South Carolina @ Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -31.5
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 78 degrees / 28% rain / 3 mph winds
South Carolina:
Implied total has now dropped to 7.75. We have zero interest with any South Carolina players. From the sounds of quotes from head coach Shane Beamer, I doubt we see Luke Doty start on Saturday as the staff wants to wait until he is 100 percent healthy. According to Beamer, “we anticipate him being able to play on Saturday night if the situation dictates that he needs to be in.” With a blowout looming, might as well trot out the student manager Zeb Noland to take the eventual beating.
RB1 Kevin Harris made his long-awaited return to the field last week vs. East Carolina but registered just 23 yards on seven carries. As a team, the Gamecocks managed just 3.7 yards a carry against a Pirates defense that allowed north of 200 against Appalachian State in the opener. Expect to see Harris, JuJu McDowell, ZaQuandre White and MarShawn Lloyd all tote the rock on Saturday night, making this a situation to avoid again vs. a Georgia defense that is 26th in Defensive Rush Success. The South Carolina offensive line has not gotten the job done either, ranking 86th in line yards created vs. two below-average opponents.
Top three at receiver is pretty well-established at this point with Jalen Brooks, Josh Vann and Dakereon Joyner dominating the snap counts. Vann led the way in targets with seven vs. East Carolina, and his 18.7 aDot dwarfs the others. Joyner caught all five of the passes directed his way last week with a receiving touchdown, and is tied along with Vann for the team lead in targets with nine. Brooks is on the field more than anyone, but has little to show for it. Tight ends are not part of this scheme in the passing game.
Georgia:
I don’t mind saying it – if you touted Stetson Bennett last week as a DFS/CFF option, that was pure luck. Per 247, Bennett is likely to get the start again this week as he’s gotten the most reps with the first-team offense over J.T. Daniels. This report was as of Thursday morning so TBD if they change between now and Saturday night. Georgia QBs are entering CJ Verdell and Marvin Mims territory for me if they haven’t already – meaning I truly cannot predict when their breakout games happen or not. While the offense sucks, the Gamecocks are transitioning well to the new defensive scheme, rankings 16th in Rush Success, No. 1 overall (tied with Georgia) in Finishing Drives and 20th in Havoc created. USC has allow just two plays of over 20 yards – one of which was the trick play last week vs. East Carolina.
The Georgia backfield is an annual mess and 2021 is no different. Five different running backs have seven or more carries so far with leading rusher Zamir White averaging 10 carries a game. So you have a RBBC here, and the offensive line is failing to create space for the runners as they rank 95th in Line Yards. I’ve been surprised before, as last week indicated with Bennett, but I’ll be fading Georgia backs this week in a tough matchup. White, Kendall Milton and James Cook will all factor in.
Kirby Smart mentioned this week to the media that Kearis Jackson is taking steps in practice to re-enter the starting lineup in the slot as he doesn’t have a single target all year. Ladd McConkey has seen the majority of the playing time inside, and the 247 beat writer expects that to be the case again this week, but could see Jackson dip into those reps. McConkey has just four targets on 25 routes run. Jermaine Burton and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint start outside, but combined for just four targets last week. FR tight end Brock Bowers has been the best pass-catching option for the Dawgs, catching all nine of his targets, and found the end-zone twice vs. UAB. Pricing for Bowers seems extremely low at $3,800 for someone who is tied for the team lead in targets.
Points have to come from somewhere here with an implied total 39, I’m just truly not sure where outside of White, Burton and Bowers who are all priced too high for my tastes. South Carolina’s ability to limit the big play has me steering clear of the low-volume passing offense so maybe Zamir White is of more interest.
