Colorado vs. Colorado State
Point-Spread: Col -7
O/U Total: 59
Implied Score: Col 33 – CSU 26
Weather: 87 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Travis Hunter ($9,500) Love em or hate em, Travis Hunter is the best player in college football. 20 combined targets in two games with consecutive 100-yard performances and 65 fantasy points scored in that span. Seems as though the staff (Deion) and Shedeur Sanders are doing everything possible to feed Hunter targets, potentially to secure a spot in New York for the Heisman despite Colorado’s likely below .500 record at the end of the year.
Fade – RBs. Stating the obvious here. Dallan Hayden is out this week so Charlie Offerdahl, a walk-on, is now the full-time starting running back for a team that is 129th in rush play percentage at 32%. This is an Air Raid offense that also doesn’t feature the RBs in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone sub $5k for the Buffs.
Pivot Play – WR Will Sheppard ($5,100) Noticeable to me the uptick in playing time that the Vanderbilt transfer saw last week against Nebraska, playing 98% of the offensive snaps. Just three targets with all that playing time, but it’s clear the staff is trying to get Sheppard comfortable with his new surroundings. He’ll make more of an impact as the season goes along.
Best of the Rest – QB Shedeur Sanders ($9,600) Pretty simple here. Colorado simply does not choose to, nor cannot run the football. The Buffs are third in the nation in pass play percentage. Colorado State is also bad against the pass in the early going, ranking 117th in pass D success rate. Each of the top four receivers for Colorado played at least 80% of the offensive snaps vs. Colorado without any rotation. We should expect the same each week, so any one of Hunter, Sheppard, WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($7,500) or LaJohntay Wester ($5,700) will be an option. This is the week against a bad Colorado State secondary where stacking two and maybe three (GPP only) is a viable option.
Injury Notes – RB Dallan Hayden ($5,200) Confirmed out this week with injury.
Colorado State:
Top Play(s) – RB Justin Marshall ($4,700) The opening week vs. Texas was an eye-opener for me regarding Marshall. 100 yards on 25+ rushing attempts against a top five team? Not even the yardage, but the fact that Marshall got 25 attempts in a backfield that was expected to be a committee. Marshall’s prop this week opened at 53.5 and is in the 70s as of Friday so folks are expecting a big performance from the sophomore back. Colorado has been better against the run than the pass but rank just 67th in rush D success rate after giving up 150+ against Nebraska last week.
Fade – WR Dylan Goffney ($5,200) I am admitting defeat with Goffney who looks to have been replaced as the team’s starting slot receiver. According to PFF, it was actually WR Jamari Person ($3,500) who got the starting nod over Goffney, finishing with three receptions on four targets. Person also played 75% of the team’s offensive snaps compared to just 15% for Goffney.
Bargain Bin – TE Vince Brown ($3,400) Colorado State doesn’t have a Dallin Holker this season – a tight end to lead the country in targets at the position. Brown as sole control of the TE1 position with transfer Jaxxon Warren suffering a season-ending injury before the year started. Just three targets in two games, but Brown led all CSU pass-catchers in routes run last week vs. N. Colorado.
Pivot Play – WR Tory Horton ($7,100) Colorado State’s WR1 is questionable entering Saturday but call it a hunch that he’s absolutely playing in this contest. The viral video of Horton surfaced this week saying, “we should have murdered them guys…we’re coming for revenge.” He’s not doing interviews like this if he’s not playing. Horton had 16 receptions for 100+ with a touchdown in last year’s matchup with Colorado.
Best of the Rest – QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi ($6,300) Projections don’t like BFN this week as a non-runner, projected to score just 18 fantasy points, despite the excellent matchup against a poor Colorado secondary. You’re stacking the CSU passing game components if rostering Fowler-Nicolosi. Threw for 367 yards and three scores (and three picks) in last year’s matchup. Based on snap counts, Baylor transfer WR Armani Winfield ($4,200) appears to be the WR3 opposite Horton on the outside, playing 64% of the team’s offensive snaps. Although you wouldn’t know it based on the stat sheet, targeted just three times. Not sure if another Colorado State pass-catcher is an option outside of Horton.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on the Tory Horton status.
