Virginia vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: WF -1.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: WF 28.5 – UVA 27
Weather: 73 degrees / 5% rain / 9 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Fields ($8,300) Steep price to pay, but I think it’s worth it given what we’ve seen in the last 13 games from a Virginia WR1. Last year we had the overall WR2 in college fantasy in Malik Washington. Now, it’s Malachi Fields’ turn after a productive 2023 season with 100 targets. Fields is off to a strong start with 100 yards receiving in the opener and no other wideout on the team making much of an impact.
Fade – WR Trell Harris ($6,100) The Kent State transfer had a solid Week 1, converting on both of his targets for 38 yards and a touchdown. The UVA beat writer has been consistent that Harris is also a darkhorse among UVA receivers to have a good statistical year. The price is just a bit much here for someone that played just 46% of the offensive snaps. $4,100 we might consider.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Tyree ($3,900) Instead of Harris, if we’re looking at a UVA receiver not named Malachi Fields, we’ll take our shot with Tyree. It was a poor debut for the Notre Dame transfer who was shut out on three targets and was recorded as having three drops – ouch. All offseason, though, the quotes from coaches suggested they brought in Tyree to fill that Malik Washington role from last year in the slot. He’s the better investment at this price.
Pivot Play – QB Anthony Colandrea ($7,300) I’m actually excited to watch this game, and Colandrea is a big part of why. The sophomore quarterback scored 30+ fantasy points in a blowout win over Richmond where he tossed nearly 300+ yards but was heavily utilized on the ground with 11 totes and another score. That is now seven of his last eight starters where Colandrea has scored at least 20 fantasy points. I like him as a cheaper option to pair with a Jalen Milroe.
Best of the Rest – RB Kobe Pace ($5,200) The talk in the offseason was that coaches were preparing Pace for a “workhorse” like role in 2024. They spread the carries around against Richmond, but Pace was productive with 93 yards and a TD on 11 attempts. Wake Forest allowed the most rushing yards in Week 1 of any ACC team that faced an FCS opponent (185).
Injury Notes – n/a
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – RB Demond Claiborne ($4,900) Just one of the many RBs on the slate that is underpriced. The history of Wake Forest running backs isn’t great under Dave Clawson. This is usually a pass-happy offense and there’s normally a committee in the backfield. We’ll you’re not going to be pass-happy with Hank Bachmeier as your QB. Claiborne is Wake’s best player on offense and showed it last week hitting over 100 rushing yards.
Fade – QB Hank Bachmeier ($5,700) Bachmeier will get the start over Michael Kern after his performance last week. That’s not to say this competition is completely over and a slow start could mean a switch to Kern mid-game. A quick hook would sink any Bachmeier lineup, and what is the realistic ceiling for a player of his caliber? Not worth it. The UVA pass defense did look improved a week ago, allowing just 110 yards to Richmond.
Bargain Bin – WR Deuce Alexander ($3,600) Clawson seemingly always finds these diamonds in the rough wide receivers and turns them into fantasy studs. Is Deuce Alexander next in line? The redshirt freshman led all Wake receivers with eight targets in Week 1, finishing with 69 yards and a score on five catches. Alexander does only come on the field, though, when Wake goes to 4-wide sets as he shares the slot with Taylor Morin.
Pivot Play – WR Donavon Greene ($4,100) The oft-injured junior receiver had a great moment in Week 1 scoring a long touchdown after missing the better part of the last two seasons due to injury. Greene appears to have rotated in the starting lineup with Walker Merrill on the outside but was the more effective option of the two.
