South Carolina vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Ark -8.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Ark 30.5 – USC 22
Weather: 79 degrees / 5% rain / 4 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – TE Jaheim Bell ($3,500) Ultimate Swiss army knife in college football. Four receptions on four targets. Was tied for second on the team in carries (7) for 30 yards. Movement skills like a receiver. Only player that might touch the ball more on the South Carolina offense this season is the quarterback.
Fade – WR Josh Vann ($6,400) Last year’s WR1 out of favor in the wide receiver rotation? Fifth most snaps among South Carolina receivers and caught just one pass on four targets. OC Marcus Satterfield hasn’t had a WR with over 29% target share in the last four seasons. Easy fade.
Bargain Bin – WR Antwane Wells ($4,900) Was not a listed starter, but the former James Madison transfer posted seven receptions on eight targets (team high), while also leading the Gamecocks’ receivers in snaps played. As an 8.5-point underdog on a team that averaged 2.47 YPC against Georgia State, South Carolina is going to have to throw the ball.
Pivot Play – QB Spencer Rattler ($5,900) If you followed along with us during the CFF offseason, we are not fans of offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield. Personnel is there for this USC offense to be dynamic, and yet it hasn’t been in the last 13 games.
Best of the Rest – RB Marshawn Lloyd ($5,500) South Carolina ran for just 88 yards on 28 carries (3.1 YPC) as a team, with Lloyd receiving just 11 attempts. Did show his versatility as a receiver with four targets and a receiving touchdown, giving him a solid projection this week of 16 fantasy points. Not someone you’re targeting heavily, though, given USC’s struggles to block. WR Jalen Brooks ($4,800) played the second most snaps behind Wells at wide receiver, converting on all four of his targets for 88 yards.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB K.J. Jefferson ($7,400) Highest projection by a considerable margin of any Arkansas player, yet very reasonable price point. Jefferson was extremely efficient vs. Cincinnati, completing 70% of his throws for 223 yards and three scores, while adding 81 yards and a TD on 12 carries. Really did not test the Bearcats downfield at all last week with an aDOT of just 7.5 – we’ll see if that changes against the Gamecocks who have two very experienced safeties in their secondary and a future NFL draft pick at corner.
Fade – Warren Thompson ($5,000) Thompson played nearly equal offensive snaps to Matt Landers yet was only target three times for minimal yards against the Bearcats. The former Florida State transfer appears to now be the fourth option in the passing game behind Jadon Haselwood, Landers and tight end Trey Knox.
Bargain Bin – WR Matt Landers ($3,900) Doubt that South Carolina is going to let Jefferson complete 69% of his throws again this week, so we’ll likely see the Arkansas passing game take a few more deep shots. Quiet day for the former Toledo transfer last week, but caught three passes on four targets and his 15.3 aDOT was significantly higher than any other Razorback player. As mentioned above, he played more than everyone else as well.
Pivot Play – RB Raheim Sanders ($7,900) DK screwed up pricing again this week so you’re probably going to see less than 1% ownership with Sanders as the second-highest priced RB on the slate. Now add in the fact that Dom Johnson could be back this week, and the position coach stated he wants to see more of A.J. Green and Rashad Dubinion moving forward. Just coach-speak? If rostering Sanders, you’re hoping he and KJ Jefferson handle 85% of the workload on the ground as they did against the Bearcats with minimal intervention from someone else. Don’t forget either that South Carolina gave up 200 yards rushing and allowed 5.0 YPC to Georgia State last Saturday.
Best of the Rest – TE Trey Knox ($4,100) Transition to tight end worked out well for the former 4-star receiver. Knox played the second-most snaps of any skill position player not named KJ Jefferson and led the Razorbacks with six receptions on seven targets.
Injury Notes – RB Dominique Johnson ($6,000) was in full pads in practice this week without the green jersey meaning he was full-go. Unplayable at $6k, but curious to see how Rocket Sanders’ reps are affected.
Missouri vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -7.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: KSU 31.5 – Mizzou 24
Weather: 78 degrees / 10% rain / 12 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($5,900) Coaches hinted most of the offseason that they wanted to feature wide receivers in the running game, specifically their 5-star freshman, and did exactly that as Burden had six total touches with two scores in the win over Louisiana Tech. Second most targets (7) and third most offensive snaps amongst the skill position players. We know that Burden is going to touch the ball 5+ times every week, or that’ll at least be the goal coming in.
Fade – RB Elijah Young ($6,600) Totally makes sense that Elijah Young, Missouri’s RB3, is priced ahead of Chase Brown and Brad Roberts. C’mon DraftKings. Young saw just eight snaps in a blowout situation, and it was not because Missouri rested their starters.
Bargain Bin – WR Dominic Lovett ($4,800) We always highlight the 5-star freshman, but Lovett has impressed since all offseason since he topped 100 receiving yards in the spring game. The forgotten man it seems, Lovett was hyper-efficient with his 35 offensive snaps, leading the Tigers with six receptions on eight targets. At some point, the sophomore receiver needs to see more playing time over the likes of Tauskie Dove.
