Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte
Point-Spread: Char -3
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Middle Tennessee:
Chase Cunningham takes over as the QB1 for Bailey Hockman who decided to step away from football, and has performed well in spot-duty this season, completing 19-of-30 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns. Cunningham played the entire second half against UTSA, leading the Blue Raiders on two scoring drives. Because of how the run game has struggled, MTSU has had to take to the air more this season than they’d like under new OC Brent Dearmon, averaging around 32 passing attempts per, which feasibly will all go to Cunningham now as the full-time starter, where as they did split some previously with Hockman. Charlotte ranks 10th nationally, allowing just 139 yards per game through the air, but played two anemic passing attacks in Gardner-Webb and Georgia State. Advanced metrics would suggest we probably avoid Cunningham here, though, as the 49ers are 29th in Pass Play Success Rate and 24th in Defensive Points Per Opportunity.
What’s the saying…unstoppable force vs. immovable object? In this case, it would be stoppable force vs. movable object with the Middle Tennessee ground game taking on the Charlotte rush defense. MTSU is averaging just 1.79 yards per carry on the year where the 49ers have allowed nearly 800 rushing yards in three games. Amir Rasul is min priced and has led all running backs in snaps, though it’s been primarily a split between him and Martell Pettaway who is $200 more. Not saying go crazy with a team that averages just 57 yards a game on the ground, but at $3k against this porous run defense, you’d think Rasul (or Pettaway) could hit value.
You’re looking at a 6-7 man rotation at wide receiver every week and their hasn’t been a ton of consistency here either with some players in and out of the lineup due to injury. Game-week depth chart for MTSU indicates your three starters Friday will be Izaiah Gathings, Jarrin Pierce and DJ England-Chisolm which coincides with last week’s target data vs. UTSA as those three combined for six catches on 15 targets. 6-foot-5 senior Jimmy Marshall has also been a constant factor throughout the year with 111 yards receiving in Week 2 and a touchdown last weekend. Those are your four primaries, and while a bad matchup against a tough Charlotte secondary, all four players are so inexpensive that they must be considered.
Charlotte:
Chris Reynolds has cooled off since his opening performance against Duke, throwing just two touchdowns in the last two games and seeing his completion percentage drop each week. Averaging right around seven attempts per game on the ground with two rushing scores, but had just 14 yards on eight carries last week. Looking at the advanced stats for the Middle Tennessee defense, I see a lot of red – aka bad matchup. 5th in Defensive Havoc with three interceptions and five fumble recoveries already, and 13th in Defensive Points Per Opportunity. The Raiders also rank inside the top 50 nationally in both Rush/Pass Play Success Rate. Reynolds is cheap enough to consider, but his downward trends of late and the matchup probably make it low exposure for me.
The 49ers have been strong on the ground thus far, topping 100 rushing yards as a team in every game, including 306 yards against Gardner-Webb. You never want to hear the words “team effort” though, as two players have logged at least 10 attempts in every game with no single rusher topping 75 yards in a contest. Shadrick Byrd has been the one constant in the group with double-digit attempts in every game, and Calvin Camp looks to be the RB2 with the second-most carries for Charlotte in the two games that were competitive. If looking for GPP upside, this isn’t the play with Middle Tennessee being 34th in Defensive Rush Play Success and Charlotte just 83rd in Line Yards.
Realistically we have just two options in the Charlotte passing game with makes things simple as Victor Tucker and Grant Dubose account for 51 percent of the team’s total target share. Both had eight targets each last week. Cameron Dollar is listed as the third starter but has just a single target in the last two games. Despite being listed second on the depth chart, tight end Taylor Thompson does have seven catches on 10 targets with heavy snap counts in every game.
Wake Forest @ Virginia
Point-Spread: UVA -4
O/U Total: 68.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Sam Hartman is not in my initial builds and its tough to get a read on which UVA defense we should expect on Friday. The one that held Illinois to just 4.9 yards per attempt or the one that allowed 307 yards and five TDs to North Carolina? Sounds as though Virginia is getting a few pieces back in the secondary this week which will help immensely. Currently middle of the road at 71st overall in Defensive Pass Play Success.
Favorable matchup for RB1 Christian Beal-Smith against this Cavs defense that is 129th in Defensive Line Yards, 117th in Rush Play Success Rate and 95th in Rush Play PPA. Only issue rostering CBS is how much Wake Forest loves their depth at the running back position with Christian Turner and Justice Ellison both seeing consistent carries this season. CBS has scored a TD in all three games this season, but don’t expect him to be a factor as a receiver with just two targets.
