Texas Tech vs. NC State
Point-Spread: NC St -10.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: NC St 33 – Texas Tech 22.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Jerand Bradley ($4,000) I missed on Bradley’s prop overs last week but it wasn’t due to lack of volume. Six receptions on a team-high 13 targets in the win over Houston. Think the Cougars did an excellent job, for the most part, executing their game plan of keeping everything in front of them and making the passing game methodically operate down the field. It’s noticeable as the 6-foot-5 Bradley’s yards per route run dropped from 6.35 in Week 1 to just 0.82 in Week 2.
Fade – RB SaRodorick Thompson ($5,000) After splitting carries in Week 1, we really saw some separation between Thompson and Tahj Brooks against Houston where the latter nearly doubled Thompson in snap counts and out-carried him 18-5. For a team that is No. 1 in the country in neutral game pass rate, you’re really only allowed to consider one running back here and that’s Brooks.
Bargain Bin – WR Loic Fouonji ($4,700) Interesting to me that they priced Bradley above Fouonji this week as the latter was mostly a non-factor against Houston, targeted just six times (not a lot considering Tech threw it 54 times). I would not forget about him here, and really could be considered a pivot option as well. Played 81 of 106 offensive snaps last week, second most of the wide receivers behind Bradley. Targets weren’t there, but he’s on the field a good bit.
Pivot Play – RB Tahj Brooks ($5,600) See above on SaRodrick Thompson discussion. Brooks is our second-highest projected Texas Tech player this week after rushing for 78 yards and a score vs. Houston. Was also a frequent option in the passing game, catching all five of his targets. Now has four rushing touchdowns in the first two games.
Best of the Rest – WR Nehemiah Martinez ($4,300) I would say buyer beware here if you plan on rostering Martinez who had a breakout game last week with 76 yards on five receptions. Maybe my perspective is off, but I believe much of his production came when Myles Price was in the locker room nursing an injury. My understanding is he is the third option in the slot behind Price and Xavier White ($3,700). I will not be playing QB Donovan Smith ($7,700) this week personally and hope that decision doesn’t come back to bite me. Night game on the road at a sold out stadium that will be a black out? NC State is 6th in the country through two weeks in defensive pass play success rate. Smith will throw it around a bunch, but last week’s struggles have me tentative about this matchup. I’ll be underweight.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB Devin Leary ($7,000) The Tech defense has been far better than most anticipated through two games, giving Clayton Tune and the Houston passing game all sorts of fits. Advanced data would suggest though that they’re a bit overrated than the high-level numbers indicate, ranking 112th in pass play success rate. After a sub-par performance against East Carolina in Week 1, Leary was sharp in the win over an FCS opponent, throwing for 238 yards with six total touchdowns. As proven last year, Leary has one of the highest floors of any quarterback in the country.
Fade – RB Jordan Houston ($5,700) If it hasn’t happened already, Jordan Houston will lose his starting job at some point this season. Scored double-digit fantasy points in both games this season, but there’s a more talented option in the NC State backfield which we’ll hit on in a bit. Not to mention Texas Tech is No. 1 in the Big 12 in rush defense through two weeks.
Bargain Bin – RB Demie Sumo ($4,400) Regardless of the starter, NC State has typically preferred to rotate their backs, with the RB1 averaging just 11.8 carries per game over the last four seasons. So we’re not advocating being overweight on a Wolfpack running back. But Sumo has been dynamite through two games, averaging more than 75 yards per game despite only getting eight total touches in Week 2. Averaging 7.1 yards per carry, and likely takes the starting job from Houston at some point this year.
Pivot Play – WRs. Lumping them into one because it’s all across the board through two games. No receiver has more than 15% target share, and 11 different NC State wideouts have caught a pass. Best indication of where to put our focus is the Week 1 nailbiter over East Carolina where Devin Carter ($6,000), Thayer Thomas ($5,800) and Keyone Lesane ($3,500) all saw 59% or more of the offensive snaps. Those three are your starters.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Toledo vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -31.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: OSU 47 – Toledo 15.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Toledo:
Lowest implied total on the slate. Eliminate all of the skill position players from your potential queue. We’ll be fading QB Dequan Finn ($5,100) but does have a 19.5-point projection at a very low salary. Were this last year’s Ohio State defense we may have considered. The Buckeyes are much improved defensively under Jim Knowles, allowing just 22 points in two games. Much like Tyler Buchner in Week 1, Finn is a dangerous dual-threat QB but I’d imagine the Buckeyes come into Saturday night with a similar game plan. Buchner rushed for just 18 yards on 11 attempts.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,500) Even if JSN is back in the lineup, we saw last year how Ohio State was able to support three elite wide receivers so that doesn’t back me off from Harrison Jr. one bit. Leads Ohio State in targets (20) and caught three touchdowns vs. Arkansas State. Price is just two low for an elite WR option on the slate.