Pivot Play – RB Nathaniel Peat ($5,900) We posted in the CFF Site Discord some notes from the Missouri Rivals site that indicated they felt Peat was the best running back on the field against Louisiana Tech despite just seeing eight carries. Still wound up rushing for 72 yards and a score. The soft tissue injury that occurred in fall camp seems to be behind Peat, and he should ascend to the top of the depth chart at some point.
Best of the Rest – WR Tauskie Dove ($3,700) Dove was a popular under prop play last week, but he’s cheap enough to where we have to consider given his involvement in the offense. Just three targets for minimal yardage, but played the most offensive snaps of any wide receiver on the team. I would not discount QB Brady Cook ($5,800). All he’s done is post 20+ fantasy points in his last two starts – projected to top that mark again this week – and rushed for 50 or more yards in both games. Punting both at the QB and Sflex an option?
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB Deuce Vaughn ($7,600) Vaughn faces what was the 124th ranked rush defense a year ago. In a dramatic turn of events, after just one week the Tigers are ranked No. 1 in the country as they allowed just eight yards on the ground to Louisiana Tech. Sign of things to come or a mirage? Nine of Kansas State’s 15 highest-rated offensive players are linemen, and HC Eli Drinkwitz believes the OL is K-State’s best positional group.
Fade – Everyone not named Vaughn or Martinez The Kansas State offense will revolve around Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez if past history is any indication. Vaughn accounted for 53.8% volume share in the Wildcats’ backfield a season ago and led the team in target share. In four of the last five seasons, the Kansas State quarterback was second on the team in rushing attempts, which assuredly will happen again in 2022 with Martinez now at the helm.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Malik Knowles ($4,800) Longshot play at best. Knowles was targeted three time vs. South Dakota, averaging just 4.7 yards per reception. Unusual for an explosive player like Knowles who’s averaged 14.1 YPC over his career. The senior receiver made his presence felt, though, with a 75-yard touchdown run – the second of his career.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: WF -11.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: WF 38.5 – Vandy 27
Weather: 70 degrees / 61% rain / 5 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – WR A.T. Perry ($6,900) Perry was one of many top-flight receivers to have a quiet Week 1. Understandable for Perry given it was a blowout victory over VMI and Wake Forest has a surplus of talent options at the position. It was notable all throughout the offseason the continued connection between Hartman and his WR1, so the move back to the star quarterback should benefit Perry here, and we like the price savings at $6,900. This will be the lowest salary Perry is at all year.
Fade – RB Christian Turner ($7,200) Turner had the better rushing week over Justice Ellison, totaling 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns. But he’s a backup. RB1 averages 14.7 carries per game over the last eight seasons. That number is 10.6 for the RB2 and 10.6 for the QB1. Rushing attempts are distributed relatively evenly across the board between multiple players in this pass-heavy scheme.
Bargain Bin – WR Ke’Shawn Williams ($4,000) Will rotate with Taylor Morin at the slot receiver position and jump in when Wake goes to 4-WR sets. Caught three passes on four targets last week. Played just 42% of the offensive snaps last week despite a blowout victory so this is a longshot play.
Pivot Play – WR Taylor Morin ($5,900) If looking to pivot of Perry or combine WF wide receivers for a stack play, I believe most players will look towards Donavon Greene who was second behind Perry in offensive snaps and led the Deacons in targets. Reminder that the slot receiver (Morin) has finished as the WR1 or WR2 in each of the last six seasons, and Morin played well last week catching all five targets for 74 yards and a score. Plenty of risk here as Morin’s been a hit or miss type player over the years.
Best of the Rest – QB Sam Hartman ($8,000) Mitch Griffis played well in relief, but this Wake Forest offense operates at a different level with Hartman under center. Gets a matchup with a Vanderbilt secondary that is allowing 296 YPG through two weeks, including 343 yards and two scores to Elon in the opener.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – QB Mike Wright ($5,800) Will be a popular play this weekend after his scorching start to 2022 with 94.3 fantasy points scored in two games. His rushing abilities get the attention, but Wright’s been very accurate to start the year, completing 62% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero turnovers. Only averaging 195 yards per game so this is not a situation where you need to pair Wright with a receiver in a stack.
Fade – RB Rocko Griffin ($5,500) HC Clark Lea said this week that Griffin will play against Wake Forest after missing the contest with Elon due to injury. Griffin is a good complement to start Ray Davis, but I don’t understand his 11-point projection. Only received nine offensive snaps and five carries in the win over Hawaii in Week 1 when healthy.
Bargain Bin – WR Quincy Skinner ($3,000) Not advisable to play Skinner, but Lea did state the sophomore receiver will play this week after sitting out last Saturday. Was second on the team in targets in the win over Hawaii in the opener.
Pivot Play – WR Will Sheppard ($5,500) The 6-foot-3 sophomore was exceptional last year during non-conference play and that has continued into 2022 as Sheppard’s posted two touchdowns in each of the last two games. Step up in competition this week with Wake Forest, but Sheppard is an integral part of the offense, targeted 16 times already.
