Texas @ Arkansas
Point-Spread: Tex -6.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 86 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Texas:
Bijan Robinson. Lock n’ load. 20-25 touches per game is a given every week whether via the run or pass. The Razorbacks did the job a week ago, holding Rice to under three yards a carry, but facing arguably the best running back in the country is a different task entirely. Texas ranks No. 1 in the country in Offensive Power Success after just one week and should fare well against Barry Odom’s 3-3-5 defense. Arkansas did not allow Rice to have a rushing attempt over 12 yards all game long, but that’s not a concern here for a back like Robinson.
Odom is likely to have a spy on Robinson so that could open up some opportunities for Hudson Card and this passing game. Card did his job last week, completing 14-of-21 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns, feeding his playmakers in Robinson and WR1 Jordan Whittington. Different story this week facing an SEC opponent on the road, at night, in a hostile environment. I’ll probably fade Card, but have interest in Whittington who looked every bit the top option last week in the Texas passing game with 7-113-1 on seven targets. Talent has never been the issue, and he appears 100 percent healthy. Xavier Worthy and Joshua Moore actually posted more snaps than Whittington, though impact was minimal with four catches on seven targets. No other WR logged more than nine snaps which make all three intriguing from that standpoint.
Arkansas:
This game will fall upon the shoulders and legs of K.J. Jefferson. Stat-line is jaded because Jefferson was not good for much of the contest last week with the Razorbacks scoring just seven points at half time. Just two designed runs for Jefferson vs. Rice, but the result was 102 yards and two rushing scores. So much for looking overweight this offseason. Tempting at his $5,900 salary as the ball is going to be in his hands quite a bit tonight. As for his WR1 Treylon Burks, it sounds as though he will be closer to 100 percent this week despite playing 58 of 67 snaps a week ago, leading the team with five catches on nine targets. Slot receiver De’Vion Warren played 53 of 67 snaps, though the production was minimal with two catches for 14 yards. He proved capable a year ago with three touchdowns in a two-game span vs. Mississippi State and Auburn.
So much for the turf toe with Trelon Smith in fall camp, rushing for 102 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries with no other running back seeing more than seven attempts. Don’t love the matchup against a Texas defensive front that ranks 26th in D Rush Play PPA after one week and held a good Louisiana rushing attack to just 2.62 yards per attempt on 29 carries. Too pricy for the slate in my opinion.
If your membership provides access to exclusive DFS content, click here to view full write-up, or visit Exclusive Content section on theCFFsite homepage.
If you do not have access to exclusive DFS content and would like to become a member of theCFFsite, click here for details.