Best of the Rest – WR Taylor Morin ($5,500) The wily veteran was solid in the opener with 100 yards receiving, converting all six of his targets. Bachmeier seems to favor slot receivers with his limited arm strength, which dates to his Boise State days, so Morin could be in for a good year. WR Horatio Fields ($4,100) was targeted five times in the opener and ran the most routes of any Wake receiver. While the targets were distributed evenly amongst five different wideouts, the good news is that Wake rarely throws to running backs or tight ends in this system. Most of the receptions will be made by the receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Florida vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Bama -30.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Bama 47 – USF 16.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 1% rain / 13 mph winds
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Sean Atkins ($4,800) Week 1 wasn’t the expected outcome for Atkins owners in CFF, posting just four receptions on six targets, but the $4.8k salary for a former 1,000-yard receiver and top 10 fantasy wideout is disrespectful. Assuming USF will be chucking Saturday as a 30-point dog, Atkins hopefully sees double-digit targets.
Fade – RB Nay’Quan Wright ($4,500) South Florida’s RB1 last season has seemingly already fallen to RB2 on the depth chart after one week with veteran Kelly Joiner Jr. getting the bulk of the carries. That also doesn’t include Bowling Green transfer Ta’Ron Keith who was also more effective in Week 1, averaging nearly six yards a carry. We’d stay away from all USF running backs this week, but Wright in particular.
Bargain Bin – WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen ($4,300) The Purdue transfer gives USF some length on the outside at 6-foot-2 and was tied for the team lead with Atkins in targets last week. Surprisingly, even in a 45-point blowout, USF really didn’t rotate much at all at receiver. Atkins, Yaseen and WR Michael Brown Stephens ($4,600) dominated the snap counts.
Pivot Play – QB Byrum Brown ($5,200) I’m going to have a few lineups with Brown in them at this price. Bad matchup, obviously, but this was arguably the best CFF quarterback in college football last season not named Jayden Daniels. In fact, Brown was the only QB other than Daniels last season to have 3,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards in a season. Brown also saw this Alabama defense a year ago when the two teams met so there shouldn’t be any shock factor.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Not realistically interested in anyone on the USF side outside of Brown and Atkins.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($9,500) Easy choice here. Milroe is the highest projected player at any position this week for us at the CFFSite. Plenty of cost-effective options at running back and SuperFlex to make spending up for Milroe an easy choice this slate.
Fade – WR Kobe Prentice ($6,400) Prentice could still wind up being semi-productive as he was a week ago, but despite being listed as a starter on the depth chart, he was a backup to prized freshman Ryan Williams and was still playing in garbage time in the second half. Not worth $6.4k.
Bargain Bin – WR Ryan Williams ($4,500) DraftKings watched Week 1, correct? Why is Williams the lowest priced Alabama starting receiver by a wide margin? Both receiving touchdowns came on just two targets, so some regression is clearly expected here, but why not at $4.5k?
Pivot Play – WR Germie Bernard ($6,000) Perhaps we overrated Bernard in the offseason, or perhaps this was just a matter of circumstance in a blowout over Western Kentucky. Not jumping ship just yet on Germie Bernard being Alabama’s WR1 just yet, and now we’ll see an ownership decline because of his Week 1 output. Bernard still ran the most routes of any Alabama wideout in the opener.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Pretty much what was expected out of RB Justice Haynes ($7,700) and RB Jamarion Miller ($7,300) in the opener, with a 50-50 split in carries, combining for 156 yards and two scores. Those rushing attempts will likely double for each player this week. WR Kendrick Law ($5,000) split time with Bernard in the slot, catching one pass on two targets and finding the end-zone. I’d limit my Alabama exposure to just one receiver I think as this offense will be primarily centered around the run game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia Southern vs. Nevada
Point-Spread: GSU -1.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: GSU 30 – Nev 28.5
Weather: 91 degrees / 1% rain / 19 mph winds
Georgia Southern:
Top Play(s) – RB Jalen White ($4,800) Somehow Georgia Southern rolled up 45 points last week and still lost. Happens when you face the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty. JC French will get a lot of attention from DFS players on the slate, but assuming the defense is marginally improved this week, Georgia Southern won’t be forced to throw 49 times like they did vs. Boise. Coaches commented in the offseason about riding Jalen White this season, and we’ll see more evidence of that this week. White averaged just 2.9 YPC last week and still found the end-zone three times.