Best of the Rest – RB Ray Davis ($5,500) Davis likely won’t see the 20 attempts he did vs. Elon with Rocko Griffin back in the lineup, but is averaging 6.3 yards per carry through two games. Wake Forest limited VMI to under three yards per carry in the opener. Star freshman WR Jayden McGowan ($5,000) topped 100 yards receiving for the first time last week. He and Sheppard have combined for 54% of the team’s target share so far.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Bama -20.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: Bama 42.5 – Tex 22
Weather: 86 degrees / 5% rain / 4 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Bryce Young ($10,200) Tough to swallow the exorbitant salary but was a GPP winner last weekend, combining for 295 yards and six touchdowns. Maybe we didn’t see the true rotations as the skill positions, but with the targets and carries being spread out so much amongst the WRs and RBs, best to play it safe with the Heisman frontrunner who will always have the ball in his hands.
Fade – RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,700) I suppose he will see very low ownership because some of the pricing mistakes DK made this week at running back, so Gibbs might be a good GPP play. But I’m very tentative after Week 1’s usage that we’re going to see a heavy workload this season out of Gibbs. We’ll get a better sense after this weekend about Gibbs’ long-term outlook, but nine carries and one reception is not promising.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaiah Bond ($3,000) The 4-star freshman saw more playing time than Ja’Corey Brooks in the blowout win over Utah State and was targeted four times. Should Alabama beat the breaks off Texas this week, good chance we see Nick Saban get his talented freshmen some more game experience.
Pivot Play – WR Jermaine Burton ($8,200) Those that expected Derrick Henry and DeVonta Smith like numbers from Jahmyr Gibbs and Jermaine Burton in 2022 might end up being disappointed. But the two transfers were still very productive in Week 1, specifically Burton who found the end-zone twice in the win. Like Burton over Gibbs this week because I do think we have a better grasp of the rotation at WR where the Georgia transfer, Traeshon Holden ($6,800) and Kobe Prentice ($6,900) seem to be a cut above the other receivers based on snap counts. That trio combined for 53% of the total team targets last Saturday.
Best of the Rest – RB Jase McClellan ($4,000) Possible flex play here was we have a 12-point projection for the Alabama RB2. Was the second running back on the field behind Gibbs and should see playing time in a blowout scenario.
Injury Notes – TE Cameron Latu ($4,300) will play on Saturday.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,700) Highest projection this week of any Longhorn player, but that is dependent on him scoring a touchdown here. He’ll see the targets – Ewers threw to him seven times last week, which led the team. Ewers was 1-of-5 last week on passes of 20 yards or more vs. the WarHawks, all of which went to Worthy. Just need them to connect on one likely to reach value. Alabama plays a ton of man coverage, which one would hope works in favor of the talented Mr. Worthy.
Fade – QB Quinn Ewers ($5,700) Anyone else worried about the health and safety of Quinn Ewers this week? We were nervous about the offensive line coming into the season for the Longhorns, but Week 1 didn’t alleviate any of that as they allowed three sacks to Louisiana-Monroe. Not what you want to see with Will Anderson coming to town.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,000) Looks like the 4-star sophomore is the answer to Texas’ concerns about who would step up outside of Xavier Worthy. Sanders might be that guy as he was second on the team with six targets last week, resulting in 85 yards and a score. I caution this – Sanders will see high ownership because of his salary this week. This isn’t a min value play that nobody will be on…see last week with Omarion Hampton.
Pivot Play – RB Bijan Robinson ($7,300) Ho-hum performance from Robinson last week, rushing for 71 yards and a score on 10 carries. His utilization in the passing game has me intrigued this week and moving forward. Three receptions on five targets, but there was a ton of screen action with both Robinson and Jordan Whittington to get the ball out of Ewers’ hand quickly. I’d imagine that’ll be the plan against the Tide’s defensive front.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Whittington ($5,100) Whittington was targeted four times with just three receptions, but beyond the three pass-catchers we’ve mentioned for Texas, who else is there for Ewers to throw to? Does Agiye Hall make an appearance? Whittington’s 34 offensive snaps were more than both Worthy and Robinson, so we know he has to be on the field.
Injury Notes – n/a
Southern Miss vs. Miami
Point-Spread: Mia -25.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Mia 38.5 – S. Miss 13
Weather: 90 degrees / 24% rain / 11 mph winds
Southern Miss:
Lowest implied score of the slate means we can skip right over the Golden Eagles whose passing game looked very similar offensively in Week 1 to last season’s disaster. Part of that was due to starting QB Ty Keyes ($4,900) suffering a concussion after a dirty late hit. He was not at practice this week. That downgrades WR1 Jason Brownlee ($5,100) who caught just one pass on five targets. Everyone may celebrate, though, as we get more opportunities to watch Frank Gore Jr. ($6,200) take snaps at quarterback like he did last season out of necessity. Gore Jr. was a star against Liberty with 178 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries.
Miami:
Top Play(s) – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($6,400) As favored as Miami is in this contest, it should be a challenge for TVD against a Southern Miss secondary that returns all four starters and held Liberty to just 51% completion rate last Saturday. Van Dyke was very sharp in the opener, completing 13-of-16 passes for 186 yards and two scores. As a SFlex option, TVD has one of the higher floor projections on the slate.
