Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State
- Point-Spread: OK St -12.5
- O/U Total: 54.5
- Implied Score: OK St 33.5 – Tulsa 21
- Weather: 84 degrees / 3% rain / 3 mph winds
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – WR Zion Booker ($6,300) The Western Carolina transfer has been outstanding through three games, with 23 receptions on 29 targets and a touchdown. We love the consistency, even with questionable QB play, catching six or more passes on all three weeks. One of the top WR plays, particularly on DK in full-point PPR.
Fade – QBs. As of Thursday, we’re still uncertain as to who will be the QB1 between Baylor Hayes and opening day starter Kirk Francis. Head coach Tre Lamb also stated this week that there’s “potentially” a chance that both quarterbacks play in this matchup. Against Navy in Week 3, Hayes threw for just 189 yards on 37 attempts and 42 drop backs, so even if he started the entirety of the game this week, the upside is extremely limited.
Bargain Bin – WR Zion Steptoe ($3,000) Steptoe’s time on the field looks to be directly tied to Micah Tease, who is questionable and did not play in Week 3 vs. Navy. Steptoe was inserted into the starting lineup, catching just one pass for minimal yardage. If Tease is in, Steptoe is not considerable.
Pivot Play – RB Dom Richardson ($6,000) Revenge game storyline with Richardson facing his former team. The super senior has just under 50% of the team’s rushing attempts in 2025 and nearly 50% of the total rushing yardage Tulsa has on the entire season. Oklahoma State is dead last in the Big 12 in yards allowed on the ground, but much of that to do with giving up 312 yards rushing to Oregon in Week 2.
Best of the Rest – WR Mekhi Miller ($5,300) Booker has been Tulsa’s best receiver, but Miller is second among wideouts in targets (17) and leads the team by a considerable margin in routes run. The Missouri transfer has been on the field over 90% of the time this season.
Injury Notes – WR Zion Steptoe (questionable), WR Micah Tease (questionable)
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – QB Zane Flores ($7,500) Flores is the best of a bad bunch, with no quarterback projected to score more than 18 fantasy points on the slate. In that case, the solo quarterback lineup strategy is in play on Friday. Tulsa is allowing just 162 yards per game through the air this season, but those numbers are deceiving, having played only Abilene Christian, New Mexico State and a triple-option offense in Navy. The Golden Hurricane are 98th in pass D success through three games.
Fade – RB Freddie Brock ($3,900) I don’t think rostering any Oklahoma State back, even as a double-digit favorite, is a requirement in this scenario, particularly with Brock. The Georgia State transfer did start against Oregon in Week 2 but eventually gave way to a now-healthy Rodney Fields – the projected RB1 to begin the year – and Kalib Hicks who leads the team in carries. Oklahoma State has been abysmal running the football to this point, ranking 133rd nationally in rush success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Shamar Rigby ($3,900) or WR Christian Fitzpatrick ($3,400) It’s essentially a three-man rotation for Oklahoma State at boundary receiver with Terrill Davis, Shamar Rigby and Christian Fitzpatrick all getting equal playing time. Each played between 52% and 49% of snaps this past game against Oregon. All three are capable of producing a big play, even on limited snaps or minimal target volume, with the averaged aDOT between the three being over 20 yards.
Pivot Play – WR Gavin Freeman ($5,800) Projections have Terrill Davis as the top option, but there’s no real evidence as of yet who the top receiving option in the Oklahoma State passing game is to this point. Freeman, the Oklahoma transfer, has started in the slot both weeks, and leads the team so far in both receptions (6) and targets (9).
Best of the Rest – WR Terrill Davis ($5,700) Someone will pop this week in the Oklahoma State receiver room, and projections say Davis is the best bet to do so. A 1,600-yard receiver last season for Central Oklahoma, Davis was a factor in the opening week win over UT-Martin, catching two passes for 75 yards on six targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa vs. Rutgers
- Point-Spread: Iowa -2.5
- O/U Total: 46.5
- Implied Score: Iowa 24.5 – Rut 22
- Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Iowa:
Top Play(s) – RB Kamari Moulton ($6,900) A healthy Kamari Moulton is likely RB1 in the Iowa backfield, which has one fewer option in it with Xavier Williams now out a few weeks due to injury. Offensively, the Iowa run game has been up to the task, ranking 16th in rush success rate and sixth in the B1G in yards per game on the ground (214 YPG). Conversely, Rutgers is 16th in the conference in yards given up on the ground and have not exactly played a murderous row of opponents to begin the year.
