BYU vs. SMU
Point-Spread: SMU -10.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: SMU 33 – BYU 22.5
Weather: 89 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – WR Chase Roberts ($5,300) One of BYU’s team captains, Roberts is the established WR1 for the Cougars this season and that was on display last week with over 100 yards receiving and seven receptions on eight targets. If choosing a BYU pass-catcher, Roberts is far and away the best option.
Fade – WR Keelan Marion ($4,800) The former UConn transfer had a productive day with 61 yards on three receptions against Southern Illinois. The issue is Darius Lassiter’s return to the lineup this week bumps Marion back a touch. In Week’s 4-9 last season when Lassiter was in the starting lineup, Marion combined for just 7-91-0 in that five-game span.
Bargain Bin – WR JoJo Phillips ($3,100) Like Marion, Phillips’ playing time is probably squeezed with another body in the mix, but after posting a 57-yard touchdown reception in Week 1, the freshman is probably deserving of more playing time regardless.
Pivot Play – WR Darius Lassiter ($4,300) The former Eastern Michigan transfer will be back in uniform on Friday after sitting out in Week 1 to “satisfy terms of a granted NCAA eligibility waiver.” Lassiter was third on the team in receptions and targets a year ago.
Best of the Rest – QB Jake Retzlaff ($6,000) We completely dismissed BYU quarterbacks in the offseason, and maybe that was a mistake? We’ll get a better look against real competition, but Retzlaff was fantastic in the opener with over 340 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Not really a dual threat but Retzlaff is also active with his legs with over 20+ rushing yards in three of five starts. TE Keanu Hill ($4,200) was disappointing in the opener with just a single reception on five targets. BYU is known for utilizing the tight end position frequently in its passing offense. WR Kody Epps ($4,500) also failed to make an impact with just eight yards receiving, though he was third on the team in routes run. Split backfield right now between RB LJ Martin ($5,200) and RB Hinckley Ropati ($4,500) though it’s clear who the better option of the two is. We expect Martin’s reps to increase as he fully recovers from his fall camp injury.
Injury Notes – n/a
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB Brashard Smith ($6,400) Seamless transition for the Miami transfer, moving to running back from receiver over the offseason, now the clear-cut RB1 on the depth chart with over 40 combined fantasy points scored in the first two weeks. Southern Illinois averaged nearly five yards per carry in their Week 1 matchup against BYU.
Fade – WR Moochie Dixon ($5,400) Dixon will be back this week after being held out against Houston Christian with back spasms. We’ll fade this first game back as Dixon gets acclimated, and he’s not cheap either for coming on as a potential backup in this game. Same constant rotation at receiver we saw a year ago with 5-6 WR options rotating in and out for the Mustangs.
Bargain Bin – WR Romello Brinson ($3,900) Snap counts can be slightly deceiving in the early going, but Brinson leads all SMU receivers in snaps played through two games and third in targets. Cheapest option amongst the SMU pass-catchers.
Pivot Play – QB Preston Stone ($9,500) Here’s Rhett Lashlee’s quote ahead of the BYU matchup: “Preston’s our starter. He earned that job. He is the starter. He’s gonna start and he’s gonna play a lot. I still think you’ll see Kevin. The last game was the way it went. We kind of played back and forth a little more than we probably normally would, but it was good to get both those guys a lot of drives.” Do with that what you will.
Best of the Rest – TE RJ Maryland ($5,800) Quite game for Maryland against Houston Christian, but the starters took most of the night off in the blowout. Looking back at game logs over the last 15 games, Maryland has been best in competitive matchups which this should be. Leads all SMU players in targets (11). WR Jordan Hudson ($6,400) is too expensive at this pricing, and maybe that’s my disgust still after the Week 0 dud he put up. Hudson is sixth among SMU wideouts in routes run. WR Jake Bailey ($5,900) is second in targets (10) and fourth on the team in routes run.
Injury Notes – RB Jaylan Knighton ($4,700) and LJ Johnson ($4,800) Both SMU backs are banged up currently, though Lashlee said both should be available this week. Regardless of health status, both have fallen behind Smith on the depth chart. This bumps freshman RB Derrick McCall out of the equation should both be available.
Western Illinois vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 72 degrees / 9% rain / 7 mph winds
Western Illinois:
Losing by nearly 40 points to Northern Illinois doesn’t bode well for a future matchup with a Big Ten school. WR Tristen Duncan ($4,600) tops the list of options here, as he was targeted 10 times vs. the Huskies. WR Christian Anaya ($4,500) and WR Alijah Aragon ($4,400) weren’t as productive, but were second and third, respectively on the team in routes run. RB Cameren Smith ($3,000) is the bargain bin option, leading the team with 14 carries, while also targeted four times out of the backfield. Start QB Nate Lamb ($5,000) at your own risk, though he seems like he can run with 37 yards on seven attempts (not counting sacks).
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – QB Kurtis Rourke ($8,700) Rouke is the quarterback on this slate with the best matchup and we know he’ll play the entirety of the game – at least until the game is out of reach if it gets there. That said, Week 1 for the Hoosiers was all about establishing the run game, which they did to the tune of 234 yards against Florida International. Rourke was limited to just 11 fantasy points as a result. Does this week follow a similar game script?
