BYU vs. East Carolina
- Point-Spread: BYU -6.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: BYU 28 – ECU 21.5
- Weather: 77 degrees / 4% rain / 7 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Martin ($7,000) A healthy LJ Martin, something he hasn’t always been able to be the last two years, is the far and away best player on the BYU offense. Martin has hit 100+ rushing yards in the first two games, and the Cougars are likely to continue leaning on the backfield with a freshman quarterback on the road. Not a mash play because of the ECU defense so far this season, ranking 10th in rush success rate defensively and No. 1 in the AAC in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Fade – QB Bear Bachmeier ($6,600) ECU has undoubtedly been better against the run than the pass, but the Pirates have held opponents to just one passing touchdown in three games, and fewer than 200 passing yards in two of three. Bachmeier has performed well in two games and does provided a rushing element with three scores on the ground so far. It is tough to trust a freshman on the road at night in this situation.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($3,300) It’s difficult to grade any of the BYU pass-catchers because they haven’t had to do anything yet as the Cougars have dominated their first two opponents. BYU will be forced to throw more this week, so there’s more interest in a player like Ryan whose converted on all five of his targets so far. In the offseason, at least one BYU beat writer predicted Ryan to be among the top three in catches in 2025 for the Cougars, so they plan to incorporate the TE position plenty.
Pivot Play – WR Chase Roberts ($5,300) Team leader in all receiving categories as the established WR1 for BYU with over 1,800 career receiving yards. Just 88 yards receiving in two games, but his output against Stanford in Week 2 is more indicative of what to expect from Roberts on a weekly basis, catching five passes for 88 yards on seven targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Jojo Phillips ($4,400) or WR Parker Kingston ($3,300) Phillips and Kingston ranked 3rd and 4th, respectively, in routes run among BYU pass-catchers, combining for 15 targets in two games. Low volume, but we haven’t seen the BYU starters play a full competitive game just yet.
Injury Notes – n/a
East Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Anthony Smith ($6,300) Smith has been the team’s most consistent offensive player so far, leading ECU with 23 receptions on 31 targets, but has not found the end-zone yet. Smith had his breakout performance last week with 11 receptions for 136 yards on 15 targets in the win over Coastal Carolina. We could see a high volume of passing attempts on Saturday night with ECU’s inability to run the football.
Fade – RBs. They’re cheap, but ECU has been horrid running the ball through three games, ranking 111th in rush success rate and 94th in yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, BYU is the No. 1 rush defense in the country, allowing seven (!) yards per game, limiting Stanford to 19 yards on 24 attempts in Week 2. RB London Montgomery ($3,900) and RB Parker Jenkins ($3,700) are cheap, but they’ll split carries with a bad matchup.
Bargain Bin – WR Brock Spalding ($4,200) Apologies Mr. Spalding, I was not familiar with your game. Not even considered a projected starter coming into the year, Spalding has found a home as the team’s starting slot receiver and is now second on the team in receiving yards (221), having converted on all 13 of his targets. Seems like the coaching staff needs to get Spalding on the field more often as he’s only played 34% of the team’s snaps so far.
Pivot Play – WR Yannick Smith ($6,000) Most likely scenario is DFS players spend up for Anthony Smith or go bargain shopping with Spalding, leaving less ownership on Yannick Smith. Yannick is only averaging 9.7 yards per reception, a steep decline from 16.7 in 2024, but his aDOT remains high at 13.2 yards. Just needs to connect on one of these deep shots from Kadin Houser.
Best of the Rest – QB Katin Houser ($7,800) Houser is 6th nationally in yards per game (324.3) through the air with five touchdowns and one interception in three games. His lowest output being this past week with 293 yards vs. Coastal. Tough to judge how good the BYU pass defense is given the competition faced in Campbell and Stanford, allowing a combined 198 pass yards in those two games. I’d rather play the ECU receivers without Houser, personally, than stack the passing game for the Pirates.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida vs. Miami
- Point-Spread: Mia -7.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: Mia 29.5 – UF 22
- Weather: 82 degrees / 35% rain / 9 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Jadan Baugh ($4,500) The Miami run defense is borderline elite, ranking 9th in rush success rate and 15th in yards allowed per game on the ground. The Canes limited Jeremiyah Love to just 33 yards on the ground in the opener and 27 yards on 14 attempts to Byrum Brown last weekend. With that said, this is a sensible price to pay for Florida’s RB1 in a backfield where its really not the 1A / 1B we thought it would be alongside RB JaKobi Jackson ($3,700). Baugh has nearly four times the amount of rushing yards that Jackson has this season, averaging almost seven yards per carry.
