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Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OK St -7.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: OK St 35 – Ark 27.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Taylen Green ($7,500) Arkansas played in the most lopsided game of Week 1, so we cannot rush to many/any judgements under new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. Green did look good though against an overmatched opponent, accounting for 300 total yards of offense and four touchdowns in the first two quarters. That’s also without his top option at receiver. Green will be featured in several of my lineups with his ability to scamper in the ground game.
Fade – WR Isaiah Sategna ($5,200) We’ll find out the true rotations for the wide receivers on Saturday in a competitive game. Sategna got some positive pub all through the offseason and was a listed starter in the slot but was targeted just a single time and gave way to last year’s boundary starter WR Isaac TeSlaa ($5,000) who was far more productive during his time on the field. OC Bobby Petrino said he wanted to find ways to utilize the 6-foot-3 receiver in the slot. Seems like that’s coming at the expense of Sategna.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Hasz ($3,300) Hasz was a perfect 3-of-3 on targets directed his way for 42 yards in his return from injury. Too cheap a price for a top 10 tight end in the country.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,200) That was the JQJ we expected last year at Utah. Even with battling an ankle injury in fall camp, the same one that hampered him a year ago, Jackson averaged 12.6 YPC on eight attempts with two touchdowns in the victory. Oklahoma State faced a similar offense to Arkansas last week and allowed close to 4.5 yards per carry for the game.
Best of the Rest – WR Tyrone Broden ($5,400) The former Bowling Green transfer led the team in targets (7) and tied for the team lead in routes run. Not surprising that his 17.5 aDOT led the team as Arkansas’ big-play threat on offense. WR Jordan Anthony ($4,000) is an option only if Andrew Armstrong is out. If Armstrong is in uniform, we’re only looking at Broden and Hasz at pass-catching options for the Razorbacks. Anthony was effective as a starter with three catches on five targets.
Injury Notes – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,400) Armstrong posted a photo on social media of a cartoon character trapped in ice and “coming back to life.” Does that mean he makes his debut on the field? TBD.
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($9,600) The 3.9 YPC average against South Dakota State is a bit concerning considering Oklahoma State does bring back all five starters on the OL. What’s not concerning is the production – 104 yards and two scores – along with the rushing volume with 27 attempts. No other RB had more than five carries. Same story different year in the Oklahoma State backfield.
Fade – Backups. Barring injury, this is going to be the same fade suggestion for Oklahoma State every time they’re on the slate. There was minimal rotation with the backups despite playing an overmatched FCS opponent. There will be less rotation against an SEC defense.
Bargain Bin – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($4,800) Will be one of the more sought after, cost-saving options at the WR position this week. I thought initially the target share would be centered around two options. I did not realize one of those two would be Stribling who went for 6-83-0 on eight targets. All three Oklahoma State receivers are in play.
Pivot Play – QB Alan Bowman ($8,400) The salary is a bit much here for a quarterback that doesn’t run, but we like the game total where OSU is expected to score close to five touchdowns. High floor / low ceiling play with Bowman.
Best of the Rest – WR Brennan Presley ($7,000) and / or Rashod Owens ($5,400) Both are in play, both as a stacking together, with Stribling, or as solo plays. All cards are on the table here because of the centralized target share. The trio accounted for 22 of the 32 targets with the next closest player being Ollie Gordon.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: Tex -7.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: Tex 25 – UM 17.5
Weather: 56 degrees / 14% rain / 14 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – Jaydon Blue ($6,800) There really is no great DFS play in this matchup in a game that’s likely to be more fun to watch as a viewer. Blue gets top billing here with a relatively strong projection and median salary as the Longhorns will likely increase his reps this week in a game where the RB1 is needed. That wasn’t the case last week, resulting in just a handful of touches. The only issue is trying to gain traction vs. the best defensive tackle pairing in the country.
Fade – WR Silas Bolden ($5,800) Bolden did find the end-zone against Colorado State last week…. with Arch Manning throwing him the football. The Oregon State transfer was a summer enrollee, so must believe there is an acclimation period still happening here. Ran the fifth most routes among Texas receivers last week.
Bargain Bin – TE Gunnar Helm ($4,000) Two things are clear coming out of the Colorado State game regarding the tight end position. (1) Helm is way ahead of Amari NiBlack in the pecking order, running the most routes of any player on the Texas team last week. (2) The Longhorns do not have Ja’Tavion Sanders this season. Helm did play a ton, though, and was targeted three times.
Pivot Play – WR Matthew Golden ($5,000) The Houston transfer ran the second most routes of any Texas receiver last week, targeted four times with two touchdowns. Michigan does have Will Johnson on one side of the field who will likely follow around WR Isaiah Bond ($6,800) at all times. The Wolverines have some question marks on the other side of the field, as the CB2 allowed six receptions on eight targets last week to Fresno State’s WR2. I like the usage of Golden last week and the matchup as an under-the-radar play.
Best of the Rest – QB Quinn Ewers ($9,000) I had a friend text me his thoughts after the Texas game last week. “Texas wins the national championship if…Michigan injures Quinn Ewers.” That speaks to how good Arch Manning looked in garbage time. We cannot advocate Ewers with this bloated salary against a top three defense in college football. WR Johntay Cook ($4,600) ran the third most routes among receivers last week with three targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – TE Colston Loveland ($6,700) If Michigan can just get average quarterback play this season, Loveland is going to have a Brock Bowers-like impact in 2024. Nine targets in the opener – four more than any other Michigan pass-catcher – with 87 yards and a touchdown.
