Kansas State vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -2.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: TCU 32 – KSU 29.5
Weather: Dome
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB Deuce Vaughn ($7,200) TCU is a run of the mill Big 12 run defense, allowing 144 YPG during the regular season, are 87th in rush play success rate and allowed 15.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Vaughn was one of four RBs to crack the 20-point fantasy mark against the Frogs, averaging around 6.9 yards per carry but only had 12 attempts. One of the top plays of the slate.
Fade – WR Kade Warner ($4,200) Outside of that brief three-game stretch in the middle of the season, there is nothing that inspires here to play Warner at his pricing. Failed to top 30 yards receiving in each of the last three games and snap counts are down ever so slightly too. Didn’t think we would see a drop off in numbers with an upgrade at QB in Will Howard, but Warner’s aDOT is just 6.4 yards over the last three games – 10.7 aDOT over the first nine weeks.
Bargain Bin – RB DJ Giddens ($4,300) The redshirt freshman continues to look like Kansas State’s future RB1 in 2023 should Deuce Vaughn decide to head to the NFL. Giddens has found pay dirt in each of the last three games, averaging over five yards a touch. It should be noted that Kansas State has won each of the contests by 18 points or more, so the dynamic could change here if the game is close.
Pivot Play – QB Will Howard ($6,300) 20 or more fantasy points scored in four of the last five games for Howard, and the only reason it wasn’t 5-for-5 is because of how KSU was gashing Kansas in the running game last Saturday. If there is a strength to the TCU defense, it would be in the secondary, ranked 23rd in success rate and holding three of the last four opponents to under 200 yards passing.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Knowles ($5,700) For as good as the TCU pass defense has been overall, they are prone to giving up the big play, ranked 123rd in explosiveness, allowing 31 pass plays of 25+ yards or more. Knowles leads all KSU receivers at 2.18 yards per route run and 14.7 YPC. Can also be featured some in the ground game as we saw last week with 38 yards and two scores vs. Kansas.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) – RB Kendre Miller ($6,600) Miller obliterated the Kansas State defense the first time around, rushing for 153 yards and two touchdowns on 29 attempts. The junior running back also indicated this week that he is fully healthy after being less than 100% the last two weeks of the regular season. TCU boasts one of the best run blocking units in the Big 12. The concern is that the Kansas State defense has done well against the run outside of that game, allowing just 13.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and 44th in rush play success rate. Does the game plan change at all for KSU after the first meeting didn’t go well.
Fade – WR Taye Barber ($5,500) Similar situation to Quentin Johnston below in that the senior slot receiver was not 100% late in the year but is expected to play Saturday. At $5.5k though, Barber does not possess the same upside, having scored just 20 fantasy points once all year. Played just six snaps in the win over Iowa State.
Bargain Bin – TE Jared Wiley ($3,600) Production has been sporadic for Wiley this season, but easily his best performance of the year came against KSU with five receptions on five targets for 74 yards and a score. Wiley was one of three Big 12 tight ends to score double digit points this season vs. the Wildcats.
Pivot Play – WR Quentin Johnston ($6,500) Likely won’t see high ownership given his cloudy injury status after not playing a single snap in the blowout over Iowa State last week. But as of Tuesday, HC Sonny Dykes said that QJ had a great practice and has looked the best he has in a month. After the two-game outburst earlier in the year, the Kansas State matchup was the downturn back to Earth for Johnston’s production but was still effective with 4-74-1 on a team-high eight targets. Kansas State is expected to be without starting defensive backs Kobe Savage and Cincere Mason.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Duggan ($8,100) As of writing this, I’m going to be on team punt the quarterback position for Saturday’s slate, so Duggan is unlikely to be in my lineups. While Duggan threw three touchdowns in the win over KSU, he was also sacked four times and limited to just 13 rush yards on 15 attempts. For the season, Kansas State allowed just 23.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s, but there were four QBs that hit the 30-point fantasy mark against the Wildcats.
Injury Notes – n/a. TCU apparently is healthy on all fronts with the top offensive playmakers.
