Florida vs. Mississippi State
Point-Spread: UF -5.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: UF 31.5 – MSU 26
Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijhah Badger ($5,000) With Wilson out, Badger likely functions as the team’s WR1 as he was a standout vs. A&M with 5-94-1 on six targets. WR Chimere Dike ($4,800) had nearly identical numbers to Badger with 6-91-1 on seven targets. Both are viable options this week, but we’d side closer to Badger if choosing one as he’s been the better player over the last several seasons.
Fade – QBs. The two-QB system eliminates both DJ Lagway and Graham Mertz from the conversation. My only hope is that they can continue to feed their talented collection of receivers, even without Wilson.
Bargain Bin – TE Arlis Boardingham ($3,900) Boardingham had his best performance of the season with five receptions on six targets last week vs. the Aggies. Just a hunch here that there’s more room for him to operate in the middle of the field without Eugene Wilson out there.
Pivot Play – RB Montrell Johnson ($5,900) Seven carries for negative yardage last week in a game that got away from Florida in the first half. Johnson will see less ownership as a result but could be in store for a bounce back performance if the Gators’ offense is motivated at all. Mississippi State is 95th in rush D success rate and allowed a combined 48 fantasy points to Cam Skattebo and Toledo’s Willie Shaw.
Best of the Rest – WR Aidan Mizell ($3,800) The talented sophomore caught a touchdown in Week 2 vs. Samford and saw his playing time double with Wilson out of the lineup.
Injury Notes – WR Eugene Wilson ($6,800) Wilson is still listed as questionable on DK, but he will not play this week after undergoing a surgical procedure this week. Early reporting says there is optimism that Wilson could return in the next month or so, and not a season-ending injury.
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – WR Kevin Coleman Jr. ($5,500) Coleman was a colossal bust at Louisville last year after transferring in from the FCS level. This offense under Jeff Lebby clearly suits him, now with a receiving touchdown in each of the first three weeks.
Fade – RBs We’re looking at a three-man rotation for a team in the Bulldogs that is 103rd in rush play success rate on offense. No thank you. FWIW – Keyvone Lee has been the starter, but it was Johnnie Daniels who was listed on the prop market after rushing for 56 yards last week vs. Toledo. If you’re dead set on having an MSU back in your lineup – why would you be – I would give Daniels a look.
Bargain Bin – TE Seydou Traore ($3,700) Feels like forever and a day ago that Traore was a standout freshman tight end catching 40 passes back at Arkansas State. He’s finally found his footing with the Bulldogs, now second on the team with 18 targets – 12 of which have come in the last two games. Florida has struggled to defend the tight end position so far, allowing double-digit fantasy points to the TE1 for Miami and Texas A&M – two teams that don’t really use the position all that much.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Mosley ($4,300) Mosley has been very proficient through three games with a 92% catch rate. The only issue here is more mouths to feed as MSU is starting to get healthy at the outside receiver spots. Creed Whittemore played 50% of the offensive snaps last week. After missing Week 1, Kelly Akharaiyi’s snap counts have increased progressively over the last two games. Our focus might be best to stay on just Coleman and / or Traore.
Best of the Rest – QB Blake Shapen ($8,000) No reason to me that Shapen should have a higher price than Haynes King, Riley Leonard or Garrett Greene here. So, he’s likely a fade, but maybe this Gators’ defense has quit on their head coach like they showed last week vs. A&M. Both Cam Ward and Marcel Reed scored 29 fantasy points each in their matchups with Florida.
Injury Notes – n/a
Marshall vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -39.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: OSU 45.5 – Mar 6
Weather: 79 degrees / 2% rain / 5 mph winds
Marshall:
Can’t play anyone on the Marshall side. You’d think an implied team total under a touchdown would lessen the salaries for Marshall players, but quite the contrary. The only possible options – WR Christian Fitzpatrick ($4,900) and Elijah Metcalf ($6,000) are at least $1k overpriced. Can we get some of those biscuits though, Coach Huff?
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Howard ($8,300) No consensus top selections among the QBs for the slate and Howard is reasonably priced here, averaging 23 FPPG over the first two games. Can’t help but stick with the guy we know is going to touch the ball every time on a down-to-down basis. In fairness to Marshall, they’ve been decent against the pass so far, ranking 25th in pass D success rate, and did limit Kyron Drones to just 16.5 fantasy points in their matchup with Virginia Tech.
Fade – TEs. Neither Gee Scott Jr. nor Will Kacmarek are priced to a point where if you roster them, they’ll kill your lineup with a goose egg. But that’s basically been their production to this point with a grand total of 12 combined receiving yards on four targets. Chip Kelly has utilized the position in the past, but it doesn’t appear the Buckeyes have a difference maker at the position.
Bargain Bin – RB James Peoples ($4,500) Assuming OSU blows out Marshall as they’ve done the first two opponents, Peoples is going to see extended run in the second half as he did against both Western Michigan and Akron, running for a touchdown in both contests. OSU does not have much depth beyond Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, so it’s unlikely they’re going to risk the top two rushers unless absolutely necessary.
Pivot Play – WR Emeka Egubka ($6,400) Feels like a good time to get the trusted senior into the touchdown stat column. Two big differences right now between Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith. Touchdowns obviously, with a 3-0 advantage for the freshman. Secondly, Egbuka is not getting the ball down the field with an aDOT of just 8.7 compared to 13.9 for Smith. Aside from that, targets are nearly identical, as is their time on the field.
