Missouri @ Boston College
Point-Spread: Mizzou -1.5
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 67 degrees / 1% rain / 2 mph winds
Missouri:
Boston College’s defense has looked good through three games, but there are holes to poke in that resume. The Eagles haven’t allowed a first-half point and rank No. 14 nationally in total defense. That’s against Colgate, UMass and Temple, and the Minutemen somehow scored 28 points against the Eagles. Connor Bazelak is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt through three games. He’s thrown nine touchdown passes which is already better than last year’s totals. Does 281 yards and 2.2 touchdowns sound worthwhile to you at $6,800?
Tyler Badie continues to look like one of the best running backs in the country. His 345 yards from scrimmage rank fourth nationally, and already has 15 plays of 10 yards or more which would put him at 7th in the country. Offensive line play has been just OK for Mizzou which makes Badie’s number look all the more impressive. And if he gets shut down on the ground, Badie can make up for it as a receiver with 15 receptions on 19 targets and a receiving touchdown in every game.
One min salary option I do like this week is Mookie Cooper in the slot who saw his highest snap count last week against SE Missouri. Probably the most talented receiver on the team being a former 4-star prospect, and has converted on 10 of his 11 total targets. PFF indicates he did get the start last week in the slot over Chance Luper. And admitted risk here, and maybe unnecessary one as he does sit in a three-way OR situation on the current depth chart. Keke Chism and Tauskie Dove are the other listed starters, though Chism’s job is the only one guaranteed at the moment. Dove’s backup, talented FR Dominic Lovett, had a career high 5-76-0 on five targets. Maybe just a situational spot given it was a blowout? Not sure there.
Boston College:
The Missouri run defensive numbers are eye-popping. 174 yards and a TD to Central Michigan? They have Lew Nichols, I get it. 341 yards and four TDs to Kentucky? Well, that’s an SEC opponent with Chris Rodriguez. Somewhat understandable. 8.17 yards per carry and four TDs allowed to Southeast Missouri State? Holy hell. The Boston College run game isn’t to be feared by any stretch of the imagination but that has to put RB1 Pat Garwo in play this week at $5,200. Garwo saw extended work against UMass in Week 2 with 160 yards on 15 carries, and dominated the workload last weekend again with 48 yards and a TD on 17 attempts. I caution against having a ton of exposure to Garwo as this still is a below average rush offense, ranked 91st in Line Yards, but he’s in the pool of options.
Dennis Grosel stepped in for Phil Jurkovec last week and looked surprisingly shaky against Temple with just 34 yards passing on five completions. This is a quarterback with some experience, though, including a 500-yard performance on his resume against Virginia last season. Grosel is not a statue in the pocket, rushing for 47 yards and a TD against the Owls, and Mizzou did struggle in containing SEMO’s QB CJ Ogbonna on the ground, rushing for 99 yards on eight attempts. The Tigers have been marginally better at defending the pass, ranking 63rd in Pass Success Rate. Zay Flowers and tight end Trae Berry are the only pass-catchers here of real interest for me. Maybe not for DFS, but a note for CFF dynasty players, I’ve taken a liking to true FR Jaden Williams who was mentioned repeatedly in fall camp as being a standout. It’s shown through the early portion with eight receptions on 12 targets in three games with two TD receptions. Looks to be a building block of the future.
Georgia @ Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: UGA -35
O/U Total: 53.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia:
JT Daniels shared first-team reps again this week with Stetson Bennett as he continues to fully recover from the oblique injury, but looked pretty damn good against South Carolina, completing 72 percent of his passes for 293 yards and three touchdowns. Sounds as though the split was mostly precautionary to preserve Daniels’ health. I keep continuing to think that Georgia will just ground and pound their way to a victory against inferior opponents, which they have another in Vanderbilt this week, but that’s now eight passing touchdowns in the blowouts of South Carolina and UAB. Is this due in part to UGA’s struggles along the offensive line that is 69th in line yards? Georgia is reportedly trying a ton of different combinations along the line in practice to solidify the top group. I’m out on all Georgia running backs where nobody is averaging more than 10 carries a game. Kendall Milton saw extended work last week with 66 yards on 10 attempts, but I’ve been burned by that bridge already. James Cook is priced too high for limited upside, despite finding the end-zone twice last week. Could get you 20 points or two points.
Expectation from the Georgia beat writer is that Darnell Washington and Arian Smith will likely be out this week. Brock Bowers had led the team in targets in each of the first three weeks. Jermaine Burton has been targeted just eight times all year, but found the end-zone in each of the last two weeks with a season-long aDOT of 15.7. Capable of a big play at any given moment. Slot-man Kearis Jackson has shed the knee brace in practice and is closing in on 100 percent health – not ready to roster him just yet. True FR Adonai Mitchell saw his highest snap count of the season against South Carolina, and rewarded the staff with 4-77-1 on five targets. The issue is these guys are all priced at a range I’m not comfortable rostering them at given the frequent rotations Kirby Smart is using in these blowout scenarios.