Utah @ San Diego State
Point-Spread: Utah -8.5
O/U Total: 43
Weather: 71 degrees / 1% rain / 11 mph winds
Utah:
DraftKings’ algorithm still has no idea what to do with the Utah backfield as TJ Pledger remains the highest priced running back for the Utes. I’m still not 100 percent that Micah Bernard is now THE guy in the Utah backfield after rushing for 146 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries last week vs. BYU, but he will certainly get the first crack on Saturday night. The problem is this is a terrible matchup against a San Diego State defense that might be tops among G5 teams, ranking No. 3 nationally in Defensive Rush Success and Defensive Havoc. The Utah offensive line should be up to the task as they’re 16th in Line Yards as the Utes average nearly seven yards a carry as a team. Bernard is definitely in the pool of consideration Saturday at just $4,700 but don’t be completely shocked if Tavion Thomas gets another shot in the backfield after being benched due to a fumble last week.
Charlie Brewer is basically the same player we saw back at Baylor. 64 percent completion rate with three touchdowns in two games on 26 passing attempts per, but is not running the football much, and struggled vs. an average BYU defense last week. San Diego State lost three starters in the secondary from a year ago, but are still creating problems for opposing QBs even with the new pieces. Rank 96th in yards allowed per game, skewed slightly by the 56 passing attempts New Mexico State had in the opener, but are No. 2 nationally in Passing Success and No. 3 in Havoc as the Aztecs already have four interceptions.
Receiving production is all over the board here with Britain Covey who leads in targets with 10, though he has just 20 yards receiving on the year. Solomon Enis and Theo Howard comprise the rest of the starting lineup at receiver with eight catches on 13 targets. Those three account for 84 percent of the total routes run amongst Utah wideouts. The trouble is Utah heavily incorporates their backs and tight ends in the passing attack so it’s not just condensed to the receivers. Brant Kuithe and Dalton Kincaid have accounted for three of the four receiving touchdowns. Bernard is also a sensational pass-catcher, tied for second with seven targets.
San Diego State:
I don’t want to overrate what Greg Bell has done in the first two games, rushing for 161 yards and 125 yards, respectively, against New Mexico State and Arizona. BUT that’s two teams that rank 115th or lower nationally in run defense to start the season. On the flip side, Bell is averaging 7.5 yards per carry despite the offensive line ranking 81st in Line Yard and 81st in Rush Success. Just baffling despite the production that Bell is still just $4,900 on DraftKings.
QB1 Jordan Brookshire is expected to miss the contest, leading to former Georgia Tech transfer Lucas Johnson getting the nod. Minimal interest there as San Diego State attempts just 17 passes per game, though Johnson is a similar athlete to Brookshire so he can move – averaged 10 yards a carry in 2020. Being 8.5-point dogs would indicate SDSU will have to throw it more than they’d prefer. Tight end Daniel Bellinger topped 100 receiving yards with a TD last week vs. Arizona and leads the Aztec pass-catchers in routes run. B.J. Busbee, Jesse Matthews and Kobe Smith comprise the starting trio at receiver, but combined have just six catches. Lean towards Matthews is you feel the need to roster one after leading SDSU in receptions (25) in 2020.
Central Michigan @ LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -20
O/U Total: 61
Weather: 78 degrees / 26% rain / 6 mph winds
Central Michigan:
If all things are even, I’ll always side with the team that possesses better athletes which is obviously LSU. 29th in Defensive Rush Success and 29th in Defensive Line Yards through two games. Central Michigan has been equally as good producing yards on the ground, 25th nationally in Line Yards and already have put up numbers vs. an SEC opponent this season, rushing for 253 yards against Missouri in Week 1. Lew Nichols is cheap enough at $5,300 that I think we must consider him, and CMU isn’t rotating their backs like they have in recent year’s due to the Kobe Lewis injury. Nichols accounts for 51 percent of the rushing volume going to CMU running backs, and is fourth in targets.
It’s a three-man crew at WR with JaCorey Sullivan, Dallas Dixon and Kalil Pimpleton accounting for 69 percent of the team’s target share. Dixon and Sullivan are the salary savers here, but will have a pair of potential All-American cornerbacks shadowing them all game in Derek Stingley Jr. and Eli Ricks. Maybe Pimpleton can find some room in the middle of the field coming out of the slot? His $6k salary is tough to swallow, though. Full fade of QB Jacob Sirmon for me here. Game script works in his favor, but LSU leads the nation in sacks with 12, and the Chips allowed nine sacks vs. Missouri.
