Florida State vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: FSU -2
O/U Total: 55
Implied Score: FSU 28.5 – Clem 26.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 7% rain / 7 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Keon Coleman ($6,700) Have a feeling this will be a better football game to watch as opposed to from a fantasy perspective with the game total already dropping a point since Sunday open. When that’s the case, we’ll avoid game stacking here and just select individual pieces from this game with top-tier talent. With Jordan Travis’ skyrocketed pricing, we’ll side with Coleman here who stepped up big time in the last big matchup FSU played this season with three TDs against LSU. Game script played a major part, but Florida Atlantic’s Lajohntay Wester had a ton of success against this Clemson D last week with 12 receptions and 100+ receiving yards.
Fade – RB Lawrance Toafili ($5,400) Toafili gets decent usage in the passing game, sitting fourth on the team with eight targets, but that’s the extent of his value in a big matchup like this. Not rostering a guy that averages eight touches a game at this pricing. Toafili has just two red-zone carries on 17 attempts.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaheim Bell ($4,600) Best game of the season last week for the South Carolina transfer with 76 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Always the off chance that we see Bell get a red-zone carry like we did in the LSU matchup too. The trio of Coleman, Bell and WR2 Johnny Wilson ($6,600) are combining for 60% of the target share after three weeks, so you’re unlikely to be investing in any FSU receivers/tight ends outside this group.
Pivot Play – RB Trey Benson ($6,800) The FSU passing game has been as advertised with the additions of Coleman and Bell to the lineup, but for the Seminoles to truly reach their title aspirations in 2023, I think they have to get their stud RB1 going in the backfield. Benson was the nation’s leader in tackles avoided last season. He’s only avoided six tackles through three games. With the schedule ramping up, do we see FSU making a more concerted effort to get Benson the football in space? Clemson allowed a combined 30 fantasy points to Duke running backs in Week 1.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Travis ($9,400) I just think the pricing is too high here for Travis in a game that probably doesn’t end up in a shootout, if Vegas has pegged this correctly. Unlikely to find a winning lineup if rostering both Travis and a Bo Nix at $9.6k, and if you’re spending up for one of those two, it’ll be the Oregon QB. Decent 25.4-point projection so a high floor, but probably won’t surpass value at his pricing.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($5,700) Hopefully no repercussions from the heated debated between Shipley vs. RB coach CJ Spiller video that made the Twitter (X) rounds last week as the Clemson RB1 was pulled out of the game after being stopped near the goal-line. I would imagine Shipley is frustrated by his usage in the red-zone, giving way to backup Phil Mafah ($4,900) around the goal-line. Mafah has nine red-zone carries vs. just seven for Shipley. Me thinks he finds the end-zone this week to put this minor controversy to bed. Florida State has been leaky against the run so far, allowing four running backs to hit double-digit fantasy points already.
Fade – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,400) Very disappointing start for Briningstool coming out of the gates this season with just seven receptions on 11 targets. Garrett Riley hasn’t featured the tight end position much at his previous stops, but there was 50+ vacated targets at the position with Davis Allen graduating, and Briningstool is a massive target at 6-foot-6. Still holding out hope they find more ways to get him the football. Third among Clemson pass-catchers in targets and routes run.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Brown ($4,500) Breakout performance from Brown last week with two receiving touchdowns against Florida Atlantic. Trouble is that he plays in the slot along with Antonio Williams ($5,200), but Riley has indicated he’s going to continue to find ways for the two to play together at the same time. Remember TCU last season with Taye Barber and Derius Davis. Same dynamic here.
Pivot Play – WR Beaux Collins ($4,900) Team leader in routes run and second in targets with 18. Drops continue to plague Collins, but he’s on the field a ton and capable of a big play, averaging 15.2 yards per catch. This is not a game stack situation in my opinion, so would not roster more than one Clemson pass-catcher in a lineup. WR1s are averaging 16.5 FPPG against the Seminoles so far, with four different receivers hitting double-digit fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,300) Far from perfect, but you see improvements with each week from Klubnik and the passing game. Seven touchdowns in the last two weeks, and really forced the football downfield a bit more last week against FAU with an 8.8 average depth of target. You wonder if Clemson/Riley will get Klub on the move a bit more on Saturday as dual-threats have given the FSU defense some trouble so far with Jayden Daniels and Thomas Castellanos combined for 55 fantasy points against them.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia Tech vs. Marshall
Point-Spread: Mar -4.5
O/U Total: 41
Implied Score: Mar 23 – VT 19
Weather: 69 degrees / 8% rain / 8 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Kyron Drones ($5,800) How much can Drones get done through the air is the question here, because we know he’s an exceptional athlete. Hence why we have a 24-point projection here after he rushed for 74 yards on 22 attempts last week against a good Rutgers defense. The Herd have only played two games thus far – one against an FCS team and then two weeks ago vs. an inept offense in East Carolina. That said, Marshall allowed 132 yards on five rushing attempts to Mason Garcia. Albany QB1 Reese Poffenbarger rushed for 87 yards on four carries. Could be opportunities for Drones on the ground.
Fade – RB Malachi Thomas ($4,600) Seems as though the only way Thomas will be relevant this season is if Bhayshul Tuten ($5,200) suffers an injury as he’s holding a 2-1 advantage on rushing attempts. Realistically both players are a fade as neither is averaging more than three yards per carry on the season. Va Tech is 121st in rush success rate, and the offensive line has played poorly, ranking 124th in line yards and 113th in stuff rate.
Bargain Bin – TE Dae’Quan Wright ($3,000) Wright is only an option if you have the perfect lineup and need a min priced filler. With the depleted receiving corps, the athletic sophomore tight end has caught four passes in each of the last two games, targeted 12 times in that span.
Pivot Play – WR Jaylin Lane ($5,000) We’ll have to double check this one in the pregame, but sounds as though Lane will play on Saturday as he was practicing this week. The Middle Tennessee transfer was very good in the first two weeks, finding the end-zone in each game with a combined 13 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Da’Quan Felton ($4,900) Season-high six receptions on 10 targets for the 6-foot-5 Norfolk State transfer who will take Ali Jennings spot as the top outside receiver in his absence. The issue this week is that Marshall has one of the best G5 corners to defend him in Micah Abraham. Could be a difficult matchup. The other cornerbacks on the roster do not grade out as well, which could set up a favorable matchup for someone like Lane inside in the slot.
Injury Notes – QB Grant Wells ($5,800) Coaching staff said there is a chance Wells could play on Saturday but feels unlikely at this point. I think this staff was ready to turn the job over to Drones regardless. WR Ali Jennings ($6,200) is officially doubtful with a foot injury, but he’s expected to miss multiple weeks. Don’t expect him to play.
