Memphis vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -6.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: FSU 29.5 – Mem 23
Weather: 82 degrees / 25% rain / 3 mph winds
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – RB Mario Anderson ($6,200) The dynamic of the Memphis backfield changed drastically when Sutton Smith was lost for the season due to injury. While this has typically been a one-man band in the backfield as we saw a year ago with Blake Watson, it was looking as though Anderson / Sutton were going to split reps early on. This is now Anderson’s backfield with 50% of the volume share. At least until Memphis gets within the two-yard line and then RB Brandon Thomas ($4,300) vultures away a touchdown. FSU has been horrendous defensively to start the year against both the run and pass.
Fade – RB Brandon Thomas ($4,300) Thomas is Memphis’ goal-line option only. While he’s very good at this particular skillset – nine rushing TDs in 2023 – this is not something you can bank on in DFS. His three rushing attempts this season have all come inside the red zone.
Bargain Bin – WR Koby Drake ($3,800) Four targets in each of the first two games for Drake who functions as Memphis’ WR3 on the outside. Productive player that did have 50+ targets a year ago and is third on the team in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR DeMeer Blankumsee ($6,200) Roc Taylor gets the headlines, and rightfully so, but Blankumsee is no slouch, catching seven touchdown passes on 83 targets in 2023. Slow start to 2024, but Memphis hasn’t really been in any competitive matchups yet. The former Toledo transfer leads all Tigers’ wideouts in routes run this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Seth Henigan ($8,000) The senior QB has been efficient to start 2024, completing 70% of his throws with three touchdowns. FSU has not been good at anything defensively, ranking 121st in pass D success rate and 122nd in EPA per pass play. If playing Henigan, I’m stacking with one of Blankumsee or WR Roc Taylor ($6,500) as they’re his clear top two options.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Ja’khi Douglas ($4,500) The veteran slot receiver has been the most consistent FSU wideout thus far, leading the team with eight receptions on 13 targets. The hope is that a quarterback change at some point can unlock some untapped fantasy potential with some of these FSU pass-catchers.
Fade – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($7,500) We were already looking at fading DJU heading into Saturday because of his previous performances. And while we may be looking into this a little too deeply, the video coming out of Wednesday’s practices caught our eye. QBs were rotating in practice, but it seemed as though Brock Glenn was first in line throwing warmup passes. Maybe something, maybe nothing. But we wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibility that DJU gets replaced at some point.
Bargain Bin – WR Hykeem Williams ($3,500) I mean, why not? Outside of Ja’Khi Douglas, there isn’t a true difference maker among the Florida State receivers. Williams, a 5-star coming out of high school, has yet to make an impact in his career, but is expected to make his season debut Saturday. Williams made a couple of splash plays in Wednesday’s practice reportedly.
Pivot Play – RB Kam Davis ($3,000) Jaylin Lucas is out for the season due to injury and Roydell Williams looks like the same fourth string running back that we saw at Alabama. With depth lacking, and the Seminoles in a hole at 0-2, don’t be shocked to see some freshmen like Davis get some extended work here.
Best of the Rest – TE Kyle Morlock ($3,400) The senior tight end had a horrendous Week 1 with more drops (2) than receptions (0) but was targeted six times against Boston College. Morlock has had a bounce back week in practice from all accounts. RB Roydell Williams ($5,800) and RB Lawrance Toafili ($5,500) likely still get the bulk of the carries this week – even though we like Davis to get some extended run – after combining for a pair of touchdowns vs. BC. Memphis is only allowing 5.5 fantasy points to running backs through the first two games. WRs Malik Benson ($5,100) and Jalen Brown ($4,700) are second and third, respectively, in routes run for the Seminoles.
Injury Notes – RB Jaylin Lucas ($5,200) Out for the season.
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa
Point-Spread: Ok St -19.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Ok St 41.5 – Tulsa 21
Weather: 78 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – WR Brennan Presley ($7,100) The price tag on Ollie Gordon is tough to justify this week, hence Presley being listed as our top Oklahoma State player coming off a 19-target performance last Saturday against Arkansas. Tulsa has given up the 13th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in the country through two games.
Fade – Backups. I’m going to sound like a broken record every time that Oklahoma State is on a DFS slate. Just 16 targets combined have gone to players not named Presley, Stribling, Owens and Gordon. And Gordon is dominating the backfield market share again this season at nearly 70% thus far.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone below $5.2k.
Pivot Play – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($5,200) or WR Rashod Owens ($5,500) Presley is going to see high ownership after last week’s performance. But you’re fine rostering any one of the top three Oklahoma State receivers, and potentially stacking two in the same lineup. The trio is dominating the team target share again this season at 72%. Nobody else catches passes.
Best of the Rest – QB Alan Bowman ($8,300) Tulsa’s offense should be good ‘enough’ to keep this game competitive for a bit. If there’s been a weakness on the Golden Hurricanes’ defense thus far, it’s been the secondary, ranked 126th in EPA per pass play and 89th in pass D success rate. RB Ollie Gordon II ($10,000) is never not in play as a potential option and does have the highest projection of any RB on the slate. Just a matter of being able to fit that price tag and have a competitive lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – WR Kamdyn Benjamin ($5,700) Benjamin is one of the best wide receivers among G5 teams in the country. The senior wideout closed last year on a tear with four touchdowns in his final three games, and already off to a strong start in 2024, finding the end-zone in both weeks. Oklahoma State has also struggled to limit opposing wideouts, allowing the 17th most fantasy points in the country to that position.
