Nebraska @ Oklahoma
Point-Spread: Okla -22.5
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Nebraska:
As we saw in the Illinois game where Adrian Martinez primarily struggled throwing the football, he can still “get there” from a DFS perspective because of his legs, which have been an extreme asset in each of the first three games with a combined 256 yards and three TDs. Nebraska needs all the yards they can get from Martinez’ legs as the team’s leading rusher. I want to believe Martinez can match/surpass his $7,300 salary this week, but a couple of things working against him. The Sooners harassed another dual-threat QB in Michael Pratt in Week 1, holding him to just 34 yards on 15 carries with four sacks.
Martinez could also be without some of his top playmakers on Saturday, though we won’t know because Scott Frost won’t give us any insights as to who will be available. Oliver Martin hasn’t played since his 100-yard performance in the opener vs. Illinois. Omar Manning was seen in a boot last Saturday, with another rotational piece in Zavier Betts on the injured list as well. At tight end, Austin Allen has a head injury and Travis Vokolek has been out all season. Samori Toure continues to be the team’s No. 1 option with 13 catches and two touchdowns on 20 targets. Honestly not sure who else would be in the rotation should any of the listed players above were to miss Saturday’s contest. Chris Hickman stepped in at tight end last week with three catches on four targets. Alante Brown, Chancellor Brewington and Levi Falck I believe would be next up at receiver. Minimal interest here beyond Toure unless Oliver Martin plays.
Seems as though Nebraska will roll with the hot hand in the backfield when it comes to the running backs. Gabe Ervin was the preferred choice vs. Buffalo with 56 yards and two TDs on 10 carries, but the prior week it was Markese Stepp who had 101 yards on 18 attempts – albeit in a blowout scenario. Still lean Ervin of the two choices here against an Oklahoma defense that has been stout thus far against the run, allowing just 2.63 yards a carry. Just 79th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate and 112th in Defensive Rush Play PPA so this isn’t exactly the 85’ Bears here.
Oklahoma:
Not much to glean from Oklahoma’s 76-0 romp over Western Carolina. Spencer Rattler got his with five touchdown passes and a near perfect QB rating, and we get a slight salary decrease this week despite being the second-highest ranked QB on the slate at $9,500? Rattler gets a Nebraska defense that is allowing just 182 yards per game through the air and only 11.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Who were those quarterbacks? Art Sitkowski, Kyle Vantrease and whoever Fordham’s QB is. I’m in on Rattler this week in a few lineups even at his pricing.
As for who he is throwing to, it was the same starters for the second week in a row with Marvin Mims, Jadon Haselwood and Michael Woods, with star FR Mario Williams mixed in. DraftKings still hasn’t realized that Williams is a stud yet given his $4,100 salary despite notching a touchdown in both games to start his career. He continues to split snaps with Woods on the right side of the field, with Haselwood and Mims seeing the majority of the work vs. Tulane (we don’t care what happened vs. WCU). Tight end Austin Stogner is on the field around 60 percent of the time, but production has been minimal with five catches on seven targets.
As long as both are healthy, we will continue to see a split backfield between Kennedy Brooks and Eric Gray, and based on their usage in Week 1, I’d much rather spend the $400 extra for Brooks. Nebraska ranks 76th overall in run defense nationally, and are 103rd in D Rush Play Success rate vs. Illinois, Buffalo and Fordham. Not great.
Coastal Carolina @ Buffalo
Point-Spread: Coastal -14
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 73 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Buffalo is fresh off allowing 33 fantasy points to Adrian Martinez and will now host a better dual-threat quarterback in Grayson McCall on Saturday. Still formulating an opinion around the Buffalo defense after just two games, but seems as though they can be had through the air, where Martinez completed 70 percent of his throws for 296 yards and two touchdowns. McCall has yet to top 25 fantasy points this season, but has been as efficient as ever, completing 83 percent of his throws and yet to turn the ball over. Where he’s getting dinged from a fantasy standpoint is his usage on the ground, where he has just 10 carries in two games – averaged 11 carries a contest in 2020. Martinez topped 100 yards rushing against these same Bulls last weekend. Will he be under-valued in GPP ownership at his middling salary, despite an implied total of 35.5?
Three-man backfield continues for Coastal with projected starter Reese White being the star of the show last Friday with 102 yards and three rushing scores on just 14 carries, and is now the highest-priced running back on the slate. Likely low ownership in GPPs considering the salary, but I can’t convince myself to spend up for him with both Shermari Jones and Braydon Bennett garnering carries.
Straight forward with Coastal pass-catching options with WR1 Jaivon Heiligh and Isaiah Likely combining for 15 of the 21 targets vs. Kansas last week. Those two combined for 50 percent of the team’s target share in 2020 and are well on their way to matching that this season. 7th-year senior Kameron Brown is the only other receiver worthy of consideration, on the field for 87 percent of the team’s total snaps, but has just four targets.