Best of the Rest – WR Carnell Tate ($5,100) Tate is a distant third with just eight targets but has run more routes than both Egbuka and Smith for the season. Viable secondary option beyond the top two.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -5.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Cin 27 – Hou 21.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 2% rain / 4 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – RB Re’Shaun Sandford II ($4,200) We typically want the RB1 on a Willie Fritz-led offense. That was thought to be Parker Jenkins this year. But last week looked to be a turning of the page in the backfield as the true freshman led the way with 71 yards on 15 attempts. Cincinnati has not been great at defending the run thus far, ranked 98th in rush D success rate, and allowed a 38-point fantasy performance earlier in the year to Desmond Reid.
Fade – RB Parker Jenkins ($3,800) Swing and a miss here as we had Jenkins rated as a Top 50 college fantasy running back coming into the year after showing such promise as a freshman. Houston being bad at running the football would be one thing. But Jenkins has seemingly fallen to third in the pecking order after last week. Hitting the transfer portal in 3,2,1…
Bargain Bin – WR Mekhi Mews ($3,900) Mews was mostly a standout on special teams last week with a 75-yard punt return touchdown, but he’s been arguably the most consistent pass-catcher on the team as well with five targets in each of the first three games.
Pivot Play – QB Donovan Smith ($6,300) The Bearcats defense is average against the pass so far, ranking 61st in success rate and 97th in EPA per pass defensively. Both Eli Holstein and Brett Gabbert scored 20 or more fantasy points vs. Cincinnati in their respective matchups. We’ve seen some signs of life from Smith and the Houston passing game the last two weeks since their dismal showing in the opener.
Best of the Rest – WR Joseph Manjack ($4,800) Manjack is second on the team in routes run with two of the three receiving touchdowns. WR Stephon Johnson ($4,400) is first on the team in routes run and tied for third in targets (11). TE Maliq Carr ($3,200) played a season-high 67% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 3 with 32 receiving yards on two targets. Limit one Houston pass-catcher in any lineup you create, and probably best off not having any in your rosters.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – WR Xzavier Henderson ($6,700) Dominant start to the season for Cincinnati’s WR1 with at least 80 receiving yards and double-digit targets in all three games to start the season. No other wide receiver on the team has more than eight targets. And for that reason…
Fade – WR Tony Johnson ($4,800) We’ll pass on any Cincy wideout if the name Henderson is not on the back of their jersey. Johnson is, for some reason, the highest priced of the secondary receivers for the Bearcats, yet sixth among receivers in total routes run this season behind both Aaron Turner and Jamoi Mayes.
Bargain Bin – TE Joe Royer ($3,800) Royer and Tony Johnson’s salary should be flip-flopped. The former Ohio State transfer has been one of the better fantasy tight ends in college football to begin the year with touchdowns in each of the last two games. His 18 targets are good for second on the team.
Pivot Play – RB Corey Kiner ($5,200) Way too cheap for a running back that hit 20+ rushing attempts and over 100 yards in each of the last two games. I’d expect Kiner to have a high ownership percentage because of his pricing, which I’d then possibly consider fading for that reason, and the Houston defense has been stout to start. Just one running back hit double-digit fantasy points vs. the Cougars this season. That was last week with Rice’s Dean Connors who averaged less than three yards per attempt.
Best of the Rest – QB Brendan Sorsby ($7,300) Sorsby came back down to earth last week after a scorching start with just 12 fantasy points scored vs. Miami (Ohio). In fairness to the Indiana transfer, he was dealing with an ankle injury which could’ve hampered his performance. I’d lean more towards fading this week against Houston who currently ranks 6th in pass D success rate and hasn’t allowed a QB to score more than 17 fantasy points yet.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: WVU -2.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: WVU 30 – KU 27.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 9% rain / 6 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($7,400) Daniel Hishaw Jr’s absence from the lineup changes a lot for me. So, we’ll see whether he’s able to play Saturday or not as he’s reportedly dealing with an illness. But against UNLV last week, Neal had a season-high 23 carries with no other Kansas running back getting a rushing attempt. Guaranteed volume is what we want in CFB DFS.
Fade – TEs. Rinse and repeat here from previous writeups. 78% of the targets for Kansas this season have gone to the top three receivers. The tight ends have combined for just five catches and 48 yards.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody under $4.5k.
Pivot Play – QB Jalon Daniels ($8,000) The passing game should be better than its been, considering all the experience Kansas returned this year, but something is off. Regardless, West Virginia’s weakness on defense has been the secondary, ranked 129th in EPA per pass play defensively and 99th in pass D success rate. With Hishaw on the shelf, all but one rushing attempt last week went to either Neal or Daniels, so QB1s usage increased as well.
Best of the Rest – WRs If someone is getting the ball in the passing game, it’s one of Luke Grimm, Lawrence Arnold or Quentin Skinner, as has been the case for the previous 20 years it feels like. Skinner is the least appealing of the bunch, now with a 27% catch rate on 15 targets. Three different Pitt receivers scored double-digit fantasy points last week vs. West Virginia. And then the Harrison Wallace explosion in Week 1, going for 29 fantasy points. So one of Grimm, Arnold or perhaps Skinner could have a big day here.
Injury Notes – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,100) Hishaw remains questionable with an illness. Per Lance Leipold, “one day it sounds like it’s going to be good, but we’ll see.”
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Donaldson ($4,900) or RB Jahiem White ($5,300) The matchup is good against Kansas where WVU thrives on the ground, and the Jayhawks are 66th in rush D success rate. The issue is which running back to roster. Just read Neal Brown’s quote this week on the RB rotation – “We’re playing them both about even. Last week it was more between the tackles, and we need the size of CJ Donaldson. Jahiem White did some things really well, but he put the ball on the ground which you can’t do.” It’s a conundrum but Donaldson / White are cheap enough to where you need to consider one for your lineups.
