Georgia vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: UGA -24.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: UGA 38.5 – SC 14
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Stetson Bennett ($7,300) DraftKings drops Bennett’s salary by almost two grand after Week 1 yet has outperformed expectations averaging over 28 FPPG through two games. Make it make sense. When did Georgia start running the Air Raid offense? 40 passing attempts per game through two weeks despite beating Oregon and Samford by a combined total of 79-3. Ruthless. Quarterback Stetson Bennett has continued his stellar play that led Georgia to a trophy last season, completing 75% of his passes with five total touchdowns.
Fade – TE Brock Bowers ($7,000) Now that I’m suggesting we fade Bowers, he’ll probably go off for a buck fifty and two scores. Because that’s how it goes. Just can’t rationalize spending $7k on a tight end with seven targets in just two games. In competitive matchups, we’ll see more of the Georgia starters, but how competitive will this game actually be? TE Darnell Washington ($3,900) has just one less target yet is $3,100 cheaper.
Bargain Bin – WR Dillon Bell ($3,000) The freshman was targeted seven times vs. Samford and caught the first touchdown reception of his college career. This was in the first half, subbing in for Mitchell after his injury. Should Mitchell be unavailable, look for increased playing time from Bell or WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($3,700).
Pivot Play – RB Kendall Milton ($5,100) Just when you think you know what the Georgia offensive game plan will be, Kirby Smart will flip the script on you and do the exact opposite. Georgia has not run the football effectively this season and had a poor showing against an overmatched Samford team. South Carolina lost two starting defenders for the season last week vs. Arkansas and three more starters are questionable on that side of the ball. Could be a get-right game for the UGA rush offense.
Best of the Rest – RB Kenny McIntosh ($6,700) The “backup” RB leads the Bulldogs with 14 receptions on 14 targets, playing the James Cook role from a year ago. McIntosh and Milton’s snap counts are nearly identical. WR Ladd McConkey ($6,000) leads all wide receivers with 10 targets and a 15.7 aDOT. Always hesitant to play Georgia receivers despite the high implied team totals. Why? 15 different players caught a pass last week vs. Samford.
Injury Notes – WR Adonai Mitchell ($7,200) is questionable with an ankle sprain. Not rostering him regardless of if he plays or not.
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Antwane Wells ($4,200) The James Madison transfer was the best player on the field Saturday in Fayetteville that was not named Raheim Sanders. Posted 8-189-1 on 10 targets, giving him 18 total targets through two games. No other South Carolina receiver has more than seven.
Fade – RB Marshawn Lloyd ($5,000) 20+ fantasy points in each of the first two weeks for the former 5-star recruit, who has looked like the 5-star recruit as he’s come back from injury. Lloyd’s utilization in the passing game is what will keep him in play for us in CFF/DFS, catching eight passes in two games. But South Carolina is struggling mightily to run the football, averaging just 1.9 YPC as a team. Not the week to fix those struggles against the Georgia front.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaheim Bell ($3,300) Was a popular punt play last week but proved to not be worth it as Bell scored just seven fantasy points with a 4th quarter garbage time touchdown run. Still think these sub-$3,500 prices keep him in the realm of possibilities because of his utilization as both a receiver and runner but is only playing 39% of the offensive snaps. Far less than what we thought it would be in the preseason.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen Brooks ($3,600) Unlikely to be someone in any of my lineups, but Brooks is the third option in the USC passing game behind Wells and Lloyd with seven targets. Has played 69% of the offensive snaps which is third most of any non-offensive linemen.
Best of the Rest – QB Spencer Rattler ($5,200) I’m going to be tempted to play Rattler this weekend, I just know it. Game script will favor Rattler as a three-touchdown underdog and South Carolina’s inability to generate any sort of running game should lead to 30+ pass attempts. Completed 62% of his throws last week vs. Arkansas, though he continues to struggle with his deep ball accuracy. Writing this pre-projections release but I’m assuming we’ll see around 15 fantasy points expected. Worth it at just $5,200?
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: OU -10.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: OU 38.5 – Neb 28
Weather: 82 degrees / 43% rain / 20 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,500) Another selection by default as Gabriel is the player we trust most on the OU offense to produce points, but unlikely to be a player we’re owning much of because of his pricing. Weird line movement in Vegas this week where the Sooners opened at 13.5-point favorites, and now dropping to 10.5. Insiders think Nebraska gets a injection of confidence with Scott Frost’s firing? The Cornhuskers have one of the worst pass defenses in the entire country, allowing 284.7 YPG, but the weather looks to be a concern for Saturday with rain and wind in the forecast.
Fade – Theo Wease ($7,700) Not even worthy of a pivot play for lower ownership. Second on the team in targets and second in offensive snaps played among receivers, sure. Yet all he’s done with that time on the field is four receptions for minimal yardage. WR Jalil Farooq ($5,000) is the play if you’re looking at another Oklahoma receiver not named Marvin Mims.
Bargain Bin – TE Brayden Willis ($3,700) Quite performance against Kent State with just one reception, but still sees the field more than any other Oklahoma skill position player. Was still targeted four times last week, just didn’t see the production.