Fade – QB DJ Lagway ($7,000) Lagway should bounce back in some capacity from last week’s performance, mainly because it’s tough to be worse than tossing five interceptions in the loss to LSU. For Lagway to be fantasy-relevant this season in a system that typically doesn’t produce a ton of fantasy points for quarterbacks, he needed to be the 5-star he was coming out of high school. That hasn’t happened.
Bargain Bin – TE Hayden Hansen ($3,700) Hansen has been one of the bright spots for the Florida offense with 13 receptions on 15 targets, and second on the team in receiving yards (117). Hansen also rarely leaves the field, playing 99% of snaps over the last two games.
Pivot Play – WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($4,500) The fourth option in the Florida passing attack but did see season-highs against LSU with nine targets and 85% of snaps played. That was likely a result of being in a pass-heavy script, but won’t we see the same thing on Saturday night as a touchdown underdog? Miami did allow 100+ yards to another boundary receiver in Chas Nimrod vs. South Florida.
Best of the Rest – WR Vernell Brown III ($5,100) or WR Eugene Wilson III ($5,200) I probably wouldn’t have any Florida receivers in my FanDuel lineups, but Brown / Wilson become more appealing on DraftKings as they could be peppered with targets when eventually Florida is in a trailing position in this game. Brown was targeted 12 times vs. LSU last week and now leads the team in most receiving categories. Wilson is second in targets (17) and receptions (14), they just don’t go anywhere, averaging 4.9 yards per reception.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Toney ($6,600) The true freshman leads the Hurricanes in receiving with 228 yards, 18 catches and a touchdown on a team-best 23 targets. Toney has also been extremely efficient with his targets from Carson Beck with a 78% catch rate and zero drops thus far. Six catches in each of the first three games and is preferred on DK over FD because of the scoring settings.
Fade – RB CharMar Brown ($4,400) The North Dakota State struggled with his opportunities against USF, rushing for just 22 yards on nine attempts, bringing his seasonal average to just 3.6 yards per carry. It was thought to happen last week, but RB Jordan Lyle ($3,300) is expected to make his return from the injury suffered against Notre Dame in the opener. Don’t be surprised to see Lyle leapfrog Brown in the RB rotation.
Bargain Bin – WR Keelan Marion ($3,500) Beyond Toney, this looks like a WR-by-committee for the Hurricanes, with Marion an integral part of that rotation, ranked third on the team in targets, receptions and routes run. Although freshman WR Joshua Moore ($4,800) stole the headlines last week with two touchdowns against USF, it doesn’t seem like he’ll steal Marion’s starting job just yet. Marion led Miami with seven targets last week.
Pivot Play – QB Carson Beck ($8,000) Beck is performing like a potential Heisman candidate, completing 80% of his passes for 812 yards and seven touchdowns. The offensive line is one of the best in the nation, giving Beck plenty of time to scan the field, and the WR room is proving to be better, and deeper, than we gave credit for in the offseason. Florida’s high-level numbers aren’t bad, giving up 177 yards per game through the air, but the Gators rank 98th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Mark Fletcher ($6,200) Fletcher has emerged as the team’s RB1 with four rushing touchdowns the last two weeks and over 200 yards on the ground in that span. It will be very interesting, though, to see the backfield dynamic with Jordan Lyle back in the rotation. There’s risk with rostering Fletcher this week compared to last. WR CJ Daniels ($5,600) is looking like the Liberty version of CJ Daniels with a 93% catch rate and three touchdowns. He’s an option every week at this rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State vs. Baylor
- Point-Spread: Bay -2.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: Bay 31.5 – ASU 29
- Weather: 89 degrees / 4% rain / 6 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordyn Tyson ($7,800) We know the drill here, no need to belabor the point. 44% of the target share and 60% of the team’s receiving production. Numbers are even more staggering than they were a year ago. Speaks to Tyson’s ability, but also the lack of options beyond him.
Fade – WRs Not Named Jordan Tyson. It’s really that simple. They’re all cheap, so Malik McClain and whoever WR3 have that going for them I suppose. But the second, third and fourth leading pass-catchers for Arizona State currently are two running backs and a tight end.
