Wisconsin vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: Wis -6
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: Wis 30 – Purd 24
Weather: 77 degrees / 7% rain / 10 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Braelon Allen ($7,900) As maddening as it can be to see Allen give way to backup Chez Mellusi countless times during a game or head to the injury tent as has been the case a few times during his career, Allen will continue to be the centerpiece of the Wisconsin offense. Didn’t see it as much against Georgia Southern, but Allen’s increased usage in the passing game is what raises the floor of his value, still in the team lead with 16 targets. Notable this week as LeQuint Allen was awesome catching the ball out of the backfield last week against the Boilermakers with 6-62-0.
Fade – WR Chimere Dike ($5,400) Dike should see low ownership which is the most appealing aspect of him on the slate. First in routes run on the team but sits fifth in targets because the ball is being spread around to six different receivers on a consistent basis. I’ll go to a value option before I roster Dike. Would say the biggest fade decision is multiple Wisconsin receivers in your lineup – that’s a death knell.
Bargain Bin – WR CJ Williams ($3,000) The former 4-star USC transfer continues to get rotational work in the starting lineup, targeted seven times in three games. Production has been minimal.
Pivot Play – QB Tanner Mordecai ($8,700) Mordecai fits perfectly in the Big Ten. Run of the mill game manager that can distribute the ball effectively but is not going to solely win the Badgers any game by himself. The Purdue secondary has struggled mightily, though, in the early part of the season, ranking 82nd in Pass D success rate and have given up the 11th most fantasy points in college football to opposing quarterbacks so far. If there is a B1G matchup that Mordecai can find success, it would be this one.
Best of the Rest – RB Chez Mellusi ($6,000) This is Phil Longo’s version of Javonte Williams and Michael Carter which he had back at North Carolina a few years ago. Double-digit carries for Mellusi is going to happen weekly, whether we like it or not. Purdue is 49th in rush D success rate and allowing 16.1 FPPG to RB1s – which Mellusi is not. Don’t think we are seeing a Josh Downs-like player from Wisconsin this season in the Phil Longo scheme. WR Will Pauling ($4,900) is on the field a bunch but sharing targets/snaps with veteran Skyler Bell ($3,500). Bell is the far better value at $1.4k cheaper and has been targeted five times in each of the first three games.
Injury Notes – Just monitor Braelon Allen’s status pregame as it was mentioned by Luke Fickell that the RB1 was banged up in practice a few weeks ago, and then went to the injury tent vs. Georgia Southern multiple times.
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen ($5,000) Game got out of hand a bit so Purdue was forced to throw the ball a bit more than usual, but Yaseen led the team with 10 receptions on 14 targets and is second to only Burks in routes run this season. We’ll get into some of the notes below as to why we’re leaning with a Purdue receiver as opposed to their workhorse running back.
Fade – RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5,200) The former Iowa transfer is actually tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns this season (3) and has the highest YPA average among Purdue RBs. I wonder if we actually do see more from Tracy in the coming weeks. That said, Devin Mockobee dominates the backfield market share still at nearly 60%. Should be $4.2k.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($4,800) Lowest you should go among Purdue players on DK. Don’t know much about the redshirt freshman tight end still; that might need to change with the way Klare is performing with 13 receptions on 15 targets in the last two games alone. The previous staff under Jeff Brohm was known for utilizing the tight end position, not so much current OC Graham Harrell, so this is a bit of a surprise. Wisconsin allowed a TD last week to Georgia Southern tight end Jjay McAfee.
Pivot Play – Multiple Purdue pass-catchers. Purdue hasn’t really shown it can run the football effectively through three games, averaging just 3.4 YPC as a team and are 108th in rush play success rate. Offensive line appears to be the source of the issues, ranking 103rd in line yards and 125th in success rate. While the Badgers aren’t overwhelming on defense against the run, their front seven should hold the advantage in this matchup. Given Purdue as an Air Raid system already built in, combined with being a near touchdown underdog, this could set up like last week with the Boilermakers throwing the ball 40+ times. Purdue isn’t rotating at receiver, so rostering Yaseen, Klare, Deion Burks ($5,300) or TJ Sheffield ($5,100) is viable.