Marshall:
Top Play(s) – RB Rasheen Ali ($6,000) Stating the obvious that Ali is Marshall’s top play on offense. The question is if he’s a top play for this slate. We know the volume Marshall RB1s get. We saw it two years ago with Ali, and then just this past season with Khalan Laborn. They get fed the rock repeatedly. Still early to take the advanced data as bible, but the Hokies do not grade out well defending the run, ranking 121st in rush D success rate and giving up 22.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s. 21.5-point projection puts Ali in play here, but not a lock.
Fade – QB Cam Fancher ($5,500) Fancher is a dual-threat that will be an option on a 3- or 4-game DFS slate. Not a 14 gamer. His 8.2-yard average depth of targets is tied for the lowest among G5 quarterbacks. Marshall does not trust Fancher to push the ball downfield.
Bargain Bin – TE Cade Conley ($3,700) OC Clint Trickett is a former tight ends coach and has featured the position during his tenure at Marshall, most notably Xavier Gaines in 2021. Conley, a Central Michigan transfer, leads the team with nine receptions and tied for a team-high in targets (10).
Pivot Play – Marshall WRs. The Herd are 30th nationally in rush play percentage (56%) and just two passing touchdowns in two games. If you were risky enough to roster a Marshall receiver in your lineup, I would suggest just one at a maximum. Kentucky transfer DeMarcus Harris ($4,000), Caleb McMillan ($3,900) and Charles Montgomery ($4,300) comprise the starting trio.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Realistically would not consider anyone outside of Rasheen Ali here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: OU -14
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: OU 36 – Cin 22
Weather: 73 degrees / 1% rain / 9 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,100) Simply put, Gabriel is the only trustworthy fantasy producer on the Oklahoma offense. Running back rotations have been backward, and the Sooners have thrown the football to 15 different receivers seemingly. A 26.4-point projection at this price is ‘fine’. Not overweight against the field, but also would be wise to have some exposure. Cincinnati is allowing 23.1 FPPG to opposing FBS quarterbacks and gave up 28 points to Brett Gabbert a week ago.
Fade – RB Tawee Walker ($5,000) Not sure exactly what the plan was for OU at running back this season, leaning on veterans like Walker and Marcus Major to start the year. Maybe to keep them happy and on the roster to avoid transferring? Either way, the backfield was turned over last week to the more talented, younger options and envision Walker fading into the background. Had just three offensive snaps against Tulsa.
Bargain Bin – WR Nic Anderson ($3,900) Three receiving touchdowns in the win over Tulsa last week and was a hot commodity on CFF dynasty league waiver wires. That said, he played minimal reps in Oklahoma’s only “competitive” matchup this season against SMU. I really think we see the rotations tighten up a bit at both running back and receiver. Probably won’t use anyone under $6k for the Sooners.
Pivot Play – WR Drake Stoops ($6,100) Always look for the storylines when researching DFS. This will be a homecoming for the Stoops family, which are from Youngstown, Ohio, and will be playing in front of 20+ friends and family members. Stoops is second on the team in targets and routes run, with a team-high three receiving touchdowns. Have to think there will be extra motivation there for Stoops to do well.
Best of the Rest – RB Jovantae Barnes ($6,100) Barnes got the starting nod against Tulsa and rushed for 68 yards and a score on 13 carries. As we expected preseason, I think we’re finally going to see the Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk duo garner the majority of reps now that OU is into conference play. A tough matchup with a Cincinnati front that has allowed just 21 fantasy points combined to opposing running backs this season. WR Andrel Anthony ($5,300) and Jalil Farooq ($6,800) are both worth considering as we view the receivers similarly to the running back situation. Rotations will tighten and the top three of Anthony, Farooq and Stoops will get the majority of reps. Anthony, the former Michigan transfer, has been impressive with an 18.1 YPC average and aDOT of 14.5.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Emory Jones ($6,900) Difficult matchup for Cincinnati and this passing game against a secondary that ranks 22nd in pass D success rate through three games. Tulsa’s Cardell Williams and SMU’s Preston Stone scored just 13 fantasy points a piece against the Sooners in their matchups. Jones has taken well to the Scott Satterfield offense that always features a dual-threat under center, and the 5th-year senior did rush for 113 yards and a score last week against Miami (Ohio). Just can’t confidently say Jones will find success against this vastly improved secondary for OU.
Fade – RB Myles Montgomery ($4,600) Two straight offseasons we’ve heard hype surrounding Montgomery, yet it hasn’t translated into the regular season. Cincy is once again relying on the veterans in the backfield, with Montgomery seeing just 11 carries in three games.
Bargain Bin – TE Payten Singletary ($3,100) Just one reception last week, but Singletary had found the end-zone in each of the first two games to begin the year. TE1s under Satterfield have averaged 38 targets and six receiving touchdowns per season over the last nine years, so the position tends to be featured more often than not in the offense.
Pivot Play – WR Xzavier Henderson ($6,100) The Florida connection is strong between Henderson and his former Gator quarterback Emory Jones as he leads the team in receptions (19), targets (23) and yards (293). Looking at snap counts, the top three at WR has been well-established to this point with Henderson, Louisville transfer Braden Smith and Dee Wiggins atop the depth chart.
Best of the Rest – Corey Kiner ($5,100) Just when we thought Kiner was finally set for a bellcow role in the Cincy offense, he puts up a stinker last week with 31 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against a MAC defense. Meanwhile, backup Ryan Montgomery ($4,300) stole the show with 104 yards on 20 carries, completely muddying the waters now on the Bearcat backfield. Probably irrelevant this week anyways as Oklahoma is allowing just 11.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (combined) through three weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
SMU vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -6.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: TCU 34.5 – SMU 28
Weather: 86 degrees / 6% rain / 14 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – QB Preston Stone ($7,400) The running game stinks and SMU has five different receivers with at least 11 targets in 2023. That means we roll with the QB as the top play in a game that should feature a lot of points and a positive game script for Stone as a near touchdown underdog. Was last week a product of the TCU defense improving? Limiting Houston’s Donovan Smith to just 7 fantasy points, or was that just taking advantage of a Cougars’ offense in shambles? Numbers would say that was matchup based, as the Horned Frogs are still 108th in EPA per pass play defensively and 78th in pass D success rate. I really like Stone here at this price, in either a game stack or playing solo.
Fade – WR Moochie Dixon ($5,200) While Dixon gets the starting nod each week, it is essentially a 50-50 split so far with backup Romello Brinson. Heavy rotation at the wide receiver position and essentially the opposite of what we had last year with Rashee Rice and his 35% target share.