LSU:
LSU looked bored last weekend with a casual 34-7 win over McNeese State. Starting with some of the injuries, it appears LSU will get two starting offensive linemen back this week. The Tigers will be without Jontre Kirklin and John Emery again as they deal with their respective academic statuses. LSU is averaging just 255 yards per game through the air this season behind QB1 Max Johnson, but much of that has to do with the pressure being allowed by the O-line, which was spotlighted during the UCLA loss where the defense sent extra blitzers at Johnson. His yards per attempt is down thus far as a result, averaging just 6.7 YPA. Because of LSU’s struggles to run the football, facing a CMU secondary that was the worst in the MAC a year ago, I think Johnson is of interest to us, but is diminished with the impending weather of upwards of 40 percent chance rain.
The LSU passing game also needs to find a secondary option beyond star WR Kayshon Boutte who is accounting for 34 percent of the team’s receiving production. Slot receiver Trey Palmer seems to be emerging as a possible candidate with 10 receptions on 13 targets, and scored a touchdown last weekend, but his pricing is astronomical. We’ll do some more digging pregame to see who is a potential option at the third spot opposite Boutte because Jaray Jenkins simply isn’t cutting it with three catches on eight targets and two drops. Might we see a true freshmen step in his place and see extended playing time? TE/WR Jack Bech is fourth on the team in routes run and targets.
At running back, I have a feeling we are seeing a changing of the guard as the staff got an extended look at talented true FR Armoni Goodwin and Corey Kiner last week. Goodwin has already been ruled out, so the likely backfield tandem will consist of Kiner and Tyrion Davis-Price. TDP may get the start due to seniority, but has proven nothing to this point with 68 yards on 21 carries. I’m not banking on the LSU ground game with any matchup, even against Central Michigan, given their ranking at 119th in Rushing Success and 114th in Line Yards, but you’d think Kiner/TDP could muster up some production against a CMU defense that already allowed 211 yards to Missouri earlier this season. Not priorities, but not eliminating Kiner from our player pool either.
Virginia @ North Carolina
Point-Spread: UNC -8
O/U Total: 66.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 4% rain / 2 mph winds
Virginia:
Game stack alert. The total is right where we want it at 66.5 and there really are no decided advantages at any spot between the two teams, offensively or defensively which makes for a competitive matchup. Brennan Armstrong has been, by far, the best quarterback in the ACC so far, leading the conference in passing touchdowns (7), yards per game (372) and efficiency (196.4). We haven’t seen Armstrong take off the way he did last year on the ground with just 12 carries in two games, but seems like a coaching decision with UVA having an 85-14 scoring advantage. The Heels rank 11th nationally in pass defense through two weeks, but have faced Braxton Burmeister and Cornelious Brown so some context is needed.
Zero interest in the UVA backfield with Wayne Taulapapa seemingly around for his 10th season of college football. RB2 Mike Hollins dips into the volume a bit, but UVA will incorporate offensive weapon Keytaon Thompson on the ground (9-67-1) and I expect Armstrong’s rushing numbers to increase in a competitive matchup. The true shame here is that Thompson is listed as a QB on DK as one of the more valuable pieces on the team with 67 rushing yards and 134 receiving yards.
Dontayvion Wicks, Billy Kemp IV and Ra’Shaun Henry dominate the target tree among UVA receivers with 48 percent of the share. Really no separation between the three, with each tallying at least five targets last week vs. Illinois, though Wicks did find the end-zone twice. All three are moderately priced and their usage rates are near even which lends to a crapshoot. Tight end Jelani Woods might be the team’s best pass-catcher with six receptions on eight targets, and a matchup nightmare for defenders at 6-foot-7. Way too cheap at $3,400 for a team in UVA that features the tight end position frequently in their scheme.
