Duke vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: KU -7.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: KU 36.5 – Duke 29
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($6,000) How many college basketball references are we about to hear this week? Leonard has been a pleasant surprise this season considering he was in a quarterback competition all through fall camp, now averaging 25.5 FPPG and completing over 73% of his passes. Against the only “formidable” opponent he’s faced this season, Leonard only completed 54% of his passes with one touchdown on the road at Northwestern. Numbers suggest Leonard is in play this week, facing a Kansas defense that is allowing 32.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 110th in pass play success rate.
Fade – QB Jordan Moore ($5,000) Funny to think that Moore was in a battle during fall camp with Leonard for the starting quarterback job. The sophomore has made a very successful transition to receiver, leading the Blue Devils with 13 receptions on 14 targets and has found the end-zone in each of the first three games. DraftKings lists him at quarterback unfortunately so he’s off the table.
Bargain Bin – RB Jordan Waters ($3,300) There should not be an $1,800 difference between Waters and Jaylen Coleman. The Blue Devils are fourth in the ACC in rushing, and this is a near 50-50 split between the two with Coleman’s 29 attempts to Waters’ 25 attempts.
Pivot Play – WR Jalon Calhoun ($6,100) Calhoun was a popular waiver wire selection in CFF last week, but put up a dud with a goose egg on a single target. Have to think the opponent played a part here with the 49-20 blowout over North Carolina A&T. In the two games leading up, Calhoun was tops on the team with 16 targets.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaylen Coleman Like Jordan Moore, Coleman has also been a pleasant surprise where most counted him out of the running for the starting job. The junior has responded by leading the team in rushing and found the end-zone every week thus far. Of the two defensive components, Kansas has been better defending the run so far, allowing just 3.4 YPC and are 72nd in rush play success rate. Dead last in the Big 12, though, so we do believe Duke will find some running room. Aside from Moore and Calhoun, WR Eli Pancol ($3,500) is the third option in the Blue Devils’ passing game with seven receptions on 11 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,900) Daniels leads the most efficient offense in the country, scoring 53 PPG yet are just 118th in offensive plays run this season. Duke’s pass defense looks good on the surface, but who wouldn’t after having played Temple and North Carolina A&T. Against Northwestern, the Blue Devils allowed 435 passing yards and two touchdowns to Ryan Hilinski. After rushing for 123 yards and two scores last week vs. Houston, Daniels now leads the Jayhawks with 237 yards on the ground.
Fade – WR Lawrence Arnold ($6,500) Too expensive for a wide receiver on a team that is 20th in the country in rush play percentage (60%) and is averaging just 36 receiving yards per game through three weeks. Targets are spread fairly evenly amongst Kansas’ top three wideouts in Arnold, Luke Grimm ($5,600) and Quentin Skinner ($4,400), so if choosing one, I’d probably look towards the discounted options. Skinner is tops among the trio with an aDOT of 19.6.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RBs Like the Blue Devils, Kansas is distributing the volume in the backfield between Devin Neal ($7,200) and Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,500) so evenly that it depresses both players’ values. While Duke allowed over 50 fantasy points to running back Evan Hull in Week 2, the Blue Devils have been very good against the run so far, ranking 11th in rush play success rate. Again, competition faced must be considered here too, but that’s dramatic improvements from last season in the first year under a new staff. Battle of strengths on Saturday against Lance Leipold and his innovative rushing offense.
Best of the Rest – The players listed above account for over 70% of Kansas’ total production on offense so would not advise getting cute with any options beyond those.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU vs. SMU
Point-Spread: TCU -2.5
O/U Total: 70.5
Implied Score: TCU 36.5 – SMU 34
Weather: 89 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Max Duggan ($7,100) I am ready to be hurt again. We’re still sorting out the TCU running backs and wide receivers as of now, so we must lean on the QB here in Duggan, regardless of how gross it feels. Projections sit at over 27 fantasy points and Duggan has the highest QBR rating among P5 quarterbacks after his five-touchdown performance against Tarleton. Maybe he’s taken well to the Sonny Dykes passing system?
Fade – WR Taye Barber ($5,600) Second on the team in targets (7) and second among receivers in offensive snaps played, but I’ve seen this movie way too many times before. Averaged just 6.5 FPPG in 2021 with one performance over 20 fantasy points. 12 different TCU receivers have caught a pass already this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan Hudson ($3,000) The 4-star freshman saw his first extended playing time of the season against Tarleton, leading the team with five receptions on five targets and a touchdown. FWIW, Blake Nowell ($3,000) caught three passes on four targets and played double the snaps of Hudson at the same RWR alignment. Will have to check in on this pregame if you want to invest here.
Pivot Play – WR Quentin Johnston ($7,600) You know the GIF where the dude draws a clown on his face? That’s the feeling I have when creating a lineup with QJ in it. A projected Top 10 fantasy receiver entering the year, Johnston has posted 22 yards in each of the first two games. We’ll throw out the Tarleton matchup for now considering it was a blowout of epic proportions. Against Colorado, Johnston was targeted six times and did play the most snaps of any receiver. I still want to believe its possible that QJ can replicate what previous Sonny Dykes wide receivers have done in the past, averaging 69 receptions and nine touchdowns over the last eight seasons.
Best of the Rest – RB Kendre Miller ($7,700) Over the last eight seasons, Dykes’ RB1 has averaged just 13.9 rushing attempts per game. Miller is averaging 11 attempts per over the first two games. While Miller is the best of the bunch over the likes of Emari Demarcado ($5,000) and Emani Bailey ($3,900), there’s a chance we see all three get considerable reps in the backfield. SMU is allowing 24 FPPG to opposing RB1s through three games and were gashed by Roman Hemby last week, so we wouldn’t totally discount Miller.
Injury Notes – WR Quincy Brown ($3,000) Brown caught multiple touchdowns last week, but will be out multiple games due to injury per Dykes.
SMU:
Top Play(s) – WR Rashee Rice ($8,600) Rice has become a near-lock this season regardless of his pricing. topping 130 yards receiving in all three games this season. Rice is now second in the country with 45 targets behind only UTEP’s Tyrin Smith who has played one more game. To further exemplify Rice’s importance to the offense, his 39% target share is one of the highest marks in the country, with no other SMU receiver totaling more than 14 targets.