Pivot Play – WR Marvin Mims ($8,900) Those that have played CFB DFS the last two seasons know that Mims’ stat-lines can be a rollercoaster. And he’s cost myself significant money over the years with his dud performances with Lincoln Riley playing him less than half the time. But it’s evident through two games that Mims and Gabriel have chemistry, as the junior wideout leads the team with 10 receptions on 12 targets and 46% of OU’s receiving yards. Still third among OU receivers in terms of overall offensive snaps, but hasn’t diminished his production. Will be very low owned on Saturday given his salary, but is the potential GPP winner we seek.
Best of the Rest – RB Eric Gray ($7,500) Maybe interim head coach Micky Joseph will have the Cornhuskers playing inspired football, but Nebraska has been shredded in the run game the last two weeks…by North Dakota and Georgia Southern. Trouble here with Gray is he looked like his 2021 self against Kent State, where some would argue that backup Marcus Major ($5,100) might be the best back on the roster. Has seen just 12 rushing attempts but averaging well over seven yards per attempt with three touchdowns. Think we’ll start seeing a split backfield here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – WR Trey Palmer ($4,200) I’m assuming Palmer has this low a salary because he hasn’t found the end-zone yet? Only reason I can see, because he’s been very productive otherwise, converting on 72% of his 25 targets through three games with 18 receptions to lead the Cornhuskers. $4,200 is too cheap for a WR1 on a team that is averaging 32.3 pass/att per game.
Fade – WRs beyond the top two. We’ll hit on who WR2 is below, but the top two for Nebraska currently account for 44% of the team’s total target share, with only Alante Brown in double digits (10 targets). Since scoring a touchdown in the opener, Isaiah Garcia-Casteneda has been targeted just twice in two games and playing just 35% of snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Marcus Washington ($3,600) Offensive outburst for the Nebraska offense last week, albeit in a losing effort, with the Texas transfer having his best game of the year with 6-123-0 on eight targets which tied for the team lead.
Pivot Play – QB Casey Thompson ($6,800) Vegas totals and projections I’ve seen elsewhere agree that we should be expecting around four touchdowns for Nebraska Saturday. At these prices, realistically everyone is in place. If there has been a weaker component of the OU defense between defending the pass or run, it has been the secondary (not bad by any stretch), rankings 61st in success rate via the pass. And if that doesn’t work, Thompson is always a threat with his legs, as he proved last week with three rushing scores. Don’t think Thompson will get much attention in GPPs.
Best of the Rest – RB Anthony Grant ($6,200) This is a historical coaching trend that is not following suit this year where OC Mark Whipple has seemingly always preferred a RBBC. Not in 2022 where the former JUCO transfer is garnering 62% of the market volume share in the Nebraska backfield. The Sooners are allowing just 2.31 yards per carry through two games.
Injury Notes – TE Travis Vokolek is day-to-day with injury.
Purdue vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: Cuse -1.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: Cuse 30.5 – Purd 29
Weather: Dome
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – WR Charlie Jones ($8,000) Known in the streets as Chuck Sizzle, the former Iowa transfer has been a revelation for the Boilermakers with 28 targets through two games and four receiving touchdowns. And from a game script standpoint, this matchup should favor Jones again as the line movement has flipped this week towards the Orange who are now a 1.5-point favorite.
Fade – RB King Doerue ($5,700) Doerue is only in play if you’re one of those that uploads 200 different lineup combinations. The Boilermakers are 130th out of 131 teams, running the football just 27.7% of the time in 2022.
Bargain Bin – TE Payne Durham ($4,000) Slow start for a projected Top 12 tight end in college fantasy, with just three receptions in two games. Durham has been targeted eight times and has been on the field for 104 of the total 134 offensive snaps, so as long as that continues, one has to believe more production will come with.
Pivot Play – WR Tyrone Tracy ($5,600) I think we’ve heard this from the Purdue staff now for consecutive weeks. “We want to get him more involved; we want to get Tracy more touches.” Ok, when? The other Iowa transfer is playing just 29% of offensive snaps yet is tied for second in team targets with nine. A DISTANT second behind Jones, but when on the field, Tracy is getting looks.
Best of the Rest – Thought we’d see a higher game total for a matchup most would peg as a possible shootout. Obviously like QB Aidan O’Connell ($7,500) but is priced up compared to late last year when he was throwing for 400 yards per game routinely and still sat in the low $6K range. Purdue/Syracuse are inside the top 50 in plays run per game so we should see some fast-paced action. WR Mershawn Rice ($3,500) and TJ Sheffield ($4,300) both should realistically be min-priced but are on the field around 59% of offensive snaps with a combined 15 targets in two games. Extreme longshots.
Injury Notes – WR Broc Thompson will again be a game-time decision. HC Jeff Brohm stated they’re going to have to manage his playing time all year long. Doesn’t sound like a guy we want to invest in.
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Shrader ($6,400) Back-to-back 30+ point fantasy performances and DraftKings wants to drop his salary. The disrespect. Let’s continue to get credit to offensive coordinator Robert Anae who is a miracle worker for turning Shrader into, not only a competent thrower of the football, but one of the best quarterbacks in the country through two games. Just under 80% of his passes completed with eight total touchdowns. Will be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Fade – Non Shrader/Tucker players on Syracuse. Don’t hesitate for a second to throw both Shrader and Tucker in your lineups as the Syracuse duo has played a part in 93% of the team’s total offensive output. On the flipside, don’t feel the need to include anyone else from the Orange, despite an implied total over 30 points. Six different receivers have somewhere between 3-9 targets.
