Florida State vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: FSU -26
O/U Total: 48
Implied Score: FSU 37 – BC 11
Weather: 62 degrees / 49% rain / 26 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Trey Benson ($6,600) Some folks out there believe this is an RBBC, yet Benson is still commanding 43% of the backfield market share, so I question their analysis on that. After a quiet Week 1 performance, Benson rebounded with three rushing TDs vs. Southern Miss. I’m expecting another solid week against a Boston College defense that is allowing 43.3 FPPG to opposing backfields through two games and are 99th in rush play success rate.
Fade – WR Winston Wright ($5,800) Simply too expensive here. The Seminoles’ coaching staff is giving a lot of looks to some of the younger receivers early in the year, all of whom have been on the field equally as much and at a discounted price. Florida State is also featuring two-tight end sets with Jaheim Bell and Kyle Morlock more than running 3- or 4-wide at receiver which takes Wright off the field.
Bargain Bin – WR Darion Williamson ($3,800) After barely playing vs. LSU, Williamson ran the second most routes among FSU receivers against Southern Miss, converting on his two targets with a touchdown. Was this a result of Johnny Wilson’s poor showing or a sign of things to come? As we mentioned with Wright, we’re spending down on FSU receivers not names Johnny Wilson or Keon Coleman in a potential blowout situation.
Pivot Play – WR Johnny Wilson ($7,200) Rough outing Wilson against Southern Miss with zero catches on five targets. Didn’t watch this game and wasn’t credited with any drops on Pro Football Focus but sounds like Wilson had opportunities that he simply didn’t make last week. Practice reports suggest Wilson made up for that early in the week. Tough to fathom spending up to this price when Keon Coleman ($6,300) is $900 cheaper, but that just means lower ownership numbers. So far, the top two FSU receivers are dominating the target share at 50%.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Travis ($9,700) There’s another QB option we’ll mention later in this writeup that makes Travis’ pricing here attainable. And at a projection of 28 points, its more than reasonable to roster the senior QB. Boston College is allowing just 12.3 FPPG to QB1s through two games, but have faced Rocky Lombardi and an FCS quarterback, so take that number with a grain of salt. This implied team total for Florida State probably isn’t high enough to roster both Travis and Benson together so have to choose one.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – QB Thomas Castellanos ($5,700) Considering Castellanos is the only BC player we have projected to score double-digit fantasy points; this was an easy selection. Reality is we’re not rostering anyone here with the low implied team total, particularly a quarterback, though Castellanos does have the one redeeming quality from a fantasy QB in that he can run – over 3,600 rushing yards in his high school career.
Fade – WR Ryan O’Keefe ($5,400) The only appeal here is that O’Keefe does get targets out of the slot which is more beneficial in DK’s full-point PPR format, as opposed to FD. But his utilization won’t generate a ton of fantasy value unless those targets increase exponentially, as O’Keefe is averaging just 7.1 YPC with a 2.4 aDOT. He would need at least five receptions probably to reach value.
Bargain Bin – WR Lewis Bond ($3,700) Appears as though Bond has taken over one of the outside starting receiver positions opposite Joseph Griffin and has been one of the few bright spots for BC with nine receptions on a team-high 14 targets.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Griffin ($5,100) To reiterate, we’re not playing anyone on the BC side. But the talented 6-foot-4 sophomore does lead all receivers in routes run for the Eagles and, unlike O’Keefe, doesn’t need a ton of targets to reach value. Averaged over 13 YPC last season. Just not in sync right now with the current crop of BC quarterbacks apparently with just eight targets.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Not considering anyone not listed in this section.
Injury Notes – RB Pat Garwo ($5,600) was seen in a walking boot after just two carries last week. HC Jeff Hafley provided zero clarity. Wouldn’t consider Garwo if even healthy. RB Alex Broome ($5,000) did not play at all last week. Should neither player be available, Western Kentucky transfer Kye Robichaux ($4,700) would get the nod after rushing for 94 yards on 19 attempts last week. Advanced numbers are showing the BC run game to be performing far better than last year…so far. Difficulty of opponents the first two weeks must be taken into account.
Louisville vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: UL -10
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UL 30 – IU 20
Weather: 71 degrees / 3% rain / 3 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Jamari Thrash ($5,300) DK apparently doesn’t know how to properly list Jeff Brohm WR1s. Take advantage this week as Thrash is arguably the top play on the slate given his pricing + projection. Unsurprisingly, the Georgia State transfer is dominating the target share (24%) – a number we expect to rise considerably with the competitive matchups ahead – and has three of the team’s five receiving touchdowns. FWIW, the Indiana secondary is playing well through two games, allowing just 11.8 FPPG to opposing WR1s. Marvin Harrison Jr. was nearly invisible in the Week 1 matchup, though much of that was due to poor QB play.
Fade – Isaac Guerendo ($4,600) Solid performance last week from the Wisconsin transplant, rushing for 63 yards and a touchdown, while adding four receptions in the passing game. The issue is Maurice Turner is coming back from injury and was considered the RB2 behind Jawhar Jordan pre-injury.
Bargain Bin – WR Jimmy Calloway ($4,100) Second on the team in both targets and routes run this season as he’s locked up the starting job opposite Thrash over sophomore Chris Bell. Just an eight-point projection, but if the secondary shades over to double Thrash, the former Tennessee transfer should benefit.
Pivot Play – RB Jawhar Jordan ($5,500) The overall numbers through two weeks are that Indiana has been far better against the run than the pass, ranking 75th in rush D success rate and 16.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Limited opportunities for Jordan with just seven carries in each of the first two games, and that might not change much with Turner back in the lineup as stated above, but his explosiveness is undeniable. Averaging 16 yards per carry.
Best of the Rest – QB Jack Plummer ($6,600) Cheap enough to consider, and Plummer should throw the ball 30+ times this week in a relatively competitive matchup. We only have a 20-point projection here given the strength of the Indiana secondary (so far) so we don’t advise going overboard in rostering him in multiple lineups. WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,800) was in a heated battle for the starting slot with Kevin Coleman but seems to have separated himself ever so slightly from a playing time perspective. Wonder if that changes in the coming weeks as Coleman has been the more productive player. Since the passing game hasn’t taken flight just yet this season under Brohm, I’d heavily lean towards just one Louisville receiver in your lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaylin Lucas ($4,700) Lucas won’t ever be a bell-cow with his stature at 170 pounds but is undoubtedly the team’s top playmaker on offense (with Camper not healthy). He showed that last week with over 100 total yards on just 14 touches. His versatility as a runner/receiver/returner is what brings value.