Toledo vs. Ohio
Point-Spread: Tol -1.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tol 28 – Ohio 26.5
Weather: Dome
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – QB Tucker Gleason ($6,000) …for now. Raise your hand if you were burned by the last-minute Dequan Finn news last week? ***Raises hand. As of Thursday, the most insightful news is that HC Jason Candle says he thinks Finn could be fully healthy for Saturday after dealing with an ankle injury the last few weeks. Does that mean Finn gets the starting nod for the full contest? Does Tucker Gleason get the nod for the full contest? Do we see a split? Lot of question marks here that will likely results in having to make a last-second decision Saturday morning. And this one is big, because Gleason, as it currently stands, is our second-highest projected player of the weekend.
Fade – RBs. Just a complete disaster of a backfield all year. One week its Peny Boone, the next Micah Kelly and the next Jacquez Stuart. Truly a hot hand situation that we don’t need to pay much attention to. Ohio is second in the MAC in rush defense and 39th nationally in rush play success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR DeMeer Blankumsee ($4,800) Finished third on the team in targets, but was hampered by injury, resulting in Blankumsee missing three games this season. On a per game basis, Blankumsee was second on the team, averaging 5.6 targets per.
Pivot Play – WR Devin Maddox ($5,400) A distant third on the team in routes run this season, but Maddox closed the year on a high note with 70+ yards in each of the last four games. Don’t have the exact percentages in front of me, but his snap counts and routes run numbers were up at least 20% in the second half of the season compared to the first.
Best of the Rest – TE Jamal Turner ($4,200) Just fourth on the team in targets (39) but second in routes run and second in touchdowns (8). Ohio struggled to defend the tight end position, allowing 8.7 FPPG – 20th highest mark in the country – with five different players scoring nine fantasy points or more. WR Jerjuan Newton ($5,000) should be the highest-owned player for Toledo outside of the QB, leading the team in every receiving category. Speaks to how fast Toledo plays offensively, but Newton has played 80 or more offensive snaps in four of the last five games. Ohio allowed 23.1 FPPG this season to opposing WR1s, the seventh highest mark in the country.
Injury Notes – Have notification’s on for Pete Thamel’s twitter account as he’ll likely posted the QB1 news here.
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – QB CJ Harris ($5,500) Can’t throw the football worth a damn with a disgusting throwing motion that looks like he’s throwing a dart at a dart board, but that isn’t make or break for college quarterbacks in fantasy football. Four combined touchdowns in Harris’ last performance vs. Bowling Green, including 65 yards and three scores on the ground. 24 projected fantasy points at $5.5k is a near lock for most quarterbacks in a DFS slate. Toledo has the No. 1 pass defense in the MAC, allowing just 187 YPG and are 19th in pass play success rate.
Fade – WR Sam Wiglusz ($6,800) One of the top surprise stories of the CFB season as a former Ohio State walk-on becoming one of the standout receivers in the MAC conference. Led the team in nearly every receiving category with 23% target share and 11 of the 26 receiving touchdowns. Ohio did blowout Bowling Green last week, so game script played a role, but we also saw the CJ Harris difference with Wiglusz being targeted just twice (found the end-zone as well). I’d rather go cheap here if wanting to roster an Ohio receiver, looking for more of a big-play threat that doesn’t need heavy volume from a backup QB.
Bargain Bin – WR James Bostic ($4,700) If interested in an Ohio receiver, I’d say there is a fairly distant gap between Wiglusz/Jones and everyone else in terms of priority. Bostic, a Vanderbilt transfer, only scored once this season, while finishing fourth in receptions and targets, but was second on the team in routes run and led the Bobcats with a 19.2 YPC average. Shot in the dark play.
Pivot Play – WR Jacoby Jones ($5,500) Began the year slowly, but the JUCO transfer became a formidable WR2 alongside Wiglusz, finishing second on the team in receiving yards and touchdowns. Double-digit fantasy points in each of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – RB Sieh Bangura ($7,100) I wouldn’t say triple-option like but do believe we see a run-based approach from the Ohio offense Saturday with Harris in at QB. 20+ rushing attempts for Bangura in each of the last three games. Scored a rushing touchdown in all but three games in 2022. Toledo is far better at defending the pass than the run, ranked 47th in rush play success rate and allowed 21.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season – ninth most in the country.