Bargain Bin – WR Devaughn Cooper ($3,000) Wise lesson that I’d advise other DFS players, that sometimes even I need to remind myself on occasion. Once we get beyond the first few weeks, min-priced players like Cooper should really not be a realistic option for anyone. Most of the time, they’ll be listed like that for a reason so best to just avoid temptation. Listing Cooper here as he’s second on the team in targets (9).
Pivot Play – RB Sean Tucker ($8,900) We were nervous about Tucker’s role in this new offensive scheme given RBs were a complete non-factor at Virginia, but this involvement in the passing game is a subtle tweak from Anae that we did not see in the last few years. Tucker actually leads the team with 11 targets. Playing both he and Shrader in lineups together is a viable option.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Truly throw a dart on names like Oronde Gadsden, Courtney Jackson, Damian Alford, etc. Someone will likely score a touchdown, but your guess is as good as mine as to who that will be.
Injury Notes – n/a
Western Kentucky vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: Ind -6.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Ind 34.5 – WKU 28
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Daewood Davis ($5,200) Davis leads the Hilltoppers in targets (17) through two games, and we’ll absolutely target the salary-saving option over the other WKU receiver in this scenario. Davis is not target-dependent like his counterpart, averaging 18.4 yards per reception and an aDOT of 17.3. One long touchdown is essentially all we need from Davis to pay off his salary.
Fade – WR Malachi Corley ($8,100) Just a two-game sample size, but I think we can all agree that Austin Reed is not Bailey Zappe and Malachi Corley won’t be Jerreth Sterns. 11 targets per game was the floor for Sterns last season, and that’s how many Corley has through two weeks. Everything was behind the line of scrimmage against Hawaii as Corley posted just 12 yards on four receptions with a negative aDOT. We need to see more here before investing on that kind of salary.
Bargain Bin – n/a Not investing in WKU running backs on the road against a Big Ten opponent. And the WR target share is heavily swayed towards Davis/Corley so far at 46%. No other WKU receiver has more than seven targets through two games and I don’t think we’re going to see three consistently viable WR options for Western Kentucky in 2022.
Pivot Play – QB Austin Reed ($7,800) Several worthy options at the quarterback position in this slate, and we could all agree that Reed has been just ‘ok’ so far. But we’re looking at four touchdowns scored for WKU on Saturday and safe bet to assume at least two will come via the pass. Indiana allowed Idaho quarterback Gevani McCoy to throw for 204 yards and three touchdowns last Saturday…in the rain. The CFFSite’s 22.1-point projection at $7,800 likely means we stay away from Reed this week but could be a low-owned QB in a game-stack if you think this game shoots out.
Best of the Rest – As we stated above, pick your poison when it comes to the WKU receivers outside of Davis/Corley. WR Michael Mathison ($4,100) is third in targets (7) but is target-dependent, averaging just 0.70 yards per route run. Everything comes underneath. WR Dalvin Smith ($3,900) caught a touchdown vs. Hawaii on four targets but played all of 11 snaps. WR Jaylen Hall ($6,000) should be $2K cheaper, at least.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Cam Camper ($4,800) Legitimate belief of mine – I can throw a football with more accuracy than Connor Bazelak. Imagine the numbers that Cam Camper could have right now with 36% of Indiana’s target share if Bazelak could hit the broad side of a barn. Through two games, Camper has 15 receptions and averaging 14 targets per game.
Fade – QB Connor Bazelak ($6,200) You know those dudes in a rec basketball gym who are like 7-feet tall, blessed with all the height in the world, yet can’t make a damn layup still? That’s Connor Bazelak. Howitzer of an arm and the physical stature of what you want in a quarterback, yet a career completion percentage of under 55%.
Bargain Bin – TE A.J. Barner ($3,500) If there is a third option in the Indiana passing game, it’s Barner who found the end-zone against Idaho with 57 yards on three receptions. Has played 122 of the 148 total offensive snaps for the Hoosiers through two games.
Pivot Play – WR DJ Matthews ($5,900) Camper is the WR1 over two weeks, but the top two receivers for Indiana have separated themselves, as Camper/Matthews combine for 55% of the team’s total target share. Matthews found the end-zone twice last week vs. Idaho and will see far less ownership percentages because of his salary.
Best of the Rest – RB Shaun Shivers ($6,100) projects well this week at 16.8 fantasy points after a big week against Idaho with 155 yards and a score on 20 carries. Accounting now for 65% market share in the Indiana backfield. Western Kentucky is limiting opponents to under three yards per carry on the ground so far…. but have played Austin Peay and Hawaii.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami (OH) vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cincy -22.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: Cincy 36.5 – Mia (OH) 14
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Miami (OH):
We’re not playing a backup quarterback against Cincinnati, and we don’t pay any attention to Miami (Ohio) running backs until desperation mode during MACtion. Only player of interest here is WR Mac Hippenhammer ($5,100) who is off to a nice start this season with 11 receptions and two touchdowns. 27% of the team’s target share thus far, and the only wide receiver I’d trust for the RedHawks with a backup QB.