Fade – QB Tayven Jackson ($7,100) Jackson priced higher than Plummer is an interesting choice this week, despite the former Tennessee transfer being named the full-time starter moving forward, winning the competition with Brendan Sorsby. Did some good things against Indiana State in limited time, completing over 80% of his throws but we only have a 15-point projection here. I’d only consider if you truly think this IU/Louisville game could shoot out (it won’t). In terms of success rate against the pass, Louisville somehow ranks No. 1 in the country. We usually need three weeks of evidence before taking these advanced metrics to heart.
Bargain Bin – WR Omar Cooper ($4,000) After barely playing against Ohio State, Cooper broke out last Friday with 101 yards receiving on 10 targets. Cooper’s production was in direct correlation with another injury suffered by Cam Camper who left the contest against Indiana State with what was described as a lower body injury. As of Wednesday writing this, I haven’t seen an update on his status. Would lower exposure to Cooper if Camper is in the lineup.
Pivot Play – WR Donaven McCulley ($4,200) The former QB turned WR received praise from his head coach this week on the consistency McCulley has brought to the position. And his playing time reflects that as he leads the Hoosiers in routes run so far this season. Minimal production, but McCulley feels entrenched as the starter opposite Camper/Cooper on the outside. Leading the team with a 15.5 aDOT.
Best of the Rest – RB Josh Henderson ($5,200) Don’t really understand why Henderson is priced $500 more than Lucas when the latter has more carries, yards, receptions and offensive snaps. Indiana is a true RBBC, though, and Henderson has shown his value in year’s past as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield.
Injury Notes – Look for updates on Cam Camper pregame.
Kansas State vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: KSU -4
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: KSU 26 – Mizzou 22
Weather: 69 degrees / 11% rain / 7 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Howard ($8,200) At some point, I do think the Kansas State run game will dominate an opponent with their two backs and experienced offensive line. But tough to take the ball out of the hands of one of the best QBs in the country to start the year. 27.5-point projection at this pricing makes Howard a strong candidate for our lineups. It’s not the passing that has me most intrigued; it’s the utilization in the run game with three rushing scores. Through two games, Howard has as many rushing attempts inside the red-zone (6) as DJ Giddens does.
Fade – WR Keagan Johnson ($4,700) Not ready to invest DFS capital for the Iowa transfer yet, despite converting on all three of his targets last week. HC Chris Klieman stated they want to see how he practices Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing his reps after just one game back. Tough to take Jadon Jackson off the field given he’s scored a touchdown in each of the first two games. They’ll likely split snaps again vs. a very good secondary.
Bargain Bin – TE Ben Sinnott ($4,500) Wouldn’t go below $4.5k on any Kansas State player this week facing a Top 15 defense in the country. Sinnott had his five game-streak of double-digit fantasy performances come to an end last week vs. Troy. His apparent connection with Will Howard the last 6-7 games keeps him in play each week at this pricing. Sinnott has played more offensive snaps than any skill player not named Will Howard.
Pivot Play – RB Treshaun Ward ($6,200) We mentioned above the red-zone opportunities for both Howard and DJ Giddens ($5,700). Through two games, Ward leads the team in that category (9) despite being slighter in stature than both of those players. Missouri has played two cupcakes so far but are allowing just 4.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s and rank 6th in rush D success rate. Toughest test, by far, for the Tigers facing an OL that returns all five starters.
Best of the Rest – WR Phillip Brooks ($5,700) and RJ Garcia ($5,200) The starting WR duo is dominating the target share right now for K-State at 52%. No other wideout has more than six targets on the year as the Wildcats are mostly in 11-personnel packages (one running back, two receivers, two tight ends).
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($5,900) We mention target share a lot, but that’s because it’s vital when analyzing these teams. Look at an SMU that spreads the ball around to 10 different receivers. Nobody is valuable. Not the case for Missouri where Burden has nine more targets than the next closest receiver, dominating the target share at 42%. We usually look towards receivers at 30% or more. 40% is elite.
Fade – WR Mookie Cooper ($4,400) Cooper’s player prop of 38.5 receiving yards was my easiest win of the season to date, as he wasn’t targeted a single time against Middle Tennessee last week, despite playing over 50% of the offensive snaps. Looks as though his playing time is going to Mekhi Miller now.
Bargain Bin – WR Mekhi Miller ($3,200) See above.
Pivot Play – QB Brady Cook ($6,800) We’re playing Luther Burden solo on the Missouri side as Kansas State ranks among the elites defensively through two games – Yes, Troy was the toughest opponent faced to date which isn’t saying a lot. Cook struggled mightily in this matchup a year ago with just 128 passing yards with two interceptions. What keeps Cook in the player pool is strictly his running ability, as he’s found the end-zone on the ground in each of the first two games.
Best of the Rest – RB Cody Schrader ($7,300) 21 carries per game through two weeks is what we’re accustomed to from a Eli Drinkwitz RB1 over the years. And that is with Nathaniel Peat being healthy as Schrader now has a 2-1 advantage in carries thus far. K-State did allow a chunk play to Kimani Vidal last week as the Troy starter finished with 80+ yards on the ground, but those are few and far in between facing this defense. Rank 7th currently in rush D success rate. I just like to mention WR Theo Wease ($4,800) here because DK has finally decided to list him properly in 2023 after spending years in the $7k range at Oklahoma despite little production on the field. Wease is the clear WR2 behind Burden in terms of targets and routes run.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU vs. Mississippi State
Point-Spread: LSU -9.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: LSU 32.5 – MSU 22
Weather: 79 degrees / 18% rain / 3 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Daniels ($8,600) Even in a bad performance Week 1 vs. Florida State, Daniels still wound up producing 26 fantasy points that night. That’s the floor dual-threat QBs can provide you even when it might be an off night throwing the football. The numbers aren’t great for the Mississippi State defense so far, ranking 93rd in pass D success rate, though they gave Jayden de Laura fits last week, intercepting him three times in the first half. Working in favor of Daniels is the emergence of a 1B at wide receiver, giving him two top tier SEC targets.