Fade – RB Jaylan Knighton ($5,300) Knighton was the first test-case for the Fantrax auto-sub system as we were notified five minutes after the game starting that Rooster no longer in pads and would not play. HC Mario Cristobal did say this was strictly precautionary and that Knighton would be available for Saturday. How much does he play in a blowout scenario? Probably wouldn’t risk rostering him, especially with how Henry Parrish Jr. performed.
Bargain Bin – RB Thaddius Franklin Jr. ($3,500) Saw extended run with the Week 1 blowout and Knighton sitting out, but Franklin is very different from the other two backs in that he’s 240 pounds. Rushed for 78 yards and two scores on nine carries in the Week 1 win.
Pivot Play – RB Henry Parrish Jr. ($6,300) Can’t have a better debut than Parrish did with 108 yards and three scores in the win over Bethune-Cookman. Have to think he sees a similar workload even with Knighton coming back to the lineup. OC Josh Gattis utilized multiple running backs routinely during his time at Michigan so both Miami RBs can be profitable to your lineup.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Restrepo ($6,800) The junior slot receiver feels like the only known commodity in the Miami WR room right now, catching all five of his targets last week while also finding the end-zone. Was very surprised to see his yards per route run number at 6.25, after averaging just 1.7 yards per route run his first two seasons. WR Brashard Smith ($3,000) was second on the team in targets and snaps in Week 1. TE Will Mallory ($4,400) saw just three targets but is arguably the most trusted pass-catcher on the offense, along with Restrepo as the Miami WR situation gets sorted out.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -24.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: PSU 39 – Ohio 14.5
Weather: 73 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Ohio:
Second-lowest implied score of the slate. But thankful for Prizepicks listing of their props so we can hammer the unders. I do want to mention Ohio’s top trio here as these players will undoubtedly come into play once we hit MACtion DFS. CFF production just oozes through the Rourke family. Five touchdowns in one of the best performances of the weekend for Kurtis Rourke ($5,000) as Ohio “upset” Florida Atlantic. Remember, back in July, the Bobcats hired former Washington State OC Brian Smith as a running backs coach and passing game coordinator. Maybe he’s having more of an influence on the scheme than originally thought. RB Sieh Bangura ($5,000) won the RB1 job this summer and his value is boosted with the season-ending injury to O’Shaan Allison. Posted 23 carries for 114 yards vs. FAU, and no other RB had more than one carry on the day. Former Vanderbilt transfer James Bostic ($4,900) looks to be the WR1 in 2022, posting 6-136-1 on seven targets. Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr. should have him under wraps most of the day.
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – WR Mitchell Tinsley ($5,700) Too cheap for the usage rates he saw last week vs. Purdue, posting 7-84-1 on a team-high 12 targets. The WR1 trend under Mike Yurcich of it always being the outside receiver looks to be alive and well, and we heard about Tinsley’s connection with Sean Clifford during the offseason.
Fade – RB Keyvone Lee ($5,300) The Penn State backfield is MESSY, and they didn’t do anything to squash the concerns of not being able to run the football. Averaged just 3.6 yards per carry vs. Purdue with nearly equal distribution of carries between Keyvone Lee, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Lee will still start on Saturday, but we’ll be looking to fade the least talented runner of the three in a prime opportunity against a MAC opponent to let your freshmen run wild.
Bargain Bin – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($5,000) There isn’t a strong sub-$4k bargain play for Penn State, so we’ll roll with KLS here who finished second in targets (8) vs. Purdue, and found the end-zone. Penn State’s top three at receiver are well-established at this point, with no other wideout seeing the field more than 26% of the time.
Pivot Play – RB Nicholas Singleton ($6,000) The game plan coming into the Purdue matchup was to establish the run. It did not work for most of the night. But reading previews of this game, it sounds as though that will be Penn State’s mindset coming into the weekend – get the ground game rolling. I’d put good money on the 5-star freshman scoring his first touchdown in front of the home crowd on Saturday. Just a matter of how much run he gets with a three-headed backfield.
Best of the Rest – QB Sean Clifford ($7,300) Conventional wisdom would suggest that Penn State should find success running the football against an inferior opponent and not need to throw it 41 times like they did last week. I think that will be the game plan again this week to attempt at establishing the run and limit Clifford’s drop-backs as he did not come out of the Purdue game fully healthy. Penn State writers are already talking about how much time Drew Allar will play in this game so I’d probably steer clear of Clifford.
Injury Notes – n/a
Marshall vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -20.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: ND 36 – Marshall 15.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 48% rain / 9 mph winds
Marshall:
If Notre Dame was able to limit Ohio State to just 21 points, I’d imagine they’ll be able to find quite a bit of success against an offense that is led by mediocre quarterback play and sans its best player in Rasheen Ali. We don’t have any Marshall player projected to score more than 15 fantasy points.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Tyler Buchner ($6,000) Projected at over 25 fantasy points this weekend, I’d assume we’ll see heavy ownership with Buchner because of his pricing. And the fact he’s a true dual-threat so we have a solid floor to work with. Outcome wasn’t great obviously, but I thought Buchner looked like he belonged after his first start, in primetime, at Ohio State. If we get 11 rushing attempts like last week, he’s hitting his projection.