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – n/a I promise this is not a cop out. But nine different Cincinnati Bearcat players scored touchdowns last Saturday against Kennesaw State. Nine. We have a committee (as of now) in the backfield. There is no Alec Pierce at WR this year. And we legitimately might see both quarterbacks based upon what transpired last week. Cincinnati likely wins this game going away, but right now they do not have a player that is relevant to us.
Fade – WR Tyler Scott ($6,600) Scott was targeted 12 times in the Week 1 matchup with Arkansas, but game script played a major role as Cincinnati was trailing for much of the contest. Miami (Ohio) will put up more of a fight than Kennesaw State did, so we’ll see the starters for greater lengths of time, but this is too pricy a cost for a team that rarely has a WR garner a heavy target share.
Bargain Bin – RB Myles Montgomery ($3,000) Assuming a blowout, and with Ryan Montgomery less than 100%, the younger Montgomery should see extended playing time in the fourth quarter as the Bearcats continue to figure out rotations for the season. The redshirt freshman had a 76-yard touchdown scamper last weekend, topping 100 yards for the first time in his career.
Pivot Play – QB Ben Bryant ($7,200) *Very* strong likelihood we see both Bryant and Evan Prater on Saturday, as the latter looked like Desmond Ridder in his extended action last week against Kennesaw State. If only we could mold these two quarterbacks together. That said, it was still Bryant who saw the majority of the playing time, and played well with 207 yards and three scores. Could be a situation where folks are scared off playing Bryant because of the Prater threat.
Best of the Rest – Seniority exists in the Cincy backfield as RB Charles McClelland ($3,700) got the starting nod over RB Corey Kiner ($5,500). The senior back played well, rushing for 66 yards on 11 carries with a score, but there is no comparison in overall talent between the two players. And we saw Cincinnati ride Kiner in crunch time Week 1. Through two weeks, Miami (Ohio) is No. 1 in the MAC conference, allowing just 1.7 yards per carry.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Alabama vs. UCLA
Point-Spread: UCLA -15.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: UCLA 38 – USA 22.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
South Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Jalen Wayne ($5,500) Wayne is doing his best Jalen Tolbert impersonation in 2022, scoring 24+ fantasy points in each of the first two games, and targeted a team-high 20 times. Step up in class this week against UCLA where the Bruins have allowed just 348 passing yards in two games, but have been completely untested. UCLA is inexperienced and short on depth in their secondary with just one starter back from 2021.
Fade – La’Damian Webb ($5,800) If there is a component of the UCLA defense that is better than the other, it would be the front seven where most of the experience returns from last year. And while competition in two games has been minimal, the Bruins do rank No. 1 in the Pac-12 against the run, allowing just 62 yards per game. Argument in favor of Webb is that he’s garnering 52% of the backfield market share with four of the five South Alabama rushing touchdowns, but the Jaguars also haven’t played any team worth a hoot yet.
Bargain Bin – WR Devin Voisin ($3,800) Not considering anyone outside the top four of Bradley, Webb, Wayne and Lacy for USA this week, but Voisin is the longshot play as he’s played more snaps than any skill position player not named Carter Bradley. Season-high four receptions and a touchdown on six targets last week vs. Central Michigan.
Pivot Play – WR Caullin Lacy ($4,100) Lacy is second on the team in targets (13) through two games with 11 receptions and the secondary option in the South Alabama passing attack. The intriguing part with Lacy in 2022 is he’s being utilized differently if you look at the numbers. 15.4 yards per reception, 9.2 aDOT and 2.82 yards per route run. Those numbers were 6.7, 3.6 and 0.88, respectively, last season. Dramatic improvement.
Best of the Rest – QB Carter Bradley ($6,100) Probably won’t consider Bradley at all this week with a 19.1-point projection but we made some arguments above that are intriguing. He’s got a legit WR1 in Jalen Wayne. UCLA’s secondary is young and untested. And I like that the Vegas line has moved up to 60.5 where the Jaguars are projected at three touchdowns. I think South Alabama can have some semblance of success offensively vs. the Bruins.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB Zach Charbonnet ($6,300) Don’t usually have this big a name as a mysterious no-show, but such was the case last week against Alabama State. Don’t have an insight into the specifics but makes sense to sit UCLA’s best player in a game that he clearly wasn’t needed as the Bruins won 45-7. Every indication is that Charbonnet is ready to roll, and likely has one of the highest ownerships of the slate. Strong performance last week out of the USA defense, holding Lew Nichols to just 29 yards on 15 attempts.
Fade – RB Keegan Jones ($6,000) 10 carries in each of the last two games for Keegan Jones, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Charbonnet back in the starting lineup, in a matchup that should be a bit more competitive than UCLA’s first two outings, means there’s no chance we’re spending up to $6K for a backup. 20+ carries for Charbonnet, assuming clean bill of health, should be a lock.
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Ezeike ($3,500) I’ll throw it out there that I will not be playing Ezeike this week in DFS. We harped on all offseason about how TE usage is prevalent in Chip Kelly’s offensive system. And that hasn’t changed. I just don’t like the wording from the beat writer saying that Ezeike “was practicing Wednesday and looks like he could be available Saturday.” The issue for me is…if we didn’t hear about Charbonnet, than it’s unlikely we get confirmation on Ezeike. And he’s not worth risking a goose egg.