Fade – RB Bill Jackson ($4,100) Jackson was thought to be either the 1B or RB2 option coming into the year behind Anthony Watkins. He’s seemingly fallen to third on the depth chart behind talented true freshman Lloyd Avant. Don’t see Tulsa attempting to run a ton this week anyways.
Bargain Bin – WR Zion Steptoe ($4,200) Seems like Tulsa is still sorting out their WR rotation beyond Benjamin, so rostering anyone feels like a risk probably not worth taking. But Steptoe, a former 4-star recruit and Purdue transfer, looks to be the WR2 as he’s second in routes run with 11 targets.
Pivot Play – QB Kirk Francis ($6,000) Francis is a GPP play only and a longshot one at that with a 12-point projection. But this Tulsa passing game has performed well through two games and facing a leaky Oklahoma State secondary that is 89th in pass D success rate. As a non-runner, Francis is best suited in GPP game stack lineups only.
Best of the Rest – WR Anthony Watkins ($5,400) Watkins does have the only two rushing touchdowns this season among Tulsa running backs, but this backfield is split more than we thought coming into the year because of the emergence of freshman RB Lloyd Avant ($4,500). A near 3-touchdown underdog with a split backfield is not really on our radar.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Ala -15.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Ala 32.5 – Wis 17
Weather: 75 degrees / 19% rain / 6 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($10,000) We’ll start by saying we don’t think any Alabama player is necessary to be in your DFS lineup as they’re all priced a bit too high relative to their projection. This is unlikely to be a high-volume passing game for Bama as a double-digit favorite and the backfield split between Jam Miler and Justice Haynes could go any which way depending on who has the hot hand.
Fade – WR Kobe Prentice ($6,100) Makes zero sense at this price point. Prentice is a backup WR that ran a route on 42% of just 24 snaps played last week against South Florida as Bama deployed a lot of two tight end sets.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not rostering an Alabama player below $5.6k.
Pivot Play – WR Germie Bernard ($5,900) We saw the usage last week from Bernard that we should expect from him each game from here on out in my opinion, Bernard was on the field for 90% of the offensive snaps, leading the way with seven targets. As we mentioned at the top, the Tide ran a ton of two-tight end sets vs. USF, meaning there were just two wideouts on the field primarily. That was Bernard and prized freshman WR Ryan Williams ($5,600) who was targeted six times. That duo accounted for over 50% of the target share.
Best of the Rest – RB Jam Miller ($7,000) and RB Justice Haynes ($7,300) This situation feels very similar to a Penn State for example. Guess work as to who the top option of the week is. Against USF, it was Miller who rushed for 140 yards on 15 attempts with over 60 yards after contact. Wisconsin’s run defense has been below average to start the year, ranking 100th in EPA per rush play defensively.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Pauling ($5,100) Assuming Wisconsin is in a heavy pass game script, Pauling is the team’s top option in the slot with 18 targets in two games. Heavily preferred on DraftKings vs. FanDuel with the PPR scoring settings with Pauling averaging just 10 yards per catch.
Fade – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($7,900) We thought we were going to see a QB upgrade this season with TVD starting over Tanner Mordecai but looking like much of the same as Van Dyke has scored just 30 fantasy points combined in two games against inferior competition. Alabama is ranked No. 3 in EPA per pass play defensively through two weeks.
Bargain Bin – WR Trech Kekahuna ($3,100) Wide receivers not named Will Pauling realistically don’t interest us much. But we do think Wisconsin will be in four-wide sets a bit more this week with the potential game script as a double-digit dawg. Kekahuna benefits in that scenario and would be in the starting lineup if he didn’t play the same slot position as Pauling. Kekahuna caught a touchdown with over 60 yards against the last SEC defense he faced in LSU.
Pivot Play – RB Chez Mellusi ($7,200) I wish Mellusi was priced at like $5,200 where he should be, because then he’d be more of a viable option with his counterpart Tawee Walker being a game-time decision. The Tide showed last week they’re not impenetrable against the run, allowing over 200 yards on the ground to USF. 20 touches would be in store for Mellusi if Walker is unavailable.
Best of the Rest – WR Bryson Green ($4,500) Green is second on the team with 10 targets and also second in routes run. WR C.J. Williams ($3,500) was targeted four times las week against South Dakota State, running a route on 52% of his snaps played. He’s been more effective so far than starter Vinny Anthony II.
Injury Notes – RB Tawee Walker ($5,500) Described as TBD headed into this week with an undisclosed injury.
LSU vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: LSU -7
O/U Total: 49
Implied Score: LSU 33 – SC 26
Weather: 77 degrees / 62% rain / 9 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($9,100) The projection and pricing don’t make Nussmeier the top play for LSU. What does? The Tigers are dead last in the SEC in rushing, averaging just 3.85 yards per carry with zero rushing touchdowns. With the LSU WR room also performing well, we’ll lean on the passing components over the Tigers’ backfield.
