Virginia vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -14.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: MD 32 – UVA 17.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Fields ($5,200) Just three UVA receivers have played more than 17 snaps this season, and that is reduced even smaller looking at the target share where Fields and fellow starter Malik Washington have combined for 30 of the 46 targets. Eight targets in each of the first two games for Fields who has been the most consistent of the bunch, and the team’s top red-zone threat at 6-foot-4.
Fade – RBs As of now, we don’t have a single UVA running back projected at more than 30 yards rushing for Friday. 3-4 backs will rotate in and out of the lineup, and the offensive line has been very poor to start the year, as they allowed 10 tackles for loss and four sacks against James Madison. Kobe Pace had a monster 75-yard touchdown reception that boosted his fantasy performance, but as a team, the Cavs rushed for 18 yards.
Bargain Bin – WR Demick Starling ($3,000) Zero receptions through two games for the sophomore, yet he’s been on the field for 63% of the team’s offensive snaps. I’m not considering anyone beyond the two top receivers for UVA, but if you’re a person that does 200 lineups, Starling can be in one.
Pivot Play – QB Anthony Colandrea ($5,200) TBD on whether Tony Muskett is back in the lineup this week, and we here at the CFFSite think they should slow-play the rehab process with how Colandrea played last week. Deemed a ‘gamer’ by the coaching staff, Colandrea combined for 377 total yards of offense and two touchdowns in the narrow loss to JMU, completing nearly 77% of his passes.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Washington ($5,300) We mentioned the target funnel above between Washington and Fields. Despite Washington leading the team in receiving yards, I still like Fields as the better play between the two. 43% of Washington’s yardage came on just one play last week, and his aDOT of 8.4 doesn’t inspire many scoring opportunities unless UVA is consistently moving the ball down the field.
Injury Notes – QB Tony Muskett ($5,200) If and when Muskett is healthy, HC Tony Elliott has stated the job will be his, as you cannot lose a starting job to injury. Can envision a scenario where both quarterbacks play, diminishing the value for both.
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($9,600) The only reason Tagovailoa gets the top spot here over Hemby is the dearth of QB options on the slate. While the rush defense has been the primary issue for UVA, the secondary hasn’t been much better, allowing 24.5 FPPG through two games and 107th in success rate vs. the pass. Baby Tua will be looking for to have a much better outing than last week, throwing for two interceptions against Charlotte.
Fade – RB Colby McDonald ($5,200) McDonald had a breakout game against the 49ers with 73 yards and a touchdown on eight carries. The question is if McDonald remains as the RB2 for this matchup or relegated back to third string. Antwain Littleton was benched for a fumble inside the five-yard line, hence the emergence of McDonald last week.
Bargain Bin – WR Tai Felton ($4,900) Felton has played more offensive snaps than any Maryland skill position player outside of Tagovailoa and has run the most routes of any receiver on the roster.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($8,500) After we saw a near 50-50 split between Hemby and Antwain Littleton in Week 1, it was the redshirt sophomore carrying the load against Charlotte with 158 yards and a TD on 19 carries. Virginia has now given up the second most fantasy points to running backs in all of college football, just one spot behind North Texas, and are 131st in rush play success rate defensively. As long as Hemby gets the bulk of the work – not always a guarantee though – he should thrive in this matchup.
Best of the Rest – Maryland Pass Catchers – Pick your poison here because they’re all expensive and there is no established WR1 (yet) amongst the group. Four different pass-catchers – Dyches, Smith Jr., Prather and Jones – all have 11 targets or more on the year so this football is being spread around. Prather, the West Virginia transplant, had a strong performance against Charlotte with 80 yards and a touchdown. He should’ve had two TDs had a phantom penalty not called one back.
Injury Notes – WR Tyrese Chambers ($6,400) The FIU transfer missed last week, though not seeing a reason as to why (as of writing on Tuesday). Chambers isn’t in the top three at WR, so probably a fade regardless of if he plays.