Pivot Play – Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($8,300) With everyone on Charbonnet this week, DTR is a strong pivot option. Decision really could come down to if you want to play both in the same lineup at an implied total of 38 points. DTR played just a half last week, but again, indications are he’s full-go. We referenced South Alabama’s strong rush defense through two games, but their secondary has been equally as good, limiting it’s first two opponents to just five yards per attempt. The Jaguars run a 4-2-5 defensive scheme, playing with five defensive backs in the starting lineup.
Best of the Rest – We need this WR situation to play out a bit more before confidently rostering someone. Slot man Kazmier Allen ($5,900) looks to have made the successful transition from RB to WR, assuming the Kyle Philips role from last year, and leads the team with 17 targets. All reports during the offseason suggested it would be Duke transfer Jake Bobo ($6,200) assuming the WR1 mantle but appears to be a second or even third option with just six targets in two games. Not worth consideration but the interesting one to me is UCF transfer and former 4-star Titus Mokiao-Atimalala ($3,000) who has just five targets but has played 60% of the team’s offensive snaps. Not sure what to make of that one yet.
Injury Notes – G2G
California vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -11.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: ND 26.5 – Cal 16
Weather: 86 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
California:
Top Play(s) – RB Jadyn Ott ($4,500) The 3-star freshman has been Cal’s best player on offense, topping 21+ fantasy points in each of the first two games. The concern here is the rotation at running back where, despite Ott rushing for 107 yards on 17 carries in the opening week, the coaching staff continues to start Damien Moore. Even worse, they gave third-stringer DeCarlos Brooks 26 snaps against UNLV. So while Ott is the top play for Cal here, there’s also a chance he gets single-digit carries on Saturday in a RBBC.
Fade – RB Damien Moore ($3,600) Moore will get the first carry as the “starter” but will give way to the more talented option in Ott by the second or third drive.
Bargain Bin – TE Keleki Latu ($3,200) Let me paint a quick picture. It’s 1:25 pm, just ahead of start time for this matchup. And we get word from the 2:30 window that both BYU’s Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney will play this week after being questionable due to injury. You had $3,200 Chase Roberts in the flex and you wanted to swap him out. Latu would at least be an option here after being targeted five times last week vs. UNLV. There’s a reason he’s 3,200, its an extreme dart throw, but he’s graded out as one of the best offensive players for Cal through two games, and is a talented sophomore at 6-foot-6.
Pivot Play – QB Jack Plummer ($4,900) Despite the low game total, and one that has dropped throughout the week, I’ll be at least tempted to throw out a $4,900 Jack Plummer in one GPP lineup. UC Davis and UNLV aren’t defensive juggernauts by any stretch, but the former Purdue transfer is completing 68% of his passes with four touchdowns so far and is averaging 37 attempts per game. Game script should allow for Plummer to reach that mark again this week as a near two-touchdown dog. Weapons at receiver are far better for Cal than they were a year ago, and Plummer can scoot if he must. 17-point projection at $4,900 for a guy that has played in big environments before.
Best of the Rest – Wide receiver will probably be a crapshoot every week for Cal so have to be careful with rostering any of them. But good news is the top three in Jeremiah Hunter ($4,700), Mavin Anderson ($3,500) and J. Michael Sturdivant ($3,600) have separated themselves from the pack, garnering 60% of the team’s total target share. Hunter leads overall with 16 targets, but it was Sturdivant leading the way against UNLV with 10 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – TE Michael Mayer ($5,600) Stating the obvious here. 38% of the team’s total target share which is an absurd rate for a tight end.
Fade – RB Logan Diggs ($3,500) If the Irish struggled to run the football against Marshall, I doubt they’ll fare substantially better this week. ND offensive line has talent, but ranked 114th in Stuff Rate and 96th in Line Yards through two games. Diggs still looks to be recovering from injury as he sits third in the RB rotation with 47 snaps.
Bargain Bin – RBs Chris Tyree ($4,000) and Audric Estime ($3,000) As stated above, the run blocking for the Irish has been very poor through two games. Estime’s lumbering running style isn’t really suited to succeed if the OL isn’t doing it’s job, but he’s min priced and still got 10 carries last week. Not going to roster either player, but I’d be more on the side of Tyree here at $4K who is likely to see less than 1% ownership. Just 12 touches in two games is a very bizarre game plan for one of the better athletes Notre Dame has on offense, but OC Tommy Rees stated this week that “we have to find a way to highlight his ability.” Maybe we see Tyree more involved both as a runner and receiver?
Pivot Play – WR Lorenzo Styles ($4,600) WR1 on a team struggling to run the football? He’ll be a forgotten man in GPPs, but was targeted nine times vs. Marshall, finishing with seven receptions. On a team lacking consistent playmakers outside of Mayer, Styles has to be at least considered here.
Best of the Rest – WR Braden Lenzy ($3,700) Lenzy has played the most snaps of any skill position player and is tied for second on the team with Styles with 11 targets.
Injury Notes – QB Tyler Buchner is out for the season.