Bargain Bin – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,900) Metayer had his best performance of the season last week with 6-60-1 on six targets – tripling his production from the previous two games combined. Metayer isn’t guaranteed to give us production weekly like that, but we know he’ll be on the field, playing over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Raleek Brown ($5,300) and / or RB Kyson Brown ($4,800) Baylor has been a trainwreck, specifically defending the run, allowing 188 yards on the ground which is 116th in the country and 110th in success rate. Kyson Brown is back this week, and we’ve already seen instances where multiple Arizona State RBs (see Miss State matchup) found success on the ground. I would have at least one Arizona State RB in a lineup for the night slate – preferably Raleek – but two is possible.
Best of the Rest – QB Sam Leavitt ($8,700) Leavitt’s been solid in the right matchups, scoring 37 and 27 fantasy points, respectively against Texas State and Northern Arizona. But you saw the impacts at Mississippi State of this Sun Devils team not having another reliable option aside from Jordan Tyson. Baylor has been marginally better against the pass, ranking 48th in success rate defensively. Leavitt is playable, but not a must-have.
Injury Notes – WR Jalen Moss (out)
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – QB Sawyer Robertson ($9,200) Spending up for Robertson on the slate makes sense, especially when he’s thrown for 400+ in two of the three games played this season against high-major opponents. Not surprisingly, the Bears are currently 4th in the country in pass yards per game at 368.0 YPG. Conversely, Arizona State is dead last in the B12 in yards allowed per game through the air (235.0).
Fade – TE Michael Trigg ($5,700) After the monster season-opening performance, Trigg has come back down to earth with 52 combined yards in the past two games. Trigg was questionable coming into Week 3 vs. Samford, and that likely contributed to his lack of playing time, only on the field for 28% of the snaps. Not sure he’s worth the risk at this cost.
Bargain Bin – WR Kobe Prentice ($3,000) Have to wonder if we’re going to see the Alabama transfer get more playing time as the year goes on. It would be wise from the coaching staff, considering Prentice has four receiving touchdowns in three games, while only playing 26.3% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Bryson Washington ($8,500) Washington is a great play solo, as a pivot to Robertson who is likely to see higher ownership, or I’m not opposed to a Baylor stack either given how incorporated both the QB and RB are to the offense. After a struggle in Week 1, Washington has picked up the pace with back-to-back 100-yard performances on the ground. Arizona State is just 97th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Similar to last season, we’re seeing 4-5 different receivers get equal playing time for the Bears. Josh Cameron is at the forefront with three receiving touchdowns, having played 86.3% of the team’s snaps. But Kole Wilson, Ashtyn Hawkins, and to a lesser extent Louis Brown IV are all playable.
Injury Notes – WR Traylon Ray (out)
Illinois vs. Indiana
- Point-Spread: IU -5.5
- O/U Total: 53.5
- Implied Score: IU 29.5 – Illini 24
- Weather: 81 degrees / 14% rain / 3 mph winds
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Hank Beatty ($4,900) Beatty is receiving no respect, both in DFS and the prop market, for a player that has more than triple the number of yards as the next closest Illinois receiver on the year. 19 receptions on 20 targets in 2025 for Beatty who has essentially become the Isaiah Williams of 2025 for the Illini in the slot.
Fade – WR Malik Elzy ($4,700) The top two receivers seem to be established for the Illini in Beatty and Collin Dixon. Clement stepped in for Justin Bowick last week who only played a handful of snaps before an injury knocked him out of the game. Elzy’s role has been consistent week to week, and it’s been as the 4th or 5th option in the passing game. Fewer than 30 receiving yards in all three games with zero touchdowns. We’d look to other Illini wideouts.
Bargain Bin – WR Hudson Clement ($3,000) Very curious to see what happens this week with the West Virginia transfer. Production has been minimal – just five receptions on 11 targets – but the coaching staff really ramped up his playing time against Western Michigan, playing 83% of the offensive snaps. Are we seeing a player in Clement that finally has a grasp on the offensive playbook?
Pivot Play – QB Luke Altmyer ($6,400) Illinois feels very…” Rutgerish” this season. What do I mean by that? Teams that have historically been run-first offensively are now relying on their senior quarterbacks to drive the offense. Altmyer continues to be one of the most efficient QBs in the country, completing 70% of his passes with 8 touchdowns to zero interceptions, with 19 or more fantasy points scored in all three games. He’s in play at this cost with a 20-point projection.