Injury Notes – n/a
Coastal Carolina vs. Troy
Point-Spread: Troy -8.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Troy 28.5 – CCU 20
Weather: 70 degrees / 81% rain / 6 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
This is as close as can be to an outright fade, barring some miracle that QB Grayson McCall ($7,400) plays. HC Jamey Chadwell said earlier this week that if the game were played on Tuesday, that McCall would not play. Doesn’t inspire much confidence. Neither does Chadwell doing his weekly presser while negotiating to become the next head coach at the University of Liberty. Coincidentally, we have a prime example of how a team might perform when on the verge of losing their head coach in Liberty last week in their drubbing vs. New Mexico State, just before Hugh Freeze accepted the Auburn job. And if McCall does not play, all of the notable Coastal skill players are in the $4.5k-$5.5k range to where you cannot justify playing them with inept quarterback play. I’m staying away here unless we get that miracle.
Troy:
Top Play(s) – RB Kimani Vidal ($5,700) Full transparency…I know Troy was 10-2 in the regular season and one of the pleasant surprises of the CFB season, but I did not watch much at all of the Trojans this season. This is a team – up until late – that won with it’s defense under first year head coach Jon Sumrall. That was until the last two games. The Troy running game is hitting its stride at the exact right time in the season, led by junior Kimani Vidal who rushed for a combined 550 yards and six touchdowns in the last two games! Vidal had just 456 rushing yards in the 10 games prior to that. Reading up a bit, sounds like a situation of everything gelling at the right time with Vidal finally 100% healthy and the offensive line performing the best it has all year. As for the matchup this week, Coastal allowed 18 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and were 77th in rush play success rate defensively. There’s nothing on paper to suggest Troy won’t find plenty of running room Saturday.
Fade – WR Deshon Stoudemire ($3,500) Not sure exactly what Stoudemire provides to the offense, aside from maybe a good blocker in the run game? Second on the team in targets and routes run but has not surpassed 25 receiving yards in any of the last six games. Playing time and target volume has declined significantly in that stretch since the first portion of the year.
Bargain Bin – WR RaJae Johnson ($4,500) The former UAB transfer had his best performance of the season with 101 yards and a TD vs. Arkansas State. Despite being third on the team in targets and receptions, Johnson also is tied for the team lead in touchdowns (4) with the highest aDOT (13.6), YPC average (17.9) and most routes run among the Trojan receivers.
Pivot Play – QB Gunnar Watson ($5,900) Troy is statistically one of the more balanced teams in the country with a 52-48 split between the run and pass, but they simply have not needed to put the ball in the air the last two weeks with how Vidal has been running. Just 32 pass attempts the last two games for Watson who has not scored 20 fantasy points in a game since Week 3. The only argument in favor of Watson is that he’ll face the worst secondary in the Sun Belt as Coastal is 117th in pass play success rate and dead last in yards allowed per game.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a. I cannot locate it as of Friday morning, but slot receiver Tez Johnson ($6,300) played just 15 snaps in the win over Arkansas State last week. Was very active with those limited reps, targeted seven times, but those 15 snaps are significantly lower than his usual output.
LSU vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -18.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UGA 34.5 – LSU 16
Weather: Dome
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Kenny McIntosh ($6,500) I remember earlier in the year when Kirby Smart was infuriated with how Georgia’s offensive line and running game was performing as a group. Not anymore, averaging nearly six yards a carry in the last two games, spearheaded by McIntosh who scored 53 combined fantasy points in that span. Don’t think LSU’s offense can threaten Georgia here so I don’t think we see anything out of the ordinary from a game script standpoint. If there is a weakness to the Tigers’ defense, it is defending the run, ranked 73rd in rush play success rate.
Fade – UGA. Realistically, we’re taking the same approach we’ve done all season. Stetson Bennett is too expensive. Highest target share of any player is 18%. And UGA will rotate at least three running backs, if not four.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Stetson Bennett ($8,200) Should have very low ownership on Saturday as most will punt the quarterback position. And with UGA being a heavy favorite, how much will the Bulldogs need Bennett to throw the ball – just 256 passing yards in the last two regular season games combined. Bennett was at his best at this time last year from a fantasy standpoint, averaging 26 FPPG between Week 13 and the National Title game a year ago. A Georgia passing stack with Bowers could be in the cards, but there is no middle ground with that pairing. You’ll either win a GPP or come in dead last. LSU is 13th in pass play success rate and allowed just 19.2 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. I won’t have any exposure here.