Fade – QBs. It’ll be interesting to see how the QB rotation fares this week against a far more formidable opponent. Alex Orji played just nine snaps against Fresno State to the surprise of some, but if Davis Warren struggles to throw against this Texas defense, it wouldn’t surprise us to see Michigan revert to Orji and his legs to change things up.
Bargain Bin – WR Kendrick Bell ($3,900) Bell is the only realistic sub-$5k option on the Wolverines this week, playing nearly 50% of the offensive snaps against Fresno State. The younger brother of Ronnie Bell has exceptional deep speed to where he’s capable of one long touchdown at some point. Low volume with just two targets last week so there’s high bust factor if considering Bell.
Pivot Play – RB Kalel Mullings ($7,400) Mullings looked like the better running back over RB Donovan Edwards ($8,000) last week with 92 yards on 15 carries. The more concerning aspect is that the run blocking for the Wolverines struggled against a small Fresno State defensive front, allowing plenty of interior pressure. This will still be a hot hand situation, and big game Donovan Edwards (see Washington and Ohio State) has shown up numerous times over the year, but Mullings has the slight edge headed into Week 2 as the preferred option.
Best of the Rest – WR Semaj Morgan ($6,400) and WR Tyler Morris ($6,400) Didn’t see a lot of rotation among the Michigan receivers with just four players seeing considerable playing time. While Morgan was the hot name in camp, it was Morris who played 87% of the offensive snaps last week, most on the entire team, and five targets. Michigan will obviously have to throw Saturday night, so rostering one of these two isn’t a terrible strategy.
Injury Notes – n/a
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -2.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Cin 32.5 – Pitt 30
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($5,900) News came out last week that projected RB1 Rodney Hammond was deemed ineligible for the 2024 season. Blessing in disguise perhaps for the Pitt offense as Western Carolina transfer Desmond Reid was the best player on the field last weekend with over 150 total yards of offense and a special team’s touchdown. Reid wasn’t utilized much in the passing game either, which was his bread-and-butter last season.
Fade – WR Daejon Reynolds ($4,000) A starter a season ago, Reynolds barely played against Kent State and did not record a single target. Pitt added a host of Western Carolina transfers in the offseason to pair with new offensive coordinator Kade Bell, and it seems some of the Pitt holdovers like Reynolds have been squeezed from the rotation.
Bargain Bin – WR Censere Lee ($4,100) Crazy how a player with nine targets in Week 1 is only priced at $4.1k. Lee was a distant fourth in routes run behind Pitt’s starting trio of receivers, so buyer beware from that standpoint. Lee and fellow WCU transfer WR Raphael Williams Jr. ($4,500) combined for 2,000 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns the last two seasons. Both are off to great starts with their new team.
Pivot Play – WR Kenny Johnson ($4,400) Plenty of standouts on the Pitt offense last week, but the 6-foot-2 sophomore is the most impressive of the bunch. Ran fewer routes than Williams and WR Konata Mumpfield ($5,000) but converted on all seven of his targets for 107 yards and a score. We now live in a world where Pitt ran 80 plays and threw the ball 40+ times. Multiple Pitt receivers in a lineup is a feasible strategy.
Best of the Rest – QB Eli Holstein ($6,500) This is why coaches are paid the big bucks. Most thought Nate Yarnell would be the Week 1 starter. Nope. Alabama transfer Eli Holstein got the nod immediately and all he did was throw for 331 yards and three scores in the opener. Yes, we know, Kent State. But a lot to like with this offense from Week 1, and Holstein is cheap, relatively speaking. TE Gavin Bartholomew ($4,000) converted on all five of his targets and ran the third most routes.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendan Sorsby ($8,000) Lots of options to choose from here on the Cincinnati side. We’ll roll with the orchestrator in Sorsby who was exceptional in his debut after transferring from Indiana with 383 passing yards and two touchdowns, while adding another pair of scores on the ground. QB1 in this offense is consistently utilized on the ground over the years – Sorsby is plenty mobile – and he’s an extreme upgrade over last year’s starter Emory Jones.
Fade – WR Tyrin Smith ($4,500) Doesn’t seem that long ago when Smith was a 100+ target receiver at UTEP. Winding road the last few years has led Smith to Cincinnati where he played just 36% of snaps in Week 1 which was fifth most among wideouts. Might be a piece we roster down the road, but not in the immediate.
Bargain Bin – TE Joe Royer ($3,800) Big week for the Ohio State transfer, targeted six times for 89 yards vs. Towson. Royer was spoken highly of multiple times in the offseason by head coach Scott Satterfield and was praised previously by CJ Stroud during his time with the Buckeyes. Royer scored four touchdowns in one of Cincinnati’s fall scrimmages, so his Week 1 performance was not an aberration.
Pivot Play – RB Corey Kiner ($5,700) Disappointing start to Kiner’s senior campaign with just 46 yards on eight carries. It was clear, though, that Cincy wanted to get a look at the passing game with all the new components. And the carries were distributed amongst four different running backs. Kiner will be critical in important matchups like Saturday. The run game should be fine as the Bearcats bring back all five OL from last year.