Vanderbilt
No to Ken Seals. Probably no to Rocko Griffin even though he should receive 90 percent of the carries in that backfield now that Re’Mahn Davis is out for the season. Not against the No. 16 rush defense in the country. Chris Pierce and Will Sheppard continue to be dirt cheap for WRs in a PPR format like DraftKings, particularly Sheppard who has seen double-digit targets in two of the three games played this year with 19 receptions. But do we trust Vanderbilt can find the end-zone once this week? I don’t. Smaller slates we might dabble these players in our lineups but not in a main.
LSU @ Mississippi State
Point-Spread: LSU -2.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
LSU:
As has been the case the last year and a half basically, you beat this Mississippi State defense through the air, because the Bulldogs don’t allow you much space to run the football. Mississippi State is Top 12 nationally in all of the defensive rush play advanced metrics, allowing just 74 yards per game on the ground. Corey Kiner has emerged as the top running back in the LSU backfield, stacking together two nice weeks with a rushing touchdown in each game, but that came against McNeese State and Central Michigan. I’m out on the LSU rushing attack this week with their own issues along the offensive line that is 118th in Line Yards.
Through the air is where MSU is more susceptible, ranking 92nd in yards allowed and will give up a few chunk plays along the way as they’re 99th in Defensive Pass Play Explosiveness. We have Max Johnson ranked as a top 10 QB this week, but the issue here is can he take advantage of that questionable backend averaging just 8.0 yards per attempt. MSU has similar blitz packages to UCLA that gave Johnson fits in Week 1, and suspect the Bulldogs will try and replicate that success. Production has been there with three passing touchdowns in each of the first three weeks.
Changing of the guard (finally) at receiver with two true freshman in the starting lineup last week with Deion Smith and Brian Thomas Jr., with the former having a monster day with 5-135-2 on five targets. Expect this to be the norm from here on out with veterans like Jaray Jenkins, Koy Moore and others being phased out of the starting group. If MSU does send pressure packages similar to UCLA, would think that Johnson looks towards his trusted WR1 Kayshon Boutte early and often as he did in Week 1 with 13 targets. Tight end Jack Bech is an emerging player in the slot as his target counts have increased steadily with each passing week, finally hitting pay dirt last week against Central Michigan. Junior Devonta Lee didn’t start last week, but was more productive than Thomas Jr. with 5-47-1 on six targets. Not sure of the rotation moving forward there.
Mississippi State:
Life is much simpler when you stop trying to figure out the RB rotations for Mississippi State under Mike Leach. After a breakout Week 1, Jo’quavious Marks has seen his snap counts decrease with each passing week. It was Dillon Johnson who played a ¾ of the snap against Memphis and we even had a third obstacle enter the equation with J.J. Jernighan on the field for a portion of the contest. The trio combined for 16 catches on 19 targets, but were stymied on the ground. If playing one, I think you ride the hot hand with Johnson at $4,600 but I wouldn’t be surprised if Marks emerges as the lead back this week – just how it goes. LSU is fourth in Rush Stuff Rate so I think we can really just avoid this entirely.
Makai Polk is finally priced up to a point where we have to debate using him. Still not much of a debate in a PPR format given his 25 receptions on 32 targets in three games. But would it behoove us more to cut some salary and roll out Jaden Walley instead at $4,800. Snaps and targets are down this year, but Walley has found the end-zone in all three games. Malik Heath has shown us why Mike Leach decided to keep him on the roster following his ludicrous kick to the head of a Tulsa defender in the bowl game last year with a touchdown in both games played. Had nine receptions on 10 targets last week. Austin Williams and Jamire Calvin are rotational players that average around five targets a game, but low-upside plays. One benefit to playing either Polk or Heath this week is the doubtful status on LSU star cornerback Derek Stingley who is unlikely to play.
As expected, Will Rogers leads the nation in pass attempts per game (54.3), averaging around 361 passing yards. A lot of dinking and dunking still, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, though, but that’s to be expected in a Mike Leach offense. High-floor play here given Rogers’ likelihood to hit the 300-yard bonus (we project at 321 pass yards) but LSU is 5th in the nation in Pass Success Rate. Being 130th in explosive pass plays allowed doesn’t matter much against MSU.