Fade – RB Elijah Green ($4,900) The North Carolina transfer rushed for 82 yards and a touchdown against FIU but came on just five rushing attempts while playing just 14% of the offensive snaps. He seems to be the third option in the backfield and could be muddied further if Kaelon Black plays more in Week 2.
Bargain Bin – TE Zach Horton ($4,000) Short learning curve for Horton considering he transferred over to Indiana from James Madison along with this entire coaching staff. Caught three passes and a touchdown on four targets. The most attainable pass-catcher for the Hoosiers based on price.
Pivot Play – RB Ty’Son Lawton ($5,100) I did not expect Lawton to be Indiana’s lead ball-carrier in Week 1 considering he was a backup at JMU last season, along with the influx of transfers Indiana brought in during the offseason. Lawton is listed with the starters, though, and led the Hoosiers with 74 yards and a score on 17 attempts. Lawton held a 49% to 33% edge in snaps played over our initial projected starter RB Justice Ellison ($6,300).
Best of the Rest – WR Elijah Sarratt ($6,000) Sarratt wasn’t needed against FIU, tallying just two targets, but did run the most routes of any Indiana receiver. He’ll be more productive this week. WR Omar Cooper Jr. ($5,700) led the Hoosiers in targets (8) and his value will be determined whether Donaven McCulley plays. WR Myles Price ($5,500) was second in targets (6) and third in routes run.
Injury Notes – WR Donaven McCulley ($4,900) McCulley was limited to just nine snaps against FIU and wasn’t medically cleared to return to the game. Doesn’t sound like a long-term injury at all to HC Curt Cignetti, but probably not worth the risk in a matchup with an FCS opponent. Same goes for RB Kaelon Black ($5,700) who was limited to just one carry and was held back due to a hamstring injury. Black will be in none of my lineups at this price, considering both the injury and this will be a committee backfield.
Duke vs. Northwestern
Point-Spread: NW -3
O/U Total: 37
Implied Score: NW 20 – Duke 17
Weather: 63 degrees / 20% rain / 19 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Moore ($5,800) Best WR option on the slate by a rather large margin. In his last five games played dating back to 2023, Moore is now averaging over 11 targets per game with three 100-yard performances.
Fade – WR Javon Harvey ($5,000) The Old Dominion transfer played just 33% of the snaps last week against Elon with just two targets. Either Harvey is simply not very good, as he failed as a starter last year with the Monarchs, or he’s still getting acclimated to his new team / surroundings. We’re thinking the former.
Bargain Bin – WR Eli Pancol ($4,100) We had projected Harvey to become the team’s WR2 behind Jordan Moore, but he only played about a third of the game last week. The veteran Pancol caught every one of his seven targets against Elon, including a 50-yard touchdown.
Pivot Play – QB Maalik Murphy ($7,300) Murphy probably sits 4th on our QB pecking order for this slate behind Stone, Rourke and Retzlaff considering the very low game total. Murphy passed his first test with the Blue Devils last week with 290 yards and two scores. Stiffer challenge this week against a Northwestern defense that held a very good Miami (Ohio) team out of the end-zone in Week 1. The argument in favor of Murphy over perhaps a Preston Stone is that we know Murphy is going to play the entirety of the game, which cannot be said for the SMU QB.
Best of the Rest – WR Sahmir Hagans ($5,200) Pancol is the better bang for your buck option, but Hagans was on the field just as much vs. Elon and was targeted six times. He’s the pivot option away from Pancol. The backfield between RB Jaquez Moore ($5,800) and RB Star Thomas ($5,000) was evenly split against Elon. Probably because the team rushed for just 2.2 yards per carry as a group and the staff was trying any option to get a spark in the run game. We’ll have very limited exposure in the Duke backfield given the Week 1 struggles to run the football.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northwestern:
Top Play(s) – WR Bryce Kirtz ($5,100) A surplus of good WR options on this slate, which is semi-surprising given the lack of good quarterbacks. 25 of the 27 targets last week to Northwestern players went to wide receivers, with Kirtz topping the list with 6-91-0 on nine targets. His 79% offensive snaps played were the most of any Northwestern receiver in Week 1.
Fade – RB Joseph Himon ($4,100) We came into the year thinking that Himon was the solidified RB2 behind Cam Porter, but maybe that isn’t the case? RB Caleb Komolafe ($4,400) out-carried Himon 6-2 against Miami (Ohio), though neither player made much of an impact as the rushing production centered around Porter and Mike Wright. We’ll fade the RB backups entirely.
Bargain Bin – WR Frank Covey ($4,100) In the same vein as Kirtz above, Northwestern only threw it to three options against Miami (Ohio) – Kirtz, Covey and AJ Henning. Covey was targeted six times vs. the RedHawks while playing 67% of the offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Mike Wright ($8,100) Wright is the 4th or 5th option among QB choices for this slate as I have a difficult time seeing him hit value at this price point. His passing leaves much to be desired, but the inclusion in the run game is what keeps Wright in the pool of options, rushing for 64 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts last week. This new offensive system brought over from South Dakota State loves to implement the QB position in the run game.
Best of the Rest – WR AJ Henning ($4,700) Henning was targeted nine times with five receptions, running the second most routes on the team last week. The issue is his 3.8 yards per catch average and 8.5-yard aDOT. RB Cam Porter ($5,300) was ok last week with 63 yards on 13 attempts. Duke held Elon to under a yard per carry in Week 1.
Injury Notes – n/a