Fade – RB Logan Diggs ($5,000) This may change as the season goes along, but Diggs was the third option in the Notre Dame backfield last Saturday. Just four rushing attempts and played only 22% of the offensive snaps. Want to see the backfield rotation playing out a bit more before investing.
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Mayer ($3,900) As expected, Mayer was the top option in the Notre Dame passing game, targeted eight times with five receptions. Very good chance Mayer has the highest ownership rate on the slate given his pricing. High floor, but Mayer never scored more than 25 fantasy points at any point last season.
Pivot Play – WR Lorenzo Styles ($5,700) Caught just one pass for 54 yards on only two targets, but our opinion hasn’t been swayed by just one game that Styles won’t be the WR1 for the Irish. Probably best-served to play Buchner naked or pair with Mayer, but this third option of pairing with Styles would see the lowest ownership.
Best of the Rest – RB Audric Estime ($3,800) The 230-pound sophomore will be the team’s top goal-line back this season and operated as the lead ball-carrier for the Irish on Saturday, with Chris Tyree ($5,800) coming in on primarily passing downs. I love Estime this week as a punt play instead of, say, a Ja’Tavion Sanders that we mentioned above. Enough QB options to downgrade at a spot and fit in Estime who has a strong chance of finding pay dirt.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: Tenn -6.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: Tenn 36.5 – Pitt 30
Weather: 82 degrees / 33% rain / 5 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Hendon Hooker ($7,800) Really nothing not to like here with Hooker considering a high game total, modest pricing and a 29-point fantasy projection this week. Josh Heupel’s offense ran the second-most offensive plays of any team in Week 1, and that was in a blowout. This was the game last year in which Hooker took control of the starting job for the Vols, throwing for 188 yards and two touchdowns.
Fade – RB Jaylen Wright ($5,200) The Panthers were unusually leaky against the run vs. West Virginia last Thursday, allowing 190 total yards on the ground on 5.76 yards per carry. That kind of defensive performance is a rarity for a Pat Narduzzi-led group that has finished inside the top 15 in run defense each of the last three seasons. Wright had a big day with 88 yards and a score but much of that came in the second half with the game already in hand. Won’t be the case this week.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Jabari Small ($6,700) Quiet day from Small last week with 67 rushing yards and a touchdown. Wasn’t needed in the second half as the Vols got a look at some of the younger options in the backfield. Much of the focus will be geared towards the passing game Saturday, but with many beat writers projecting Tennessee to surpass or come close to 40-points in this game, that just means plenty of scoring opportunities which Small can take advantage of.
Best of the Rest – Cedric Tillman ($7,300) was caught in the crosshairs of the down week for CFF WR1s, but was simply a case that he wasn’t needed in the blowout. Tennessee doesn’t have much proven depth beyond him and Jalin Hyatt ($6,200), and the backups saw significant time vs. Ball State. I’m not on team Bru McCoy ($5,300) but the stats don’t lie. He saw just as many offensive snaps as both Tillman and Hyatt, meaning he’s solidly in the top three at receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – QB Kedon Slovis ($6,800) Far from a quarterback I’m looking to jam in my lineups, but we have a high game total with Pitt projected to score at least four touchdowns against the Vols. Why Slovis? There is no Jordan Addison this year as Slovis completed passes to seven different receivers against West Virginia. With Pittsburgh being a near-touchdown underdog, and question marks in the Panthers’ backfield, there are reasons to roster Slovis potentially this week.
Fade – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($3,600) What in the world happened last weekend for a projected top 10 tight end in CFF? Just one target for nine yards. Snap counts are fine so Bartholomew was on the field, but looks like he ran a receiving route just 43% of the time. Think we just have to fade until shown otherwise as Pitt does have a new offensive coordinator.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Izzy Abanikanda ($5,000) Sometimes football is all about opportunities. Abanikanda looked on the verge of being replaced as the RB1 last week after averaging just 1.6 yards per carry, but will get another crack at the job with Rodney Hammond being questionable. We have Hammond projected at 15.7 points this week, so if that is Izzy getting that workload against the Vols, he’s at least in play at this price.
Best of the Rest – There is no Jordan Addison but Pitt looks to have a solidified top three at the top with Jared Wayne ($6,200), Konata Mumpfield ($7,500) and Bub Means ($5,200) who combined for 18 of the 23 total team targets last week. Wayne played significantly more than the other two, on the field for 58 of the 62 offensive snaps, nearly doubling the amount for Means.
Injury Notes – Rodney Hammond ($5,900) Listed as questionable this week after leaving the West Virginia game due to injury, Hammond doesn’t appear likely to play based on Pat Narduzzi’s comments that we’ll see third-stringer Vincent Davis more this week. If Hammond does suit up, those comments feel like a good indicator that he won’t be at 100% anyways.
Appalachian State vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -19.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: A&M 37 – App State 17.5
Weather: 92 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Appalachian State:
Top Play(s) – WR Dashaun Davis ($3,800) Tough to believe that we’re fading most of Appalachian State after scoring 61 points a week ago, but the numbers are the numbers. Just 17.5 implied score this week as the Mountaineers go on the road against a top 10 defense nationally. This passing game was very spread out last week as 4-5 different receivers got in on the action, but it was Davis who was target seven times, resulting in six catches and a touchdown.