Best of the Rest – RB Kaden Feagin ($5,100) Feagin has scored a touchdown in all three games this season, with a season-high 100 yards on 20 carries in the win over Western Michigan. The backfield dynamic changes this week, though, with RB Aidan Laughery ($3,800) back in the lineup, so we’re not anticipating any Illinois running back getting 20 touches. The Hoosiers have shored up the run defense the last few weeks but did allow almost 10 yards a carry in the opener to Old Dominion.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($6,800) We got questions this week in college fantasy if folks should be dropping Elijah Sarratt for WR Omar Cooper Jr. ($6,400). That’s the “stuck in the moment” type moves that we try and avoid without considering the long-term outlook. Same thing happened last year with Cooper scoring 30 fantasy points against an FCS opponent. What did Sarratt do the rest of the year? Score 20+ fantasy points in five of his final nine games. Sarratt is still this team’s WR1.
Fade – WR Jonathan Brady ($4,400) Brady is the team’s return specialist. The two touchdowns against Indiana State last week, but both came when the team was already up by four scores. In semi-competitive matchups in Week 1 and 2, Brady had a combined 20 receiving yards.
Bargain Bin – RB Kaelon Black ($4,200) We’ll see increased usage for both Black and RB Roman Hemby ($5,000) moving forward with RB3 Lee Beebe now out for the season due to injury. Expect to see a 50-50 / 55-45 type split the rest of the way for the Hoosier backfield, similar to what we saw a year ago when Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton combined for 22 rushing scores. Illinois has been very good defensively through the early going, but just 56th in rush D success rate.
Pivot Play – QB Fernando Mendoza ($7,600) The floor with QBs under the tutelage of HC Curt Cignetti is so high that Mendoza is going to be an option every week, regardless of the opponent. And a 22-point projection at $7.6k is worth considering. Mendoza is a better player than last year’s starter Kurtis Rourke, and he scored 25 or more fantasy points in 7-of-11 starts.
Best of the Rest – WR EJ Williams ($4,600) Indiana is in 12 personnel a lot this season, so Sarratt / Cooper are rarely leaving the field, and typically paired with two tight ends. That means Williams is only playing 50% of the team’s offensive snaps but is the established third option in the passing game with 10 receptions on 13 targets.
Injury Notes – RB Lee Beebe (out)
Washington vs. Washington State
- Point-Spread: UW -20.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: UW 36.5 – Wazzu 16
- Weather: 80 degrees / 1% rain / 10 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonah Coleman ($7,800) Coleman is just three touchdowns shy of his total in 2024 (10) and has only played in two games this season. The surprising part to us is Coleman averaging 19.5 attempts per game, up from 14.5 carries per in 2024, and that includes two games against Colorado State and UC Davis where you would think Washington would want to get some of its younger backs some looks. Washington State is 85th in yards allowed per game on the ground and 118th in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Omari Evans ($4,600) The Penn State transfer will make his season debut on Saturday night, but according to the Washington beat writer, his return doesn’t mean he’ll be in the starting lineup. Evans will “rotate” in according to the UW writer but is considered WR4 currently.
Bargain Bin – WR Dezmen Roebuck ($3,800) Lot of cheap pieces to like on the UW side, especially if you believe this game will be a blowout. Roebuck tops the list for me, ranked second on the team among receivers in routes run, and coming off a 4-77-1 performance in Week 2 vs. UC Davis. Roebuck was on the field for 92% of the snaps that game. Assuming a blowout, RB Adam Mohammed ($3,600) likely sees some run as the team’s RB2. The sophomore has rushed for a touchdown in both games to start the season, including 95 yards in Week 2.
Pivot Play – QB Demond Williams ($9,700) Williams has played well through two games, the Huskies just simply haven’t needed him to air it out much with how the run game is clicking. Williams has been more of a factor with his legs, rushing for 150 yards on 19 attempts. You can go several ways with the UW backfield. You can stack Williams and Coleman together, but that’s tying up a ton of salary. Williams is the pivot away from Coleman, more preferably, with the RB1 expected to get heavy ownership.
Best of the Rest – WR Denzel Boston ($7,300) Similar circumstance to Demond Williams. Boston has been good with 10-142-1 on the season with 31% of the team’s target share but simply hasn’t been needed in two blowout wins. If playing Williams, I would play Boston too.