Texas Tech @ Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -9
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Everything I’ve read suggests that if Tech is to win this game, they need to dominate the trenches, both offensively and defensively. Starting with the RBs, SaRodorick Thompson is full go and sounds as though this will be a time-share between him, Tahj Brooks and Xavier White. A bit unfortunate as it’s been nice to rely on just one back here with Brooks who’s been excellent, averaging over eight yards a carry with four touchdowns. ***I’ll preface this by saying this appears to be some message board troll, but there is someone on the Tech boards asking if Brooks is unhealthy currently? Really appears to be a troll job, but you must monitor everything with regards to possible injuries in CFB. The Longhorns have been gashed on the ground through the early going, ranking 106th in Rush Success Rate and are allowing over five yards a carry on the year. Both Thompson and Brooks are in play this week given their sub $5k salaries.
Initial feel is that Tyler Shough is underpriced at $6,500, though maybe accurate as we project just 1.9 touchdowns this week for him. Must be reminiscing of the old Texas Tech offense. The Longhorns are allowing opposing QBs to complete 70 percent of their passes this season, but holding them to just 6.6 yards per attempt. Texas has held Levi Lewis, KJ Jefferson and the Rice QBs to under 15 fantasy points in each game, so this will be a tough task for Shough. At receiver, its Erik Ezukanma and nobody else with 46 percent of the target share by himself. Troy transfer Kaylon Geiger was quiet in the first two weeks, but emerged against FIU with 6-109-0 on nine targets. Not in the mix for me, though, at $5,600. Myles Price and Dalton Rigdon split time in the slot, and neither have much in the way of production to show for it. Tight end Travis Koontz converted on all six targets last week with two touchdowns.
Texas:
What to make of this Texas Tech run defense? Bijan Robinson is talented enough to transcend any matchup, but the Red Raiders have been stout against the run so far, allowing just 1.73 yards per carry and are 34th in Rush Play Success. Conversely, the Texas offensive line still has lingering issues that were exacerbated in the blowout loss to Arkansas two weeks ago. Just 73rd in Line Yards and 83rd in Stuff Rate. The Longhorns gashed Rice with 427 rushing yards, but 14 of the team’s 41 attempts gained just two or fewer yards. On the flip side, Tech has faced Houston, Florida International and Stephen F. Austin to accumulate those gaudy run defense stats. A lot to consider there with Bijan.
As long as he doesn’t make any drastic errors, Casey Thompson should see the majority of the contest this week after completing 15-of-18 passes for 164 yards and two TDs vs. Rice. Our projections think highly enough of Thompson at 260 total yards and 2.5 touchdowns that they could match his $7,200 salary, but again, this is a different Texas Tech defense than the one Matt Wells has fielded in the past. 10th in Pass Play Success Rate and 12th in Explosive Pass Plays allowed. The Red Raiders have especially clamped down later in games, allowing just 16 second half points all year. Personally speaking, Thompson doesn’t catch my eye as a player I’ll have a ton of exposure to.
Everyone needs to calm down with anointing Xavier Worthy the new WR1 for Texas and completely dismissing Jordan Whittington. Why play an injury-prone player like Whittington much in a game that was out of reach after the first quarter? Whittington remains the top option here as shown in the first two weeks with 12 catches on 16 targets. Do we think that Worthy has surpassed Joshua Moore as the second-best option in the passing game? That’s correct. Back-to-back games in which Worthy has out-targeted Moore as the true FR led the way against Rice with 6-71-1 on eight targets. Don’t view any other viable pass-catching options here for Texas as they’ll involve all three of their RBs in the passing game to make up for any lack of depth.
SMU @ TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -9.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
SMU:
I didn’t immediately think Tanner Mordecai would be projected as a top 10 quarterback this week as TCU typically fields a good defense under Gary Patterson, but this is a secondary that made Chase Garbers look like Joe Montana. Mordecai may also have the benefit of facing a TCU defense without their best pass rusher in Khari Coleman who is still questionable as of Thursday. Love the volume here at 37 attempts per game, with a positive game script at 9.5-point underdogs, and Mordecai has even tucked the ball and run a bit more of late with 15 carries in the last two games. TCU ranks 41st in Pass Play Success rate so they might be better than they showed against Cal. I think this matchup also sets up well for Mordecai as teams have struggled to run the ball against the Frogs, allowing just 3.46 yards per carry and 12th in Stuff Rate. That means I’m probably out on Ulysses Bentley this week as he hasn’t seen more than 13 carries in a game all year and isn’t being featured much in the passing game. Tre Siggers is seeing just 1/3 of the game snaps, but was dead even in carries last week (13) with Bentley.
As many as five pass-catchers are viable this week for SMU, starting with Danny Gray who is on the field most out of the group, and is the team leader in targets (23) and touchdowns. Unfortunately, he leads the way in drops with five. That was the issue for Rashee Rice last year, and seems to have cleaned those up for the most part, though is fourth on the team in targets (11). 91 percent conversion rate on those targets so he’s been incredibly efficient and tied with Gray with four TDs. ***Rice had some interesting comments this week on TCU and this rivalry game that caught the attention of Zach Evans and some other Horned Frog players. Does trash talking typically work out well for SMU, I don’t know?