Fade – RB TJ McDaniel ($4,200) SMU heads into Saturday looking more from the running game after averaging just 3.6 YPC vs. Maryland last week. Of the three options in the backfield, McDaniel was a distant third in offensive snaps – on the field just 15% of the time – with only five attempts.
Bargain Bin – WR Austin Upshaw ($3,500) WR has been a mess for the Mustangs beyond Rice with multiple injuries to multiple starters. Don’t know exactly if starter Jordan Kerley suffered an injury or ineffective play but it was Upshaw who wound up playing 78% of the offensive snaps with two receptions and a touchdown. There was clear separation vs. Maryland with the top three receivers a step above the others in terms of playing time.
Pivot Play – WR Jake Bailey ($6,200) The Rice transfer immediately came back from injury to play 79 of the 102 total snaps, finishing second on the team with four receptions on five targets. Huge gap between the WR1 and WR2 here, but noticeable to me how Bailey was immediately integrated back into the fold over the other receivers. Have to think there will be opportunities here with a game total over 70.
Best of the Rest – The quarterback getting Rice the football hasn’t been half bad either as QB Tanner Mordecai ($7,800) is completing over 61% of his passes and already surpassed 1,000 yards in three weeks. We don’t have a great sense of how good or bad the TCU defense is considering they’ve played Tarleton and Colorado, but Mordecai easily has the highest floor of any quarterback on the slate considering game total, SMUs struggles to run the ball and
Injury Notes – WR Beau Corrales ($3,000) is practicing this week after injuring his shoulder in fall camp. TBD on if he plays or not, so unlikely to consider him after his first few days back on the football field.
Baylor vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: Iowa St -2.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Iowa St 24 – Baylor 21.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Richard Reese ($3,000) With McWilliams out another week, the expectation is that Reese will get a good chunk of the workload against the Cyclones after his career day with 156 yards and three scores on 19 attempts vs. Texas State. Best guess would be that Reese sees the most carries again on Saturday but want to throw some caution out there. (1) This is Iowa State, not Texas State, in the Big 12 opener. Would it shock you to see the Baylor staff lean on a veteran like Craig Williams? (2) Iowa State is allowing just 10.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far, having faced both Iowa and Ohio’s Sieh Bangura. Not exactly Bijan Robinson, but also not rollovers either.
Fade – WRs Don’t have a single receiver for Baylor projected at more than eight fantasy points this week. The Bears will have to throw to beat Iowa State on Saturday, so there’s a chance one of them pops. But I’ll let someone else take that chance on guessing who that is.
Bargain Bin – WR Gavin Holmes ($3,800) Wanted to signal out Holmes here because his viability is dependent on if Monaray Baldwin plays or not, considering both operate in the slot. Holmes had his best day of the year last week with three receptions on three targets and a touchdown. This is a longshot play, though, and there really is no need to roster any Baylor receivers.
Pivot Play – RB Craig Williams ($4,200) Again, we believe Reese will see the highest number of carries on Saturday if we were placing a wager. But wouldn’t surprise us to see the staff lean on a veteran like Squirrel Williams in an important conference game. We saw exactly that against BYU two weeks ago where Williams led the team with 17 attempts. Baylor’s offensive line, which returns four starters, is also coming off its best performance of the season last week. 3.6 non-garbage time line yards per carry is an absurd stat.
Best of the Rest – QB Blake Shapen ($5,200) I’d stay far, far away from Shapen and the Baylor passing game. Injuries, ineffective play at the wide receiver position, and facing an Iowa State defense that is allowing just 5.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s through two games. Hard pass.
Injury Notes – RB Taye McWilliams HC Dave Aranda stated this week that he believes McWilliams’ injury will take a bit longer to return and we should not expect to see him this week. TE Ben Sims and Monaray Baldwin are closer to full health and Aranda is hopeful they’ll play Saturday.
Iowa St:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Hutchinson ($6,700) Would imagine that Hutchinson appears in a number of optimal lineups considering his 37% team target share this season and tied for second in the country with 28 receptions and five touchdowns.
Fade – WR Jaylin Noel ($4,500) I thought that Noel would absorb the targets lost with Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen no longer on the team, but the sophomore receiver looks to be on pace for a similar stat-line from last season. Which is fine, but very low upside for a guy that catches everything within 10 yards of the LOS and has yet to top 30 receiving yards in a game this season. Noel needs heavy target volume to be productive and its just not happening yet.
Bargain Bin – QB Hunter Dekkers ($5,500) More decisions to make at quarterback this week with Dekkers at this low a pricing and a 21-point projection. There are so many cheap WRs in this slate that I don’t think we have to spend down on QBs in the $5k range, but I do think this is a matchup where Iowa State will be forced to throw the football. Baylor hasn’t exactly been stingy on the backend, allowing 30 fantasy points to Jaren Hall, and Layne Hatcher did complete over 60% of his throws against this secondary. Baylor is 36th in pass play success rate so far.
Pivot Play – RB Jirehl Brock ($4,900) Too cheap for a player projected at 19 fantasy points. Wonder if this was brought down by Brock’s seven carry outing against Ohio last week where the RB1 was not needed in a blowout scenario. Got 27 attempts vs. Iowa in a competitive game the week prior, which we expect this to be. Not to mention Brock’s usage in the passing game with 10 receptions in three games. Baylor is allowing just 10 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far, but usage + price means Brock is squarely in play.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: Clem -7.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Clem 31.5 – WF 24
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($6,700) Have yet to see what the Clemson backfield rotation looks like in a competitive matchup as the Tigers have blowout out their first three opponents. Hasn’t stopped Shipley from being productive with two touchdowns in each game. Do we see 20 carries this week? Probably not with the considerable depth the Tigers have behind him, but 15+ should be a reasonable expectation. Wake Forest is allowing 21 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far with both Re’Mahn Davis and Dae Dae Hunter topping 20 fantasy points.