Best of the Rest – WR Xzavier Henderson ($6,500) Henderson was a 100+ target receiver a year ago and is on pace to duplicate that after posting 7-101-1 on 11 targets in Week 1. Beyond Henderson and Royer, the pecking order among Cincinnati pass-catchers feels a bit jumbled to where we’ll let it sort out another week. FWIW, WR Jamoi Mayes ($5,100) was second among wideouts in routes run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State vs. Tulane
Point-Spread: KSU -9.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: KSU 28.5 – Tul 18
Weather: 74 degrees / 48% rain / 13 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($6,600) Kansas State players are priced down for some odd reason. Despite having to replace all five starters on the OL, it was a promising beginning for Giddens and the running game in Week 1, averaging nearly nine yards per carry. 15+ touches is a lock for on Saturday for one of the best running backs in the country at a modest price.
Fade – WR Keagan Johnson ($4,200) The former Iowa transfer did play 46% of the snaps last week but was not targeted a single time on the day. I’d be very weary of starting any KSU receiver outside of Jayce Brown.
Bargain Bin – TE Garrett Oakley ($3,800) We’re preaching some patience after a week with Oakley as he was shut out of the box score with just a single target. Oakley, who some expected to assume the Ben Sinnott role in the offense, did run the fourth most routes, though, which is a promising sign for future utilization.
Pivot Play – RB Dylan Edwards ($5,400) Edwards really isn’t a threat to steal carries from DJ Giddens, not at his size of 160 pounds soaking wet, but the sophomore back is one of the most explosive offensive players in the entire country. That was on display Week 1 with 43 yards and a score on the ground, along with a receiving TD as well. I’m expecting Kansas State to utilize Edwards like they did another undersized running back in Deuce Vaughn, just with less volume because of Giddens.
Best of the Rest – QB Avery Johnson ($7,500) A 27-point projection at just $7.5k? Sign me up with one of the best running quarterbacks in the country. Between 8-12 rushing attempts should be a lock. WR Jayce Brown ($4,800), the team’s leading receiver a year ago, led all Wildcats with seven targets in Week 1. No other receiver had more than two.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – WR Mario Williams ($5,400) This will probably be the only time in which Williams is listed as the top play and not Makhi Hughes. The USC transfer looks to be the far and away top WR option for the Wave this season, hitting 100+ yards against SE Louisiana with a team-high five targets and most routes run among receivers.
Fade – WR Bryce Bohanon ($4,400) The game was out of hand early, so Tulane rotated plenty, but Bohanon is not a starter, had just one target, and played only 18% of the offensive snaps on four routes run.
Bargain Bin – TE Alex Bauman ($3,500) Ho-hum day at the office for Bauman with two catches and a touchdown in Week 1. We expect Bauman to finish the year second or third on the team in targets as he was an underrated piece of the passing game in 2023 with 35 receptions and five scores.
Pivot Play – RB Makhi Hughes ($6,300) Hughes is priced to where you can probably still consider him, it’s just that the matchup isn’t the best. The sophomore running back averaged just 4.2 yards per carry against an inferior opponent last week which doesn’t give us a ton of confidence moving forward considering Tulane is replacing two All-Conference performers on the OL. Meanwhile, most of Kansas State’s front seven is back on defense.
Best of the Rest – QB Darian Mensah ($6,400) Likely won’t play Mensah this week but will be highly interested in watching the redshirt freshman against a real opponent after passing for 200 yards and two scores last week. Mensah was extremely impressive in fall camp, beating out two quarterbacks who were thought to be ahead of him on the depth chart. WR Dontae Fleming ($4,500) was tied for second in routes run last week and played 49% of the offensive snaps.
Injury Notes – n/a
Bowling Green vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -34.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: PSU 42 – BG 7.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 11% rain / 8 mph winds
Bowling Green:
In the essence of time, we’ll keep this portion brief with the lowest implied total on the slate. TE Harold Fannin ($5,000) is arguably the best tight end in college football, at least for fantasy purposes, and is rosterable in any matchup. RB Terion Stewart ($5,000) looked plenty healthy last week with 161 yards and three touchdowns on 14 carries in the win over Fordham. Not starting Stewart against what was the best rush defense in college football a year ago, but good to know for future weeks. WR Malcolm Johnson Jr. ($4,200) and WR Jaylon Tillman ($3,700) had seven of the 10 targets last week that went to Bowling Green wideouts while RJ Garcia was out due to injury.
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($6,700) Nothing changed last week from a touch standpoint – a near even split still between Singleton and RB Kaytron Allen ($5,300). Yet you could see the talent disparity between the two as Singleton rumbled for 114 yards on 13 attempts and a touchdown, while Allen averaged just two yards per carry on 10 attempts. The dynamic could change this week if Penn State gets inside the red-zone more, where Allen is most effective, but Singleton looks to be the RB to own here right now.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($5,900) One prediction from the Penn State beat writer was that Fleming leads the team with six receptions. I ain’t buying that at all. The former 5-star simply has never been productive in his entire career. Fleming did play nearly 50% of the game last week but wasn’t targeted a single time.
Bargain Bin – RB Cam Wallace ($3,300) Wallace got much of the garbage time reps against West Virginia following the lightning delay with 24 yards on eight attempts. Should this week play out similarly, that amount of volume should result in more fantasy points against a MAC defense.