Fade – WR Jaden Bray ($3,900) The least appealing of the West Virginia wide receiver options, playing just 33% of offensive snaps with only four targets in three games.
Bargain Bin – TE Kole Taylor ($3,600) Team leader in routes run and receiving yards (115), while tied for third in targets.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Greene ($7,800) We expected some regression this year from Greene whose output last year didn’t seem sustainable. And that’s come to fruition to an extent, but still a quarterback that has double-digit carries in two games this season. We saw last week what a running quarterback can do vs. the Jayhawks with UNLV’s Matthew Sluka rushing for 124 yards on 19 attempts. Kansas has been sound on the back end, though, ranking 8th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Traylon Ray ($3,800) Ray ran a season-high 23 routes last week and should get a production bump with Preston Fox likely out of the lineup. Mississippi State transfer WR Justin Robinson ($3,300), who had a sick touchdown grab against Pitt last week, should also see an uptick in playing time if Fox sits. WR Hudson Clement ($4,400) is third on the team in targets (12) and routes run.
Injury Notes – WR Preston Fox ($4,100) Fox is banged up per HC Neal Brown and will be a game-time decision.
NC State vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -20.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Clem 34 – NC St 13.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
NC Sate:
Top Play(s) – WR KC Concepcion ($7,600) Three wide receivers in two games have scored double-digit fantasy points against this Clemson defense, so it’s not impossible for KCC to have a big game. The sophomore receiver has double the number of targets and receptions as the next closest NC State pass-catcher. With a true freshman at quarterback starting this game, don’t be shocked to see Concepcion be involved in the backfield either as a runner.
Fade – RB Jordan Waters ($5,600) We’ll let the Vegas lines do the talking here. Waters was originally listed at 32.5 rushing yards this week for his prop bets. And we’re not sure he’s even the starter anymore with Hollywood Smothers and Kendrick Raphael making an impact the last two games. Fade the entire running back room in this matchup.
Bargain Bin – TE Justin Joly ($3,700) The short and intermediate passing game is where NC State needs to thrive to even have a chance at winning Saturday. That means Joly needs to have a big day. A distant second to Concepcion in targets, but second on the team in receptions (11) and routes run.
Pivot Play – WR DJ Collins ($4,400) I think we jumped the gun a bit on Noah Rogers thinking he’d be the next Ohio State transfer to thrive at a new destination. Maybe in time, but he’s been rotating in and out of the lineup with another transfer in Wesley Grimes. Collins is fourth in targets (10) and has seen the most consistent playing time of the boundary receivers for the Wolfpack, playing around 57% of the offensive snaps.
Best of the Rest – QB CJ Bailey ($5,700) First start, true freshman, on the road at Clemson. Bailey looked good last week with 180 total yards of offense, but this Clemson defense is as good as it’s been the last few seasons, and have been strong in the secondary. Carson Beck and Joey Aguilar, two standout fantasy performers last year, combined for just 33 fantasy points in their matchup with the Tigers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($6,000) Mafah will have the highest ownership on the slate at this price. Regardless of what the passing game showed the last time Clemson took the field, the game plan most weeks will be to hand the ball off to No. 7. No other running back has more than six carries for Clemson this season, and that includes two blowout scenarios.
Fade – WR Adam Randall ($3,400) Randall had a season-high six targets vs. App State in Week 2 but was outshined by the 5-star freshman WR Bryant Wesco Jr. ($4,200) who topped 100 yards on the day. PFF indicates that it was Wesco who started over Randall in Week 2. Dabo Swinney may ignore the transfer portal, but is he actually playing the more talented players on his roster finally?
Bargain Bin – WR Troy Stellato ($3,300) Pay attention to the injury report if Tyler Brown sits on Saturday. Stellato was targeted just twice but ran the most routes on the team in the win over Appalachian State.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,200) Can Cade Klubnik string together two good performances in a row? He scored over 20 fantasy points in back-to-back games at three different points last season. The issue is that the low marks sandwiched in between those performances were BAD. NC State is just 96th so far in pass D success rate and allowed 27 fantasy points to Nico Iamaleava two weeks ago.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($5,000) Williams barely played against App State in Week 2, yet still had an impact with a touchdown reception on three receptions in the first half. The junior wideout is the clear WR1, with the most targets and routes run in the Week 1 game vs. Georgia. Tight ends combined for 26 fantasy points for Tennessee in the win over NC State. TE Jake Briningstool ($4,800) is the secondary option in the passing game behind Williams.
Injury Notes – WR Tyler Brown ($3,900) Questionable with an ankle injury. Like others on this list, Brown isn’t worth the risk of playing even if he starts.
Arkansas vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: Aub -3
O/U Total: 58
Implied Score: Aub 30.5 – Ark 27.5
Weather: 84 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,900) Insane volume through the first two games of Armstrong’s season after missing Week 1, targeted 13 times against both Oklahoma State and UAB. His 13 targets last week vs. the Blazers accounted for 52% of the team’s target share. Five different receivers have already hit double-digit fantasy points against Auburn this season. That includes a pair of average passing attacks in Cal and New Mexico as well.