Fade – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($6,700) DJU has done a better job at limiting turnovers, but there hasn’t been the substantial improvement to where we can confidently roster him on the road against a formidable opponent. In the mid-price range where he’ll see low ownership, but I’d rather spend up or down at the quarterback position this week. Just have to hope he isn’t vulturing TDs away from Shipley as DJU is getting around nine rushing attempts per game so far.
Bargain Bin – WR Antonio Williams ($3,000) The talented 4-star slot receiver saw the most offensive snaps of the season last week against Louisiana Tech and appears to be the primary option now over Brannon Spector. No Clemson receiver has more than 16% target share through three games, so even though the rotations should tighten up this week, Williams would be a pure dart throw.
Pivot Play – WR Beaux Collins ($5,800) On that note, Clemson receivers are far from a priority but Vegas is projecting we get four touchdowns from the Tigers this week. Maybe part of that comes from a dominant defense, along with Shipley, but someone has to catch the ball right? Collins is the leading target-getter (15) and a team-high three touchdowns. Imagine he’ll see less than 5% ownership in bigger GPPs. Collins dominated WF last year with 137 yards and a touchdown.
Best of the Rest – WR Joseph Ngata ($4,900) Ngata is second on the team in targets (13) and third among skill position players in offensive snaps played, so I suppose he’s somewhat in place. But has not performed up to expectations and there is a 5-star in Adam Randall who is breathing down his neck for starting job.
Injury Notes – WR Dacari Collins will be entering the transfer portal this week so he’s not an option.
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – QB Sam Hartman ($7,500) Clemson’s been good against the pass, but not as good as stopping the run, so I expect 40+ attempts from Hartman this week. Allowing 18 FPPG to opposing QBs, and that’s after facing Jeff Sims and Parker McNeil. Wake Forest is rotating so much these days at receiver that the top play has to be the guy getting them the ball. FWIW – Hartman has thrown just one touchdown in four career games vs. Clemson in his career.
Fade – RBs. Wake Forest averaged just 1.7 yards per carry on 21 attempts vs. Liberty last week as the Deacons continue to split carries between Justice Ellison and Christian Turner. Clemson is allowing just 7.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and rank 8th overall nationally in run defense. Easy fade here.
Bargain Bin – WR Ke’Shawn Williams ($4,400) Taylor Morin continues to out-snap Williams, but the latter was far more productive in the narrow win over Liberty last week with five receptions for 100+ yards on eight targets. Boom or bust selection that is probably too risky because of his shared reps in the slot with Morin.
Pivot Play – A.T. Perry ($7,000) Wake Forest’s WR coach commented this week that the plan is to continue rotating the WRs because of both depth and to keep the group fresh for later in the year. For that reason it would be tough to pull the trigger on Perry this week considering the matchup. Perry isn’t sharing reps with anyone at the RWR spot, but targets are being spread around far more than a year ago, with Perry garnering just 26% of the target share. Not been his usual self either with just a 46% conversion rate and three drops.
Best of the Rest – WR Donavon Greene ($6,300) Greene is another fade for me at his current pricing as he rotated in and out of the lineup with backup Jahmal Banks ($3,900) against Liberty, with the former looking like the better player with 6-55-2 on seven targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -17.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: UM 41 – MD 24.5
Weather: 55 degrees / 33% rain / 6 mph winds
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WR Rakim Jarrett ($6,100) Barring a Michigan collapse on offense, the Terps will have to pass to win this game. And we’d ride with the leading target-getter if choosing a Maryland receiver here. Jarrett likely will be lined up across from Mike Sainristil in the slot, a nickel cornerback that played wide receiver a year ago. The issue is Maryland’s surplus of options with five legitimate pass-catchers. Jarrett should see very low ownership as a result in GPPs.
Fade – RB Roman Hemby ($6,400) Mike Locksley running backs don’t get heavy volume and Hemby won’t average 9.8 yards per carry against this Michigan defense. We’ve already seen Hemby’s player props drop significantly this week from 64.5 to around 49 yards, so the bettors don’t see a path to success Saturday either.
Bargain Bin – TE Corey Dyches ($3,200) Slow start to the season, but Dyches was a player that we had projected inside the top 15 fantasy tight ends entering the year as he’s a very similar player to last year’s starter Chigoziem Okonkwo. Dyches had his best showing of the year vs. SMU, catching all six targets for 32 yards and a score. He’s now third on the team for the year with 13 targets.
Pivot Play – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($7,600) Game script will work in Tagovailoa’s favor here as a 17.5-point underdog. And this is the best collection of weapons he’s had at Maryland, facing what is ultimately an inexperienced (still talented) Michigan secondary that has three new starters. That said, these are exactly the type of games/environments that the Maryland passing game crumbled in last year. Tagovailoa averaged just 16 FPPG in the five games against Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State – all upper-echelon B1G schools.
Best of the Rest – WR Dontay Demus ($5,800) continues to see the most offensive snaps of any Maryland WR but continues to do nothing with them. Targeted just three times vs. SMU with one catch to show for it. WR Jeshaun Jones ($4,400) might be the best bang for your buck option as he’s second on the team in targets (14) and tied for the team lead in touchdowns (2) with Florida transfer Jacob Copeland ($3,900).
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($7,900) It’s a given at this point, especially with Donovan Edwards unlikely to play this week. Maryland has limited its first three opponents to under four yards a carry, but have faced the 63rd, 109th and 116th ranked rush offenses in the country. The Terps rank 52nd in rush play success rate so it’s a mediocre group.
Fade – WR Cornelius Johnson ($6,400) Hasn’t been a great start to the season for the senior receiver with just four catches on nine targets and a drop. Really the third or fourth option in the Michigan passing game which makes him unplayable at his pricing. Unlikely to get a Michigan receiver that breaks the slate anyways.
Bargain Bin – WR Roman Wilson ($3,800) That said, Wilson is probably one of my favorite plays of the slate and likely to be a forgotten man. Third on the team in targets (7) and is the lone Michigan pass-catcher with multiple TD receptions (2). Also leads the team at 5.9 yards per route run and is a big-play threat after the catch with 23.0 YAC/Rec.