Fade – RB Josh Williams ($5,000) This game will be a strong indication I believe in how this backfield will be shaped moving forward. And if it goes the way I think, then Williams might be falling to third or fourth on the depth chart by week’s end. Logan Diggs and prized freshman Kaleb Jackson were the top performers against Grambling with a combined 177 rushing yards and three scores on 27 carries. Williams and Noah Cain had 6 and 7 attempts, respectively.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody below $4.5k that we’d consider.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Nabers ($7,300) Brian Thomas Jr. has gotten the headlines and rightfully so. Truly a 1A and 1B situation now at receiver, but Nabers still does lead the team in routes run and targets (19). That duo combines for 52% of the team’s target share. Based on the two recent performances and pricing, I think most will look to roster Thomas in this matchup, though the numbers between the two aren’t dissimilar. While the duo is dominating the target share, I still don’t feel it necessary to stack the two with Daniels in the passing game. If the game total were higher, I’d give it more consideration.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyren Lacy ($5,200) A distant third in both directions as the WR3. Clear distinction in the top tier with Nabers/Thomas, but Lacy is also in the second tier by himself ahead of the other wideouts on the roster. The former Louisiana transfer has played 61% of offensive snaps this season. Next closest is Aaron Anderson at 34%. Don’t roster any LSU receivers beyond the top three. At running back, Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs ($5,700) has a prime opportunity to cement himself as the LSU RB1 with another strong performance after rushing for 100+ last week. Not surprise that the Tigers’ running game has graded out well so far with five OL starters returning.
Injury Notes – TE Mason Taylor ($3,500) Brian Kelly stated that Taylor is probable this week after leaving the Grambling matchup with injury.
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – RB Jo’Quavious Marks ($6,800) From a personal level, it’s fun to see the real Jo’Quavious Marks run the football in a conventional offense vs. the Air Raid he’s been stuck in the last few years. And he’s raising his pro stock immensely with consecutive 100-yard performances. Taller task against LSU’s front that limited Trey Benson to just 47 carries in Week 1, but also allowed a 100-yard rusher to Grambling. Ground and pound under this new regime where Marks has a 70% volume share through two weeks. Nobody else is carrying the rock. Makes sense given how little tread is on Marks’ tires from just catching the football the last three seasons.
Fade – QB Will Rogers ($7,300) Has to be the lowest projection we’ve ever had for Will Rogers since he’s been at college, sitting at just 196 passing yards. Offense simply isn’t the same under new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay as the Bulldogs are throwing the ball just 33% of the time through two weeks. Game script played a huge role last week as MSU jumped out to a first half lead, spotted by three Jayden de Laura interceptions. Could be the exact opposite on Saturday where the Bulldogs are a 10-point underdog. Right now, Rogers is playing better “real” football than “fantasy” football.
Bargain Bin – WR Creed Whittemore ($3,000) Probably wouldn’t risk this for reasons we describe below, but the freshman did have a tremendous opening game with 4-59-1 on four targets, along with 57 yards rushing and a score. Followed that up by playing 10 snaps against Arizona.
Pivot Play – WR Justin Robinson ($4,800) I hope last Saturday is what we can expect from the Mississippi State receivers moving forward because that’ll make things very easy from a projection standpoint. The three starters of Robinson, Jaden Walley and Lideatrick Griffin were the only receivers to see a target against Arizona. Each played at least 66% of the offensive snaps as there was almost no rotation at the position. Griffin had the big game, but Robinson is the most talented of the bunch in my opinion, despite his slow start. Remember he closed 2022 with a pair of TD receptions in the final three games.
Best of the Rest – WR Lideatrick Griffin ($5,700) Griffin was so undervalued and utilized incorrectly under the previous regime spending most of his playing time outside despite being sub-6-feet tall. Now playing exclusively in the slot, Griffin thrived against Arizona with 83 yards and two scores on a team-high seven targets. For now, it looks like he’s the WR1. I would not use more than one Mississippi State receiver in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. Illinois
Point-Spread: PSU -14.5
O/U Total: 48
Implied Score: PSU 31 – Illini 16.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 6% rain / 7 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Kaytron Allen ($5,800) Situation hasn’t changed since last season – so long as everyone is healthy, we’re going to see a 50-50 split in the Penn State backfield. Allen gets the slightest of nods here from us for two reasons. He does have a slightly higher projection at a lower price as he leads the team in carries by a slight margin. Allen also has a 8-5 lead in red-zone attempts through two games. The Illini have been putrid at defending the run the first two weeks, ranking 128th in rush D success rate and allowing the 37th most fantasy points to RBs in the country. Nick Singleton ($6,300) obviously deserves consideration as well but rarely have the two hit value in the same game vs. P5 opponents. Gotta choose a door.
Fade – TE Theo Johnson ($3,400) It’s difficult keeping track of the inner workings of all 133 teams. But from the outside looking in, it appears as though the former 4-star tight end is no longer the preferred option at the position, at least as a receiver. TE Tyler Warren ($3,800) was listed as the new starter last week and performed well with six receptions and a touchdown. Johnson’s playing time didn’t deviate, but he’s a better in-line blocker than pass catcher.
Bargain Bin – WR Liam Clifford ($4,200) Penn State employs a bunch of two-tight end sets, but when they do go three-wide, Clifford is usually the man on the field in the slot. Just four targets with an aDOT of only 1.8 yards so I have very little interest here.
Pivot Play – QB Drew Allar ($7,900) For as bad as the Illini have been against the run, it hasn’t been much better defending the pass either. QB1s are averaging 25.5 FPPG against Illinois through two games and are ranked 94th in pass D success rate. On the flipside, Allar has been far better than I thought he would be, completing 78% of his throws with four TDs. When I say far better, I should specify that I do mean as a real-life quarterback. As mostly a pocket passer, Allar is capped as far as fantasy potential goes. Probably won’t be throwing it 30+ times – he won’t need to – against this porous Illini run defense.