Injury Notes – WR Rashid Williams (Out)
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – WR Tony Freeman ($4,000) Whew, didn’t necessarily expect Wazzu to be great by any stretch, but this has been a dumpster fire so far, getting blown out last week 59-10 vs. North Texas. Freeman has been the team’s most consistent performer, leading the Cougars with 16 receptions on 20 targets, but hasn’t found the end zone. Sounds like we’ll be getting Zevi Eckhaus at QB – at least to start – so that could be a mild improvement.
Fade – QB Jaxon Potter ($6,100) We split the projections this week with a quarterback battle on our hands. According to head coach Jimmy Rogers, the battle has already been decided as of Sunday, and the 247Sports Wazzu site is placing their prediction on last year’s bowl game starter QB Zevi Eckhaus ($4,500). You know someone is going to see that 363-yard performance against Syracuse in the bowl game and insert Eckhaus into their lineups. Not sure the risk is worth it, considering this is no longer the Air Raid offense of old, but Eckhaus is as experienced as it gets with 8,000+ passing yards in his career.
Bargain Bin – RB Kirby Vorhees ($3,400) Vorhees has been the more productive player over Angel Johnson, averaging five yards a carry. Not entirely surprising given his knowledge of the offensive system, coming over from South Dakota State along with the new OC. Vorhees has been a presence in the passing game two, ranked third on the team with 11 targets.
Pivot Play – WR Josh Meredith ($5,000) The senior slot receiver is second on the team in targets (19), receptions (12) and first in routes run. Meredith and Freeman are really the only two Washington State receivers that have consistently been on the field for all three games this season.
Best of the Rest – TE Trey Leckner ($3,400) When’s the last time we saw an actual receiving threat at tight end for Wazzu? Leckner has been mostly a non-factor but did catch two touchdowns on six targets vs. San Diego State in Week 2.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State vs. Air Force
- Point-Spread: BSU -9.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: BSU 30.5 – AF 21
- Weather: 72 degrees / 7% rain / 6 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – A Boise State pass-catcher. Mix and match in your lineups whoever you choose, but you should have at least one Boise State receiver in your lineup this week. WR Chris Marshall ($3,900) leads the team in receiving yards (151) and routes run. He’s more appealing after seeing boundary receiver Braden Pegan go for 147 yards and two scores last week vs. Air Force. TE Matt Lauter ($4,900) is due for a breakout, leading the team in targets (12). And slot WR Latrell Caples ($5,000) is expected to have a bigger role in the offense this week according to the Boise State beat writer.
Fade – RB Malik Sherrod ($5,600) See below under pivot play.
Bargain Bin – RB Dylan Riley ($4,100) Riley appears deserving of more run after rushing for 123 yards and a touchdown against Eastern Washington in Week 2, with some believing that he’s moved ahead of Sherrod on the depth chart as the RB2. It is tough to have any major takeaways in a 40-point blowout scenario but expect to see Riley more and more on the field as the year goes on.
Pivot Play – RB Sire Gaines ($6,600) The Falcons have been moderately better against the run versus the pass, but not by much. Air Force is 82nd in yards allowed per game on the ground and 57th in rush D success rate. Not great when considering they’ve faced Utah State and an FCS opponent in the first two games. Gaines hasn’t been Ashton Jeanty, but he’s been a factor, averaging over six yards a carry with a touchdown. Two fumbles in two games, though.
Best of the Rest – QB Maddux Madsen ($7,500) Air Force is 9th in the Mountain West in yards allowed per game through the air, after giving up 287 yards and two scores to Utah State’s Bryson Barnes last week. After just two games, Air Force now ranked 135th in pass D success rate. There’s always risk with Madsen as we’ve seen extreme highs and lows in the last two seasons, but the matchup is solid.
Injury Notes – RB Jambres Dubar (out)
Air Force:
Top Play(s) – WR Cade Harris ($5,800) An Air Force receiver is the top play? In this economy? Harris is the Swiss Army Knife of the offense, similar to what we see with Noah Short at Army, being utilized in the run and pass game as the starting slot-back. 138 rushing yards and two scores on the ground, while also leading the team with five receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown.
Fade – QB Liam Szarka ($5,800) Szarka is not a Blake Horvath or Bryson Daily. He rushed for three touchdowns a week ago vs. Utah State, but you need at least two rushing touchdowns from Szarka to hit value if he’s going to average 50 yards per game through the air. Way too risky for limited upside as well.