Fade – RB OJ Arnold ($4,600) White is the bell-cow when healthy, and there isn’t a reason $200 separates the two players. White put on 20 pounds this offseason in preparation for a 200+ carry season.
Bargain Bin – WR LV Bunkley Shelton ($4,100) The one-time Arizona State and Oklahoma transfer is now at his third school and starting, playing over 67% of the snaps in Week 1. LVBS had a relatively quiet day with three receptions on four targets, but also ran the second most routes on the team behind Derwin Burgess.
Pivot Play – WR Derwin Burgess Jr. ($5,100) Unsurprisingly, Burgess led all Georgia Southern receivers in every category vs. Boise State with nine targets, 93 receiving yards and a team high in routes run. Targets were a bit more spread out, though, with 11 different players being targeted at least twice.
Best of the Rest – QB JC French ($6,500) Funny to think French was in a three-way QB battle in the fall and seemingly on the verge of losing the starting job the week before the season started. Now, he’s headed into this slate as one of the popular choices at QB or SuperFlex with a 26-point projection at just $6.5k. I don’t foresee 49 passing attempts again, unless the run defense is horrid again, but we also love the utilization of his legs with 11 carries vs. Boise. WRs Dalen Cobb ($4,900) and Josh Dallas ($4,500) both played over 50% of the team’s offensive snaps with a combined 15 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nevada:
Top Play(s) – RB Savion Red ($4,800) We’re not going to see a 20-carry per game guy at Nevada in 2024, but the Texas transfer has been very good through two games, averaging over seven yards per carry and the only Nevada running back with 10+ attempts in both contests. Do we need to remind you what Boise State did to this Georgia Southern run defense a week ago?
Fade – RB Sean Dollars ($5,400) This tends to happen a lot in college football. New head coach, new staff, no allegiance to players that were inherited. Dollars seems to be out of rotation, falling behind several incoming transfers. Despite starting last week, Dollars had just four rushing attempts.
Bargain Bin – TE Jace Henry ($3,600) The Wolfpack TE1 has played 76% of the team’s offensive snaps this season and caught a touchdown against both SMU and Troy. Through two games, just seven players have received a target in the passing game, so Nevada isn’t rotating much.
Pivot Play – QB Brendon Lewis ($6,000) Lewis has been serviceable throwing the football through two games, completing 66% of his throws with two touchdowns in each of the first two weeks with zero interceptions. If we can get that each week, or something close to that, Lewis will be in the pool of consideration. We haven’t even mentioned the 26 combined rushing attempts either.
Best of the Rest – RB Pat Garwo ($4,300) After missing Week 1, the Boston College transfer rumbled in for two touchdowns in the win over Troy, getting a few more red-zone carries than Savion Red. WR Cortez Braham ($4,500) and WR Jaden Smith ($4,400) simply haven’t come off the field in the first two games with 58% of the team’s target share and have played over 92% of the offensive snaps. Definitely wouldn’t stack both together in a lineup, but both are definite options.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas vs. Illinois
Point-Spread: KU -4.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: KU 31 – Illini 26.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($7,900) Dating back to last season, Neal has now scored 20 or more fantasy points in 10 of the last 14 games played. That consistency is unmatched as no other running back in college football has had more 20-point performances in that span.
Fade – TE position. Maybe it was a byproduct of the game script against Lindenwood where Kansas only attempts 19 passes but starting tight ends Jared Casey and Trevor Kardell were still on the field a bunch and collected just one target between them. Doesn’t appear we have a Mason Fairchild-like player on the Jayhawks roster this season.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone below $5k.
Pivot Play – QB Jalon Daniels ($8,300) A 17-point projection at $8.3k is not that appealing for Daniels who was rusty in his return to the field, completing just 9-of-15 passes for 148 yards with a touchdown and interception. KU was never going to put Daniels in harms way against Lindenwood with the chance of risking a back flare up that sidelined him much of last year, but notable to me that Daniels didn’t have a single rushing attempt. Part of the plan moving forward to keep QB1 on the field?
