Missouri @ Boston College
Point-Spread: Mizzou -1.5
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 67 degrees / 1% rain / 2 mph winds
Missouri:
Boston College’s defense has looked good through three games, but there are holes to poke in that resume. The Eagles haven’t allowed a first-half point and rank No. 14 nationally in total defense. That’s against Colgate, UMass and Temple, and the Minutemen somehow scored 28 points against the Eagles. Connor Bazelak is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt through three games. He’s thrown nine touchdown passes which is already better than last year’s totals. Does 281 yards and 2.2 touchdowns sound worthwhile to you at $6,800?
Tyler Badie continues to look like one of the best running backs in the country. His 345 yards from scrimmage rank fourth nationally, and already has 15 plays of 10 yards or more which would put him at 7th in the country. Offensive line play has been just OK for Mizzou which makes Badie’s number look all the more impressive. And if he gets shut down on the ground, Badie can make up for it as a receiver with 15 receptions on 19 targets and a receiving touchdown in every game.
One min salary option I do like this week is Mookie Cooper in the slot who saw his highest snap count last week against SE Missouri. Probably the most talented receiver on the team being a former 4-star prospect, and has converted on 10 of his 11 total targets. PFF indicates he did get the start last week in the slot over Chance Luper. And admitted risk here, and maybe unnecessary one as he does sit in a three-way OR situation on the current depth chart. Keke Chism and Tauskie Dove are the other listed starters, though Chism’s job is the only one guaranteed at the moment. Dove’s backup, talented FR Dominic Lovett, had a career high 5-76-0 on five targets. Maybe just a situational spot given it was a blowout? Not sure there.
Boston College:
The Missouri run defensive numbers are eye-popping. 174 yards and a TD to Central Michigan? They have Lew Nichols, I get it. 341 yards and four TDs to Kentucky? Well, that’s an SEC opponent with Chris Rodriguez. Somewhat understandable. 8.17 yards per carry and four TDs allowed to Southeast Missouri State? Holy hell. The Boston College run game isn’t to be feared by any stretch of the imagination but that has to put RB1 Pat Garwo in play this week at $5,200. Garwo saw extended work against UMass in Week 2 with 160 yards on 15 carries, and dominated the workload last weekend again with 48 yards and a TD on 17 attempts. I caution against having a ton of exposure to Garwo as this still is a below average rush offense, ranked 91st in Line Yards, but he’s in the pool of options.
Dennis Grosel stepped in for Phil Jurkovec last week and looked surprisingly shaky against Temple with just 34 yards passing on five completions. This is a quarterback with some experience, though, including a 500-yard performance on his resume against Virginia last season. Grosel is not a statue in the pocket, rushing for 47 yards and a TD against the Owls, and Mizzou did struggle in containing SEMO’s QB CJ Ogbonna on the ground, rushing for 99 yards on eight attempts. The Tigers have been marginally better at defending the pass, ranking 63rd in Pass Success Rate. Zay Flowers and tight end Trae Berry are the only pass-catchers here of real interest for me. Maybe not for DFS, but a note for CFF dynasty players, I’ve taken a liking to true FR Jaden Williams who was mentioned repeatedly in fall camp as being a standout. It’s shown through the early portion with eight receptions on 12 targets in three games with two TD receptions. Looks to be a building block of the future.
Georgia @ Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: UGA -35
O/U Total: 53.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia:
JT Daniels shared first-team reps again this week with Stetson Bennett as he continues to fully recover from the oblique injury, but looked pretty damn good against South Carolina, completing 72 percent of his passes for 293 yards and three touchdowns. Sounds as though the split was mostly precautionary to preserve Daniels’ health. I keep continuing to think that Georgia will just ground and pound their way to a victory against inferior opponents, which they have another in Vanderbilt this week, but that’s now eight passing touchdowns in the blowouts of South Carolina and UAB. Is this due in part to UGA’s struggles along the offensive line that is 69th in line yards? Georgia is reportedly trying a ton of different combinations along the line in practice to solidify the top group. I’m out on all Georgia running backs where nobody is averaging more than 10 carries a game. Kendall Milton saw extended work last week with 66 yards on 10 attempts, but I’ve been burned by that bridge already. James Cook is priced too high for limited upside, despite finding the end-zone twice last week. Could get you 20 points or two points.
Expectation from the Georgia beat writer is that Darnell Washington and Arian Smith will likely be out this week. Brock Bowers had led the team in targets in each of the first three weeks. Jermaine Burton has been targeted just eight times all year, but found the end-zone in each of the last two weeks with a season-long aDOT of 15.7. Capable of a big play at any given moment. Slot-man Kearis Jackson has shed the knee brace in practice and is closing in on 100 percent health – not ready to roster him just yet. True FR Adonai Mitchell saw his highest snap count of the season against South Carolina, and rewarded the staff with 4-77-1 on five targets. The issue is these guys are all priced at a range I’m not comfortable rostering them at given the frequent rotations Kirby Smart is using in these blowout scenarios.
Vanderbilt
No to Ken Seals. Probably no to Rocko Griffin even though he should receive 90 percent of the carries in that backfield now that Re’Mahn Davis is out for the season. Not against the No. 16 rush defense in the country. Chris Pierce and Will Sheppard continue to be dirt cheap for WRs in a PPR format like DraftKings, particularly Sheppard who has seen double-digit targets in two of the three games played this year with 19 receptions. But do we trust Vanderbilt can find the end-zone once this week? I don’t. Smaller slates we might dabble these players in our lineups but not in a main.
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