Fade – Anyone beyond the Top 6. Between the three starting receivers and tight end Luke Hasz, that foursome combines for over 60% of the targets for the Hogs. 88 of the 118 total carries this season have gone to either Taylen Green or Ja’Quinden Jackson. Until the injury bug hits at some point, there’s condensed production for the Razorbacks so no need to spend on anyone besides the top six.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Hasz ($3,200) Unsure why Hasz hasn’t had the impact we thought he’d have in the preseason – maybe his injury last season is still impacting him? Just seven targets combined in three games when he averaged at least five per game a year ago. Still a very cheap salary for a player with Hasz potential. At some point, defenses will start doubling Armstrong, right?
Pivot Play – WR Tyrone Broden ($5,000) Broden was shut out last week on six targets as the entire offense was off against UAB. The former Bowling Green transfer is still averaging seven targets per game with the most routes run on the team. At some point, a big play will happen for Broden with an aDOT of nearly 17 yards.
Best of the Rest – QB Taylen Green ($7,500) Taylen Green looked like the second coming of Lamar Jackson under Bobby Petrino through the first two games. Then he started 1-of-8 with an interception last week against UAB. Truly a boom or bust type player, but we love the rushing usage regardless with double-digit attempts in every game. The Auburn secondary is average by SEC standards, ranked 81st in EPA per pass play defensively and 78th in success rate.
Injury Notes – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($7,200) As of Wednesday, Jackson was listed as probable on the depth chart. Expect him to play, obviously, but we’re always tentative given how last year went with the Utes. Auburn is average across the board defensively, ranking 69th in rush success rate.
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – RB Jarquez Hunter ($6,300) Honestly by default here, and we’re not advocating including any Auburn players in your lineups this week. That’s not because Arkansas’ defense is the 1980 Pittsburgh Steelers either. The production is so spread out, that we’ll side with the guy we know touches the ball in Hunter, coming off a 152-yard performance against New Mexico. The issue with going all in on Hunter is the Arkansas run D, which limited Ollie Gordon two weeks ago, as the Razorbacks are 13th in rush D success rate.
Fade – RB Damari Alston ($4,900) Good player that would be a fantasy stud at UAB or some other G5 location. In games with tight spreads, though, Alston will not get double-digit carries unless injury occurs.
Bargain Bin – WR Camden Brown ($4,400) If Coleman were to sit, it would be Brown taking his place in the starting lineup. The junior receiver led the Tigers last week with five targets and a touchdown vs. New Mexico. TE Rivaldo Fairweather ($3,900) could also be an option against an Arkansas defense that giving up the 15th most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends through three games.
Pivot Play – WR Keandre Lambert-Smith ($6,100) or Robert Lewis ($5,200) Auburn spreads the football around as much as an SMU so realistically none of the Tigers’ receivers appeal to us that much. But KLS does lead the team in both targets (13) and routes run. Lewis, the Georgia State transfer, could be a matchup play against this Arkansas secondary. While its probably too early for trends, the slot receivers have found success against this Razorback defense with Amare Thomas and Brennan Presley combining for 47 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – QB Hank Brown ($7,000) Impressive performance from Brown in his first career start with four passing touchdowns…. against one of the worst scoring defenses in the country in New Mexico. Different challenge this week against an SEC foe, but the Arkansas secondary is the team’s weakness and will be down one starting defensive back.
Injury Notes – WR Cam Coleman ($5,200) Questionable with a shoulder injury that kept him out last week. Auburn doesn’t throw the ball enough to Coleman to make it worth the risk in trotting him out in your DFS lineups even if he does play.
UCLA vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -24.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: LSU 40 – UCLA 15.5
Weather: 87 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
UCLA:
There’s a strong chance this thing goes off the rails for first-year coach DeShaun Foster and the Bruins. It started with the Media Day presser where Foster was nervous and unprepared. Now there’s a Buffalo Wild Wings promotion deal for any UCLA win they get in 2024. Safe to say confidence is high BWW won’t be giving away that many wings. And maybe we’re getting the answer to that old question of was Eric Bieniemy’s success only because of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. The Bruins are dead last in the Big Ten in total offense, scoring offense and 111th in total offensive success rate. A trip to Death Valley to face LSU does not seem like the cure, no matter how questionable this Tigers’ defense may be. WR Rico Flores Jr. ($5,200) and J. Michael Sturdivant ($4,300) are the only players under mild consideration from the UCLA side as the team leaders in routes run among the receivers.
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($8,100) LSU has a plethora of WRs that Nuss can distribute to and may still rotate in the backfield, even after last week’s emergence of a true freshman stud. So, we like Nuss as the team’s top play against a UCLA secondary that was carved up by Kurtis Rourke last week with four touchdowns. Difficult to imagine LSU’s QB1 not getting at least 20 points in this matchup where the Bruins are 115th in pass D success rate and 113th in EPA per pass play defensively.
Fade – RB Kaleb Jackson ($4,200) Caden Durham is what we wanted Kaleb Jackson to be. There’s a chance Jackson hits value if this turns into the blowout we expect, but seemed pretty clear last week that the sophomore back has fallen to third on the depth chart, playing a season low 22% of the snaps.
Bargain Bin – RB Caden Durham ($4,200) The way that Durham does not hit value this week is if Brian Kelly and the coaching staff don’t want to throw too much on Durham’s plate and they continue with the nonsensical three-man rotation. Not sure how that happens after last week with 98 rushing yards and two scores vs. South Carolina. The run defense has been surprisingly good for UCLA to start, ranking 38th in success rate. Though that was against an Air Raid offense in Hawaii and an Indiana team that doesn’t have any above average RBs.