North Carolina:
There are values all over the place at running back and receiver in this night slate, so I believe we can spend up at quarterback with some elite options at play. Sam Howell rebounded against Georgia State, completing 72 percent of his passes for 352 yards and three touchdowns, while also adding two more scores on the ground. QBs have been involved on the ground in Phil Longo’s offense previously, but we are seeing Howell tuck and run more this year than in the past, with 23 carries in two games. Howell went off against this same defense a year ago with 443 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions. UVA ranks 23rd in pass defense, allowing 155 yards per game through the air, but that is skewed considering the Cavs faced Williams & Mary and the backup Illinois quarterback. Virginia ranks 42nd overall so far in Defensive Pass Success rate.
Ty Chandler is dominating the touches in the UNC backfield, though it hasn’t always been effective as the Tennessee transfer is averaged just 3.9 YPC against Georgia State. No other running back had more than four rushing attempts last week, though primary backup D.J. Jones did not play. UNC seemed to favor Jones in the backfield over Chandler for a short stretch in the opener vs. Virginia Tech, so we’ll want to check on his status pregame. For a system that has always featured running backs in the passing game, it’s a surprise to see Chandler with just two targets in two games. Expect that to increase. If there’s a spot where the UVA defense struggles, it is within their front seven as they’re 108th in Defensive Line Yards allowed.
Josh Downs, Emery Simmons and Antoine Green continue to pace the WR room in targets and routes run, though we did see some increased activity from Khafre Brown who logged 17 routes vs. Georgia State. Using some of the grades from PFF, and insights from the 247 North Carolina beat writer, “Virginia’s best coverage guys are their linebackers and safeties.” The two outside cornerbacks, Darrius Bratton and Anthony Johnson, posted low coverage grades against both opponents this season. That does favor Simmons and Green here, but you’ll have to spend a bit to roster them. Downs remains the primary target in the UNC pass offense with 11 targets in each of the first two weeks.
Utah State @ Air Force
Point-Spread: AF -9.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 15 mph winds
Utah State:
On paper, this will be Utah State’s most challenging opponent of the season against an Air Force defense that ranks inside the top 10 in every major statistical category, including Rush Success, Line Yards, Pass Success, Havoc…you name it. Granted, the Falcons have played Lafayette and Navy so the schedule has been cake, but Air Force has done what’s expected with whichever opponent has been put forth in front of them. Given that Air Force is allowing just 1.36 yards per carry on the ground, do we see Blake Anderson and his Aggie offense take to the air with more frequency? Logan Bonner is really cheap at $5,800, coming off a four-touchdown performance against North Dakota where he looks to have wrestled the starting job away from Andrew Peasley. Anderson has shown that he’s willing to bring on the backup QB if the starter isn’t performing well, but Bonner does face a defense in Air Force that hasn’t forced a single turnover yet this season. I won’t have much exposure here as I’m set on spending up at QB.
If Utah State is beating Air Force, it will be through the air so I’m avoiding the running backs at any cost here. Oregon State transfer Calvin Tyler Jr. has emerged as the top option in the backfield, averaging over five yards a carry on 28 attempts, but we’ve already gone over how dominant Air Force has been at stopping the run. At receiver, we have four realistic options to choose from with Deven Thompkins, Justin McGriff, Derek Wright and Brandon Bowling. Thompkins is obviously the alpha, in an offensive system that has developed many profitable receivers in CFF over the years. Eight receptions on 11 targets in each of the first two games for Thompson, averaging 16.6 yards per catch with an aDOT of just 11.0 so you know he’s getting it done after the ball is already in his hands. Wright was fourth in routes run last week, but had a big day with 4-73-2. The slow-plodding McGriff is really cheap at $3,300 for someone that sees starter reps as he was second in routes run last week, and is a taller option at 6-foot-5. Bowling is a rotational player in the slot, depending on if Utah State goes 3- or 4-wide, with seven receptions on nine targets. Utah State does not use a tight end in this scheme.
