Tennessee vs. Florida
Point-Spread: UT -6.5
O/U Total: 56
Implied Score: UT 31.5 – Fla 25
Weather: 80 degrees / 15% rain / 8 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Joe Milton ($7,400) Hype train halted last week for Bazooka Joe last week as the Vols had just a 13-6 lead over Austin Peay at halftime before eventually pulling away in the second half. Maybe the weather delay to start the game had an impact for coming out of the gates slowly? Milton’s stat line was very pedestrian considering the opponent, with his longest pass completion being just 45 yards. Still, the Vols rotate so much at RB and WR that he’s the safest best to roll out in a lineup, and Milton’s 27-point projection is still strong. After facing Utah and McNeese State, the Gators are 43rd in success rate against the pass.
Fade – RB Dylan Sampson ($4,900) The breakout star of Week 1 rode the pine most of last week against Austin Peay, giving way to starters Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. Didn’t watch the game, but we’re assuming this is how the true rotation will be in competitive matchups, we is expected against Florida.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Would not consider anyone below $4.5k.
Pivot Play – Start Joe Milton without any WR stacks. This isn’t as spread out as say an SMU receiver group, but it’s not far off. Fairly evident to this point that we won’t have a Jalin Hyatt-like fantasy performance at Tennessee this season with three receivers between 17-22% of the target share. And that’s with Dont’e Thornton being a relative non-factor to this point.
Best of the Rest – WR Dont’e Thornton ($4,500) Tons of hype surrounding Dont’e Thornton and his arrival in Knoxville, viewed as a potential replacement for Jalin Hyatt in the slot given his size and speed combination. Maybe this week is a breakout? But it appears the Oregon transfer was benched after a clear drop on the sidelines vs. Austin Peay and played just a handful of snaps. We’ll see if he’s back in the good graces of the staff this week if that was in fact a benching, which it appears to have been. RB Jaylen Wright ($6,100) is the preferred option over Jabari Small at a cheaper salary and the fact that he’s just plain better at this stage of his college career. Starting RBs against Florida is not advisable, though, as we saw Week 1 with Ja’Quinden Jackson.
Injury Notes – n/a All good on the injury front for the Vols.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky Pearsall ($6,600) 30% target share wide receivers in college football are fantasy gold typically, even if Graham Mertz is throwing you the football. No other Florida wideout has more than six targets on the year, compared to 20 for Pearsall who’s scored over 40 fantasy points combined in the first two games. The Vols secondary has played very well over the first two weeks, but that’s to be expected when facing Virginia and Austin Peay.
Fade – WR Caleb Douglas ($5,300) Routes run rates remain the same for Douglas last week against McNeese State but was targeted just a single time on the night. There are more talented options waiting in the wings, namely Eugene Wilson who are preferred choices when constructing your lineups. 4-star FR Aidan Mizell also saw considerable work against McNeese State and could challenge Douglas for his starting job.
Bargain Bin – WR Eugene Wilson ($4,700) Started his first game as a Gator, collecting four receptions on four targets. The true freshman 5-star recruit ran as many routes as both Caleb Douglas and Ricky Pearsall last week and would appear his spot is cemented moving forward in the starting lineup.
Pivot Play – QB Graham Mertz ($6,400) Gave serious consideration to the over on Mertz’ prop bet this week at 204.5 passing yards. Why? Very real chance this game plays out like the Utah matchup in Week 1 where the Gators are forced to throw in a trailing position. And the wide receiver group is improved with a clear WR1 and a 5-star freshman in the starting lineup. No, I won’t play Mertz, but he scored 18 fantasy points the first two weeks, and you might take that at just $6.4k in smaller contests.
Best of the Rest – Florida backfield. 18 carries a piece between Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, with the slight edge to the latter in the passing game with five receptions on five targets. 6-3 edge in favor of Johnson for red-zone carries. I’d lean rolling with neither player against this Tennessee front that stymied its first two opponents on the ground.
Injury Notes – WR Kahleil Jackson ($5,000) Jackson sat out last week with a lower body injury but is not listed on the injury report for the matchup with the Vols. Wilson, mentioned above started in his place, but I don’t think the coaches are looking backward at this point. Especially with Billy Napier already on the hot seat, you’re rolling with the 5-star Wilson ahead of a former walk-on in the starting lineup.