Fade – Pass-Catchers. Self-explanatory – it’s Iowa. There’s multiple options on the other three teams for the slate that we don’t need to risk Iowa throwing for 50 yards on Friday, which is entirely plausible.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaziun Patterson ($3,800) We believe Moulton will be RB1 on Friday, as he was the opening game starter for the Hawkeyes. But Patterson has done well in his place, averaging nearly six yards per carry, including 60 yards on 11 attempts vs. Iowa State in Week 2. Anything can happen with a player in his first game back from injury, so Patterson getting the start, or the majority of carries, is not out of the equation either.
Pivot Play – QB Mark Gronowski ($6,900) Rutgers has actually been worse against the pass than the run this season, with the Scarlet Knights ranking 110th in pass D success rate. That includes a 30-point fantasy performance from Ohio’s Parker Navarro in Week 1, followed by giving up over 350 total yards of offense to Miami (Ohio)’s Dequan Finn in Week 2. Gronowski has been awful this season, but he fits the dual threat profile that has shown to give Rutgers’ defense trouble already.
Injury Notes – RB Xavier Williams (out), TE Addison Ostrenga (out), WR Reece Vander Zee (out)
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – WR KJ Duff ($4,900) If Ian Strong plays, he’s the team’s WR1 but is questionable entering the contest after not playing in Week 3. Sounds like Strong is likelier to play than not play, but still up in the air. With or without Strong, Duff has emerged as a top playmaker for the Rutgers offense, leading the team in every receiving category with 22 targets, 17 receptions and two scores – both of which came when Strong was in the lineup, so we know Duff is productive regardless.
Fade – RB Ja’shon Benjamin ($4,600) Benjamin would slot into CJ Campbell’s role if he were to be out on Friday. But the Iowa run defense is stout enough that we’re not considering the RB2/3 for Rutgers in this matchup.
Bargain Bin – WR Ben Black ($3,200) If Strong does not play, Black will get the start in his place. The sophomore receiver played every offensive snap against Norfolk State last week, converting on all three of his targets while also nabbing a touchdown.
Pivot Play – RB Antwan Raymond ($4,900) It does not sound like CJ Campbell will play on Friday, so the bulk of the carries should go to Raymond who has averaged close to six yards a carry with five of the team’s six rushing touchdowns this season. The issue is the Iowa run defense, which has been outstanding to date, ranking 6th in yards allowed and 23rd in success rate. If CJ Campbell does play, the entire Rutgers backfield is a fade. But Raymond could hit value if he’s the lone man standing.
Best of the Rest – WR DT Sheffield ($6,900) Why Sheffield is the highest-priced Rutgers receiver is baffling, even moreso when you consider he’s two grand more than Duff who is more productive. That said, Sheffield is the game-breaker of the starting receivers, averaging nearly 17 yards per catch with his dangerous speed out of the slot. He also doesn’t leave the field, playing 90% of the offensive snaps in the last two weeks. Stacking Sheffield and Duff together is viable. QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($6,700) will determine the outcome of this game and possibly this slate. The Greek Rifle is off to a sensational start, completing 72% of his throws with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions, averaging 273 yards per game. Norfolk State and two MAC opponents is a lot different than Iowa, though.
Injury Notes – RB CJ Campbell (questionable), WR Ian Strong (questionable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- WR KJ Duff, Rutgers
- WR Ian Strong, Rutgers (if he plays)
- WR Zion Booker, Tulsa
- QB Zane Flores, Oklahoma State
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- WR KJ Duff, Rutgers
- WR Ian Strong, Rutgers (if he plays)
- WR Zion Booker, Tulsa
- QB Zane Flores, Oklahoma State