Best of the Rest – RB Devin Mockobee ($6,600) Writing this pre-projection release, but in comparison to Mockobee’s props, he’s listed at just 49.5 rushing yards for Friday. And it hasn’t moved up much, if at all. We already noted the struggles above on the Purdue offensive line. RB1s are averaging just 13.1 FPPG against the Badgers through three games. Because of Mockobee’s surefire workload of 18 touches a game, he’s a high floor low ceiling play.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State vs. Virginia
Point-Spread: NC St -9.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: NC St 28.5 – UVA 19
Weather: 68 degrees / 7% rain / 12 mph winds
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB Brennan Armstrong ($9,200) As has been the case with quarterbacks under Robert Anae…volume, volume, volume. Armstrong is 16th in the country in pass attempts per game and averaging over 12 carries a game on the ground. It’s been a struggle for Armstrong to consistently put up strong passing numbers with this entirely new receiving corps that features a true freshman as his leading receiver, but the Virginia defense looks like the perfect medicine for any ailing offense.
Fade – RB Jordan Houston ($6,400) AND WR Keyon Lesane ($5,900) There is a reason we bet the under on both player’s props when the books decide to list them. Both should be priced at $4.4k. And this is a defense in Virginia that is second in the country in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs with a 52.5% success rate when stopping the run – 128th in the country. Doesn’t matter. Houston is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry in the young season and has given way to Delbert Mimms III once the Wolfpack hit the red-zone.
Bargain Bin – WR Bradley Rozner ($3,700) We were a bit overzealous in our ranking of Rozner for CFF during the preseason, thinking he would instantly show up and become Oronde Gadsden. Mistake on our part. Little by little, though, you’re starting to see his reps increase with every game and now has found the end-zone in the past two games. He’s seemingly surpassed both DJ Collins and Terrell Timmons Jr. on the depth chart. Rozner is second behind KCC on the priority list for NC State receivers.
Pivot Play – WR KC Concepcion ($6,500) Premium pricing for the true freshman that is averaging just 7.6 yards per catch, but he is dominating the NC State target share at 22% Not in the 30% range that is for top-tier fantasy receivers, but Concepcion has nearly double the amount of targets as the next closest receiver. I think it’s wise to spend down for receivers on the slate, but we know Concepcion will see consistent looks in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – WR Porter Rooks ($4,800) Interesting that Rooks has only played half the snaps that a Keyon Lesane has, for example, yet still is second on the team in receptions and targets. Seems like he should get some more playing time, though makes some sense given NC State has given Concepcion and fellow freshman tight end Juice Vereen ($3,500) a ton of reps in the slot alongside Rooks. RB Delbert Mimms ($5,700) is tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns (3), while also leading all NC State running backs in red-zone carries (6).
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – Top 2 WRs. We mentioned this in our writeup last week – Malik Washington and Malachi Fields are absolutely dominating the target share, gobbling up 57 of the 85 passing attempts this season (67%). One or both, either strategy is viable.
Fade – RB Perris Jones ($4,400) Same boat at Jordan Houston and Keyon Lesane above. We bet their unders on player props and never include in our DFS lineups. FWIW – NC State is allowing 27.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, allowing 24 fantasy points or more to both Audric Estime and Victor Rosa. UVA splits the reps in the backfield too much, though, with Kobe Pace and Mike Hollins both involved equally.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaden Gibson ($3,100) Tough for me to tout Gibson with a good conscience but this is a freshman I know got some pub in fall camp and will be taking a starting spot now that Demick Starling announced this week he is redshirting in 2023. Huge risk that probably doesn’t need to be taken.
Pivot Play – QB Anthony Colandrea ($5,300) You see glimpses of potential from Colandrea, whom coaches described as the ultimate gamer, throwing for 263 yards in the loss to Maryland. You also see the freshman in Colandrea with four turnovers. Similar to last week, I think you just focus on the receivers for UVA without stacking with the QB. This is just a middle of the road ACC secondary for NC State, so it’s not a complete stay away in my opinion.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Don’t mess with the tight ends or running backs. Colandrea, Washington and Fields are your only realistic options here.