Northern Illinois vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -13
O/U Total: 42
Implied Score: Neb 27.5 – NIU 14.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Kacper Rutkiewicz ($5,500) This NIU grad is ready to clean house and fire the entire coaching staff after last week’s debacle against Southern Illinois. Thomas Hammock needed a bounce back season after finishing 3-9 in 2022. Not great, Bob. On the plus side, the junior slot receiver has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal offensive showing for NIU, leading the team in targets, yards, touchdowns, and receptions. Nebraska has given up the 7th most fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs through two games.
Fade – QB Rocky Lombardi ($6,500) NIU will be in a trailing position most likely so game script will be working in Lombardi’s favor but he’s shown us nothing to this point in 2023 that leads us to believe this offense will have success on the road against a B1G opponent. Even one as poor defensively as Nebraska. It would not surprise me to see Lombardi replaced at some point this season to get a look at younger options for the future.
Bargain Bin – TE Chris Carter ($3,000) Don’t know anything about Carter aside that he’s 6-foot-7, a Howard University transfer, and has caught five passes on six targets through two weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Trayvon Rudolph ($5,200) The junior receiver has been overshadowed in the box score by Rutkiewicz, but NIU isn’t slow-playing Rudolph since coming back from injury. Still second on the team in routes run among receivers. We know the kind of explosiveness Rudolph can bring to the table, it’s a matter of the QB getting him the football consistently. The Huskies are having a difficult time running the football too in 2023, so this sets up for 30+ pass attempts…for better or worse.
Best of the Rest – RB Antario Brown ($5,200) Volume certainly wasn’t the issue for Brown last week, accumulating 22 carries in the loss. The OL is not getting the job done unfortunately. 92nd in Line Yards, 90th in Stuff Rate and 87th in rush play success rate. Of the two defensive components, Nebraska has been far better at stopping the run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – RB Gabe Ervin Jr. ($5,500) Somewhat quiet day from Ervin last week with 77 yards on 16 carries, but his usage against Colorado and moving forward is what is intriguing. Backup Rahmir Johnson did get 11 rushing attempts, but many of those came in garbage time. Anthony Grant didn’t see the field after his costly fumble against Minnesota in Week 1. NIU has been horrendous against the run, ranking 124th in Rush D success rate. I’d imagine they lean heavily on Ervin with potentially a new starting QB.
Fade – RB Anthony Grant ($4,800) For reasons stated above. Zero snaps against Colorado. And he was healthy.
Bargain Bin – TE Thomas Fidone ($3,800) 4-star recruit that’s been marred by injuries to start his college career but posted two receptions on four targets with his first career touchdown against Colorado.
Pivot Play – Rostering any Nebraska WRs. They’re all at attainable prices, and the trio of Billy Kemp IV, Marcus Washington and Alex Bulloch are the only ones getting considerable playing time. But the Huskers are passing the football just 37% of the time, and don’t see that increasing much, if at all, with a backup quarterback. Having one in your lineup is fine. Do NOT stack multiple Nebraska receivers.
Best of the Rest – RB Rahmir Johnson ($4,900) With Anthony Grant seemingly out of the picture, Johnson is the clear-cut RB2 now behind Irvin. Should this game get out of hand against the hapless Huskies, Johnson should get double-digit carries.
Injury Notes – QB Jeff Sims ($6,200) Even with Sims questionable, our fearless leader and resident Nebraska fan Joe DiSalvo has inserted Heinrich Haarberg ($5,700) into the projections. Mostly because it does appear that Sims will sit on Saturday despite the coaches remaining mum on official word, but also because he’s sick of seeing Sims turning over the football to cost his beloved Cornhuskers games. I can’t imagine they put too much on Haarberg’s plate in a must win game Saturday, but from the little we saw against Colorado in garbage time, he does have some wheels.
Georgia Tech vs. Ole Miss
Point-Spread: Miss -18
O/U Total: 63
Implied Score: Miss 40.5 – GT 23
Weather: 80 degrees / 11% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($6,600) One of the bigger surprises in college football so far this early into the year has been the Georgia Tech offense, specifically King who’s scored 27 or more fantasy points in each of the first two games. Thought there might be some growing pains considering two new starters at receiver, a new QB, new starting RB and new offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, but the Jackets hit the ground running immediately. The Ole Miss secondary isn’t anything that would force you to shy away from King, rankings 68th in pass D success rate.
