Indiana State vs. Indiana
- Point-Spread: n/a
- O/U Total: n/a
- Implied Score: n/a
- Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Indiana State:
Could’ve had an enjoyable 3-gamer on DraftKings featuring five power conference schools but instead must put up with this FCS nonsense. The Sycamores are 2-0 head into this in-state matchup, averaging 39.5 points across two games. General rule is to not play any FCS quarterbacks in DFS and it looks like Indiana State has played multiple QBs already so we’re out there. RB Plez Lawrence ($3,000) should lead the backfield, already having rushed for three touchdowns this year, including a 146-yard performance against McKendree College in the opener. We’d have a bit more interest if Lawrence hadn’t averaged 1.0 yards per carry vs. Eastern Illinois last week.
Three possible options in the passing game in starting WRs Rashad Rochelle ($4,700), WR Larry Stephens ($3,400) and TE Lance Rees ($4,000). That trio has combined for 65% of the targets and 54% of the receiving production. Rochelle and Stephens do have FBS experience, transferring over from Rutgers and Toledo, respectively.
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($7,600) Bounce back performance from Sarratt in Week 2 after a pedestrian opener (for his standards), catching nine passes for 97 yards and three scores on 13 targets – more than triple the amount of the next closest Indiana receiver. We’d be concerned about blowout potential limiting Sarratt’s production, but the Hoosiers won 56-9 last week when the WR1 had three touchdowns.
Fade – WR Jonathan Brady ($5,300) Steep price to pay for what looks to be Indiana’s fourth receiving option. The Cal transfer has been targeted four times in two games but is only playing 26% of the team’s snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Charlie Becker ($3,200) The fifth receiver option in the rotation behind Brady at a significantly lesser cost. The 6-foot-4 freshman caught a touchdown on two receptions last week vs. Kennesaw.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($6,100) No surprises so far this year when it comes to the Indiana running game. It was a committee last year, and it is again in 2025. The only difference, and a big one at that, is that this is a 3-way split as opposed to a 2-way split last season. Hemby leads the way in yards and carries and is the starter so he gets top billing over RB Lee Beebe Jr. ($5,100) and RB Kaelon Black ($5,400). If you want to pivot from Hemby, Black is the secondary RB option over Beebe as he holds a 12-4 advantage in red zone rushing attempts. Get at least one Indiana running back in each of your lineups.
Best of the Rest – QB Fernando Mendoza ($7,600) There are several QBs on the slate with a higher projection but would argue Mendoza is the highest floor option among them given the matchup and the system. WR Omar Cooper Jr. ($6,300) and EJ Williams ($5,800) are second and third, respectively, in snaps played among Indiana wideouts this season, but Williams has been the more productive of the two with eight receptions on 11 targets, double the amount of Cooper. Stacking Indiana running backs makes some sense on this slate, but would limit any lineup to one Hoosier receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colgate vs. Syracuse
- Point-Spread: n/a
- O/U Total: n/a
- Implied Score: n/a
- Weather: Dome
Colgate:
Same rules apply here that they do with Indiana State above. We’re out on any FCS quarterback as a potential option. Colgate is averaging just 4.6 yards a carry in two games, with four players getting between 10-18 carries, so we’re looking at a committee. The name to know here is WR Treyvhon Saunders ($5,100) who is commanding an insane 52% of the team’s target share with 60% of the team’s receiving production. If he’s got more eligibility after this year, we’ll be watching Saunders at the FBS level a year from now at this rate. The WR2 looks to be Winston Moore ($4,300), who is second in targets and routes run.
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Nixon ($4,600) Nixon jumps to the front of the line with the news that Yasin Willis will not play on Friday, announced by head coach Fran Brown. There is a significant lack of experience in the Syracuse backfield, with just two carries having gone to running backs not named Willis or Nixon. Barring a surprise, Nixon should get the bulk of the work on Friday.