Fade – RBs. I don’t think either Josh Williams are Kaleb Jackson are completely out of the equation given their relatively cheap pricing, but LSU’s struggles to run the football don’t make either option all that appealing. South Carolina hasn’t been great at defending the run against a pair of mediocre offenses in Kentucky and Old Dominion, ranking 108th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Aaron Anderson ($4,100) As long as Chris Hilton is out, the former Alabama transfer will start in the slot. Anderson doesn’t see as much playing time as Kyren Lacy or CJ Daniels, but is third on the team in targets, receptions and fourth in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Zavion Thomas ($4,500) Thomas was spotlighted in an LSU article on 247Sports as someone to watch this week after hauling in five passes and a touchdown last week. After being limited in Week 1, Thomas’ playing time nearly doubled against Nicholls last week and will be a factor as both a receiver and in the return game.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyren Lacy ($8,400) The debate is over, right? As to who would be the LSU WR1? Seems like it through two games as Lacy has been targeted 18 times, finishing last week with three receiving touchdowns against Nicholls. WR CJ Daniels ($6,300) is the pivot play off of Lacy. While the Liberty transfer has yet to make a huge impact on the stat sheet, Daniels has actually played more this season with over 90% of the offensive snaps against both USC and Nicholls. TE Mason Taylor ($4,700) will be an option every single week at this price point, now second on the team with 14 targets.
Injury Notes – WR Chris Hilton ($6,000) Hilton remains day-to-day and questionable this week with an ankle injury. Unplayable at this price even if Hilton was active on gameday.
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Rocket Sanders ($4,900) South Carolina’s beat writer mentioned he had a source tell him that the staff expects Rocket Sanders to have a good performance against LSU this week. The senior back is dominating the RB market share with no other South Carolina running back having more than five carries this season. LSU also just allowed a 100-yard rushing performance to whoever the Nicholls RB1 is.
Fade – WR Gage Larvadain ($5,100) Each year there’s usually one or two players that are frequent appearances in our ‘fade’ sections. Larvadain is a popular choice early on given his pricing as a non-starter. The Miami (Ohio) transfer has only played 13% of the team’s offensive snaps this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Smith ($3,000) Limit one max South Carolina pass-catcher in your DFS lineups – and preferably zero pass-catchers given LaNorris Sellers has yet to prove much at all as a passer thus far. Smith, a 6-foot-6 true freshman, has surpassed Ball State transfer Brady Hunt on the depth chart as he’s been targeted three times in each of the first two weeks.
Pivot Play – QB LaNorris Sellers ($6,200) What’s the usage going to be for Sellers this week after leaving last week’s contest with a hip injury? Possible we see 20+ carries like we did in Week 1 vs. ODU? LSU secondary has been improved, but not by much. Allowed 23 fantasy points to Miller Moss in Week 1 and are 131st in pass D success rate through two weeks.
Best of the Rest – WR Jared Brown ($5,500) and WR Vandrevius Jacobs ($4,700) South Carolina doesn’t throw much, but when they have, it’s usually been in the direction of Brown who has a team-high eight targets. Jacobs, the Florida State transfer, was shut out last weekend on four targets, but was second among SC receivers against Kentucky with over 51% of snaps played.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: Mizzou -16.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Mizzou 35 – BC 18.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 22% rain / 6 mph winds
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – QB Thomas Castellanos ($7,800) Can’t glean anything really from last week’s 56-0 beatdown over Duquesne. But even with a new staff under Bill O’Brien, we saw the same type of performance from Castellanos in Week 1 like we did in 2023 with three combined touchdowns and over 60 yards on the ground vs. Florida State. The thought was that O’Brien might try to turn Castellanos into a pocket passer, but the QB1 had 10 designed rushing attempts (16 overall) against the Seminoles.
Fade – WR Jerand Bradley ($4,700) We’re mostly fading all pass-catchers for Boston College given they’re No. 7 nationally in rush rate. Bradley is a definite fade as he’s been targeted just once in two games, is not a starter, and played just 21% of the offensive snaps against Florida State.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody below $4.4k worth considering.
Pivot Play – RB Kye Robichaux ($5,700) or RB Treshaun Ward ($5,200) Don’t stack both in a lineup as this is a solid Missouri defense and both running backs must contend with Castellanos also for carries. Not often do we consider running backs for a team that is a double-digit dawg, but BC is seventh nationally in designed run rate through two games. The game plan for the Eagles will remain the same so long as the game is within reach. Ward does hold a significant edge in the passing game with five targets compared to Robichaux’s one target.
Best of the Rest – WR Lewis Bond ($4,800) BC doesn’t throw much, but when they do, it’s been in the direction of Bond who has a team-high nine targets. No other receiver has more than three targets on the season. WR Jaedn Skeete ($4,200) has just one target but is second in routes run.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Nate Noel ($5,600) Noel should not be cheaper than RB Marcus Carroll ($6,000) as the team’s starting running back. Over five yards per carry with two rushing scores through the first two games in what’s been a dominant start to the season for this Missouri offense…albeit against two terrible opponents. The Tigers are No. 1 in the country in rush success rate. Noel’s pricing and Luther Burden’s iffy status gives him top billing this week for Missouri.
Fade – WR Mookie Cooper ($4,400) The last time Mookie Cooper scored double-digit fantasy points in a game was Week 8 of last year. And he’s never scored more than 20 fantasy points in a game during his collegiate career. In fairness of Cooper, he does lead all Mizzou receivers in total routes run so far.