Buffalo:
On the surface, this appears to be a very favorable matchup for Kevin Marks at his $6,000 salary facing the 107th ranked run defense. And it very well could wind up the way, but must take into account that the Chants faced a triple-option offense against Citadel in Week 1 and most of the rushing production in Week 2 came from QB Jason Bean who had 100 yards on 13 carries. Whereas three running backs see significant playing time for CCU, that’s not the case with Buffalo as Marks accounts for 39 percent of the team’s rushing production and had a team-high 21 attempts vs. Nebraska. Buffalo still hasn’t sorted out their RB2 situation between Dylan McDuffie and Ron Cook Jr., which benefits Marks. The senior RB also has four receptions on four targets – Buffalo didn’t throw to running backs under Lance Leipold.
Avoiding starting QB Kyle Vantrease against the ninth ranked pass defense in the land as the Chants haven’t allowed a passing TD yet this season. Vantrease has seen a significant uptick in attempts per game at 34.5, but that includes 50 passes thrown in their comeback attempts vs. Nebraska. Top three at WR on the depth chart this week are Quian Williams, Dominic Johnson and Khamran Laborn. Jovany Ruiz was not listed on the depth chart – I assume due to injury – and would not consider him. Williams, the Eastern Michigan transfer, is the only one here worth considering with 13 receptions on 17 targets in two weeks. If Vantrease is somehow chucking it 50 times again this week in a likely comeback attempt, Williams could make some sense in a full-point PPR setting.
Michigan State @ Miami
Point-Spread: Mia -6
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 88 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Michigan State:
Kenneth Walker wasn’t needed vs. Youngstown State, and should get closer to his standard workload of 20+ carries this week against a Miami defense that is allowing 150 yards per game on the ground and ranks 93rd in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate. Miami will also be down a linebacker with Keontra Smith suffering an injury that will keep him out at least a month. The Michigan State offensive line has been one of the biggest surprises of the young season, ranking 1st in the nation in line yards. This is a matchup that favors MSU on the ground.
Outstanding performance from Payton Thorne last week with five total touchdowns, four coming through the air. The Miami secondary has been susceptible through two games, ranking 111th in yards per game (276.5) and even made Chase Brice look decent last week as he completed 60 percent of his throws and didn’t toss an interception. Still don’t necessarily think this is the best matchup for him despite a positive game-script as a near-touchdown underdog, with the Canes ranking 24th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. Upside with this passing game for DFS purposes is the target tree is centered around just two players with Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor accounting for 54 percent of the share. Reed was the beneficiary last week with two long touchdowns, but Nailor continues to lead in targets and routes run – albeit slightly. There should not be a $2,900 discrepancy with their pricing, making this a spot to possibly take advantage with Nailor. Tre Mosley is the only other MSU receiver to consider, though he has just five targets thus far.
Miami:
Going to assume that Cam’Ron Harris will be a popular play this week in all formats at just $5,400 as he’s expected to get the lion’s share of the workload with Don Chaney Jr. now out for the season and Jaylan Knighton still suspended, I believe. True FR Cody Brown will be the primary backup on Saturday. Harris had 18 carries last week vs. Appalachian State for 91 yards and a touchdown, and 247 is indicating he should see 20 carries if the game script allows for it. The Spartans run defense has been average to start the year, ranking 50th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate, allowing 142 yards per game.
Will this be the week we finally see a Mike Harley breakout? Just eight receptions for 50 yards in two games, averaging 1.8 yards after the catch. That number was 7.1 a year ago. In Week 1, MSU allowed 112 YAC yards to Northwestern so this might be a shot for Harley to combust the early-season slump. With the addition of Charleston Rambo and emergence of redshirt FR Key’Shawn Smith, we are not seeing the centralized target tree for the Canes that we did a year ago between Harley and Brevin Jordan. Rambo currently leads the team in targets, with at least eight in both games, while Smith has four catches in each week and is first amongst the starters with an aDOT of 10.2. I still have faith Will Mallory’s breakout performance will come soon as well, with this offensive scheme favoring the tight end position in recent years. His three catches on five targets vs. Appalachian State should be more reflective of what to expect on a weekly basis.
As for D’Eriq King, the fantasy production hasn’t been there, but I do see a lot of positive signs coming out of the first two weeks. A 68 percent completion rate vs. two really good defenses in Alabama and Appalachian State. The 19 carries from King last week proves that he is all the way back from his knee injury suffered late last year. The MSU secondary rebounded last week from a disappointing Week 1 performance, holding Youngstown State to just 137 yards passing on 32 attempts. This is also a secondary that gave up 30 fantasy points to Hunter Johnson. King probably sees low ownership this week at a relative bargain of $7,600.