Bargain Bin – TE RJ Maryland ($3,400) Using the Oklahoma game as the best example for comparison to this matchup, the sophomore tight end led the team with seven targets. Doesn’t appear as though Maryland is set for a Top 10 fantasy season at tight end like we projected, but this still is an offensive scheme under Rhett Lashlee that features the position often in the passing game, as we’ve seen in the past with Kylen Granson, Brevin Jordan and Will Mallory.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Kerley ($5,300) Was last week’s breakout with 83 yards and two touchdowns a sign of things to come, or will the football still be distributed to 7-8 different SMU receivers each week? Tough question to answer and think we should get a better idea after this week of how the remainder of the season will set up for Kerley and the SMU wideouts. Kerley had the best connection with Preston Stone all offseason, so we’re surprised by his slow start.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaylan Knighton ($5,600) Healthy projection for Knighton this week, after his surprise scratch last Saturday due to being suspended for missing class. Seems like he’s good to go this week, but would double check pregame. Not the best matchup as SMU’s offensive line has been the weak link of the offense, and TCU ranks 29th in rush D success rate. WR Jake Bailey ($5,500) has been the most effective SMU receiver to date with 13 receptions on a team-high 15 targets. Revenge game storyline for former TCU transfer Jordan Hudson ($4,900) facing his old team.
Injury Notes – RB LJ Johnson ($3,900) The Texas A&M transfer is listed on the depth chart in an OR situation with Jaylan Knighton. Johnson did not play last week due to an injury. Lashlee provided a partial update that Johnson is practicing this week and feels good where he’s at but will likely be a game day decision.
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Chandler Morris ($7,800) Very similar arguments here for Morris as stated above for Preston Stone. TCU has been far more effective on the ground, so we’ll see more balance from the Horned Frogs than the Mustangs. But we’re not really interested in any receivers, so we want the guy touching the football every play. Dillon Gabriel scored over 25 fantasy points against this SMU defense. 28-point projection at this pricing is very strong.
Fade – WR Savion Williams ($6,300) If I’m even bothering rostering a TCU receiver, I’m looking to save some dollars and look towards a cheaper option given how spread out the targets are. Williams did have a good performance against Houston with three receptions and a touchdown. His spot in the starting lineup is essentially a split with former Arkansas transfer Warren Thompson.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaylon Robinson ($4,000) After minimal production in the opener, Robinson’s playing time has increased significantly the last two weeks. The UCF transfer posted 13 of his 14 targets in the last two games, and now leads all TCU wideouts in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR JP Richardson ($5,900) Just 16% target share for the Oklahoma State transfer, which speaks to our disinterest in the TCU receivers. But Richardson does lead the team in yards, targets and receptions.
Best of the Rest – RB Emani Bailey ($6,400) The Trey Sanders red-zone usage won’t go away this season, and while frustrating, it’s a fair trade if Bailey continues to get 76% of the rushing attempts that go to TCU running backs. SMU grades out well analytically against the run but did allow multiple Oklahoma running backs to hit double-digit fantasy points in their matchup with the Sooners. Sanders has taken a back seat to Bailey but continues to hold a 12-7 advantage in red-zone rushing attempts despite significantly less carries. He should be sprinkled into some lineups that do not include Bailey.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -8.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: A&M 30 – Aub 21.5
Weather: 88 degrees / 8% rain / 9 mph winds
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – WR Jay Fair ($5,100) Impressive start to the season for the sophomore receiver, now with 26% of the team’s target share and leads all Tigers’ wideouts in nearly every receiving category. Why has Fair been able to acclimatize himself so well to the new offense under Phillip Montgomery and Hugh Freeze? It’s apparently the exact same scheme he ran in high school.
Fade – RB Damari Alston ($5,800) Alston was a name that popped up in almost every fall camp report when RB Jarquez Hunter ($6,900) was absent from practices, but with the RB1 now back in the fold, the sophomore seems to be taking a back seat now. Hunter has now out-carried Alston in consecutive games. We don’t really want to invest in this running game as it is, facing an A&M defense that is 16th in rush D success rate and allowing just 7.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. So, we really don’t want to roster an RB2 in this case.
Bargain Bin – TE Rivaldo Fairweather ($4,300) Starting to see the FIU transfer involved more in the offense in recent weeks, with all eight of his receptions in the last two games. Hugh Freeze has done well with athletic tight ends in the past such as Fairweather – he had Evan Engram back when coaching at Ole Miss.
Pivot Play – WR Shane Hooks ($5,600) Auburn will have to throw as a touchdown underdog and Hooks is the team’s top deep threat, averaging 17.6 YPC and a 13.4 aDOT. The former Jackson State and Ohio transfer is second in targets (12) and first in routes run on the team.
Best of the Rest – QB Payton Thorne ($8,000) Too many other good quarterbacks on a 14-game slate for me to give Thorne much consideration here. Positive game script and he can run are the only arguments I have here. Outside of Tyler Van Dyke, quarterbacks haven’t done much against this A&M secondary.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Evan Stewart ($6,700) This is all assuming Stewart is healthy for Saturday after missing last week’s contest. Seems like that move was more precautionary than anything as A&M won comfortably against Louisiana-Monroe. Stewart has nine more targets than the next closest A&M receiver still despite not suiting up last week.
Fade – RBs. Amari Daniels is the RB1, but I think we’re going to continue to see a three-way split in the A&M backfield each week. Le’Veon Moss has showed well in spots, and 5-star Rueben Owens won’t be kept off the field. Auburn is allowing 16.5 FPPG to opposing backfields this season and are 67th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Jahdae Walker ($3,000) Just keep an eye on the injury situation here, because Walker is the direct replacement in the starting lineup for Evan Stewart should he somehow be unavailable (not expected). Walker caught five passes on six targets for 110 yards and a score last week against ULM.
Pivot Play – WR Ainias Smith ($5,400) Thought Smith was dead in the water with Stewart and Thomas surpassing him on the pecking order. And that still may be the case if both are in the lineup, but we saw a resurgence last week with 7-127-0 on eight targets. Stewart being back in the lineup kicks Smith back into the slot, which in turn, relegates Moose Muhammad III to a backup.
Best of the Rest – QB Conner Weigman ($8,900) Numbers are inflated for Auburn after facing California and UMass in the non-conference, but the Tigers are only allowing 11.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. This won’t come as a shocker after taking on Sam Jackson and Taisun Phommachanh, but Auburn is 4th in pass D success rate. I’m fine with mixing in Weigman as an option in GPPs, pairing him with an A&M receiver, but wouldn’t fully stack this passing game. Auburn’s pass rush should be able to give Weigman some troubles behind a questionable offensive line.
Injury Notes – Check Stewart’s status pregame. If Vegas is listing his player props, he’s likely a go. Fellow WR Noah Thomas ($5,700) also left last week’s contest due to an injury and was reportedly walking gingerly on his ankle. Thomas was also banged up against Miami in Week 2.
Rutgers vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -24
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: UM 34 – Rutg 10
Weather: 70 degrees / 1% rain / 11 mph winds
Rutgers:
Lowest team total on the slate. Zero passing game to speak of. RB Kyle Monangai ($5,300) has been a revelation for the Scarlet Knights, once thought to be the third-string running back and now leads the entire Big Ten in rushing through three games. Unfortunately for Monangai, Michigan has one of the best defensive fronts in all of college football and a ton of beef on the interior.
