Nebraska @ Oklahoma
Point-Spread: Okla -22.5
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Nebraska:
As we saw in the Illinois game where Adrian Martinez primarily struggled throwing the football, he can still “get there” from a DFS perspective because of his legs, which have been an extreme asset in each of the first three games with a combined 256 yards and three TDs. Nebraska needs all the yards they can get from Martinez’ legs as the team’s leading rusher. I want to believe Martinez can match/surpass his $7,300 salary this week, but a couple of things working against him. The Sooners harassed another dual-threat QB in Michael Pratt in Week 1, holding him to just 34 yards on 15 carries with four sacks.
Martinez could also be without some of his top playmakers on Saturday, though we won’t know because Scott Frost won’t give us any insights as to who will be available. Oliver Martin hasn’t played since his 100-yard performance in the opener vs. Illinois. Omar Manning was seen in a boot last Saturday, with another rotational piece in Zavier Betts on the injured list as well. At tight end, Austin Allen has a head injury and Travis Vokolek has been out all season. Samori Toure continues to be the team’s No. 1 option with 13 catches and two touchdowns on 20 targets. Honestly not sure who else would be in the rotation should any of the listed players above were to miss Saturday’s contest. Chris Hickman stepped in at tight end last week with three catches on four targets. Alante Brown, Chancellor Brewington and Levi Falck I believe would be next up at receiver. Minimal interest here beyond Toure unless Oliver Martin plays.
Seems as though Nebraska will roll with the hot hand in the backfield when it comes to the running backs. Gabe Ervin was the preferred choice vs. Buffalo with 56 yards and two TDs on 10 carries, but the prior week it was Markese Stepp who had 101 yards on 18 attempts – albeit in a blowout scenario. Still lean Ervin of the two choices here against an Oklahoma defense that has been stout thus far against the run, allowing just 2.63 yards a carry. Just 79th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate and 112th in Defensive Rush Play PPA so this isn’t exactly the 85’ Bears here.
Oklahoma:
Not much to glean from Oklahoma’s 76-0 romp over Western Carolina. Spencer Rattler got his with five touchdown passes and a near perfect QB rating, and we get a slight salary decrease this week despite being the second-highest ranked QB on the slate at $9,500? Rattler gets a Nebraska defense that is allowing just 182 yards per game through the air and only 11.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Who were those quarterbacks? Art Sitkowski, Kyle Vantrease and whoever Fordham’s QB is. I’m in on Rattler this week in a few lineups even at his pricing.
As for who he is throwing to, it was the same starters for the second week in a row with Marvin Mims, Jadon Haselwood and Michael Woods, with star FR Mario Williams mixed in. DraftKings still hasn’t realized that Williams is a stud yet given his $4,100 salary despite notching a touchdown in both games to start his career. He continues to split snaps with Woods on the right side of the field, with Haselwood and Mims seeing the majority of the work vs. Tulane (we don’t care what happened vs. WCU). Tight end Austin Stogner is on the field around 60 percent of the time, but production has been minimal with five catches on seven targets.
As long as both are healthy, we will continue to see a split backfield between Kennedy Brooks and Eric Gray, and based on their usage in Week 1, I’d much rather spend the $400 extra for Brooks. Nebraska ranks 76th overall in run defense nationally, and are 103rd in D Rush Play Success rate vs. Illinois, Buffalo and Fordham. Not great.
Coastal Carolina @ Buffalo
Point-Spread: Coastal -14
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 73 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Buffalo is fresh off allowing 33 fantasy points to Adrian Martinez and will now host a better dual-threat quarterback in Grayson McCall on Saturday. Still formulating an opinion around the Buffalo defense after just two games, but seems as though they can be had through the air, where Martinez completed 70 percent of his throws for 296 yards and two touchdowns. McCall has yet to top 25 fantasy points this season, but has been as efficient as ever, completing 83 percent of his throws and yet to turn the ball over. Where he’s getting dinged from a fantasy standpoint is his usage on the ground, where he has just 10 carries in two games – averaged 11 carries a contest in 2020. Martinez topped 100 yards rushing against these same Bulls last weekend. Will he be under-valued in GPP ownership at his middling salary, despite an implied total of 35.5?
Three-man backfield continues for Coastal with projected starter Reese White being the star of the show last Friday with 102 yards and three rushing scores on just 14 carries, and is now the highest-priced running back on the slate. Likely low ownership in GPPs considering the salary, but I can’t convince myself to spend up for him with both Shermari Brooks and Braydon Bennett garnering carries.
Straight forward with Coastal pass-catching options with WR1 Jaivon Heiligh and Isaiah Likely combining for 15 of the 21 targets vs. Kansas last week. Those two combined for 50 percent of the team’s target share in 2020 and are well on their way to matching that this season. 7th-year senior Kameron Brown is the only other receiver worthy of consideration, on the field for 87 percent of the team’s total snaps, but has just four targets.
Buffalo:
On the surface, this appears to be a very favorable matchup for Kevin Marks at his $6,000 salary facing the 107th ranked run defense. And it very well could wind up the way, but must take into account that the Chants faced a triple-option offense against Citadel in Week 1 and most of the rushing production in Week 2 came from QB Jason Bean who had 100 yards on 13 carries. Whereas three running backs see significant playing time for CCU, that’s not the case with Buffalo as Marks accounts for 39 percent of the team’s rushing production and had a team-high 21 attempts vs. Nebraska. Buffalo still hasn’t sorted out their RB2 situation between Dylan McDuffie and Ron Cook Jr., which benefits Marks. The senior RB also has four receptions on four targets – Buffalo didn’t throw to running backs under Lance Leipold.
Avoiding starting QB Kyle Vantrease against the ninth ranked pass defense in the land as the Chants haven’t allowed a passing TD yet this season. Vantrease has seen a significant uptick in attempts per game at 34.5, but that includes 50 passes thrown in their comeback attempts vs. Nebraska. Top three at WR on the depth chart this week are Quian Williams, Dominic Johnson and Khamran Laborn. Jovany Ruiz was not listed on the depth chart – I assume due to injury – and would not consider him. Williams, the Eastern Michigan transfer, is the only one here worth considering with 13 receptions on 17 targets in two weeks. If Vantrease is somehow chucking it 50 times again this week in a likely comeback attempt, Williams could make some sense in a full-point PPR setting.
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