Virginia Tech @ West Virginia
Point-Spread: WV -2.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 6% rain / 3 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Braxton Burmeister has been serviceable to start the year, but that’s really the extent of it. Completing 60 percent of his passes with a touchdown in each of the first two games, but has not been the running threat we thought we were going to see coming into the year with just eight carries total. Adding to that, Burmeister was apparently nicked up during the matchup with Middle Tennessee so perhaps will the staff try and lessen the amount of contact he takes on this week vs. West Virginia. That’s where his true value is, and if Burmeister isn’t running the ball, he’s of little interest to us.
RBBC to start the year for the Hokies with Jalen Holston, Raheem Blackshear and Keshawn King all getting consistent reps. Blackshear saw the most snaps last week of the three against MTSU, rushing for 58 yards on 10 carries and two TDs. Don’t foresee that kind of running room available against the Mountaineers who held both Maryland and LIU to under four yards a carry, but only rank 94th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate. Blackshear adds a pass-catching ability that the others lack with six targets in two games – zero for Holston.
Tight end James Mitchell is out for the season – bad for the Hokies, but some added value to receivers Tayvion Robinson and Tre Turner who become the sole focus of the passing game, along with Blackshear. Tight end usage in this system isn’t significant enough to where we care much about Mitchell’s replacements. Through two games, Robinson/Turner/Mitchell combined for 65 percent of the target share, and can only assume that will swing even further towards the two receivers now that Mitchell is done. Blackshear will help pick up some of that slack with the WR3 in a bit of a flux, and the 247 Va Tech site believes he will emerge this week from the crowded backfield.
West Virginia:
Whether leading or trailing, this is a West Virginia offense that loves to throw the football, averaging 36 passing attempts per game. Pretty telling for QB1 Jarret Doege considering he throws the ball that much, yet has only scored 25+ fantasy points just three times in the last 11 games played. Probably speaks to his inability to run the ball, with zero designed rushing attempts on 71 drop backs. The Hokies are just 93rd in pass defense this season, allowing 243 yards per game through the air, but much of the speaks to being up by multiple scores against both UNC and Middle Tennessee, forcing both teams to throw more than they’d like.
As for the receivers, Bryce Ford-Wheaton sticks out here as the tallest of the potential options at 6-foot-3, and leads the Mountaineers in both routes run and targets. Somehow he’s just $4,100, compared to his running mate in Winston Wright who is $5,700 despite trailing in both categories. Not by much, though, as Wright is second on the team with 13 targets. Sam James is seeing a revival of sorts after a disappointing 2020 season filled with drops and miscues, and had two TD receptions vs. Middle Tennessee. Sean Ryan and Isaiah Esdale fill out the rotation of WRs primarily used in the rotation.
Last but certainly not least, the offense continues to revolve around running back Leddie Brown who has accounted for 43 percent of the team’s rushing production this season, and that number grows to 60 percent if just including RBs. While 20+ touches is a near lock for Brown in a contest that will likely be competitive heading into the fourth quarter, I’m not sure this matchup favors him against the Virginia Tech defense. The Hokies are allowing just 3.21 yards per carry through two games and rank in the Top 5 nationally in Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Play Total PPA and Defensive Power Success. Overall Defensive Rush Play Success Rate ranks 38th and Brown is just coming off a matchup where he could only muster 2.1 YPC against LIU. Volume will be there. Will the production?
Cincinnati @ Indiana
Point-Spread: Cincy -3.5
O/U Total: 49
Weather: 79 degrees / 2% rain / 4 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Jerome Ford’s season is shaping out just how we predicted thus far, dominating the rushing volume with 30 of the 45 carries that have gone to Cincinnati running backs through two weeks. Topped 100 yards vs. both Miami (Ohio) and Murray State with a combined four rushing scores, but time for a real test against a Hoosier defense that ranked fifth in the Big Ten in 2020, and held Iowa to under three yards a carry in the opener. Rush Play PPA heavily favors the Bearcats here, ranked 14th through two games vs. 100th in Defensive Rush PPA for Indiana.
I think the game total here keeps us out of the Desmond Ridder sweepstakes for a week, but the senior QB’s numbers are up through two games with a 10.9 YPA average and seven passing TDs. Just 10 carries so far, down from 10 rushing attempts per game in 2020, but this staff isn’t risking their QBs health against that level of competition. Pure crapshoot at WR with between 6-7 receivers seeing consistent playing time. Slot receiver Tyler Scott has two touchdowns in two games with an aDOT of 16.8 but has just five targets and is essentially splitting time with Michael Young Jr. Alec Pierce is the team’s best receiver, but has just six targets in two weeks and hasn’t run more than 20 routes in a game yet. I wish I could provide an edge here, but I simply don’t have it. Those three are the only ones I’m choosing from though of the Cincy receivers. After being rated the No. 3 tight end in the country last season according to PFF, Josh Whyle has just five targets in two games, and is essentially splitting time with Leonard Taylor.