Penn State vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: PSU -3.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: PSU 25.5 – Aub 22
Weather: 86 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Penn St:
Top Play(s) – WR Mitchell Tinsley ($5,800) Penn State didn’t need to throw the ball last week. They will against Auburn, and Tinsley has posted 17 targets in two games, finding the end-zone in both. WR1 being the outside receiver in Mike Yurcich’s scheme will continue for the ninth straight season if the first two weeks are any indication.
Fade – RB Nick Singleton ($5,300) 5-star gunna 5-star, eventually. And we saw it against Ohio, rushing for 179 yards and two scores on just 10 carries. But that was Ohio. Now it’s a road opponent in SEC country. And the advanced stats still say that there are issues on the Penn State offensive line, ranking 125th in stuff rate and 126th in line yards. Auburn limited its first two opponents to just 2.13 yards per carry.
Bargain Bin – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($4,300) Sits second on the team in targets with 10 and second among the Penn State receivers in offensive snaps, ahead of WR Parker Washington ($6,100). I’d lean Washington here in GPP, but Clifford will distribute the ball around to the top three receivers which does put KLS in play as a dart throw.
Pivot Play – QB Sean Clifford ($5,600) Likely not playing Clifford here, as I believe he’s still not 100% since that opener against Purdue. But like we hinted above, the offensive line is still having struggles creating lanes and getting push consistently. Maybe we get a few splash plays from Singleton, but I expect Penn State to be forced to throw the ball against the Tigers. 20-point projection for a $5,600 quarterback? Its not the most outlandish selection.
Best of the Rest – n/a. The five players above are the only considerations on Penn State.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn:
Short and sweet. Just one player projected to score more than 11 points this week with RB Tank Bigsby ($5,600). Middle of the road advanced stats when looking at the performance of the Auburn offensive line against inferior competition the first two games, and we know Penn State is going to load the box, so I’m not jamming Bigsby into every lineup. But 20+ touches in what is a competitive game feels like a lock here. Was targeted six times last week vs. San Jose State.
Mississippi vs. Georgia Tech
Point-Spread: Miss -16.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Miss 39.5 – G-Tech 23
Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Zach Evans ($6,500) When Ole Miss is on the slate, this will be the same answer each week. In the only ‘somewhat’ competitive game that the Rebels have played, Evans had 22 touches so I’m not really worried about potential workload.
Fade – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,000) There is no official word as to who is starting, though it was reported by the Ole Miss beat writer this week that Dart is getting most of the reps with the 1s. We’ll probably know Friday afternoon post-publish of this article. Still a steep price to pay for a quarterback that has looked ‘ok’ through two weeks. The Ole Miss WR corps being a complete mess hasn’t helped matters to be fair, and why not lean on this uber-talented backfield?
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Trigg ($3,400) One of a few underpriced tight ends on the slate, Trigg appears to be the only constant in the entire Ole Miss passing game, leading the team with nine receptions on 12 targets and notched three receiving touchdowns last Saturday. Second only behind Jaxson Dart in offensive snaps played amongst the Rebel skill players.
Pivot Play – RB Quinshon Judkins ($3,500) Surprisingly to some, I think you’re going to see decent ownership numbers for Judkins this week in a possible blowout situation. The talented true freshman is averaging nearly eight yards a carry through two games and is now top three among all running backs in the country in missed tackles forced. Judkins has already surpassed Ulysses Bentley it appears on the depth chart.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Messy. We have five to choose from, and nobody has really established themselves as ‘the’ guy like we’ve seen in the past. Malik Heath ($7,300) gets the highest salary because of his two receiving touchdowns but is fourth on the team in targets (8). Jonathan Mingo ($6,200) is tied for the team lead among wide receivers in targets (9) with J.J. Henry ($3,000). His seven targets led the Rebels last week against Central Arkansas but is splitting time in the slot with Jaylon Robinson ($4,900).
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia Tech:
Really don’t have to dive into the Georgia Tech receivers here as QB Jeff Sims ($6,000) is set to start again and has shown zero growth as a passer. Vegas is anticipating three touchdowns from the Yellow Jackets on Saturday and Sims is a dynamic runner so maybe he reaches value with his legs. RB Dontae Smith ($4,700) rushed for three touchdowns last weekend and accounts for 47% of the backfield market share. Ole Miss has been stifling against the run in the first two weeks, limiting opponents to just 2.2 yards per carry. WR Nate McCollum ($3,900) leads the team with seven receptions on 10 targets and was targeted eight times in the opener vs. Clemson in a matchup that had a similar game script to what we’re expecting here. If I were a betting man, I’d take the under on whatever Georgia Tech’s team total is this week.
Vanderbilt vs. Northern Illinois
Point-Spread: NIU -2.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: NIU 31 – Vandy 28.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 5% rain / 13 mph winds
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – RB Ray Davis ($6,800) Several different outcomes potentially from Mike Wright this week, so I’ll lean on the lone constant in the Vandy offense in Davis. 58% market share among Vanderbilt running backs. Averaging 5.7 yards per carry to start the year and faces an NIU defense that allowed 5.5 YPC to Eastern Illinois in the opener. The Dores should be able to run on NIU, and have to love Davis’ involvement as a pass-catcher with nine targets in three games – eight of which in the last two weeks.