I haven’t gotten a chance yet to truly sit down and watch a SMU game yet this year but the perceived WR1 coming into the year, Reggie Roberson Jr., has been the third-best of the group. Sits third on the team in targets, but found the end-zone for the first time last week on a bailout Hail Mary to win the game. Can’t dismiss the volume he gets at just $4,500. Don’t think we can dismiss Arizona State transfer Jordan Kerley either at min pricing as he had a season-high 3-39-1 on four targets vs. Louisiana Tech. Don’t have much data yet on how TCU defense the tight end position, but Grant Calcaterra seems back to full strength after sitting out a year, as he’s second on the team in targets (18) and receiving TDs (3).
TCU:
Which Max Duggan are we getting this week? Our projections think he is in for a monster day, sitting fourth among quarterbacks in Week 4. The SMU secondary had a rough go of it against Louisiana Tech, allowing 351 yards and four touchdowns to Austin Kendall and now sit 74th in Defensive Pass Play Success. In Duggan’s lone competitive matchup this season, we saw similar usage of his legs that we’ve encountered in year’s past with 19-71-1 on the ground vs. California. Some safer options at cheaper salaries with this slate, but we know the 50-point upside Duggan possesses in a matchup like this.
I’m LOL’ing to the comments from Gary Patterson after Zach Evans’ performance against California where the sophomore rushed for 190 yards and a TD, stating that he’s shocked that Evans doesn’t receive more buzz nationally. MAYBE GIVE HIM THE BALL MORE. Well, for one week, we saw exactly that where Evans had 22 carries with no other running back having more than four carries. Patterson changing his tune finally on his long-standing ideals of a RBBC? The Mustangs have held up well against the run so far, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry and 69th in Rush Play Success Rate. Not insurmountable for a talent like Evans, but also not a gimme matchup.
We know of Quentin Johnston. Who else? And does it really matter? Savion Williams, another massive target, started opposite Johnston but has been ineffective. Had just one target against Cal despite seeing the second most snaps of any WR. Mixed bag in the slot with Blair Conwright, Derius Davis and Taye Barber each seeing extensive work, but no real separation among the group. Conwright found the end-zone against Cal and Davis led the trio with five targets. Don’t have a great read right now as to who the true second option in the passing game is right now…or if TCU has one at all?
Notre Dame @ Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisky -6.5
O/U Total: 45
Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Is Saturday a full fade of the Notre Dame offense? The Badgers front seven should conceivably dominate in the trenches where the Irish are allowing 4.7 sacks per game, gives up 9.3 tackles for loss and are averaging just 2.94 yards per carry. I don’t think we can outright dismiss Kyren Williams this week because of his ability in the passing game with 11 receptions on 12 targets and two receiving TDs. Even dating back to last season, in a matchup with Alabama where the Irish couldn’t muster much on the ground, Williams still came close to hitting value with eight receptions on eight targets. He’s an outright fade for me on FD, but I think he remains in the pool for us on DK.
Jack Coan revenge game? The former Badger should be familiar with Jim Leonhard’s defensive scheme, but easier said than done when actually facing them in live action. Wisconsin is allowing opposing QBs to complete just 53 percent of their throws thus far with just one TD, but surprisingly grade out in the bottom third of the country in PFF coverage grades. Michael Mayer is probably the only pass-catcher of interest here with a positive game script this week as ND will have to take to the air more than they’d prefer, and his pricing has come down as a result of last week’s one-catch performance. Kevin Austin led the way with eight targets last week but had two drops and didn’t catch a single pass. Braden Lenzy was second in targets with seven, but had a BRUTAL drop in the end-zone. Does he make up for that this week? Avery Davis converted on all five of his targets, a season-high, and topped 100 yards with a TD. Don’t see that being replicated this week, personally.
Wisconsin:
LOL to anyone even considering the idea of Graham Mertz this week. If he hits, you’re about as lucky as if/when you started Stetson Bennett two weeks ago. Over under 1.5 interceptions for safety Kyle Hamilton? Kendric Pryor, Danny Davis and Chimere Dike dominate the snap/target counts for Wisconsin receivers, but nobody has found paydirt yet this season. If Notre Dame loads up to stop the run, ala Penn State in the opener, Davis did have eight catches on 10 targets that day. Notre Dame is limiting opposing tight ends to just 3.4 FPPG, and held Purdue’s Payne Durham to his lowest output of the year last week. Doesn’t bode well for Jake Ferguson, though against Penn State he did have nine receptions on 12 targets. His production will depend on how effective the Badgers are at running the football.