Bargain Bin – WR Marquis Johnson ($3,800) Mizzou loves their underclassmen wide receivers in Johnson and Joshua Manning who have played extensively in the first two games due to the blowout nature of both contests. We’ll see the true Missouri rotation this week but might see more rotation or a fourth WR on the field with tight end Brett Norfleet potentially out. Johnson has 12 targets in the first two games alone. Not bad for a ”backup.”
Pivot Play – WR Luther Burden ($9,000) Burden missed the second half of last week due to illness and is described as probable by HC Eli Drinkwitz. We take that to mean Burden will be a go unless told otherwise. Burden’s return to the lineup downgrades WR Theo Wease ($6,200) who had a breakout performance vs. Buffalo with 13 receptions on 14 targets. He’ll be back to his normal 4-5 catches per week rate with Burden returning. Because Missouri is so balanced offensively, we do not advise playing Wease and Burden together.
Best of the Rest – QB Brady Cook ($8,500) Boston College has been exceptional defending the pass in the first two games, ranking 19th in pass D success rate and 18th in EPA per pass play. That’s also inflated data when facing Duquesne and DJU. Cook has been precise with his throws to start the year, completing over 71% of his passes and will have the full arsenal of wideouts at his disposal on Saturday.
Injury Notes – TE Brett Norfleet ($3,500) The TE1 is considered questionable but did practice on Tuesday.
Tulane vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -13.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: OU 30 – Tul 16.5
Weather: 90 degrees / 3% rain / 10 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – TE Alex Bauman ($3,400) This could be a struggle for Tulane to move the football on the road against a defense that has allowed just 15 points in the first two games. We’ll go cheap with Bauman as the top play as the junior tight end is second in targets (8) and has three of the team’s four receiving touchdowns.
Fade – RB Shaadie Clayton-Johnson ($4,000) We we’re going to play a backup Tulane running back as it was, but just interesting to see Clayton-Johnson priced ahead of Arnold Barnes considering that’s not how they’re ranked on the Tulane depth chart. Barnes is the RB2.
Bargain Bin – WR Dontae Fleming ($4,300) Fleming had a monster performance vs. Kansas State with 4-97-0 on four targets. The former Louisiana transfer leads all Tulane wideouts in routes run. If choosing a Tulane WR not named Mario Williams, Fleming gets the nod over WR Yulkeith Brown ($4,600).
Pivot Play – WR Mario Williams ($6,000) Revenge game storyline with Williams facing his former school. Williams is having a bounce back season with consecutive 100-yard performances and 29% of the team’s target share.
Best of the Rest – RB Makhi Hughes ($6,000) Went under on Hughes’ rushing prop last week against a good KSU defense and the sophomore still rumbled for 128 and a touchdown on 21 attempts. Hughes also displayed some flashes in the passing game that he didn’t last year with five receptions. He won’t be in many of my lineups as the matchup is a bit more challenging this week, on the road, against an OU defense that is 14th in EPA per rush play defensively and 25th in rush D success rate – both numbers far better than Kanas State. But the volume should still be there as long as this remains competitive. QB Darian Mensah ($6,100) Against a Big 12 defense in the rain last week, the redshirt freshman QB passed his first big test with 22 fantasy points and is not completing 70% of his passes for the season. Different scenario this week on the road against a top 20 defense.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Deion Burks ($8,000) Until Nic Anderson is back in the lineup, Burks is likely to continue being fed the football. 19 targets in the first two games, including 12 last week vs. Houston.
Fade – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($6,700) Imagine using your first-round CFF draft selection in the biggest fantasy draft of your offseason on a running back that ran for a single yard last week against Houston. Couldn’t be me (it was). The five-straight 100-yard performances to close the 2023 season are a distant memory at this point. It’s a collective failure, between the running backs, poor offensive line play, and the lack of field-stretchers at receiver. Sawchuk is unplayable at this point until he shows signs of life.
Bargain Bin – WR Zion Ragins ($3,000) If Nic Anderson plays, Ragins should be removed from the player pool. Ragins got the start over an ineffective JJ Hester last weekend, playing 64% of the team’s snaps and was targeted five times.
Pivot Play – WR Brenan Thompson ($4,000) Thompson hasn’t been overly productive since entering the starting lineup due to injury but is the clear WR2 behind Burks if the current OU receivers remain out. Six targets in each of the first two games, playing 92% of the offensive snaps last week.
Best of the Rest – QB Jackson Arnold ($9,700) Arnold hasn’t necessarily played poorly, but this offense has been playing with one hand tied behind its back because of all the injuries up front and at WR. Tulane’s pass defense has been below average so far, ranking 91st in success rate and 75th in EPA per pass play. RB Jovantae Barnes ($5,100) seems to be the preferred choice in the backfield over Sawchuk, and this Tulane defense allowed a 100-yard rusher last week in DJ Giddens. TE Bauer Sharp ($4,200) was limited to just one catch vs. Houston after a big Week 1 performance.
Injury Notes – WR Nic Anderson ($5,200) We still have Anderson with a zero as he’s yet to play a snap this season but sounds like he’s very close to returning. The Sooners badly need his return to the field with mounting injuries at receiver.
Nevada vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -17.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: Minn 30.5 – Nev 13
Weather: 76 degrees / 18% rain / 7 mph winds
Nevada:
Top Play(s) – WR Cortez Braham Jr. ($4,400) This is the third time already this season we’ve had Nevada on a big slate so we should know what to expect. The West Virginia transfer is coming off his best game of the year with 9-110-1 on 10 targets. Braham is now averaging 7.1 targets per game.