Pivot Play – QB Drew Allar ($8,500) Just reading some game previews for this matchup, and the prevailing notion is that we could see Penn State spread the ball around more against a MAC opponent. Won’t impact the amount of points the Nittany Lions score, but possibly fewer touches for some of the top skill position players. That won’t be the case for Allar, who looked sensational last week with 216 passing yards and three scores against a P4 defense on the road. This isn’t a strong QB slate, so I’ll have a good bit of exposure here.
Best of the Rest – TE Tyler Warren ($4,400) Fannin might be the best fantasy tight end in the country, but Warren is no slouch. He played the most offensive snaps of any PSU player not named Drew Allar vs. West Virginia with three targets. WR Harrison Wallace ($5,800) was dominant against the Mountaineers with 117 yards and two touchdowns with 48% of the target share. He’ll be a weekly option with no proven wideout beyond him on the team. WR Omari Evans ($3,900) was the only other wide receiver to accumulate a target vs. WVU.
Injury Notes – WR Kaden Saunders ($4,200) Saunders was back at practice this week, but seemingly only taking special teams reps. Would not consider him.
Georgia Tech vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: GT -3
O/U Total: 61
Implied Score: GT 32 – Syr 29
Weather: Dome
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Jamal Haynes ($6,900) Strong start to the year for Haynes with three rushing touchdowns combined against Florida State and Georgia State. Would have to imagine that will continue against a Syracuse defense that just allowed 200+ rushing yards to Ohio’s Anthony Tyus. This team could depend on Haynes even more with Trey Cooley out for the foreseeable future.
Fade – WR Christian Leary ($4,300) The former Alabama transfer has been relegated to special teams’ duties only at this point, running just seven routes last week against Georgia State with a single target. Leary is sixth among GT receivers in snaps played.
Bargain Bin – TE Avery Boyd ($3,400) Boyd ran just nine routes last week and is not the team’s starting tight end but was targeted four times while catching a touchdown pass. We’ll always be intrigued by wide receivers turned tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Eric Singleton ($5,800) Is this the sophomore slump season for Singleton? After bursting onto the scene as a freshman, it’s been a quiet two weeks with just 62 yards on nine targets, though is still playing his typical allotment of snaps. Most will be on Malik Rutherford after his blazing start.
Best of the Rest – QB Haynes King ($8,100) We’ll want exposure this week to at least one of the Haynes for Georgia Tech with the implied team total over 30 points. King got it done through the air last week against GSU , completing 83% of his throws for two scores. His low rushing output of five attempts seems consistent when Georgia Tech faces an overmatched opponent. Not the case this week against an ACC foe, and we’ll expect double-digit carries again for QB1. WR Malik Rutherford ($5,500) might just end up as the team’s WR1 by end of year, now with a team-high 14 targets in two weeks, nine more than the next closest receiver.
Injury Notes – RB Trey Cooley ($5,000) Head coach Brent Key said this week that Cooley is out with no timetable for his return. Doesn’t sound like it’ll be anytime soon.
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($7,000) The LeQuintessential (like what I did there?) Allen performance last week against Ohio, rushing for 98 yards on 15 attempts while also being a factor in the passing game with four catches and a touchdown. Guaranteed volume should be expected each week for Allen with a true freshman behind him on the depth chart and a non-running QB now with him in the backfield.
Fade – WR Jackson Meeks ($4,600) Meeks is one of two WR transfers to come from Georgia over the offseason but failed to make much an impact in Week 1 with just 30% snaps played and two targets. Syracuse appears to have a distinct top four amongst its pass-catchers and Meeks isn’t part of that top group.
Bargain Bin – WR Zeed Haynes ($4,300) Haynes ran the fourth most routes among Syracuse receivers and was targeted six times vs. Ohio. He was the team’s offensive best offensive player dating back to spring camp and doesn’t seem to be a fluke.
Pivot Play – WR Umari Hatcher ($6,400) Hatcher is too expensive for me, and I’d rather go with any combination of Haynes, Pena or Gadsden over him. That said, Hatcher played 72% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 and ran the second most routes on the team. He’ll be extremely low owned.
Best of the Rest – TE Oronde Gadsden ($5,000) No rust for Gadsden after only playing in two games last season, catching a team-high seven passes on 10 targets. There were offseason videos of Gadsden putting his hand in the dirt like a true tight end, but he still played 68% of his snaps in the slot. He’s a receiver. WR Trebor Pena ($4,900) is a strong pivot off Gadsden if you think his ownership will be too high. Pena was another offseason standout that came out firing in the opening game with 6-78-2 on seven targets. QB Kyle McCord ($7,000) seems to be in a perfect situation now that he’s out of the spotlight in Columbus. 354 yards and four touchdowns vs. Ohio. Still a non-runner which limits his value, but he’s got a lot of talented pieces around him to succeed.
Injury Notes – n/a
California vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: Aub -13.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Aub 33.5 – Cal 20
Weather: 80 degrees / 17% rain / 8 mph winds
California:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaydn Ott ($9,100) Ott is deemed as probable by HC Justin Wilcox after hobbling off the field last week with an injury. When in the game, he was his usual self with 49 yards and two touchdowns while also nabbing four receptions out of the backfield. Cal averaged just 2.9 yards per carry as a team against UC Davis, though. A possible less-than-100-percent Ott on the road against Auburn is a tough sell to have a ton of exposure.