Fade – RB Dontae Smith ($5,800) The initial starter on the team’s opening depth chart seems to have been surpassed by better options in Trevion Cooley and Jamal Haynes. Both of which are also cheaper on DK. Smith saw the same amount of snaps as a freshman fourth stringer last week.
Bargain Bin – WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($3,000) With multiple injuries at the receiver position, Singleton saw extended playing time against South Carolina State, leading the team in yards (69) and targets (6). The true freshman has now caught a touchdown in each of the first two games, though I don’t think he’s considered a starter even with the depleted WR group.
Pivot Play – WR Dom Blaylock ($4,500) The former Georgia transfer converted on all four of his targets last week, including a touchdown. Blaylock now leads all Tech receivers in routes run this season, likely due to the connection with Faulkner calling the plays.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Rutherford ($5,000) Undoubtedly Georgia Tech’s WR1 ever since the spring game when he caught two touchdown passes. Rutherford now leads the team in receptions (10) and targets (14). Two Tulane wide receivers scored double-digit fantasy points last week against the Ole Miss secondary and that was with a backup quarterback. We definitely like the over on Haynes King passing yards this week (222.5) but would probably still stick with just one Georgia Tech WR in your lineup. I hadn’t heard of RB Jamal Haynes ($4,500) prior to the season, but he’s been excellent in his transition from WR to RB, averaging over eight yards a carry through two games, along with six receptions. Georgia Tech is gaining 221 yards per game on the ground thus far.
Injury Notes – WR Chase Lane ($4,700) We need to get the projection sheet updated because Chase Lane has already been ruled out for Saturday, as has redshirt freshman DJ Moore.
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($8,500) The projection makes Judkins an auto-play, but I have my reservations. The offensive line has been sub-par through two weeks, ranking 98th in stuff rate and 76th in line yards. The Rebels are just 69th in rush play success rate despite playing two non-P5 teams. I’m not saying fade Judkins by any stretch, particularly with a depleted WR room, but there’s some cause for concern moving forward for the consensus CFF RB1.
Fade – RB Ulysses Bentley ($4,900) 11 carries have gone to Ole Miss running backs not named Quinshon Judkins. This should be a competitive matchup with the upstart Yellow Jackets so I would imagine Ole Miss leaning on their stud running back much of the night.
Bargain Bin – WR Dayton Wade ($3,800) Wade will be a VERY popular selection for the Night Slate after his 7-106-0 performance against Tulane on nine targets. His pricing is simply too low with a 17.9-point projection because of Tre Harris being out. On the other hand…
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Watkins ($6,300) Watkins will be the ultimate pivot play on the slate with Dayton Wade garnering heavy ownership. For the season, Watkins leads the team in targets, receptions and routes run. In fact, one of the bold predictions this week from the Ole Miss beat writer is that Watkins goes off for 150 receiving yards. The question will be if we can stack the Ole Miss WRs. The Rebels are 7th nationally in success rate when throwing the football and 4th in EPA/per play.
Best of the Rest – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,500) Those stats above are very notable considering Dart was in a perceived quarterback competition all the way leading up to Week 1. Given some of the struggles along the offensive line, stacking some of the Ole Miss passing game and fading Judkins would be a way to differentiate yourself in GPPs. Georgia Tech allowed 26 fantasy points in the opener to Jack Plummer. TE Michael Trigg ($3,800) caught a touchdown last week and will get another start at tight end with Prieskorn out.
Injury Notes – WRs Tre Harris and Zakhari Franklin are not expected to play, along with tight end Caden Prieskorn. Walking wounded among the Ole Miss pass-catchers.
Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: WV -3
O/U Total: 48
Implied Score: WV 25.5 – Pitt 22.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – WR Bub Means ($5,000) I don’t think I’ve EVER seen a stat line like Bub Means had last week against Cincinnati. 11 targets, which led the team, and not a single catch. No drops either, just a goose egg. The aDOT is a huge reason why at 21.4 yards as Phil Jurkovec struggles to complete passes down the field. I did find it extremely notable that bettors also noticed this volume in the passing game and bumped his receiving prop to over 50 yards after starting in the 30s. I think Means could be an under owned sleeper this week.
Fade – QB Phil Jurkovec ($6,900) Is there any reason we need to do a deep dive here? West Virginia is 18th in Pass D success rate. Pitt is 111th in success rate throwing the football. Jurkovec completed 32% of his passes last week. Hard pass.