Fade – RB Miyan Williams ($6,400) Just don’t see the upside here for a $6,400 player. Similar blowout situation last week and Williams went for just 46 yards on eight carries. I mean what’s the ceiling numbers for Williams here, barring Henderson is healthy for the full contest? 75 yards and a TD? Doesn’t cut it at that price. To be fair to Williams, he did see 27 of 48 offensive snaps last week – more than TreVeyon in fact.
Bargain Bin – WR Xavier Johnson ($3,000) Fully dependent on the availability of JSN. If our WR1 in CFF is back, Johnson is a no-go. Played 77% of the offensive snaps vs. Arkansas State and was targeted four times.
Pivot Play – High-priced stars. Worth it to roster QB C.J. Stroud ($9,500) or RB TreVeyon Henderson ($8,900) with their inflated salaries? The lean for me here is towards Stroud who potentially has his full compliment of weapons at his disposal. Toledo’s No. 1 pass defense ranking means absolutely nothing when playing LIU and UMass in the first two games. I’ll be underweight on Henderson in another blowout situation as Miyan Williams has gotten a ton of run in the first two weeks, out-snapping Henderson vs. Arkansas State.
Best of the Rest – WR Emeka Egbuka ($5,900) As steady as they come the first two games with 13 receptions on 19 targets, catching a touchdown in both contests. Value doesn’t diminish for me if JSN returns.
Injury Notes – WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,200) and Julian Fleming ($3,800) are both questionable/probable for Saturday. Don’t have any answers from insiders, but reading beat writers talk about what they expect here, it’s a mixed bag of opinions. Some think they need to get back in the rotation and acclimated before conference play begins. The top beat writer in the mailbag article is of the opinion that we do not see either player Saturday. So, who knows? I play lineups relatively safe so I’ll be fading both players here, even in GPP.
South Florida vs. Florida
Point-Spread: FL -24.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: FL 42.5 – USF 18
Weather: 77 degrees / 76% rain / 5 mph winds
South Florida:
Second-lowest implied total of the slate and no player projected to score more than 15 fantasy points. WR Xavier Weaver ($5,500) is the lone option worthy of consideration here as he’s simply dominating the team target share at 39%, with no other USF player in double digits.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Richardson ($8,200) Redemption week. Compare this to Vanderbilt QB Mike Wright. Highest owned QB on the main slate in Week 2, flames out with a disastrous performance, yet is set for a bounce-back week against a bottom-tier defense. I’ll be attacking the ownership regression this week for Richardson who gets a tremendous matchup vs. USF who ranks 109th in scoring defense. The Bulls were throttled in the opener, giving up a 50-burger to BYU and allowing nearly 600 yards of total offense.
Fade – RB Nay’quan Wright ($5,300) Will still get a chunk of snaps, because that’s how Napier prefers to utilize his RB rotations as we saw at Louisiana, but it is perfectly clear he is the third best running back on the roster behind Montrel Johnson and stud freshman Trevor Etienne. Averaged under four yards a carry in both games to start the year.
Bargain Bin – RB Trevor Etienne ($3,900) 42 projected points this week for Florida and I’d still take the over on Florida’s team total against this lackluster USF defense. Etienne is a distant third in offensive snaps behind the two veterans, but led the Gators in carries vs. Kentucky, averaging over five yards a carry. Can just tell when a FR looks the part, and Etienne seems to have trust with the coaching staff as he’s seen the field against two top-tier opponents.
Pivot Play – Any Florida WR. It’s definitely not as bad as it was when Billy Napier was at Louisiana, where we had like six receivers between 13-18% target share. But it remains a guessing game as to who will be the top target in a given week. The top three of Xzavier Henderson ($6,900), Ricky Pearsall ($4,800) and Justin Shorter ($5,500) are accounting for 65% of the target share, so there is some separation between the remaining pass-catching options. But we don’t view either three as viable options for a team that runs the ball 54% of the time.