Best of the Rest – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($6,400) The turnaround for KLS has been a pleasant store to begin 2023. Counted down and out after bringing in multiple transfers over the offseason, Lambert-Smith now leads the team with 10 receptions on 12 targets, averaging just under 20 yards per catch and has established himself as the firm WR1 for the Nittany Lions. WR Harrison Wallace III ($5,000) is second on the team in routes run and targets, though I would only roster one of the Penn State WRs if stacking with Allar. Don’t think this game gets into a shootout.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – QB Luke Altmyer ($6,200) Illinois does not have a Chase Brown to lean on this year in the run game, nor have the Illini been effective running the football outside of Altmyer who is now the team’s leading rusher after two games. 25+ fantasy points scored in b2b games for the former Ole Miss transfer, though this will be the toughest test to date facing a Penn State secondary that is No. 3 in pass D success rate through two weeks. 20-point projection at $6.2k keeps Altmyer as a possibility.
Fade – RBs. They’re cheap at $4.2k a piece, but simply not worth it after watching the first two weeks. Not only do the Illini not have a Chase Brown as RB1, but they don’t even have an effective run game outside of the quarterback. Penn State has allowed just 19.6 fantasy points to opposing RBs in two games combined and are No. 1 in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Would not consider anyone below $5.9k on the Illini side.
Pivot Play – WRs Pat Bryant ($5,800) and Casey Washington ($4,800) Same argument we’ve made for a few teams already in this writeup that the Illini are using condensed rotations right now at the WR position with only Williams, Bryant and Washington seeing considerable playing time. No other wideout played more than 23% of the offensive snaps last week against Kansas.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Williams ($5,900) We know what to expect at this point out of Williams. He’s the clear WR1 and target hog for the Illini at 31% target share. While Williams hasn’t found the end-zone yet, it’s promising that he’s boosted his YPC averaged to 13.6 in 2023. Better chances at scoring opportunities further down and not just a PPR volume play.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia Southern vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -20
O/U Total: 64
Implied Score: Wisc 42 – GSU 20
Weather: 65 degrees / 17% rain / 7 mph winds
Georgia State:
Top Play(s) – WR Derwin Burgess Jr. ($5,900) This isn’t the vaunted Wisconsin defense that we’re so threatened by that we completely avoid Georgia Southern players. And I think the 22 implied team total by Vegas reflects that. Burgess is the team’s top wideout facing a defense that is allowing over 20 FPPG to opposing WR1s through two games and 106th in pass D success rate.
Fade – RB Jalen White ($5,700) Even in a neutral game script, Georgia Southern wants to throw the football. Now add in the fact they’re three touchdown underdogs. Through two weeks, the Eagles rank 9th in pass play percentage at 66%. Don’t see them wanting to run the football much on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – TE Jjay McAfee ($3,400) Think of McAfee like an Oronde Gadsden-lite. Converted receiver at 6-foot-3, 240 pounds that is the fourth option in the passing game behind the top three. Had 10 targets last week in the high-scoring affair with UAB. McAfee only lines up in-line just 60% of the time as a tight end, essentially acting as a fourth receiver.
Pivot Play – Stack Georgia Southern WRs. This isn’t a strategy to employ with every lineup, but I think its something to consider as we’ve mentioned the rate at which Georgia Southern throws the football, combined with the fact this isn’t an impenetrable Wisconsin defense. QB Davis Brin ($6,800) will throw the ball 40-50 times on Saturday. Khaleb Hood ($5,300) and Syracuse transfer WR Anthony Queeley ($4,800) comprise of the top three at wideout. Remember last season when Georgia Southern had three wideouts over 100 targets? That’ll play out similarly in 2023.
Best of the Rest – QB Davis Brin ($6,800) I think stacking the WRs is viable, but probably not with Brin here with just a 20-point projection and that could easily sink a lineup if things go south in Madison. While the passing metrics on the Wisconsin defense aren’t great, they only allowed 21 and 17 fantasy points, respectively, to Cameron Ward and Cole Snyder. Need more than that at $6.8k.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Braelon Allen ($7,500) The simple fact is this was a concern when Wisconsin hired Phil Longo as offensive coordinator as he’s routinely split the workload between his RB1-2 during his time at both Ole Miss and North Carolina. Seems to be the case at Wisconsin as well with two weeks of evidence. Nearly a 20-point projection at this cost keeps Allen in the pool for us, and his usage in the passing game has been a major surprise as the team’s leading target-getter. Mixed bag for the Georgia Southern rush defense, allowing 198 yards in Week 1 to the Citadel, but limited UAB to only 3.17 YPC.
Fade – Tight Ends. Wisconsin has a long-storied tradition of exceptional tight end production. Not this year, and not in this passing scheme. Just five targets combined have gone to the top two tight ends.
Bargain Bin – WR CJ Williams ($3,000) The former USC transfer 4-star recruit saw his reps increase against Washington State last week. Just 10 yards receiving but saw four targets on a significant bump from the week prior. Probably will be a transition period as the California transplant gets used to his new digs but the usage uptick is promising. 4-star at min pricing in a potential blowout is worth considering (still a longshot).
Pivot Play – QB Tanner Mordecai ($7,200) DFS players will be heavy on the Wisconsin backfield as a three-TD favorite. I view it as an opportunity to get this passing game in sync, facing a defense that just allowed 30 fantasy points to Jacob Zeno of UAB. Georgia Southern’s implied team total also makes me think this will be somewhat competitive to where the Badgers can’t just ground and pound their way to victory. Georgia Southern is 126th in pass D success rate so far in the young season.
Best of the Rest – WR Will Pauling ($5,100) Leads all Wisconsin receivers in targets and yardage, and we spoke at length during the offseason that slot WRs have been heavily featured under Longo. WR Chimere Dike ($5,500) and WR Bryson Green ($4,600) lead all Badger receivers in routes run so far. Would only stack one WR max with Mordecai if looking to employ that strategy on Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
Weber State vs. Utah
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 73 degrees / 1% rain / 8 mph winds
Weber State:
Fun fact about Weber State University – In the 1931-32 school year, President Aaron Tracy allowed tuition to be paid with produce and meat instead of money.
