Pittsburgh @ Tennessee
Point-Spread: Pitt -3
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 2% rain / 3 mph winds
Pittsburgh:
Should we be impressed that Tennessee allow one of the worst quarterbacks in college football, Matt McDonald, to complete 66 percent of his throws last week? Lot of dinking and dunking as he averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt, but this was a QB that had a 44 percent completion percentage against MAC competition last year. Bodes well for Kenny Pickett on Saturday after completing 73 percent of his passes with two touchdowns in an opening week win over UMass. Competition levels aside, the best part of Pickett’s stat-line is the 37 passing attempts in a game where the Panthers won by 44 points. That syncs up perfectly with the per game averages of att/g from Pickett over the last two seasons.
3-way tie atop the Pitt depth chart this week at running back with Israel Abanikanda, Vincnet Davis and A.J. Davis listed with the dreaded OR. Tough to glean much from an opening week blowout in terms of their utilization here moving forward, but a promising sign that Abanikanda led the way in snaps as he’s, by far, their most talented option. The only one I’d consider this weekend, though you shouldn’t expect more than 15 carries for the RB1 here under Whipple.
Not loving the cost for Jordan Addison here as the highest-priced WR on the slate. While Addison picked up right where he left off after a stellar freshman season with 5-39-1 on a team-high eight targets, his yards per reception averages (7.8) are also in line with what he produced a year ago. An aDOT of 14.4 is a substantial increase over last year (9.0) so maybe we see him stretching the field a bit more in 2021?
Aside from Addison, the secondary options in the passing game we will be looking at are Taysir Mack, Jared Wayne and starting tight end Lucas Krull. Mack had a substantial advantage over Wayne in snaps (59 / 37) vs. UMass last week and routes run (38 / 21), AND we get a discount in salaries on DK if choosing the former Indiana transfer. Krull might be the best bet of the three at $3,700, playing the second most snaps of any offensive skill position player, and converted on all five of his targets for 58 yards and a TD. Whipple has been known over the years to feature his TE dating back to UMass with Adam Breneman.
Tennessee:
Joe Milton’s 25 fantasy points look good on the surface but he was no good after the first quarter vs. Bowling Green, as he completed just 48 percent of his passes and lost a fumble. The accuracy issues are not surprising in the slightest as those have been with him since high school. Where I do like Milton this week is his potential volume and matchup vs. the Pittsburgh secondary. The Panthers’ two starting safeties have all of nine career starts on their resume so head coach Josh Heupel could look to test them deep and generate some big plays through the air. I also think we could see this Tennessee offense air it out Saturday facing one of the best run defenses in the country over the last 12 games as the Panthers allowed just 2.4 yards per carry in 2020 and held UMass to just 42 yards total last week on the ground.
Promising start for the Tennessee rushing attack with 331 yards on the ground against an undermanned Bowling Green defense. It doesn’t appear RB2 Tiyon Evans will be available this week so the workload could fall on the shoulders of starter Jabari Small who rushed for 117 yards and a TD on 22 carries. I won’t have much exposure of any running back facing this Pittsburgh run defense until they show signs of weakness.
Tennessee receivers remain too rich for my liking as they were last week as DK apparently thinks this will replicate the UCF offense immediately. Jalin Hyatt was the featured option in the passing game as expected with a team-high eight targets, but was plagued with two drops. We saw immediately where Heupel’s scheme will impact the production of the Vols’ receivers as Hyatt’s 17.3 aDOT dwarfs his averages from a year ago. Velus Jones, expected to be one of the top two options, was limited to just nine routes run and a single target. Cedric Tillman was second on the team in targets with six and all we need is one big play for him to match his $5,200 cost. An aDOT of 39 yards makes that feasible but Tennessee will get Jimmy Calloway back this week which could affect the WR rotations.
Tulsa @ Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OK State -13
O/U Total: 51
Weather: 87 degrees / 0% rain / 19 mph winds
Tulsa:
So much for Brinsanity. First-year starter Davis Brin struggled mightily vs. defensive power UC-Davis, throwing two interceptions and only 201 yards in a Week 1 defeat. Not giving up hope just yet for season-long CFF but he’s not an option this week with an implied total of just 19 points vs. a stingy Oklahoma State secondary.