Pivot Play – WR Aaron Anderson ($4,200) Anderson was spotlighted by an LSU beat writer as a player we should see more of this week, as the former Alabama transfer has settled into the starting slot receiver role over Zavion Thomas. Five receptions in six targets in each of his first three games. He’s underpriced here and our second-highest projected receiver behind Kyren Lacy.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyren Lacy ($8,100) I like the idea of spending down for another LSU receiver a bit more this week as we indicated above, but still leads the team in nearly every statistical category, including the most important one with five touchdowns. WR CJ Daniels ($5,600) has seen an uptick in production in recent weeks and is LSU’s team leader this season in routes run. I would not discount RB Josh Williams ($4,600) here as the veteran will still get RB2 reps at least behind Durham. He’s tied with Durham with seven red-zone carries. As long as TE Mason Taylor ($4,700) is a sub-$5k option, he’s always in our player pool. Second on the team in both routes run and targets (21) while tied with Lacy with 17 receptions.
Injury Notes – WR Chris Hilton ($5,400) Still questionable with an ankle injury and won’t be rushed back with how the LSU receiving room is performing.
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: TT-3.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: TT 31.5 – ASU 28
Weather: 82 degrees / 22% rain / 12 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Skattebo ($7,300) Pretty straightforward here. Texas Tech is average against the run defensively, ranked 60th in success rate. And Skattebo is second in the nation in rushing attempts per game behind only Kyle Monangai.
Fade – WR Jake Smith ($4,100) Arizona State trots out three receivers and three receivers only in competitive games. Smith played just 8% of the offensive snaps last week against Texas State. Tyson, Guillory and Stovall are the only ASU WR options.
Bargain Bin – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,600) Not sure if it was something schematic with what Texas State was going defensively, but the Sun Devils really got the tight ends involved in the passing game last week, namely Metayer who was targeted a season-high seven times. That’s two double-digit fantasy performances in three games.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Guillory ($5,000) I’m not sure Guillory is any good at this point with just four receptions for minimal yardage in the first three games. He came in as a highly-touted transfer out of Idaho State but has yet to make an impact through 15 games. That said, Guillory is still on the field a ton, playing nearly 88% of the offensive snaps. That might change in future weeks if he’s not productive, though.
Best of the Rest – QB Sam Leavitt ($8,500) Running quarterback and a high game total will always be an option in DFS. Tech rebounded last week with a masterful performance against Chandler Morris, but that was coming off a game in which Washington State’s John Mateer rushed for 197 yards on the ground. Leavitt has similar running abilities. WR Jordyn Tyson ($5,800) had 120 and a score against Texas State on Thursday with no other Arizona State wideout making a difference. Tyson has 21 targets on the year. Next closest ASU receiver has just eight.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($7,800) A healthy Tahj Brooks is one of the best RBs in the country. We’ll still side with him as our top play here, but be wary of the Arizona State run defense, which is 21st in success rate. Texas State’s Ismail Mahdi had a relatively quite day last week against the Sun Devils with just 68 yards and held out of the end-zone. Brooks is the top play, but not a smash play.
Fade – WR Micah Hudson ($3,300) I’m sure the 5-star freshman will get some ownership from those that see 5-star and the 43 yards he had last week in the blowout of North Texas. That also came in the second half, game in hand, and from the arm of Tech’s third string QB.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Douglas ($4,100) or TE Jalin Conyers ($4,000) Douglas is third on the team in targets (18) and routes run. Conyers has converted on all 11 of his targets with two receiving touchdowns. Steady progression from Conyers each week, going from 22% to 42% to then 53% last week of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($8,400) Second-highest priced QB on the slate is a bit rich for Morton, though he’s looking improved in 2024, now with 10 touchdowns in three games, completing nearly 70% of his throws. There are areas to exploit in this Arizona State secondary as we saw a week ago with Jordan McCloud posting 30 fantasy points in the loss to ASU. The Sun Devils are 97th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Kelly ($6,500) The Washington State transfer has fit seamlessly into the Tech offense, leading the team with 289 yards and 21 receptions on 27 targets, while playing 91% of his snaps in the slot. Important since that is the premier position in the Zach Kittley offensive system. WR Coy Eakin ($5,700) hit value last week with a 70-yard touchdown reception but was targeted just once in the blowout. Was averaging nine targets per game in the first two weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami (Ohio) vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -27.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: ND 36 – MOH 8.5
Weather: 84 degrees / 5% rain / 7 mph winds
Miami (OH):
Just a single play on the Miami (Ohio) side in senior WR Cade McDonald ($6,000). Production matches the price tag, but matchup dictates probably fading. Just a two-game sample size in 2024, yes, but we have a multi-year sample size of Miami (Ohio) receivers being big-time fantasy producers over the years. McDonald appears to be next in line, now with 20 targets in two games with back-to-back 100-yard performances.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiyah Love ($5,500) Miami (Ohio) was expected to have one of the best defenses in the MAC entering 2024. And they still could be, but this isn’t the start they envisioned. Points per game allowed isn’t the issue, but the RedHawks are giving up chunks on the ground. Corey Kiner ran for 100+ last week. Backup Evan Pryor averaged over 25 yards per carry. And even in Week 1, one of the worst running backs in the P4 last year in Northwestern’s Cam Porter averaged close to five yards per attempt. Love should be good for 60 yards and a touchdown as a floor.
Fade – WR Jaden Greathouse ($5,500) The game was over before it started in West Lafayette last Saturday, but Greathouse really saw his playing time take a hit, playing just 17% of the offensive snaps vs. Purdue. Tied for the team lead in targets, but the production doesn’t match the salary at this point. He’ll be fighting for snaps now with Jordan Faison back healthy.