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,300) Tough matchup against a Rutgers defense that is allowing just 14.8 fantasy points per game combined to opposing RBs. Michigan has also been surprisingly average running the football, much of which due to the turnover on the offensive line with three new starters. Sounds like some changes could be made after a sub-par performance last week against Bowling Green. Regardless, Corum really started to increase his workload once Michigan hit B1G play last season. 15 touches should be the floor for Corum.
Fade – RB Donovan Edwards ($6,600) Not sure if it’s the type of running plays that Michigan is giving Edwards or what, but he’s again struggling to find a much space in the early part of this season, averaging just 3.6 YPC. That’s ok if his usage in the passing game is still there, but Edwards wasn’t targeted a single time against Bowling Green. This feels eerily similar to last year, and at this point, $6.6k is too big of a risk.
Bargain Bin – TE Colston Loveland ($3,800) or WR Tyler Morris ($3,000) Just four players were targeted against Bowling Green last Saturday. Morris, a redshirt freshman, gives off major Ronnie Bell vibes as an under-recruited 3-star and has solidified himself as the WR3 for Michigan. Loveland has been quiet for how much hype he received in the offseason but have a feeling his involvement in the offense is coming with more competitive matchups.
Pivot Play – QB J.J. McCarthy ($8,700) Uncharacteristic performance from McCarthy last week against Bowling Green with two interceptions. Sometimes when you strive for greatness, this tends to happen, according to head coach Jim Harbaugh who has unwavering faith in his QB1. Rutgers is only allowing 11.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, but they’ve also faced Kyron Drones, E.J. Warner and whatever the hell they run out under center at Northwestern these days. Price is probably too high for McCarthy this week, but he’s not eliminated from our player pool either.
Best of the Rest – WR Roman Wilson ($5,500) or WR Cornelius Johnson ($5,400) Would not roster both, just one in your DFS lineups. Wilson is obviously the preferred choice with six of the team’s seven receiving touchdowns, but Johnson has more receptions and just one fewer target. Aside from their touchdown disparity, the numbers between the two are almost identical.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -14
O/U Total: 55
Implied Score: UL 34.5 – BC 20.5
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – QB Thomas Castellanos ($5,900) We knew what Castellanos did well when transferring over from UCF. There is an architype of quarterback that Gus Malzahn typically recruits – runners. That was on full display against Florida State with 95 yards and a touchdown on 16 attempts, giving him consecutive games with as many rushing attempts. I’d like to see more before fully buying in, but that kind of performance against a Top 5 team is impressive. Louisville is allowing over 21 FPPG to P5 quarterbacks currently. A 26-point projection at this pricing puts Castellanos squarely in play here for all formats.
Fade – WR Dino Tomlin ($3,700) Tomlin was the star of the spring for BC but Mike Tomlin’s son seems to have fallen down the depth chart to second string. Ran just six routes each of the last two games.
Bargain Bin – WR Joseph Griffin ($4,100) Of course just when I dropped Griffin from all of my dynasty rosters, he winds up leading the team with eight targets vs. Florida State. Griffin leads all BC receivers in routes run in 2023.
Pivot Play – RBs. A lot of cloudiness regarding the status of the BC running backs and their availability. Pat Garwo did not play last week and unsure of his status. Kye Robichaux had his best rushing performance of his career against Florida State but was a little banged up towards the end of the game according to a team beat writer. The follow-up to that comment was that we could see more of Alex Broome and Cam’ron Barfield as a result. Opposing backfields have had tremendous success against the Louisville front so far, averaging around 39 FPPG which is the sixth most in the country. Figuring out who the lead back for Saturday here could be of some importance.
Best of the Rest – WR Lewis Bond ($3,900) Bond has been arguably the most consistent BC receiver through three games, now leading the team with 18 targets and two touchdowns. Brings a bit more explosiveness to the position than a Ryan O’Keefe as Bond is averaging 14.6 YPC. O’Keefe continues to pace the team with 15 receptions but his aDOT is sitting at just 4.2 which means most targets he’s getting are within five yards of the line of scrimmage. He need more volume to reach value.
Injury Notes – See above on the RB situation.
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Jamari Thrash ($6,600) We’re rostering Thrash until he either fails us or gets a significant price bump. Neither have happened thus far. BC has fared well against opposing WR1s so far, allowing just 12.5 FPPG. But that was against an inept NIU offense and Florida State in windy conditions. Thrash has twice as many targets (21) and almost twice as many catches (14) as the next closest Louisville WRs. WR1s under Jeff Brohm are undefeated.
Fade – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,700) Didn’t watch closely enough to see who lined up first for Louisville last week, but Pro Football Focus noted that it was Kevin Coleman who started against Indiana and not AHB. Snap counts reflect a split in the slot between the two. There is a massive gap as noted above between Thrash and the next closest receiver on the Louisville roster from a production standpoint, so we’d look to cut costs if looking at a second Cardinal receiver.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Production has been so condensed for Louisville between three players that I wouldn’t consider anyone outside of the Big 3 of Thrash, Plummer, and Jordan.
Pivot Play – QB Jack Plummer ($7,500) I think the switch to Castellanos for BC does help Plummer in this matchup in that we should have a more competitive matchup, leading to more passes from the Louisville side of things. BC did a good job of limiting Jordan Travis and the passing game last week, holding the Heisman contender to just 20 fantasy points. Advanced stats paint a different picture where the Eagles are 89th in pass D success rate and have allowed 14 passing plays of 15 yards or more already. The Eagles have also failed to generate much of a pass rush in 2023, allowing Plummer time to drop back and scan the field with comfortability.
Best of the Rest – RB Jawhar Jordan ($6,500) I’ll be interested to see how the RB distribution shakes out on Saturday. Maurice Turner returned from injury last week so it was clear they eased him into action with just four rushing attempts. The backfield was split evenly three ways in the opener against Georgia Tech. So which is it? BC limited Trey Benson to under 40 yards with one touchdown last week but are 118th in rush yards allowed per game and 107th in rush yards per attempt allowed.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami vs. Temple
Point-Spread: Mia -23.5
O/U Total: 47
Implied Score: Mia 35.5 – Temp 12
Weather: 63 degrees / 81% rain / 22 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Colbie Young ($5,400) Seeing around the DFS sphere that both Xavier Restrepo ($5,800) and Jacolby George ($5,100) are popping in some optimal lineups. And for good reason, I’m not disagreeing with that. But still am of the stance that Young is the WR1 for the Canes. Regardless of your opinion on the situation, at least one Miami receiver should be in your lineup for Saturday, and two isn’t outlandish given the affordable pricing on each of them. The trio combines for 68% of the team’s target share.
Fade – n/a. The starting QB, top three running backs and top three WRs are all potential options here on the Miami side. The fade is anyone outside of the group or any injured players like a Mark Fletcher or Elijah Arroyo.