UTSA vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -35.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Tex 45.5 – UTSA 10
Weather: 97 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
UTSA:
The Roadrunners are coming off the worst loss of the Jeff Traylor era, beaten soundly by the hands of in-state rival Texas State 49-10, and now face a red-hot Texas Longhorns squad that dominated the reigning national champs last Saturday. Quarterbacks are out of the conversation as we could potentially see both Owen McCown and Eddie Lee Marburger. Three-way split at running back facing a defense that held Michigan to just 80 yards on the ground last week is also a no-go. Receiver is where we could potentially see someone in the winning lineup. Sophomore WR Devin McCuin ($5,200) is a budding star in the AAC with 22 targets in the first two weeks. Former JUCO transfer WR Willie McCoy ($4,500) had a team-high nine targets last Saturday and starts in place of the injured De’Corian Clark. TE Patrick Overmyer ($3,000) is listed fourth on the game week depth chart but has arguably been the team’s top tight end with eight targets. Overmyer played the most offensive snaps of any pass-catcher last week.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RBs. All of them. Jaydon Blue, Tre Wisner and Jerrick Gibson are all in play after watching their performances a week ago vs. Michigan. One thing that does stand out in these early weeks. We spoke in the offseason about Steve Sarkisian consistently producing 200-carry running backs over the years. That Michigan game I think showed us this will be one of those years where it does NOT happen. We’ll see all three running backs throughout the contest. The 12 combined targets between Blue and Wisner last week was the most eye-popping statistic.
Fade – WR Johntay Cook ($4,400) These blowout type scenarios open the door for overlooked players to get extended run. But it’s been shocking to see how far Cook has seemingly fallen on the WR pecking order. Just 19 snaps last week against Michigan without a single target.
Bargain Bin – WR Silas Bolden ($3,800) We should remember that Bolden didn’t arrive from Oregon State until the summer, so expectations to begin the year were clearly overstated. But the senior WR is too experienced a player to sit on the sidelines this season with Texas in a playoff race. Expect to see his reps increase with each passing week. Bolden did score a touchdown in the blowout of Colorado State in the opener.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($9,200) Ewers won’t show up in any optimals but has arguably the highest floor of any quarterback on the slate, facing a team that just gave up 300+ to Jordan McCloud last week. Looking back to last season, Texas had six games in which they defeated an opponent by 20 or more points. Ewers accounted for at least three touchdowns in five of those six contests.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Bond ($6,600) We’re anticipating Bond to depart this game mid-way through the third quarter just like he did vs. Colorado State. Still managed 61 yards and a touchdown on seven targets in that contest. Same goes for WR Matthew Golden ($5,500) who caught two touchdowns against the Rams that week. High floor, probably low ceiling plays as Texas will rotate in some of their younger options like Ryan Wingo ($4,000) and DeAndre Moore ($3,700) like they’ve done previously. TE Gunnar Helm ($4,900) has kicked me in the face multiple times already for taking his unders on props. We said Texas won’t have a JaTavion Sanders at tight end, and still probably won’t, but Helm has been rock solid, leading all Texas pass-catchers in snaps played and 10 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Air Force vs. Baylor
Point-Spread: Bayl -16.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: Bayl 29 – AF 12.5
Weather: 95 degrees / 10% rain / 6 mph winds
Air Force:
This could be a rough year for Air Force having to deal with too much offensive turnover, having to replace it’s starting quarterback, fullback, tailback and the entire offensive line. Results thus far have not been good, scoring just 21 points in the opener over Merrimack, and then a lackluster 17-7 loss vs. San Jose State last week where the Falcons had just 197 total yards of offense. Normally, we’d look to the fullback for a source of offense at Air Force like they’ve had in the past with Brad Roberts, but starter Dylan Carson is injured and remains absent from the current depth chart. Sophomore FB Roman Bradley ($3,000) filled in for Carson last week, rushing for just 38 yards on 13 attempts. WR Cade Harris ($4,500) leads the team in targets (9) and was the leading rusher last week with 50 yards on eight carries with a TD. That is the extent of our interest here. Through two games the Falcons rank 123rd and 109th, respectively, in pass and rush success rate against teams that are nowhere near the level of a Baylor.
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Dawson Pendergrass ($4,000) We’ll see a split backfield between Pendergrass and Richard Reese, but we’ll assume that the staff continues to ride the hot hand as the sophomore rushed for 69 yards on just nine attempts against Utah. Pendergrass has been the better of the two in every metric, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, 2.46 yards after contact and a 35.1% breakaway rush rate.
Fade – RB Dom Richardson ($4,100) Richardson has fallen back to third on the team depth chart and might be RB4 headed into the weekend because of the player below that is returning. Four carries in garbage time last week for Richardson against Utah.
Bargain Bin – RB Bryson Washington ($3,000) Longest of longshots here with Washington who is set to make his season debut. The 203-pound redshirt freshman was singled out by Dave Aranda this week, sharing that Washington was one of the team’s top performers in both spring and fall camps. Nobody has seized the Baylor RB1 role to date so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities Washington has an impact.