Fade – RB Sean Dollars ($5,100) Last season’s leading rusher is simply not part of the backfield equation anymore. Dollars played just two snaps against Georgia Southern last Saturday, giving way to Pat Garwo and Savion Red.
Bargain Bin – TE Jace Henry ($3,800) Volume is low with just six targets in three games, but Henry has caught a touchdown in two of three weeks. Henry also rarely comes off the field, playing 80% of the team’s offensive snap, though he only runs a route 28% of the time.
Pivot Play – WR Jaden Smith ($4,200) Braham gets the headlines, but he and Smith dominate the team’s target share at nearly 60%. Last week against Georgia Southern, Smith’s aDOT was 19.4 yards on nine targets. He’s the team’s top deep threat.
Best of the Rest – QB Brendon Lewis ($6,500) Both passing attacks that Minnesota has faced this season were abysmal, so the numbers are a bit skewed, but the Gophers currently rank 14th in pass D success rate. This will be a homecoming for Lewis playing in front of family, and he’s a runner with 18 attempts in two of the three games played. WR Marcus Bellon ($4,000) functions as the WR3 with 11 targets in three games, running a route on just 40% of his snaps. Split backfield between RB Savion Red ($4,800) and Pat Garwo ($4,100), though the former has been far more effective, averaging over 7.5 yards per carry. Red also holds a 4-3 lead over Garwo in red-zone carries this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – RB Darius Taylor ($6,200) Would imagine that the coaches will increase Taylor’s reps with each passing week as he remains healthy. The Nevada run defense has been much improved under the new coaching staff, ranking 62nd in rush D success rate but will likely be overmatched against a bigger / stronger Minnesota front.
Fade – RB Sieh Bangura ($4,000) Not only is Sieh Bangura RB4 for the Gophers, but to add insult to injury, his former team isn’t missing him AT ALL with the way Anthony Tyus is rolling. Just one carry for Bangura all season.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone sub $4.5k.
Pivot Play – RB Marcus Major ($4,900) Even if the roles are reversed this week between Major and Taylor (no guarantee), the Oklahoma transfer should still get double-digit carries on Saturday. And as a double-digit favorite, the coaching staff may just be content with leaning on Major while he’s running well, and in turn, keeping Taylor fresh for the long haul. Stacking both Major and Taylor is probably not recommended, but also not out of the question either.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Brosmer ($7,500) Brosmer has been an upgrade over Athan Kaliakmanis, completing 70% of his throws. Nevada is only allowing 17 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks but are 96th in pass D success rate. WR Daniel Jackson ($5,900) hasn’t been as effective as some thought he’d be this season, but still the team leader in targets and routes run. If looking at a secondary Minnesota receiver, Elijah Spencer ($5,000) and Le’Meke Brockington ($4,600) are second and third, respectively in targets / routes.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: Oreg -16
O/U Total: 50
Implied Score: Oreg 33 – OSU 17
Weather: 65 degrees / 35% rain / 4 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan James ($8,200) A bit of a mystery with this Oregon offense so far. Dillon Gabriel has been solid, but not the slate-winning performances we’ve seen from him or Oregon QBs in the past. Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart have traded weeks where they’ve been the primary receiver. If there’s been a constant, it’s James who has averaged over six yards a carry the last two weeks, averaging 19 touches per contest.
Fade – RB Noah Whittington ($6,600) Even as a double-digit favorite, we’re not spending up for a backup running back that is averaging 2.7 yards per carry, on a team that has STRUGGLED to run the football with any consistency. Oregon is 118th in EPA per rush play and 65th in rush play success rate. Not the kind of numbers you expect from the Ducks after facing Idaho and Boise State.
Bargain Bin – TE Kenyon Sadiq ($3,300) Offensive coordinator Will Stein compared the sophomore tight end to Brock Bowers a few weeks ago after his Week 1 performance with four catches for 53 yards vs. Idaho. Notable that in a more competitive environment last week against Boise that Sadiq’s playing time did drop, running only five receiving routes on the night. Extreme long shot play.
Pivot Play – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,900) Tough to complain too much about a quarterback that is completing 84% of his passes with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. The issue is Oregon’s inability to stretch the field – much of which is due to the OL – as Gabriel’s 5.7 average depth of target is almost half the number he posted last year. For reference, Bo Nix had an aDOT last year of 6.8 so perhaps this is just what we should anticipate for the remainder of the year.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Referencing the aDOT for Gabriel we mentioned above, you’d think that would perfectly suit someone like Tez Johnson who operates underneath and in the middle of the field. And for one week it did with 13 targets vs. Idaho. Then last week happened. At this point, we’d just stick with one Oregon receiver maximum in your lineup between Johnson, Evan Stewart and Traeshon Holden who account for 35 of the 68 targets that have gone to Oregon pass-catchers. TE Terrance Ferguson ($4,800) is third on the team in targets (11) and runs a receiving route on 50% of his offensive snaps.
Injury Notes – WR Gary Bryant Jr. ($4,800) Bryant was dressed last week, but did not play against Boise State. He was not seen at practice on Tuesday. Unplayable until we see him in a live game setting.