Best of the Rest – WRs. Luke Grimm was the star of Week 1 with 111 yards and a touchdown on seven targets – more than double the next closest Kansas receiver. But we know how this KU offense operates with three starting receivers along with Lawrence Arnold and Quentin Skinner. Even distribution of targets each of the last two years and we’re not expecting 2024 to be any different. RB Daniel Hishaw ($5,600) rushed for a touchdown in the opener and will get his steady diet of 7-10 carries each week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Kaden Feagin ($4,900) I didn’t see why Feagin didn’t start last week against Eastern Illinois, but must’ve been only the first drive or two, because the 250-pound sophomore finished with 108 yards and a score on 16 carries. Don’t think there’s anything to read into that because Bret Bielema has been very complimentary of his RB1, calling him pound for pound the most explosive player on the team. That’s a lot of explosiveness at 250 lbs.
Fade – WR Malik Elzy ($4,700) Elzy caught a touchdown in the opener on three targets but is WR4 in the Illini receiver room. There was thought that he’d slide inside in the slot with Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin on the boundary, but Elzy played 100% of his limited snaps outside.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner Arkin ($3,500) Illinois primarily utilizes their tight ends as run blockers, so the volume of targets will be low. But Arkin did find the end-zone with his lone target vs. EIU and was on the field a lot last week, garnering 71% of the offensive snaps with the most routes run of any player on the Illini. I am unfamiliar with WR Collin Dixon ($3,000) to be completely honest, but he looks to have seen the most playing time in the slot last week.
Pivot Play – QB Luke Altmyer ($7,200) We think of the run game when we think of Bret Bielema and the Illini, but they also get solid QB play with former Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer who has scored at least 20 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 starters. Reading game previews on both sides, both team writers are expecting a high scoring affair and Altmyer’s price is very manageable. Just don’t have Altmyer and Feagin in the same lineup – one or the other.
Best of the Rest – WR Pat Bryant ($5,500) Didn’t know exactly what to expect this season from Bryant as the projected WR1 because he doesn’t play the same position that Isaiah Williams did in the slot the previous two years. Volume was average with just five targets, but found the end-zone twice vs. EIU. UTSA transfer WR Zakhari Franklin ($5,000) ran the third most routes behind Arkin and Bryant and was also targeted five times. Would heavily favor Bryant over Franklin if choosing an Illini receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee vs. NC State
Point-Spread: UT -10
O/U Total: 60
Implied Score: UT 35 – NC St 25
Weather: 76 degrees / 5% rain / 8 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Dylan Sampson ($5,200) So many running backs with attainable salaries on the slate. Sampson is the best of the mid-tier options, picking up where he left off last year with three rushing TDs in the opener. On paper, this is a great matchup against an NC State defense still adjusting to life without their All-American linebacker from a year ago. The Wolfpack allowed over six yards per carry in Week 1 to Western Carolina.
Fade – n/a. There is not a single player on the Tennessee offense that is overpriced on DK. Everyone is in play.
Bargain Bin – WR Bru McCoy ($3,800) Might we finally be seeing the 10th-year breakout from Bru McCoy? The senior receiver flashed like the 5-star he was coming out of high school, finishing with 6-89-0 on seven targets which was good for second on the team. Too cheap for a starting receiver on such a potent offense like Tennessee.