Bargain Bin – n/a. We’re not sure anyone $5.0k and up on the Panthers is a good play, so we’re definitely not suggesting anyone lower than that.
Pivot Play – RB Rodney Hammond ($5,700) From a College Fantasy standpoint, Hammond has been one of the biggest busts so far in the 2023 season with Pittsburgh essentially splitting the backfield three ways. We’re still remembering back to Week 1 last season when Hammond was on the verge of taking the staring job away from Israel Abanikanda before getting injured. Coincidentally, it was against this same West Virginia team when Hammond was at his best, rushing for 74 yards and two scores. I wouldn’t risk it in this matchup in what’s likely to be a lower-scoring affair, but Hammond has the talent to easily surpass his salary.
Best of the Rest – WR Konata Mumpfield ($5,700) Second on the team in targets (9) and routes run, while accounting for two of the five receiving touchdowns. Would only roster one of Mumpfield or Bub Means if choosing a Pitt receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Donaldson ($6,200) We’ll throw out last week in the 40-point blowout of Duquesne. In a competitive matchup with Penn State in the opener, Donaldson got the lion’s share of the carries and found the end-zone. Not surprisingly, West Virginia ranks very well running the football with five returning starters along the offensive line. 6th in rush play success rate. They’ll find some success against this Pitt run defense.
Fade – RB Jaylen Anderson ($5,200) For reasons stated above. Against Penn State in the opener, Donaldson accounted for 78% of the rushing attempts that went to Mountaineer running backs. Vegas line indicates this will be a close contest so we expect WVU will lean on their best player on offense.
Bargain Bin – WR Hudson Clement ($3,000) So, Devin Carter is expected back on Saturday. How does that change Clement’s outlook because they play the same position, at least according to PFF. I would think he gets relegated back to a reserve role, but how do you put 177 yards and three scores back on the bench? Looking at some quotes from HC Neal Brown this week, he stated that Carter would be back in the starting lineup at the “Z” position with Clement getting rotational reps at the “X”.
Pivot Play – WR Devin Carter ($5,800) The NC State transfer is expected back this week after not playing vs. Duquesne and is the established WR1 on the team. That’s been the case since arriving in the spring, and Carter displayed it against Penn State with 90 yards on a team-high eight targets. Similar to Pitt above, we wouldn’t roster more than one West Virginia receiver in a lineup. West Virginia is 107th in pass play percentage and would choose to keep the ball on the ground.
Best of the Rest – QB Garrett Greene ($7,000) A dual-threat quarterback at $7k with a 23-point projection will always get our attention, but just don’t get the good vibes in rostering Greene here. Under 60% completion rate in each of the first two weeks, facing a Pitt secondary that limited Emory Jones to just 13.7 fantasy points. Might not seem like much but the Cincy quarterback hit 50+ fantasy points the week prior. This feels like a slugfest where we don’t roster anyone from either team.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: Cuse -2.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Cuse 30 – Purd 27.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 19% rain / 6 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Shrader ($7,300) Would normally avoid Shrader on the road, likely without his top playmaker at receiver, but Syracuse had some of their younger wideouts step up in last week in the win over Western Michigan. Purdue has also been vulnerable against the pass so far, allowing 30 fantasy points in Week 1 to Mikey Keene and are 111th in pass D success rate.
Fade – RB Juwaun Price ($5,300) Syracuse’s first two games of the season have not been competitive. We have a 2.5-point spread with the Orange travelling on the road for the first time. I suspect LeQuint Allen will receive the bulk of the carries on Saturday night.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Would not play anyone below $5k unless we’re told Gadsden is healthy.
Pivot Play – RB LeQuint Allen ($5,500) The Boilermakers have been far better at stopping the run vs. the pass through two games, allowing just 12.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 19th in rush D success rate. A bit surprised we haven’t seen Allen featured much in the passing game yet with just two targets. Remember he was targeted 14 times in the bowl game loss to Minnesota last season. Wonder if we see more of that on Saturday as the backfield rotation shrinks in a competitive matchup.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The notion was that Gadsden was the entire passing offense, but actually doesn’t appear to be the case after checking in with the Syracuse coverage, as some of the younger receivers have stepped up in his absence. Former 4-star recruit Umari Hatcher ($5,100) leads the team in yards, targets and routes run this season, while averaging over 20 yards per catch. He’s the top choice, but Donovan Brown ($5,000) and Isaiah Jones ($5,400) have been equally as impressive. Jones leads the team with two TDs, while Brown scored on an 86-yard pass play last week vs. Western Michigan.