Pivot Play – QB Dequan Finn ($7,400) Finn was brutal against the Utes last week with less than 100 yards passing, completing just nine throws. The former Toledo QB is also dealing with a chest injury suffered last week, though is expected to start still. Of the two defensive components, Air Force has been worse defending the pass, ranked 72nd in pass D success rate and 84th in EPA per pass play.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Your guess is as good as mine as to which Baylor wide receiver will have the most productive day, and realistically probably not worth your investment to roster one anyways with how spread out the targets are amongst the top four. Ketron Jackson ran the most routes last Saturday among Baylor wideouts, but it could be any one of Jackson, Josh Cameron, Ashtyn Hawkins or Monaray Baldwin. TE Michael Trigg ($3,600) The former 5-star recruit and Ole Miss transfer had a season high six targets vs. Utah while nearly doubling the number of snaps played from Week 1.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UGA -21.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: UGA 33 – UK 11.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 15% rain / 7 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Carson Beck ($9,400) Georgia doesn’t have a go-to DFS option this year outside of Beck, who in all honesty, is not all that appealing at this salary with just a 23-point projection. The future top 10 draft pick had a big day last year against Kentucky with nearly 400 passing yards and four touchdowns. Kentucky’s secondary also hasn’t graded out particularly well despite facing two anemic passing offenses in the first two games, ranking 70th in EPA per pass play and 92nd in pass D success rate. Not where you should rank after facing Tate Rodemaker and LaNorris Sellers.
Fade – RB Branson Robinson ($5,100) Robinson and Nate Frazier’s salaries should be flipped. The former 5-star had his shot Week 1 with Trevor Etienne missing the Clemson game and was outshined by the other 5-star.
Bargain Bin – TE Lawson Luckie ($4,100) Folks spent this offseason debating who would be the TE1 to replace Brock Bowers with potential contenders Ben Yurosek and Oscar Delp. Turned out to be a needless argument as (1) there is no Brock Bowers, and (2) Lawson Luckie looks like the TE1. Luckie’s four targets are the most among UGA tight ends and plays just over 50% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – WR Dominic Lovett ($6,200) Multiple UGA beat writers in the 247Sports game preview of this game singled out Lovett as having a breakout performance this week. WR Arian Smith ($4,800) has the slightest of leads over Lovett with a team-high 11 targets and the most routes run of any UGA wideout. WR Dillon Bell ($5,600) is a not so distant third option, tied with Lovett with 10 targets. You can make a case for any of the three.
Best of the Rest – RB Trevor Etienne ($7,000) From all accounts, it sounds like the staff will really ramp up Etienne’s volume this week after getting his first taste against Tennessee Tech with 78 yards on five attempts. Throw stats out the window usually when Georgia is involved, but the Kentucky run D has been very good thus far, allowing just 8.5 FPPG to opposing running backs.
Injury Notes – RB Roderick Robinson II ($5,700) Doubtful with an ankle injury. He’s week to week according to Kirby Smart.
Kentucky:
I’ll let the prop market tell the story for Kentucky on this slate. QB Brock Vandagriff’s opening line was 130.5 passing yards and has been bet down in the 120s now. RB Demie Sumo has a respectable 5.2 YPC average filling in for the injured Chip Trayanum, but his rushing prop is listed at 46.5 going against this Georgia front. Three wide receivers are listed with no line higher than 26.5 yards. This should tell you all you need to know.
Central Florida vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -1.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: TCU 32 – UCF 30.5
Weather: 95 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($8,500) Harvey has been dominant to start 2024 with back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances, and hitting the century mark this week would give his five straight games of 100 or more yards, dating back to last season. TCU faced two teams with anemic rushing offenses in the first two games, so we don’t have any data to conclude how they’ll perform against this potent running game.
Fade – RB Peny Boone ($7,200) On that same note, Boone should’ve stayed at Toledo or transferred to a different destination because his arrival has had no impact whatsoever on RJ Harvey’s fantasy output. To his credit, Boone is averaging nearly eight yards per attempt with rushing TDs in each of the first two games but is running third behind Harvey and Myles Montgomery.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman Jr. ($3,900) Pittman has just two targets in each of the first two weeks, but played a season-high 91% of snaps last week against Sam Houston State. Pittman had a strong rookie season as a freshman with 215 yards on 25 targets.