Pivot Play – WR Squirrel White ($5,700) Really thought there was a path this season where Squirrel White could finish as a top five wide receiver in fantasy football. Doesn’t seem likely after Week 1 with just 22 yards on two targets. If there is hope, it’s that White ran the second most routes of any wideout for the Vols. And reading some content from Tennessee beat writers this week, even they don’t know who will be the go-to target on a given week. White’s salary will mean he’s severely under owned.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Brazzell ($5,500) The Tulane transfer was an instant impact player from the jump, leading the Vols in both targets (8) and routes run in Week 1. That wasn’t a total surprise. WR Dont’e Thornton ($3,600) going for 100+ yards and two touchdowns blew everyone’s minds after how much of a colossal bust he was a year ago. You wonder if that was a flash in the pan performance, though, as Thornton didn’t start and only played 20% of the offensive snaps. QB Nico Iamaleava ($8,500) will be a candidate every week in CFB DFS to start as one of the best QBs in the country. NC State allowed 241 yards and two touchdowns through the air to WCU last Thursday.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State:
Top Play(s) – WR KC Concepcion ($7,700) Another player that picked up exactly where he left off a year ago as the sophomore receiver went for 121 yards and three touchdowns on nine receptions. His 14 targets were good for 35% of the team’s target share. I think the only difference, so far, between this year and last is Concepcion was not utilized at all in the run game where he had just a single carry. Lessens his value slightly if that continues, but this is still one of the best WRs in the country.
Fade – RB Jordan Waters ($6,100) Don’t call this a complete fade, but how about just lessen your exposure if entering in multi-entry GPPs. Here’s the good – Waters is the clear RB1 with 20 carries in Week 1. No other running back had more than three attempts. The bad – Tennessee’s strength on defense is in the front seven where the D-line goes two deep at every spot. The offensive line for NC State graded out 78th in PFF’s run blocking statistics after one week. I think this will need to be a passing game for NC State. But we can’t totally discount Waters because of the likely volume he’ll get.
Bargain Bin – TE Justin Joly ($3,800) Joly should be at least $1k more as he’s everything you want in a fantasy tight end. 5-75-0 on six targets against Western Carolina, running the second most routes of any NC State player, and spent only 57% of his snaps playing in-line. Meaning he’s lining up in the slot or out wide the rest of the time.
Pivot Play – WR Noah Rogers ($4,800) The Ohio State transfer didn’t have the impact some expected after he was the talk of fall camp for NC State, catching just three passes on four targets with only 35% snaps played. Sounds like Rogers did come out of the game for a brief portion with a stinger that limited his playing time. Seems to be good to go for Saturday and we’d be surprised if he’s still not the WR2 behind Concepcion. NC State will have to throw as a double-digit underdog.
Best of the Rest – QB Grayson McCall ($7,700) High-level numbers looked better than the actual performance where McCall threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns, but did toss an interception and was sacked three times. Maybe it changes against Tennessee, but McCall also didn’t run much in Week 1, which is something that made him so valuable at Coastal. WR DJ Collins ($5,000) and Wesley Grimes ($4,000) had nearly identical numbers, playing around 50% of the offensive snaps with a combined eight targets. I’m more interested in KCC, Rogers and Joly.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -6.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Neb 31.5 – Col 25
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Travis Hunter ($9,200) You can dislike Colorado but must marvel at the best overall player in college football in Travis Hunter. The one-handed touchdown reception he had around a defender was just absurd. And there was no indication of lessening Hunter’s reps at receiver to preserve his stamina on the defensive side of the ball. Hunter ran the most routes of any Colorado receiver in the game.
Fade – RBs. This one probably goes without saying. Colorado still can’t run the football, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry against North Dakota State. The Buffs will be lucky to break that mark against a far superior defense in Nebraska on the road. It was notable in the second half that Dallan Hayden was the preferred option over Charlie Offerdahl if you’re considering roster one – which you should not.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone below $5.5k.
Pivot Play – WR LaJohntay Wester ($5,600) Hunter and Horn Jr. will get much of the attention, but Wester was solid in his Buffs debut with 5-58-0 on seven targets while also running the same number of routes as Hunter.