Army vs. UTSA
Point-Spread: UTSA -9
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: UTSA 27 – Army 18
Weather: Dome
Army:
Top Play(s) – QB Bryson Daily ($6,300) Did we really just see an Army quarterback line up in the shotgun and throw for three touchdowns last week. Your eyes do not deceive you. Because of an NCAA rule change this offseason that eliminated cut-blocking inside the tackle box, the Knights have moved away (somewhat) from the standard triple-option offense. Still very much a run-based approach, and Army has just one more pass attempt through two games this season than they did in 2022. But that increases our interest ever so slightly in the passing game components. Army is difficult to prep for, but the UTSA defense has been outstanding through two games, facing two pretty good quarterbacks as well, allowing just 14.4 FPPG.
Fade – Everyone not named Bryson Daily or Isaiah Alston. Beyond those two, the next highest projection for an Army player is 6.2 points. Ball is spread around too much to consider anyone else.
Bargain Bin – Jakobi Buchanan ($3,500) Feels like Buchanan has been in college for a decade. Based on the first two games, the Army backfield looks similar to what we’ve seen in the past where the B-Backs have essentially split the reps 50-50. Hayden Reed ($3,300) shares the spot with Buchanan. For as good as the UTSA pass defense has been, they’ve been equally as good on the ground, allowing just over 12 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Alston ($4,100) Normally, the only time we consider an Army receiver is that first Saturday in November for the Army-Navy game. But with the scheme changes, Alston is in play here at this pricing as the clear WR1 with over 40% of the target share and two of the three receiving touchdowns on the team.
Best of the Rest – n/a We have zero interest in anyone that is not listed above.
Injury Notes – n/a
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – RB Kevorian Barnes $6,600) It was a bounce back performance from the Army run defense in Week 2 after allowing nearly seven yards a carry to Louisiana-Monroe in the opener. With the UTSA starting QB potentially unavailable, Barnes instantly becomes the top option for the Roadrunners as Army currently ranks 84th in rush success rate defensively. I would say, though, that Barnes isn’t a smash play with how the UTSA OL is playing, ranking 117th in stuff rate and 88th in EPA per play when running the ball. I’d imagine the Knights will load the box if Frank Harris doesn’t play.
Fade – WR De’Corian Clark ($4,300) Man if only they listed a prop line for De’Corian Clark last week. The senior receiver apparently snuck onto the field for one snap before exiting the game as he still makes his way back from the ACL injury from last season. Clark has been ramping up reps in practice and was obviously in full pads on the sidelines if he entered the game. But how trustworthy will he be in his first game back in action, potentially with a backup QB?
Bargain Bin – TE Oscar Cardenas ($3,500) No, the passing game hasn’t been up to par to start the year, but a bit surprised Cardenas hasn’t been more involved with just five targets in two games. The senior tight end was a huge part of the game plan late in 2022 when both Clark and Zakhari Franklin were dealing with injuries. Obviously, both weren’t around the first two weeks and Cardenas still posted minimal production. Cheap enough to still have exposure.
Pivot Play – WR Tykee-Ogle Kellogg ($5,000) Don’t quote me, but I remember seeing somewhere that Ogle Kellogg, a sixth-year senior, got some things in order this offseason both on and off the field. So far, that seems to be translating to the field as he’s been targeted 14 times through two games – already more than any other season in his entire career to this point. Team-high nine targets last week vs. Texas State.
Best of the Rest – WR Joshua Cephus ($6,200) To no surprise, Cephus is the team’s leader and targets and receptions through two games. Army is allowing 21.2 FPPG to opposing WR1s through two weeks and are 65th in pass play success rate defensively. WR Willie McCoy ($3,000), a talented JUCO transfer, saw his first game action of the year with one catch on two targets and a TD. We’d like to see his role increased, potentially playing over Chris Carpenter.
Injury Notes – QB Frank Harris ($6,100) We won’t get anything this early in the week from HC Jeff Traylor on Harris’ injury status, but a toe injury could prevent him from starting on Friday. Backup Eddie Lee Marburger ($4,500) would start in Harris’ place should he be unavailable. Former 3-star recruit with P5 offers, but this offense hasn’t looked nearly the same as year’s past, whether that be injury, losing players to the transfer portal, or the third play-caller in three years.