The concerns over Jaquarii Roberson are misguided in my opinion, and fully expect a bounce back performance in short time. Yes, this Wake Forest offense has proven to this point to have a number of options in the passing game with A.T. Perry, Taylor Morin and others all involved. Situation was literally the exact same last season too, and Roberson still managed to average 10 targets a game. Perry certainly looks the part at 6-foot-5, 206 pounds, and has done a good job at eliminating the drops that plagued him last year. 16 targets in three games, and is not sharing any snaps at the RWR spot with any other player. Morin does with Donald Stewart, though is the clear preferred option of the two with 10 total targets. Wake’s second slot receiver, Ke’Shawn Williams took a back seat vs. Florida State, but had 10 targets in the two games prior. May not see as much time in competitive matchups as the fifth option in the passing game.
Virginia:
Brennan Armstrong will be in 95 percent of the lineups I create for Friday. The junior QB leads the nation in passing yards per game (432.7) and sixth in passing attempts per game (40.3). UVA’s run game has been non-existent to this point, adding to Armstrong’s value. WF has been good at forcing turnovers, including six last weekend against Florida State. The Deacons are allowing just 183 yards per game thus far through the air, but are just 116th in Defensive Pass Success Rate so the competition faced has something to do with their current Pass D ranking. Armstrong is close to a lock here.
Speaking of the run game, while the depth chart this week remains unchanged, starter Wayne Taulapapa is currently in concussion protocol and will be questionable for Friday. Sophomore Mike Hollins would get the starting nod should Taulapapa miss the contest but hasn’t carried the ball more than four times this season. UVA would likely take the committee approach they’ve used for much of the year with Devin Darrington and OW (offensive weapon) Keytaon Thompson both seeing time in the backfield along with Hollins. WF is 31st in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate so I don’t think we need to focus on the backfield options here with the volume being so low.
Given Armstrong will be chucking it 40+ times again in all likelihood, we’ll be looking to stack with multiple receivers. Dontayvion Wicks had the huge day against UNC with 7-183-1 on eight targets, and now has three TDs in in the last two weeks. Wicks was seen on the sidelines for a portion of the game against the Tar Heels and wound up not returning, but Mendenhall confirmed he is good to go. As for Jelani Woods, he also sustained in injury and I haven’t seen any updates there. Will have to monitor pregame but he’s under consideration given his 11 receptions and two touchdowns on 15 targets in the last two weeks. I think we might see lower ownership for Billy Kemp IV given his pricing but he remains a staple in this passing offense with 18 receptions on 23 targets and three TDs. Ra’Shaun Henry is the fourth option behind that trio, but sees steady volume with 18 targets in three games. Not sure why he is priced higher than Wicks currently.
If you’re feeling ballsy, I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility of having Keytaon Thompson in as our second QB option at $4,500. Not a direction I’m going to go much, but his involvement in all facets of the UVA offense makes him enticing, particularly if Taulapapa is indeed out. Thompson will come in at times in Wildcat formations, with four rushing attempts in the last two games, and has been targeted at least six times in the passing game in all three weeks with 60+ receiving yards in each.
Liberty @ Syracuse
Point-Spread: Lib -6
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 5% rain / 4 mph winds
Liberty:
Was a tad surprised when our Weekly Rankings came out to see Malik Willis atop the list. Granted, the Cuse have faced just Ohio, Rutgers and Albany in the first three games, but currently sit fourth nationally in total defense after three weeks and are allowing just 3.61 yards per play on the season. The Orange are just 44th in Defensive Success Rate overall, but have done an incredible job thus far at limiting the big play, ranking 1st in Open Field Yards, 9th in Defensive Pass Play Explosiveness and 40th in Run Play Explosiveness. Willis will test those stats this week undoubtedly, but I can’t help but remember last year’s performance against another ACC opponent in NC State who gave him all sorts of fits, holding him to 13-of-32 passing for 172 yards and three interceptions. Willis was not a factor on the ground either with 44 yards on 15 carries. The Orange will undoubtedly watch the game film on how NC State collapsed the pocket and mixed up their blitz packages to confuse the star QB.
Running back is a wasteland. Team numbers for Liberty are good, averaging 4.58 yards per carry as a group, but no running back has topped 65 yards in a game this season. Joshua Mack hasn’t averaged more than 3.7 yards a carry in any game yet this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more of Utah transfer T.J. Green moving forward as he’s been the far more effective back of the two in limited action. Liberty brought back all five starters along the offensive line, but are just 38th in Line Yards. That would be good if they hadn’t faced just Troy, Old Dominion and Campbell. More was expected. RB/WR Shedro Louis had a monster day last year against the Cuse with 170 rushing yards.