Fade – TE Jamie Tremble ($3,800) The one player on Cuse that isn’t min salary $3k that you can’t play. Just one target in two games and didn’t play at all against UConn last week.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyshawn Russell ($4,400) The South Carolina transfer has rotated in the slot when Johntay Cook is not in the game and has been targeted 11 times in two games – impressive as the considered WR4. Based on projections, Syracuse has a 99% chance to win this matchup with Colgate, so expect to see plenty of reps for the freshman, including WR Jaylan Hornsby ($3,000) and RB Malachi James ($3,000) who should slot in as RB2 now behind Will Nixon.
Pivot Play – TE Dan Villari ($5,200) All the talk in the offseason was about who would become WR1 for the Orange. Turns out maybe the tight end is WR1? 15 targets over his first two games, while hitting 100+ yards in the win over Connecticut. The usage so far is very Oronde Gadsden-like.
Best of the Rest – QB Steve Angeli ($7,400) Turns out we’re going to be seeing the same Syracuse offense that we did a year ago, in that the Orange are already third in the country in pass play rate, averaging 47 attempts per game. The lone hesitation to not playing Angeli on the slate is that there’s some indication we’re going to see backup Rickie Collins at some point. Is that rotation, or just in garbage time? Pick your poison between receivers Darrell Gill Jr. ($6,800), Johntay Cook ($6,500) and Justus Ross-Simmons ($5,900). Syracuse doesn’t seem like it has “a guy” this season like they did in 2024 with Trebor Pena or Jackson Meeks.
Injury Notes – RB Yasin Willis (out)
Colorado vs. Houston
- Point-Spread: Hou -5.5
- O/U Total: 44.5
- Implied Score: Hou 25 – Col 19.5
- Weather: 89 degrees / 2% rain / 8 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Sincere Brown ($4,100) This game absolutely reeks from a fantasy standpoint, and you’re probably better off fading both teams involved in this matchup. Brown got the start in place of the injured Omarion Miller, who doesn’t sound like he’ll play on Friday, and converted on all four of his targets for 120 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Staub starting would benefit the receivers.
Fade – QBs. Ryan Staub probably gets the start. Kaidon Salter likely sees the field in some capacity, potentially as just a running option. And JuJu Lewis cannot get on the field over two middling options. This is a mess.
Bargain Bin – RB DeKalon Taylor ($3,400) Time to get Taylor more snaps, Deion. The Incarnate Word transfer rushed for 43 yards on just six attempts last week against Delaware and has been a major factor in the passing game with a receiving touchdown in both games to start the year. Taylor is an option regardless of Dallan Hayden’s status but boosted even more if Hayden is out.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Williams ($5,600) The Tulsa transfer is second on the team in routes run and tied for the team lead in targets, after catching four passes on seven targets vs. Delaware last week. Omarion Miller’s injury opens the door for the rest of the Colorado receivers to be more involved.
Best of the Rest – WR Drelon Miller ($4,800) Minimal production for Miller with just 14 receiving yards on three receptions but does lead the team in targets (9) and routes run. They’re targeting Miller down the field and would need just one big play to hit value, with an aDOT of 16.7 yards.
Injury Notes – RB Dallan Hayden (probable), WR Omarion Miller (questionable)
Houston:
Top Play(s) – RB Dean Connors ($5,700) The Rice transfer vaulted to the RB1 spot with multiple injuries to the running back position already for Houston. Connors got the bulk of the carries vs. his former team last week, rushing for 132 yards and two touchdowns in the win. We still haven’t seen Connors best attribute being utilized yet this season either, with just four receiving yards on four receptions. There’s multiple pathways to Connors hitting value this week both as a runner and pass-catcher. After two games, Colorado is 125th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Conner Weigman ($6,400) Houston is 104th in pass yards per game and this is not a matchup that is going to be a back-and-forth shootout.
Bargain Bin – WR Amare Thomas ($4,700) Thomas is the lowest I would go salary-wise among the Houston options. Second on the team in targets, receptions and routes run. Maximum one Houston pass-catcher per lineup, but preferably…none.
Pivot Play – TE Tanner Koziol ($6,400) So apparently the G5 to P4 transfer can work for some. The Ball State transfer is essentially Houston’s WR1, with 13 receptions and 115 yards on 14 targets this season, double the amount of the next closest Houston pass-catcher.