Fade – QBs. No answers after one week as to who is the full-time starter between Fernando Mendoza and Chandler Rogers, and there’s a chance we will see both on Saturday depending how the game flows. Mendoza had the statistical edge, throwing for 158 yards and a touchdown on 22 attempts, compared to just six passing attempts for Rogers. A possible platoon for a team that was outgained in the first half by UC Davis doesn’t inspire confidence in this situation this week.
Bargain Bin – WR Mavin Anderson ($3,800) Anderson played 69% of the offensive snaps last Saturday, while converting on four of his team-high five targets.
Pivot Play – WR Trond Grizzell ($4,800) Regardless of if Merriweather and Grayes play on Saturday, I believe Grizzell is locked into a starting job in the slot. Not your conventional slot receiver at 6-foot-4, but Grizzell is the most experienced WR on the team. The slot receiver was the WR1 in all three years that OC Mike Bloesch called plays at North Texas previously.
Best of the Rest – WR Nyziah Hunter ($3,500) This is going to be a revolving door at wide receiver for the Bears in the early part of the season, and with the QB situation, we’d probably advise fading the entire group. Hunter was the most impressive of the options last week with 4-47-1 on four targets, despite only running nine routes on the day. WR Jonathan Brady ($4,800) was third among receivers in snaps played and second in routes run.
Injury Notes – WR Tobias Merriweather ($5,500) and WR Kiyon Grayes ($5,200) The pair of transfers did not play last Saturday due to injury, and finding current injury updates on both is a struggle. While both were locked in as starters coming out of fall camp, their injury status + the QB performances from last week basically assure us that we’ll fade both players. RB Kadarius Calloway ($4,500) was also hobbled last week, though he came out of the game after a fumble too and didn’t return.
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – QB Payton Thorne ($7,800) Auburn cruised to a 70-point win last Saturday where the team had only 32 plays on offense because of the new explosive weapons at Payton Thorne’s disposal. The senior QB tossed four touchdowns in the first half, averaging over 15 yards per attempt and an aDOT of 16.7 which is nearly doubling last season. Those numbers will come down, obviously, but a positive sign for future weeks. Thorne is a high variance QB as shown last year with three performances of 30+ fantasy points, while also failing to score 16 fantasy points in eight of nine games.
Fade – WR Robert Lewis ($6,500) Auburn’s starters were barely on the field last week so we don’t have a true feel for the starting rotation just yet. Auburn’s game week depth chart lists Lewis, the Georgia State transfer, as the starter. PFF shows differently last week with Malcolm Simmons. Until we have a gauge of the WR two-deep, I think we will fade the highest-priced player in Lewis.
Bargain Bin – WR Malcolm Simmons ($3,000) Simmons played just as much as Lewis last week, and far more productive, targeted five times for 90 yards and a touchdown. Last week showed exactly why Auburn had the No. 1 ranked WR recruiting class in the country.
Pivot Play – RB Jarquez Hunter ($6,500) Hunter is the surefire RB1 and looked good in the opener with 53 yards and a score on four attempts. The issue is volume as Hugh Freeze tends to divvy the carries between multiple backs and the QB in the run game. Hunter averaged just 11.4 attempts per game a year ago.
Best of the Rest – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($6,500) KLS looked right at home after transferring from Penn State, catching two touchdowns on Saturday. WR Cam Coleman ($4,500) also caught a long touchdown while tied for the team lead in routes run. TE Rivaldo Fairweather ($4,500) played the second most offensive snaps behind Thorne last week and was Auburn’s leading pass-catcher a year ago.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -9.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: UK 26.5 – SC 17
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Rocket Sanders ($5,200) That looked closer to the 2022 version or Rocket Sanders that hit 1,400 yards rushing. Still just 88 yards on 24 carries (3.8 YPC) but we love the volume and Sanders looked energetic and slimmed down from last year. No other SC running back had more than four rushing attempts.
Fade – WR Gage Larvadain ($5,400) Are we seeing another cautionary tale of a talent ed G5 player transferring up to a P4 destination, only to get squeezed out of a starting rotation? In the competitive matchup with Old Dominion, the former Miami (OH) transfer played all of 13% of the snaps and was not targeted a single time.
Bargain Bin – TE Joshua Simon ($3,100) High-level box score only reflects two targets with one catch, but Simon was on the field practically the entire game with 89% of the offensive snaps. From that standpoint, Simon should be prioritized (I use this word loosely) over Michael Smith and Brady Hunt.
Pivot Play – QB LaNorris Sellers ($6,500) Beamer ball at its finest, amiright? The highly touted 4-star failed to complete 40% of his passes against Old Dominion. How’s Sellers going to fare then against a top half SEC caliber defense? That said, 21 rushing attempts is exactly what we want from a fantasy QB. Sellers and Sanders dominated the backfield share with 45 of the 53 rushing attempts.