Pivot Play – QB J.J. McCarthy ($7,700) How often over the years have we said that a Michigan quarterback is a great play in DFS or college fantasy in general? I doubt we see McCarthy run much with backup Cade McNamara now out multiple weeks due to injury. But his efficiency has been off the charts, completing 88% of his throws with three touchdowns. Maryland is 104th in pass defense overall, but their advanced metrics indicate a much better group than the high-level numbers indicate. Game script has played a major role with all three of Maryland’s opponents playing from behind. 13th in pass play success rate so far.
Best of the Rest – WR Ronnie Bell ($7,300) Seeing any Michigan receiver over $7k gives DFS players pause because they’re instilled with the belief it’s the same offense from past years. And its not drastically different, but the quarterback is. Bell has been the beneficiary, leading the Wolverines with 14 receptions on 17 targets, 15 of which have come in the last two games. He’ll see very little ownership is my guess at this price, but we have a Wolverines offense with upgraded QB play, projected to score over 40 points. Bell is in play.
Injury Notes – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,000) is questionable as of Wednesday writing this, but is close to a return in the coming week or two. There is smoke going around on the Michigan boards that TE Erick All ($4,800) may have suffered an injury that will shut him down. This is not definitive but would avoid as well. TE Luke Schoonmaker ($3,500) would start in his place.
Missouri vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: Aub -7.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Aub 29.5 – Mizzou 22
Weather: 78 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Dominic Lovett ($5,000) Luther Burden gets the headlines, but Lovett might be the actual WR1, and the numbers show it through three games. Team-high 16 receptions on 22 targets and had a career-high 132 yards and two scores last week vs. Abilene Christian. Good opportunity to take the $600 discount between the two receivers.
Fade – RBs The starting running back under Eli Drinkwitz has been such a staple in college fantasy the last eight seasons, averaging 104 yards per game. That could not be further from the case in 2022 where the Tigers’ leading rusher this season is quarterback Brady Cook. It’s clear Missouri doesn’t have a Tyler Badie in the backfield, but the offensive line has been atrocious, ranking 119th in stuff rate and 106th in line yards. Drinkwitz is making some personnel changes this week, but we’ll wait and see if that helps before rostering anyone.
Bargain Bin – WR Barrett Banister ($3,400) Snap counts have increased with each passing week and saw a team-high eight targets against Abilene Christian. Both Banister and Lovett play exclusively in the slot, so I’m not sure the eight targets should be considered the norm.
Pivot Play – WR Luther Burden ($5,600) Drinkwitz made it very public that the team intended on getting the 5-star recruit more looks, and the head coach stayed true to his word as Burden had a season-high seven targets, converting them all into receptions. Not sure if it was part of the game plan, but everything was closer to the line of scrimmage this week with an aDOT of just 5.0, resulting in Burden’s top performance of the year.
Best of the Rest – QB Brady Cook ($5,700) Slim chances I roster Brady Cook in any of my lineups, but a running quarterback that has hit 40 yards on the ground in each of the three games played this season AND leads his team in rushing gets my *slight* attention. Against Abilene Christian and Louisiana Tech, Cook is averaging 24.5 FPPG.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – RB Tank Bigsby ($6,000) Another “top play” by default. Bigsby is averaging 15 touches per game, is third on the team in targets (12) and faces a Missouri defense that is 62nd in rush play success rate. Nine carries for minimal yardage last week doesn’t inspire confidence, but maybe a new starting quarterback can open things up on the ground for Auburn (more on that below).
Fade – RB Jarquez Hunter ($5,200) If I’m spending $5,200 on a player in a GPP, I want them to at least have a shot at breaking the slate. And the only way this situation breaks that way is if Bigsby gets injured. While Hunter is averaging 15.3 FPPG, he’s getting out-touched 2-to-1.
Bargain Bin – QB Robby Ashford ($5,000) Decisions, decisions. A very risky play here for a quarterback that could not beat out T.J. Finley. But we have a “min-priced” quarterback who is a dynamic athlete and projected at 21.3 fantasy points this week. I’m not certain Ashford gets there, but that projection makes him a lock essentially at $5k. Auburn’s gotta score 29 points somehow, right? If Vegas is correct…
Pivot Play – WRs. Only other considerables for the Tigers would be the top two targets in the passing game with Ja’Varrius Johnson ($4,600) and Shedrick Jackson ($6,000) who combine for 38% of the team’s target share and are both averaging over 15 yards per reception. Unsure of why Jackson is priced ahead of Johnson, as the latter leads in both targets and catches.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – T.J. Finley ($5,700) is “sidelined” due to injury, leading to Ashford making his first career start. One of those situations where if Finley was performing like a Heisman contender, he’d be starting Saturday.
Central Michigan vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: Penn St -27.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Penn St 45 – CMU 17.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 1 mph winds
Central Michigan:
Top Play(s) – TE Joel Wilson ($3,900) Rarefied air for Joel Wilson being considered a top play. Where else in the country is the tight end considered the top play for a team? Georgia and Notre Dame, and that’s it right? Team leader in both targets (24) and receptions (16), while finding the end-zone in each of the last two games. OC Paul Petrino fed his tight end the last two years at Idaho, and the same thing is happening this season.
Fade – QB Daniel Richardson ($5,100) After his Week 1 explosion, Richardson has come back down to earth, completing under 50% of his passes the last two games and failing to score more than 18 fantasy points. Any chance of a let down after Penn State’s massive win against Auburn on the road last week? Nittany Lions rank 40th in pass play success rate and are allowing just 16.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s on the year.
Bargain Bin – WR Jalen McGaughy ($4,000) The former Ball State transfer has a case of the butterfingers with three of the team’s seven drops this season but is third in the CMU pecking order behind Wilson and Carriere. Second on the team in targets (22) but is converting on just 50% of those looks with only 11 receptions.
Pivot Play – Lew Nichols ($6,800) Likely won’t roster Nichols this week with a 17-point projection, but want to point out his Week 1 matchup vs. Central Michigan where he still ran it 26 times for 72 yards and a pair of scores, while also being a major factor in the passing game. CMU does rank 41st in line yards, but Nichols has been hit behind the LOS a bunch this season, with his YPC dropping to just 3.76 YPC. Penn State is a top 30 run defense.