Speaking of, this should be a matchup that favors the Badgers rushing attack, ranked 24th in Run Blocking per PFF against a Notre Dame defense that is below average, allowing 146 yards a game and just 73rd in Rush Success rate. How the staff plans to divvy the carries is the big question where we saw Jalen Berger get his first extended look against Eastern Michigan in Week 2. Gut instinct is that we see both Berger and Chez Mellusi get their fair share of PT, with the former Clemson transfer seeing the majority as he’s done nothing to warrant being unseated to this point, averaging 5.2 YPC.
Boise State @ Utah State
Point-Spread: Boise -9
O/U Total: 70
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Boise State:
You’d think there would be more appeal for an offense averaging 35 PPG with an implied total of nearly 40 this week, but there just aren’t a ton of attractive pieces here outside of Khalil Shakir. Touchdowns will come from somewhere and we must figure out who. Hank Bachmeier is an option, averaging 282 passing yards per game this year, but hasn’t scored more than 24 fantasy points in a game yet with his lack of running ability. On the plus side, you will probably see very low ownership in large GPPs with a middling $7,300 salary. Favorable matchup against a Utah State defense allowing 256 yards a game through the air and are 112th in Pass Success Rate. I’m talking myself into Bachmeier this week as I type.
As for Shakir, having the fourth-highest salary on the slate at just $7,800 feels like a bargain as he accounts for 30 percent of the team’s target share. A Bachmeier/Shakir stack feels appealing. WR2 Stefan Cobbs sat last week due to injury so must figure out his status pregame. Davis Koetter got the nod in his place and might have inserted himself into the starting lineup moving forward as he had 4-55-1 on seven targets. Octavius Evans continues to see starter reps, but his substandard career continues with just 10 catches on 12 targets and minimal production. Tight end Riley Smith has not been much of a factor this season in a scheme that has typically yielded good results from the position.
Ah, the George Holani dilemma. I’m not getting cute here as the Boise State offensive line is dreadful. 126th in stuff rate, 128th in line yards, 123rd in second level yards, 110th in rush play success rate. Utah State is only marginally better at defending the run, but not by much. I can’t see myself having much exposure here – maybe he finds the end-zone, but the upside is limited in my eyes.
Utah State:
Logan Bonner is severely underpriced here at $5,600, likely due to the appearance of Andrew Peasley last week in the matchup with Air Force. Bonner was shaken up during the game and had to come out for a period of time, leading to Peasley seeing the field so we’ll have to double check his status here on Saturday morning. If Bonner gets the entirety of the game, he projects to throw for three touchdowns which would easily surpass value here. The Boise State secondary has shored up some of their issues since Week 1, allowing just one passing TD over the last two weeks, holding Spencer Sanders to under 100 yards passing. Currently rank 36th in coverage grades per PFF and 10th in Pass Play PPA.
What more is there to say that hasn’t already with senior receiver Deven Thompkins who leads the country currently in receiving yards (454) and yards per game (151.3). Thompkins is also tied for second in the country in targets (37) among receivers that have played just three games this season. Slot receiver Brandon Bowling has assimilated himself well with his new surroundings at Utah State, probably a given with his knowledge of the Blake Anderson offense, but has been outstanding the last two games with back-to-back 100-yard efforts and three TDs. Crapshoot as to which is the primary WR3 each week between Justin McGriff and Derek Wright. McGriff was the beneficiary last week with 6-60-1 on eight targets, while Wright had two scores against North Dakota the prior weekend. McGriff held the significant edge in snaps last week (79-48) over Wright as the latter split time with Savon Scarver.
In year’s past with Anderson’s offense, we’ve seen a split in the backfield between the RB1 and RB2. Seems to be trending away from that as of last week with how Oregon State transfer Calvin Tyler Jr. has been playing now with four rushing TDs in three games played. Against the best rush defense in the MWC last week, Tyler rushed for 127 yards on 19 carries vs. Air Force. The Broncos have been very poor against the run this season, allowing two 30+ fantasy point performances to Jaylen Warren and Isaiah Bowser already. I think folks will easily turn to Bonner’s salary this week and forget that Tyler Jr. is a tremendous value play himself at $5,500.
Texas A&M @ Arkansas
Point-Spread: A&M -5.5
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 86 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Texas A&M:
No shot I’m risking Zach Calzada this week against the No. 12 pass defense in the country at $6,800. Calzada showed to be proficient last week at moving the sticks, completing 19-of-33 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns, but stares down his receivers too much still and accounted for at least one turnover in all three games this season. Can’t be loose with the football with star safety Jalen Catalon lining up across from you. With a defensive battle brewing, this feels like a game where A&M gets back to their bread and butter, running the football with Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane. Easier said than done against an Arkansas run defense that is limiting opponents to just 3.23 yards a carry and 39th in Rush Play Success Rate. A concern coming into the year was the Aggies offensive line, and they’ve answered some of those questions, but are not paving the way for their RBs as they did a year ago as A&M is middle of the pack in Line yards (46th) and Rush Success (53rd). Volume should be there for both Spiller and Achane to reach value this week.