Bargain Bin – RB Donald Chaney Jr. ($4,300) The oft-injured junior running back had his best game of the season with 73 yards and a score on seven attempts against Bethune-Cookman. There is no bellcow in the Miami backfield this season it appears and all three of the top backs could see action in the potential blowout.
Pivot Play – RB Henry Parrish Jr. ($5,900) or Ajay Allen ($4,800) Should get equal work between the two so might side with Allen here at the price discount. Temple is allowing 38.8 FPPG to opposing backfields this season, eighth highest average in the country. Regardless of who is carrying the football, Miami should churn out chunks on the ground.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($8,600) Don’t see the upside here with TVD unless Temple can somehow make this a contest. The Hurricanes have leaned heavily on the run game in its two early blowouts over inferior competition. Van Dyke did score 25 fantasy points last week, but his one rushing touchdown will be a rare occurrence this season. High floor, low ceiling.
Injury Notes – RB Mark Fletcher Jr. ($4,900) Sounds like the 4-star freshman has practiced this week after sitting out the Bethune-Cookman matchup. With Miami being a 26-point favorite and a bye week upcoming, I would imagine anyone not 100% is probably either not playing or on a very limited snap count.
Temple:
Top Play(s) – WR Dante Wright ($4,400) Mildly surprised at the Temple early season production from its receivers, starting with Colorado State transfer Dante Wright who leads the team in targets, receptions, and yards through the first three weeks. Here’s the best part about potentially rostering Wright or WR2 Amad Anderson ($4,200) on this slate, and this stat shocked me when I read it. Just three Temple receivers have caught a pass in three weeks. While the Owls feature the TE and RB position a ton in the passing game, there is a severe lack of depth at receiver. Anderson was on the field on the second to last position last week in a 41-9 blowout win.
Fade – QB E.J. Warner ($5,100) Another player that we’ll pay more attention to in future slates when Temple gets into conference play. Not on a 14-game slate against Miami defense that dominated against lower-level competition thus far. Warner is a non-runner, and the Temple passing game hasn’t played up to the level they did a year ago as the sophomore QB is 96th in pass efficiency.
Bargain Bin – TE David Martin-Robinson ($3,400) DMR was being projected by some as a Top 10 fantasy tight end this offseason, but the production hasn’t matched the ranking. 16 targets through three games with zero touchdowns. Martin-Robinson had nearly that much in the season finale last season against East Carolina. That said, the senior tight end is on the field all the time, playing 208 of the 229 offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – WR Zae Baines ($3,300) Just behind Martin-Robinson is Baines who is established as the WR3 behind Anderson and Wright, playing 207 offensive snaps with 18 targets. The issue is that Warner and Baines have a connection issue, as the WR3 has converted on just 33% of his targets with a drop. We know Temple will be throwing and we know Baines will be on the field. Longshot.
Best of the Rest – RB Joquez Smith ($4,600) Smith burst onto the scene last week against Norfolk with 142 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. We do not expect that level of production this week, but Temple features running backs often in the passing game with a combined 18 targets going to the position. A large portion of that has gone to Saydee who we know is an adept pass-catcher. Maybe Smith can fill the void? Miami is 12th in rush D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: KU -9.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: KU 32 – BYU 23.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 66% rain / 17 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Martin ($4,900) The yards per carry wasn’t great, but 22 carries for a true freshman, on the road, at night, against an SEC opponent is very notable. Turns out Aidan Robbins has been dealing with a nagging injury, but don’t believe that is the root cause for Martin ascending atop the depth chart. Last week proved that. The Jayhawks are allowing just 10.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far, but grade out poorly against the run, ranking 115th in rush D success rate. Just two carries went to running backs not named LJ Martin last week, which we love from a fantasy perspective.
Fade – QB Kedon Slovis ($5,700) Slovis is what he is at this point. A game manager and a non-runner that presents very little value on a DFS slate, despite being an integral part of BYU being 3-0 to start the season. Kansas is allowing over 25 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season with both Luke Altmyer (Illinois) and Brendon Lewis (Nevada) finding success. Far from household names, but a good chunk of their fantasy production came on the ground against the Jayhawks. Slovis isn’t giving you that.
Bargain Bin – WR Darius Lassiter ($4,100) What I don’t know with this situation is if Lassiter’s move ahead of Kody Epps on the depth chart is performance or injury related. Epps did return from injury against Arkansas but played just 22 of 59 snaps and was targeted just once. Meanwhile, the Eastern Michigan transfer is now third on the team in targets (17) and receptions (10).
Pivot Play – TE Isaac Rex ($4,500) The only tight ends we normally consider in the $4k range and above are either Brock Bowers or someone from Iowa. That said, Rex is having a resurgent season now that he’s fully healthy, leading BYU in target (20). Kansas allowed 17 combined fantasy points to tight ends in their matchup with Illinois two weeks ago.
Best of the Rest – WR Chase Roberts ($4,500) Team leader in receptions (13) and second in targets (19). With Keanu Hill and Kody Epps both returning from injury in some capacity, we might see a bit more rotation with the BYU receivers. The only pass-catcher we feel truly confident in right now is Isaac Rex. Would only consider one BYU receiver in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($5,900) So much for Devin Neal being limited last week…smh. Beat writers never fail. Neal got the bulk of the carries, finishing with 89 yards and three scores on the ground. The BYU defense buttoned up in the second half against Arkansas last week, but still wound up allowing 22.3 fantasy points to RB1 AJ Green. Never a bad move investing in Kansas players in DFS playing in one of the most effective offensive schemes in the nation. 3rd in offensive success rate and 23rd in starting field position. Not surprise the Jayhawks are the 35th ranked scoring offense in the country.
Fade – RB Dylan McDuffie ($4,300) Established pecking order at the running back position with Neal and RB2 Daniel Hishaw Jr. Even when McDuffie has hit the field, he’s averaging just 2.9 YPC against FBS competition.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($4,400) Won’t be rostering Fairchild this week as his fantasy impact has been less than expected. Probably should get the senior tight end more looks, though, as he’s converted on eight of his nine targets. Giving a mention here because BYU allowed 17 fantasy points last weekend to Arkansas’ freshman tight end.
Pivot Play – QB Jalon Daniels ($8,400) Game totals suggest this won’t be a track meet so I probably would not include both Daniels and Devin Neal in a lineup together. Based on the CFFSite projections and pricing, Neal is the obvious choice. I would throw some caution there that the BYU front seven will probably end up being one of the better groups in the Big 12 and are ranked 22nd in rush D success rate as of now. Kansas’ beat writer highlighted Daniels over Neal as one of the most important Jayhawks in this matchup for that reason. The Cougars limited KJ Jefferson to just 14 fantasy points last week, though.