Won’t be rostering Brin, but the potential game script sets up well for the Tulsa receivers, none of whom cost more than $5k. WR1 Keylon Stokes and Josh Johnson combined for 59 percent of the target share, though it was JuanCarlos Santana and Sam Crawford who played the most snaps of the four primary receivers. Would favor Stokes / Johnson if choosing, but this likely is a similar situation to last season where all four wideouts see extensive playing time.
Unsurprisingly, the Tulsa running game was churning out yards behind an offensive line that returned all five starters. To the dismay of their fantasy owners, it was a near split between Deneric Prince and Shamari Brooks in both snaps and carries, and it’s a very real possibility this shared backfield continues as long as both remain healthy. Brooks comes at the discounted price of $3,800 despite averaging eight yards a carry on 10 attempts. Prince, the former Texas A&M transfer, broke out with 179 yards and a TD on 14 carries, and might be the preferred option of the two moving forward. His $6,200 price tag with an unfavorable matchup probably eliminates him from the player pool. It should be noted that Prince did find some success last year vs. Oklahoma State when filling in for the injury Brooks, rushing for 82 yards on 14 carries. Tulsa running backs are not featured in the passing game.
Oklahoma State:
Spencer Sanders is back this week for the Cowboys as he’s out of protocol and has practiced all week. While Sanders hasn’t lived up to his 4-star billing during his Oklahoma State career, he started to turn a corner late last season with back-to-back 300-yard passing performances. All offseason, the talk was he’s improved on the mental side of the game under second-year quarterback coach Tim Rattay. We’ll see if that comes to fruition Saturday. Sanders does provide us with a rushing element which makes him more attractive for the slate, averaging 11.2 carries per game in 2020. Sanders’ legs might be needed to boost an anemic rushing attack for Oklahoma State that averaged just 1.9 yards per carry last week vs. Missouri State.
Despite the abysmal rushing numbers, we did see LD Brown lead the way with 15 carries and a significant advantage over RB2 Jaylen Warren (52-23) in snap counts. Both players found the end-zone but neither were efficient with the attempts as they failed to average over two yards a carry. Yeeesh. Dezmon Jackson, originally thought to be the RB2 here, only saw three carries on five snaps.
Our concerns with Brennan Presley came to fruition for at least a week, as he was out-targeted and out-snapped by a wide margin compared to Tay Martin who led the team with 6-107-1 on 10 targets. Both remain viable options in this passing game, as Presley amassed seven targets as well, but his long-term impact this season is a concern with Mike Gundy’s system typically favoring the outside receivers. Braydon Johnson was second amongst the receivers in snaps, but as has been the case for much of his career, produced next to nothing with his touches. Freshman Bryson Green was second on the team with eight targets, and reasonably priced at $3,300.
19 MPH winds expected on Saturday
South Carolina @ East Carolina
Point-Spread: USC -2
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 77 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
South Carolina:
Eastern Illinois tried what many opponents will attempt to do this season vs. South Carolina – stack the box and force this team to throw the football. Worked to an extent, but the Gamecocks still ran for 254 yards on the day, but we’ll see this same strategy attempted from opposing defenses moving forward.
Kevin Harris is back in the lineup after missing last week, and head coach Shane Beamer said that the 1,000-yard running back is full-go, stating “he’s on no rep count or pitch count so Kevin will play a full game…. based on the rotation.” I think that last part is key here. Beamer also stated that he’s not just going to kick to the curb guys that played well last week, including Zaquandre White who rushed for 128 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, while adding another score on four catches in the receiving game. At $4,900, I think I’d prefer White over Harris’ price-tag but we run the concern of not being totally sure how Beamer will divvy the workload. MarShawn Lloyd and Juju McDowell both saw double-digit carries last week, but I’m eliminating both from my pool with Harris back in the lineup.
Also back in the lineup is Luke Doty who has been out with a foot injury, but Beamer was less optimistic with his quotes, saying he’s still working his way back to 100 percent. Gamesmanship or is Doty not ready to roll? Zeb Noland threw four touchdown passes vs. Eastern Illinois but I’m not relying on this type of production weekly from a guy that was a student manager two weeks ago.
Pure dart throws at the wide receiver position for a team that probably won’t need to throw it more than 25 times vs. East Carolina. For once, a depth chart stayed true to form in college football with listed starters Jalen Brooks, Dakereon Joyner and Josh Vann seeing the most snaps. Truly have no strong opinions on these three players so might as well role with the cheapest if choosing one in Vann who did find the end-zone last week. Tight end Nick Muse also added a touchdown reception on three targets.