Bargain Bin – FB Dylan Carson ($3,600) The college fantasy community was hyped for Dylan Carson coming into the year after his strong month of November with 97 or more rushing yards in each of the last four games, averaging over 20 carries per game in that span. The volume simply isn’t there yet for whatever reason, with just 17 attempts in two games. Boise State’s run defense has been average to begin the year, ranking 57th in success rate and giving up five rushing scores in two games.
Pivot Play – FB Owen Allen ($3,600) Allen showed glimpses last year of being a solid player, rushing for 100+ in Week 13 vs. Nevada. But we did not expect him to potentially be the preferred option over Dylan Carson at fullback. Yet, Allen carried the ball 16 times with a touchdown last week vs. Utah State.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina vs. Missouri
- Point-Spread: Mizzou -10.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: Mizzou 29 – SC 18.5
- Weather: 79 degrees / 27% rain / 3 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB LaNorris Sellers ($7,200) Sellers needs to be Superman for South Carolina to win this game, with how inept the Gamecocks have been offensively this season. And South Carolina NEEDS to win this game already having one SEC loss and the meat of their conference schedule upcoming. That said, there’s not much on paper to say that we should even consider Sellers here, with Missouri allowing just 11.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks through three weeks.
Fade – RB Oscar Adaway ($3,400) Insert Vince Carter “it’s over” GIF. Adaway started the first two weeks but gave way to Utah State transfer RB Rahsul Faison ($4,700) against Vanderbilt who rushed for 74 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. This will be Faison’s backfield moving forward and might get 40% or more of the backfield market share like we saw last year with Rocket Sanders. I don’t hate the idea of playing Faison in this scenario – Missouri is 94th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – Min Priced receivers. Donovan Murph and Brian Rowe Jr. were on the field over 63% of the game against Vanderbilt last week, combining for five receptions on eight targets. Aside from the top three wideouts, no South Carolina receiver was on the field for more than a third of the game. TE Jordan Dingle ($3,000) made his biggest impact of the season last week as well, with 43 yards on five targets.
Pivot Play – WR Nyck Harbor ($4,700) Aside from Sellers, if there’s a player that could potentially break the slate from South Carolina, it would be Harbor who is now averaging 23 yards per reception and a 15.1 aDOT. Against Kansas earlier in the year, Missouri did allow four pass plays of 20 yards or more, so they could be susceptible to big plays on the back end. No other South Carolina pass-catcher has more than 100 receiving yards.
Injury Notes – n/a
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – QB Beau Pribula ($7,400) Too cheap for a quarterback that is averaging nearly 29 FPPG through three games and captaining one of the best offenses in the entire country in the early part of the season. Missouri is 4th nationally in total offense, eighth in scoring, 14th in EPA per play and 13th in offensive success rate. South Carolina has been average across the board defensively.
Fade – WR Marquis Johnson ($5,400) Johnson is not an outright fade because he’s on the field 72% of the time and leads the Tigers in routes run. But his production has declined after the first week with just 39 yards in the last two games. With an aDOT and YPC average over 19 yards this season, Johnson just needs one to hit value.
Bargain Bin – TE Brett Norfleet ($3,300) The junior tight end leads the Tigers in touchdowns (3), is second in routes run behind Johnson and plays 80.2% of the offensive snaps. Norfleet is a massive red-zone threat at 6-foot-6 and has already tied his career high in touchdowns in a season in just three games played.
Pivot Play – RB Ahmad Hardy ($6,800) All that G5 to P4 transfer hesitancy does not apply to Hardy who is proving to be one of the best running backs in the entire country, averaging eight yards per carry with five rushing touchdowns in two games. We’ll see how he fares against SEC competition, but his numbers are elite so far. Second in the country in rushing yards, averaging 5.86 yards after contact and a breakaway run percentage over 50%. RB Jamal Roberts ($3,800) probably shouldn’t be stacked with Hardy in a lineup, but can’t eliminate him from the conversation either even as the RB2, as he’s averaging over seven yards a carry.
Best of the Rest – WR Kevin Coleman ($6,100) Coleman has more than double the receptions of the next closest Missouri pass-catcher, with 24 catches on 27 targets for 258 yards in three games. There’s truthfully not much of a drop off at all in production going from Luther Burden to Coleman in the slot.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
- RB Jonah Coleman, Washington
- WR Hank Beatty, Illinois
- RB Raleek Brown, Arizona State
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
- RB Jonah Coleman, Washington
- RB LJ Martin, BYU
- WR Malachi Toney, Miami