Fade – RB Nate Noel ($5,900) We’re essentially fading the entire Appalachian State backfield, but definitely will with Noel at his pricing. A&M held Sam Houston State to under four yards a carry in Week 1 and some enormous size and depth along their defensive front. They’re also expected to get starter McKinnley Jackson at defensive tackle. Noel and Peoples split offensive snaps 50-50 last week.
Bargain Bin – WR Kaedin Robinson ($3,300) Tied for second on the team last week with six targets. Resulted in just two receptions, but did find the end-zone. Was a distant fourth among wide receivers in terms of snaps, but was on the field 39% of the time as a rotational option.
Pivot Play – n/a
Best of the Rest – WR Christian Horn ($5,400) and WR Christian Wells ($4,600) played 72% of the offensive snaps last week, though you wouldn’t know it based on their stat-lines. Both players found the end-zone (who didn’t in that UNC matchup?), but Horn was targeted six times compared to just twice for Wells. We’re not playing QB Chase Brice ($6,200) despite his six-touchdown performance a week ago. Better options at cheaper prices.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Devon Achane ($6,800) We’re going to give this one more week before starting to worry. After one week, the Aggies run blocking grade on PFF ranks 57th out of 131 teams. Not great when playing an FCS school. One the positive side, Achane did come out of the game with 19 touches (18 carries) with very little rotation in the backfield. Because of pricing and opponent, Achane is going to be another popular play this week in DFS.
Fade – WR Chase Lane ($6,000) Not to totally diminish a player, but when you’re in the starting lineup essentially because the coaches trust you on the field by running precise routes and run blocking, that doesn’t always equate to fantasy success. And really didn’t for Lane last week with two receptions, despite playing two-thirds of the offensive snaps. Invest in the other A&M receivers.
Bargain Bin – WR Yulkeith Brown ($3,000) If A&M struggles to run the ball again, expect more of Brown on the field as he enters the game on 4-wide sets. Caught a 66-yard touchdown pass vs. Sam Houston State.
Pivot Play – QB Haynes King ($8,700) With everyone on Achane last week, and likely this week again, King should get some looks as a pivot play in case the Aggies struggle again to run the football with any consistency. Threw for 364 yards on 31 attempts, and really pushed the ball downfield with his speedy set of receivers – aDOT of 13.1. Should find success against an Appalachian State secondary that is short on experience and was carved up by Drake Maye last weekend.
Best of the Rest – WR Ainias Smith ($7,200) is the team’s WR1, but I love the discount you get if pivoting to 5-star WR Evan Stewart ($5,200) at $2k cheaper. Both were integral parts of the passing game last week with nine targets a piece. You will run the risk of higher ownership for Stewart in GPPs given the pricing.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington State vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -17.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Wisc 33.5 – WSU 16
Weather: 72 degrees / 29% rain / 6 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB Cam Ward ($4,900) I truly think we just eliminate Ward from the player pool so we’re not even tempted to consider him at his extremely low pricing. I’m not sure how we can consider him after failing to impress last week at home vs. an FCS team. That said, this is an offensive scheme that has averaged 46.7 passing attempts per game over the last three seasons. You give me a QB with that sort of volume and pricing, you’re locking that player into your lineup every single opportunity. Tempting…
Fade – RB Nakia Watson ($4,500) Nakia Watson is not running on Wisconsin. Simply put. Some motivation on Watson’s part being a former Badger castoff, and he did show well in the opener with 116 yards on 18 attempts. No other running back had more than a single carry, so volume should be there. But do you honestly believe Washington State is capable of running consistently on the Badgers?
Bargain Bin – WR Donovan Ollie ($3,800) The surprising part of Wazzu’s struggles last week were that this is, on the surface, a pretty talented receiving corps. Good news for us moving forward is that the WR rotations were pretty tight Week 1 with Ollie, Renard Bell and De’Zhaun Stribling getting 70% of the offensive snaps. Ollie has our highest projection of the Washington State receivers, but was second in terms of targets vs. Idaho with eight.
Pivot Play – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($5,000) Prefacing by saying we’re likely fading the entire Wazzu offense this week with an implied total of just 16, but Stribling was targeted 10 times last week, resulting in seven receptions. Even if we fade Ward, I think there is a chance the WRs possess some value because of this high-volume passing scheme. Particularly on DK in PPR scoring.
Best of the Rest – WR Renard Bell ($4,100) and WR Lincoln Victor ($3,200) will share time in the slot, and combined for 13 targets in Week 1.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin:
Simply have to bite the bullet here and roster RB Braelon Allen ($7,000) and his chalky ownership this week, because no way he should be listed at $7K in a favorable matchup. And with regards to the rest of the Wisconsin options, I’ll let Metallica handle that. “NOTHING ELSE MATTERS.”