Caleb Chapman and Hezekiah Jones have already been announced OUT for this week, and Jimbo Fisher is playing it close to the vest as to whether Ainias Smith will be available. If all three are out, the top trio would appear to be Chase Lane, Demond Demas (who I almost forgot was on the team still) and Moose Muhammad III who combined for nine catches on 16 targets and a pair of TDs vs. New Mexico. It looks as though it was Muhammad who played in Ainias Smith’s typical spot in the offense so his value would be downgraded most should Smith return to action, but could be worth a dart at min pricing. Jalen Wydermyer continues to be the primary pass-catching option with four catches on eight targets in all three games this year. He’s going to find the end-zone soon one would think.
Arkansas:
Texas A&M is the No. 1 scoring defense in the country, No. 1 pass defense allowing just 77 yards per game through the air, and No. 9 overall defense in terms of yards allowed per game. Just 17 points allowed in three games and zero in the last seven quarters. Helps when you face Colorado and New Mexico but Aggies seem to have fixed the issues that occurred in Week 1 vs. Kent State where they shockingly allowed 226 rushing yards. Don’t have a ton of confidence KJ Jefferson can threaten this secondary much with his arm, but we’ve seen what he can do with his legs, rushing for 180 yards and two TDs in three games. Inexpensive at $5,700 but would rather take a shot at Logan Bonner and that 70 o/u game total where he is $100 cheaper.
As mentioned, I think A&M has fixed some of their issues defending the run since the opener, but this group still ranks 86th in the country, allowing 162 yards per game. The Razorbacks sit atop the SEC with 11 rushing touchdowns on the year with RB1 Trelon Smith accounting for at least one score in all the games. Arkansas is 35th in Line Yards and 20th in Rush Play Success Rate. Biggest concern here is volume where the staff has been getting FR AJ Green and Raheim Sanders more involved with each passing week. In Arkansas’ most competitive game of the year, Smith did see 22 attempts vs. Rice.
Treylon Burks, Tyson Morris and De’Vion Warren receivers of mild interest this week as they tallied 14 of the 24 targets that went to Arkansas pass-catchers against Georgia Southern last week. All three of A&M’s starting corners have been excellent this season, helping A&M rank 4th in Pass Coverage grades per PFF. Burks comes in as our 108th highest projected WR this week so don’t view him as a must in our lineups.
Louisville @ Florida State
Point-Spread: Lou -1.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Louisville:
I think the masses are going to flock to Malik Cunningham this week facing a Florida State defense that is 116th against the pass. Not saying I wouldn’t – Cunningham has been really good this year, accounting for three touchdowns in every game this season with double-digit carries each week. I mean, if you allow 37 fantasy points to Jack Coan, safe bet we’ll get good production out of Cunningham. Where Florida State could present some problems is with their pressure packages as the Seminoles are tied for ninth in sacks and while the defense is allowing a lot of yardage through the air, this secondary grades out just 66th in Success Rate so maybe the 116th ranking is a bit inflated?
Breakout of sorts last week for Jalen Mitchell who rushed for 74 yards on 16 carries and found the end-zone for the first time this year. As of now, I think I’ll be underweight on ownership for Mitchell this week for a few reasons. Florida State is allowing just 3.02 yards per carry and just one rush this season of 20+ yards or more. Louisville’s offensive line is doing a good job of creating space, ranking 36th in Line Yards but Mitchell isn’t producing any chunk plays. On the plus side, Mitchell seems to be holding off 4-star FR Trevion Cooley for now as he’s dominating the volume in the UL backfield. Louisville receivers are a complete fade on a main slate like this with no player accounting for more than 14 percent of the target share. Braden Smith, Justin Marshall and Jordan Watkins saw the most snaps for wide receivers last week, and looks like Satterfield went to his true “starters” in a competitive matchup with UCF. The Cards rotated quite a bit vs. Eastern Kentucky the week prior. Marshon Ford had the huge week against UCF with 8-100-1 on nine targets. Not enough data yet to formulate an opinion on how FSU defends opposing tight ends, but Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer did score 27 fantasy points against this defense.