Utah State vs. Air Force
Point-Spread: AF -10
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: AF 28 – Utah St 18
Weather: 56 degrees / 68% rain / 14 mph winds
Utah State:
Top Play(s) – WR Terrell Vaughn ($6,600) Easily the best receiver on this slate, and not particularly close. I’ve been told never be 100% on a guy in GPPs, but Vaughn is as close as it gets for Friday. Double-digit targets in each of the first two weeks for a WR1 in a system under Blake Anderson that has thrived over the last decade.
Fade – Tight Ends. Cop out answer, but Utah State tight ends have combined for two targets in two games. They’re rarely a factor in a passing scheme that runs 3- and 4-wide 90% of the time.
Bargain Bin – WR Colby Bowman ($3,700) The former Stanford transfer started in place Otto Tia last Saturday, targeted just once for 12 yards. His viability for this week depends on Tia’s status as they play the same position.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen Royals ($5,700) Vaughn gets the headlines and is dominating the target share, but Royals is second in both targets (10) and routes run among the receivers. 11.9-point projection in a game where Utah State probably has to throw more than expected makes Royals a feasible option. Generally looking at around 6.1 targets per game for the WR2 under Blake Anderson.
Best of the Rest – RBs Three-way split through the first three weeks as the coaching staff appears comfortable with the depth at running back with Robert Briggs, Davon Booth and Rahsul Faison. Because of that, we’re probably not all that interested in anyone here, facing an Air Force defense that is allowing just seven fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Utah State is far better at running the football than Idaho State and Sam Houston State, but still not a favorable matchup. QB Cooper Legas ($5,400) is probably my second-favorite QB on the slate behind Baby Tua with a 20-point projection. Not great, but he’s been efficient to start the year, completing 70% of his passes.
Injury Notes – WR Otto Tia ($3,900) Tia started Week 1 against Iowa, but did not play a single snap vs. Idaho State. Don’t see an injury tag anywhere so not sure what’s up behind the scenes.
Air Force:
Top Play(s) – Zac Larrier ($6,500) Thinking the answer is somewhere in the middle for Larrier when looking at the results of his first two starters. Was lights out against an inferior FCS team in Week 1 with three touchdowns in a 42-7 win. That was followed up by a dismal performance against Sam Houston State last week, only mustering seven fantasy points in a 13-3 victory. That said, Sam Houston State is looking to be a legitimate G5 defense, ranking 23rd in yards allowed per game through two weeks. A quarterback who gets us double-digit carries each week will always be valuable, and that should be the case again as AF is still sorting out the backfield.
Fade – WRs. Air Force has never been a high-volume passing attack, but they’re throwing the ball 50% of the time less in 2023 than they did in 2022. I’m guessing they attempt more than three passes this week, but there isn’t enough data points right now to tell us which direction those passes will be going. I’m sure there will be an Air Force pass-catcher in the winning GPP lineup on Friday because that’s DFS for ya.
Bargain Bin – RB Emmanuel Michel ($3,800) Deemed eligible by the NCAA for an extra season last week, Michel ran the ball eight times for 36 yards. Won’t pop out on the box score, but this is a fullback who averaged over five yards per carry in his career. Wouldn’t surprise us to see Michel take over the FB1 role at some point in the year.
Pivot Play – RB John Lee Eldridge ($5,000) Very disappointing start to the year for JLE and his fantasy owners, scoring a combined 11 fantasy points in two games. No, we weren’t anticipating Brad Roberts-like numbers out of Eldridge, but his audition at fullback in the offseason combined with his game-breaking speed led us to thinking he’d be more valuable than this. Seems as though his workload will be mirroring last season where he averaged around nine touches a game, and hope that he breaks a long run.
Best of the Rest – FB Owen Burk ($5,500) The ball was spread around among 6-7 different rushers in the blowout win over Robert Morris in Week 1. Did we see the true rotation last week in the competitive matchup with SHSU? Burk carried the ball 18 times for 71 yards and a TD in the win with the other two fullbacks combining for just nine attempts. Not Brad Roberts-like numbers, but Burk seems to be a cut above the rest right now. Utah State has been good against the run to begin 2023, ranking 53rd in success rate. I’d be fine with a Larrier/Burk lineup combination, but wouldn’t have too much exposure because of the Aggies’ start to the year of defending the run.
Injury Notes – n/a