East Carolina:
Tough to tell yet just exactly what kind of South Carolina defense ECU will be facing on Saturday. The Gamecocks blanked Eastern Illinois, holding the Panthers to just 109 yards of total offense. On the other hand, this is a new defensive scheme and fairly new roster composition with just 58 percent of the returning production back from a year ago.
Holton Ahlers is the G5 version is Brennan Armstrong – a southpaw that accumulates incredible volume at the quarterback position. 40 passing attempts for 295 yards last week vs. a good Appalachian State defense, while also adding in 12 carries for minimal yardage. Implied total of 27 for ECU so we are looking at four touchdowns potentially here and with no true values at the QB position so someone we must take into consideration. We only have Ahlers projected for 17.8 fantasy points for Saturday, but we know the ball will be in his hands a ton.
ECU has two really talented running backs in Keaton Mitchell and Rahjai Harris but this is a split backfield running behind a porous offensive line that ranks 90th in stuff rate and 67th in line yards after just one week. Had a difficult test in Week 1 vs. Appalachian State but should we expect better against an SEC defense? One not-so-subtle difference from Week 1 compared to last season is ECU’s usage of their running backs in the passing game where Harris/Mitchell combined for 10 receptions on 13 targets. This makes them more intriguing on DK’s scoring format, but again, you are looking at a near 50-50 split in snaps (38-31 in favor of Mitchell).
Neither C.J. Johnson nor Tyler Snead did much of anything last week, combining for seven catches on 13 targets, but we’ve seen both explode to break the slate at a given moment. Johnson is the team’s deep threat with an aDOT of 12.3 compared to just 4.2 for Snead. Both feel a bit too pricy for my taste when I could just nab someone like Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson for a similar price. If going cheap on the ECU receivers, I like Jsi Hatfield at $3,500 as someone who has garnered consistent praise during fall camp, and had three catches on five targets last week. His aDOT of 15.2 was tops on the team (min. 2 targets) and is the fastest receiver on the team.
Oregon @ Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -14.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Oregon:
Only play from the Oregon side I have much interest in is Anthony Brown at $6,900. Think what you want from him as a quarterback, and some Oregon folks are already calling for the FR in Ty Thompson, but I care about volume and fantasy production. Two total touchdowns and 238 combined yards in the win over Fresno State last week, adding 16 carries which is consistent from what to expect of a Joe Moorhead quarterback. Taller task this week against an Ohio State front on the road, so I won’t have much exposure here, but he’s the only Duck I’m considering. Brown was sacked just once last week but was pressure nine times, seven of which on the right side of the line where Ohio State’s 5-star DE Zach Harrison lines up.
As expected, split backfield last week between C.J. Verdell and Travis Dye with the snap counts between the two practically identical. Verdell wound up with the slight edge in touches, but in a contest where its to be expected that Oregon puts the ball in the air more, I’d favor Dye who ran 19 routes last week and is the team’s primary 3rd-down back.
Oregon receivers are a guessing game from week to week, but they’re cheap. Johnny Johnson, Mycah Pittman and Kris Hutson dominated the snap counts, playing 78 percent of the game vs. Fresno State. Johnson found the end-zone last week on four targets and his 18.3 aDOT led the team. Pittman seems to be the favorite of the scouting community but has done very little in his career to this point and had one of Oregon’s two drops last week. Led the team in targets with five.
Ohio State:
Garrett Wilson is the smash play of the week at $5,900 and the player we should all have the highest exposure to on the slate. Led the team with five catches on 11 targets and found the end-zone vs. Minnesota. His 14.7 aDOT was also the highest on the team in Week 1. Chris Olave would be the contrarian GPP play because of his pricing, and he also put up big numbers vs. the Gophers with 117 yards and two touchdowns on six targets. Seems that the target tree for Ohio State will still funnel through those two again in 2021 with no other receiver having more than two targets. WR3 Jaxon Smith-Njigba and TE1 Jeremy Ruckert are the only other pass-catchers for the Buckeyes deserving of consideration, leaning towards the latter as he played the most snaps of any skill position player for Ohio State last week.
