UTEP @ Boise State
Point-Spread: Boise State -26
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
UTEP:
Deion Hankins has already been ruled out for Friday, but head coach Dana Dimel said that all other “impact players” were back and practicing as of Wednesday morning. That might mean we are getting an extreme discount for RB1 Ronald Awatt who is now averaging seven yards a carry to begin the year with a touchdown in each of the first two games. While Boise State is the heavy favorite, should we be scared off by a defense that allowed over 250 yards and five yards a carry on the ground in their opener? While Hankins is out, Rey Flores looks to be the RB2, and led the Miners in snaps with Awatt unavailable for two quarters due to a left arm injury. Although the “impact players” being back at practice suggests Awatt will be a go for Friday, I’ll probably avoid here with the murky status.
I also think Gavin Hardison is potentially in play at $5,900 with a positive game-script favoring high passing volume as a 26-point dog. Competition level aside, Hardison is averaging a career-high 11.1 yards per attempt and completing 64.1 percent of his throws as UTEP ranks inside the Top 5 in EPA/Pass. It wasn’t much better for the Boise State defense through the air in Week 1, allowing 318 yards and four TDs to Dillon Gabriel. That said, these numbers also came against a winless New Mexico State team and Bethune Cookman.
Much of that success is due to Hardison’s connection with WR1 Jacob Cowing who has scored a touchdown in each of the first two weeks and is now averaging over 25.9 yards per catch with an aDOT of 16.0. Cowing and Justin Garrett feel way too cheap for two receivers that are dominating the target share once again (57 percent). JUCO transfer Tyrin Smith saw his snap counts increase dramatically (19 -> 42) from Week 0 to Week 1 and might see an increased role moving forward after posting 4-76-0 last time out.
Boise State:
CFB DFS wouldn’t officially be back without our first postgame scratch with George Holani being ruled out vs. UCF. There was zero indication that I saw Holani was even limited during fall camp, though head coach Andy Avalos stated, “he wasn’t ready to go this week” and didn’t want to jeopardize most of his season. Good reporting Boise State beat writers.
Alas, we will monitor pregame as to whether Holani will be in the lineup or not, but our suggestion is to not risk it with other appealing options on the slate. Not as though the offensive line did a good job of creating running lanes in Week 1 anyways, as the Broncos averaged 0.77 yards per carry as a team. Without Holani, this backfield is a wasteland with Cyrus Habibi-Likio and Andrew Van Buren who specialize at one thing – vulturing touchdowns. Combine that with an offensive line that was abused vs. UCF and we are avoiding this.
Aside from one boneheaded throw late, Hank Bachmeier played relatively well, completing 64.7 percent of his throws for 263 yards and two touchdowns. Despite being heavy favorites, I think this game script could still play in his favor with Holani possibly out still combined with how inept the Broncos were at running the football. Bachmeier’s interception masked how poor the play-calling was in the second half under new offensive coordinator Tim Plough who left much to be desired with his game plan. 39 passing attempts is in line with what we saw from Plough during his time at UC-Davis.
So, 5-91-2 is what Khalil Shakir can do when on a rep count? The senior receiver played just 21 snaps vs. UCF, fourth most amongst Boise State receivers, and still found a way to put up 26.8 fantasy points. Will need to check the injury report pregame on Friday to see what status Shakir is in – even though we probably won’t find out given how Boise State is so hush hush with injuries apparently. Of the snaps Shakir did not play, CT Thomas saw an increased role in the slot, though managed just one catch on three targets. It appears to this point he’s been relegated to backup duties. Junior Stefan Cobbs was a name that popped on plenty of fall practice reports, and he looks to have moved into the WR2 role now after posting 4-63-0 on six targets, and led the team with an aDOT of 15.0 vs. UCF. If moving off Shakir, or pairing the Boise State passing game, Cobbs would be the second option. Octavius Evans, once thought to be the heir apparent to John Hightower a few years back, saw starter reps and will be an integral part of the WR rotation.
We mentioned last week that the tight end position is typically involved in this offensive scheme, but the targets were split evenly between starter Riley Smith and Nebraska transfer Kurt Rafdal. I’ll avoid for now and focus on the receivers.
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