Best of the Rest – TE Brock Bowers ($6,000) Similar to Bennett, just remember the late-season surge Bowers had in 2021 once the regular season started to wind down and we entered postseason play. Averaged 19 FPPG over the last five weeks.
Injury Notes – WR AD Mitchell ($4,800) Mitchell is expected back on Saturday after missing all but two games this season due to injury. He’s easily UGA’s most gifted wide receiver, but this is his first game action since early September. This was almost an apples-to-apples situation to last year where George Pickens returned from injury late in the year. Big difference being Pickens came back in Week 13 vs. Georgia Tech in a blowout vs. Mitchell returning for the SEC title game. But I do think it can be a point of reference as Pickens played all of seven offensive snaps that game. Mitchell will give the LSU offense something else to think about, but I highly doubt he’ll have an impact.
LSU:
Same approach the last two seasons with any opponents that face this Georgia defense…outside of Alabama. Full-team fade. QB Jayden Daniels ($7,600) is the only LSU player we have projected to score more than 11 fantasy points on Saturday, and if you’re playing him, you better have a stack with one of the Tiger receivers – preferably WR Malik Nabers ($5,900) – because LSU won’t be able to run the football. Three wide receivers have scored more than 20 fantasy points this season against Georgia so it’s not unreasonable to think Nabers or someone else could have a solid output. UGA is fifth nationally in FPPG allowed to opposing QB1s and 14th in FPPG allowed to opposing RB1s.
Fresno State vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: BSU -3.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: BSU 29 – Fresno St 25.5
Weather: 30 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) – n/a. Don’t think there is much we can take out of the first meeting between these two teams, which wound up being a 20-point win for Boise State. Fresno was without Jake Haener in that game which changed the entire dynamic of the Bulldogs’ offense. That said, nobody really projects that highly for Fresno State this week and all of the main components to choose from are expensive.
Fade – WR Nikko Remigio ($6,800) Talented player that is second on the team in targets (80), receptions (64), touchdowns (5) and routes run. Just too pricy for a receiver that has scored 20+ fantasy points just twice all year. We need heavy, heavy target volume for Remigio to pay off his salary as most of his receptions come within the first down markers. Averages just 10.9 YPC with an aDOT of only 6.1.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody worthwhile here for Fresno that is under $5k.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen Moreno-Cropper ($7,000) Run JMC was actually in my initial build this week as there are a limited amount of reliable wide receivers to choose from on the slate. Team leader in just about every receiving category for the Bulldogs and one of just 36 players in the country to hit the century mark for targets in 2022. The biggest concern is the secondary Cropper is facing as Boise is No. 1 in pass play success rate and allowed just 13.6 FPPG to opposing WR1s. Puka Nacua was the only receiver to go wild against Boise State this season. Nobody else scored more than 17 fantasy points against the Broncos.
Best of the Rest – QB Jake Haener ($7,200) Despite the overwhelming numbers from the Boise secondary, we would be foolish to dismiss Haener here. 26 or more fantasy points in four of the last five games to close the year, and the reason that wasn’t five straight is because of the blowout victory over Wyoming in the finale where the passing game wasn’t needed. Just two quarterbacks scored 20 or more fantasy points against Boise State all season. I would say lets now look to veteran RB Jordan Mims ($6,900) to see if we have an advantage here with the running game but that is not the case. Boise is 42nd in rush play success rate but have allowed the fouth fewest fantasy points to opposing RB1s in the country in 2022.
Injury Notes – WR Josh Kelly ($3,900) Kelly is doubtful for Saturday.
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – QB Taylen Green ($6,600) Future is bright for the Broncos with Green at the helm the next 2-3 seasons. Named the Mountain West Freshman of the Year, Green’s continuous improvement with each passing week since taking over the starting job was notable. There’s really no one thing that Fresno State does extraordinarily defensively, so Green is very attractive for this slate at his pricing. Allowed 22 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season and that was comprised of Jayden Mayden (39 Fpts), Nate Cox (26 fpts) and Brayden Schager (20.1 fpts). Green is superior to each of them.
Fade – n/a. There is no outright fade for Boise State as everyone is priced accordingly to their yearly usage and statistical output.