Indiana:
This line has dropped to 49 since the start of the week and now a half-point swing in favor of the Bearcats so my interest in the Hoosiers is limited despite playing in the friendly confines of Bloomington. Michael Penix Jr. is better than the three-interception performance in the opener vs. Iowa, but not a superior talent that some have painted him out to be. Cheap at $5,400 but are you starting him against the best secondary he’ll face all year? Junior cornerback Ahmad ‘Juice’ Gardner is sure to be lined up across from Ty Fryfogle and a secondary option has not developed in the Indiana passing game. Florida State transfer D.J. Matthews has five targets in each of the first two weeks, but a 5.0 yards per catch average. Sophomore Javon Swinton split snaps vs. Idaho with starter Miles Marshall and has done more in just one game than Marshall has done seemingly his entire career with 38 yards and a TD. TE1 Peyton Hendershot played the most snaps vs. Idaho of any skill position player for the Hoosiers, yet didn’t record a single target.
The Bearcats aren’t as adept at stopping the run, but still pretty damn good, allowing 3.2 yards per carry through two weeks. A breakout performance of sorts for USC transfer Stephen Carr last week, rushing for 118 yards and a TD on 22 carries, but I don’t believe the Indiana offensive line woes are fixed just yet. 98th in line yards and 80th in Rush Play PPA. Biggest positive from the Carr performance was 22 carries vs. just eight attempts for backup Tim Baldwin.
Minnesota @ Colorado
Point-Spread: Colo -2.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Minnesota:
Trey Potts is sure to be a popular play this week after stepping in for Mo Ibrahim against Miami (Ohio), rushing for 178 yards and two touchdowns. There were hints that he was leading the competition for the backup job behind Big Mo in the offseason, so we expected him to start last Saturday, but the dispersal of carries was eye-opening with 34 attempts for Potts. Cam Wiley and Bryce Williams combined for just five rushing attempts. So with Potts seeing an Ibrahim-like workload, he should be a lock at $7,300, yes? Colorado’s defense has allowed just 17 points in two games, fifth fewest in the country, and held Isaiah Spiller to just 2.5 YPC last week. Our projections show Potts as the top ranked running back on the slate at 24 fantasy points, but I have my concerns with the matchup as Minnesota ranks just 95th in Rush Success and 104th in line yards vs. a Top 20 run defense…on the road.
The Buffs will surely load up against the run this week, forcing Tanner Morgan and the passing game to beat them through the air. Colorado has been equally as good defending the pass, allowing just a 52.4 percent completion rate on 40+ attempts in each of the first two weeks. Would help the Gophers if their WRs were healthy as both Chris Autman-Bell and Dylan Wright are questionable leading up to Saturday. Minnesota’s 247 writer, one of the best in the business, indicated he is projecting both to start this weekend. Wright has arguably been the team’s best WR thus far with a touchdown in both weeks, but is downgraded with the return of CAB should that be the case. Daniel Jackson is second on the team in targets and first in routes run – his role is less impacted by CAB’s return.
Colorado:
So, this Colorado offense is no good. BUT, neither is the Minnesota defense which ranks 80th or lower nationally in rush success, line yards, pass success, among other advanced statistical categories. So who wins the war of which side of the ball is worse on Saturday? We now see why there was a legit QB competition between Brendon Lewis and J.T. Shrout this offseason – Lewis can’t throw. Completing just 58 percent of his passes, and averaging 96 yards per game through two games. To be fair, his receivers aren’t doing him any favors, whether due to drops or suspensions. On the ground, Lewis is dynamic with his legs, averaging over seven yards a carry which provides a solid floor for his $5,500 salary.
We have a clear Top 4 now at receiver now that La’Vontae Shenault is suspended indefinitely. Dimitri Stanley, Daniel Arias, Brenden Rice and Montana Lemonious-Craig separated themselves from the pack in snaps last Saturday vs. A&M and should be the primary group this week. With Colorado averaging just 20 pass attempts per game thus far, not a ton of interest here, though everyone is sub-$4,500k.
Jarek Broussard is going to be tempting this week at just $5,700 given the matchup against this Minnesota defense where there are weak spots all over as we indicated above. According to the 247 Colorado writer, Broussard’s health is “in good standing” after being sidelined during the second half last week. Trouble is we still really don’t have a great indication as to how Colorado will divvy up carries this year between Broussard and talented backups Alex Fontenot and Ashaad Clayton – both of whom averaging over four yards a carry. I suspect Broussard will be under-owned in GPPs given his injury suffered last week, but the reporting indicates he should be ready to roll.
Purdue @ Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -7
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Purdue:
The Boilermakers already ranked 17th in the country in pass attempts per game, and I expect that number could rise this week and moving forward now that starting running back Zander Horvath will miss between 4-8 weeks with a broken fibula. Who takes Horvath’s place in the starting lineup? King Doerue and UNLV transfer Dylan Downing likely split the workload and this isn’t a Purdue offense that’s had much success running the football over the last year, averaging just 3.63 yards a carry in 2021 coming off a year where the Boilermakers ranked 124th nationally in yards per game on the ground. With both in the $4k range, hard pass for me.