WARNING – Message boards rumors in full effect regarding CJ Stroud who apparently injured his shoulder in the second quarter vs. Minnesota and is 50-50 to play on Saturday. Reading further, sounds as though Stroud practiced on Thursday, but an Ohio State 247 staff member did note that in the media viewing portion on Wednesday, he was practicing with “minimal impact” and that Kyle McCord “can fill in.” I don’t like the sounds of that. This is an Oregon secondary that is still missing a few pieces, and allowed 298 yards to Jake Haener last week so I don’t want to eliminate the Ohio State QB from the player pool, but one hit to Stroud might end his night if this shoulder injury is not 100 percent.
Prices and rushing volume split probably eliminate all three Ohio State running backs from our player pool. Miyan Williams did little after his 71-yard touchdown run, and gave way to more Master Teague and Tre Henderson in the second half. Expect Williams to get the nod again, and would be my favorite play of the three for GPPs as his ownership should be minimal. Just one lone target last week to any Ohio State running back.
Florida @ South Florida
Point-Spread: UF -28.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Weather: 85 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Florida:
The Gators have the highest implied total of the slate, but with the style of offense they’re running in 2021, the quarterback position is really the only one of interest for me. And, of course, we have major question marks and storylines to follow with that spot as Emory Jones remains the starter…for now. Head coach Dan Mullen stuck by his starter following the FAU performance, and his history with QBs indicate he typically gives a longer leash than most. But Anthony Richardson’s 160 rushing yards on just seven carries might wind up forcing Mullen’s hand. Both will play on Saturday, but the prices make this a situation to mostly avoid. If leaning one way, give me the confirmed starter who takes on a USF defense that was thrashed in every which way by NC State last week. Could be a GPP winner with others scared off by the Richardson threat.
In season-long CFF formats, we have zero interest in the Florida backfield, but that’s not the case this week against a USF defense that allowed 293 yards on the ground last week. The QBs will dip into that volume a great deal, but both Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis were effective last week with 135 combined yards and three total touchdowns. I did not watch the game admittedly, but I was under the assumption Pierce was the starter in the backfield. Davis wound up with a significant edge here in snaps, carries and routes run. Pierce added five receptions on five targets in the passing game.
You could go in any which direction here at receiver as Florida will rotate between 5-6 different options in this blowout scenario. Rick Wells found the end-zone last week and was tied for the team lead in targets with five. Justin Shorter and Jacob Copeland are still my best guesses to lead the team in most receiving categories by year’s end, but their prices take them out of the equation here. Ja’Markis Weston is min priced and had 44 yards on three targets. Tight end Kemore Gamble is also min priced and was on the field 84 percent of the time vs. Florida Atlantic – more than any other FL skill position player. Just one target.
South Florida:
LOL. No. If you desperately feel the need to roster a USF player, WR1 Xavier Weaver is the only option with 10 targets last week vs. NC State with an aDOT of 19.9. That’s it.
Rutgers @ Syracuse
Point-Spread: Rutg -2
O/U Total: 52
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Rutgers:
The 61 points put up by the Scarlet Knights in Week 1 speaks more to the ineptness of the Temple offense rather than an offensive explosion. After one week, Rutgers ranks No. 3 nationally in average starting field position with multiple drives starting in Temple territory. Noah Vedral was very pedestrian last week, completing just 55 percent of his throw for 138 yards and a TD while adding 58 rushing yards on eight attempts. The issue is Greg Schiano’s affinity for backup Johnny Langan who gets a chunk of carries in the red-zone as a wildcat QB, finding the end-zone twice against the Owls. Vedral scored more than 21 fantasy points just twice in seven games last season and is a low-upside choice that is not appealing from a GPP standpoint.
Same logic applies to Isaih Pacheco who found the end-zone last week on 14 carries, but averaged just 2.5 yards per carry. His 18 routes run led all running backs, but he will also give way to backup Aaron Young who thrives as a pass-catcher. Syracuse is employing a new 3-3-5 defense that had some miscues with missed tackles in Week 1 vs. Ohio, allowing 4.19 yards a carry, but held De’Montre Tuggle in check for most of the day.
Only two WR options for Rutgers are expected names in Bo Melton and Aron Cruickshank who combined for nearly have of the total team targets in Week 1. Based on snap counts, it appears as though there was a rotation at the third receiver spot so these are the two we are focused on for now. Melton has now accounted for at least four catches in 10 of his last 11 games, and played all but one single snap vs. Temple.