Bargain Bin – WR Eric McAlister ($4,500) The 6-foot-3 sophomore doesn’t play a lot, in fact most of his playing time has come in blowout situations but is effective when on the field. Leads the team at 23.5 yards per catch with an aDOT of 25.5. His average depth of target has yet to be lower than 20 yards in any game play this season.
Pivot Play – WR Billy Bowens ($5,400) Not a necessity but would like to pair Green with one Boise State receiver here. Bowens is third on the team in targets and routes run, but is the team’s top big play threat, averaging 15.9 YPC and an aDOT of 16.6. Scored a touchdown in three of the last five games.
Best of the Rest – RB George Holani ($7,600) One of the highest floor plays on the slate. We know we’re getting 17-20 touches here. Fresno State is very mediocre against the run, ranked 78th in rush play success rate and allowing 14.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s. In fact, both Holani and backup Ashton Jeanty ($4,700) scored over 22 fantasy points in the previous meeting. Holani is someone you mix into your multi-entry GPPs but is neither a lock nor fade. Just solid. WR Latrell Caples ($5,600) leads the Broncos in most receiving categories, but his 10.7 YPC average and 8.2 aDOT don’t generate a ton of excitement. He’s the possession guy.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Florida vs. Tulane
Point-Spread: Tul -3.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Tul 30 – UCF 26.5
Weather: 77 degrees / 90% rain / 1 mph winds
UCF:
Top Play(s) – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($7,700) JRP was the best player on the field the last time these two teams met three weeks ago with over 300 total yards and three scores in the 38-31 win. The two games following that performance didn’t go according to plan as JRP was shut down by Navy that next Saturday, and then injured his hamstring in the win over USF last week. According to HC Gus Malzahn, Plumlee has practiced all week and is ready to go for Saturday. Hamstrings could flare up again at any moment, but we’re moving forward under the assumption he’ll be close to 100%.
Fade – RB Isaiah Bowser ($5,900) Actually had his best fantasy performance since mid-October against Tulane the last time out with two rushing touchdowns, but this remains a 50-50 split backfield with RB RJ Harvey ($5,400). Every time in those scenarios, I’ll go with the cheaper and more explosive option of the two where Bowser’s viability is solely dependent on UCF getting into the red-zone. He doesn’t provide any value outside of that. While the Tulane rush defense fell off a bit late in the year, including allowing 336 yards to the Knights the last time around, the Wave gave up just 11.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season – 13th best in the country.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Javon Baker ($5,800) When healthy, Baker has undoubtedly been UCF’s best wide receiver this season. Take out the Temple and East Carolina games where Baker was less than 100% and he averaged 8.6 targets per game which would lead the team. The drop issues seem to have been cleaned up with just one in the last seven weeks. And Baker has now found the end-zone three times in the last four weeks.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Hudson ($5,800) and Ryan O’Keefe ($6,400) Same story for much of the season here. UCF won’t rotate much at the wide receiver position when all three starters are healthy. The trio combines for 63% of the team’s total target share. Tulane allowed four receivers this season to score 20+ fantasy points against them. All four played in the slot where O’Keefe and Hudson rotate, fwiw.
Injury Notes – Just keep tabs on the JRP situation pregame. Sounds like he should be full-go but there’s a non-zero chance we also see Mikey Keene at some point Saturday too.
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Tyjae Spears ($6,700) I tried to outsmart myself last week by fading Tyjae Spears against a very good Cincinnati run defense. Just an idiotic decision as Spears rolled up 181 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries in the win. Do we see a similar game script in what looks to be a good bit of rain on Saturday? UCF is another solid run defense, ranked 51st in rush play success rate, but aren’t as good as Cincinnati in that department. Spears should have another big day.
Fade – TE Tyrick James ($4,000) Really thought prior to the year that James would have been much more of a factor in Jim Svoboda’s offense, but that just hasn’t transpired. Tied for the team lead in touchdowns (5) but less than 15 yards receiving in each of the last three games and has seen his routes run take a dip in that span. James stayed in to block 35% of the offensive snaps last week against Cincinnati…a season high.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Michael Pratt ($7,000) Focus of the UCF defense will undoubtedly be on Spears, so Pratt will have to make plays in the passing game on Saturday. The Knights are exceptional at limiting big plays in the passing game but are 78th in pass play success rate and allow 23.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Who scored the most fantasy points this season against UCF? That would be 35 fantasy points from Mr. Michael Pratt.