Bargain Bin – RB Jadarian Price ($4,500) ND surely won’t look down on a second MAC opponent in a month, will they? Doubtful. Price is clearly the RB2 behind Love at this point but rushed for a touchdown in both of Notre Dame’s wins this season.
Pivot Play – QB Riley Leonard ($7,700) What a difference a week makes. Last week we were fading Leonard under the premise that he was about to be replaced by backup Steve Angeli. Now, Leonard is considered one of the slate’s top plays. Folks were targeting Leonard’s rushing prop last week, hoping to hammer the under, as he’s not been 100% healthy since the Texas A&M game reportedly. Good thing I missed out on it, as Leonard went for 100 and three touchdowns on the ground on 11 attempts vs. Purdue. The RedHawks have limited a pair of dual threats in a similar mold of Leonard in Mike Wright and Brendan Sorsby to just 30 fantasy points combined, but they do not grade out well in the secondary, ranking 107th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – Pass-catchers. Not worth your salt at this point. There is no target hog. Top two receivers are tied for just 15% of the target share. Notre Dame is 80th in pass play percentage and have thrown just two touchdowns all year. Unlikely that increases dramatically with the potential game script here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia Tech vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -9.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: UL 33.5 – GT 24
Weather: 87 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($7,600) Georgia Tech played 12 regular season games last season. King scored 20 or more fantasy points in every single one. While that streak was broken against Florida State in Week 0, King is back on track with 29 or more fantasy points in each of the last three games. We don’t know how good this Louisville defense is yet having played two cupcakes to start the year. Very reasonable price for a dual-threat QB who will need to play the entire game.
Fade – WR Christian Leary ($3,400) The former 4-star Alabama transfer has been relegated to special teams and blowout duties only. Did play a season-high 32% of snaps last week against VMI in the 59-7 blowout. The week prior in a competitive game against Syracuse? Just 7% of offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik Rutherford ($4,800) A relative bargain here for Rutherford considering he has more targets on the year than his counterpart WR Eric Singleton ($5,000), having scored a touchdown in three of the four games this year. Rutherford is averaging career highs in 2024 at 13.0 yards per catch and 4.13 yards per route run. This duo combines for 44% of Georgia Tech’s target share so it’s not outrageous to stack them together in a lineup in GPP.
Pivot Play – RB Jamal Haynes ($6,200) Toss last week’s blowout into the trash can. Rushing touchdowns in each of the first three weeks for Haynes, who is also a perfect 10-for-10 out of the backfield as a receiver. Louisville did allow a 100-yard rusher in Week 1 (yes, it was the quarterback).
Best of the Rest – WR Chase Lane ($4,200) Lane is second on the team in routes run, though is averaging just under three targets per contest. TE Avery Boyd ($3,800), a converted receiver, has run about a third of the routes that Lane has, yet far more effective with 11 receptions and two TDs on 14 targets. Maybe Tech should have Boyd on the field more?
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Ja’Corey Brooks ($4,800) Severely underpriced receiver that’ll probably have one of the higher ownership rates on the slate as a result. The once afterthought at Alabama is having a renaissance season thus far with 13 receptions on 15 targets, more than double the next closest Louisville receiver. As we preached all offseason, the Jeff Brohm WR1 is undefeated – it was just about determining who that would be. Brooks is the guy.
Fade – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,500) After entering the portal this offseason, Huggins-Bruce rejoined the team back in August. No acclimation period needed as he already knows the offense, but Louisville seems to be sorting out its slot position still, rotating in Jadon Thompson and Cataurus Hicks to see who the best option is. Thompson played 42% of the snaps in the opener and is listed atop the depth chart, so he’d get the slight nod if looking to roster Louisville’s WR3.
Bargain Bin – RB Maurice Turner ($4,200) Louisville will rotate four different running backs as indicated in the first two weeks, though the veteran Turner is the team’s starter. Realistically, I think you can trot out any one of Turner, Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown or even Duke Watson and not burn a lineup considering how good each has been thus far. We think passing game with Jeff Brohm, but the Louisville run game has been elite the last 15 games or so, now ranked 4th in EPA per rush play. The combined yards per carry average right now amongst the top four is over 10 YPA. Unreal.
Pivot Play – WR Chris Bell ($4,000) It feels established at this point that Brooks is WR1, but we still have just two games of evidence to show that. Small sample. As we stated above, Louisville doesn’t have a trust third option right now in the passing game, so the BB duo is getting heavy on-field reps, with both playing over 80% of the snaps in the Week 2 matchup with Austin Peay.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Shough ($7,200) Talent and fantasy production has never been the issue with Shough – it’s been all about health. Prior to the season-ending injury last year, Shough was averaging over 30 fantasy points per game. Strong start to 2024 with 50 fantasy points combined in two games. Tech is vulnerable through the air as showcased in Week 2 against Kyle McCord, allowing 300+ yards. The Jackets rank 104th in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech
Point-Spread: VT -3.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: VT 25 – Rutg 21.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 11% rain / 6 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Kyle Monangai ($7,600) We know Monangai is Rutgers’ top play, now ranked fifth among FBS running backs in fantasy points per game. And we know the volume will be there, very likely getting 20+ touches on Saturday. So can Rutgers run on the Virginia Tech defense. Early returns suggest yes. The Hokies are 65th in rush D success rate after allowing 23 fantasy points to Vandy’s Sedrick Alexander, and then two Old Dominion running backs scored double-digit fantasy points against VT.