Best of the Rest – WR Stephon Johnson ($5,500) Johnson is second on the team in receiving yards (74) but all of that came on one catch. Houston is 110th nationally in pass play rate, so the receivers are not of much interest here.
Injury Notes – RB Re’Shaun Sanford (Out)
Kansas State vs. Arizona
- Point-Spread: KSU -1.5
- O/U Total: 54.5
- Implied Score: KSU 28 – Ari 26.5
- Weather: 91 degrees / 4% rain / 11 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayce Brown ($6,600) Second-best receiver on the slate behind Sarratt that I’d try to fit in most lineups. Team leader in targets (29) and receptions (19), and Brown’s value is boosted now with WR2 Jerand Bradley out for a few weeks due to injury. Kansas State’s inability to run the football effectively has forced the Wildcats to throw more than usual, resulting in boosted production for the receivers.
Fade – RB Joe Jackson ($4,000) Kansas State needs Dylan Edwards back in the worst say. The Wildcats are 108th in rush success rate, and Jackson seems on the verge of losing his starting gig to other options.
Bargain Bin – WR Adonis Moise ($3,000) Moise was the Jerand Bradley replacement in Week 2 following the injury, playing 51% of the snaps with two targets vs. Army. TE Garrett Oakley ($4,500) likely sees an enhanced role in the passing game down a starting receiver. Oakley is fourth in targets (10).
Pivot Play – WR Jaron Tibbs ($4,900) I don’t hate the idea of stacking Brown and Tibbs together in the same lineup or playing Tibbs solo. The Purdue transfer was the team’s most effective receiver against Army with 5-61-1 on six targets and isn’t far behind Jayce Brown in most receiving categories. Kansas State is averaging about four more pass attempts per game than they did in 2024.
Best of the Rest – QB Avery Johnson ($7,600) The pass defense has been excellent for Arizona, ranked 6th in success rate and giving up just 4.0 FPPG to opposing QBs. A conference matchup on the road for a struggling team doesn’t feel like a spot you’d want to roster Johnson as your QB, but this offense is forced to rely on him with no semblance of a running game right now.
Injury Notes – RB Dylan Edwards (probable), WR Jerand Bradley (out)
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – RB Quincy Craig ($3,500) Kedrick Reescano’s health status will be one of the big storylines to monitor for the slate. HC Brent Brennan didn’t have an update as of 9/8 and haven’t seen anything after that. RB Ismail Mahdi ($4,800) still has the higher projection for us, but strictly because we’ve seen what he can do at the collegiate level, rushing for over 2,200 yards the last two seasons at Texas State. But against Weber State, it was actually Craig that got the start and has nearly double the amount of rushing yards than Mahdi for the season. The Wildcats are 94th in rush yards allowed per game defensively, but that stat is a tad misleading. Each of K-State’s first three opponents averaged less than four yards a carry.
Fade – WR Kris Hutson ($6,100) Hutson did start in Week 2 vs. Weber State but played just 12 offensive snaps and caught two passes. It doesn’t make any sense whatsoever to spend up for an Arizona receiver if the staff is playing 9-10 (yes that many) receivers each week.
Bargain Bin – See Top Play above.
Pivot Play – WR Javin Whatley ($5,000) or WR Chris Hunter ($5,100) I have no shame in admitting I don’t have a clue what to do with Arizona receivers. 11 different receivers saw playing time against Weber State. So, in that situation we tend to lean on recency bias, and what you did for me lately. After barely playing in Week 1, Hunter was on the field for 70% of snaps in Week 2, finishing with a couple or receptions. Whatley had the breakout with 168 yards and two scores on five receptions.
Best of the Rest – QB Noah Fifita ($7,100) Fifita is probably the fifth option behind the top group at QB, but he’s literally the one Arizona player on offense that we know is going to have the ball in his hands. We cannot say the same about any other offensive position. Fifita has taken to the new offensive system, throwing for 534 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions in two games played. Meanwhile, K-State’s defense is giving up 26 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks in three games.