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Jam Griffin ($6,300) or Anthony Hankerson ($5,400) The dynamic duo for the Beavers rank 12th and 17th, respectively, in rushing yards per game this season as Oregon State is running the football at a 66% clip. Oregon’s defense will be the biggest challenge to date for the Beavers, but they’ve looked vulnerable on the ground, ranking 90th in rush play success rate defensively, allowing almost 200 yards to Ashton Jeanty last week. Both are in play, but don’t stack together.
Fade – QB Gevani McCoy ($7,400) While Oregon’s defense has been vulnerable, the secondary is showing big improvements. 29th in EPA per pass play defensively and 8th in pass D success rate. McCoy has failed to score more than eight fantasy points in a game this season in what is a run-centric offense.
Bargain Bin – WR Taz Reddicks ($3,700) Reddicks is second among Oregon State receivers this season in targets (8) and routes run. He’s listed at the same spot as Darrius Clemons on the depth chart, so Reddicks viability to be rostered on Saturday is tied to Clemons availability. Longshot plays regardless.
Pivot Play – WR Trent Walker ($4,400) We mention target share quite a bit in these writeups. By the end of the season, if a receiver has over 30%, that’s considered elite in college fantasy football. Through two games, Walker has 50% of the team’s targets, after a career-high 13 vs. San Diego State last week in a game they won 21-0. Oregon State will have to throw more on Saturday than they did against the Aztecs.
Best of the Rest – WR David Wells Jr. ($3,500) Aside from Walker and Reddicks, Wells Jr. is the only other Oregon State receiver to have a target this season. Tends to happen on an offense that is only throwing the ball 35% of the time. Walker is realistically the only Oregon State option we’re interested in with the passing game.
Injury Notes – WR Darrius Clemons ($3,000) The former 4-star recruit and Michigan transfer is not listed on the injury report but has yet to play this season. Will Saturday be his debut?
Washington State vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UW -5.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UW 31 – Wazzu 25.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 88% rain / 8 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB John Mateer ($8,900) A Washington State offense throwing just 19 passes is mind-blowing. But that’s what makes Mateer such a great play this week in my opinion. Washington State takes a lead – look for Mateer to be featured in the run game as he did against Texas Tech with nearly 200 yards on the ground. The Cougars are trailing – Mateer throws it 30+ times. However the matchup plays out, the game script will favor Mateer one way or the other.
Fade – WR Tony Freeman ($5,300) Top three Wazzu receivers dominated the snap counts last week in a run-heavy game script. But Freeman played just 18 snaps and didn’t run a single receiving route. Don’t anticipate that being the norm but can’t risk that at $5.3k.
Bargain Bin – RB Wayshawn Parker ($4,100) The true freshman has easily been the team’s best running back, averaging over nine yards per carry with three total touchdowns. The issue is volume as Wazzu will rotate backs, and Mateer is obviously a factor on the ground also. Washington’s run defense has been average to start the year, ranking 62nd in rush D success rate and 74th in EPA per rush play.
Pivot Play – WR Josh Meredith ($4,800) Meredith has burned a few folks, myself included, so far in college fantasy with just two receptions in two games. While we shouldn’t have a ton of exposure, this is still the same offensive system that produced superstars in the slot like Malachi Corley and even Lincoln Victor last year. Not saying it happens this week but feels like it’s still early enough that we can’t totally discount the slot receiver in Ben Arbuckle’s offense.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyle Williams ($7,000) Six targets in two games is far from what we expected out of Williams and this supposed “Air Raid” offense. But he’s a threat to score at any moment with three touchdowns, a whopping 32.4 YPC average and an aDOT of 20.1 yards. WR Kris Hutson ($4,900) leads the team in targets (13) and routes run. The top three of Williams, Hutson and Meredith are not rotating out much so we wouldn’t consider anyone beyond them. Still think there is potential Wazzu reverts back to the Air Raid at some point, so a stack of multiple Cougar WRs in GPP is a potential option, but not optimal.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonah Coleman ($6,800) Consecutive 100-yard rushing performances for Coleman to start the year and he’s done that on only 27 combined carries, averaging nearly nine yards per attempt. Not bad considering UW had to replace all five starters on the OL in the offseason. Early numbers can be deceiving, but Coleman should be able to run the ball against Wazzu who is 106th so far in defensive rush success rate.
Fade – Backup WRs 61% of the team’s targets have gone to the top three of Giles Jackson, Denzel Boston and Jeremiah Hunter. Washington wide receivers that don’t have those names have a combined two targets.
Bargain Bin – TE Keleki Latu ($3,000) Just three receptions on four targets this season for the Nevada transfer, but Latu is on the field literally all the time. Played 100% of the team’s offensive snaps against Eastern Michigan, running a receiving route 42% of the time.
Pivot Play – WR Giles Jackson ($6,900) Jackson is not nearly as talented as his two counterparts on the outside in Denzel Boston and Jeremiah Hunter, but he’s arguably been Washington’s most consistent performer this season. 16 targets, 16 receptions. Jackson plays in the same slot position as did Jacob Cowing last season with Arizona under HC Jedd Fisch that accumulated 100+ targets routinely.
Best of the Rest – QB Will Rogers ($9,200) Not surprising that Rogers has played well through two weeks, completing 77% of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. He has a tremendous running back behind him and a trio of talented wideouts to work with. But as a non-runner, this price should probably be at least $1k lower. Wazzu allowed 22 fantasy points last week to Behren Morton despite the Tech QB throwing 58 passes, so not bad all considered.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M vs. Florida
Point-Spread: A&M -3.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: A&M 25 – UF 21.5
Weather: 86 degrees / 64% rain / 8 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Le’Veon Moss ($7,100) If A&M is forced to play a backup QB, we’ll likely see a heavy dosage of Moss who’s averaging over five yards per carry so far with three rushing TDs. Florida doesn’t do anything well defensively, ranking 61st in rush D success rate and 97th in fantasy points allowed so far to opposing running backs.