Best of the Rest – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($7,100) Horn Jr. gave me the middle finger for betting his prop under at 66.5 receiving yards as I think he surpassed that in the first quarter of play last week. Horn wound up as the leading target-getter (9), finishing with 198 yards and a score. Colorado does not rotate at receiver practically at all. Combine that with not being able to run the football and you can stack 2-3 Colorado receivers into the same lineup. WR Will Sheppard ($5,500) was a relative disappointment with just 23 receiving yards on three targets. Looks like it’ll take some time to jive with the new squad. QB Shedeur Sanders ($10,200) is probably too pricy for this slate as a non-runner and should only be considered in a game stack.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Neyor ($5,000) Seems like forever ago that Neyor was dominating Mountain West defenses back at Wyoming many moons ago. After a winding path, Neyor is healthy and starting at Nebraska, and looking good doing it, finishing last week with 6-121-1 on a team-high eight targets. Colorado’s defense did not look any/much improved from last year against North Dakota State.
Fade – RB Gabe Ervin Jr. ($5,300) Call me skeptical that Ervin can maintain this pace as the highest scoring Nebraska running back. Both of his touchdowns came in the second and third quarters when the Huskers already had a big lead. Ervin also didn’t see a carry in the first quarter which makes me think he is not the 1st or 2nd choice in the rotation.
Bargain Bin – RB Dante Dowdell ($3,500) The Oregon transfer didn’t get the first carry of the game, but was one of the most productive, averaging over six yards per carry with a touchdown. With everyone healthy, it seems apparent this could be a four-man rotation at running back. So, we’ll side with the cheapest, and in my opinion, the most talented option of the foursome.
Pivot Play – WR Jahmal Banks ($7,200) The price difference will have everyone rostering Neyor over Banks. And we can’t say that’s a bad decision at all after what transpired vs. UTEP. But the facts of the matter are that Banks was on the field just as much as Neyor, though had about half of the targets. Banks is a proven enough player to where roles could be flipped this week.
Best of the Rest – QB Dylan Raiola ($8,000) So, that guy’s just a freshman huh? 68% completion rate for 238 yards and two touchdowns. Colorado was also leaky in the secondary in Week 1, allowing 292 passing yards and a 77% completion rate to a QB on a team that tends to be primarily run-based. Biggest issue with rostering Raiola is he does not run….at all. TE Thomas Fidone ($4,200) had a quiet Week 1 for his standards but still played 56% of the offensive snaps and ran the third most routes on the team. Nebraska still seems to be figuring out who the WR3 is beyond Neyor and Banks. WR Janiran Bonner ($4,800) is the top option as it stands now.
Injury Notes – n/a
Western Michigan vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -38
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: OSU 46 – WMU 8
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Western Michigan:
We’ve got an extended 9-game night slate and attempting to accomplish the rare feat of composing a late-night writeup so we’re bypassing the Broncos here. RB Jalen Buckley ($5,000) will be good to us once MACtion hits, and WR1 Kenneth Womack ($4,800) had a cast on last week vs. Wisconsin.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Howard ($9,000) What Howard did against Akron last week is what will be required of him every game – be accurate with the football, don’t turn the football over, and distribute to your wealth of playmakers. Three touchdowns, whether via pass or run, will likely be the floor every week, especially in the non-con.
Fade – RBs. Assuming this week is an exact replica of last week’s blowout over a MAC squad, then we’re going to see the split workload between Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Just be forewarned – it’s probably going to be like this until October with the Buckeyes’ soft schedule. Both Henderson and Judkins are likely to find paydirt again this week but won’t be enough to hit value. Even RB James Peoples is priced up to a point we can’t consider him either.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any OSU player sub-$5k.
Pivot Play – WR Carnell Tate ($5,800) Tate didn’t get any headlines but was very productive in the opening week with 4-58-1 on five targets. Tate ran the most routes of any Ohio State receiver and his 85% of offensive snaps played was the highest mark on the team. He’ll be under owned with players focused on Smith or Egbuka.