Utah:
Top Play(s) – QB Nate Johnson ($4,500) Johnson was moved to the second spot on the depth chart this week, behind Cam Rising, meaning he’s surpassed Bryson Barnes. And if you watched the Baylor game, that was the obvious move by the coaching staff. Assuming Rising doesn’t play in this likely blowout, Johnson will get the starting nod. And if you have a blazing runner like Johnson at min pricing, he’ll be very heavily owned. We’ve seen instances in DFS in the past with min priced quarterbacks seeing heavy ownership and not panning out, but tough time envisioning that with a former 4-star recruit against FCS competition.
Fade – WR Devaughn Vele ($6,200) In a game that’ll likely be heavy run-script, I’m going cheap Utah receivers. And as predicated in the offseason, there are a lot more mouths to feed here at the position with Mycah Bernard, Emery Simmons and prized freshman Mikey Matthews. Spend down here.
Bargain Bin – TE Thomas Yassmin ($3,400) Going to blame the quarterback play here more than Yassmin, as the senior tight end has all of 15 receiving yards in two games. Even with backup QBs, expected more out of Yassmin, particularly with Brant Kuithe out of the lineup. Good opportunity against a lesser opponent to find the scoring column.
Pivot Play – RB Jaylon Glover ($4,900) It was better last week, but the offensive line still hasn’t played up to the Utah standard early in the year. A Week 3 matchup with Weber State in advance of conference play is the perfect time to work on such issues. Glover moves up to RB2 with the season-ending injury to Micah Bernard and would expect anywhere from 8-12 carries on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($6,500) Sigh of relief last week for Jackson owners in CFF as he rushed for 100+ yards on 19 carries in the win. Had two blown opportunities for a touchdown too, with a holding on one run play, followed by a run where the half of the Baylor defense was allowing Jackson to score before someone tackles him. In last year’s blowout win over Southern Utah, we saw the top three running backs combine for five rushing scores. Jackson will get at least one on Saturday.
Injury Notes – Same situation as the first two games. Cam Rising and Brant Kuithe will be game-time decisions, though neither is likely to play. If one does, it is more likely to be Rising as the team prepares for Pac-12 play. Some message board rumors that Kuithe might sit out the year and begin preparations for the NFL Draft.
Central Michigan vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -34.5
O/U Total: 51
Implied Score: ND 42.5 – CMU 8
Weather: 72 degrees / 7% rain / 8 mph winds
Central Michigan:
We’ll give the Chips plenty of attention once we hit MACtion in a few weeks. Not against Notre Dame on the road, though, with a team total of just 10 points. QB Bert Emanuel Jr. ($6,100) is the only player we have projected to score more than seven fantasy points this week.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – QB Sam Hartman ($8,500) Under bettors on Hartman’s season-long props (me) are beginning to get nervous, because the transition to Notre Dame has been flawless. 73% completion rate with 10 touchdowns and zero picks, including no interceptions last week against an NC State defense that Hartman’s historically had troubles with. The biggest question this week is how much of a fight does CMU put up and will that limit Hartman’s playing time to 2-3 quarters only.
Fade – Backup RBs. We’ll see all three backup RBs on Saturday, assuming this game plays out the way we think, but the prices for Gi’Bran Payne, Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price are outrageously expensive. I’d rather just spend up for Audric Estime in the hopes that CMU won’t roll over so the RB1 won’t play just a half. Carries have essentially been split evenly across the board for Payne, Love and Price as well.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaden Greathouse ($4,000) Numbers haven’t jumped out on the stat sheet since the opener against Navy, but Greathouse found the end-zone last week against NC State. The most playing time he’s seen this season came in the Week 2 blowout of Tennessee State, and assuming this matchup plays out similarly, the 4-star freshman will be on the field plenty Saturday.
Pivot Play – TE Holden Staes ($5,100) I had the ND game on the second screen and saw this athletic looking WR/TE hybrid player catching a long touchdown against NC State thinking it was Jaden Greathouse. Nope. Coming into the game with two career receptions, Staes doubled that total in one week, finishing with 115 yards and two touchdowns. Reading up a bit, the expectation isn’t that Staes suddenly will be featured like Michael Mayer was a year ago. But 30 receptions for the season is well within the range of possibilities according to some beat writers. He’s got 26 more to go then.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayden Thomas ($6,200) Quiet game last week for ND’s WR1 with zero catches on three targets. Still believe that Thomas is the team’s top wideout all things considered here and will see low ownership at that cost. We will see a more condensed target share from the Irish as the games become more competitive, but Hartman is really spreading thing around. Thomas and Greathouse are the only ND receivers I would roster for DFS.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northwestern vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Duke -18.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Duke 33.5 – NW 15.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Northwestern:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Porter ($4,300) Signs of life from the Northwestern running game last Saturday with Porter rushing for 90 yards on 17 carries vs. UTEP. Duke is better at defending the run than UTEP, but only marginally. Allowed 27 fantasy points to Will Shipley in the opener and are 118th in rush D success rate. NW will need to find success on the ground with the QB situation in flux.
Fade – QB Ben Bryant ($5,400) Bryant already had little to no value to begin with. Now you’re telling me he’s coming out of the game on situational downs to use backup QB Jack Lausch who rushed for 53 yards on four carries. That diminishes Bryant even further.
Bargain Bin – WR Cam Johnson ($4,200) Grasping at straws here trying to fill in this Northwestern writeup. The former Vanderbilt and Arizona State transfer leads the team in targets and routes run this season. For better or worse, NW will need to throw to keep up as a near 3-TD underdog.
Pivot Play – WR AJ Henning ($4,900) Considering any Northwestern wide receiver is typically a death knell for a DFS lineup. Henning at least provides us with some rushing upside as he’s utilized on jet sweeps as shown a week ago with 35 yards and a score. Tied for first on the team in receptions and second in targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Bryce Kirtz ($4,100) Kirtz is a former high 3-star recruit with talent, but the injury bug has gotten the best of him at points in his career. After not playing in the opener, Kirtz was tied for the team lead in routes run vs. UTEP, commanding five targets in the process. To close, this is likely a full team fade here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($6,700) I take what I said back from above with Jamari Thrash being the smash play of the slate. That would be Leonard at $6.7k and a 27-point projection. Northwestern has been stout against the run so far. Not so much against the pass, ranking 80th in pass D success rate. The Wildcats have allowed just 28 fantasy points combined to opposing QBs in two games, but that’s what happens when you face Gavin Hardison and Gavin Wimsatt.