Fade – RB Amari Daniels ($6,600) The Notre Dame game is the blueprint in our eyes of how this A&M backfield looks in a competitive game. Daniels had a good rushing week against McNeese with 75 yards and two scores. But vs. the Irish, it was a 20-6 rushing attempt advantage in favor of Moss. $4.6k we might consider Daniels, but $6.6k.
Bargain Bin – QB Marcel Reed ($4,500) Should Weigman sit, from reading around a bit on A&M content, it would appear Reed would get the starting nod over Jaylen Henderson. Reed played sparingly against McNeese with over 100 total yards, including 40+ on the ground. Prior to that, Reed lit up Oklahoma State in the bowl game for 361 passing yards. He’s a legitimate option if Weigman is out.
Pivot Play – WR Cyrus Allen ($4,800) Surprised to see the former Louisiana Tech transfer leading the way for A&M receivers given he was so inconsistent last year. Team leader with 12 targets and playing around 80% of the offensive snaps.
Best of the Rest – WR Jahdae Walker ($5,400) Walker barely played against McNeese last week with a hand injury. He’s set to return on Saturday and did lead the Aggies with nine targets in Week 1. How effective is a receiver with a hand injury, though? WR Noah Thomas ($5,100) is not the WR1 most A&M fans were touting in the offseason with just 38 yards and a touchdown in two games. We’d side with just one A&M receiver in a lineup at maximum.
Injury Notes – QB Conner Weigman ($8,100) Weigman showed up on the Thursday evening injury report as questionable with an undisclosed injury. Sounds as though he was not fully healthy coming out of the Notre Dame contest and re-injured himself in practice. A&M isn’t good enough throwing the football to even risk a less than 100 percent Conner Weigman.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Montrell Johnson Jr. ($6,100) Normally this spot would be held for Eugene Wilson, but we’re unsure of his availability for Saturday. Johnson is dominating the backfield market share with 45% of the team’s rushing attempts. We’re used to RBBCs under Billy Napier dating back to his days with Louisiana but doesn’t seem to be the case this year. A&M has been below average so far defending the run, ranking 15th out of 16 teams in yards allowed on the ground.
Fade – QBs. Billy Napier hasn’t done much right during his time at Florida. And when given the chance to start his 5-star freshman quarterback, he’s surely going to do it, right? Welp. Graham Mertz is not listed on the injury report after missing the contest vs. Samford and there’s potential we see both he and DJ Lagway vs. A&M. A two-QB system is the word on the streets right now, which eliminates this situation entirely in DFS.
Bargain Bin – WR Elijhah Badger ($4,600) Badger has been Florida’s second-best receiver, and the Gators might be short-handed if Wilson cannot go. Badger is averaging over 27 yards per catch with a 24.8 aDOT, so he’s really challenging secondaries down the field.
Pivot Play – WR Chimere Dike ($4,700) The Wisconsin transfer is on the field a bunch, but not that effective. Second in routes run yet targeted just three times. He gets a slight bump up if Wilson doesn’t go. I believe either WR Kahleil Jackson ($3,000) or WR Aidan Mizell ($3,600) would be the replacements in the starting lineup if Wilson sat.
Best of the Rest – TE Arlis Boardingham ($4,700) I thought Boardingham would be more of a factor after his freshman debut. Third in targets (7) and fourth in routes run, but a combined 20 yards receiving in two games.
Injury Notes – WR Eugene Wilson ($7,200) Wilson is questionable for Saturday, but was at practice on Thursday and did not have the non-contact jersey on. Promising news for his availability on Saturday.
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: WVU -1.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: WVU 33 – Pitt 31.5
Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Greene ($7,800) Will be one of, if not the highest owned QB on the slate because of this median salary. While we like Greene more as a runner, he should find some success through the air against this Pitt secondary that is 100th in EPA per pass play defensively. Drew Allar and Brendan Sorsby combined for close to 60 fantasy points against this defense.
Fade – WR Jaden Bray ($4,100) Bray is the king of offseason hype yet failing to live up to expectations. Just three targets in two games with one very bad drop against Penn State. Bray played just 13 snaps last week and might have been surpassed by Justin Robinson on the pecking order.
Bargain Bin – TE Kole Taylor ($4,100) Taylor has been solid so far with seven targets and a touchdown, facing a Pitt defense that allowed Cincinnati tight end Joe Royer to have 49 yards and a score last week. His usage was much better in the opening week in a competitive game, playing 86% of the snaps against Penn State and the most routes run on the team.
Pivot Play – RB Jaheim White ($6,000) A lot of players will be on Greene, so the obvious pivot is to the very good West Virginia ground attack led by White. After suffering an injury in Week 1 vs. Penn State, White was back to his explosive self, averaging 9.6 yards per carry on 10 attempts with a touchdown. Pitt has been better at defending the run so far, but did allow 100+ to Corey Kiner last week. RB CJ Donaldson ($5,300) is not out of the equation either and should see double-digit rushing attempts. He just doesn’t possess the same breakaway ability that White does.