Best of the Rest – WR Carlos Carriere ($4,800) is listed as OUT on DraftKings but is expected to play this week after getting dental work last Saturday. The former Maryland transfer posted five receptions on nine targets in each of the first two games and can be a matchup problem at 6-foot-5.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn St:
Top Play(s) – Nicholas Singleton ($6,400) Was only a matter of time before Singleton took over this backfield. Against Ohio was expected. But to dominate Auburn with 124 yards and two scores on just 10 carries just adds to his alure this week and moving forward. His value is boosted again this week with Keyvone Lee unlikely to play. FWIW – advanced stats still hate this offensive line, ranking 108th in stuff rate and 109th in line yards. Speaks to Singleton’s talent.
Fade – WRs not named Mitchell Tinsley. Maybe Parker Washington or KeAndre Lambert-Smith find the end-zone on Saturday – I’m sure plenty of Penn State players will against this secondary. But you’re not spending up to these prices for the WR2 and WR3 for the Nittany Lions. KLS leads the team with two drops and Washington’s value is capped because he plays in the slot. Not even worth trying to pivot against the field as we’re spending down at wide receiver this week anyways.
Bargain Bin – RB Kaytron Allen ($3,900) Why is Nick Singleton not ranked higher than he’s currently projected? Only 38% of the market share in the Penn State backfield is a big reason why. Keyvone Lee being out helps, but there’s another freshman in Kaytron Allen getting significant run and he’s coming off his best performance with 52 yards and two touchdowns on nine attempts. 7-10 carries is a lock.
Pivot Play – QB Sean Clifford ($8,300) Implied total of six touchdowns means everyone is an option for Penn State. Would imagine Clifford sees very low ownership as the highest-priced QB on the slate. The 22.7-point projection is baking into account the possible blowout scenario, so if you do think CMU can keep this game close, add another 6-7 points to Clifford’s projection. Central Michigan is allowing the most fantasy points in the country to opposing QB1s at 48.8 FPPG.
Best of the Rest – WR Mitchell Tinsley ($7,700) In a similar vein to Clifford, Tinsley is unlikely to see much ownership at his price but is the leading target-getter for the Nittany Lions with 21% share and a team-high two receiving touchdowns. While the WR1, it doesn’t appear we have a Jahan Dotson-like scenario here as the one guy dominates the touches. Clifford is spreading the ball around, and probably a viable option to play the Penn State QB naked if need be.
Injury Notes – RB Keyvone Lee is questionable and wouldn’t be surprised if he sat against a MAC opponent to allow for the freshmen to take center stage.
Florida vs. Tennessee:
Point-Spread: Tenn -10.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Tenn 36.5 – UF 26
Weather: 80 degrees / 5% rain / 13 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Richardson ($6,800) Have a feeling the ownership numbers for Richardson are going to be surprisingly higher this week as DFS players hope the redshirt sophomore rekindles the magic we saw Week 1 against Utah. A complete non-factor in the running game is not a recipe for success for Richardson or this Florida offense, and has people concluding that he did get dinged up early in the game against Kentucky a few weeks back. The Vols are only allowing 14.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season but have played John Paddock, DJ Irons and Kedon Slovis. Not exactly murderer’s row there.
Fade – WRs Xzavier Henderson leads the team with 14 receptions on 18 targets but everything is close to the LOS, averaging 6.5 yards per catch with an aDOT of just 6.6. Justin Shorter isn’t far behind at 16 targets but has only converted six of those into receptions. Would lean Ricky Pearsall if choosing anyone here, as he’s third with 11 targets at $3,900 and starting to come around after missing most of fall camp, but there’s not a lot of separation at all between the top three receivers. And Florida doesn’t pass enough to where any of them will receive significant targets.
Bargain Bin – RB Trevor Etienne ($3,200) The hope here is that the coaching staff relinquishes Nay’quan Wright’s role in the running game, allowing for more carries to Montrell Johnson and talented true freshman Trevor Etienne who has now found the end-zone twice in the last two weeks. Still a three-way split with all three backs garnering between 35-38% of the backfield market share, but I think we’ll start to see some separation here with the top two.
Pivot Play – RB Montrell Johnson ($6,600) Unlikely you can afford Johnson at this price, particularly that he’s in a timeshare in the backfield. Should it be a timeshare? This is Billy Napier’s MO, but Johnson has been *by far* the best running back on the team, averaging over nine yards a carry with two touchdowns. Florida’s offensive line has been the best positional group on offense for the Gators by a wide margin.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaylen Wright ($5,300) Even if Small does play, Jaylen Wright is now the team’s new RB1 regardless of what the depth chart says. Has garnered 20 more carries than Small has this season and averaging 5.1 yards per carry to just 3.8 for Small. Florida will likely be without their top linebacker and defensive star in Ventrell Miller, and that is a bad sign for a group that is 13th out of 14 teams in run defense in the SEC. The Gators are also 120th in rush play success rate. Tennessee will have just two scholarship running backs available Saturday, and now I’m talking myself into Jaylen Wright more and more.
Fade – RB Jabari Small ($7,000) See above.
Bargain Bin – WR Ramel Keyton ($4,200) Following the Tillman injury against Akron, it was Keyton who stepped into the starting lineup and wound up catching a 57-yard touchdown. The price isn’t substantially higher for Bru McCoy ($5,000) who’s third on the team with 12 targets, so I’d rather spend up there than roster Keyton personally. But he comes a dart throw should Tillman be out.
Pivot Play – WR Jalin Hyatt ($6,800) The work that Hyatt put in this offseason has translated to the field as he’s now second on the team in targets (22) and first in receptions (18). Career day against Akron with 5-166-2 and becomes the primary target should Tillman be out. While slightly better at defending the pass, Florida is 71st in pass play success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Hendon Hooker ($8,100) Think this could be an opportunity for Hooker to showcase his legs against the Gators, who have had troubles defending the RPO early in the year. Cam Rising rushed for 91 yards on seven attempts in the opener. Florida did shut down Will Levis, but Gerry Bohanon ran wild last week with over 100 yards on 15 carries.