The sheer volume at which Purdue throws the ball makes both Jack Plummer and David Bell intriguing, particularly Bell at just $7,700 for someone who is almost guaranteed to see 10 targets on Saturday. This is an attacking Notre Dame defense under DC Marcus Freeman with 9.5 TFLs and five sacks in two games, placing them inside the top 10 in both categories, but the Irish are allowing over 33 points per game following matchups against two middling opponents in Florida State and Toledo. The Irish are 92nd so far in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate so there should be opportunities for Plummer and this passing attack.
We know Bell is going to be featured heavily, but it seems as though Purdue is still trying to figure out who the complementary parts will be this season in the passing game. Tight end Payne Durham is one, with 11 receptions and three touchdowns in two games. Milton Wright was thought to be the sidekick to Bell this year, but that hasn’t transpired with two receptions in two games. Jackson Anthrop is third on the team in routes run and tied for second in targets. TJ Sheffield shares time with Anthrop in the slot and recorded a touchdown on four targets vs. Connecticut last week.
Notre Dame:
It’s unusual to see a Notre Dame offensive line struggle as much as it has through two games. Four starters needed to be replaced this season, but the Irish recruit the position as well as any team in the country and also brought in reinforcements through the transfer portal. But the struggles have mounted not only when it comes to running the football but also in pass protection. The Irish allowed six sacks to Toledo last week and are just 110th nationally in rush offense, averaging well under three yards a carry. Doesn’t help when you are down to a third-string left tackle, as Notre Dame lost starter Blake Fisher for 6-8 weeks following the opener and then lost replacement Michael Carmody due to injury against Toledo. What that means this week for Kyren Williams I’m not entirely sure? 20+ fantasy points in each of the first two games, but it’s his pass-catching ability that’s helped him get there, not rushing production. Purdue ranks 34th in Defensive Rushing Success, but those numbers are aided by facing an Oregon State team who hadn’t figured out their RB1 yet and…Connecticut.
34 passing attempts per game through two weeks for Jack Coan, due in part to his lack of mobility, but also game script as the Irish have been trailing in the second half in both contests. The Boilermakers rank 17th in Defensive Pass Success so far, but again…competition. The biggest issue is the staff’s inclusion of freshman Tyler Buchner last week who saw 19 snaps as the Irish look for a change of pace on offense with his mobility. Are we playing a QB that doesn’t run, is dependent on the 300-yard scoring bonus and will likely come off the field for a drive or two again on Saturday?
Michael Mayer continues to be the most consistent offensive playmaker for the Irish, accounting for 34 percent of the target share with three touchdowns in two games. While a secondary option, Kevin Austin is the clear WR1 with four catches and seven targets in each of the first two weeks. Avery Davis and Braden Lenzy continue to see starter’s work in terms of snap counts but have done little when on the field.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -28
O/U Total: 52
Weather: 83 degrees / 12% rain / 3 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Implied total of just 12 points for the Yellow Jackets so the interest here is minimal at best. Freshman Jordan Yates started in place of Jeff Sims last week, and might’ve snagged the QB1 job away for go this year with 254 passing yards and four touchdowns vs. Kennesaw State. Clemson’s had their share of issues this season, but not defensively, ranking in the top 25 in pass / rush success and 35th in havoc. We do have some separation at WR as Tech will play three wideouts primarily in Kyric McGowan, Malachi Carter and Adonicas Sanders. McGowan, the Northwestern transfer, leads with 13 targets and three scores. Carter leads in routes run and is second in targets with 10. Tight ends are rarely used in this offensive scheme so no interest in starter Dylan Leonard.
Split backfield for Tech with Jahmyr Gibbs and Jordan Mason, both of whom are averaging over five yards an attempt. The offensive line has been improved since last season, ranking 45th in line yards but the Jackets are just 112th in Rush Success facing a Clemson defense allowing under 3.5 yards a carry on the ground. Gibbs’ added value as a pass-catcher keeps him in play as a longshot with five catches on eight targets.
Clemson:
Twitter rumors were squashed via the Clemson message boards that quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei was questionable for this week, and there has been no indication from reputable sources that DJU won’t play vs. Georgia Tech. Will do a quick check pregame just to ensure there is no smoke. As for starting him in our lineups, this is a week where we need to see some life from the Clemson offense as they still have a great chance at the CFP should they win out. That also includes winning in impressive fashion. Statistically, the Georgia Tech defense ranks in the top 10 in pass defense, but competition level must be considered. This is also a defense that had an opportunity to stop the NIU offense in the fourth quarter and failed to do so. Allowing Rocky Lombardi to complete 65 percent of his passes with two touchdowns is never good.
This seems like a full-fledged RBBC for Clemson with Kobe Pace, Will Shipley and Lyn-J Dixon that could last for the entirety of the season. That trio might be pared down to two with Dixon now listed third on the depth chart this week, apparently in the doghouse. We didn’t see a Clemson running back have more than eight carries last week, so rostering either Shipley or Pace this week in what likely is a blowout feels like a risky proposition. The Tigers offensive line ranks 20th in line yards created so they’re doing a good job upfront blocking for the RBs.