Fade – n/a. Every starter on the Duke roster is a potential option as they’re priced down this week for some reason.
Bargain Bin – WR Samir Haggans ($3,500) Just six receptions on seven targets, but Hagans has been on the field just as much as both Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore. There is almost zero rotation at wide receiver for the Blue Devils. Those three are always on the field.
Pivot Play – RB Jordan Waters ($5,700) I’ve been dismissive of Waters and that’s been a mistake through the early going. Three touchdowns in two games while averaging eight yards per carry in the process. Want to stress that this situation changes if Jaylen Coleman is available. Duke utilized 3-4 running backs almost equally last season, and Coleman’s potential availability, plus Leonard garnering carries himself, would make the carry distribution extremely congested.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Moore ($5,100) 16-point projection at this pricing makes Moore a strong play, regardless of if you pair with Riley Leonard or not. After a dud in Week 1, Moore had a big-time bounce back performance against Lafayette with 84 yards on four targets with a touchdown. Week 1 in a competitive matchup still suggested that Jalon Calhoun ($5,400) remains Leonard’s top target, but the difference between the two is minimal. Moore is nearly doubling Calhoun’s YPC and aDOT so far.
Injury Notes – RB Jaylen Coleman ($3,500) Have not found an update this week as to if Coleman will play Saturday after missing the first two games. His availability is important as the Duke backfield would become a committee between three rushers, along with Leonard.
San Diego State vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: OSU -24.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: OSU 36.5 – SDSU 12
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
San Diego State:
QB Jalen Mayden ($6,500) is the only San Diego State player we have projected to score more than nine fantasy points. According to Pro Football Focus, Mayden’s passing grade of 50.0 ranks 243rd among quarterbacks. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a quarterback competition begin to brew at some point if Mayden continues to perform like this. We’re safe to bypass any San Diego State players for this slate.
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Damien Martinez ($6,400) Too cheap for a bell-cow running back. Three running backs have already hit double-digit fantasy points against the Aztecs this season, and SDSU is 126th in rush D success rate after two weeks. Martinez should feast and has one of the highest floors on the slate. The only way Martinez doesn’t hit value are injury (please no) or DJU vuluring TDs from him. Would NOT play both Martinez and DJU in a lineup together.
Fade – WR Anthony Gould ($6,400) Oregon State won’t need to throw a ton to beat up on San Diego State and their inept offense. I also have a rule about playing guys after sitting out the previous week. Gould re-appeared on the depth chart this week and is expected to start. The question is how much he plays. Not worth it at that pricing.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Velling ($4,000) Tied for second most routes run on the team with WR1 Silas Bolden. SDSU is allowing 10.7 FPPG to opposing tight ends through two games which is 38th most in the country.
Pivot Play – WR Silas Bolden ($6,000) I would say Bolden is the clear WR1 for the Beavs at this point with a team-high 10 receptions on 12 targets. A sprinkling of ownership in mutli-lineup GPPs is probably the smart choice, but not overweight with how frequently Oregon State runs the football.
Best of the Rest – DJ Uiagalelei ($9,000) Want to reiterate a point I made above that I would not roster both DJU and Martinez in the same lineup despite the projections as there is a very real possibility one could cannibalize the other and vulture the rushing TDs. Dante Moore, in his first start, torched this SDSU secondary for 290 yards and three scores, so would expect DJU to find success here through the air.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -27.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: UGA 41 – SC 13.5
Weather: 77 degrees / 7% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – TE Brock Bowers ($4,700) While I appreciate Draftkings getting salaries up early so we can begin our writeups for the week, maybe double check the prices first? At least DK did make the right move here in moving up Bowers to 4.7k after being listed at min pricing, a clear and obvious mistake. Some would argue Bowers is still too cheap at this salary, but numbers show that his usage rates are down in 2023 – some notion out there that Bowers isn’t completely 100% healthy right now. While UGA truly doesn’t need to ramp things up until the month of November, the beginning of SEC play should signal Bowers playing more snaps than he’s had against the likes of Ball State and Tennessee-Martin.
Fade – RB Kendall Milton ($6,500) Add Daijun Edwards back into the mix potentially, and there could be as many as five different running backs carrying the football on Saturday for UGA. And unlike year’s past, the stats don’t support rostering anyone despite the full-fledged RBBC. Georgia enters Saturday ranked 8th in the SEC in yards per game on the ground, averaging just 4.45 YPC despite facing two cupcakes to begin the year. 81st in rush play success rate after facing Ball State and UTM is not inspiring.
Bargain Bin – WR Arian Smith ($4,200) Smith played in just one game this season and already leads all UGA receivers in routes run. Per PFF, Dillon Bell was the starter, but gave way to Smith in the game vs. Ball State. Knowing Georgia and how that offense operates, it’s probably a true rotation between the two.
Pivot Play – Zero UGA players. If this is your first time subbing, here’s an FYI about me. I rarely watch Georgia games on any of my screens. That statement is exacerbated when Georgia plays UT-Martin and Ball State. Between injuries, constant rotations at the skill positions and high ownership for Brock Bowers with his low salary, I don’t feel the need to roster anyone on the slate. 40 points could easily be scored and not a single player will be in the winning lineup. You know the drill with this team.
Best of the Rest – QB Carson Beck ($8,400) We listed Bowers as the top play because of pricing, but debated it with Beck because he truly is the one player on the entire Georgia offense we know will have his hands on the football on the majority of plays. Beck’s been adequate in taking over as the QB1 for the national title favorites, completing over 70% of his passes with three touchdowns. On paper, the matchup looks favorable as SC is 105th in pass D success rate but did limit Drake Maye to just 19.5 fantasy points in the opener.
Injury Notes – Where do I begin? UGA has a laundry list of injuries with the biggest names have been Ladd McConkey and Daijun Edwards, neither of whom have played a down the season. Sounds as though McConkey is still weeks away from playing, while the insinuation as that Edwards will be making his debut on Saturday.