Best of the Rest – WR Preston Fox ($4,500) Pick your poison with the West Virginia receivers as nobody has more than 20% target share. Right now, the Mountaineers are going about seven deep in the rotation, including sophomores Rodney Gallagher and freshman Ric’Darious Farmer who are seeing consistent playing time. Fox is the team leader with 10 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Pittsburgh:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($6,400) Reid probably has the highest ownership of the entire slate after what he’s done the first two games, scoring close to 80 combined fantasy points as a threat in the run and pass game. Advanced data likes this West Virginia run defense, but the Mountaineers also gave up 100+ in Week 1 to Nick Singleton.
Fade – WR Daejon Reynolds ($3,700) A former starter for Pitt last season, Reynolds has simply been passed over by the incoming transfers. Zero targets and has essentially been relegated to special teams and blocking duties.
Bargain Bin – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($3,800) All these newfound weapons at receiver and Pitt is still incorporating the tight end into the offense as Bartholomew has five targets in each of the first two games. And obviously, he’s not just being used inline as a blocker. On 67 snaps last week vs. Cincinnati, Bartholomew ran a receiving route 57% of the time.
Pivot Play – WR Konata Mumpfield ($6,000) We were mentioning all the new pieces Pitt had at receiver last week, but the most experienced Pitt receiver has been the most productive so far in Mumpfield who has found the end-zone three times in two games. Eight targets in both weeks. Pitt will rotate 5-6 different options each week so not sure how consistent this production will be, but so far so good.
Best of the Rest – QB Eli Holstein ($7,300) The final stat line for Holstein isn’t indicative of how he played for the entirety of the game, but all we care about is the fantasy points right? 30+ in each of the first two games. Weapons a plenty at receiver and tight end with a dynamic running back paired with Holstein in the backfield. Plus, he has some wheels I didn’t realize he had, with 50 rushing yards on eight attempts. Most importantly, this offense is operating at a much faster pace under its new offensive coordinator than the stale schemes the Panthers have employed in the past. WRs Kenny Johnson ($4,500), Raphael Williams Jr. ($4,600) and Censere Lee ($3,900) are all part of the current rotation with Mumpfield at wideout and can be used as fillers in your lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: ND -9.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: ND 27.5 – Purd 18
Weather: 83 degrees / 24% rain / 9 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiyah Love ($5,700) Thought initially this might be a 50-50 split backfield, but we saw some separation last week against NIU. Love held a 11-4 advantage in rushing attempts over RB Jadarian Price ($6,900) and a 50-20% advantage in time spent on the field. The pricing for these two players is backwards.
Fade – QB Riley Leonard ($8,200) Haven’t been able to find confirmation on this, but rumors swirling that backup Steve Angeli was getting first-team reps in practice after last week’s dismal performance. Hard to imagine Leonard getting replaced, but he was dreadful against NIU last Saturday. If the winning lineup has Leonard in it, kudos to them.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone sub $5k.
Pivot Play – TE Mitchell Evans ($5,400) Evans still isn’t playing his full allotment of reps coming back from injury, but you see the steady increase over the course of two weeks. After playing just 10 snaps in the opener, that number rose to 17 snaps against NIU, running a route 77% of the time. Would imagine that number only continues to go up.
Best of the Rest – WRs. With all the incoming transfers, this is essentially the same group as last year. A collection of ‘meh’. Beaux Collins leads the team in routes run. Jaden Greathouse had a season-high nine targets last Saturday – good for 41 yards and a drop. Kris Mitchell is second in routes run but has a 40% catch rate.
Injury Notes – WR Jordan Faison ($4,300) Absent again from the depth chart. Faison is out this week.
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Mockobee ($4,400) There’s too much disparity between the salaries for the ND players and Purdue players. These should all be much closer together. Mockobee gets the slight nod as Purdue’s top option as there seemed to be plenty of rushing room last weekend for NIU’s Antario Brown against this Notre Dame defense. The Irish are 111th in rush D success rate.
Fade – RB Reggie Love ($4,900) This is the exact same situation as the Notre Dame backfield with the prices being flipped. Love is a solid player that will complement Mockobee well, but he’s the RB2.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($3,400) Over his last six games played, Klare is averaging five targets per with a 90% catch rate. That’s awesome production for a college tight end and his price certainly won’t break the bank.
Pivot Play – WR Jahmal Edrine ($4,300) Reports came out of Purdue camp that the former Florida Atlantic transfer, who missed all last season due to injury, was emerging as the team’s WR1. Opening week didn’t do anything to dispel that notion as Edrine had 4-59-0 on five targets. Edrine is a big-play opportunist, averaging over 14 yards per catch back with FAU.
Best of the Rest – QB Hudson Card ($6,800) Cheap enough to consider given his most recent performance in Week 1, completing 24 of 25 passes for 273 yards and four touchdowns. He seems to have complete command of Graham Harrell’s offense in Year 2. The secondary is Notre Dame’s strength on defense, though they haven’t faced any QBs as good as Card yet. WR Shamar Rigby ($3,000) is a 6-foot-3 true freshman that was a major surprise on the opening depth chart. His 67% snaps played in Week 1 were the most of any Purdue receiver. WR Jaron Tibbs ($3,500) was targeted four times vs. Indiana State and should operate as WR3.
Injury Notes – n/a