Best of the Rest – WR Vandrevius Jacobs ($4,500) The former Florida State transfer arrived over the summer, yet his impact was instant, leading the Gamecocks with four targets and playing the most snaps of any SC receiver. Coastal Carolina transfer WR Jared Brown ($5,800) was a close second in both categories, but the price discrepancy means we favor Jacobs of the two. WR Mazeo Bennett ($3,000) seems to be solidified as the starting slot receiver if Week 1 was an indication.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Demie Sumo ($6,200) Sumo will get the RB1 duties again on Saturday with both Chip Trayanum and Jamarion Wilcox unlikely to play. It wasn’t until the game was in hand that prized freshman Jason Patterson saw playing time so this should be Sumo’s job for the foreseeable future. South Carolina limited Old Dominion to just 3.1 yards per carry last Saturday. Based on pricing and potential workload with the injuries, Sumo will be a popular selection.
Fade – UK Pass-Catchers Beyond Big 3. The game was called at halftime, so we don’t have a full games worth of data, but the trio of Brown, Key and Maclin combined for 14 of the 18 targets last Saturday. Only one other wide receiver beyond them played over 20% of the snaps. That’ll be consistent with what we see Saturday in a competitive SEC showdown.
Bargain Bin – TE Jordan Dingle ($3,400) This truly isn’t a system that utilizes the tight end often under Mark Stoops. We’re listing Dingle as he did catch a touchdown last week and was on the field 70% of the time.
Pivot Play – QB Brock Vandagriff ($7,100) I don’t foresee us getting anything drastically different this season from Vandagriff that we didn’t see last year with Devin Leary from a passing standpoint. The difference between the two is rushing utilization, as Vandagriff is not a statue as shown last week with 35 yards on five attempts.
Best of the Rest – WR Barion Brown ($6,500) We all know the situation at WR for Kentucky so we’re not belaboring the point. It is interesting that Brown started the game in the backfield for Kentucky on the first offensive position and finished the day with three attempts. Slight nod to him if choosing between Brown, Dane Key and Ja’Mori Maclin.
Injury Notes – RB Chip Trayanum ($6,000) Out for at least another week. RB Jamarion Wilcox ($3,700) is questionable per the SEC Availability Report.
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -2.5
O/U Total: 35.5
Implied Score: Iowa 19 – ISU 16.5
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaylin Noel ($5,200) Noel gets a bump over Jayden Higgins on DK over FD because of the PPR scoring settings and pricing. The senior slot receiver led Iowa State with eight targets last week, converting on every pass thrown his way for 135 yards and a touchdown. Nice to see the high aDOT from Noel last week as well (12.9).
Fade – RB Jaylon Jackson ($5,200) The Eastern Michigan transfer is priced like he’s the 1B behind Abu Sama. That’s not the case and I’m not sure if Jackson is actually RB2 with Carson Hansen also getting carries.
Bargain Bin – WR Eli Green ($4,000) Chalk this one up as a player I missed during the summer. Green is a North Dakota State transfer that led the Bison with nearly 1,200 all-purpose yards and 877 receiving yards in 2023. He was second on the team last week in both targets (7) and routes run.
Pivot Play – QB Rocco Becht ($6,100) Proficient passing day from Becht last week, completing 77% of his throws with two touchdowns. That’s now four straight games where Becht has scored at least 20 fantasy points dating back to last season. Low floor on Becht given the game totals and he’s a non-runner mostly, but he’s been exceptional since last November.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayden Higgins ($5,600) Not as loud a day as Noel had last week, but Higgins also converted on all his targets, posting 5-75-1 while also running the most routes of any Iowa State receiver. We’re loving the target share between the top three Iowa State wideouts with 20 of the 26 targets. Sophomore TE Benjamin Brahmer ($4,000) was a surprise non-factor against North Dakota with just two targets, but also played just 34% of the offensive snaps. Gabe Burkle was on the field more than Brahmer. I’d wait a week to see if that changes. RB Abu Sama ($5,500) was a little banged up in the first half of Week 1 and the staff didn’t want to risk injury with the game in hand. I’d be surprised if Sama didn’t get the lion’s share of the carries in this in-state matchup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa:
Top Play(s) – TE Luke Lachey ($3,800) New offensive coordinator, same dominant tight end production from Iowa. Team-high eight targets with six receptions for 63 yards. Too low a price for one of the best tight ends in the country.
Fade – QB Cade McNamara ($6,200) McNamara rebounded from a pitiful first half performance against Illinois State, finishing with 251 yards and three touchdowns. There’s reason to believe this year’s Iowa offense will be much-improved over last year’s unit, but won’t have any exposure here with this low game total.
Bargain Bin – WR Reece Vander Zee ($3,500) We don’t research Iowa receivers when studying up for College Fantasy Football in the offseason, so I don’t know anything about Vander Zee outside of he was the team’s leading receiver against Illinois State with 66 yards and two scores. I don’t think his starting spot is in jeopardy with Kaleb Brown returning from suspension.
Pivot Play – RB Kaleb Johnson ($4,200) over RB Kamari Moulton ($4,800) Over the weekend, I was at a Labor Day party and was chatting with friends of mine who were Iowa grads and big football fans. I asked the two of them who is the actual RB1 for this team? They could not give me a clear response. Moulton ‘probably’ gets the first carry, but I’m leaning Johnson as the preferred option after his performance in the second half, rushing for 119 yards and two scores on 11 attempts.