Best of the Rest – WR Jeremiah Smith ($7,200) or WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,800) Notice we didn’t say Smith and Egbuka. This isn’t the matchup, nor is it the same offense as year’s past to stack the Ohio State receivers. Maybe in crucial games down the stretch potentially, but not a MAC opponent. Ohio State surprisingly didn’t rotate as much as I would think either last week against Akron, so any of the OSU top three receivers are a good add to your lineup. Just don’t have more than one.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -28
O/U Total: 49
Implied Score: OU 38.5 – Hou 10.5
Weather: 77 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – WR Mekhi Mews ($3,000) We can’t suggest anyone on this Houston offense with good conscience after that showing last weekend against UNLV. Mews, a Georgia transfer gets the nod here given his min priced salary and that he was tied for the team lead in targets last Saturday. Mews’ 73% snaps played was also the most among all Houston receivers.
Fade – QBs. Donovan Smith was abysmal, throwing for just 135 yards and two interceptions, while also providing nothing on the ground. There’s a chance we will see both quarterbacks this week with Zeon Chriss getting in on the action.
Bargain Bin – WR Maliq Carr ($3,400) Although Carr was not listed as a starter on the depth chart, he is Houston’s best pass-catching tight end. Carr was tied for the team lead in targets (5) and held a 25-16 advantage in routes run over fellow tight end Jayden York.
Pivot Play – RB Parker Jenkins ($5,000) Fritz admitted this week that Parker Jenkins should have gotten the ball more against UNLV but the game got away from them. Unfortunately, the offensive line ahead of Jenkins was abused by a Mountain West foe, as the Cougars averaged just 1.5 YPC as a team. Overall, Pro Football Focus ranked Houston 97th in run blocking grades after one week.
Best of the Rest – WR Joseph Manjack IV ($5,000) Guys, we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel here to fill space. Manjack also had five targets but averaged an amazing 2.3 yards per reception. He did find the end-zone at least. WR Stephon Johnson ($4,500), a former Oklahoma State transfer, was second among Houston receivers in snaps played and routes run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Deion Burks ($7,500) Even when Nic Anderson is back in the lineup, Deion Burks is the alpha on this OU offense, as shown by his three touchdowns in Week 1. Burks is running in the slot, but I hope they push the ball a bit more downfield with him, as he averaged just six yards per catch with a 8.4 aDOT. Possibly no Nic Anderson, and now the injury to Jalil Farooq, boosts all the healthy OU wideouts.
Fade – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($7,200) How concerned should we be with the six carries Sawchuk had against Temple last Friday? The 2.5 yards per carry doesn’t look great on the surface and the emergence of a 5-star freshman (see below) could really make things muddy here in the OU backfield. This slate is deep enough at RB to where I personally want to wait a week to see if Sawchuk rebounds or if this will be a committee moving forward.
Bargain Bin – RB Taylor Tatum ($3,200) Tatum was easily the best running back on the OU roster last week against Temple, rushing for 69 yards on just five carries with 27 yards after contact. He was the No. 1 running back in the 247-recruiting class for a reason. Assuming OU jumps out to another big lead Saturday, Tatum isn’t preserving his redshirt this year and will get run. And I think he gets run even when this game is competitive.
Pivot Play – WR Brenen Thompson ($5,200) Thompson’s value is dependent on if Nic Anderson plays or not. Thompson was tied for second in targets (6) vs. Temple and ran the fourth most routes. Despite the blowout, OU didn’t really rotate their receivers until the second half – mostly out of necessity because of the injuries to the room.
Best of the Rest – QB Jackson Arnold ($9,800) Efficient debut for Arnold with four touchdown passes, but I think you’re seeing the effects of a depleted WR room as the sophomore QB threw for just 141 yards. Arnold is a good play with a 27-point projection, but the issue is you have a cheaper option in Jalen Milroe with more upside. And you’re probably not playing two high-priced QBs on the slate. TE Bauer Sharp ($3,900) might be OU’s second-best pass-catcher with Anderson out of the lineup, as he was tied for second with six targets and a TD. WR JJ Hester ($3,400) was goose-egged on the stat sheet but played a ton. You wonder if someone like WR Jaquaize Pettaway ($3,700) sees more time with Hester being ineffective.