Injury Notes – Cedric Tillman and Jabari Small are questionable with injury. HC Josh Heupel, as most college coaches do, gave us some worthless quotes during his Thursday presser that provided zero insight. For Tillman, it’s been reported as a high ankle sprain, so even if he plays, it could be at less than 100%. Small feels like the likelier candidate to play as he did practice on Tuesday.
Texas vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: Tex -7
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Tex 34 – Texas Tech 27.5
Weather: 89 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Bijan Robinson ($8,300) Duh. Posted 20-183-3 last week in the win over UTSA despite not being at 100% health. Couldn’t tell, right? We now get Bijan in a more competitive matchup, meaning all four quarters is likely. Robinson transcends any defense he faces, but to paint the full picture, Texas Tech does have the best rush defense in the Big 12 through three games, allowing just 2.3 YPC.
Fade – QB Hudson Card ($6,700) Wouldn’t even bother here. Card was proficient last week, completing 65% of his throws for 161 yards and a touchdown. That doesn’t get it done from a fantasy perspective, and now gets a more difficult matchup where the Red Raiders are actually 9th in pass success rate defensively.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,400) Production has taken a nose dive after the first week with just four receptions and nine yards the last two games. Sanders still has the most offensive snaps played this season by any non-offensive linemen on Texas, so he’s on the field plenty, just hurt by the drop-off at quarterback. Extreme longshot.
Pivot Play – RB Roschon Johnson ($5,200) The Texas OL had its best performance of the season against UTSA as the Longhorns rushed for 299 yards as a team, while only throwing 23 passes. The likely strategy again vs. Tech this weekend, trying to avoid having Hudson Card win the game for them. Johnson rushed for 81 yards on 11 attempts and added three catches and a score on five targets as Texas heavily utilized the quick pass screen game.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,300) Worthy is due for a big game, right? Value has been minimized because of playing with a backup quarterback, but the stud sophomore has led the Longhorns in targets in all three games this season. While Tech is 9th in pass play success rate, they’re also 129th in pass play explosiveness allowed. Sounds ripe for the picking with Worthy whose aDOT has been over 20.0 in all three weeks.
Injury Notes – QB Quinn Ewers is making the trip to Lubbock and insiders are indicating he could play if forced into action. But all signs point to Card making the start again Saturday.
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Jerand Bradley ($4,000) Has been a disappointment since Week 1, but if DraftKings is going to continue throwing Bradley out at these prices, we’re going to keep considering. Bradley continues to lead the team with 21% target share – next closest is 12% – but also leads the team with two drops and has just a 52% conversion rate. Still, just too cheap for a guy that averages nine targets a game.
Fade – QB Donovan Smith ($7,000) I’m very risk-averse when compiling my DFS lineups so if there is any threat of the backup quarterback playing, I will likely avoid. And we have that situation brewing in Lubbock where Smith has tossed five interceptions in the last two games, including a pair of pick-sixes. Whether it happens or not, who knows, but Behren Morton has begun to receive some first-team reps in practice. One or two more turnovers and Smith could get the hook.
Bargain Bin – WR Nehemiah Martinez ($3,000) Martinez splits reps with Price in the slot, so he’s not going to see a full offensive workload, but has been heavily targeted when on the field with nine receptions in the last two games. We saw last year with Malachi Corley at WKU where the second slot receiver can be very effective.
Pivot Play – RB Tahj Brooks ($5,400) As much as OC Zach Kittley would like to throw the football, he simply can’t fully run his offense right now because of how Smith’s playing, to lack of protection along the offensive line, etc. A multitude of factors as to why the offense is struggling. Similar to Texas, don’t be shocked if Tech takes the ball out of Smith’s hands this week and attempts to establish the running game. Easier said than done, though, as Tech’s offensive line has been bad as we stated earlier, and the Longhorns are 24th nationally in rush play success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Myles Price ($5,400) Doubled his offensive snap counts from the first two weeks against NC State, finishing with 4-50-1 on six targets. Not as effective as we thought Price would be in the Kittley offensive scheme but is still the best WR on the team. Loic Fouonji and Trey Cleveland rotate at the secondary outside spot opposite Bradley.
Injury Notes – n/a
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
Point-Spread: UNC -1.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: UNC 28.5 – ND 27
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – TE Michael Mayer ($5,900) Wash, rinse, repeat. Quick, as of writing this Michael Mayer’s prop was still sitting at four receptions when we have him projected for seven. Unload the funds.
Fade – WRs. Some bias in the projections towards last week where neither Lorenzo Styles ($4,900) nor Braden Lenzy ($4,600) had more than 30 yards receiving on a combined nine targets. That said, just one double-digit scoring performance between the two receivers, and they’re effectiveness is nullified if Drew Pyne continues to have an aDOT of just 2.6 yards on his passes.
Bargain Bin – QB Drew Pyne ($5,400) So many punt options this week at the quarterback position, with Pyne being possibly my least favorite of the bunch because of what I saw with my own two eyes last week. That said, this is one of the worst defenses in all of college football that is allowing the second most FPPG in the country to opposing quarterbacks. And Pyne did show improvement following the infamous Tommy Rees blowup, completing 14 of his last 15 for 131 yards and two scores.
Pivot Play – RB Chris Tyree ($5,600) Finally we saw Chris Tyree utilized as we expected at the onset of the season, and it really didn’t have much to do with his 17 rushing attempts. The junior running back had a season-high five receptions on five targets, including a 21-yard touchdown. Rees made it a point last week to get Tyree more involved in the game plan, and Marcus Freeman threw praise towards Tyree’s versatility again this week. 22 touches possible again?
Best of the Rest – RB Audric Estime ($5,100) Estime continues to be the lead back in-between the tackles and had his best performance against Cal with 76 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries while also adding three receptions as a receiver out of the backfield. The secondary has gotten much of the heat for UNC, but the Heels also rank 91st in rush play success rate defensively so the Irish should be able to attack them on the ground as well.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Drake Maye ($6,900) I’m playing it cautiously with Maye this week as this total has dropped from 60.5 at the onset of the week, now to 55.5. And this will be the first P5 school (but not really because ND is pompous and wants to remain an independent) that Maye will have faced this season. Notre Dame’s defensive front could give Maye some problems, ranking 78th in the country in pressures allowed while the Irish are 14th in QB pressures. The Irish secondary ranks 23rd in pass play success rate and 15th in explosiveness. It’s a strong group.
