receiver. Baugh has also become a legitimate threat in the passing game with three or more receptions in seven of his last nine games. Just 15 carries have gone to Florida running backs not named Jadan Baugh in the last four games, so we know volume will be there as well.
Injury Notes – WR Eugene Wilson (out), WR Dallas Wilson (out), RB Ja’Kobi Jackson (out)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- A Penn State RB
- QB Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
- RB Ahmad Hardy, Missouri
- WR Duce Robinson, Florida State
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
- RB Jadan Baugh, Florida
- WR Duce Robinson, Florida State
- RB Jeremy Payne, TCU