Best of the Rest – WR Kaleb Brown ($4,500) Brown returns from suspension this week after an offseason DUI arrest. He was Iowa’s best playmaker down the stretch last season with 22 receptions but is listed as a backup on this week’s depth chart. Don’t expect him to start or play a full load of snaps on Saturday. TE Addison Ostrenga ($3,500) played 60% of the team’s offensive snaps vs. ISU with three targets. Seems Iowa will still be deploying 2-TE sets often. WR Jacob Gill ($4,100) is probably the fourth or fifth option in the passing game, despite running the most routes of any Iowa receiver last week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor vs. Utah
Point-Spread: Utah -14.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Utah 35.5 – BU 21
Weather: 87 degrees / 1% rain / 4 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – QB Dequan Finn ($7,000) Finn will need to play much better this week if Baylor is to pull the upset as he had three turnover-worthy plays against Tarleton State last Saturday. Just six carries for 32 yards from the dual-threat QB which is well below his average from year’s past with Toledo, though likely part of the plan where he wasn’t needed in harm’s way. Matchup isn’t great, but Finn will likely run 10+ times and cheap enough to not break the bank.
Fade – WR Jamaal Bell ($3,500) and WR Hal Presley ($3,800) Box scores don’t reflect good usage for either player last week. Bell was targeted twice but came in the second half while playing just 14% of snaps. Presley was listed as a starter but played just a third of the game and was goose-egged on the stat sheet. Seems both are out of the top four rotation.
Bargain Bin – WR Ashtyn Hawkins ($4,000) The former Cal and Texas State transfer had just two targets but converted on both and found the end-zone. Hawkins ran the second most routes on the team and played the second most offensive snaps behind only Dequan Finn. Hawkins familiarity with OC Jake Spavital should really boost him early on in this offense as his teammates are the ones getting acclimated to the new scheme.
Pivot Play – RB Richard Reese ($3,600) over RB Dawson Pendergrass ($3,800) Realistically, you aren’t playing either player in a split backfield vs. a good Utah defense. Making matters worse was the fact that Baylor struggled to block against Tarleton State, ranking 96th in run block grades per PFF. Reese is the far more dynamic of the two players and saw slightly more carries and snaps on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Ketron Jackson Jr. ($4,200) The former Arkansas transfer was a standout in fall camp and that translated to Saturday with a team high five targets and a touchdown. WR Monaray Baldwin ($4,700) ran the most routes of any Baylor wideout. Jackson, Baldwin, Hawkins, and WR Josh Cameron ($4,900) comprise of the top four based on time spent on the field.
Injury Notes – RB Dominic Richardson ($4,300) Richardson did not play last week with an undisclosed injury, and Twitter comments seem to suggest he’ll be out Saturday as well.
Utah:
Top Play(s) – TE Brant Kuithe ($6,300) Usually this high a price for a tight end is reserved for an Oronde Gadsden or a Brock Bowers. Kuithe is entering that category when healthy, and he sure as hell looked it last week, catching three touchdown passes after missing all of last season. Not much to go off of from last week because the starters only played a half of football, but we can say for certainty that two players will have the ball in their hands consistently – Kuithe and the quarterback.
Fade – WR Mycah Pittman ($4,900) and RB Jaylon Glover ($5,000) We’re still figuring out rotations here, but we’re going to use the one-week sample size as evidence to sit both Pittman and Glover. Of the four running backs in the backfield, Glover saw the least playing time of the bunch. Pittman was targeted just once. There’s also the sample size of prior years where both players have rarely met value.
Bargain Bin – RB Dijon Stanley ($4,800) Cheapest we’d go here with a Utah option. Stanley was the talk of Week 1, coming out of nowhere as the team’s RB4 to 36 fantasy points, most of which coming through the air on some busted coverage plays. Stanley finished with 184 total yards and three touchdowns on the day. Was this a one-off or more to come? Stanley did average close to six yards a carry for the game, so he did show some burst that the others lacked.
Pivot Play – WR Dorian Singer ($6,100) It was through no fault of his own that Singer had a modest performance against Southern Utah with just two catches on four targets. Nothing you can do when a tight end and backup running back combine for five receiving touchdowns. Singer was still the talk of fall camp and we expect to have a big year as Utah throws the ball more than usual. Think DeVaughn Vele-esque production.
Best of the Rest – RB Micah Bernard ($5,800) The senior running back will still trot out with the starters on the opening series. Here’s the problem – now Utah seemingly has someone (Stanley) that can do the exact same things on the field. Likely lessens Bernard’s value when considering it’s a four-man rotation. WR Money Parks ($5,900) had just one target in the opening week. He’ll be extremely under owned as a result. Here’s the catch – 8 of the 15 passes that QB Cam Rising ($8,900) threw before exiting were to his receivers. So, play a full game and Parks will see 4-5 targets each week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northern Illinois vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -27.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: ND 36 – NIU 8.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 13% rain / 14 mph winds
Northern Illinois:
The 54-15 bludgeoning of Western Illinois last week has this NIU grad optimistic about the 2024 season now. Not in this matchup, though. Not after watching the Notre Dame defense stifle Texas A&M on the road. QB Ethan Hampton ($5,200) was in a competition all offseason but looks to be the clear-cut QB1 after his five-touchdown performance while completing over 90% of his passes. Assuming he still has the job in MAC play, he could be an option against lesser defenses. RB Antario Brown ($5,200) was limited to just eight carries, mostly for precautionary reasons during a blowout, but also had a fumble. He’ll be in plenty of our lineups in October and November. WR Trayvon Rudolph ($5,500) looked like the 2021 version of himself, topping 100+ yards on four targets, while adding 67 yards and another score on the ground. He’s the top option if looking for a NIU starter. WR/TE hybrid Grayson Barnes ($4,000) will function as the WR2 behind Rudolph and was targeted six times despite playing just 1/3 of the game vs. WIU.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($8,600) After the defensive battle against A&M, we expect the Irish to open up the offense a bit against a MAC opponent. Leonard was efficient throwing the football with 158 yards and zero turnovers, but it was his work on the ground following last year’s ankle injury that is promising for QB1’s future outlook. 64 yards on 11 rushing attempts. High floor play with Leonard that likely won’t kill your lineups.