Best of the Rest – WR Corps. Almost an identical situation to last season. 15-14-14 across the board for the starting group of Kansas wideouts. The trio of Quentin Skinner, Lawrence Arnold and Luke Grimm comprise 54% of the team target share. Don’t have more than one Kansas WR in your lineup, and it’s a guessing game as to which one will be the primary benefactor that week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: TT -6
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: TT 30.5 – WVU 24.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 47% rain / 13 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Jerand Bradley ($5,900) Regardless of who’s quarterbacking the Red Raiders, Bradley is the clear top target on offense, leading the team in nearly every receiving category. Penn State WR1 Keandre Lambert-Smith had a massive performance against the WVU secondary with 28 fantasy points.
Fade – WR Drae McCray ($4,700) Swing and a miss in our preseason projections thinking that the Austin Peay transfer would have a major impact on the Texas Tech passing game. Snaps and targets have been trending downward since the opener, and Tech has a lot of options in the slot with Xavier White and Nehemiah Martinez supplying considerable depth. Was targeted just once against Tarleton State.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan Brown ($3,400) Another situation where I admittedly don’t know whether this is injury or performance related. Opening day starter Loic Fouonji was targeted just once against Tarleton State and his snap counts have been trending downward since Week 1. Brown, a former Kansas State transfer, got the starting nod and was rewarded with nine targets, resulting in 6-73-1. Could Brown be the new starter on the outside opposite Bradley? Looks likely.
Pivot Play – QB Tyler Shough ($8,100) A near 30-point projection at this price would usually result in Shough being a must-start. And as we’ve seen in the past, the senior QB is fully capable of slate-breaking performances. But it was a less than inspiring performance last week from Shough against Tarleton State, completing just 50% of his passes and eventually giving way to backup Behren Morton. Apparently, there were some boo bird at the stadium as well. We haven’t hit the point in the season where Tech is considering a switch, but a few more losses pile up and that’ll be in the conversation. After a shaky Week 1 performance against Penn State, West Virginia now ranks No. 2 nationally in pass D success rate. Guess you rise in the rankings after facing Phil Jurkovec.
Best of the Rest – WR Myles Price ($4,800) Slot receivers have generally found success in Zach Kittley’s Air Raid offense, and Price looks to be having a bounce back year now that he’s healthy, ranking second on the team in targets (20) with a receiving touchdown in all three games. RB Tahj Brooks ($5,700) is another high floor, low upside play as the clear RB1, but in an Air Raid system that is throwing the ball at a 59% clip – 17th highest in the country. West Virginia has allowed just one running back so far to hit double digit fantasy points against them.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Donaldson ($5,900) We know Donaldson’s the best DFS option for West Virginia, it’s a matter of if he’s playable or not while sharing the backfield with a backup quarterback. The numbers right now suggest yes as Tech is allowing 34.4 FPPG to opposing backfields, tied for the 20th highest mark in the country. West Virginia returned all five starting linemen this offseason, hence why they’re finding success on the ground early in the year.
Fade – QB Nicco Marchiol ($6,100) Curious to see what the former 4-star recruit brings to the table as he’ll get the starting nod in place of the injured Garrett Greene on Saturday. Marchiol could play well, but the issue is just how much West Virginia is running the football in the first month of the year at a 68% clip which is fourth highest in the nation. I’d steer clear of this passing attack as a whole.
Bargain Bin – WR Hudson Clement ($3,300) Quiet outing for the freshman last week with just one target. But Clement is just two weeks removed from a three-touchdown performance against Duquesne. There’s upside there if West Virginia is forced to throw.
Pivot Play – RB Jaylen Anderson ($5,100) Does West Virginia just lean all the way into the strength on offense and run the ball 40+ times a game like they did last week against Pitt, with backup Jaylen Anderson garnering 19 rushing attempts. As CJ Donaldson said this week to the media, it’s like running behind the Great Wall of China with this experienced offensive line. Now add in a quarterback getting his first career start and two running backs getting 15+ carries again this Saturday doesn’t seem that outlandish.
Best of the Rest – WR Devin Carter ($5,400) Can’t really invest in any of the passing game components for West Virginia with the run-heavy approach they’ve employed this season. If West Virginia is forced to take to the air, which is likely considering they’re a touchdown underdog, Carter is the established WR1 for the Mountaineers.
Injury Notes – QB Garrett Greene ($6,400) Said to be a game-time decision, but Greene has barely taken any reps this week in practice. All but likely that he’ll sit or play an emergency role on Saturday.
UCLA vs. Utah
Point-Spread: Utah -6
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Utah 29.5 – UCLA 23
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($6,400) I’ll preface by saying I probably have as much interest in UCLA players as I do Temple players on this slate. Aka, not much. As a near touchdown underdog, we’ll side with UCLA’s best receiver as the top play in Sturdivant who leads the team in every receiving category. It’s just a matter of if Dante Moore falters or not in such a high-profile matchup in just his second career start.
Fade – QB Dante Moore ($6,200) 15-point projection on a 14-game slate won’t get it done. I’m very interested to see how the freshman performs in his first Pac-12 game, but this is a road game against a Top 20 defense nationally. I’d rather roll out a Kyron Drones or Thomas Castellanos who are in the same price range and provide a higher floor as better runners.
Bargain Bin – WR Kyle Ford ($4,100) The former USC transfer has just eight targets this season but is third on the team in routes run and has played more offensive snaps than any wide receiver on the team. Extreme longshot as UCLA is likely forced into throwing the football more than they’d like as a road dog.
Pivot Play – RB Carson Steele ($6,300) Really not much of a discrepancy between Steele and TJ Harden ($6,000) from a rushing standpoint as their numbers are nearly identical. The difference between the two has been in the passing game where Steele has an edge (7) in targets over Harden (3). As we saw when Utah played Baylor two weeks ago, this is not an impenetrable defense for the Utes despite ranking 26th in rush D success rate. The issue is that this remains a split backfield between Steele and Harden, which is likely the case as the numbers would indicate.
Best of the Rest – WR Logan Loya ($4,800) Played just a handful of snaps last week against NC Central but has been the most effective receiver outside of Sturdivant through the first month. In UCLA’s most competitive game to date, Loya had a season-high six targets for 77 yards and a score. Three wide receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Utes this season, in large part because of game script where Florida and Baylor were forced to throw the ball.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($6,100) Frustrating would be an understatement to describe how fantasy owners are feeling about JQJ’s start to the season. Just five attempts in the opener against Florida, followed up by a promising 120-yard rushing performance against Baylor. Surely that would kickstart Jackson, facing an FCS opponent in Weber State. Just nine rushing attempts for 67 yards and a trip to the injury tent for the second time this season for Jackson. If you’re looking for a positive, Jackson is still averaging 4.91 yards after contact per carry this season and his forced a missed tackle on 33% of his attempts. He should benefit from QB1 being back in the fold (more on that later). UCLA is allowing just 6.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season but have faced two inept rushing offenses in Coastal Carolina and San Diego State.