Fade – WR Jayden McGowan ($7,500) Talented player, will be a stud in the coming years, but simply too expensive in a run-based offense. Working in his favor is the 52% team target share between him and Will Sheppard, so one of those two are really the only candidates to be on the receiving end of a Mike Wright pass attempt.
Bargain Bin – WR Will Sheppard ($5,500) DraftKings algorithm strikes again. Sheppard is third in pricing among Vandy receivers yet leads the team in targets (24) and receiving touchdowns (5). Absolutely in play at that price.
Pivot Play – QB Mike Wright ($7,100) RIP to the bankrolls of those that heavily invested in Wright last weekend. But here’s an opportunity for you to get Wright at a far lower ownership rate with DFS players nervous about rostering him a second straight week. Have to love the comments from HC Clark Lea this week stating that he’s excited for Wright’s opportunity against NIU and that he doesn’t really believe in playing two quarterbacks unless its out of necessity. Projection is right where we want it to be for a mid-tier QB at 27.8 fantasy points. It’s a risk, but might be one worth taking.
Best of the Rest – N/A. The four players listed above account for over 70% of the team’s offensive output this season. Nobody else is worth considering here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Antario Brown ($5,500) HC Thomas Hammock is doing some strange things with the RB rotations this year. Not sure if he’s trying to keep guys fresh, or keep them happy, or just trying to locate the hot hand. But we’re seeing all three running backs getting carries on the same drive. Have to roll with Brown still as the top dog, considering he dominated the touches last week against Tulsa. Vanderbilt is allowing under four yards a carry on the season but are 108th in rush play success rate defensively so maybe more than meets the naked eye with their high-level stats.
Fade – WR Cole Tucker ($8,200) Love Cole Tucker, but there is no way he should be the second-highest priced receiver on a Main Slate. Leads NIU in targets (14) and had a big day vs. Tulsa last week with 7-123-1, but this offense runs the ball 57% of the time. Tucker is only rosterable at this price if he can be a slate-breaker and I don’t believe that’s in his realm of outcomes.
Bargain Bin – RB Mason Blakemore ($3,500) See above on NIU running back rotation talk. Blakemore will get 5-7 carries each week, and is tied with Waylee with three red-zone carries. WR Kacper Rutkiewicz ($3,000) is a name I’ve never heard of in my life until last Saturday when he caught two touchdowns on four targets in the loss to Tulsa. Only played 28% of the offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Rocky Lombardi ($7,700) The advanced stats indicate the NIU offensive line – which returns four starters – is performing up to expectations. You wouldn’t know it on the surface where the Huskies are averaging just 4.4 YPC and struggled against Tulsa last Saturday. Did we over-value Antario Brown? Even with a declining Vegas total, I think this game has massive shootout potential and teams are absolutely loading the box against the Huskies. Lombardi displayed last week he’s very capable of putting up big performances with four total touchdowns vs. Tulsa.
Best of the Rest – RB Harrison Waylee ($5,200) Waylee was limited to just five attempts on only eight snaps in the loss to Tulsa, but haven’t seen any indication that he’s injured. I can’t roster him without confirmation he’s a go, and probably wouldn’t even if we got that news. WR Shemar Thornton ($5,200) is a strong pivot option to Tucker as he’s second on the team in targets (12) and receptions (8).
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU vs. Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -3.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Oreg 30 – BYU 26.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 5% rain / 2 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaren Hall ($6,700) Really the only sure-fire play for BYU right now with an injury-riddled receiving corps and a backfield that averaged just 3.5 YPC against Baylor last Saturday. Hall still managed 26 fantasy points last week against a very good defense despite being down his top two receivers. Against a formidable Georgia passing offense in Week 1, Oregon allowed over 400 yards passing and three touchdowns. And some would argue Hall is better than Stetson Bennett.
Fade – RB Christopher Brooks ($6,400) Not sure what to make of the BYU backfield just yet, so I’m fading Brooks at his price with so many other options available to us at the RB position in this slate. Brooks is not getting a Tyler Allgeier-like workload with just 13 carries in each of the first two matchups and struggled against a Baylor front with just 30-some rushing yards. But the Cougars are also 8th nationally so far in rush play success rate offensively. Just a lot of uncertainty here for me to invest significant capital.
Bargain Bin – WR Chase Roberts ($3,200) We need to uncover the health status of Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney to determine our interest level in Roberts, but after the numbers he put up against Baylor, should he be in play regardless? 8-122-1 on a team-high 12 targets. If those two receivers are out, lock and load here. If Romney is back but not Nacua, I think we still lock and load as Roberts is behind Nacua on the depth chart. Have to plan ahead with a potential option here in the 2:30 window in case both WRs are back. Good news is there are a few which we’ll point out in the Oregon section.
Pivot Play – WR Keanu Hill ($3,500) Hill was an afterthought after the performance of Roberts but was on the field for the entire game and did reel in four receptions on five targets. Absolutely in play if Nacua and Romney sit.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – WR Puka Nacua ($4,400) and Gunner Romney ($5,200) are game-time decisions. There is zero update on their status as of Friday morning.