Air Force:
Short n’ sweet. We legitimately care about two players, and two players only for Air Force with FB Brad Roberts and QB Haaziq Daniels who make up for 72 percent of the team’s rushing volume. Air Force will typically use two fullbacks in their system routinely, but not the case here with 25+ carries in each of the first two weeks for Roberts, topping 100 rushing yards in both. The team must not be sold on FB2 Omar Fattah or just think that highly of Roberts, who is proving the staff right so far. The centralized volume in the Air Force backfield has also led to increase rushing numbers for Daniels as well, with 14 and 19 carries in the first two weeks – both higher than any number he saw all of last season, and has already surpassed last year with four rushing scores.
Utah State has a pair of really good defenders in LB Justin Rice and S Dominic Tatum who have combined for 29 tackles already, but the Aggies rank just 95th in Rush Success and 75th in Finishing Drives (points per trip inside the 40) – a crucial statistic when facing a methodical offense like Air Force. One stat working in the favor of the Utah State defense – 15 tackles for loss already for the Aggies. WRs aren’t the focus in the triple-option offense, but sophomore Micah Davis leads the team in targets with four and is third in rushing with 114 yards on eight carries with a pair of scores.
Auburn @ Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -5
O/U Total: 53
Weather: 76 degrees / 1% rain / 5 mph winds
Auburn:
Prime time. At night. On the road. In a White Out. Taking on a top 15 scoring defense? You willing to trot out Bo Nix in your lineup under those circumstances? Hell no. The third-year QB has taken well to the new offensive system under Bryan Harsin so far, completing 74 percent of his throws with five touchdowns….against Akron and Alabama State. Nix can hurt a defense with his legs, as shown already in the early portion of the year, but there are simply better options to turn our attention to. I’d rather starter Bonner or Haaziq Daniels for $800 less if going the cheap route at QB. We have Nix projected as the 77th ranked QB this week at 18.9 fantasy points.
Auburn will undoubtedly lean on their star tonight in Tank Bigsby who is off to a sensational start with back-to-back 100-yard efforts on just 24 total carries. Through two weeks, the Tigers are running the ball at a 60 percent clip, highest in the nation, and are 7th in Rushing Success and 6th in Line Yards created. Level of competition faced should yield those results, but this is a really good offensive line that brought back the majority of its starters from last year. With backup Shaun Shivers being listed as day-to-day with a minor injury, we could see an increased workload for Bigsby this week. Just one reception in two games, but that number will rise as the season goes along as Harsin loves to throw to his running backs generally.
The receiving corps for Auburn is still a work in progress (to my dismay with Elijah Canion nowhere to be found). Shedrick Jackson and Demetris Robertson pace the group with 13 combined receptions on 17 targets, and are the clear leaders among the Auburn WRs in routes run. Too expensive for me this week, though those two are your best bets to be on the receiving end of Bo Nix passes. Kobe Hudson is third on the team in routes run, but will share time with Ja’Varrius Johnson in the slot who missed last weekend vs. Alabama State with a minor injury. Johnson being back this week depresses their value. TE1 John Samuel Shenker has caught all six of the targets directed his way this year.
Penn State:
I don’t necessarily want to skim over Sean Clifford, but I see little reason to roster him this week when you could spend $400 more for either Sam Howell or Brennan Armstrong. From an efficiency standpoint, Clifford is improved over last season, completing 63 percent of his passes so far with zero turnovers. The senior QB is also the team’s second-leading rusher with 71 yards on 17 carries. Clifford’s aDOT has also increased slightly to 9.8 over last year under the direction of OC Mike Yurcich. Auburn is just 50th in Defensive Pass Success after facing two lowly opponents so maybe there is some advantage to Penn State and their passing game, but I’ll be underweight on my Clifford exposure tonight.