Fade – QB Nate Johnson ($7,900) Johnson was one of the top plays of the weekend last Saturday with 24.8 fantasy points at his $4.5k salary. He now has a salary bump, facing one of the better defenses in the Pac-12. And if the Vegas line movement is correct, Johnson will be relegated to QB2 duties on Saturday (see below).
Bargain Bin – TE Thomas Yassmin ($3,300) I know that Rising being out downgrades the passing game significantly, but was hoping for better from Yassmin, particularly with Brant Kuithe not in the lineup. Don’t forget this was a tight end that scored five touchdowns in the last six games of 2022 with Cam Rising at quarterback. Hopefully the production picks up now in 2023.
Pivot Play – Rostering any Utah WR. Not an advisable strategy right now with leading receiver Money Parks garnering just 16% target share. That’s not appealing whatsoever when the top three receivers are all $5k and above. Parks, Mikey Matthews, Devaughn Vele and Mycah Pittman are all priced about $1k too high.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaylon Glover ($5,300) Increased role for Glover now that Micah Bernard is out for the season and has found the end-zone in each of the last two games. While we want to see what this backfield rotation looks like with Rising in the lineup, it has been mostly a RBBC to date with Jackson/Glover sharing the carries.
Injury Notes – QB Cam Rising ($9,300) As of Thursday morning writing this, we have Nate Johnson projected as the starting QB for Saturday. The Vegas line has grown to Utah -6 this week, though, leading to the notion that Cam Rising will be back in the lineup on Saturday as the Action Network’s Brett McMurphy tweeted out. Rising should not be considered at this pricing. TE Brant Kuithe ($3,400) shot down rumors this week that he was sitting out the season in preparation for the NFL Draft but doesn’t sound likely he’ll be available.
Colorado vs. Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -21
O/U Total: 70.5
Implied Score: Oreg 45 – CU 25.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 22% rain / 7 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Weaver ($7,200) Very interested to see how this Colorado offense performs on the road against a Top 10 opponent with now three games of tape on them. While the Buffs are still scoring at an incredible clip, I don’t think its an accident that the total yards accumulated each game have decreased since the opening week. Weaver remains the piece of this offensive I’m most interested in as the established WR1. Should be plenty of time to rack up garbage time numbers if Oregon jumps out to a double-digit lead as Vegas believes. Should benefit even further with Travis Hunter out of the lineup.
Fade – RB Anthony Hankerson ($5,500) Easy choice here. Hankerson is third on the depth chart for a team averaging less than four yards a carry on the season. And reinforcements might be on the way that could lower Hankerson’s standing on the depth chart.
Bargain Bin – WR Tarvish Dawson ($4,600) Dawson will get the starting nod opposite Weaver in the starting lineup with Travis Hunter out the next three weeks. The Auburn transfer hasn’t shown to be much of a downgrade either, converting on 11 of his 12 targets this season. Even with Hunter in the lineup for a portion of the game last week, Dawson wound up playing 72 of the 79 offensive snaps against Colorado State.
Pivot Play – QB Shedeur Sanders ($9,500) You’re going to see lower ownership on the Colorado side for some of the points I made above with regards to this matchup. This game sets up for exactly what we believed about the Colorado offense coming into the season. A lot of garbage time numbers against superior opponents like an Oregon. Colorado is already 9th in the country in pass play percentage and they’ve been winning in most contests. Now put them in a trailing position. I still like Colorado passing stacks this week.
Best of the Rest – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($7,300) Will likely see low ownership as the highest-priced Colorado receiver and most DFS players thinking that WR is the position to spend down on for this slate. Tied for the team lead in targets (32) and first on the team in receptions (26). Everyone gets a bump with Hunter out of the lineup. WR/TE hybrid Michael Harrison ($4,400) came out of nowhere last week, converting on all seven of his targets for 76 yards and two touchdowns. Not a conventional tight end at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, but surprising nonetheless as this offensive system has never utilized the position under Sean Lewis.
Injury Notes – RB Alton McCaskill ($3,800) Haven’t seen any official updates here outside of McCaskill has now shed the non-contact jersey in practice as of Tuesday. Does that mean he sees his first game action on Saturday? Would imagine that even if McCaskill does play, he won’t see a full workload given he hasn’t played in a live game in over a year. But that could limit the carries for other backs on the roster should he play. WR Javon Antonio ($4,800) is expected to play after shedding his non-contact jersey in practice.
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – QB Bo Nix ($9,600) If there is a time to spend up on Bo Nix, I think its this week. Colorado’s offense is good enough to force Nix to play four quarters, while the defense is allowing 23 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and are 113th in pass D success rate. Both teams are top 30 in pace, so we’ll see plenty of offensive plays in this one.
Fade – n/a. Don’t think there is a player on the Oregon side that is a complete fade. Even a third string running back like Jordan James ($5,600) should be considered at his pricing if you believe Oregon will blow out Colorado. Five rushing TDs in three games despite averaging just six carries a game.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,900) The junior tight end has largely been a non-factor this season with all of the depth Oregon possesses at receiver. I still think Ferguson is a longshot play, but here’s a stat for you to consider him. Colorado is giving up the most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends. Dallin Holker and Jared Wiley scored 18 or more fantasy points in their matchups with the Buffs.
Pivot Play – RB Bucky Irving ($7,500) 20-point projection for a running back at this pricing is close to a lock. Colorado is 122nd nationally in yards allowed on the ground this season (195.3). Two of Irving’s five career 100-yard rushing performances have come against ranked opponents. Colorado, if you weren’t aware, is ranked.
Best of the Rest – WR Troy Franklin ($6,900) Franklin is obviously the alpha in the room, with the team lead in every single receiving category. That is not hyperbole either. All four of Oregon’s receivers are in play this week and could even extend to two in the same lineup. Gary Bryant Jr. ($5,000) has run the most routes of any Oregon receiver through three games. Troy transfer Tez Johnson ($5,900) is finding his groove with Nix, now with three touchdowns in the last two games. Alabama transfer Traeshon Holden ($4,800) has seen the least action of the foursome but caught two touchdowns last week in the blowout of Hawaii. He’s a distant fourth among routes run and snaps played for Oregon receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ole Miss vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Ala -7
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Ala 31 – Miss 24
Weather: 87 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Watkins ($6,500) This play comes with a caveat. Pregame reports will be imperative here, because it sounds like one or multiple players might be returning from injury (see below). That could downgrade Watkins here, whom I’ve already invested heavily in his 48.5 receiving yards prop on the over (prior to reading the injury news unfortunately). Should the situation remain static, Watkins is the top option for Ole Miss at receiver, topping 100 yards in two of the three games played, and the team leader in targets.
Fade – RB Quinshon Judkins ($7,700) To be honest, neither side of this game intrigues me much from a fantasy perspective. We were duped last week into thinking that Judkins would miss the matchup with Georgia Tech, and then winds up rushing the ball 13 times. If we have a less-than-100 percent Judkins against the Alabama defense, we’re realistically not considering him in this spot. Might as well save $200 and roster Mar’Keise Irving.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Would not consider anyone below $5k unless we get some late injury updates.