Syracuse:
I continue to be all the way out on Tommy DeVito who did nothing to inspire confidence that he’ll hold this job for the entirety of the season. Just 92 yards passing on 17 attempts and a couple missed opportunities to big plays with a pair of near touchdowns to Taj Harris. Some of the struggles could be attributed, once again, to poor offensive line play that resulted in multiple protection breakdowns. DeVito added 49 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground, but that is not sustainable. I’m out.
As for Harris, I like him quite a bit this week in spite of questionable QB play, as he led the Cuse with six catches on a team-high eight targets and a pair of near touchdowns as mentioned above. Dating back to last season, Harris accounted for double-digit targets in four of the final six games, and the QB play wasn’t any better then either. He’s in the GPP queue. Starters Anthony Queeley and Sharod Johnson saw 85 percent of the offensive snaps, and while their production was minimal, they were on the field exclusively with very little rotation as the position.
Running back was a minor surprise with Sean Tucker garnering 74 percent of the carries that went to Syracuse backs, a distinct change from year’s past under Dino Babers who has typically preferred a split backfield. Not sure we can glean much from the Rutgers run defense in Week 1 vs. an overmatched Temple team, but the Knights rank 67th in D Rush Play PPA and 43rd in D Rush Play Success Rate after one week of play. Babers might realize that 20 carries for Tucker is the recipe for success , but not a ton of history to justify that thinking. Tucker is in the pool of options.
Toledo @ Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -17
O/U Total: 55.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 16 mph winds
Toledo:
I’m completely out with the Toledo quarterback situation this week with both Carter Bradley and Dequan Finn seeing equal snap counts last week. I believe this was the plan all along to get both quarterbacks involved in a blowout scenario and fully expect Bradley to be under center when this matchup with Notre Dame kicks off. But why roster a QB that is likely to be taken off the field at certain points in favor of a rushing option, particularly going up against this Notre Dame defense. No, it was not a great showing against Florida State for new DC Marcus Freeman, but full expect them to bounce back against a MAC opponent. I’ll fade the QBs here.
Bryant Koback is the play of most interest here against an Irish defense that allowed 264 rushing yards and 5.5 yards per carry vs. the Seminoles. Is Toledo capable of putting up those kinds of numbers? Probably not, but Koback is a volume eater with 20+ touches in five of his six games played last season. If the Irish pass rush gets home, Koback will be the beneficiary of those quarterback checkdowns so the negative game script doesn’t have a major impact here. I don’t believe Toledo has settled the RB2 job yet either so expect Koback to play the majority of the contest.
Nothing to glean from the WR snap counts last week as it was evenly spread amongst 6-7 receivers, aside from this will likely be similar to last year where no Toledo wideout had more than 18 percent of the target share. Devin Maddox’s production came on one play, an 80-yard touchdown reception. Last year’s leading receiver, Isaiah Winstead, provides some salary savings as he’s $600 cheaper. Both he and Bryce Mitchell are the big-play threats, averaging over 17 YPC in 2020. They ran just 14 combined routes last week. Danzel McKinley-Lewis was tied with Koback for the team lead in targets with 3.
Notre Dame:
How this game plays out for Notre Dame this week falls on the play of the offensive line in my opinion. With four new starters, there were expected growing pains, and they showed at times vs. Florida State. 97th in line yards created, 85th in offensive power success and 85th in stuff rate. Not good against an average Seminole defense.
Despite the struggles, Kyren Williams feels like a smash play at his pricing given his inclusion in all facets of the offense, with 18 carries and six targets on 28 targets run last week. Williams and Garrett Wilson are the two players I’ll have the highest exposure to on Saturday, though we could see their ownership percentages reflect that interest as I assume most DFS players will be of similar thinking. C’Bo Flemister is out this week again, so the backup duties will fall on sophomore Chris Tyree, though he played just 18 snaps total vs. FSU.
Was Jack Coan’s Week 1 performance a fluke or should we expect more of the same? I tend to lean towards the fluke side of the argument, but his production this week will be tied to how the offensive line performs. We’ve seen in the past where the Irish have been able to maul inferior opponents in the running game, leading to decreased volume from the QB position, and we’ve noted our concerns already with the offensive line. I think with his pricing and lack of rushing ability, his ownership percentages will be minimal this week in larger GPPs.