Kevin Shaa, Noah Frith and DJ Stubbs are the current starters on the game-week depth chart, but must monitor Stubbs as he was seen last week in a walking boot. Against Old Dominion, it was his replacement in the slot, Demario Douglas who led the team in catches (6) and targets (7). 6-foot-1 C.J. Daniels got his first start of the season last week and rewarded coaches with five catches on six targets with two touchdowns. If there is a big-play threat on the Liberty offense, its Daniels with a career 17.3 yards per catch average. Shaa saw an uptick in snaps/targets last week and also caught a pair of TDs. Those will be the Core 4 at receiver should Stubbs be unavailable.
Syracuse:
I don’t see any distinct advantages initially with Sean Tucker facing this Liberty run defense. The sophomore back has been excellent despite poor play from his offensive line which ranks 91st in Offensive Power Success and 126th in Line Yards. Syracuse will get one starter back this week which should help, and Tucker has been the workhorse in the backfield, averaging 17 carries per contest and a TD in every game. The Liberty run defense has been good to begin the season, ranking 7th in Defensive Stuff Rate and 48th in Rush Play Success so this will be a tough matchup for Tucker statistically.
Was last week the beginning of the end for Tommy DeVito as QB1 for the Orange. Both him and Garrett Shrader saw plenty of on-field work in the blowout over Albany, but it was more of the same from DeVito who tossed an interception for the second straight week. Shrader did as well, but showcased what he could do with his legs, rushing for 42 yards and a TD on five attempts. DeVito will start, but would not surprise to see both on the field Friday. Avoid.
Syracuse is expected to be missing “some cats” due to injury this week per Dino Babers, but that sounds like it will be tight ends Luke Benson and Chris Elmore. Aka, as of now, we are expecting Taj Harris to return after missing last week. When at full strength, the snap counts and targets are fairly concentrated on Harris in the slot, with Anthony Queeley and Sharod Johnson starting outside. That trio accounts for 55 percent of the target share with backup slot man Courtney Jackson rotating in when Syracuse goes 4-wide.
UNLV @ Fresno State
Point-Spread: FSU -30.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 42% rain / 10 mph winds
UNLV:
Not along here with an implied total of 14.5 for an offense that averages just 208 total yards of offense a game. Four different QBs have played this season, none of which have attempted 26 passes or more in a game. Completely out there. As for Charles Williams, he’s dominating the touches in the backfield yet again this season with 60-254-2 – UNLV’s RB2 has just seven carries on the year. Williams has had particular success over the years against Fresno State, topping 100 total yards in three prior meetings, before holding him to just 89 yards on 27 attempts last year. This is not the defense to try and find your groove running the football as Fresno is limiting opponents to just 2.72 yards per carry and are 3rd nationally in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate. Williams is a fade for me.
With the QB situation in flux, we won’t have much exposure with the UNLV receivers either this week. Kyle Williams paces the group with 21 targets, but his conversion rate is low at 42.9 percent and has four drops on the year. Sophomore slump indeed. If you asked me off the top of my head who the WR2 is here, I probably couldn’t tell you. Steve Jenkins and Tyleek Collins started last week against Iowa State but had just two catches between them. Indiana transfer Jordan Jakes has great size at 6-foot-5, and caught all two of his targets last week. If looking for UNLV exposure, tight end Giovanni Fauolo might be the best bet aside from Williams among Rebel pass-catchers with seven receptions on 10 targets, including converting on all four passes directed his way vs. Iowa State.
Fresno State:
How long does he play for and how healthy is Jake Haener this week after taking a beating vs. UCLA last weekend? Backup Jaylen Henderson took some reps with the No. 1 offense this week in practice, but the expectation seems to be that Haener will start Friday night. Might see low ownership this week with folks not wanting to risk starting him should he not play the entire contest, which seems likely at this point given health and this a likely blowout. UNLV is dead last in the Mountain West in pass defense, allowing 286 yards per game through the air. You ain’t good if you make Brock Purdy look like Bryce Young out there.
With Haener not 100 percent, might we see plenty of Ronnie Rivers? Even in blowout situations, Rivers has been on the field well into the second half, accumulating 18 touches in every game thus far. The Rebels haven’t been much better at defending the run, allowing 190 yards per game on the ground and are 92nd in Rush Play Success Rate. Heavy exposure to Rivers, and not really considering backup Jordan Mims here as he hasn’t had more than seven attempts in a game.
Tough to fit Jalen Cropper in my initial builds where I went heavy on UVA / WF pass-catchers, and would only be able to if I went super cheap at the second SFlex spot. Probably not wise to NOT have Cropper considering he’s been the most consistent receiver of any on this slate with a touchdown in all four games. Josh Kelly continues to lead the way as the WR2 with back-to-back 100-yard performances and is more than viable even with Cropper in our lineups I think. Ty Jones gets the nod over Keric Wheatfall both in pricing and production, and had a solid performance against UCLA with 5-61-0 on eight targets.