Injury Notes – QB Tony Muskett ($5,400) UVA shouldn’t go back to Tony Muskett even when he’s healthy. The comments from the coaching staff that stated Muskett is a bit above emergency duty means he’s not 100%. I don’t expect him to start.
Air Force vs. San Jose State
Point-Spread: AF -3.5
O/U Total: 47
Implied Score: AF 25 – SJSU 22
Weather: 71 degrees / 11% rain / 0 mph winds
Air Force:
Top Play(s) – RB Emmanuel Michel ($5,500) Just before the season started Michel was granted an extra year of eligibility by the NCAA. Three weeks later he’s rushing for three touchdowns in a blowout of Utah State. Owen Burk ($6,300) I believe is still technically the FB1 here, but don’t see that lasting. Burk has four red-zone carries in three games. Michel has triple that amount. Because of the tight spread and low (ish) game totals, I’d probably side with rostering either or, as opposed to both in a lineup. San Jose State is 120th in rush D success rate – not a great matchup with the top rushing team in the country.
Fade – The obvious. Air Force ranks dead last in pass play percentage, throwing the football just 7.52% of the time. Receivers and tight ends are irrelevant.
Bargain Bin – WR Jared Roznos ($4,600) Air Force will have to throw at some point this season? San Jose State is the most competitive team on the schedule to date. Roznos’ four targets are double the amount of the next closest receiver (grasping at straws here).
Pivot Play – RB John Lee Eldridge III ($4,900) Eldridge has not panned out the way we’d thought, relegated to the third option in the Air Force backfield. That said, Eldridge has displayed his same explosiveness through three games, averaging a team-high 8.94 yards per carry. San Jose State has already allowed 25 runs of 10+ yards or more this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Zac Larrier ($7,400) Larrier’s numbers are right on par with every single quarterback for Air Force since Troy Calhoun took over the job. The one slight difference is the passing attempts, where the Falcons have averaged 11.2 attempts per game during Calhoun’s tenure. Larrier has thrown 10 attempts combined in three games. I’d put Larrier as my 7th ranked QB on this slate, so very little exposure.
Injury Notes – n/a
San Jose State:
Top Play(s) – WR Nick Nash ($5,300) With Justin Lockhart now out of the picture this season, Nash assumes the WR1 role for the Spartans for the remainder of 2023. Historically, that’s equated to 7.9 targets and 4.7 receptions per game in this offensive system. Nash well on pace with those historical trends through four games, leading the team with 20 receptions on 31 targets. Three Utah State WRs scored double-digit fantasy points against Air Force last week.
Fade – RB Kairee Robinson ($5,500) In two matchups with FBS opponents this season, Air Force has allowed a grand total of 14.8 fantasy points to running backs. Robinson won’t see more than 15 touches on Friday as San Jose State is a pass-first offense (63%) that frequently incorporates the quarterback in the running game.
Bargain Bin – TE Dominick Mazotti ($3,400) See below to injury notes. Mazotti becomes the top punt play on the entire slate should Sam Olsen not be available. Caught a touchdown on a season-high six targets in his absence.
Pivot Play – QB Chevan Cordeiro ($7,000) Numbers are down across the board so far for Cordeiro, completing just 59% of his throws at just 5.9 yards per attempt (7.6 in 2022) and averaging only 195 yards per game through the air while throwing just as much. Seems as though Cordeiro is feeling the losses of Lockhart and last year’s leading receiver Elijah Cooks as the Spartans are just 97th in pass play success rate through four games. Air Force really isn’t the team to try and fix these issues against, allowing just 11.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Best of the Rest – WR Charles Ross ($5,400) Ross is second on the team in targets (20) and receptions (12). WR Malikhi Miller ($4,500) caught four passes on seven targets against Toledo. In that competitive matchup, San Jose State didn’t rotate their receivers at all with Nash, Ross and Miller garnering at least 66% of the offensive snaps.