Can we rationalize spending $7,400 on a tight end in Michael Mayer? The superstar sophomore played all 72 snaps last week and led the Irish with 13 targets. Mayer also was the team leader in routes run with 40, and his production probably could’ve been more had it not been for two drops. The pleasant surprise last weekend was WR1 Kevin Austin who is finally healthy it appears, catching four passes on seven targets for a touchdown and an aDOT of 22.3. WR2 Braden Lenzy finished fourth on the team with four targets on 43 snaps.
UAB @ Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -23.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
UAB:
Implied total of just 10 points, and I have a hard time seeing this UAB offense reaching that mark vs. a Georgia defense that allowed all of three points to Clemson. Motivation levels might be lacking after the high of last week, but I’m not rostering a single UAB player in any GPP or Cash lineup. Receivers Ryan Davis and Trea Shropshire tied for the team lead with five targets a piece in the opener, and would be my only leans as they are $3.8k and $4.2k respectively.
Georgia:
It does not appear as though J.T. Daniels will play this week, missing a ton of first-team reps in practice and considering the opponent, it might be wise for the staff to hold him out. Carson Beck will get the start in his place in all likelihood, but we don’t get a discount on him either at $7k. This feels like a Kirby Smart type of game where Georgia pounds the rock 40+ times.
With that in mind, I won’t be rostering any of the UGA receiver this week either. Smart’s comments on both Kearis Jackson and Dominick Blaylock this week indicate neither are 100 percent where they need to be so I assume their reps will be limited. Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Jermaine Burton saw the most snaps of any UGA receivers last week against Clemson, but are priced out of the range where I feel comfortable having them in my lineup considering the game script for UGA this week. Maybe Ladd McConkey at min pricing as he had two receptions on three targets and the third most snaps of the receivers? Don’t think the juice is worth the squeeze for anyone here.
If UGA grounds and pounds on Saturday, I see myself investing quite a bit of capital in Kendall Milton as the pivot play to Zamir White at just $3,200, or rostering both in the same lineup isn’t a stretch. In three blowout wins last season of 20 points or more, Milton never did have more than eight carries in a game so there is risk, but I do believe Smart will be looking to get his sophomore back more touches in his second year. Conversely, White had four rushing TDs in those three games in 2020 and is arguably the safest play on the slate this week. James Cook was a non-factor as a runner last week but had four receptions on four targets and 11 routes run.
California @ TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -11.5
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 91 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
California:
Implied total of 18 means we can generally avoid this Cal team coming off a disappointing loss to Nevada last week. More of the same last week from Chase Garbers who tallied just 9.6 fantasy points with a lone touchdown. I was thinking a second year of development in Bill Musgave’s system would yield better results, but apparently not. Garbers scored 20 or more fantasy points in three of the four games played last season so maybe there is improvements on the horizon, but I’m not willing to spend even $6,500 to find out.
Damien Moore is interesting because he had a significant advantage over Marcel Dancy and Christopher Brooks from a snap count and volume vantage point in what was expected to be more of a committee approach like we saw a year ago. Just 79 yards and a touchdown for Moore against Nevada, but the offensive line stats really stand out here. Still early so these could change, but Cal ranked No. 1 in O Power Success and Stuff Rate, and are No. 6 in line yards. Dancy had four catches on five targets.
Five different receivers saw significant game reps vs. Nevada, but it was slot receiver Nikko Remigio who had the big day with 7-22-1 on 10 targets. aDOT of 1.3 doesn’t provide much upside here, but could be an option in this DK PPR scoring. Willing to spend $5,200 for him? Probably not. Trevon Clark finished second with seven targets, and last year’s leading receiver Kekoa Crawford had just three.
TCU:
I need to see TCU facing a formidable opponent before making any judgements if the offense is improved or not from a year ago. Max Duggan was not needed much on the ground last week with just two carries vs. Duquesne. Duggan did average 10.9 yards per attempt in Week 1 with an aDOT of 12.1 which were considerably higher than a year ago. Maybe dependent on the competition level, but we might see some deep shots taken against a Cal defense that allowed 8.0 yards per attempt to Nevada.
Targets were evenly dispersed amongst the TCU receivers with six players accounting for two or more targets. WR1 Quentin Johnston led the way with seven targets, and I do believe it was notable that Duggan looked to his two outside receivers in Johnston and Savion Williams early last Saturday as each had two catches on the opening drive. Perhaps speaks to the comfort levels with those two? If TCU does look to the deep passing game, both Johnston and Williams have size mismatches on the outside, standing 6-foot-4 each. Taye Barber, Blair Conwright, Marcel Brooks and JD Spielman are all part of the WR rotation, and I don’t have any differing thoughts on them to sway you one way or the other.