Best of the Rest – RB Montrell Johnson ($6,800) Will go under-owned in GPPs with the surplus of options around Johnson’s price point that are projected to score substantially more points. The former Sun Belt freshman of the year has looked the part in his transfer to the SEC, leading the Gators in carries and is averaging north of seven yards per attempt.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan State vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UW -3.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UW 30 – MSU 26.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – RB Jalen Berger ($5,900) Kenneth Walker who? Ok, neither Jalen Berger or Jarek Broussard are the former Doak Walker award winner, but the Michigan State rush offense hasn’t lost a step, averaging 5.71 yards as a team and 228.5 yards per game vs. Western Michigan and Akron. Berger isn’t priced like a running back that hit the century mark against both opponents with four rushing touchdowns. This is also not the Washington defenses of old under Jimmy Lake that we need to fade.
Fade – WR Tre Mosley ($6,200) I suppose it could be a pivot opportunity because Mosley has found the end-zone in each of the first two weeks and saw the most offensive snaps among receivers against Akron. That said, just four targets combined on the season. Reliable option for the MSU passing game, but it appears he’s fallen behind a more talented player in Keon Coleman in the pecking order.
Bargain Bin – WR Germie Bernard ($3,500) The true freshman would likely move into the starting lineup should Jayden Reed miss the contest, and is already being considered the “next man up” for 2023 when Reed moves onto the NFL. Had a beautiful 50-yard touchdown receptions in Week 1, and saw his snap counts increase four-fold against Akron.
Pivot Play – QB Payton Thorne ($6,600) My assumption is we’ll see very low ownership for Thorne on Saturday night, as the Spartans has been a run-first offense against its first two opponents, running the ball 58% of the time. That just means Washington will load the box and should see some opportunities for the passing game, correct? Doesn’t have the same weapons as last year, but this is the same quarterback that scored 28 or more fantasy points seven times last season.
Best of the Rest – RB Jarek Broussard ($4,200) Berger is the lead dog, but Broussard is an integral part of the rush offense, garnering 31% of the backfield market share. Nobody else to consider from MSU aside from the names already listed.
Injury Notes – WR Jayden Reed ($7,000) Reed played 2/3s of the game last week against Akron but remains questionable heading into Saturday night from a few reports I’ve read.
Washington:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($6,300) Not sure I’m a full believer yet considering the competition Washington has faced in two games, but cannot deny the production from Penix Jr. Familiarity with HC Kalen DeBoer since the days at Indiana has clearly reduced the transition time as the senior QB has thrown for 682 yards with six passing touchdowns in two games, completing nearly 70% of his passes. Oh yea, and Penix has SHREDDED Michigan State in his prior meetings, completing 73% of his passes with six total touchdowns, averaging 350 yards per contest.
Fade – WR Giles Jackson ($3,000) Jackson was tied for the team lead in targets last week with six, but that was entirely due to Rome Odunze not playing in the game. Fade the min-priced player.
Bargain Bin – WR Ja’Lynn Polk ($3,200) Washington has a solidified top three at receiver that have all played over 50% of the offensive snaps. Polk is the WR3 of the trio, but is still tied for second on the team in targets (10) and an integral part of the offense. I’ll place him in one or two GPP lineups because he should be $1K more based on how much Polk’s on the field.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen McMillan ($6,800) Odunze is the cheaper option and was targeted more in the opener vs. Kent State when it was a level playing field and both were healthy. McMillan was plenty productive, though, with five receptions on eight targets, finding the end-zone twice. McMillan’s 3.82 yards per route run is highest on the team among players with at least three targets.
Best of the Rest – RB Cam Davis ($4,800) I’ll be fading the entire Washington backfield as the Huskies’ offensive line is very green on starting experience and expect MSU to have the edge in the trenches on both sides. But surprising to see Davis just $100 less than starter Wayne Taulapapa ($4,900). Makes some sense given Davis averaged seven yards a carry with two touchdowns last week, but in the opener vs. Kent State, the Huskies mostly leaned on the senior.
Injury Notes – WR Rome Odunze ($5,000) Kalen DeBoer confirmed this week that Odunze will be good to go Saturday night. There’s a debate as to who the top WR is for Washington between Odunze or McMillan, but there’s a strong likelihood both are productive vs. the Spartans.