Injury Notes – WR Justin Lockhart ($5,500) Lockhart is out for the season with a hand injury. Could come back with an additional year in 2024. TE Sam Olsen ($3,500) left the game against Toledo with an injury. His status is TBD for Friday.
Boise State vs. San Diego State
Point-Spread: BSU -7
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: BSU 27 – SDSU 20
Weather: 75 degrees / 1% rain / 1 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($5,800) As long as George Holani is out, Jeanty will always be the top play for the Broncos. We found out the morning of that Holani would sit again, so be prepared to make any potential changes the day of. San Diego State is only surrendering 13.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, with no RB scoring more than 16 fantasy points, but the Aztecs are not threatening defending the run. 130th in rush D success rate and 8th in the Mountain West in yards allowed on the ground.
Fade – RB Jambres Dubar ($4,800) With the tight (ish) spread, we’re likely to see Dubar’s workload reflect more what he did against UCF in Week 2 than the 13 touches he had last week against North Dakota. A lot of which had not only to do with the score, but also multiple Ashton Jeanty fumbles.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Production is very condensed for the Broncos so far. There isn’t anyone appealing outside of the four players spotlighted in this writeup for Boise State.
Pivot Play – WR Eric McAlister ($6,200) From watching Boise State briefly this season, it’s a shame that McAlister doesn’t play in a more high-octane passing attack with a QB that can complete 60% of his throws. The 6-foot-4 junior now leads the team with 30 targets, but his production is limited because of Taylen Green’s inability to complete passes consistently. Would not stack multiple receivers from Boise State in the same lineup, but either McAlister or WR2 Stefan Cobbs ($5,800) should be in a lineup. BSU can’t just run all day on San Diego State.
Best of the Rest – QB Taylen Green ($6,800) Signs of progression have not been shown for second-year starter Taylen Green, completing just 53% of his passes against average-to-below average competition, with more interceptions thrown than touchdowns. Green faces another similar defense this week in SDSU that is 63rd in pass D success rate, having allowed both Dante Moore and DJU to score 21 or more fantasy points against them. Regardless of Green’s progression as a passer, he’s always a threat with his legs and this is a very appealing price point.
Injury Notes – Monitor George Holani status on Friday. Our prediction is he does not play.
San Diego State:
Top Play(s) – TE Mark Redman ($4,300) Was going to treat San Diego State as we have the past few weeks and write a *very* brief sentence or two. But while I still have very little interest in this offense, the implied team total is close to three touchdowns this week – much higher than the previous two games. Redman is, by far, the team’s top offensive weapon with 16 receptions on 21 targets.
Fade – RBs. Just an unmitigated disaster from a fantasy perspective. From a team standpoint, the Aztecs actually look improved running the football, averaging 5.5 YPC as a team and are 70th in rush play success rate. Still a 3-4 man split in the backfield between Jaylon Armstead, Kenan Christon, and Martin Blake with little separation. If you’re forced to choose one, Armstead is the guy after rushing for 48 yards and a TD against a good Oregon State defense. Boise State has allowed three running backs so far to hit double-digit fantasy points.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Only trust worthy pass-catcher on the roster right now is Redman. Brionne Penny ($4,300) had the big day last week with six receptions on seven targets, but that’s with Mekhi Shaw out of the lineup. Tough to figure out the rotations here when at full strength. And it’s rarely worth our time trying to do that either.
Pivot Play – QB Jalen Mayden ($5,800) I’m trying to look on the roster to see if San Diego State has a potential freshman or JUCO transfer that might challenge for the starting QB job, but that depth chart looks barren. I’d have to imagine, though, that Mayden is on the hotseat for being replaced as he’s underperformed compared to the second half of last season. Similar to the running game, there were some signs of improvement last week, completing 63% of his throws for 256 yards. Boise State did hold John Rhys Plumlee to just 17 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – WR Mekhi Shaw ($4,700) Expected to play this week after missing the Oregon State contest. Still leads all receivers with 16 targets.