Best of the Rest – WR Shae Wyatt ($5,400) and WR Duece Watts ($4,900) We’ve avoided the Tulane receivers all year long, but some opportunities have opened up lately with DeaJuan McDougle and his 40 targets entering the transfer portal. Wyatt’s playing time hasn’t increased, but the production has with four touchdowns in the last four games. Watts leads the team in touchdowns (7), targets (47) and the highest aDOT (17.1) among the Tulane wideouts.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson vs. North Carolina
Point-Spread: Clem -7.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Clem 35.5 – UNC 28
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($6,800) Eight. Count them, eight, different running backs scored 20 or more fantasy points against UNC this season. RB1s averaged 18.0 FPPG against the Heels and UNC was 97th in rush play success rate defensively during the regular season. We obviously want Clemson exposure against this defense – I’d rather not try and get cute here and play their most consistent offensive performer all year.
Fade – WRs not named Antonio Williams. We’re about to see a major overhaul with the Clemson WR room after two massively disappointing seasons. Sounds like Clemson will add at least two receivers via the portal this offseason to add to a promising group of youngsters. Joe Ngata ($3,900) hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points in a month, with under 30 yards receiving in the last three games. EJ Williams ($3,000) and Adam Randall ($3,100) will rotate at the vacated outside spot with Beaux Collins now out for the year. Neither player caught a pass vs. South Carolina.
Bargain Bin – See above. Both Williams and Randall are cheap and will see extended action now due to injuries. I’d advise against it as we don’t have any receiver projected to score more than nine fantasy points, but you’re not risking a ton.
Pivot Play – Don’t play QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($7,300) The stoppable force vs. the movable object. DJU will be a popular play Saturday facing this UNC defense that has allowed six quarterbacks this season to account for 30 or more fantasy points against them. Defensive numbers aside, I refuse to go out in our last big slate of the season starting a quarterback that threw for just 99 yards last week against South Carolina. Blame whoever you want for another sub-par season, but there are major DJU rumors swirling he’s headed to the west coast after this year. The matchup is there for DJU to have a big game, but I don’t trust him, the offensive coaching staff, nor the below average talent Clemson has at receiver.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($5,700) Far and away Clemson’s top option in the passing game, now leading the Tigers in nearly every receiving category. Tops on the team in routes run, targets, receptions…you name it. Only downside is the 6.9 aDOT as everything is around the line of scrimmage. TE Davis Allen ($3,700) was shut out last week vs. South Carolina but this is a good bounce back spot. Four tight ends scored 14 fantasy points or more against the Heels this season.
Injury Notes – WR Beaux Collins ($5,300) Collins is out for the season with a shoulder injury.
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Drake Maye ($8,500) and Josh Downs ($7,600) This duo is going to be very low owned because of the pricing, but a very intriguing combo for GPPs. Overall pass defense numbers are good for Clemson, but they’ve mostly beaten up on bottom-feeders. Sam Hartman scored 53 fantasy points on this defense. Jordan Travis had 38. And just last week, Spencer Rattler threw for 360 yards against the Tigers. Going to believe that these past two weeks were UNC sleep-walking their way into the title game Saturday as their spot had been clinched already. The stack with Downs is important as the junior slot receiver accounts for 26% of the team’s target share.
Fade – RB Elijah Green ($6,300) The secondary might be fraudulent, but Clemson’s rush defense is not. The Tigers allowed just 10.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 9th in rush play success rate.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Antoine Green ($6,600) Downs is obviously the target hog, but Green isn’t that far behind, averaging just under seven targets a game. Second on the team in touchdowns (7) and leads the Heels with 19.6 yards per catch and a 19.3 aDOT. While Clemson is 9th in success rate defensively, they’re also 63rd in pass play explosiveness allowed. That’s where Green comes in. I would not play a triple stack of Maye, Green and Downs, but pairing either WR with Maye is probably optimal.