Pivot Play – QB KJ Jefferson ($8,900) I thought this was going to look better than it has with Jefferson being paired with Gus Malzahn. Not that Jefferson would be Cam Newton or anything, but dual-threats like Jefferson have thrived under the UCF head coach in fantasy. Instead, UCF is hiding Jefferson and leaning heavily on Harvey and this running game. The Arkansas transfer did look more comfortable last week, completing 12 of 15 passes, but was kept out of the end-zone.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Hudson ($7,700) and WR Xavier Townsend ($6,400) UCF lacks a competent WR3 currently so not surprising to see Hudson and Townsend at the top of the leaderboard with 17 combined targets between them. Next closest wideout has three targets. Would strongly lean one of the two if looking to have a UCF receiver in the lineup. Auburn transfer Ja’Varrius Johnson started ahead of Trent Whittemore vs. Sam Houston State, but neither player has been effective.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) – WR Savion Williams ($6,300) Far and away the team’s top option at wide receiver with 22 targets in two games. Every TCU wide receiver got into the action last week against an FCS opponent so it’s important for us to reference how the rotations went that first game vs. Stanford. And Williams was out there 86% of the time with the second most routes run.
Fade – RB Trey Sanders ($4,900) Consider this automatic anytime TCU is on the slate until DK lowers Sanders’ price tag. Sanders looks to have fallen to at least RB3 at this point behind Dominique Johnson. Also, Cam Cook is HIM.
Bargain Bin – TE / WR Jack Bech ($4,600) We stated above the WR rotations in Week 1 vs. Stanford would be our reference point for this UCF matchup. The top three receivers of Williams, Bech and WR John Paul Richardson ($5,700) dominated that contest with 33 of the 41 targets, with each playing over 85% of the snaps with little rotation. We’re going to assume this week looks very similar.
Pivot Play – QB Josh Hoover ($9,100) Hoover has the highest upside of any quarterback on the slate, with the potential of this game becoming a shootout. The sophomore QB has now scored 28 or more fantasy points in six of his last eight games played dating back to last season. UCF’s pass defense has been more susceptible in the early going, ranked 61st in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Cam Cook ($5,800) Too cheap for a running back that will dominate the touches in the TCU backfield. Cook has four rushing touchdowns in the first two games and his 33 carries are 25 more than the next closest running back on the team. Not bad for just a redshirt freshman. Outside of Cook, Hoover and the Top 3 wideouts, we’re not looking at anyone else from the TCU side.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana vs. UCLA
Point-Spread: IU -3
O/U Total: 46
Implied Score: IU 24.5 – UCLA 21.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($6,800) Sarratt gets the slight nod over WR Omar Cooper Jr. ($5,900) because of the Donaven McCulley factor. If, and that’s a big if, McCulley did impact one of the two, it would be Cooper. 15 receptions and over 300 receiving yards combined between the two. Remember last year with James Madison, this system was able to support two high-end fantasy receivers with Sarratt and Reggie Brown.
Fade – WR Donaven McCulley ($4,700) Report this week that McCulley will be available for the first time this season. Will be interesting to see how this impacts the WR rotations, but I’d imagine Indiana will break in McCulley slowly in his first game back. In all honesty, no need to play McCulley that much given how Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. have performed.
Bargain Bin – TE Zach Horton ($4,300) The James Madison transfer followed the coaching staff to Bloomington and is playing 80% of the offensive snaps in each of the first two games. In Week 1, Horton was targeted four times with a touchdown.
Pivot Play – WR Myles Price ($5,600) Sarratt and Cooper get the headlines, but Price has been solid in the slot with eight receptions on 10 targets. That trio of receivers are dominating the target share – all over 20% – with no other wideout really involved until garbage time. Price will have minimal ownership most likely.
Best of the Rest – QB Kurtis Rourke ($8,600) We have just one data point as to how the UCLA pass defense fares against an opponent, limiting Hawaii to just 227 passing yards and one TD in the opener. Rourke has played well through two games, averaging 224 YPG with three touchdowns and zero turnovers, but hasn’t utilized his legs much and this is expected to be a lower scoring game. RB Ty Son Lawton ($6,000) is pacing the backfield with three rushing TDs, but this is a committee approach with Justice Ellison and Elijah Green all involved.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($4,700) or WR Rico Flores Jr. ($5,000) With the struggles running the football, expect UCLA to chuck it 30+ times on Saturday. JMS led the Bruins with eight targets vs. Hawaii, while the Notre Dame transfer Flores Jr. surpassed 100 yards with a touchdown. Having one of these two in your lineup is a solid play given the likely game script of UCLA throwing more.
Fade – RB TJ Harden ($6,500) Eight carries for eight yards against Hawaii. Yes, there will be improvement from week to week, but I count at least six running back options better than Harden this week. Indiana’s strength on defense is its front seven.