Pittsburgh vs. Western Michigan
Point-Spread: Pitt -10.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Pitt 29 – WMU 18.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – RB Israel Abanikanda ($5,800) Pressure was on Abanikanda to perform last week as his starting job was slipping away, and the junior running back rebounded with a big performance, rushing for 154 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. If you want to make the argument against Abanikanda – 76 of those yards came on just one play. On the other 24 carries, he averaged just 3.2 YPC. So not a slam dunk, but a favorable matchup here with WMU whose allowed over five yards a carry against both MSU and Ball State. Rodney Hammond plays and we pivot, though.
Fade – QBs. If I cared enough, I could probably dig up dirt to see who would be the starting quarterback here on Saturday. But I don’t, with Kedon Slovis ($6,100) projected to score just 15 fantasy points.
Bargain Bin – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($3,900) Good to see my Gavin Bartholomew CFF shares aren’t completely dust. The sophomore tight end had a bounce back performance with five receptions on five targets for 84 yards and a score. Bartholomew has played 74% of the team’s offensive snaps, but has only run a receiving route on 51% of those snaps…just to paint you the entire picture.
Pivot Play – WR Jared Wayne ($5,200) Zero interest in the quarterbacks, but we do like the Pitt receivers this week with Konata Mumpfield ($6,400) and Wayne getting 55% of the team’s total target share. Wayne probably should be priced above Mumpfield, though, given he’s averaging 17.1 YPC and has played the second most offensive snaps on the entire team.
Best of the Rest – WR Jerrod Means ($4,400) Second on the team in targets (13), playing around 49% of the offensive snaps. There really is no other wide receiver that gets involved in the passing game here beyond the three listed above and Bartholomew.
Injury Notes – Narduzzi keeps injury information very close to the vest. QB situation is unknown. We’ll find out Saturday afternoon. If Rodney Hammond ($6,300) didn’t play last week in a crucial matchup with the Vols, likely a strong chance he doesn’t suit up this week either. Particularly not with the way Abanikanda ran the ball last week.
Western Michigan:
Top Play(s) – WR Corey Crooms ($4,600) Tempted to say I’ll be overweight on Crooms despite his name not popping in any optimal lineups. Why? Who else does Western Michigan have that can reliably catch the football? 39% target share after racking up 10 receptions on 18 targets last week against Ball State. If you’re not starting him this week, at least file it away for when we get to MACtion because Crooms is going to eat this year.
Fade – The rest of the Western Michigan options. Nobody is absurdly priced to where you couldn’t realistically fit someone in, but the implied team total is low, and Pittsburgh matches up well with WMU strengths on the ground. After a slip up in the opener, we saw the real Pat Narduzzi run defense against Tennessee, limiting the Vols to just 2.6 YPC. Maybe WR Jehlani Galloway ($4,000) who looks to be asserting himself as the WR2 next to Crooms with 13 targets in two games.
SMU vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -2.5
O/U Total: 72.5
Implied Score: MD 37.5 – SMU 35
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – QB Tanner Mordecai ($8,000) This will be a popular game stack with the total sitting at 72.5. These types of games typically flamed out last year for us, so I’m tentative here to go all-in, but there are plenty of options to choose from. Mordecai projects well at 25.5 fantasy points this week and has had a good start to the year with 634 yards passing in two games with seven touchdowns and a 64% completion rate. Not exactly a stellar performance from the Maryland secondary last week, allowing 292 yards (on 52 attempts) and three touchdowns in the air.
Fade – SMU backfield. I want no part of it, especially considering we get the return (possibly) of Camar Wheaton ($3,000) as the staff ramps him up for the crucial conference portion of the schedule. Tre Siggers ($5,800), TJ McDaniel ($4,000) and Velton Gardner ($3,600) all sharing reps – and all being mediocre talents as well. I’ll risk it and just bypass this entire group.
Bargain Bin – WR Moochie Dixon ($3,200) Searching for Kelvontay on DraftKings, only to find out this tremendous first name of Moochie Dixon. Second on the team in targets with 10, though has played just 28% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Kerley ($5,600) I’ll be honest, this depth chart is really messy beyond Tanner Mordecai and Rashee Rice this year. Not what we’re used to with the Mustangs. I do believe that Kerley is the surest bet right now to be the SMU WR2 when all is said and done and should see very low ownership at his pricing if you’re looking to game stack. Fourth on the team in total routes run, though averaging just 2.5 targets per game so far.