Fade – QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($6,400) Rutgers quarterback – enough said. Virginia Tech struggled with Diego Pavia, allowing 32 fantasy points to the Vandy QB, but Kaliakmanis isn’t nearly the athlete that Pavia is.
Bargain Bin – TE Kenny Fletcher ($3,500) Fletcher is a converted defensive end moving to tight end that has now caught two touchdowns in as many games played.
Pivot Play – WR Dymere Miller ($4,200) Miller is a Monmouth transfer with a ton of experience with over 175 career receptions. Strong start at his new school, now tied for the team lead in routes run and a team-high 12 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Long ($3,900) and WR Ian Strong ($3,500) Early on in the season, Rutgers is primarily running 11 personnel with three wide receivers, one tight end and one running back. Miller is the top option but Long and Strong (there’s a joke in there somewhere) are WR2 and WR3, both on the field over 60% of the time, with Long tied with Miller in routes run. This should obviously go without saying, but maximum one Rutgers WR in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaylin Lane ($5,700) With Jennings missing a good chunk of last week, Lane had his best performance of the year with 106 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. We’d limit our exposure here if Jennings does wind up playing. But if Jennings sits, the target share was intriguing for Lane last week at nearly 40%.
Fade – RB Malachi Thomas ($4,000) Seems as though the game plan in practice each week will be for Bhayshul Tuten to be in bubble wrap during the week and unleash on Saturdays. If Tuten were to sit, I’d expect Drones to lead the team in carries, not Thomas.
Bargain Bin – TE Benji Gosnell ($3,500) Gosnell has started in place of the injured Nick Gallo, playing the second most snaps on the team behind Kyron Drones at 78%. Was targeted six times in Va Tech’s most pass-heavy game script of the season in Week 1 vs. Vandy.
Pivot Play – WR Da’Quan Felton ($4,200) Especially if Jennings does not play, I think this is a fair and honest price for Felton with the production he has in 2024, but some upside as well. Remember how Felton closed last season, averaging 20.1 FPPG over the last five weeks, scoring 23 fantasy points or more three times in that span. For whatever reason, Felton’s aDOT is way down this season at just 9.8 when it was in the mid-teens the previous three years.
Best of the Rest – QB Kyron Drones ($8,100) If Tuten were to be out Saturday, the top designation would go to Drones as we’d anticipate he would dominate the volume, both from a rushing and passing standpoint with the Hokies lacking a decent RB2. We don’t have a good idea as to how good Rutgers is offensively having played just Akron and Howard in its first two games, but rank 3rd in pass D success rate nationally. The secondary for Rutgers did its job, even if it was inferior competition.
Injury Notes – RB Bhayshul Tuten ($7,700) Report came out on Tuesday that Tuten was limited in practice with a blue non-contact jersey. The same report that came out last week and the senior running back wound up running it 21 times for 115 yards and a pair of scores. We’ll be monitoring practice reports throughout the week. WR Ali Jennings ($3,800) is questionable after tweaking something vs. Old Dominion.
USC vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: USC -5.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: USC 26 – UM 20.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 5% rain / 7 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – n/a. Truthfully not a play on the USC side that is a must-have. This will be Miller Moss’ first true road test against a Top 10 defense (sadly not Top 3 anymore like I thought) and only has a projection of 19 fantasy points. Six different receivers get equal playing time. And Woody Marks is not cheap with a bad matchup.
Fade – RB Woody Marks ($7,500) I count at least eight running backs with a higher projection and lower salary than Marks this week. Strong start to the year for the Mississippi State transfer with three rushing TDs in two games, but this is by far his toughest matchup to date against a Michigan defense that is 7th in Rush D success rate. I’d throw WR Duce Robinson ($4,200) on the fade list as well, playing just 22% of snaps in the only other competitive matchup USC had this year against LSU.
Bargain Bin – TE Lake McRee ($3,800) Really surprised to see that a tight end is second on the team in targets and leads the team with 130 receiving yards since the position hasn’t really been a focal point ever under Lincoln Riley. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Texas tight end Gunnar Helm had a career day vs. the Wolverines with 98 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions.
Pivot Play – WR Zachariah Branch ($5,900) Team leader in targets (11) and second in routes run behind only McRee. Wide receivers have found success against this Michigan defense when they’re not guarded by Will Johnson. Branch plays 78% of his reps from the slot so he’ll be guarded by a nickel or safety. If Pro Football Focus’ projected lineups are accurate, it would be WR Kyron Hudson ($5,500) being guarded by Johnson. WR Ja’Kobi Lane ($5,700) or WR Makai Lemon ($4,800) would be defended by Michigan’s CB2 which has been a weak spot in 2024.
Best of the Rest – QB Miller Moss ($8,200) There is no elite fantasy QB on the slate, so you can mix and match in GPPs. That said, there’s at least four quarterbacks with lower salaries that we’d choose over Moss who faces a Michigan defense that is 47th in pass play success rate. Not as good a number as we expected from the Wolverines, but this is still a very good secondary Moss is facing in his first true road test of his career.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Kalel Mullings ($7,000) So long as both are healthy, the Michigan staff will continue to trot out both Kalel Mullings and RB Donovan Edwards ($8,000) in a 50-50 split situation. Production wise, these salaries should be flipped between the two as Mullings is averaging more than three yards per carry more than his backfield counterpart. Edwards does hold a 3-1 advantage in red zone carries.
Fade – Michigan WR. Sure, there could be some targets opening up if Colston Loveland doesn’t play. And we’re certain Alex Orji can pop a 50+ yard play once or twice while USC stuffs 9-10 defenders in the box. But it’s a guess as to who that would be and the volume will be LOW.