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Legette ($5,200) Even after 300 receiving yards in two games, I’m still somewhat skeptical Legette can continue this pace through the rigorous SEC schedule. Not to mention once Antwane Wells is 100 percent healthy, how does the dynamic change? But you cannot deny the results thus far for the 5th-year senior. FWIW – I do think his projection is a tad high this week based on his performances the first two weeks. Prop lines came out in the 40s for Legette so Vegas doesn’t believe he’ll continue this torrid pace against the Dawgs.
Fade – RB Dakereon Joyner ($5,300) In keeping with comparing players to their sportsbook prop lines, they listed Joyner at 33.5 yards at open. If Joyner struggled against North Carolina and Furman, I don’t see a path to succeeding this week.
Bargain Bin – TE Trey Knox ($3,400) Quiet start to the year for Knox who was initially thought to have a bigger part of the offense given his Arkansas connection with OC Dowell Loggains. Hasn’t transpired with just three receptions, but Knox is second on the team in routes run behind Legette.
Pivot Play – WR Antwane Wells ($5,200) Shane Beamer says there are zero concerns about Juice Wells not being 100% this week. Take him for his word? The staff increased Wells’ reps from Week 1 to 2 in preparation for this game, though Wells was targeted just twice in the Furman blowout. We’ve been surprised before by the South Carolina offense, but don’t foresee this game shooting out. So when choosing between Legette or Wells, if you do, just select one and avoid the stack.
Best of the Rest – WR Eddie Lewis ($4,300) Breakout performance for the Memphis transfer with six receptions on seven targets. Should see a significant boost in playing time should Ahmarean Brown not play.
Injury Notes – WR Ahmarean Brown ($4,900) Brown was designated as questionable on Thursday. I’d remove him entirely from the player pool.
Alabama vs. South Florida
Point-Spread: Bama -33
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Bama 48 – USF 14.5
Weather: 90 degrees / 73% rain / 6 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($9,100) Let’s play a game of message board fact or fiction. Murmurs out there that Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner is getting some first-team reps with Milroe after last week’s disappointing loss at home to Texas. Nick Saban’s comments this week to the media and on radio sure do leave some breadcrumbs that we could possibly see two quarterbacks on Saturday. If that doesn’t come to fruition and Milroe gets the start, he could also be the smash play against a USF defense that allowed 374 passing yards to Florida A&M last week. Risk vs. Reward.
Fade – WR JaCorey Brooks ($5,800) Transfer incoming in 5,4,3,2… Brooks was fifth in routes run last week vs. Texas and appears to have fallen behind JUCO transfer Malik Benson in the pecking order. Just three targets to start the season with zero receptions.
Bargain Bin – TE Amari NiBlack ($4,000) Admittedly did bet the under on his 50.5-yard prop bet, but it’s been an impressive start to the season for the redshirt freshman with four receptions and a pair of touchdowns. Safe to say he’s already surpassed Maryland transfer CJ Dippre on the depth chart, playing nearly double the number of offensive snaps through two games.
Pivot Play – RB Justice Haynes ($4,500) When do we see the 5-star freshman? Haynes didn’t see a single snap against Texas, for reasons unbeknownst to me and probably most Bama fans too. With the top three RBs on the depth chart all averaging under four yards a carry to begin the year and the Tide being a 30-point favorite, Saturday feels like a perfect opportunity. Haven’t seen any hints to an extended workload for Haynes this week, but his takeover is happening at some point.
Best of the Rest – RB Jase McClellan ($6,300) While we want to see the ballyhooed freshman get extended run, McClellan still leads this backfield, seeing double-digit carries in each of the first two games. Pick your poison at receiver with Kobe Prentice ($5,200) leading the team in targets (10) despite playing almost half the snaps that the starters have. Alabama feels like Georgia this season in that the RB and WR position will see heavy rotation. No need to roster anyone, particularly if Milroe is at quarterback vulturing carries and his inability to consistently throw the football.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Florida:
I’m hopeful we get South Florida again on another Main Slate this season with a promising young quarterback in QB Byrum Brown ($6,400) who looks to be a near-perfect fit in the veer-n-shoot system under HC Alex Golesh. This ain’t the week against Nick Saban coming after a loss. Also out on the running backs, which is a RBBC, against the Tide front seven. At receiver, we do appear to have an established top three in Khafre Brown ($4,700), Sean Atkins ($5,100) and Naiem Simmons ($4,200). That trio combines for exactly 50% of the target share. File those names away for later in the year when we can realistically use them.
Western Kentucky vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -29.5
O/U Total: 66
Implied Score: OSU 47.5 – WKU 18
Weather: 80 degrees / 11% rain / 6 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Corley ($4,700) Brock Bowers and his salary got all the attention early in the week, but this is the pricing that we should be irritated with. How do you list what could be the nation’s leader in reception by season’s end at $4.7k? Corley is a MUCH better play than Brock Bowers, imo. Save your argument about implied team totals. After being stretchered off in Week 1 with a chest injury, Corley was in uniform last week against Houston Baptist, but the staff chose to hold him out in a blowout. Corley should be full go on Saturday.
Fade – RBs. Western Kentucky throws the ball 68.5% of the time – 5th most in the country – and rotates their running backs. Self-explanatory.
Bargain Bin – WR Blue Smith ($3,800) Revenge game story line? Smith is a former Ohio State transfer who now starts outside opposite Dalvin Smith. Second on the team in routes run and third in targets. WR3s can hold value in this offense given the frequency at which WKU throws the football, though Blue might end up as WR2 given the off-chance Smith doesn’t play.
Pivot Play – QB Austin Reed ($5,500) Team total of just 18 points means we’re more than likely to not have Reed in our lineups, but how tempting is it at $5.5k to have what might be the nation’s leader in passing yards by year’s end? Not like Ohio State’s defense has been “that” good under DC Jim Knowles, ranking 79th currently in pass D success rate. We know the volume is going to be there, and Reed should have his top two targets in the lineup.