Best of the Rest – WR Rashee Rice ($8,400) Chose Mordecai as the top play but really a 1A-1B situation with Rice as the clear-cut alpha in the SMU wide receiver room. 39% of the team target share, while also leading the team with 6.21 yards per route run and a 13.6 aDOT.
Injury Notes – WR Jake Bailey ($6,100) has been practicing all week but remains a game-time decision according to Rhett Lashlee. We don’t even know that he’s the WR2, so we’ll easily fade this week.
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($8,500) No. 10 passing offense in the country through two weeks, with Tagovailoa completing close to 80% of his passes for 681 yards and four touchdowns. Maryland is No. 2 in the country in yards per play at 8.6, sitting just behind USC. With 4-5 high-end receivers for Maryland, I’d rather just roster the guy getting those talented wideouts the football and not play a guessing game.
Fade – WR Dontay Demus ($6,000) Unfortunate because I do believe Demus is the most talented WR on the team, but the production hasn’t been there. Third among Maryland WRs in offensive snaps played and second in routes run but has just eight targets in two games. The surplus of Maryland pass-catchers will have me fading Demus.
Bargain Bin – WR Jacob Copeland ($4,000) Snap counts go down, yet the targets went up. The Florida transfer converted on all four of his targets last week while finding the end-zone twice against Charlotte. May not see the volume that the other starting receivers get but is arguably the most explosive of the bunch. Leads the Terps with a 20.4 aDOT and 4.83 yards per route run.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($6,100) Remember Week 1 when everyone was on Tagovailoa and game-stacking the Maryland passing attack. And remember when we burned through our wallets when Roman Hemby was the centerpiece of the Terps offense with 114 yards and two scores. You’re going to see it again this week. Hemby did come back down to earth against Charlotte, seeing single digit carries again with just 29 yards on nine attempts.
Best of the Rest – WR Rakim Jarrett ($7,200) Probably sees lower ownership numbers because of his salary and the cheaper Maryland options on the board, but does lead the team in targets and routes run. Numbers would be better if he didn’t already have three drops. Dare I say WR Jeshaun Jones ($4,900) is the most overlooked player on the team? Second in targets, tied for team lead in touchdowns, leads team in receptions, third in receiving routes run among wideouts.
Injury Notes – n/a
UTSA vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Texas -12.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Texas 35 – UTSA 22.5
Weather: 90 degrees / 19% rain / 11 mph winds
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – QB Frank Harris ($5,700) Pricing too good to be true here? The Vegas total has fallen this week on both sides, which signals it’s not just the QB injuries for the Longhorns lowering it. Bettors impressed with Texas’ showing last week against the Alabama offense? The other reason for concern here is multiple injuries along the UTSA offensive front that has already allowed Harris to be sacked seven times already. Still, tough to ignore a quarterback at $5,700 that is sixth in the country in passing. My biggest hesitation here is that Texas’ defensive front dominates the game and Harris doesn’t reach value with significant ownership.
Fade – RBs. If UTSA is winning this game, it’ll be done via the pass, not the run. The Roadrunners are 70th in rush play success rate through two games with both Brenden Brady ($6,000) and Trelon Smith ($4,900) averaging under four yards per attempt.
Bargain Bin – WR DeCorian Clark ($4,800) How many WR1s around the country have been targeted 11 times in each of the first two games and have three or more receiving touchdowns? Answer…not many. Now consider Clark is the WR3 on his own damn team.
Pivot Play – WR Zakhari Franklin ($6,300) and Joshua Cephus ($5,700) are both obviously in play after what they’ve done the first two games, both topping 100 yards receiving each week. The top three receivers on UTSA combine now for 84% of the team’s target share. It is ZERO secret where the ball is going when Frank Harris drops back to pass. FWIW – Texas could also be without starting cornerback D’Shawn Jamison this week so the Longhorns might be shorthanded in the secondary.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Bijan Robinson ($6,500) Will see 70% ownership in the Night Slate primary GPP. Tells you what you need to know.