Bargain Bin – TE Marlin Klein ($3,600) This is only a potential play if Colston Loveland sits. Klein drew rave reviews in fall camp as the heir apparent to Loveland next year when he heads off to the NFL. The 6-foot-6 junior out of Germany caught three passes for 43 yards vs. Arkansas State after Loveland exited due to injury. WR CJ Charleston ($3,500) is an FCS transfer that has seen his stock rise a bit the last two weeks due to his blocking ability. He played over 50% of the snaps in both Week’s 2 and 3.
Pivot Play – QB Alex Orji ($6,700) Don’t expect there to be any rotation here, it’s very likely they’re going to give the entire game to Alex Orji barring a drastic turn of events. While there’s much to be desired as a passer – Orji threw a 9-yard pass at a receiver’s feet in the Fresno State game – we’re always going to be mildly interested in a QB that could run the ball 15+ times on Saturday. The risk is displayed perfectly with his prop bet that opened on FanDuel at 95.5 yards on Tuesday.
Best of the Rest – WR Semaj Morgan ($5,500) I’m not playing a Michigan receiver with Orji at quarterback, but if I were forced to, Morgan would be the top option, leading all Wolverine wideouts with 15 targets. He gets a slight boost if WR Tyler Morris ($5,000) misses he second consecutive game.
Injury Notes – TE Colston Loveland ($6,600) Writing this on Tuesday so no update as to whether or not Loveland will play on Saturday. The future first-round draft pick in the NFL avoided major injury from all accounts so may not be a long-term ordeal beyond Saturday.
Utah vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: Utah -2
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: Utah 27 – OK St 25
Weather: 90 degrees / 28% rain / 11 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – TE Brant Kuithe ($6,200) Utes’ insiders, albeit some of the most biased “reporters” out there, are continuing to suggest that Rising will play Saturday despite an injury to his throwing hand. When Rising plays, Kuithe is automatically the Utes top play as evidenced by his Week 1 performance with three touchdowns in the opener. Oklahoma State allowed 13 fantasy points in Week 2 to another stud tight end in Luke Hasz.
Fade – A WR beyond Money Parks or Dorian Singer. Against Utah State last week, no wide receiver on the team played more than 26% of the team’s offensive snaps that’s not named Money Parks or Dorian Singer. You’re better off risking the backup running backs or tight ends as passing game components than a WR3.
Bargain Bin – n/a. No player under $5k is worth having in a lineup.
Pivot Play – QB Cam Rising ($7,900) There are about four quarterbacks on the DK slate that I’d rather roster over Rising with a cheaper salary, so I’d have minimal exposure here. It’s not the worst matchup against an Oklahoma State secondary that has already allowed 26 fantasy points to another dual threat in Taylen Green earlier in the year. The Cowboys are just 70th in pass D success rate and 71st in EPA per pass play. If playing Rising, you need to pair with a Kuithe/Parks/Singer option in GPPs as that combination will be extremely low owned.
Best of the Rest – RB Micah Bernard ($5,800) There’s a better chance of this game being a defensive battle than a shootout, so I won’t have much exposure on either side here. And I hate having Bernard as a suggested Utah play, considering he has a very low floor with already one game this season below 40 rushing yards. But cannot deny the last two weeks where he’s got a stranglehold on the RB1 spot, rutwshing for 100+ against Baylor and Utah State. Oklahoma State is 70th in rush D success rate, already allowing a 30+ point performance to Ja’Quinden Jackson two weeks ago.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – WR Brennan Presley ($7,400) Knowing that Oklahoma State will need to get rid of the ball quickly against this Utah pass rush, this feels like a Brennan Presley type game. The senior slot man has found the end-zone in each of the first three games and is sixth nationally in targets (35).
Fade – QB Alan Bowman ($8,300) Utah is not Tulsa. The Utes already lead the Big 12 in sacks with 11 in three games, bad news for an immobile QB like Bowman. Bryson Barnes did find some moderate success against Utah last week with 223 yards and three scores, but also tossed two INTs with multiple sacks against him. He was also aided by 36 yards and a TD on the ground which Bowman cannot provide. Utah is 9th in pass D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Talyn Shettron ($3,800) Those that read our DFS writeups know that it’s primarily the top three wideouts for Oklahoma State and no one else. That was not the case in the blowout of Tulsa where 4-star sophomore Talyn Shettron went for 110 yards and a score on six targets. The problem here is Shettron is not a slot receiver, playing 86% of his snaps outside. So, if he’s in the game, that means De’Zhaun Stribling or Rashod Owens are not.
Pivot Play – RB Ollie Gordon ($9,700) At $9.7k, Gordon is closer to a fade than a play this weekend given the recent struggles of the Oklahoma State running game. Shocking considering the return of Gordon and all five starters on the offensive line so continuity should be a strength here. Not the case as Oklahoma State is 127th in rush success rate offensively. The Utes have been better against the pass than the run, allowing 100+ yards last week to a Utah State running back. This might just be the week to buy Gordon in GPPs as his ownership will be the lowest it’s been in a year and a half.
Best of the Rest – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($5,900) or Rashod Owens ($4,700) Inauspicious start to the year for Owens who is a distant fourth on the team with 11 receptions on 18 targets and just a single TD. Still leads the Cowboys this season in routes run. There are weeks where you could roster multiple OSU receivers in a lineup together with how much they’re on the field with minimal rotation, but probably just one this week max, considering the opponent.
Injury Notes – n/a