Fade – WRs beyond Downs and Paysour. We outline our prediction below for how the North Carolina receiver rotation will shake out. I’d expect one of Gavin Blackwell or J.J. Jones to get booted from the rotation, and both are in a price range that deserve zero consideration.
Bargain Bin – WR Kobe Paysour ($4,100) If interested in rostering Paysour this week, I’d be checking pregame as to how the receivers are lining up. The sophomore has been fantastic in place of the injured Josh Downs with 13 receptions on 14 targets in the last two games, finding the end-zone in each. Problem is he plays in the slot, same designation as Downs. I believe Paysour cross-trained at multiple spots during fall camp and the outside receivers are far from world-beaters so wouldn’t surprise us if they shift Paysour to another spot with Downs returning.
Pivot Play – RB Omarion Hampton ($5,500) D.J. Jones continues to play more offensive snaps, but we all know who the top running back is for UNC. Hampton has found the end-zone in each of his first three games, topping 100 yards on the ground twice. The Irish are only allowing 15.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but are 120th in rush play success rate defensively as teams have found success on the ground against them.
Best of the Rest – TE Bryson Nesbit ($3,900) Just doesn’t play the snaps to warrant much consideration on a main slate, particularly with receivers priced at or below his salary. That’s not to say Nesbit hasn’t been productive, averaging 13 FPPG as the team’s third best receiving option.
Injury Notes – WR Josh Downs ($7,800) Obviously the best player UNC has on offense, but what’s his workload like Saturday? Downs will be on the field as he posted on Twitter that “he’s back.” We’ll check Saturday morning to see if he’s considered full-go.
Minnesota vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: Minn -3
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: Minn 27 – MSU 24.5
Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Minnesota:
RB Mohamed Ibrahim ($9,600) The senior running back is deservedly the highest-priced player on the entire slate as Minnesota is the No. 2 rushing offense in the country. While last week made sense against Colorado to bite the bullet and spend up, I will not be doing so against Michigan State. MSU is allowing just 11.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far this season and are No. 2 in rush play success rate. QB Tanner Morgan ($6,100) is never under consideration, but perhaps we could look towards one of the receivers against his horrid Michigan State secondary. WR Dylan Wright ($3,500) likely takes over as the WR1 in place of Chris Autman-Bell who suffered a season-ending injury. Just four receptions and eight games, but Wright is a big-bodied, lanky receiver at 6-foot-3 with an aDOT of 14.4. He’s most capable of replicating CAB’s production and MSU will give up big plays. Allowed 11 passes of 15 yards or more to Washington last week.
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – WR Keon Coleman ($5,900) Don’t think Tom Izzo will see Coleman on the MSU basketball court any time soon. In place of the injured Jayden Reed, Coleman was the lone bright spot vs. Washington with nine receptions for 116 yards and a pair of touchdowns. If even Reed does suit up, we’ve seen the Michigan State offense support two receivers as recently as last year, along with Jalen Nailor in 2021. Minnesota is 113th in pass play explosiveness allowed.
Fade – RB Jalen Berger ($5,300) MSU is going to have to throw the ball to win this game because they do not have the edge in the trenches. The Spartans offensive line has played terribly this season and the Gophers are allowing just 4.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far this season. Minnesota’ run defense isn’t “that” dominant, ranking in the top 40 in rush play success rate, but they should be able to limit the MSU ground game.
Bargain Bin – QB Payton Thorne ($6,200) Bargain relatively speaking as Thorne is one of several viable punt options at the quarterback position this week. We don’t believe that Thorne will throw the ball 42 times as he did against Washington, but game-plan needs to involve a heavy dosage of the passing game to beat the Gophers. 18.7-point projection probably doesn’t suggest starting him unless he was $5,200.
Pivot Play – TE Daniel Barker ($4,500) Tight end is not usually a high-target position in OC Jay Johnson’s offensive scheme, but the Illinois transfer was the secondary option behind Coleman last Saturday with 7-69-0 on nine targets. Anomaly or what we should expect moving forward? His three targets in the two games prior probably lean towards the former.
Best of the Rest – WR Tre Mosley ($6,200) Too pricey for me at $6,200 but would get a value boost if Reed were to sit again. Third on the team in targets (11) and has found the end-zone once in each of the first three games.
Injury Notes – We found out the day of the game that Jayden Reed ($6,600) did not travel with the team to Washington last week. MSU doesn’t have great football coverage so we won’t find out until Saturday morning about his status.
Indiana vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cincy -16.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Cincy 37 – Ind 20.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 10% rain / 8 mph winds
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Cam Camper ($5,600) The former junior college transfer is now third in the country in targets (43) behind only SMU’s Rashee Rice and UTEP’s Tyrin Smith…who has also played an extra game. We know the volume will be there, seeing at least 11 targets in each game played. While Camper’s 43 targets in three games are impressive, he’s only converting them into receptions 53.5% of the time due to his quarterback’s inaccuracy throwing the football.
Fade – RB Shaun Shivers ($6,100) This is not the matchup to play an Indiana running back. Cincinnati is allowing just 11.1 FPPG to opposing running backs, limiting Arkansas’ Raheim Sanders to his lowest output of the year. The Bearcats are 6th in rush play success rate and 12th in limiting rush play explosiveness. Indiana’s OL is average at best at run blocking.
Bargain Bin – TE A.J. Barner ($3,400) Indiana’s top three pass-catchers make up 63% of the total team target share, with Barner sitting third with 16 targets. Could be interesting considering on a per game basis, Cincinnati has allowed the second most fantasy points in the country to opposing TE1s.