Noah Cain has separated himself in the Penn State backfield with 60 percent of the rushing volume. Only rushed for 69 yards and a TD on 20 attempts last week vs. Ball State, but the promising statistic for his outlook is no other Penn State back receiving more than eight carries. Cain is also getting plenty of looks in the passing game with eight receptions on 10 targets, which hasn’t always been the case in a Yurcich scheme. Auburn ranks No. 1 in rush defense through two games, and Penn State is just 51st in line yards created so this may not be the most advantageous matchup.
Truly only three options in the Penn State passing game with Jahan Dotson, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Parker Washington accounting for 38 of the 40 targets that have gone to Nittany Lions receivers, and make up 64 percent of the team’s total share. Both Washington and KLS are cheap here for two players that are on the field the majority of the game, with Washington being the more viable option of the two with six targets in back-to-back games. Tight ends have been often used in the passing game in recent years under James Franklin, but hasn’t been the case with Yurcich as Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson have combined for just seven targets.
Stanford @ Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: Stan -12.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 18% rain / 4 mph winds
Stanford:
Through the early portion of the season, its looking like RB Austin Jones is a lead candidate for Bust of the Year in college fantasy football. Not all Jones’ fault as the Stanford offensive line has been dreadful, ranking 123rd in Line Yards Created and 121st in Rush Success, but he’s just not a talented enough player to make things happen without good blocking. However, Vanderbilt has been equally as bad at defending the run, ranking 121st in Defensive Rush Success, allowing 5.51 yards per carry after facing East Tennessee and Colorado State. Woof. Might be looking at low ownership here in GPPs with Jones’ struggles to start the year, and if he doesn’t get it going this week, against this defense, we can cut bait in CFF. Backup Nathaniel Peat hasn’t really carved into Jones’ workload much, but did have an 87-yard touchdown run last week vs. USC. Maybe sees increased reps this week?
I haven’t paid much attention yet to the play of sophomore QB Tanner McKee, and maybe I should start? Completing 75 percent of his passes so far against two P5 opponents in Kansas State and USC, with three touchdowns thrown and zero interceptions. Just 21 passing attempts per game, though, as this is still a run-based offense as it has always been under David Shaw. Vanderbilt has only been marginally better at defending the pass, ranking 87th in Defensive Pass Success. Implied total here of 30.5 and he’s cheap enough that I think McKee remains in our player pool of options. Four rushing attempts in each of the first two weeks.
I don’t have an update on the status of Michael Wilson just yet who has not played this season due to injury. Will double-check prior to game time. Brycen Tremayne leads the way so far in routes run, targets, receptions and touchdowns. Elijah Higgins currently sits second in those categories behind Tremayne and saw a $1,000 salary bump after his big game last week with 5-67-1 on six targets. Those are the two primary beneficiaries with Wilson sitting. John Humphreys is a distant third with 30 total routes run, and just six targets. The tight end position still isn’t what it used to be in the Stanford offense 4-5 years ago, but Benjamin Yurosek has established himself as the clear TE1 for the Cardinal. Eight targets in two games with no other tight end being any kind of a factor in the passing attack.
Vanderbilt:
Game script for Vandy this week will favor the pass, meaning we need to give a hard look to redshirt freshman Will Sheppard at $3,500 as he leads the team in targets (23) and tied for the team lead in receptions with 13. Cam Johnson shares that title with Sheppard at 13 catches, and was the primary option against Colorado State with 9-64-1 on 11 targets. 6-foot-4 Chris Pierce leads the team in routes run, and has been a consistent playmaker for the Dores with four receptions in each of the first two weeks. Min salaried receiver Devin Boddie Jr. is a distant fourth in terms of routes run, but has been targeted 12 times in two games with nine receptions. Wouldn’t go crazy here on ownership, but I think all four are in play.
I don’t think Vandy will find much success on the ground so much will be dependent on QB Ken Seals this week who is averaging 38 passing attempts per game through two weeks. One small storyline to monitor here would be if backup Mike Wright is available or not as he came in on running downs in the opener against East Tennessee. Those carries went to Seals last week with 13 rushing yards and a TD on seven carries. Minor in the grand scheme, but seven carries is better than one, no?