Florida State:
Trying to read the tea leaves, I think we will see just one quarterback on Saturday with McKenzie Milton getting the nod as Jordan Travis suffered a shoulder injury vs. Wake Forest. Good for clarity purposes but not for Florida State as Travis has been the far more effective player for the Noles, no matter how ugly of a ball he throws. Louisville’s pass defense has actually been pretty good this season despite ranking 93rd in yards allowed through the air. Limiting Dillon Gabriel to just 200 yards passing typically takes a Herculean effort, and the Cards are 61st in Pass Success rate so they are definitely better than their 93rd overall ranking would indicate. At receiver, I think we can count out Andrew Parchment here who is now sharing a starting spot on the team depth chart with true FR Malik McClain who wound up seeing more snaps last weekend. Ontaria Wilson returned after missing Week 2 due to injury and went for 3-91-1 on five targets vs. Wake Forest. Keyshawn Helton leads all FSU receivers in snaps, but has done little on the field with five catches on nine targets. Tight end Camren McDonald is honestly the best bang for your buck among Seminole pass-catchers, playing the most snaps of any offensive skill position player and has nine targets in the last two games at just $3,700.
Our focus with FSU is in their backfield where we are seeing a relative split between Jashaun Corbin and Treshaun Ward. Why Lawrence Toafili isn’t part of the mix, I’m not sure, as he saw just eight snaps last week. Criticize the Florida State offensive line all you want, but it’s a bit lazy as this group continues to be a really good run blocking unit, ranking 25th in Line Yards. Advantageous matchup with a Louisville defense that is 125th in Rush Play Success Rate, allowing over five yards a carry. Game script played a role, but both players had three targets each last week with Ward finding the end-zone with a receiving touchdown.
Clemson @ North Carolina State
Point-Spread: Clem -10
O/U Total: 47.5
Weather: 73 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Clemson:
I gave it a shot last week with D.J. Uiagalelei taking on a Georgia Tech defense that made Northern Illinois look good on offense, and my lineups were sunk because of it. Everyone is at blame here. DJU’s footwork and confidence are in shambles. Staff looks to have finally corrected the backfield rotations with Will Shipley now dominating the volume. Receivers aren’t creating enough separation. And OC Tony Elliott isn’t providing any favors with play calling and not allowing his 240+ pound quarterback to utilize his legs in the run game. We do have DJU projected this week for three total touchdowns and the 19th-best quarterback in College Fantasy, but wouldn’t you rather Will Rogers, whom we have two spots higher, at $100 less? I would. NC State is 7th nationally in Points Per Opportunity and 29th in Pass Play Success Rate, so doesn’t feel like a week in which DJU gets his issues cleaned up.
As for Shipley, this backfield is his now after rushing for two scores last week. Storylines galore this week for the true freshman, not only being inserted as the full-time starter now, but facing a school in N.C. State that recruited him the hardest. Shipley will also be playing in front of tons of family members Saturday – most of whom went to NC State apparently. The Wolfpack are allowing just 10.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 10th in Rush Play Success rate.
Last week’s game against Georgia Tech apparently had a ton of influence on the Clemson WR salaries. Both Joe Ngata and Justyn Ross were $6k or more last week, and now Ross gets a boost to $6,300 where Ngata has fallen to $4,400. I do think this puts Ngata in play here as an under-the-radar option with folks fading the Clemson offense based on last week. The two WRs combine for 41 percent of the target share, and Ngata is playing nearly all of the offensive snaps.
NC State:
Clemson enters this game having not allowed a touchdown on defense yet this season – not ideal if you planned on rostering any NC State players this week. This really is a full-team fade for me. Opposing quarterbacks have a 94.8 QB rating vs. this Clemson secondary, 10th worst in the country. Devin Leary doesn’t run so he’s out of the picture there. The Tigers defense limits opponents to just 3.1 yards per carry on the ground and rank 6th in Rush Success Rate. Split backfield between Ricky Person and Zonovan Knight, and both being $5k or more means we’re out here too. To NC State’s credit, they’re 14th in Line Yards and 22nd in Rush Play PPA so this is a good ground attack, just not the matchup we’re seeking. If targeting any Wolfpack players, it would be the receivers for me with the favorable game script. Thayer Thomas, Devin Carter and Emeka Emezie are dominating the target share at 49 percent, and I’d probably prefer Thomas here given pricing and the fact he has the only two touchdowns of the trio. Both Carter and Emezie have struggled with five drops to this point.
Iowa State @ Baylor
Point-Spread: ISU -7
O/U Total: 47.5
Weather: 86 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Iowa State:
Confidence boosting performance last week for Brock Purdy against UNLV, throwing for 288 yards and three touchdowns, but now faces a Dave Aranda defense that is allowing the 11th fewest fantasy points scored to opposing QBs this season (11.9). He’s out, so maybe we look towards start running back Breece Hall? Not at $7,000 as the Bears are allowing just 6.5 FPPG to opposing RBs (combined), and the Iowa State offensive line hasn’t been very good, ranking 98th in Line Yards. Xavier Hutchinson and Charlie Kolar make up 43 percent of the team’s total target share and combined for 17 of the 30 targets last week vs. UNLV but their pricing takes really limits our interest here with such a low game total. Joe Scates saw the second most snaps last week at receiver and caught all three passes directed his way vs. UNLV. Min priced, but really not worth the risk of a goose egg.