Fade – TE Mitchell Evans ($6,200) Recent videos from the team’s social media leading up to Week 1 had most convinced that Evans was fully healthy and would be impactful against the Aggies. Not the case, playing just 15% of the offensive snaps without a target. We’d imagine they’ll continue to increase Evans’ reps steadily with each passing game but can’t risk playing him in DFS at that price.
Bargain Bin – TE Cooper Flanagan ($3,800) Probably the cheapest we’d go as far as Irish DFS options. Flanagan played over 64% of the team’s offensive snaps, more than both Eli Raridon and Mitchell Evans, finishing with two targets.
Pivot Play – WR Kris Mitchell ($6,000) With Faison out of the lineup, the FIU transfer is now the full-time starter at one of the boundary positions. Mitchell didn’t have much of an impact when on the field vs. the Aggies with just a single reception on two targets, but this is more the level of competition he’s used to playing against.
Best of the Rest – RB Jeremiyah Love ($6,400) Love held the edge over RB Jadarian Price ($7,100) last week in both touches and production, so unsure why the salaries are flipped here. Both are playable. WR Beaux Collins ($5,900) led all ND receivers in targets (7) and snaps played. WR Jaden Greathouse ($6,500) caught all three of his targets and should be more effective in the middle of the field with Mitchell Evans not 100%. Ran the second most routes of any Irish receiver.
Injury Notes – WR Jordan Faison ($4,300) Faison was in a walking boot on the sidelines last Saturday and will be out a few weeks.
Michigan State vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -9.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: MD 27 – MSU 17.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 26% rain / 10 mph winds
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – TE Jack Velling ($4,100) Velling didn’t have a major impact last week against FAU with just one reception on three targets but ran the third most routes of any MSU pass-catcher and played 78% of the offensive snaps. We’re not spending a considerable amount for any MSU offensive player this week after last Friday’s showing. So much for betting the over, Aidan Chiles.
Fade – QB Aidan Chiles ($7,000) Rough outing for the former 4-star, completing just 42% of his passes with two interceptions against a decent Florida Atlantic defense. Against a B1G defense on the road where there is some anticipated rain, we’ll fade.
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Masunas ($3,000) No, we’re not playing a backup tight end on a team projected to score less than three touchdowns. That said, Masunus played a lot last week, over 50% of the offensive snaps, with a pair of targets.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Carter ($6,000) It was UMass transfer RB Kay’Ron Lynch Adams ($4,500) who had the most impactful play of the game last week with a long touchdown run, but Carter was on the field significantly more with a 19-9 advantage in rushing attempts. I don’t think MSU is adjusting the depth chart after one game, so it’d surprise us to see Adams get more run than Carter on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Montorie Foster ($5,900) As expected being the only proven wide receiver on the team, Foster dominated the target share (7) and was on the field 85% of the time. WR Jaron Glover ($4,800) was shut out in the stat column, but was ran the most routes of any MSU receiver and was targeted five times. Those two, along with Velling, are the only pieces of mild interest in the Spartans’ passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Billy Edwards ($6,500) So much for quarterback controversy. Edwards put his stamp on the QB1 job against UConn, passing for 311 yards, two touchdowns, while adding 39 yards on the ground. Remember, this is also a player that rushed for seven touchdowns a year ago as a goal-line option that we didn’t even see in the first week.
Fade – Tight Ends. We’ve had a string of excellent fantasy producers at tight end from Maryland over the years from Corey Dyches to Chig Okonkwo. This season that lineage might end. Three different tight ends played over 30% of the team’s offensive snaps with a combined three targets. Not sure if there is a difference maker in the group.
Bargain Bin – RB Nolan Ray ($4,500) The redshirt freshman is going to be difficult to keep off the field. Glowing practice reports in spring/fall camp turned into production on the field with 60 yards and a touchdown on just six attempts. WR Octavian Smith Jr. ($3,900) is also an option, playing the third most snaps among Maryland receivers in Week 1 with three targets.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($6,100) Maryland leaned on its senior running back in the win over UConn with 14 carries and a touchdown. For one week, the Maryland run game did look improved and gets the MSU defense that allowed the third most rushing yards in the Big Ten in Week 1.
Best of the Rest – WR Tai Felton ($5,400) and Kaden Prather ($4,600) Felton was the star of the show last week with 178 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Not as prolific, but Prather was also effective with 6-60-0. That said, this duo dominated with 46% of the team’s target share. No other player had more than three targets against the Huskies. Sign of things to come?
Injury Notes – n/a