Best of the Rest – TE Bryson Nesbit ($5,200) $5.2k for a tight end in this matchup is pricy, but Nesbit has been incorporated in the offense plenty since coming back from injury with 16 targets in the last three games. Four tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points on Clemson this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -16.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: UM 34 – Purd 16.5
Weather: Dome
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – n/a. Don’t feel the need to play any Purdue players here. The Boilermakers have done a good job over the years at slaying goliath – 3-0 in the last three meetings with top five teams. But this is not the same offense as it’s been in previous season, ranking 77th in points per drive and are averaging just 6.8 yards per pass attempt which is down significantly from previous years. Why? Beyond Charlie Jones, there is nobody that threatens you in the passing game. Purdue can’t beat Michigan straight up and will have to use some trick plays in order to generate offense.
Fade – QB Aidan O’Connell ($5,700) Cheap enough to where you maybe could consider, but just see the stats above for the Purdue passing game. Michigan finished second in the country in fantasy points allowed to opposing QB1s. We have a surplus of better options at QB here on the slate.
Bargain Bin – n/a.
Pivot Play – WR Charlie Jones ($7,400) I’m less enthused about this play after watching a 5-star true freshman lock up Marvin Harrison Jr. for the better part of the Game last week vs. Ohio State. But I do still believe that the car is better than the individual parts in the Michigan secondary and there are some vulnerabilities there that Jones could potentially take advantage of. Jones still has one of the highest target shares in the country at 30%.
Best of the Rest – RB Devin Mockobee ($6,100) By a WIDE margin, Michigan has allowed the fewest FPPG in the country to opposing RB1s. I wanted to put Mockobee as a potential pivot play, but the 7.0 FPPG allowed by the Wolverines this season is a jarring number. Mockobee has been productive against some of the better run defenses in the Big Ten, scoring double-digit fantasy points against Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin, but this is a step up in class. I wouldn’t say Michigan has struggled to defend tight ends this season, but we’ve also seen opposing TE1s be successful against this Wolverines defense. Luke Lachey and CJ Dippre combined for 34 fantasy points in their matchups with Michigan. Ohio State’s Cade Stover was targeted seven times last week. I wouldn’t totally rule out TE Payne Durham ($5,600) having a productive game, but that’s a steep salary to pay in this type of matchup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Donovan Edwards ($6,400) Will be very popular after his 216-yard outburst last week against Ohio State. With Blake Corum out, expect that Edwards gets the bulk of the rushing attempts with very little proven/capable depth behind him. Purdue was above average against the run this season, ranking 28th in rush play success rate and allowed just 16 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but this is a different animal with the Michigan offensive line. We even gave Edwards 4.0 passing yards in the projection in honor of his 70-yard passing touchdown in last year’s B1G championship game vs. Iowa.
Fade – n/a. Everyone is priced appropriately on the Michigan side that everyone of significance is in play.
Bargain Bin – RB CJ Stokes ($3,200) Tough play to project here. If this game is in the balance at any point beyond the first quarter, I don’t suspect we see much of Stokes. Played just four snaps total in the win over Ohio State. In the blowout over Nebraska in Week 11 as the RB2, Stokes did have eight carries for 68 yards. So should this game turn into a blowout, he’s getting first run after Donovan Edwards. And probably will still get some anyways as the backup now with Corum out and former 3-star recruit.
Pivot Play – QB J.J. McCarthy ($6,300) Going to assume that the Purdue staff will learn what NOT to do from the Ohio State game film, and at least have a safety or two over the top to limit any big plays in the passing game. That said, Michigan is down their star running back and likely looks to build upon the success they had last week throwing the ball in Columbus. Four quarterbacks scored 30 or more fantasy points against the Boilermakers this season and were 82nd in explosiveness allowed…which Michigan showed Saturday they’re plenty capable of hitting the big plays.
Best of the Rest – TE Colston Loveland ($3,800) While it was just the first game back from injury for Luke Schoonmaker, it was the 4-star freshman who played more offensive snaps vs. Ohio State and found the end-zone on a 45-yard touchdown. Purdue struggled defending tight ends this season, allowing 8.6 FPPG. No real difference between WR Cornelius Johnson ($5,100) or WR Ronnie Bell (5,700) from a snaps played standpoint as both are on the field around the same amount. Bell’s target numbers (80) dwarf Johnson (41) as he’s the far more reliable option between the two. Could roll a single bullet with either player but would not stack them with McCarthy. WR Roman Wilson ($4,400) is back to form following his Week 9 injury vs. Michigan State and did have a 70-yard touchdown in this same game a year ago.
Injury Notes – RB Blake Corum ($8,100) Ruled out for the season.