Full-fledged RBBC here from TCU, though the primary options of Zach Evans and Kendre Miller are priced down to where maybe we can consider them. Evans served his two-series suspension and ran for a TD on the third drive. Miller rushed for a TD on the fourth drive. Expect this to continue throughout the season, and we should see Duggan utilized more on the ground in a closer contest. California did hold Nevada to just 2.35 yards per attempt.
Texas A&M @ Colorado
Point-Spread: A&M -17
O/U Total: 50
Weather: 91 degrees / 1% rain / 5 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Plenty of good and bad that came with Haynes King debut last weekend. Completed two-thirds of his throws, averaged about nine yards per attempt and displayed that athleticism that helped win him the job over Zach Calzada. Downside is the three interceptions against a bad Kent State defense. A&M’s game plan last week included keeping King between the hashes for 29 of his 33 attempts, and will be interesting to see if they look to get him outside the tackle box this week to utilize his legs. I suspect we also see more than five carries from King – Kellen Mond averaged 11 rushing attempts per contest in three seasons.
If choosing a third “lock” behind Kyren Williams and Garrett Wilson, a $6,700 Isaiah Spiller fits the bill after topping 100 yards last week on 17 carries. In what expects to be a more competitive contest, A&M will lean on their workhorse back more than last week where Devon Achane dipped into the volume. The offensive line, a major question mark entering the season, graded out as a Top 5 unit last week per PFF so maybe one area of concern is squashed for the Aggies.
Ainias Smith, as expected, spent most of his time at receiver last week, leading the team with 8-100-2 on 10 targets. Colorado’s linebackers struggle in coverage, and this could be an area to exploit for Smith with seven of his 10 targets coming within 10 yards of the LOS. This could also favor TE Jalen Wydermyer who had a quiet day with four receptions, but was second with eight targets. Caleb Chapman and Chase Lane were the only other receivers to see passes directed their way last weekend, and would favor the former here as the team’s primary deep threat – aDOT of 21.3.
Colorado:
I think we can safely avoid Brendon Lewis this week even at $5,900 against one of the best defenses in the country. Lewis wasn’t tasked to do much last week in the blowout of Northern Colorado, completing just 10 passes along with 44 yards on eight carries, but the overall offense of the Buffs left much to be desired. In total last week, Colorado had more penalty yardage than passing yards. I know A&M is on the road this week in a different environment, but if they can hold Dustin Crum to just 89 yards passing and two interceptions, they’re going to suffocate Lewis.
The Buffs spread the ball around vs. Northern Colorado with Jarek Broussard, Ashaad Clayton and Alex Fontenot all seeing extended work. My guess is that changes slightly this week in favor of Broussard as they’ll lean on the former Pac-12 POY in a high-profile matchup. Colorado played eight different starters along the offensive line in Week 1, and even the team beat writer considers the group average when ranking them versus other Pac-12 teams. How do they fare against a top-tier SEC opponent? Kent State was able to find plenty of success on the ground, averaging over five yards a carry and 226 total yards on the ground. Maybe we should give Broussard a closer look than originally anticipated?
No receiver ran more than 13 routes vs. N. Colorado, and that was actually tight end Brady Russell. No clarity right now as to how the WR room shakes out here, and minimal interest in anyone here this week. Dimitri Stanley, La’Vontae Shenault and Brenden Rice remain my projected top three, but that is dicey.
Ball State @ Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -22
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Ball State:
If you want runback candidates with the Ball State offense, it’s the passing game where we need to target, specifically the receivers in Justin Hall and Yo’Heinz ‘ketchup’ Tyler who dominated the market share last week with 12 of the team’s 17 receptions for 169 yards and two touchdowns. Cincinnati transfer Jayshon Jackson was the only other receiver to log a target last week vs. Western Illinois. While I still think Hall is a viable candidate this week even at $6,100, prior history vs. P5 schools isn’t great. 6-39-0 in 2019 vs. Indiana, 1-6-0 vs. Indiana again in 2018 and 6-71-0 vs. Notre Dame. As was the case last year, Hall will get touches on fly sweeps, and had four carries in Week 1.