Injury Notes – TE Oronde Gadsden ($3,800) Difficult time envisioning Gadsden playing on Saturday as he left last week’s contest in a boot and on crutches. In the miraculous event that he does play against Purdue, he’s the play of the week at this price. Dino Babers provided no update this week.
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – QB Hudson Card ($6,100) Nothing jumps out off the stat sheet for Card, but he’s been very solid through two games, completing 63% of his throws for 502 yards and two scores with zero turnovers. His 19-point projection doesn’t jump off the page either here, but we have a home underdog quarterback (game script), who is mobile, at a very reasonable price. Card probably won’t break the slate, but 19 fantasy points should be his floor here, playing in an Air Raid offense.
Fade – RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($4,800) Same argument with LeQuint Allen above. In a competitive matchup, the rotations shrink and think we see mostly Devin Mockobee in the Purdue backfield.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($4,700) Don’t know anything about Max Klare, outside of him leading the Boilermakers with 8-64-0 on nine targets last week vs. Virginia Tech. He gets a mention here because starter Garrett Miller was back in the lineup last week after missing the opener, though he only played a handful of snaps. Does that increase this week, limiting Klare’s value?
Pivot Play – WR Deion Burks ($4,700) Trying not to take a ton out of last week’s performance from Burks, as that game was out of sorts from the jump with a 5-hour rain delay. After the breakout Week 1 performance with 150+ yards, Burks was limited to just one catch on three targets despite running the most routes of any Purdue receiver against Virginia Tech. Buy-low option for Saturday with suppressed ownership?
Best of the Rest – RB Devin Mockobee ($6,700) Was caught off guard this week when a CFFSite Discorder asked if they should drop Devin Mockobee. The numbers aren’t eye-popping, but the former walk-on has been as solid as he was a year ago, dominating the volume share in the Purdue backfield (67%) with a touchdown in each of the first two games. Advantage goes to the Syracuse defensive front in this matchup as they’ve been very good against the run, albeit against Colgate and Western Michigan, ranking No. 3 in rush D success rate. WMU’s Jalen Buckley had a 75-yard run last week against the Orange. His other seven carries netted him just 12 yards.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Ark -8.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Ark 28 – BYU 19.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 4% rain / 7 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – WR Chase Roberts ($5,100) Strong start to the year for the 6-foot-4 sophomore who some thought could be the WR1 for the Cougars this year even when Kody Epps was healthy. Appears those folks were onto something as Roberts leads the team with 11 receptions on 15 targets. His value is downgraded slightly if the BYU receiving corps is at full strength. Roberts’ value is upgraded significantly if multiple starters do not play.
Fade – RB Aidan Robbins ($5,100) After rushing for 1,000 yards last season for UNLV, it appears Robbins has fallen all the way to third-string on the BYU depth chart. I know that the staff loves LJ Martin, the true freshman, but this steep of a fall for a former 1,000-yard rusher seems strange this early in the year.
Bargain Bin – WR Darius Lassiter ($4,400) For many of the same reasons we said above with Roberts. We like this former Eastern Michigan transfer a lot more if some other BYU receivers are listed as out. 6-98-1 on eight targets vs. Southern Utah and played starter reps in the Week 1 opener against SHSU. I still like Lassiter here is Keanu Hill winds up playing, but gets downgraded if everyone is available.
Pivot Play – RB LJ Martin ($4,500) I can’t see myself rostering Martin much in any of my DFS lineups in this situation, but the coaching staff continues to rave about the true freshman. The former 4-star recruit out of Texas is averaging over five yards a carry with 60% of his rushing yards coming after first contact. Arkansas has allowed just 14 fantasy points total in two games to opposing running backs.
Best of the Rest – QB Kedon Slovis ($6,700) Great performance from Slovis last week, throwing for 348 yards with five total touchdowns…against Southern Utah. His Week 1 stat line against Sam Houston State – who it turns out has a very good defense – is more of what we expect out of the former USC and Pitt transfer. Slovis’ experience at the P5 level should help him in this road spot against an SEC foe, but we’re removing him from the QB pool of options. Net negative as a runner and low team total.