Can’t take much from the WR rotations for Clemson last week against South Carolina State, so we’ll glean from the opener vs. Georgia where it was Joseph Ngata and Justyn Ross with 15 of the 21 targets that went to receivers. E.J. Williams suffered a hand injury in Week 1, yet played through last week with one reception on four targets. He appears to be the fourth option behind Ngata/Ross and Frank Ladson who is second on the team in routes run, though has just five targets in two games. Should this game get out of hand as it did last week, true FR Dacari and Beaux Collins combined for five catches on eight targets, with brother Beaux seeing the most work (18 snaps). Tight end Braden Galloway had six targets in the opener but didn’t see a single pass directed his way last week.
Alabama @ Florida
Point-Spread: Bama -14.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 26% rain / 4 mph winds
Alabama:
Might have to watch the weather here with a 27 percent chance of precipitation on Saturday, but that hasn’t affected the game total which has grown to 59.5 over the course of the week. Bryce Young is in my initial build as he’s lived up to the 5-star status, completing 71 percent of his throws and averaging over 285 yards per. The concern with Bill O’Brien as the OC has been squashed. The Gators’ defensive play in the secondary has been adequate at best, ranking 77th in Defense Pass Play Success Rate, and their success against Young this weekend will depend on uncomfortable they’ll make him in the pocket, ranking 7th in pass rush according to PFF. The Tide have allowed 20 pressures thus far already, a significant downturn from recent years.
Brian Robinson leads the way with 130 yards on 22 carries, but this is a 4-man committee with Trey Sanders, Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams all involved. As mentioned above with some of the issues upfront, the Tide rank just 53rd in line yards so that group isn’t creating a ton of space either.
We do have separation at wide receiver where Jameson Williams and John Metchie are the clear-cut top two options with a combined 39 percent of the target share. Williams is the play for me here of the two with a touchdown in each of the first two games, a slight salary saver being $400 cheaper, and an aDOT of 20.2 compared to just 8.1 for Metchie. Both are viable options with no evident third choice here for the Tide. JoJo Earle had a season-high seven targets vs. Mercer and split reps with Slade Bolden, but was that due to just the blowout nature of the game? Tight end Cameron Latu played 44 snaps last week but didn’t have a single target after catching two TDs in the opener. My focus here is on the two alphas in Williams/Metchie.
Florida:
Who is starting Saturday between Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson, AND…does it matter? Jones likely gets the first snap here, but hasn’t shown to be anything more than adequate (if that), completing 63 percent of his passes and has tossed more interceptions than touchdowns against below-average competition. The issue with playing Richardson this week, albeit the more talented player, is both his health status with a hamstring injury, and the infrequent snaps he’ll likely receive with Mullen’s insistence on playing Jones. I think the Gators can find some success running the football this week, but the volume is too dispersed to roster a player here. I’m avoiding FL quarterbacks for this week only with the hopes that Mullen makes the permanent switch next week.
Same goes for the running backs with a true committee between Malik Davis, Dameon Pierce and Nay’Quan Wright. Why I think the Gators can find success this week, though on the ground? Top 20 in Rush Play Success and second nationally in Line Yards. Just don’t believe there will be one player to benefit here. Exact same situation at wide receiver where the Gators rotate five wideouts on a consistent basis with Jacob Copeland, Justin Shorter, Xzavier Henderson, Rick Wells and Trent Whittemore. Copeland has the huge week vs. South Florida with 5-175-2, while Shorter leads the team in routes run at 58 percent. Kemore Gamble and Trent Whittemore, both min salaries, are third and fourth, respectively in routes run for the Gators.
USC @ Washington State
Point-Spread: USC -8.5
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 59 degrees / 65% rain / 11 mph winds
USC:
Weather must be taken into account here with 65 percent chance rain expected on Saturday which could affect the passing offenses. Also, with the firing of Clay Helton, does interim head coach Donte Williams switch up the offensive game plan any as the Trojans offense has been far too inconsistent through two games, scoring on just 44 percent of their red-zone trips. Graham Harrell being retained, for now, as OC should keep things relatively similar for QB Kedon Slovis who is averaging 39 passing attempts per game, and had an outstanding performance against this Washington State defense a year ago where he threw four touchdown passes to Amon-Ra St. Brown in the first quarter. The rain dampens our interest slightly here on Slovis, but he is cheap at $7,200 taking on a Washington State secondary that is likely without their lone returning starter in Jaylen Watson who was seen in a sling last weekend.
