Central Florida @ Louisville
Point-Spread: UCF -7
O/U Total: 67.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 24% rain / 4 mph winds
UCF:
Fun game on tap here with two teams in the top 25 nationally in plays run per game, with the Knights sitting at No. 4. Gus Malzahn has tweaked the offensive scheme but the ability to move up and down the field at a blistering pace remains the same as we’ve seen the last few seasons. That means more of the same from Dillon Gabriel who is 12th in the country in passing yards per game through two weeks. Still a significant drop off from what we saw last year, both in yardage and attempts per game, but clearly still one of the best fantasy producers at the position. Because of the way the salaries are structured at the other positions, I don’t see a way in which we don’t roster Gabriel on Friday for a winning lineup. Yes, I’ll use the forbidden word…lock. Louisville is allowing a 68 percent completion rate through two games.
Could feasibly find a way to fit all three UCF receivers in our lineups, but I’m probably rostering at least two. Best part about this decision is three receivers has clearly established themselves as the top group with Jaylon Robinson and Brandon Johnson starting outside, with Ryan O’Keefe manning the slot. Against Bethune-Cookman, even in a blowout win, Robinson played in 55 of the 57 total snaps while Johnson was in for the entire contest. This meshes with what we saw in Week 1, and should be the expectation moving forward. Of the three starting cornerbacks for Louisville, Chandler Jones grades out well below standards with a 48.6 coverage grade. Looks like he starts out wide so Johnson or Robinson will likely be matched up with him.
Overall rushing numbers for the Louisville defense are only marginally better, allowing 4.35 yards per carry after holding Eastern Kentucky to 86 total yards on 22 attempts. Digging deeper, the Cardinals rank 102nd in defensive rush play success rate and 99th in second level yards so not only are they getting gashed on the ground but giving up big plays in the process. Probably makes Isaiah Bowser a near lock as well, not only given the matchup, but the Northwestern transfer is dominating the rushing distribution with 44 of the team’s 78 carries. No other running back has more than 11 attempts on the year. No need for Bargain Bin options with UCF with the fantasy production being mostly centralized between the five players listed above.
Louisville:
Louisville fans and administration are not pleased with how the program looks currently, dating back to last season with Scott Satterfield bumbling quotes to the media, to their mediocre start in 2021 despite blowing out Eastern Kentucky last weekend. Satterfield’s bread and butter, the running game, has not produced the necessary results through two weeks, averaging just 4.06 YPC. Good enough for some, but not a team in Louisville with an average quarterback and dreadful defense. The Cardinals offensive line is getting much of the heat, but it appears to be a collective issue as that group ranks 70th in PFF run blocking grades, 12th in rush play PPA and 41st in line yards created. Not great, but its not solely on the five guys blocking.
Jalen Mitchell remains the starter for now, and got the bulk of the work last week with 90 rushing yards on 18 carries and no other running back seeing more than five attempts. Mitchell sits either third or fourth for me of the available options facing a UCF run defense that is currently No. 1 in the nation, allowing just 22 yards per game on the ground. As I hinted at with UCF, there really isn’t a need in this slate for a min priced player, but if you want to go extreme contrarian for a GPP play (an admitted risk), highly-touted FR Trevion Cooley would be the player to look at. Beat writer has hinted the last two weeks now that Cooley should get more carries as the season moves along, and the Louisville offense clearly needs a jumpstart. No promises that happens this week, or at all, but a situation to watch.
Still a TON of questions left to be answered with the Louisville WR corps having to replace Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick. Doesn’t seem like the wideouts are getting much separation at all, and the staff is using between 7-8 receivers intermittently in each of the first two weeks. FR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce saw extended work vs. Eastern Kentucky and could be in the mix for more playing time moving forward as he led the team with 5-153-0 on seven targets, including a 94-yarder that surprisingly didn’t result in a touchdown. If looking for the cheap play on the slate, Huggins-Bruce is the play. In order, my preferred Louisville WR plays this week outside of Huggins-Bruce would be: Josh Johnson -> Braden Smith -> Jordan Watkins -> Justin Marshall -> Tyler Harrell. Tight end Marshon Ford had just one target last week, but still played 73 percent of the snaps, and leads all Louisville skill position players not named Malik Cunningham in that category.
Game-script will favor Cunningham this week with Louisville likely coming from behind, and the struggles along the offensive line as a run blocking unit are resulting in more rushing attempts from the junior quarterback. I view him as the third-best option of the available QBs on this slate, but will be included in a number of lineups given his dual-threat abilities and implied team total of 30.
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