Colorado vs. Air Force
Point-Spread: AF -17.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: AF 33.5 – Colorado 16
Weather: 74 degrees / 38% rain / 12 mph winds
Colorado:
General rule of thumb for the season. If Colorado is included on the main slate, don’t expect a write-up. Ignore everyone. We all have more important things to do with our lives than analyze this dumpster fire.
Air Force:
There isn’t a ton to glean from Air Force’s 48-17 blowout over Northern Iowa last weekend. At least nothing that can be useful to use this week in DFS. Snap counts are spread all across the board, aside from starting QB Haaziq Daniels ($5,900). Scored 28 fantasy points with over 200 total yards from scrimmage and two scores, though his production is anything but consistent. Scored 27 Fpts or more just four times in 12 games in 2021. FB Brad Roberts ($6,500) being healthy was a pleasant surprise after rushing for 100 yards and a touchdown on eight attempts. There were quotes from the staff over the offseason that he’d miss time at the onset of the year, but clearly turned out not to be the case. Do worry about his rushing volume in 2022, because his 299 attempts last season were a statistical outlier. Air Force had five rushing touchdowns spread across five different rushers last week. Tough to invest in a receiver for a team that threw just six passes last week, and won’t average more than 12 per game on the year. But Dane Kinamon ($4,200) had a monster Week 1 with 150 total yards of offense and a pair of TDs. Dating back to last season, that’s now consecutive games in which an Air Force receiver has scored 30 fantasy points.
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -3.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: Iowa 21.5 – Iowa St 18
Weather: 83 degrees / 14% rain / 9 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – RB Jirehl Brock ($4,300) Listing Brock here over Hunter Dekkers because of the depth at their respective positions in this slate. Mike Wright (Vandy) is just $300 more than Dekkers with a significantly higher implied team total. Difficult matchup for Brock against a top 10 defense in Iowa, but garnered 50% of the market share in the Cyclones backfield in Week 1, and performed well with 104 yards and a score. Tough to see where anyone else gets significant run in this important matchup outside of Brock.
Fade – Anyone outside the Fantastic Four. We have Iowa State projected to score 73.1 fantasy points this weekend as a team. 80.2% of that total comes from four players – Hunter Dekkers, Jirehl Brock, Jaylin Noel and Xavier Hutchinson. Would not consider anyone outside of that group.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaylin Noel ($4,200) Everything with Noel comes within five yards of the line of scrimmage seemingly with a 2.3 aDOT and 0.93 yards per route run in the opener. But in a full-point PPR setting, Noel still has some worth, as he was targeted eight times in Week 1. One of our season-long predictions seems to be coming true in that the loss of Charlie Kolar and no apparent heir at tight end will result in more targets for Noel in 2022.
Pivot Play – QB Hunter Dekkers ($5,100) I’ll throw this selection in the bucket with Cam Ward, though I have more confidence in the Iowa State offense scoring than Washington State does this weekend. Dekkers was masterful last Saturday, completing 81 % of his passes for 293 yards and four touchdowns. Expect to see Dekkers tuck it and run more this week as an above-average athlete at the quarterback position. If Dekkers gets you the 20 fantasy points we project at $5,100, that’s a worthwhile punt play in the Sflex.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Hutchinson ($5,800) One of the best performances in college football last weekend with Hutchinson who posted 8-128-3 on 10 targets. How much can Iowa State score is the big question with Hutchinson because we need a TD out of him to reach/surpass value. His 25% target share the last two seasons is a big plus as ‘the’ primary option in the Iowa State passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa:
Who are you realistically starting here? Honest question. Iowa is going to score 21 points on special teams and field position. Big question is whether RB1 Gavin Williams ($4,900) will play Saturday or not after missing last week due to injury. According to HC Kirk Ferentz, the chances of that happening are likely. That boosts the run game, but it wasn’t as if Leshon Williams ($4,900) was the issue either. The Hawkeyes’ offensive line did not perform up to par in 2021, and it doesn’t appear to be much better through one week. Despite facing FCS competition, Iowa ranks 126th in Pro Football Focus run blocking grades. Gavin Williams or bust here. Just light your hard-earned dollars on fire if you invest in the Iowa passing attack.
Houston vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: Tx Tech -2.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Tx Tech 33 – Hou 30.5
Weather: Dome
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Clayton Tune ($6,500) Probably the most mis-priced option beyond Braelon Allen this week. Was a slow start last week for the Houston passing game, but Tune played well over the course of the game, completing 69% of his throws with four total touchdowns. Coming back from injury last season, also good to see his 15 rushing attempts which adds to his value. Texas Tech allowed Murray State to complete multiple throws of 50 or more yards, so the Raiders secondary might be leaky.
Fade – Houston RBs With just two starters returning along the offensive line, the running game could be worrisome down the road. Saturday did nothing to alleviate said concerns with Houston averaging just 3.18 yards per carry, and Tune led the ground attack with 51 yards. Ta’Zhawn Henry missed most of the game due to injury but is expected back. Brandon Campbell did see 15 carries in relief, but we’ll see how the dynamic changes with both RBs available.