Pivot Play – QB Connor Bazelak ($6,000) I know, I know, this is insanity, right? I really can’t suggest this as a legitimate option given I will have Bazelak in exactly zero of my lineups. BUT, I can make the argument for it. This is not the same Cincinnati secondary it was a year ago, ranking 74th in pass play success rate and 116th in explosiveness allowed. While Bazelak is wildly inaccurate with the football, the Hoosiers are seventh in the country in pass attempts per game at 45.3. They’ll be throwing it again vs. this Cincinnati defense.
Best of the Rest – WR D.J. Matthews ($5,700) Second on the team with 15 receptions, averaging eight targets per game. Matthews’ yards per reception and 13.4 aDOT are the highest of his career.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – RB Charles McClelland ($6,100) As much as we want Corey Kiner to happen, it’s hard to sit McClelland right now after topping 100 yards with two scores last week against Miami (Ohio). Now averaging over six yards a carry, there is some credit to be given to the Cincinnati OL which is 10th in stuff rate and 7th in line yards.
Fade – RB Corey Kiner ($5,000) Mark my words – we will have a Corey Kiner breakout game at some point this season. Maybe this week? But wouldn’t bet on it, as McClelland doubled Kiner’s offensive snaps a week ago. Still found the end-zone in the win over Miami (Ohio) but isn’t seeing the volume to deserve contemplation of a lineup spot.
Bargain Bin – WR Nick Mardner ($3,800) The former Hawaii transfer saw a season-high in offensive snaps and targets last Saturday, while finding the end-zone on a beautiful 21-yard reception. That potentially could signal Mardner’s increasing comfortability in the Cincinnati offense and a more significant role moving forward.
Pivot Play – WR Tyler Scott ($7,200) CJ Verdell. Marvin Mims. Tyler Scott. Players I’ve never guessed on the correct week in DFS…and yes it is a guessing game when it comes to these certain players. We are seeing Cincinnati throw the ball around a bit more with Ben Bryant, though, and he’s locked into his favorite target as Scott is now averaging over seven targets a game, finding the end-zone twice in the last two weeks. Scott’s speed can test this Indiana secondary that has allowed 17 plays of 20 yards or more.
Best of the Rest – QB Ben Bryant ($7,200) Thought there was a chance we would see more Evan Prater last week, but the Eastern Michigan transfer played the entirety of the game, completing 74% of his throws for 337 yards and two scores. Indiana’s secondary ranks 105th in pass play success rate, allowing 29.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Probably not a ton of upside here with Bryant as a non-runner, but like the floor he should provide at a relatively low cost.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon vs. Washington State
Point-Spread: Oregon -6.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Oregon 32 – Wazzu 25.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – QB Bo Nix ($5,900) Projection of 26.2 fantasy points at $5,900 for a quarterback is almost “lock” territory in DFS. Nix has been one of the best fantasy players in the country the last two games, averaging 35 FPPG and five touchdowns in each week. There are some concerns here that have me nervous of locking Nix in. Home – Away splits for Nix in his career are VERY noticeable, with a 5-8 record, completing 55% of his passes and just 192.5 yards per game. Washington State’s defense has also ben exceptional to begin the year, ranking 4th in pass play success rate and just 18.8 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. The Cougars have not been tested yet either, though, through the air.
Fade – WR Dont’e Thornton ($5,000) Not worth the pricing considering he’s splitting snaps right now with Kris Hutson at the RWR position. There are better, cheaper Oregon WRs at play.
Bargain Bin – RB Mar’keise Irving ($3,400) Wazzu has been outstanding against the run this season, ranking 28th nationally, allowing just 90.7 yards per game on the ground. And unlike the secondary which has been untested, Washington State succeeded against the likes of Braelon Allen already. Oregon does have an experienced offensive line but has not played up to its standard just yet as they’re 31st in line yards and 60th in stuff rate. The former Minnesota transfer should get between 10-12 carries on Saturday – more if Cardwell doesn’t play – and is averaging more than six yards per attempt.
Pivot Play – n/a
Best of the Rest – TE Terrance Ferguson ($4,000) The team’s primary option once it enters the red-zone. Nine receptions on 11 targets, four of which has resulted in touchdowns. WR Troy Franklin ($5,200) has established himself as the team’s go-to weapon on the outside, converting his 15 targets into 15 receptions, tallying 84 yards in each of the last two games. UCLA transfer Chase Cota ($3,500) is third on the team in targets but leads all receivers in offensive snaps played.
Injury Notes – RB Byron Cardwell is questionable, but HC Dan Lanning said he’s “hopeful” the sophomore back will be in the lineup Saturday.
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – WR Donovan Ollie ($3,500) Might be the most popular play on Saturday on DK aside from Bijan Robinson. Too cheap for a player that leads his team in targets (27) and receptions (19), coming off a season-high 7-82-2 performance against Colorado State.
Fade – WR Robert Ferrel ($3,000) Renard Bell returning from injury this week means Ferrel is back to the bench after his first appearance of the season against the Rams. He’s third in the pecking order among slot receivers behind Bell and Lincoln Victor.
Bargain Bin – QB Cameron Ward ($5,000) Of the punt plays at QB, this might be the most difficult? A 19-point projection doesn’t scream instant play, but Ward and this entire offense seems to be growing in confidence and rapport since the onset of the year. Ward is now completing 65% of his throws with eight touchdowns on the year, facing an Oregon defense that is 121st in pass play success rate and allowing over 34 FPPG to opposing QB1s. That is not just Stetson Bennett either as Jaren Hall also topped 30 fantasy points last week.
Pivot Play – RB Nakia Watson ($4,600) Run defense is the strength of the Oregon defense, ranking 33rd in rush play success rate and 30th in explosiveness. Modest projection for Watson at just 14 fantasy points so unlikely to roster him much, but you can make the one argument in favor of the senior running back. Watson accounts for 63% of the market share in the Wazzu backfield, and he’s also performed well against an elite defense already in Wisconsin earlier in the year.
Best of the Rest – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($4,600) Stribling won’t see much ownership as everyone will flock to Ollie and the price savings, but the 6-foot-3 sophomore has played well in three games. 83% conversion rate on his 17 targets with a team-high three touchdowns and zero drops. Could also be a strong pivot selection.
Injury Notes – n/a