Baylor:
Gerry Bohanon has been outstanding to this point…against Texas State, Texas Southern and Kansas. Here come the big boys now, starting with Iowa State who is ranked No. 1 in total defense in the Big 12 by a long shot, allowing just 194 yards of offense per game. That said, $6k is really cheap for someone averaging 24 FPPG this season and hasn’t used his legs much to this point which is a surprise considering many thought those were his best attribute coming into the year. There really are just no weak spots when looking at this Iowa State defense who are first in yards per play nationally, second in fewest 10-yard runs allowed, third in yards per carry allowed and fourth in rush defense. It will be a BATTLE in the trenches where the strength of the Baylor offense has been its play along the offense line that is No. 1 in the country in line yards and No. 1 in power success.
While the Iowa State run game centers around one guy, Baylor offers a Thunder & Lightning duo with Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner who have already surpassed 100 rushing yards in a game five times between them this season. With the Cyclones’ success at limiting the big play, ranking inside the top five in second level yards allowed and open field yards where Ebner thrives, it would seemingly be a preferred matchup for the 221-pound Smith to mash in between the tackles.
The Bears offer a beautiful situation at receiver that fantasy players adore with the top three starters dominating the snap and target counts between R.J. Sneed, Tyquan Thornton and Josh Fleeks. Just not the matchup we want to roster any of them as Iowa State is allowing just 9.3 FPPG to opposing wide receivers this season and are 16th in Defensive Pass Success Rate. Tight end Ben Sims has been targeted 10 times in the last two games.
Rutgers @ Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -20.5
O/U Total: 50
Weather: 65 degrees / 3% rain / 14 mph winds
Rutgers:
Pretty certain we can skip Rutgers altogether for Saturday. The Knights rank 98th in the country in total offense, averaging 351 yards per game, and are in the bottom half of the Big Ten in both passing and rushing offense. Numbers are up everywhere for starting quarterback Noah Vedral, who is completing 72 percent of his throws, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt, and has four touchdowns with zero interceptions, which were a huge problem for him a year ago. Just don’t see the upside here against a Michigan defense that has fixed a lot of their defensive lapses from last season in the secondary, allowing just 176 yards a game through the air. Johnny Langan continuing to vulture rushing TDs lessens our interest here even further.
Rutgers has yet to get the ground game on track, averaging just 3.31 yards per carry, but does have 10 rushing touchdowns — seven of which belong to backups. The Wolverines are holding opponents to under four yards a carry on the year and allowed just one rushing score. Isaiah Pacheco, in all honesty, should be replaced as the RB1 here at some point. His usage in the passing game has declined as well, with just three catches in three games. At receiver, Bo Melton is priced too high for us at $6,100, though he is accounting for 33 percent of the team target share. The Wolverines’ secondary will still allow a big play here or there which Melton has shown to make a defense pay in that regard, but Michigan is up to 33rd in Defensive Pass Play Success in 2021. Shameen Jones and Aron Cruickshank round out the top trio at receiver with 11 and 14 targets, respectively.
Michigan:
The Wolverines continue to mash opponents on the ground, leading the country at 350 rushing yards per game behind the duo of Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins, who already have combined for 11 rushing touchdowns. Entering this week, there are 117 FBS teams with fewer touchdowns on the ground. Credit goes, in part, to a vastly improved offensive line that is 30th in Line Yards and 12th in Rush Play Success. Rutgers strength on defense is in the back seven in coverage, so this matchup favors the Michigan run game where the Knights are 63rd in Defensive Rush Play Success. We have Corum as the fourth-highest projected running back of the entire week, and is a relative bargain then at $6,700.
If there has been a spot lacking with the Michigan offense, it’s been a passing game that is averaging just 164 yards through three games. Losing their No. 1 receiver in Ronnie Bell to injury hasn’t helped, but the Wolverines offered no real threat through the air in the first two weeks with quarterback Cade McNamara attempting just 27 combined passes. The Michigan starter only threw 11 passes against NIU last Saturday, but he did average 17 yards per attempt, including a long bomb to junior Cornelius Johnson. If desperate to choose a Michigan pass-catcher this week, order of priority would be Johnson, Daylen Baldwin, Erick All, Mike Sainristil, Roman Wilson. As mentioned above, though, the Rutgers pass defense has been phenomenal thus far, ranking in the top five in Pass Play Success Rate and 20th in Pass Play Explosiveness so I’m not heavily interested in the Michigan passing game beyond Cornelius Johnson.