Arizona State vs. Texas State
Point-Spread: ASU -1.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: ASU 30 – Tex St. 28.5
Weather: 90 degrees / 1% rain / 3 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Skattebo ($6,500) Didn’t need my help here to know that the running back that ran for 262 yards on 33 attempts last week is Arizona State’s top DFS play. You have a pair of teams in Texas State and South Alabama that have employed backfield committees at times this year and an FCS school on the slate. Just have to eat the chalk and roster Skattebo in 100% of your lineups.
Fade – RB Alton McCaskill ($4,000) Remember when McCaskill was one of the best freshmen in the entire country and looking like a potential superstar? Times have changed. McCaskill saw the field briefly in a blowout setting in Week 1. Zero snaps played in a competitive game in Week 2. Doesn’t appear McCaskill is even in the conversation at this point.
Bargain Bin – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,800) Just two targets in each of the first two games for the Cincinnati transfer, but like the way his playing time increased in Week 2 vs. Mississippi State. Played 60% of the offensive snaps on Saturday and ran a route on 27% of his snaps. Both increases over Week 1.
Pivot Play – QB Sam Leavitt ($9,000) Last Saturday’s run – pass splits are not sustainable week to week, with Leavitt throwing just 20 passes. He’s the obvious third option between McCloud and whomever gets the nod for South Alabama this week, but he’s a dual-threat QB that’ll likely get 10+ rushing attempts. That architype is always in play for DFS. Texas State hasn’t faced anyone of note through two games, but the secondary is grading out strongly, ranking 2nd in pass play success rate and 23rd in EPA per pass play.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordyn Tyson ($6,000) Tyson looks like the team’s WR1 through two weeks and should’ve had a touchdown on Saturday had Leavitt thrown a better pass. Tyson’s 13 targets are nearly double the next closest Arizona State option. WR Xavier Guillory ($5,800) is on the field around 86% of the offensive snaps through two games as Arizona State has primarily run two-WR sets. Slot receiver WR Melquan Stovall ($5,800) has just four targets in two games but is the third option behind the top two.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jordan McCloud ($8,000) Best QB option on the slate by a Texas mile. McCloud has assimilated well to the new system under GJ Kinne, completing nearly 70% of his passes with five passing touchdowns, while also rushing for a pair of scores last week in the domination of UTSA. Because of the unknown situation at South Alabama (as of Tuesday writing this), I think McCloud should be in 95% of your GPP lineups, and 100% of your cash lineups.
Fade – RB Deion Hankins ($5,500) Hot-hand situation this year for the Texas State backfield with four capable rushers. Week 1 was dominated by Ismail Mahdi. Not the case in the Week 2 blowout of UTSA with three rushers garnering at least eight rushing attempts. While Hankins did find the end-zone against the Roadrunners, he’s consistently been the third RB option behind Mahdi and Lincoln Pare in the first two weeks.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Dawn Jr. ($4,300) Not even a listed starter, Dawn Jr. was the star last week with 5-150-2 on six targets. His playing time was consistent between Week’s 1 and 2 so while not a starter, he seems to be a part of the rotation, regardless of if a blowout or close game.
Pivot Play – RB Ismail Mahdi ($6,000) From what I can glean, it was just a matter of circumstance, no injury, that Mahdi only had nine rushing attempts against UTSA. Though he wasn’t all that effective either, averaging 2.9 YPC, while backup RB Lincoln Pare ($4,800) hit 100 yards and a pair of scores. In a close game, Mahdi still seems to be the RB1 if running well. Arizona State has done well against the run so far through two weeks, so we’re not hard-pressed to have any Texas State RB.
Best of the Rest – WR Joey Hobert ($6,200) Four Texas State wide receiver options to choose from realistically this week, and I think you can stack two in the same lineup. Hobert leads the way with a team-high 14 targets through two weeks. WR Kole Wilson ($5,600) has been a relative disappointment compared to expectations, catching just one pass last week. That should keep ownership down as he’s still the clear WR2 with the same number of targets as Hobert. Not opposed to playing both with McCloud. WR Jaden Williams ($4,800), a former Boston College transfer, is third on the team in routes run and third in targets (12).
Injury Notes – n/a
Northwestern State vs. South Alabama
Point-Spread: USA -37.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: USA 49 – NW St 11.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 35% rain / 13 mph winds
Northwestern State:
Can’t wait until the day when there are zero FCS teams on these slates to deal with. Whoever the starting quarterback is will be the distant fourth option – don’t even bother. RB Kennieth Lacy ($5,100) has surpassed 70 rushing yards in each of the first two games, including Tulsa in Week 1, so he’s produced even against FBS opponents. WRs Myles Kitt-Denton ($5,400) and Twon Hines ($4,700) have a combined 17 of the team’s 44 targets and the only two receiving touchdowns.
South Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Jamaal Pritchett ($5,700) Pritchett might even be a better play that Cam Skattebo given his production and price. Double-digit targets in each of the first two games with two different QBs throwing him the ball. The only thing that could possibly stop Pritchett this week is either game gets out of hand, or the incoming potential weather with some tropical storms in that direction.
Fade – WR Javon Ivory ($5,200) The former Memphis transfer was once a projected starter and now looks like the WR5 based on his usage. Ivory’s playing time declined in Week 2 and has just one target on the year so far.
Bargain Bin – WR Shamar Sandgren ($3,500) Biggest surprise so far has been the complementary receivers beyond Pritchett and Voisin. Sandgren is second in targets (15) and is playing around 75% of the offensive snaps combined over the first two games. WR Jeremiah Webb ($4,900) has been a factor with nine targets but has played significantly less. Sandgren is the far better option.
Pivot Play – WR Devin Voisin ($5,100) You can solo play Voisin or possibly stack with Pritchett in the same lineup, but probably the latter is a bit risky given the potential running game script if this matchup turns ugly. 13 targets in two games with a 77% catch rate. Clear WR2 opposite Pritchett.
Best of the Rest – RB Fluff Bothwell ($4,800) The true freshman running back has seen playing time in both of the first two games, out-playing RB Kentrell Bullock ($5,000) in both weeks. Braylon McReynolds is said to be back this week and is the team’s starter, but how much does he factor in during the first game returning from injury? Bothwell is the only RB for South Alabama so far to get double-digit carries in a game. This also has the look of a committee backfield in 2024 so any of the three backs are options. QB Bishop Davenport ($7,000) is not the runner that Gio Lopez is, but HC Major Applewhite sought out the Utah State transfer to be in the QB competition over the summer. Which was reportedly close between the two quarterbacks. Davenport looked ok against Ohio in his first start with 226 yards and a TD.
Injury Notes – QB Gio Lopez ($7,300) Questionable with a turf toe injury. RB Braylon McReynolds ($5,200) is probable after missing the Ohio game.