Stanford has been dreadful at stopping the run through the early going, allowing over six yards a carry and five rushing TDs. I’ll still be avoiding Re’Mahn Davis running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the country as Vanderbilt ranks 125th in Rush Success and 116th in line yards. Biggest plus to Davis is his 54 percent share of the rushing volume where no other Vandy running back has more than nine carries on the year.
Tulane @ Ole Miss
Point-Spread: Miss -14
O/U Total: 76.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 28% rain / 5 mph winds
Tulane:
My season-long concern with Michael Pratt this year was upside in a run-based offense. What we do get is consistency as he’s accounted for at least two total touchdowns in his last nine games dating back to last season. And Pratt has already squashed some of my upside concerns with a 296-yard, three-touchdown performance against Oklahoma in Week 1 despite being harassed all game long. At $7,100 with this game total, love Pratt as a possible run back candidate at QB where we can save a few dollars.
I’m discounting last week’s numbers vs. Morgan State in a blowout and looking at how the running back rotation fared against Oklahoma in a competitive game. Cameron Carroll had a distinct advantage over Tyjae Spears, and appears to be the preferred option of the two in the backfield, but both will see plenty of game reps. We are seeing a decline in rushing totals all across the board for Tulane under new OC Chip Long as the Wave are averaging around three carries less per game from last year and are down to 4.86 yards per attempt as a team. Ole Miss is currently 104th in Defensive Rush Success. Carroll did have two receiving touchdowns on four catches vs. the Sooners.
While I like Pratt this week, I’m not sure this is a situation where it’s imperative to stack a pass-catcher with him in a lineup. No receiver has more than 10 targets on the year, and five different wideouts have run more than 30 routes. Jaetavian Toles leads the way in both categories with nine targets on 65 routes run. Last year’s primary options, Deuce Watts and Jha’Quan Jackson, have just five catches combined between them. Tight end Tyrick James is tied for the team lead in targets.
Ole Miss:
Remember what we saw on Friday night with Isaiah Bowser’s ownership percentages? Be careful because we are about to see the exact same thing with WR Dontario Drummond who is absurdly priced at $5,900. 15 receptions and three touchdowns with nine targets in each of the first two games. Jonathan Mingo had the big game last week with 8-113-2 on 12 targets and is tied for first on the team with Braylon Sanders in routes run. DraftKings must be using our preseason rankings as they still have Sanders as the highest-priced WR for Ole Miss (see I can laugh at myself…or cry), though he is on the field for the majority of games, and this will not be a low-scoring contest. The biggest surprise for Sanders is his 45 yards receiving as he’s the fastest WR on the team. His ownership will be really low tonight if looking for a strong contrarian play. A fourth option hasn’t really developed behind the top three, with John Rhys Plumlee, Jahcour Pearson and Dannis Jackson seeing intermittent work.
What else can we say about Matt Corral that hasn’t already been said. The massive game total keeps him in play, and with him being a true Heisman candidate, don’t be surprised to see Lane Kiffin use these non-conference games as a platform to boost stats. Tulane has been solid against the run this season, but is 87th in Passing Success, having already allowed Spencer Rattler to top 300 passing yards against them. The Wave also struggled last week with Morgan State where they completed 59 percent of their throws with three passing TDs. Corral also has 114 yards and a TD on the ground. Don’t mind one bit paying up for his salary in GPPs. ***Watch the weather here where we could see scattered thunderstorms around kickoff.
Full-fledged RBBC with Jerrion Ealy, Snoop Conner and Henry Parrish all seeing considerable playing time. Ealy and Parrish do provide added value as pass-catching options with a combined 11 targets. Don’t love the matchup against a Tulane run defense that is 17th in Rush Success and 6th in Line Yards. I’ll probably avoid here.