Injury Notes – WR Kody Epps ($5,500) Confusing situation here where Kilani Sitake said early in the week that Epps would play on Saturday. On Thursday, OC Aaron Roderick stated Epps is no sure thing to suit up. Wait and see I suppose. There was no mention of WR Keanu Hill ($4,800) who was considered day-to-day at one point. Would lean towards him playing.
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,500) Jefferson was rusty last week against Kent State – playing lowly MAC teams early in the season lulls you to sleep sometimes – throwing for just 136 yards in the win over Kent State. We think the offense opens up the playbook a bit more this week as the Razorbacks get their star quarterback ready for SEC play next week. Jefferson did torch this BYU secondary just a year ago, throwing for 367 yards and five touchdowns. I don’t think this will be that high scoring of a contest, but expect a solid statistical outing out of Jefferson here.
Fade – WR Isaiah Sategna ($4,300) With so much turnover at receiver entering 2023, I’m really surprised the 4-star recruit hasn’t made more of an impact. But Sategna is fifth on the team among receivers in routes run and has essentially just been relegated to return duties on special teams.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Hasz ($3,900) The 4-star true freshman was a named that popped early in the spring as a potential difference maker. The Razorbacks then added North Texas transfer Var’Keyes Gumms and his 40 receptions from 2022 in the summer, left us thinking that Hasz would be a potential redshirt candidate. Not the case as he’s gobbling up all the snaps at the tight end position with no sight of Gumms. Was targeted three times last week.
Pivot Play – RB AJ Green ($5,500) Would lean more towards fading Green on Saturday. BYU is allowing just 2.4 yards per carry to opponents so far, and there are real threats to Green’s scoring opportunities with third-stringer Dominque Johnson coming in on goal-line packages. KJ Jefferson and his vulturing capabilities in the red-zone are also there.
Best of the Rest – WRs. This was the biggest question mark entering the season for the Arkansas offense, and they’ve answered the bell so far. Arkansas isn’t a high-volume passing attack, but they continue to take a lot of deep shots down the field, where Jefferson is 5-of-11 for 152 yards so far on passes 20+ yards or more. Top two targets have been a pair of transfers in Isaac TeSlaa ($4,900) and Andrew Armstrong ($5,300), both of whom stand 6-foot-4. Armstrong leads the team with three TD receptions and 66% of his receptions have been 10+ yards or more downfield. TeSlaa is fourth nationally in contested catches already.
Injury Notes – RB Rocket Sanders ($6,000) Was announced out again this week. To be expected. Next week is where things get interesting as Arkansas travels to LSU where they’ll need their star running back.
Akron vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -26
O/U Total: 50
Implied Score: UK 38 – Akr 12
Weather: 73 degrees / 24% rain / 7 mph winds
Akron:
We’re only looking at the receivers here for the Zips. If QB DJ Irons ($5,000) was off to a better start this season, maybe we’d give him some consideration, but he was replaced last week in a performance-related move, not injury. Akron had three receivers last season with at least 90 targets, and we look to be headed that way again with Alex Adams ($4,900), Daniel George ($4,500) and Jasaiah Gathings ($3,900) combining for nearly 60% of the team’s total target share. Would only invest in one Akron wideout given the low total, but all of them are in play here. Adams (LSU) and George (Penn State) are former P5 transfers.
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Ray Davis ($6,800) The Zips actually have graded out very well at defending the run so far, but that happens when facing Temple (can’t run worth a damn) and an FCS opponent. Ray Davis is a different challenge. There was some concern last week after leaving the game with a jammed finger, but no changes on the depth chart so I think we avoided any detrimental injury. Davis is dominating the touch distribution in the UK backfield with 68% of the volume share.
Fade – RB JuTahn McClain ($5,200) See above. Kentucky’s played Ball State and Eastern Kentucky in the first two games, and McClain still hasn’t seen much action. Ramon Jefferson is also back which congests the UK backfield behind Davis.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Would not consider anyone below $5k here. Kentucky hasn’t necessarily been dominating significantly weaker opponents in the first two weeks, so we really haven’t been able to see some of the backups get extended playing time.
Pivot Play – WR Tayvion Robinson ($5,700) The slot receiver connection with offensive coordinator Liam Coen is alive and well. Robinson remains third on the team in targets (11) but had his best performance in a Kentucky uniform last week with 136 yards and two scores on seven targets. Robinson should not be priced higher than either WR Barion Brown ($5,500) or WR Dane Key ($5,000), but DK is easily influenced by one performance apparently. The other pivot play here would be to stack two Kentucky receivers in the same lineup. Which ones is up to you, but the top three are dominating the team target share at a combined 68%. No other receivers are getting significant run.