Bargain Bin – WR Matthew Golden ($4,300) We were hoping for more production out of the 4-star freshman who finished with just two receptions on five targets. But promising signs for future production with a 16.4 aDOT and was on the field for 65% of Houston’s offensive snaps. Golden will break out one of these weeks, just a matter of when.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Manjack IV ($4,200) Our projections do have Manjack ahead of Golden, but that is really only due to the former USC transfer scoring a touchdown vs. UTSA. Golden did out-target Manjack and was on the field substantially more – Manjack was actually fourth in snaps among Houston wide receivers. That said, still managed to convert on all three of his targets, and had a beautiful one-handed snag in the end-zone.
Best of the Rest – TE Christian Trahan ($3,700) accumulated three targets for minimal yardage but played 73 of the possible 81 total offensive snaps. Crazy to think we made it this far and this is the first time mentioning WR Nathaniel Dell ($6,000) who’s connection with Tune is alive and well after catching two touchdowns in the opener. That said, our season-long concerns about Dell reaching last year’s totals are still alive. Houston simply has more options than just Dell in the passing game this season to where it’ll be difficult to match his 30% target share.
Injury Notes – RB Ta’Zhawn Henry expected to play.
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Donovan Smith ($7,700) With Shough now reportedly out 2-3 weeks, according to head coach Joey McGuire, the Red Raiders will turn to backup Donovan Smith who has done nothing but impress in his brief appearances as the starting quarterback. In relief on Saturday, the 6-foot-5 sophomore made easy work of the Murray State defense with more touchdown passes (4) than incompletions (2). Despite blowing out Murray State, Tech’s 75% neutral game pass rate shows exactly what we’re in for again with a Zach Kittley-led offense.
Fade – RBs See above on the neutral game pass rate stat. Tech will rotate Sa’Rodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks, and neither are cheap enough to consider.
Bargain Bin – WR Jerand Bradley ($5,000) Along with Michael Mayer, Bradley is going to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate after leading Tech with 6-108-2 on a team-high seven targets. We all remember how good Mitchell Tinsley was as the secondary option to Jerreth Sterns last season, and Bradley may up as the top target if he continues his play. His name was popping up in camp reports all of August and that transpired to the field.
Pivot Play – WR Myles Price ($7,000) This is an easy one. Sure, we can have the debate of talent vs. system. But fact remains that three of the last four WR1s under Zach Kittley have come from the slot position, and has one of the highest target shares (33.1%) in the country in that span. Price plays in the slot. Maybe not Jerreth Sterns-like numbers, but we expect a bounce back performance from Price.
Best of the Rest – WR Loic Fouonji ($6,000) Two Tech receivers is probably optimal, but don’t have a huge issue if you want to nab all three in a game stack lineup. You saw what UTSA did last week against this Houston secondary with multiple receivers topping 100 yards. And Tech is going to throw the football no matter the score because that’s how this system operates.
Injury Notes – QB Tyler Shough expected to be out 2-3 weeks.
Virginia vs. Illinois
Point-Spread: Illinois -4.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Illinois 31 – UVA 26.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 86% rain / 10 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Brennan Armstrong ($6,300) I don’t want to say auto-start, but if you get a quarterback at $6,300 projected to score 28 fantasy points, you’re locking him in a good chunk of lineups if playing multi-entry. The philosophical shift on offense for UVA was noticeable Week 1 but Armstrong still managed to produce 351 yards of total offense and three scores. Volume was close to what we saw last year despite a lopsided victory with 30+ pass attempts and 10 carries (only four designed runs).
Fade – WR Billy Kemp ($4,200) A lower-volume passing game + Lavel Davis back in the lineup means less opportunities for Kemp. Caught all three of his targets for minimal yardage, and only played 52% of the offensive snaps. He’s the fourth option in the passing game when everyone is healthy.
Bargain Bin – WR Lavel Davis Jr. ($3,500) Played 61 of the 79 available snaps last Saturday, and was tied for second on the team with six targets, finding the end-zone once. The 6-foot-7 receiver is still the big-play threat we saw in 2020, averaging 22.3 yards per catch and an aDOT of 13.8 which is tops on the team.
Pivot Play – RB Perris Jones ($5,600) Which Illinois run defense are we seeing on Saturday. The one that limited Indiana to under two yards a carry? Or the one that allowed nearly six yards a carry in Week 1 to Wyoming. Strong lean is towards the latter, and we’ll see Virginia forced to throw the ball more than they’d like on Saturday. The offseason remarks from the new coaching staff regarding an enhanced effort to run the football came true as Jones rushed for 104 yards on 19 carries. A Virginia running back scored double-digit fantasy points just four times last season.
Best of the Rest – WR Dontayvian Wicks ($6,300) seems to have maintained his WR1 status as he was targeted more the double (12) the amount of times as any other UVA receiver. A drop and an fumble limited his day from a production standpoint.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Chase Brown ($6,400) and WR Isaiah Williams ($7,100) 57% volume share of the Illinois carries and projected at over 23 fantasy points for Chase Brown who’s taken on the workhorse role with Josh McCray out. UVA struggled to stop the Richmond run game last week, allowing 170 yards as a team, at 4.86 yards per carry. Williams is in rare territory through two games with 34% target share for the Illini. Just one other player on the team has accounted for double-digit targets. Nobody else deserves consideration on the roster.