Fade – WR Jordan Whittington ($6,600) If you’re spending $6,600 on a receiver, you’re hoping for a GPP winner. Whittington is NOT that. Did have a season-high nine targets vs. Alabama, but everything was close to the LOS at 1.64 yards per route run. I’d rather take a chance on pure talent in WR Xavier Worthy ($7,300) than a guy whose projection maxes out at like 15 points.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,300) Sanders was an easy fade last week as a popular min priced dart throw coming off a huge performance in Week 1. I think the lower ownership number this week put him in play here. Was still targeted five times vs. Alabama last week, playing the most offensive snaps of any skill player for Texas.
Pivot Play – Not starting Bijan Robinson against the field. Crazy yes, and I won’t have the kahunas to do it. But Bijan Robinson is less than 100% entering this matchup. I do think it will be a competitive game, that Texas undoubtedly must win, so we will see Bijan. But will it be his typical workload. We’ll monitor more leading up to game time.
Best of the Rest – Interesting to me that the top Texas beat writer at 247 did mention Bijan not being 100% and that RB Roschon Johnson ($5,000) and RB Keilan Robinson ($4,000) can provide enough juice to boost the running game. Sounds like Johnson might also be the emergency backup quarterback behind Card should things go haywire with his ankle sprain. Food for thought.
Injury Notes – QB Hudson Card ($6,800) Reported late Friday night by the Texas beat writers that, barring any last second setbacks, that it will be Card getting the nod this week despite a high-ankle sprain.
Miami vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -6.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: A&M 25.5 – Miami 19
Weather: 82 degrees / 10% rain / 7 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($5,800) Miami is going to have to throw to win this game, and they have the significant edge at quarterback in the matchup. TVD has been just ‘ok’ through two games, completing 74 % of his passes with three touchdowns, and now will be down his top target in this game. I don’t view it as a crippling loss with Restrepo out, so that doesn’t change my opinion much here. Not a quarterback I’ll be investing in though, with such a low team total.
Fade – RB Henry Parrish ($5,500) Not a steep price to pay for a running back that has 50% of the team’s volume share and four rushing touchdowns. But we’re going to see more Jaylan Knighton this week, and the Miami offensive line has not been good analytically, ranking 127th in Line Yards and 89th in rush play success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Michael Redding ($3,900) Will be one of the top four options in the passing game tonight, and is second on the team in receiving yards (76). Arguably the top contested catch receiver on the team, Redding was targeted five times vs. Southern Miss.
Pivot Play – WR Keyshawn Smith ($4,600) Smith doesn’t sit highly in our projections at just 8.6, but we’ve seen him be a productive player in the past and is No. 1 on offensive snaps played among Miami receivers. He gets a boost with Restrepo out. Texas A&M is sixth in the country so far in pass defense, so we don’t have to jam anyone in from the Miami side here.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaylan Knighton ($4,500) Expect Parrish to still be the RB1 here, but Knighton is the type of versatile piece that should be featured in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair. HC Mario Cristobal said Knighton is “full-go.”
Injury Notes – WR Xavier Restrepo ($5,100) is out indefinitely with a foot injury.
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Devon Achane ($6,200) Projections still like Achane this week despite the offensive line for A&M not performing up to standards thus far in the year. 118th in stuff rate and 69th in line yards. Miami limited a good Southern Miss ground attack to just 24 yards on 23 carries. But you’re not breaking the bank here for a top-tier running back at $6,200.
Fade – WRs outside of Ainias Smith and Evan Stewart ($3,800) 58% target share between the top two options in the Aggie passing attack. Freshman WR Yulkeith Brown ($3,000), after scoring a touchdown in the opener, saw his snap counts cut in half in a competitive game. I trust two A&M pass-catchers only in this game.
Bargain Bin – WR Evan Stewart ($3,800) Maybe the best bang for your buck play on the entire slate. If you think Max Johnson upgrades the A&M passing game – can’t get much worse – than Stewart is likely to be a factor as he leads the team in targets (17) and tied for first in routes run with Ainias Smith ($5,000).
Pivot Play – WR Ainias Smith ($5,000) See above on team target share notes.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Johnson ($4,500) I won’t be playing Johnson this week, but he’ll be an upgrade over Haynes King, and this is a quarterback with plenty of starting experience in big games. You could do a hell of a lot worst at $4,500 for someone that 27 passing touchdowns a year ago. Miami has struggled to defend the pass in its first two matchups against two less-than-inspiring opponents in Bethune Cookman and Southern Miss, where a first-time starter for USM completed 60% of his passes for 200+ yards and a touchdown. And now I’m talking myself into playing Johnson as we speak.
Injury Notes – n/a