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – WR Troy Franklin ($4,900) I suppose shame on me for not identifying this coming into the year but the X-position is the most highly-sought at receiver role in this offensive scheme. That would be Franklin, who had a career-best 10 receptions for 84 yards on 10 targets vs. Eastern Washington. No other Oregon player had more than four targets. This is the type of middle-tier WR that gets largely ignored in GPPs so there might be some leverage here vs. the field.
Fade – RB Byron Cardwell ($5,200) Very surprised to see Cardwell listed so highly given he’s the third option right now in the Oregon backfield…for reasons unbeknownst to me. Averaged nearly seven yards a carry with a touchdown last week, but came against Eastern Washington where everyone ate as the Ducks let out a lot of frustration.
Bargain Bin – RB Mar’Keise Irving ($3,000) The Oregon backfield is messy, and I don’t think Irving is technically the starter either, but is tied for the team lead in carries and ranks second among Oregon running backs in snaps played behind Sean Dollars ($4,400). Not advising starting a running back here vs. BYU, but Irving is the play if choosing one.
Pivot Play – QB Bo Nix ($5,500) We’re projected to get four touchdowns out of the Oregon offense this week, and with the running game in a bit of flux, this matchup could come down to Bo Nix and the passing game. Bounce back performance last week with six total touchdowns, but level of competition has to be considered. BYU pass defense has held each of its first two opponents under 175 yards passing with just one passing TD allowed. 21.6 projection this week for Nix with his pricing is deserving of some consideration. The Vegas line has also moved up a few points this week so bettors are expecting a higher scoring contest? Oregon is averaging 39 attempts per game in the first two weeks.
Best of the Rest – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,500) has run a route on 65% of his offensive snaps, and found the end-zone twice last Saturday. Like we’ve said, EVERYONE ate last week against the Eastern Washington defense. WR Chase Cota ($3,000) is third on the team in targets (8) and has played the most offensive snaps of any Oregon skill player. Not bad for a min-priced player.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -27.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Minn 37 – Colo -9.5
Weather: 82 degrees / 52% rain / 2 mph winds
Colorado:
Lol, no.
Minnesota:
Going to treat this game like both of the previous Minnesota matchups because the Gophers should steamroll Colorado just like they did New Mexico State and Western Illinois. Not much difference between those teams and the one Karl Dorrell is driving into the ground in Boulder. RB Mo Ibrahim ($9,400) is deserving of the top spot at RB, averaging 30 FPPG. Even in blowouts, the senior running back is getting 20+ carries which is huge for his outlook moving forward. The Gophers are sixth in the country in rush play percentage (71.3%) meaning RB Trey Potts ($6,400) is also in play here with three rushing touchdowns in two games, averaging 14 carries per. Zero upside to QB Tanner Morgan ($5,900) considering how little Minnesota throws the football. As expected, WR Chris Autman-Bell ($5,800) leads the team with eight receptions on 11 targets. Someone you mix into your multi-entry GPP lineups but avoid for cash.
Kansas vs. Houston
Point-Spread: Hou -9.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Hou 34 – Kans 24.5
Weather: 92 degrees / 90% rain / 9 mph winds
Kansas:
Unfortunately, what looked like a potential shootout opportunity is trending the opposite way as this game will be impacted by weather and the Vegas totals continue to decline. We don’t have a player projected over 15 fantasy points this week for the Jayhawks and nobody is cheap enough to where we can find space in our lineups. WRs are not in play. We’re seeing a split backfield between Devin Neal ($5,400) and Daniel Hinshaw Jr. ($4,900). And we have better projections on cheaper quarterbacks like Bo Nix or Jack Plummer over Jalon Daniels ($6,500).
Houston:
Top Play(s) – WR Nathaniel Dell ($7,900) As long as Houston’s on the slate, Nathaniel Dell will always be the top play for the Cougars. There was some concern as to Dell’s 32% target share from last year declining because of the added weapons on the recruiting trail and transfer portal. It’s declined to just 28% through two games, but still the far-and-away leader with 17 total targets.
Fade – Ta’Zhawn Henry ($4,000) Henry is expected to play this week per Dana Holgorsen, but I think we saw the shift last week which was anticipated by many with Brandon Campbell ($6,600) getting 16 of the team’s 25 rushing attempts vs. Texas Tech. At a level playing field with both 100% healthy, this is the distribution we expect from the backfield moving forward with Henry strictly being a third-down pass catching option.
Bargain Bin – WR Matthew Golden ($4,200) The breakout game is happening at some point, just a matter of when now. The 4-star freshman did find the end-zone against Texas Tech last week and is now second on the team in targets (10). Efficiency numbers aren’t there yet, converting on just 40% of his targets with two drops, but the opportunities are there which is all you can ask from a $4,200 player.
Pivot Play – n/a
Best of the Rest – QB Clayton Tune ($8,200) Can’t pinpoint yet the exact reasoning, but the Houston passing game has not clicked yet. Tune has been ‘ok’, completing just 59% of his passes with four touchdowns, but really struggled last week against Texas Tech where the offense was out of sorts for much of the day. This is too pricy a salary for me to play Tune this week with the declining Vegas total and inclement weather expected.
Injury Notes – Head coach Dana Holgorsen confirmed yesterday at what looked like a Houston bar that both Brandon Campbell and Ta’Zhawn Henry should be ready to roll on Saturday.