Drake London is the clear top option here in the passing game with 34 percent of the target share, though we must monitor his health status as he suffered a back injury against Stanford. Prior to being let go, Helton did state that London would be a go this week, but will be double checking to be safe. If for some reason London is limited, our interest increases even further with Tahj Washington and Gary Bryant Jr. who combined for 10 receptions on 13 targets last weekend. There is clear separation here between the three starters, where WR4 Joseph Manjack was fourth among receivers with just seven routes run last week. London, Washington and Bryant Jr. are all in play here for a stacking situation, though the rain tempers my enthusiasm for it.
It was a two-man approach last week with Vavae Malepeai and Keaontay Ingram seeing 15 / 10 rushing attempts, respectively, vs. Stanford. While neither player is overly expensive, this is a true timeshare both in carries and targets coming out of the backfield, which lessens my interest because of the lack of upside. Washington State is 71st in Defensive Rush Play Success. There could be an advantage here for the RBs as USC ranks No. 1 in Rush Play Success, if Harrell ever decides he wants to run the football ever.
Washington State:
Jayden de Laura played well against Portland State, completing 72 percent of his passes for 303 yards with four combined touchdowns. His rushing ability – 65 total yards – is probably the reason why he’s priced above Slovis this week, but with the impending weather and implied total of 27, it’s tough to trust de Laura fully. This is a situation where I’d play de Laura only in a runback, stacking this game as a potential shootout. Again, the rain doesn’t give me confidence this becomes an aerial assault on either side. The Washington State offense put up just 263 total yards in last year’s matchup with the Trojans, where de Laura was intercepted twice. All of that said, this USC defense doesn’t have a single sack or QB hurry yet this season and are 125th in Defensive Pass Play Success…”he says as he tries to talk himself into rostering de Laura on Saturday.”
We said all offseason the targets in the Run and Shoot funnel through the slot. And they still do, but it’s actually true FR De’Zhaun Stribling, an outside receiver, who leads the team in targets with 15. While he would be the third option for me behind Travell Harris and Calvin Jackson Jr., we saw last week that bigger-bodied receivers gave this USC secondary fits last week against Stanford, which led to 109 total penalty yards, most of which via pass interference. Does the rain cause de Laura to look to his safety valves in Harris and Jackson Jr. as both have an aDOT under 11? Don’t forget that 60 percent of the target share last year went to the slot receivers which has been a consistent trend in the RNS scheme. Both are viable in the full-point PPR setting on DK.
I’ll be avoiding Max Borghi this week as the matchup does not favor him, and similarly-valued options as significantly lower prices. The Trojans defense is 3rd nationally in Defensive Line Yards and 26th in Rushing Success, and probably would’ve been higher had they not given up the 80+ yard run to Nathaniel Peat last week. Borghi’s drained usage as a pass-catcher in this system diminishes his value.
Florida State @ Wake Forest
Point-Spread: WF -4.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 3% rain / 3 mph winds
Florida State:
If there is a game this weekend with sneaky shootout potential to game stack, I think this could be the one. That North Carolina – Wake Forest matchup from last season immediately comes to mind, and Vegas agrees as this is the third-highest game total of the slate. McKenzie Milton will start for the second straight game, and while the story is incredible, he hasn’t shown to be anything resembling what he previously what at UCF, as he completed just 18-of-31 passes for 133 yards and a TD vs. Jacksonville State. While Milton didn’t lose the game for the Seminoles, he didn’t win it for them either. Wake Forest hasn’t played anybody noteworthy through two games, but is top 30 currently in coverage grades per PFF, and is 11th in explosive passing plays allowed.
When Milton goes to throw, Kansas transfer Andrew Parchment emerged last week as his top option with 3-29-0 on seven targets, and led the team with 24 routes run. Unsure currently of the status of Ontaria Wilson who was not warming up with the team pregame last week, but true FR Malik McClain got the starting nod in his place, finishing with five targets on 20 routes run, splitting snaps with another FR in Darion Williamson. Avoiding both players. Slot receiver Keyshawn Helton is tied for the team lead in routes run this season, but has just seven targets in two games.
Our primary interest with Florida State is on the ground where Jashaun Corbin has back-to-back 100-yard efforts. We always tend to harp on the offensive line for Florida State, and rightfully so on some occasions, but it’s a really good run blocking group, ranking 27th in line yards. The numbers favor Wake Forest here, but level of competition against Norfolk State and Old Dominion must be factored in. The Deacons ranked outside the top 90 in rush success rate a year ago and are without their two best defensive players from last season. The downside here is FSU’s insistence on distributing carries to both TreShaun Ward and Lawrance Toafili, which to be fair, has been a constant under Mike Norvell during his career. I’d rather spend $100 more for Leddie Brown over Corbin this week with the guaranteed volume, but that probably means low ownership for GPP purposes.
Wake Forest:
I’m admittedly struggling to find an advantage here for Wake Forest offensively with the early-season numbers skewed to the level of competition faced thus far. I don’t expect Sam Hartman to finish 9th nationally in Passing Success as he’s ranked currently. Hartman is averaging just 26 passing attempts through two weeks, and his yards per attempt average is in the same ballpark right now at 8.3. This would appear to be a favorable matchup for him, though, against a Seminole secondary that allowed Jack Coan to complete 74 percent of his throws for 366 yards in the opener, and gave up two TDs last week to Zerrick Cooper. FSU is 73rd nationally in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate.