Best of the Rest – WR Easton Messer ($4,800) WKU has actually been down their top two receivers in the slot to begin the year with Corley missing time and Michael Mathison who suffered an injury during fall camp. The starters at receiver for the Tops are very good – it’s the depth that is questionable, and I remember the opening week broadcast mentioning WKU is trying anyone and everyone on the roster to find that depth. Enter Easton Messer who posted 8-109-1 on a team high nine targets in the win last week. Corley and Smith returning will obviously push Messer down the pecking order, but maybe WKU has found something in the 5-foot-9 slot-man. I hate doing this, but I’m going to. He does look like a future New England Patriots slot receiver if you catch my drift. Wasn’t overly impressed physically so might’ve been the situation/opponent.
Injury Notes – WR Dalvin Smith ($4,100) Thanks to a poster in the CFFSite Discord, it appears that Dalvin Smith should be ok this week’s game after leaving the Houston Baptist contest in the first quarter. Apparently, Smith was trying to come back into the game at some point, but Tyson Helton held him out with the score in hand. Don’t have confirmation that Smith is a go, but that note about him trying to re-enter last week’s game is promising for his outlook this week.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($9,100) Connection was strong last week between the two high school teammates, with 160 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets. Now MHJr will have a full game with McCord as Ryan Day announced the sophomore quarterback as the full-time starter moving forward. Should only help this pairing.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($6,800) Fleming has now become my new Theo Wease. The high-priced receiver that rarely, if ever, reaches the value of his salary in DFS. Fleming has been on the field just as much as Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka the first two weeks is truly the only argument in favor of the former 5-star.
Bargain Bin – TE Cade Stover ($3,800) Goose egg from Stover last Saturday, but the senior tight end had 98 yards receiving on seven targets in the only competitive game Ohio State has played this season. Figure he’ll be a bigger part of the game plan this weekend.
Pivot Play – RB Miyan Williams ($7,000) Small sample size in 2023, but the red-zone/goal line opportunities are very similar to 2022 for the Ohio State backfield. Williams has double the red-zone carries of TreVeyon Henderson ($7,600) so we know who the preferred option in goal-to-go situations is. Our projection loves Henderson, though, this week and Western Kentucky should pose no threat when defending the run. 122nd in rush D success rate through two weeks. I do think a lot of folks will be focused on the McCord storyline and getting the passing game going. Could be an opportunity to invest in lower owned OSU running backs.
Best of the Rest – QB Kyle McCord ($9,400) Should be pretty low-owned I would think at this pricing and so many other good options at QB on the slate. WKU is marginally better vs. the pass but allowed 35 fantasy points to USF quarterback Byrum Brown in Week 1, and allowed 213 yards and two scores last week to Houston Baptist QB Colby Suits. I think WKU can put some pressure on Ohio State to force the starters to play all four quarters, which is what we like.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulane vs. Southern Miss
Point-Spread: Tul -13
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Tul 31 – USM 18
Weather: 88 degrees / 22% rain / 6 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – WR Jha’quan Jackson ($6,300) Jackson had another stellar performance last week even without his starting quarterback, with 4-83-1 on nine targets. As we’ve noted previously in our DFS writeups, Tulane isn’t rotating their receivers as they have in the past with Jackson, Lawrence Keys and Chris Brazzell getting the majority of playing time at the position. Increases their value immensely.
Fade – RB Shaadie Clayton ($5,000) See below.
Bargain Bin – RB Makhi Hughes ($4,600) The debate in the preseason was who the RB1 would be between Shaadie Clayton or Iverson Celestine. The answer is neither. Looks like Tulane has handed over the keys to the backfield to a 205-pound true freshman in Makhi Hughes after rushing for 87 yards and a touchdown on 22 attempts vs. Ole Miss. Should Pratt not play, this looks to be a game Tulane should lean on the run game, facing a Southern Miss defense that is 7th in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing running backs.
Pivot Play – WR Lawrence Keys ($6,000) Same reasoning here as Jackson above. The trio of Jackson, Keys and Chris Brazzell combined for 67% of the targets last week against Ole Miss. Maybe this changes through the course of the season as transfers like Yulkeith Brown (Texas A&M) and Dontae Fleming (Louisiana) grow more comfortable within Tulane’s offense, but that isn’t happening right now.
Best of the Rest – TE Alex Bauman ($3,500) Tulane starting tight ends have caught 12 touchdowns combined over the last three years. Bauman is the clear-cut starter, and had six targets last week vs. Ole Miss.
Injury Notes – QB Michael Pratt ($8,800) We currently have Pratt in the projections as of now but is designated as a game-time decision. Just reading some of the Tulane boards, and the notion seems to be pointing in the direction of Kai Horton starting again. The opening line has actually grown from 11.5 at the start of the week to 13 now, so maybe Pratt does start? We’ll find out from a Pete Thamel tweet early on Saturday morning hopefully.
Southern Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Frank Gore Jr. ($5,000) When asked about the questionable usage of Frank Gore Jr. through two weeks, head coach Will Hall said there is nothing to worry about with his star running back, and the lack of touches in the second half during the blowout vs. Florida State was simply about trying to keep his RB1 fresh. A 16.8-projection at just $5k makes FG3 a definite possibility. So far, Tulane has kept opposing RB1s in check, limiting Top 15 fantasy options Quinshon Judkins and La’Damien Webb to just 21 combined fantasy points.
Fade – QB Billy Wiles ($5,300) To his credit, Wiles has been an upgrade at the quarterback position. I’m specifically referencing the opener where the former Clemson transfer threw for 267 yards and three scores against Alcorn State. We don’t need to speak of last week’s results. Just too many other good QB options on the slate to even risk starting a Southern Miss quarterback.
Bargain Bin – WR Tiaquelin Mims ($4,200) Southern Miss seems to be sorting out still who the WR3 will be in this offense. The top two are established with Mims leading the team in targets (11) through two games. Speed for days with this sophomore slot receiver.
Pivot Play – WR Jakarius Caston ($4,800) Caston is just behind Mims in targets (10) and the team leader in receiving yards (127) and routes run. This is not a high-volume passing offense, but USM is challenging defenses down the field with Caston as he’s averaging 18.1 YPC and an aDOT of 12.1. Wouldn’t start two USM receivers but I’d be tempted to sprinkle in either Mims or Caston as the team’s top playmakers at wideout.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Would not consider anyone outside of Gore Jr., Caston or Mims. Tight ends aren’t featured in this passing offense and the WR3 spot has been a mixed bag of results.
Injury Notes – n/a