Bargain Bin – TE Moliki Matavao ($3,400) Strong opening game for Matavao with three receptions on five targets, playing 76% of the team’s offensive snaps. And he wasn’t just a blocker obviously, running a route on 67% of those snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Ethan Garbers ($7,000) Week 1 was an adventure for Garbers, completing just 50% of his throws for 272 yards and multiple interceptions. But did play better in the second half to lead to the comeback victory. The UCLA offensive line is in shambles with multiple new starters and a few injuries at offensive tackle. Bad for the run game mostly, which should lead to healthy volume throwing the ball from Garbers at the very least.
Best of the Rest – WR Titus Mokiao-Atimalala ($4,000) TMS played the most offensive snaps in Week 1 of any UCLA offensive player not named Ethan Garbers. WR Logan Loya ($4,200), the team’s leading target getter a year ago, was injured vs. Hawaii, playing just 41% of the snaps. Will be interesting to see if he’s more incorporated in the offense after a week off. If he does, it would be Mokia-Atimalala that is most impacted as he played 57% of his snaps in the slot.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland vs. Virginia
Point-Spread: MD -2.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: MD 29.5 – UVA 27
Weather: 73 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Colandrea ($8,800) What a start for the sophomore QB who was seemingly in a quarterback competition all through fall camp. Staff chose correctly as Colandrea has hit 29 fantasy points in each of the first two games. We also love the utilization on the ground to support this anemic rushing attack with double digit carries in both weeks. Stats show Maryland doesn’t do anything particularly well defensively, defending the run or the pass.
Fade – RB Kobe Pace ($5,200) The quick honeymoon is over for Kobe Pace it appears. After coming out of the gates fast vs. Richmond with 93 yards and a touchdown, it seems as though Pace has already been relegated to pass-catching duties, as he only had five carries vs. Wake Forest. Pace was a factor in the passing game with four receptions on five targets, but tough to bank on that production week in, week out. Which leads me to…
Bargain Bin – RB Xavier Brown ($3,400) They weren’t very successful runs, but Brown could potentially be the team’s RB1 moving forward in the run game. 35 yards on nine attempts in a competitive game shows something about the coaches impressions of the backfield. UVA is just 103rd in EPA per rush play, so we’re not going out of our way to have a Virginia running back in our lineups, but Brown is cheap and could be the starter.
Pivot Play – WR Trell Harris ($6,000) Remember the dynamic at receiver last year with Malik Washington and WR Malachi Fields ($8,300) dominating the target share for UVA? Same thing is occurring in 2024, though with Fields as the top option and Kent State transfer Trell Harris as the WR2. Against Wake Forest, the duo had 24 of the 30 targets that went to UVA receivers. Playing either or both together in a lineup is a viable strategy.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Tyree ($4,500) Tyree bounced back from a dismal Week 1 performance, converting on all four of his targets for minimal yardage. He’s clearly fallen to at least WR3 in this offense which doesn’t hold much value. TE Tyler Neville ($4,000) caught two touchdown passes against Wake Forest and is tied for third on the team with seven targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WR Tai Felton ($6,500) Tell me if you had this on your CFF Bingo Card – Tai Felton would lead the country in receiving yards after two games. 24 targets in two weeks with no signs of slowing down.
Fade – n/a. Everyone is priced appropriately on the MD side and the core components are all options.
Bargain Bin – TE Dylan Wade ($3,600) Maryland has had a tight end hit 50 targets in a season in each of the last three seasons. Not sure that streak continues in 2024, but Wade appears to have solidified his spot as the TE1 with four receptions and a touchdown vs. MSU last week. Wade’s playing time jumped from 48% to 72% in Week 2.
Pivot Play – WR Kaden Prather ($4,400) Prather might’ve had 100 yards receiving last week, but just missed on a couple of throws from Billy Edwards. Still, the senior receiver has been targeted six times in each of the first two games and will be the beneficiary when eventually defenses shade over to double Felton. No other receiver has more than five targets on the team so passes are going to either Felton or Prather.
Best of the Rest – QB Billy Edwards ($7,800) Did Maryland upgrade at the quarterback position by Taulia Tagovailoa graduating? Edwards is completing over 70% of his passes with four touchdowns, and while the competition level hasn’t been overly strong, that includes to FBS teams in UConn and Michigan State. This could be a high scoring affair with how UVA is playing offensively. RB Roman Hemby’s ($5,800) volume is down, sharing carries with RB Nolan Ray ($4,300) but this is a bad Virginia run defense. 110th in rush D success rate after allowing a big rushing performance last week to Wake’s Demond Claiborne. I think both RBs could be options.
Injury Notes – n/a