Best of the Rest – QB Devin Leary ($8,700) I played Leary last week against Eastern Kentucky thinking he’d light the place up with his trio of talented receivers. He reached value with 26 fantasy points, throwing for 299 yards and four scores, but it was a struggle to get there with Kentucky’s slow start in the first half. Akron hasn’t faced anyone to date with the firepower of the Wildcats, but the Zips are 12th in pass D success rate nationally through two weeks. I’m looking elsewhere at quarterback.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU vs. Houston
Point-Spread: TCU -7
O/U Total: 64
Implied Score: TCU 35.5 – Hou 28.5
Weather: 87 degrees / 31% rain / 5 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Chandler Morris ($7,200) I was surprised in Week 1 when Houston limited UTSA quarterback Frank Harris to just 14 fantasy points. We see now that had a lot to do with the UTSA offense as opposed to the performance of the Houston secondary. Albeit in two overtimes, but you cannot allow 400 passing yards and three touchdowns to JT Daniels. Houston now ranks 111th in pass D success rate. Was very unimpressed by Morris in the Week 1 performance against Colorado as he was inaccurate and tentative, but still wound up scoring 26 fantasy points based on volume alone. He’s arguably the top QB choice on the slate.
Fade – WRs. TCU might have the messiest wide receiver room in the country from a fantasy standpoint. 11 different Horned Frog receivers have caught at least one pass this season. Leading target getter Warren Thompson accounts for just 14% of the target share. Too spread out to trust anyone here. Three TCU beat writers were asked in the game preview who would lead the team in receptions on Saturday. Unsurprisingly, all three gave different answers. Paints a clear picture of this situation.
Bargain Bin – TE Jared Wiley ($4,100) Tied for the team lead with Warren Thompson in targets (10) and leads all TCU pass catchers in snaps played and routes run in 2023.
Pivot Play – RB Trey Sanders ($4,800) Unsure as to the reasoning behind it, Sanders was limited to just 13 yards on five carries against Nicholls. Performance related, injury or otherwise? Don’t know. But we do distinctly remember the Week 1 performance where Sanders basically handled all the red-zone opportunities for TCU, subbing in for Emani Bailey. Does that take place again vs. Houston?
Best of the Rest – RB Emani Bailey ($6,500) At least between the 20s, Bailey is the clear-cut RB1 for TCU, averaging over six yards a carry for the season. Just have to hope that the 19-5 disparity in rushing attempts continues over Trey Sanders as it did a week ago. The Cougars rank 68th in rush D success rate through two games, not terrible, but allowing two Rice running backs to score 20 fantasy points against you? That is terrible.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Donovan Smith ($8,000) Smith is the epitome of college fantasy football in that you don’t have to be a very good player to be a good fantasy option. The former Texas Tech transfer is averaging 30.8 fantasy points through two weeks, yet Houston is 80th in pass play success rate and 115th in EPA per pass play. What works in Smith’s favor is a trio of talented receivers at his disposal and his rushing usage with double-digit carries in each of the first two games. Smith also leads the team in red-zone carries.
Fade – WR Joshua Cobbs ($4,900) Thought the Wyoming transfer would have more of an impact but we have a condensed target funnel with the top three wideouts garnering 71% of the targets.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Would not use anyone below $5k on the Cougars.
Pivot Play – WR Matthew Golden ($6,700) It does appear that WR Sam Brown ($6,400) is the WR1A for the Cougars, but Golden isn’t far behind, leading the team with 21 targets. The inconsistency and drops have been maddening, though. Team-high three drops and just a 42.9% conversion rate. Brown, meanwhile, doesn’t have a single drop and converting on 89% of the targets coming in his direction. I’m not opposed to having both in your lineup. But can say with certainty that Brown will have more ownership than Golden tonight.
Best of the Rest – RBs. TCU has allowed the sixth most fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs, but much of that stems from the 44-point outburst from freshman phenom Dylan Edwards in the opening week. We’re seeing a 50-50 split in the Houston backfield with Tony Mathis Jr. and Stacy Sneed, with very little separation between the two. Neither player is the preferred option either at the goal line – that belongs to Donovan Smith.
Injury Notes – n/a