Wake Forest loves their depth at running back with Christian Beal-Smith, Christian Turner, and Justice Ellison, among others. You could reference the blowout nature of the first two weeks contributing to the distribution of carries amongst the top three, but why do you think Kenneth Walker left town? Dave Clawson’s RB1 averages no more than 160 carries per season, so a committee approach will likely remain the case for the entire season. FSU is allowing just 2.34 yards per carry on the ground so far, but is 73rd in Defensive Rush Play Success. Looking at their two opponents, Notre Dame and Jax State, I’d say it has to do more with those teams than FSU’s run defense. Wake Forest does not throw the ball to their running backs with any frequency.
If rostering Hartman, you must stack Jaquarii Roberson who leads the team with 10-143-2 on 15 targets. That doesn’t apply the other way around with Roberson who you find any way possible to fit in your lineups. We don’t have 100 percent clarity yet as to who the WR2 is for Wake Forest, but the lean is A.T. Perry who made an impression in the opener with 4-81-1 against Old Dominion on five targets. He led all WRs in routes run that week. Donald Stewart and Taylor Morin appear to be in a timeshare at the RWR spot which decreases my interest there. I don’t think we should overlook freshman Ke’Shawn Williams here who is second on the team in targets with 10. This is a team that does not employ a tight end much in the passing game and will go 4-wide frequently. Don’t forget it was Roberson and Morin who led the Deacons in targets last season, both of whom played in the slot.
Tulsa @ Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -24.5
O/U Total: 61
Weather: 86 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Tulsa:
Does Tulsa have a shot at making this game a shoot-out of sorts is the big question as there are a ton of salary savers across the board here. Davis “Brinsanity” Brin is of interest really only due to his pricing of $4,800. Brin bounced back of sorts last week against Oklahoma State, completing 70 percent of his passes for 224 yards, but still has not thrown a touchdown this season. The Ohio State pass defense has been lackluster through two weeks, allowing a 46.7 percent success rate through the air which is 97th nationally – and that’s coming against Tanner Morgan and Anthony Brown. Eeesh. Tulsa uses all four of their WRs on an equal basis, making it a crapshoot as to which one pops in a given week. Josh Johnson leads in targets with 13, with Keylon Stokes, Sam Crawford and JuanCarlos Santana all tied with nine targets a piece. Negative game script helps the cause, but there truly isn’t a statistic that helps separate any of these players from the other. Possible game stack option at very best.
The Tulsa offensive line has not been up to par considering they bring back all five starters. 56th in Line Yards and 112th in Offensive Rush Play Success. Could the find success against the Buckeyes who are allowing 5.4 yards per attempt so far? Tulsa has been known to use two backs consistently within their scheme but we are seeing a bit of separation with Deneric Prince who leads in carries (30) and targets (6), compared to just 20 attempts for Shamari Brooks. This is not a system that features their RBs often in the passing game so I would not expect either to be featured consistently for the remainder of the year. Both players are appropriately priced, so we don’t really have any advantage here of rostering them. I’ll pass on Tulsa this week against a likely motivated Ohio State defense.
Ohio State:
My gut opinion for this game is we see the Ohio State running game take some pressure off of C.J. Stroud and the offensive line that have garnered some unwarranted criticism. Sure, Stroud has looked uncomfortable at time and missed throws, but is completing 63 percent of his passes, averaging 10.2 yards per attempt and has a passing success rate of 52.6 percent. Inflated cost here at $10,000 means I might look toward some cheaper options, especially if I believe OSU will run it more this week.
The offensive line for the Buckeyes has also been very good all things considered, ranking 17th in line yards and are allowing a stuff rate of just 5.5 percent. That boosts my interest in the running game, particularly with stud FR Tre Henderson who saw his snaps jump from Week 1 to 2 as Master Teague has seemingly been eliminated from the equation. This should still be a split between Henderson and Miyan Williams who has now out-gained the freshman 202 to 69 on the ground, but as a cost-saving measure for a game in which Ohio State should win handedly, I do have quite a bit of exposure to Henderson in my builds. Tulsa has been solid to start the year, ranking 35th in defensive rush play success, but faced two teams who struggle to generate yards on the ground in UC-Davis and Oklahoma State.
Same situation as last year with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson who are accounting for over 60 percent of the target share once again. Still believe Wilson is too cheap at $6,400 with 13 receptions and two TDs in the first two weeks. Finally saw a third option in the OSU passing game last week with Jaxon Smith-Njigba getting in on the action with 7-145-2 vs. Oregon, but would just rather spend the $900 more for Wilson there. JSN’s success was due in part to how the game played out. Jeremy Ruckert continues to be an integral part of the Ohio State offense, but just isn’t targeted in the offense.