Injury Notes – RB Kedrick Reescano (questionable), TE Keyan Burnett (questionable)
New Mexico vs. UCLA
- Point-Spread: UCLA -16.5
- O/U Total: 53.5
- Implied Score: UCLA 35 – NM 18.5
- Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
New Mexico:
Top Play(s) – TE Dorian Thomas ($5,700) The former Arizona transfer has double the number of targets (20) and receptions (15) as the next closest Lobo pass-catcher. And we’ve seen Thomas get it done against P4 competition already, hauling in 10 passes on 13 targets and two touchdowns vs. Michigan in the opener. There shouldn’t be any hesitation to roster Thomas just because this is against a P4 defense.
Fade – QB Jack Layne ($5,000) There’s four options at QB on the slate – Iamaleava, Angeli, Mendoza and Johnson. Layne is a non-runner with just a 12-point projection this week. The matchup isn’t the worst, though, as UCLA has allowed 29 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks through two games. He’s a distant option compared to that top group of QBs.
Bargain Bin – WR Michael Buckley ($3,900) or WR Zhaiel Smith ($3,000) Not much production to speak of when it comes to these two players – seven combined receptions on 16 targets. But they’re on the field a bunch, playing over 80% of the team’s snaps. Smith is eliminated from contention if Keagan Johnson is available.
Pivot Play – RB Scottre Humphrey ($6,400) It’s clear that Humphrey will be the focal point of the New Mexico offense in 2025 (along with Thomas), as he rushed for 141 yards and two scores on 18 attempts vs. Idaho State last week. UCLA’s run defense has been leaky in the early going too, ranked 128th in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Keagan Johnson ($6,200) The projected WR1 from Kansas State has dealt with multiple injuries of late, missing portions of fall camp and then did not play in the second half against Idaho State due to an injury. We’ll be watching his status in pregame.
Injury Notes – WR Keagan Johnson (Out)
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – QB Nico Iamaleava ($7,800) It feels dirty touting Iamaleava as the top fantasy option for the Bruins, but the usage of his legs is a major reason why. 144 yards on 18 attempts leads the team currently. New Mexico’s offense has been just good enough this season too, to where UCLA will have to put up points as we saw against Michigan where it was a four-quarter affair.
Fade – WR Jaedon Wilson ($4,600) Zero targets on nine total snaps played this season for the Arkansas transfer, who didn’t see the field vs. UNLV. UCLA has hardly rotated in any backups at receiver thus far.
Bargain Bin – RB Anthony Woods ($3,500) One constant that offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri has brought over with him from Indiana is the deployment of a committee backfield, with all three of Woods, Jaivian Thomas and Jalen Berger getting equal run. In his case, we’ll lean towards the cheapest of the three options in Woods, a former Utah transfer, who looked good against UNLV with 40 yards on eight attempts. New Mexico is currently 101st in yards allowed per game on the ground, giving up over 200+ yards in the opener against Michigan.
Pivot Play – WR Kwazi Gilmer ($7,000) Gilmer’s lack of production compared to preseason expectation has been through no fault of his own, but on the guy throwing him the ball. The sophomore receiver racked up eight receptions on 10 targets against UNLV in the comeback attempt last week and now leads the team in every receiving category.
Best of the Rest – WR Mikey Matthews ($6,200) or WR Titus Mokiao-Atimalala ($5,400) Just two targets this season have gone to UCLA receivers not named Gilmer, Matthews, or Atimalala as this trio is playing over 3/4s of the team’s snaps in both games to start the year. TE Jack Pederson ($4,900) is fourth on the team in targets (7) and we’ve already seen New Mexico struggle with opposing tight ends, allowing 25 fantasy points to Michigan’s Marlin Klein in Week 1.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Will Nixon, Syracuse
- WR Jayce Brown, Kansas State
- WR Elijah Sarratt, Indiana
- An Indiana Running Back
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- WR Jayce Brown, Kansas State
- WR Kwazi Gilmer, UCLA
- QB Avery Johnson, Kansas State
- An Indiana Running Back