Injury Notes – WR Nic Anderson ($6,000) Brent Venables said they’re hopeful Anderson can be back in the lineup this week and mentioned he “will be back sooner rather than later.” As a four-touchdown favorite, it’s unlikely OU risks a full workload for Anderson if he should be out there.
Appalachian State vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -17
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: Clem 35 – App St 18
Weather: 75 degrees / 5% rain / 7 mph winds
Appalachian State:
Top Play(s) – WR Kaedin Robinson ($5,100) Far and away Appalachian State’s best offensive player, finishing last week with 103 yards and eight receptions on 10 targets. That would now mark four-straight games in which Robinson has had at least 10 targets as he’s been super productive since moving into the slot. While App State might get overmatched here, Robinson should be considered as a stand-alone option because of the volume he’s getting.
Fade – RBs. Messy. The Mountaineers rushed for 179 yards against E. Tennessee State last week while averaging just under six yards a carry, but 47 of those yards came from a wide receiver. App State will rotate between Kanye Roberts, Anderson Castle and possibly Maquel Haywood for much of the year until someone separates. If hell bound on choosing one, Roberts is the most explosive of the bunch and played almost double the offensive snaps that Castle did in Week 1.
Bargain Bin – TE Eli Wilson ($3,800) 235 of the 326 passing yards went to three players, one of which being Wilson who was targeted four times with a touchdown. WR3 Makai Jackson ($3,800) was targeted six times, ran the third most routes and had a 47-yard run.
Pivot Play – QB Joey Aguilar ($6,600) Aguilar is an option if you’re one of those max entry players that has 50+ lineups and you want to cover all your bases. Definitely not for cash games or single entry. That said, Aguilar was one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the country a season ago, scoring 30 or more fantasy points eight times. Maybe Dabo Swinney should have added him via the portal to help the Clemson passing game. Oh wait…
Best of the Rest – WR Christan Horn ($4,800) If the Clemson defense keens in on stopping Robinson, Horn is the likely beneficiary as the WR2, running the most routes of any App State receiver last week. Also had a productive day with 89 yards and a touchdown on six targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($5,800) Have to imagine that Mafah is going to be in most lineups regardless of the format. As long as he’s good physically, Mafah will get 20+ touches a game. Three targets against Georgia – albeit for negative yards – is also a positive note given that wasn’t his role last year.
Fade – WR Adam Randall ($3,500) Insert that Vince Carter GIF – “It’s Over.” Once I saw Dabo Swinney yelling at Randall *again*, it’s time to end the charade. Five routes run and just one target against Georgia, and the notion coming out of Week 1 is that it’s time for the kids to play…aka Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,100) This will be a constant if DK continues to underprice Briningstool all year. Tied for third in targets (4) in Week 1, including a sick one-handed grab which was a must watch on replay, and second in snaps played behind only Cade Klubnik.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,500) I didn’t think Klubnik played terribly against Georgia, he was just hurt by drops on that first series and the lack of weapons Clemson has at wide receiver. Not to mention playing Georgia. Saturday should be competitive enough for Klubnik to play the entirety of the game and keep scoring against a good App State offense. If rostering Klubnik, you should not have Mafah in your lineups stacked together.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($5,700) I think it was well-established Week 1 who the No. 1 receiver is for the Tigers with Williams catching six passes on a team-high seven targets. Promising to see that they pushed the ball downfield with the former slot receiver as well, averaging 12.7 YPC and a 10.9 aDOT. WR Tyler Brown ($4,300) was third in routes run and targets (5), while running 100% of his snaps in the slot. If looking for a longshot play at receiver beyond the top two, WR Cole Turner ($3,400) played 54% of the offensive snaps which was second behind Williams.
Injury Notes – n/a
Follow Mike Bainbridge on X: @MBainbridgeCFF