Pivot Play – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,200) Dart is probably just an option in a game stack scenario where you think this game becomes a shootout. They’ll need to put a lot on Dart’s plate here with a potentially ailing Judkins, as he’s been incorporated more in the running game with 14 carries in each of the last two weeks. The Tide are 6th in pass D success rate in 2023, but it’s not as though they’ve been stifling, allowing 28 fantasy points to Quinn Ewers in Week 2.
Best of the Rest – WR Dayton Wade ($5,300) Similar to Watkins, Wade’s viability is all dependent on the injury situation. That duo has combined for 60% of the target share in the last two weeks with Tre Harris out of the lineup.
Injury Notes – This is the important part of the Ole Miss writeup. Lane Kiffin is tight-lipped when it comes to injuries. But scouring the message boards, it sounds like at least one of the Tre Harris, Cade Prieskorn and Zakhari Franklin triumvirate will play on Saturday. Not a guarantee, but these guys are nearing a return to the field.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($8,300) The backtracking by Nick Saban and the coaching staff this week with their comments to the media have been amusing. While nobody was overly impressed with Milroe, most believed the quick hook was too soon. And that was on full display against one of the worst defenses in the country last week against USF where the secondary options were a disaster. Ole Miss is an averaged defensive unit on the backend, ranked 69th in pass D success rate and did allow 30 fantasy points to Georgia Tech QB Haynes King last week.
Fade – WR JaCorey Brooks ($5,400) It’s not as though the receivers ahead of Brooks on the depth chart have been overly impressive, so maybe his playing time begins to increase at some point. But we can’t even consider Brooks until we see that happen. Fourth among routes run for Alabama receivers last week against USF and zero receptions for the entire season. What a fall.
Bargain Bin – TE Amari NiBlack ($4,000) Gave us a big ole goose egg last week, but as did most Alabama pass-catchers. The 6-foot-4 redshirt freshman had a better connection with Milroe, scoring a touchdown in each of the first two games.
Pivot Play – RB Roydell Williams ($5,900) I disagree with the projections in that we’re so quick to make the pivot from Jase McClellan to Roydell Williams as the top back but cannot deny how good the latter looked last week, rushing for 129 yards and a TD on 17 attempts. I could be very wrong here, but maintain my prediction this week that Alabama goes to what they should’ve done at the onset of the season – bully ball. I think we’ll see a heavy dosage of Williams, McClellan and Milroe in the running game to keep the Ole Miss O off the field.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Bond ($6,000) The sophomore slot receiver has consistently been the team’s top option at receiver all year. Team leader in targets (16) and a 63% conversion rate. WR Jermaine Burton ($6,600) is tied for the team lead in touchdowns (2) and is the top deep threat, averaging 21.2 YPC and an aDOT of 19.5. Threat to score at any moment.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: MD -7.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: MD 30.5 – MSU 23
Weather: 74 degrees / 9% rain / 14 mph winds
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – RB Roman Hemby ($7,900) The usage for Hemby is always concerning playing for a coaching staff that has historically utilized an RBBC in the backfield. And last week’s game against Virginia didn’t squash those concerns with three different running backs seeing nine or more attempts. Hemby continues to rack up the fantasy points, though, with a rushing touchdown in every game so far, and his frequent usage in the passing game with 10 targets is always appealing.
Fade – RB Antwain Littleton ($5,200) If this were a two-man backfield, we’d give a little more credence to rostering Littleton here. But Colby McDonald is putting himself in the conversation with 70+ yards and a touchdown in each of the last two games, now averaging eight yards per attempt for the season.
Bargain Bin – TE Corey Dyches ($4,700) Seemingly every year under Mel Tucker’s coaching tenure, the MSU defense has struggled to defend the tight end position. That trend is continuing in 2023 as the Spartans are fourth in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, giving up over 20 FPPG. Last week’s two touchdown performance from Jack Westover is weighted heavily in that number, but just more evidence that MSU can’t defend tight ends. Corey Dyches will be the best tight end MSU has faced to date.
Pivot Play – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($9,000) Unlikely to see a high ownership number because of pricing and just a 20-point projection. But the Spartans rank 100th in pass D success rate so far and did allow 34+ fantasy points and over 400 passing yards to Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. last week. Maryland is as deep as it’s ever been at wide receiver so no shortage of weapons for Baby Tua to throw to. The big issue here is that I don’t believe MSU can score with Maryland, and we’d probably need a shootout to happen for Tagovailoa to hit value.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Don’t have a strong read here of who the preferred options are in the Maryland passing game, mostly because of how much depth the Terps have at the position, rotating 5-6 receivers on the field so far. WR Jeshaun Jones ($6,500) is the top option for now, leading the team in targets (20) but Maryland has four different receivers with at least double-digit targets currently. Tai Felton ($4,900) doesn’t have a strong projection but leads all Maryland receivers in routes run. We might also have to factor in Tyrese Chambers ($5,500) back into the mix after returning from injury last week. I think you can play Taulia naked without any Maryland receivers because of how spread out the production is.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nathan Carter ($6,200) While rushing for just 48 yards against Washington, Carter saw over 90% of the carries that went to Michigan State running backs in the game. Backups Jalen Berger and Jaren Mangham are both nursing injuries, and interim head coach Harlon Barnett said both are more than a week away from returning. Expect to see a heavy dosage of Carter again vs. a mediocre Maryland rush defense.
Fade – QB Noah Kim ($7,700) Our current projection of 272 passing yards and 20 fantasy points for Kim is with the QB1 playing the entirety of the game. The chances of that happening are not 100% as Kim was replaced last week by promising backup Kaitin Houser. While Kim hasn’t played poorly, he’s also shown that he’s not the long-term solution at the position. I think there’s a good shot we see multiple quarterbacks play on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – TE Maliq Carr ($3,300) Production has been minimal, but Carr has seen at least seven targets in two of the three games played this season. Maryland is allowing just three fantasy points a game to opposing tight ends but have played two teams in Virginia and Charlotte that don’t incorporate the position in the passing scheme.
Pivot Play – WR Jaron Glover ($3,300) I remember a distinct comment from a Michigan State beat writer making after the opening week, calling the redshirt freshman receiver the WR1 for the Spartans. Glover didn’t do much last week (nobody did on MSU) but was tied for the team lead with seven targets. Seems like the top three at receiver has been solidified with Glover, Tre Mosley and Montorie Foster Jr. all playing at least 60% of the offensive snaps last week.
Best of the Rest – WR Tre Mosley ($5,900) Team leader in both targets (18) and receptions (11), but his lackluster usage downfield limits Mosley’s value. aDOT of just 9.0 yards means most of his targets come within the first down marker.
Injury Notes – See above on Jalen Berger and Jaren Mangham. Neither are expected to play.