Zero interest in the Ball State rushing attack facing a Penn State defense that held Wisconsin to just three yards a carry. Will Jones is listed atop the depth chart once again after rushing for 93 yards and a score on 18 attempts. Tye Evans was battling a leg injury during fall camp and was a scratch last week. Unsure if he returns in Week 2, and if he did, would make Jones even more unplayable. Running backs typically aren’t featured as pass-catchers in this scheme.
As for Discord favorite Drew Plitt, I do suspect that if Ball State does score two touchdowns as Vegas predicts, it will come via the pass, but do we trust him on the road in a hostile Big Ten stadium that hasn’t had fans in the stands in over a calendar year? I’m looking elsewhere.
Penn State:
Do you think Jahan Dotson saw what Western Illinois receiver did to Ball State last week? WIU threw for 367 yards against this secondary with Dennis Houston catching 12 passes for 237 yards and two scores. Only way Dotson doesn’t have a monster game is if Penn State gets things rolling on the ground and there’s no need to put the ball in the air much. Parker Washington and WR3 KeAndre Lambert-Smith will both be in play as well, combining for eight receptions on 11 targets last week, and both are $4k or less.
Sean Clifford wasn’t sharp last week, completing just 54 percent of his throws, but some can be forgiven facing a top 10 defense in Wisconsin on the road. He didn’t run much vs. the Badgers with just two carries, but does have that in his arsenal in an offensive scheme that has typically given its QBs carries so there is always that threat. Week 1 proved this Ball State defense will provide little resistance through the air.
The Cardinals were better defending the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per attempt, but this is a step up in class. A pleasant surprise in the Penn State backfield last week was Noah Cain who appears 100 percent healthy as he dominated the snap counts among Nittany Lions running backs, and rushed for 48 yards on eight carries and a score, while adding another five catches on six targets as a receiver.
Iowa @ Iowa State
Point-Spread: ISU -4.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Weather: 91 degrees / 0% rain / 17 mph winds
Iowa:
Spencer Petras is never in the player pool, particularly against a Top 30 defense like Iowa State on the road. He’ll have his opportunities with the Cyclones keying in on Tyler Goodson, but this is a player that scored more that 21 fantasy points just once last season against a terrible Illinois defense. Petras will also be facing a 3-3-5 defensive scheme that gave him fits last year in his worst pass-graded game of the season. Full fade and live with the results if he is somehow part of the winning GPP lineup.
As for Goodson, the Hawkeyes will undoubtedly lean on him against an Iowa State defense that allowed just 1.76 yards a carry in Week 1. How did the Hawkeyes offensive line fair vs. Indiana? Rank No. 1 in the country in O Power Success abut 72nd in rush play PPA and 50th in run play success rate. Those numbers don’t inspire a ton of confidence Goodson can have a huge week. I can’t envision myself spending $7,100 for Goodson when Isaiah Spiller is sitting there $400 cheaper in what should be a slug-it-out type affair.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. and tight end Sam LaPorta are the only pass-catchers of interest for me. Just two targets last week for Tracy but he did play all 63 snaps. LaPorta led with five catches on a team-high eight targets.
Iowa State:
Discouraging opener for Breece Hall who logged just 69 yards and a TD. Good for us that took the under on his prop bet facing an FCS opponent, but not what you want to see for a player that had 23 carries and now faces arguably the best run defense in the country. Folks will be off him this week after a lackluster performance, so this could be a contrarian play for GPPs as we know the volume will be there for him. Iowa State’s offensive line was a massive disappointment, as runners were stuffed on nine of 33 rushing attempts and come out of the gates ranking 72nd in line yards created.
Brock Purdy wasn’t great either last week, averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt and the Cyclones managed just one touchdown in three red-zone trips. Purdy was effective on the ground with 56 yards on nine carries, and Iowa has traditionally struggled against QBs who can use their legs. A success rate of 52 percent on passing downs indicate they weren’t as bad last week as the high-level stat-line shows. Still can’t envision many shares of Purdy in my lineups against this defense.
Centralized target tree yet again it appears for Iowa State as Xavier Hutchinson had 7-88-0 on a team-high eight targets. He’ll be rejoined in the starting lineup with starting tight end Charlie Kolar as Matt Campbell announced this week he’ll be at full health for this Top 10 showdown. Tarique Milton and Joe Scates will join these two in the starting lineup with Sean Shaw already ruled out.
Of note to both passing games, 17 MPH winds expected on Saturday in Ames.